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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310
New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country
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Is it past Watford?
On the other hand, this does fit in my with my latest prediction (partially stolen from Innocent Abroad) of the Tories getting an overall majority without even increasing their voteshare, or perhaps even dropping, from 2010.
Lab 2010 vote maintained at 284.
So weighted Con/Lab 2010 = 312/284 = 1.099 - when should be 1.017.
So Con overstated by 8% absolute votes. Take 8% off Con = 8% * 39 = 3. Would mean Con 1% behind - still very good indeed.
Be a man! Face up to them. ;-)
(Think I'll slip away now. Nite all.)
I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.
A very common problem with phone polls is finding enough in the younger age groups.
I'm not sure whether Survation call mobiles.
His last batch found a 2010 LD to CON swing of just 2%
All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.
I think they'd need to be threatening more than just the marginals, wouldn't they? They would need to be ousting the likes of Ed Davey and Vince Cable.
Or even the NE.
Really if Labour are struggling here it is not looking good.
Would make Middlesbrough S & East Cleveland a tight marginal too.
@nicholaswatt: Margaret Thatcher turned on EU in embittered old age when she spoke total nonsense Ken Clarke tells #GuardianLive
Last time out Sept 2014 (and 2010):
LAB 38 (+1.8), CON 23 (-3.1), LD 7 (-13.1), PC 13 (+1.6), UKIP 14 (+11.6)
Only problem with your bet is Con get approx 320 seats - you lose your bet and Con do a deal with DUP so there is (effectively) a Con majority Government. So you lose both ways!
Save the British digestive!
Ashcroft June 26 - 4 July:....LAB 38 CON 35
Survation Nov 6-12:............LAB 36.5 CON 39
I'm thinking it's possible some of the remaining Lib Dems will go to the Tories next year, strange as it sounds. The polls on the issues show that the Lib Dem voters are pretty well in line with the Tories' economic policies. In fact, I think it's probably more worthwhile for the Tories to go for some of them rather than the anti-austerity, anti-outoftouchposhboys UKIP voters.
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4898062/rochester-and-strood-by-election-2014-index
Stockton S was an unexpected Con gain in 1987, and they held it in 1992 also.
Mind, saying that, I wouldn't put anything past the footballers' wives Yarm set and the Ingleby Barwick Mondeo owners.
What next? Lib Dems ahead in Redcar?
Ralph Wilson Stadium is under 4 feet of snow. The Bills have a game on Sunday. Because of the driving ban players can't meet or have practices. The call has gone out for diggers needed.
They will pay $10 an hour and you will get game tickets. What a deal.
Curiously Buffalo Airport received only 4 inches of snow.
It's starting to warm up here. By the weekend we wil be back in the 60s.
I live nearby
In Clacton they split 5:4 for Labour with Ashcroft
In Rochester poll it's 10:7 for the Tories over Labour.
In Nuneaton they split for the Tories ahead of Labour too.
Does this mean Libs are piling in behind Labour in seats Labour already hold?
That is a BOLD statement.
It does make the commentary on many of the Ashcroft polls rather different.
Surely you don't mean the character from Airplane?
Yes - and don't call be Shirley.
That being said, I find myself vacillating wildly on what I think the LibDems will do in 2015. On the one hand, they've been marooned in the polls, really struggling to get out of the 7-9% range, with one (admittedly unweighted, on-line) poll showing them at 5%. If they can't get above 10%, then no amount of 'voter concentration' will help them.
On the other hand, the last two months has seen barely a week go by without a LibDem by-election gain - something that was practically unheard of in the previous four years of this parliament. Of course, they're coming off a low level, but this does suggest that the activist base has not been completely destroyed, and seems to show that people (locally at least) are willing to put 'x's next to LibDem candidates names.
I also note that in the locals this year and last year, they 'won' the council elections in a large number of their seats (Eastleigh, Portsmouth South, and most of the London seats where they're facing the Tories), which suggests - again - that tactical voting is alive and well.
So: here's my totally crap forecast. If the LibDems can drag themselves back to 12-14% in the polls, then they'll do 'fine', and get 30-35 MPs elected. On the other hand, below 10%, it'll be less than a dozen MPs, and could well be 6-8.
If I were a betting man, I'd reckon the former scenario is slightly more likely than the latter. But only slightly.
What this also shows is a 4 way fragmentation on the left (counting UKIP as left) in this constituency.
Thus the order of the day is heterogeneity, and we face an electoral landscape where the great average movements of Liberal battalions behind their dear Red leader occurs in a process of combined and uneven development - combined with the sounds of marching going hither and thither in all directions and all places. All for want of a Sergeant Major with the authority and fine voice* to rally the troops to the standard.
The great irony being that Conservatives of all kinds have long railed against diversity, preaching of the merits of national cohesiveness, but it is this very diversity that, Survation suggest, will carry them aloft to victory in the bright spring days that are to come.
* Are any MPs known to be singers? Were any of them asked by Geldof to chip in for the latest group project?
Culture is a bit funny like that. Pervasive.
Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.
Judge for yourself....
http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger
So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?
The vote wasn't binding so no More than I am likely to ever meet as a normal person
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mansion-tax-london-mps-call-for-rethink-as-labour-endures-taxing-time-9871379.html
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLjBJPi1Jw
However due to the night time, a more appropriate video is needed this time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WXVaChA3Q0
The effect that you are hypothesising, that may save the Lib Dems, is not going to show itself in a National Opinion Poll, where the relevant slice of the electorate is represented by about a dozen people, at best.
If the Lib Dems can hold on to very reluctant tactical votes against the Tories then they will hold onto about 30-35 MPs and add a few percentage points to their national polling scores - but there's no reason to expect that this will show up in the national opinion polls. There will be a lot of late decisions made in the polling booth -just look at the undecided numbers for the Lib Dems, and many of those who don't admit to the pollsters that they are undecided may still well change their mind.
Once you drop below that though, the votes have to come from their better-performing areas because there simply aren't any to realistically come from elsewhere, and at that point their MPs would start dropping like leaves on the first frost of autumn.
So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?
The vote wasn't binding so no More than I am likely to ever meet as a normal person
You've no idea then, and just assume there's an infestation. How funny.
@GuidoFawkes: Ed the Unready, Uncounselled, Ill-Advised, a Leader Surrounded by Fools http://t.co/J0VPpI29Q8
Thus, in my hour of torment, I am self-medicating with delicious liquor and only po-faced humourless righties would be foolish enough to take me seriously. Begone fiend!
Dave crying wolf, is there a by-election tomorrow?
Another front page story on DT adds fuel to this morning's fires.
Actually, although I wish UKIP as many MPs as they can get without costing me money from a bet (so no more than 5), I'd actually prefer a Con win tomorrow for entertainment value. UKIP would have come a close second no doubt, which would by normal measures a good result, but would bound to be somewhat deflated given how easy a win it has looked at times, and the loyalist Tories are doing what they can to prepare for a very bad day, and seeing their shock and joy would be fun, as well as Labour having to refine their message from how poorly the Tories did in losing thanks to a defection, see how weak they are, to one of showing how close it was and how pathetic it is that Cameron can barely hold onto what was a safe seat.
Edit:Actually, scratch that - the most amazing outcome would the LDs retaining their deposit. Celebratory fireworks would be called for.
O/T Danny Finkelstein on his old boss John Major 'They did not listen to him then, they must listen to him now'
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4271591.ece
To be fair - pretty much everyone here calls it the British Open.
I did say earlier on today that it was treason season straight after Rochester.
Front page of the Guardian has Reckless saying two more Tories set to defect.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B21iMILIUAAGiWc.png
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless
Better get your traitorous pig-dog 12-bore out and primed in case any fools do jump ship!
Especially when the polish bloke who has been living in Rochester for 9 years get that they interviewed speaks English like he's been here 9 days
In UKIP challenger seats, I'd expect this to be pronounced unless Labour are dumb enough to believe that UKIP are helping them as opposed to stealing their WWC vote.