Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S wh

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    OK, so the weighting may be suspect - but hey, it's worth celebrating that they found any Tories in the north!
  • Surely that Kay Burley tweet should have been saved for Friday night.
  • Time to dust off "too close to call", I think?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited November 2014

    Time to dust off "too close to call", I think?

    I suspect that may be the order of the day on a large swathe of seats for the next six months....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    These quick shifting threads are making my head ache, are you trying to get me giddy even before I get to DD on Friday? Thats if I turn up.
  • Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?
  • What's fascinating about the poll numbers is the almost exact symmetry, with Con and Lab retention figures of 53%, undecided of 31-2% and 15% lost to other parties (including exactly 3.3% lost to each other!).
  • Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?

    It is in the desolate North.
  • Where's your Lib Dem firewall now Ed?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Eek-- and the North of England is supposed to be one of Labour's saving graces since they're in trouble in Wales, doing poorly in the South, patchy at best in the Midlands, and let's not even talk about Scotland.

    On the other hand, this does fit in my with my latest prediction (partially stolen from Innocent Abroad) of the Tories getting an overall majority without even increasing their voteshare, or perhaps even dropping, from 2010.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited November 2014
    But Con 2010 vote has been weighted down from 357 to 312?

    Lab 2010 vote maintained at 284.

    So weighted Con/Lab 2010 = 312/284 = 1.099 - when should be 1.017.

    So Con overstated by 8% absolute votes. Take 8% off Con = 8% * 39 = 3. Would mean Con 1% behind - still very good indeed.
  • MikeK said:

    These quick shifting threads are making my head ache, are you trying to get me giddy even before I get to DD on Friday? Thats if I turn up.

    Oh Mike, don't tell me you are going to be put off by fear of all those rough Tory types crowing over the Rochester result?

    Be a man! Face up to them. ;-)
  • Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?

    It is in the desolate North.
    Oh. Doesn't matter then.

    (Think I'll slip away now. Nite all.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    It does suggest His Lordship's marginal polling might now be past its sell by date....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.
  • MikeL said:

    But Con 2010 vote has been weighted down from 357 to 312?

    Lab 2010 vote maintained at 284.

    So weighted Con/Lab 2010 = 312/284 = 1.099 - when should be 1.017.

    So Con overstated by 8% absolute votes. Take 8% off Con = 8% * 39 = 3. Would mean Con 1% behind - still very good indeed.

    The big weighting changes due to the considerable over-sampling of the 55+ group. See in the panel. 371 to 565.

    A very common problem with phone polls is finding enough in the younger age groups.

    I'm not sure whether Survation call mobiles.

  • Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?

    It is in the desolate North.
    The blasted heath where we do fracking.
  • Danny565 said:

    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    So you think that the Lord Ashcroft LD-CON seat polling is wrong? Any reason for this?

    His last batch found a 2010 LD to CON swing of just 2%

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?

    It's the other end of the Stockton - Darlington rail line of early train fame.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074
    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    Where is Stockton?

    Is it past Watford?

    It is in the desolate North.
    The blasted heath where we do fracking.
    Surrey?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    I think they'd need to be threatening more than just the marginals, wouldn't they? They would need to be ousting the likes of Ed Davey and Vince Cable.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    edited November 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Eek-- and the North of England is supposed to be one of Labour's saving graces since they're in trouble in Wales, doing poorly in the South, patchy at best in the Midlands, and let's not even talk about Scotland.

    On the other hand, this does fit in my with my latest prediction (partially stolen from Innocent Abroad) of the Tories getting an overall majority without even increasing their voteshare, or perhaps even dropping, from 2010.


    Or even the NE.
    Really if Labour are struggling here it is not looking good.

    Would make Middlesbrough S & East Cleveland a tight marginal too.
  • Hey folks. Don't be misled! Despite the cunning use of the descriptor "South" in the constituency name, Stockton South is actually in The North. As we all know the dastardly Tories have a devil of a time winning seats in The North and so I am sure that the aberration of a Conservative MP hailing from a seat north of the Wash-Bristol Channel line will soon be rectified.
  • It does suggest His Lordship's marginal polling might now be past its sell by date....

    Clearly things have moved on since June but the overall picture in this poll very close to what Lord A found in Stockton S then.
  • Expect the loons to start burning effigies of Ken Clarke

    @nicholaswatt: Margaret Thatcher turned on EU in embittered old age when she spoke total nonsense Ken Clarke tells #GuardianLive
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    since they're in trouble in Wales,

    Next ITV/YouGov poll specifically on Wales is published early December.

    Last time out Sept 2014 (and 2010):

    LAB 38 (+1.8), CON 23 (-3.1), LD 7 (-13.1), PC 13 (+1.6), UKIP 14 (+11.6)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Hey folks. Don't be misled! Despite the cunning use of the descriptor "South" in the constituency name, Stockton South is actually in The North. As we all know the dastardly Tories have a devil of a time winning seats in The North and so I am sure that the aberration of a Conservative MP hailing from a seat north of the Wash-Bristol Channel line will soon be rectified.

    It does seem against the proper order of things, true. Course, they can be sneaky up North, and some bits can even be a bit like the South. It ain't right I tells yer.
  • Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    Excuse my ignorance, but how does it relate to Stockton, held by 'Super Mac' in 1940s?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Danny565 said:

    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    I sometimes do that - bet on what I don't want to happen - so you win both ways.

    Only problem with your bet is Con get approx 320 seats - you lose your bet and Con do a deal with DUP so there is (effectively) a Con majority Government. So you lose both ways!
  • Time to dust off "too close to call", I think?

    If Stockton South is too close to call then a handful of UKIP defectors could be all that stands between David Cameron and unfettered control of the Number Ten biscuit tray! Truly these are desperate times for the lovers of a digestive biscuit, for surely Cameron is more inclined to continental imports that are usually found in tiny plastic wrappers in the wrong sort of coffee shop.

    Save the British digestive!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft April 7-13:........... LAB 43 CON 36
    Ashcroft June 26 - 4 July:....LAB 38 CON 35
    Survation Nov 6-12:............LAB 36.5 CON 39
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Expect the loons to start burning effigies of Ken Clarke

    @nicholaswatt: Margaret Thatcher turned on EU in embittered old age when she spoke total nonsense Ken Clarke tells #GuardianLive

    I hope he gets re-elected many more times still to come. At the very least, it will provide some great entertainment, and it would actually be amusing if in ten years the Tories spun back around and he started to appear in line with the majority of them again.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    So you think that the Lord Ashcroft LD-CON seat polling is wrong? Any reason for this?

    His last batch found a 2010 LD to CON swing of just 2%

    But Ashcroft's polls also find Lib Dem voters say they're the most likely to change their minds about who to vote for before May.

    I'm thinking it's possible some of the remaining Lib Dems will go to the Tories next year, strange as it sounds. The polls on the issues show that the Lib Dem voters are pretty well in line with the Tories' economic policies. In fact, I think it's probably more worthwhile for the Tories to go for some of them rather than the anti-austerity, anti-outoftouchposhboys UKIP voters.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The North East seems to be slowly trending away from Labour.

    Stockton S was an unexpected Con gain in 1987, and they held it in 1992 also.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Being pedantic, the Tory majority is 332 not 310.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    RodCrosby said:

    The North East seems to be slowly trending away from Labour.

    Stockton S was an unexpected Con gain in 1987, and they held it in 1992 also.

    What about Darlington, Tynemouth and Langbaurgh (MS&EC now). 2 of these should have been won in 2010 though it looks boundary changes made Darlington more Labour? Though they may win Berwick next year.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Rogue poll!

    Mind, saying that, I wouldn't put anything past the footballers' wives Yarm set and the Ingleby Barwick Mondeo owners.

    What next? Lib Dems ahead in Redcar?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Spare a thought for the people of Buffalo. Parts of the city got 6 feet of snow in 24 hours. Another incoming storm is expected to dump another 2 feet on parts of the city.

    Ralph Wilson Stadium is under 4 feet of snow. The Bills have a game on Sunday. Because of the driving ban players can't meet or have practices. The call has gone out for diggers needed.

    They will pay $10 an hour and you will get game tickets. What a deal.

    Curiously Buffalo Airport received only 4 inches of snow.

    It's starting to warm up here. By the weekend we wil be back in the 60s.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    I would second that, Yarm recently voted to leave Stockton council and join with North Yorkshire because they're too posh to be associated with Teesside.
    I live nearby


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tory vote rose by 10% in 1992, their best in the country. The fact that former SDP MP Ian Wrigglesworth wasn't standing had a lot to do with it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Freggles said:

    Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    I would second that, Yarm recently voted to leave Stockton council and join with North Yorkshire because they're too posh to be associated with Teesside.
    I live nearby


    My mother was born in Middlesborough so I knew that area well as a child. I remember it fondly.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Lib Dems split 4:3 for Labour over Tory in this poll.

    In Clacton they split 5:4 for Labour with Ashcroft

    In Rochester poll it's 10:7 for the Tories over Labour.

    In Nuneaton they split for the Tories ahead of Labour too.

    Does this mean Libs are piling in behind Labour in seats Labour already hold?


  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The North East seems to be slowly trending away from Labour.''

    That is a BOLD statement.
  • Not surprised. James Wharton is a very good MP, and works hard. He deserves to hold the seat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    chestnut said:

    The Lib Dems split 4:3 for Labour over Tory in this poll.

    In Clacton they split 5:4 for Labour with Ashcroft

    In Rochester poll it's 10:7 for the Tories over Labour.

    In Nuneaton they split for the Tories ahead of Labour too.

    Does this mean Libs are piling in behind Labour in seats Labour already hold?


    I said a few months ago that there are about 120 constituencies where there could be a massive swing from LD to Lab without any seats changing hands because those are seats where the LDs just failed to beat Labour in 2010. Most of the swing from LD to Lab seen in the national opinion polls could be concentrated in those types of seats.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034
    Rule of thumb for any constituency poll: any margin of 5% or under in either direction is too close to call.
    It does make the commentary on many of the Ashcroft polls rather different.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Any reason why the data was weighted to the population in Rochester and Strood?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    UKIP candidate is Ted Strike.

    Surely you don't mean the character from Airplane?

    Yes - and don't call be Shirley.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Danny565 said:

    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    If the LibDems end up on less than 10%, then there will be very, very few LibDem seats at all. It could well be - use Martin Day's old line - taxi time.

    That being said, I find myself vacillating wildly on what I think the LibDems will do in 2015. On the one hand, they've been marooned in the polls, really struggling to get out of the 7-9% range, with one (admittedly unweighted, on-line) poll showing them at 5%. If they can't get above 10%, then no amount of 'voter concentration' will help them.

    On the other hand, the last two months has seen barely a week go by without a LibDem by-election gain - something that was practically unheard of in the previous four years of this parliament. Of course, they're coming off a low level, but this does suggest that the activist base has not been completely destroyed, and seems to show that people (locally at least) are willing to put 'x's next to LibDem candidates names.

    I also note that in the locals this year and last year, they 'won' the council elections in a large number of their seats (Eastleigh, Portsmouth South, and most of the London seats where they're facing the Tories), which suggests - again - that tactical voting is alive and well.

    So: here's my totally crap forecast. If the LibDems can drag themselves back to 12-14% in the polls, then they'll do 'fine', and get 30-35 MPs elected. On the other hand, below 10%, it'll be less than a dozen MPs, and could well be 6-8.

    If I were a betting man, I'd reckon the former scenario is slightly more likely than the latter. But only slightly.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited November 2014
    Lets face it, it is not unusual for an MP completing his first term to increase his majority if he has aquitted himself well.

    What this also shows is a 4 way fragmentation on the left (counting UKIP as left) in this constituency.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014
    chestnut said:

    The Lib Dems split 4:3 for Labour over Tory in this poll.

    In Clacton they split 5:4 for Labour with Ashcroft

    In Rochester poll it's 10:7 for the Tories over Labour.

    In Nuneaton they split for the Tories ahead of Labour too.

    Does this mean Libs are piling in behind Labour in seats Labour already hold?

    What it means, my dear friend, is that the electorate is in need of an emulsifier, to bring its disparate elements together into a grand election-winning coalition (a small c coalition, rather than a big C Coalition). Alas, the great emulsifier is missing.

    Thus the order of the day is heterogeneity, and we face an electoral landscape where the great average movements of Liberal battalions behind their dear Red leader occurs in a process of combined and uneven development - combined with the sounds of marching going hither and thither in all directions and all places. All for want of a Sergeant Major with the authority and fine voice* to rally the troops to the standard.

    The great irony being that Conservatives of all kinds have long railed against diversity, preaching of the merits of national cohesiveness, but it is this very diversity that, Survation suggest, will carry them aloft to victory in the bright spring days that are to come.

    * Are any MPs known to be singers? Were any of them asked by Geldof to chip in for the latest group project?
  • Freggles said:

    Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    I would second that, Yarm recently voted to leave Stockton council and join with North Yorkshire because they're too posh to be associated with Teesside.
    I live nearby


    So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    Remind me how many Old Etonians are in the Cabinet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    weejonnie said:

    UKIP candidate is Ted Strike.

    Surely you don't mean the character from Airplane?

    Yes - and don't call be Shirley.

    Ted Strike was the older guy asking a question on last week's Question Time.
  • Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    There's something a little bit George Osborne [new haircut edition] about James Wharton. You can keep a Tory out of Eton, but can you keep the Eton out of a Tory?

    Culture is a bit funny like that. Pervasive.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486




    So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?





    So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?

    The vote wasn't binding so no

    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    Remind me how many Old Etonians are in the Cabinet.
    More than I am likely to ever meet as a normal person
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    There's something a little bit George Osborne [new haircut edition] about James Wharton. You can keep a Tory out of Eton, but can you keep the Eton out of a Tory?

    Culture is a bit funny like that. Pervasive.
    Goodness - you certainly struggle to keep the idiocy out of the left.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:
    Maybe they should emigrate...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    weejonnie said:

    UKIP candidate is Ted Strike.

    Surely you don't mean the character from Airplane?

    Yes - and don't call be Shirley.

    I posted that months ago, I even posted this video:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLjBJPi1Jw

    However due to the night time, a more appropriate video is needed this time:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WXVaChA3Q0
  • rcs1000 said:

    So: here's my totally crap forecast. If the LibDems can drag themselves back to 12-14% in the polls, then they'll do 'fine', and get 30-35 MPs elected. On the other hand, below 10%, it'll be less than a dozen MPs, and could well be 6-8.

    Forget the National Opinion Polls.

    The effect that you are hypothesising, that may save the Lib Dems, is not going to show itself in a National Opinion Poll, where the relevant slice of the electorate is represented by about a dozen people, at best.

    If the Lib Dems can hold on to very reluctant tactical votes against the Tories then they will hold onto about 30-35 MPs and add a few percentage points to their national polling scores - but there's no reason to expect that this will show up in the national opinion polls. There will be a lot of late decisions made in the polling booth -just look at the undecided numbers for the Lib Dems, and many of those who don't admit to the pollsters that they are undecided may still well change their mind.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Thinking of going big on betting on a Tory majority, so that I get some comfort whichever way the election goes.

    I do think the Tories could potentially get a majority without gaining a single seat off Labour -- hate to disagree with "OGH", but I do personally have an inkling (not backed up by any objective evidence I'll admit) that the Tories are going to do well in Tory/LD marginals.

    If the LibDems end up on less than 10%, then there will be very, very few LibDem seats at all. It could well be - use Martin Day's old line - taxi time.

    That being said, I find myself vacillating wildly on what I think the LibDems will do in 2015. On the one hand, they've been marooned in the polls, really struggling to get out of the 7-9% range, with one (admittedly unweighted, on-line) poll showing them at 5%. If they can't get above 10%, then no amount of 'voter concentration' will help them.

    On the other hand, the last two months has seen barely a week go by without a LibDem by-election gain - something that was practically unheard of in the previous four years of this parliament. Of course, they're coming off a low level, but this does suggest that the activist base has not been completely destroyed, and seems to show that people (locally at least) are willing to put 'x's next to LibDem candidates names.

    I also note that in the locals this year and last year, they 'won' the council elections in a large number of their seats (Eastleigh, Portsmouth South, and most of the London seats where they're facing the Tories), which suggests - again - that tactical voting is alive and well.

    So: here's my totally crap forecast. If the LibDems can drag themselves back to 12-14% in the polls, then they'll do 'fine', and get 30-35 MPs elected. On the other hand, below 10%, it'll be less than a dozen MPs, and could well be 6-8.

    If I were a betting man, I'd reckon the former scenario is slightly more likely than the latter. But only slightly.
    I think the Lib Dems can go a touch below 10% and not suffer too much. I reckon that 9 is the tipping point, to coin a phrase. I've been surprised just how low they have gone in many areas where they have no activist presence. Before this parliament, I'd have reckoned on 3-4% as an absolute minimum but they've notched up enough in the 1-2% zone that a national score in the very high single figures could see them retain a decent proportion of their seats, at least where they're fighting the Conservatives.

    Once you drop below that though, the votes have to come from their better-performing areas because there simply aren't any to realistically come from elsewhere, and at that point their MPs would start dropping like leaves on the first frost of autumn.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Freggles said:






    So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?





    So presumably theres been a constiuency boundary change to include Yarm as well?

    The vote wasn't binding so no

    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    Remind me how many Old Etonians are in the Cabinet.
    More than I am likely to ever meet as a normal person

    You've no idea then, and just assume there's an infestation. How funny.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Even more brutal than usual?

    @GuidoFawkes: Ed the Unready, Uncounselled, Ill-Advised, a Leader Surrounded by Fools http://t.co/J0VPpI29Q8
  • felix said:

    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    There's something a little bit George Osborne [new haircut edition] about James Wharton. You can keep a Tory out of Eton, but can you keep the Eton out of a Tory?

    Culture is a bit funny like that. Pervasive.
    Goodness - you certainly struggle to keep the idiocy out of the left.
    Christ on a bike man! It is Wednesday night. Rain lashes at the windows, unseen by the radar beams above. The sun shines, uncaring, on foreign lands. And I am in pain.

    Thus, in my hour of torment, I am self-medicating with delicious liquor and only po-faced humourless righties would be foolish enough to take me seriously. Begone fiend!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Isn't it odd that there have been no more R&S polls? It's quite likely that opinion has moved since the last ones, and the people who polled it earlier risk reputational damage if the result is way different.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited November 2014
    Scott_P said:

    Even more brutal than usual?

    @GuidoFawkes: Ed the Unready, Uncounselled, Ill-Advised, a Leader Surrounded by Fools http://t.co/J0VPpI29Q8

    Surely he cannot be both uncounselled and ill-advised? Even a political party would surely struggle to both not give advice and advise poorly at the same time.
  • Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    "Tiger has no sense of humour" isn't exactly news? You get the impression he didn't particularly enjoy playing golf well. He sure as hell doesn't enjoy playing it badly. Maybe he should take up stamp-collecting? (If anyone still collect stamps?)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    felix said:

    Freggles said:

    I have met James Wharton albeit years ago, although a Tory he seems a nice lad so probably has a small personal vote. Potential Tory leader if they overthrow the Eton regime

    There's something a little bit George Osborne [new haircut edition] about James Wharton. You can keep a Tory out of Eton, but can you keep the Eton out of a Tory?

    Culture is a bit funny like that. Pervasive.
    Goodness - you certainly struggle to keep the idiocy out of the left.
    Christ on a bike man! It is Wednesday night. Rain lashes at the windows, unseen by the radar beams above. The sun shines, uncaring, on foreign lands. And I am in pain.

    Thus, in my hour of torment, I am self-medicating with delicious liquor and only po-faced humourless righties would be foolish enough to take me seriously. Begone fiend!
    Lol - in this foreign land we have today clear blue skies and 24 degrees - ah the trials of the Spanish winter. and all achieved from a Grammar School education. Saludo!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074

    Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    Excuse my ignorance, but how does it relate to Stockton, held by 'Super Mac' in 1940s?
    Harold Macmillan's Stockton was more akin to the modern Stockton North, and a much less likely Conservative seat. Stockton-on-Tees is a pleasant enough town and has some nice suburbs, but is in general not the sort of place you'd expect to incline to the Conservative Party.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Isn't it odd that there have been no more R&S polls? It's quite likely that opinion has moved since the last ones, and the people who polled it earlier risk reputational damage if the result is way different.

    What - you think Labour may have fallen behind the Greens?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Telegraph - EU Must Change Or We Quit.
    Dave crying wolf, is there a by-election tomorrow?

    Another front page story on DT adds fuel to this morning's fires.
  • Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    If he is legendary, how come he thinks there is something called the British Open?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Isn't it odd that there have been no more R&S polls? It's quite likely that opinion has moved since the last ones, and the people who polled it earlier risk reputational damage if the result is way different.

    They'll just say it was a late swing.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2014
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:
    Maybe they should emigrate...
    Ken Livingstone blamed Labour's 1992 defeat on the top rate income tax proposals (50p wasn't it?) -- saying that while it was correct that very few would be affected, it was insensitive to voters' aspirations, especially in the South.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    "Tiger has no sense of humour" isn't exactly news? You get the impression he didn't particularly enjoy playing golf well. He sure as hell doesn't enjoy playing it badly. Maybe he should take up stamp-collecting? (If anyone still collect stamps?)
    He has a good sense of humor so long as he's doing the tweaking. He can give it but can't take it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited November 2014

    Isn't it odd that there have been no more R&S polls? It's quite likely that opinion has moved since the last ones, and the people who polled it earlier risk reputational damage if the result is way different.

    The end result is not really in question is it, even if things have narrowed? Hard to see that much reputational damage if the outcome is called correctly, even if it is narrower or larger than previously predicted. A minor issue, surely.

    Actually, although I wish UKIP as many MPs as they can get without costing me money from a bet (so no more than 5), I'd actually prefer a Con win tomorrow for entertainment value. UKIP would have come a close second no doubt, which would by normal measures a good result, but would bound to be somewhat deflated given how easy a win it has looked at times, and the loyalist Tories are doing what they can to prepare for a very bad day, and seeing their shock and joy would be fun, as well as Labour having to refine their message from how poorly the Tories did in losing thanks to a defection, see how weak they are, to one of showing how close it was and how pathetic it is that Cameron can barely hold onto what was a safe seat.

    Edit:Actually, scratch that - the most amazing outcome would the LDs retaining their deposit. Celebratory fireworks would be called for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Wharton is an excellent MP and a North East local, I am not surprised he is getting a big incumbent boost

    O/T Danny Finkelstein on his old boss John Major 'They did not listen to him then, they must listen to him now'
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4271591.ece
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
    All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.

    Excuse my ignorance, but how does it relate to Stockton, held by 'Super Mac' in 1940s?
    Harold Macmillan's Stockton was more akin to the modern Stockton North, and a much less likely Conservative seat. Stockton-on-Tees is a pleasant enough town and has some nice suburbs, but is in general not the sort of place you'd expect to incline to the Conservative Party.
    Not sure I'd agree there. Apart from Hexham it's probably the nearest to a strongly M/C area in the North-East. If the polls do creep back much further I would expect Wharton to hold Stockton south.
  • Petrol is cheap again, so you'd expect a boost for the government parties.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2014

    Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    If he is legendary, how come he thinks there is something called the British Open?

    He's about 84. Give the poor man a break. He's legendary, not perfect.

    To be fair - pretty much everyone here calls it the British Open.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Petrol is cheap again, so you'd expect a boost for the government parties.

    I'll say - $2.60 a gallon and falling. Just over a month ago it was $3.20. Won't last though. At below $75 a barrel many producers will start losing money.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    BBC news going big on Mark Reckless wanting to deport EU migrant workers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited November 2014
    *Buffs nails*

    I did say earlier on today that it was treason season straight after Rochester.

    Front page of the Guardian has Reckless saying two more Tories set to defect.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B21iMILIUAAGiWc.png
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    BBC news going big on Mark Reckless wanting to deport EU migrant workers.

    I'll bet it's sticking in their craws to have to help the Tories in order to scupper UKIP. Hobson's choice?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    BBC news going big on Mark Reckless wanting to deport EU migrant workers.

    Stand by for Kippers moaning about being picked on.
  • Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.

    Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.

    Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    "Tiger has no sense of humour" isn't exactly news? You get the impression he didn't particularly enjoy playing golf well. He sure as hell doesn't enjoy playing it badly. Maybe he should take up stamp-collecting? (If anyone still collect stamps?)
    He has a good sense of humor so long as he's doing the tweaking. He can give it but can't take it.
    Typical lefty then. With regards to stamp collecting - Obama goes for flattery, not philately.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    *Buffs nails*

    I did say earlier on today that it was treason season straight after Rochester.

    Front page of the Guardian has Reckless saying two more Tories set to defect.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B21iMILIUAAGiWc.png

    Shocking. There are Tories who clearly want to be in UKIP but are too gutless to make the decision unless they get even more evidence they could hold onto their seats. Otherwise, they'll be happy to remain as Tories. Courage! Sensible though.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    *Buffs nails*

    I did say earlier on today that it was treason season straight after Rochester.

    Front page of the Guardian has Reckless saying two more Tories set to defect.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B21iMILIUAAGiWc.png

    You cannot trust anything written in that Socialist Republican rag unless by a true blue Tory venturing into enemy territory.

    Better get your traitorous pig-dog 12-bore out and primed in case any fools do jump ship!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Isn't it odd that there have been no more R&S polls? It's quite likely that opinion has moved since the last ones, and the people who polled it earlier risk reputational damage if the result is way different.

    Very odd. This could be the most important by-election for years if it leads to multiple defections.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    BBC news going big on Mark Reckless wanting to deport EU migrant workers.

    Stand by for Kippers moaning about being picked on.
    Wouldn't have thought it would do much harm with Ukip inclined voters

    Especially when the polish bloke who has been living in Rochester for 9 years get that they interviewed speaks English like he's been here 9 days
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    weejonnie said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Legendary golf writer Dan Jenkins wrote a fake tongue in cheek interview with Tiger Woods in Golf Digest.

    Tiger didn't think it was funny and went after him.

    Judge for yourself....

    http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2014-12/dan-jenkins-fake-interview-with-tiger

    "Tiger has no sense of humour" isn't exactly news? You get the impression he didn't particularly enjoy playing golf well. He sure as hell doesn't enjoy playing it badly. Maybe he should take up stamp-collecting? (If anyone still collect stamps?)
    He has a good sense of humor so long as he's doing the tweaking. He can give it but can't take it.
    Typical lefty then. With regards to stamp collecting - Obama goes for flattery, not philately.
    Speaking of Obama he's asked the networks for time at 8pm tomorrow to announce his executive action on immigration, after saying 22 times on TV that he hasn't the power to do it. Cooperation indeed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.

    Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.

    Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless

    Odd wording for a direct quote. "I met him in an undisclosed location"? "I met him somewhere that I'd rather not disclose at this point" would be the more natural - the actual wording suggests that Reckless was taken there blindfolded and has not been told wher it was...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    kle4 said:

    *Buffs nails*

    I did say earlier on today that it was treason season straight after Rochester.

    Front page of the Guardian has Reckless saying two more Tories set to defect.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B21iMILIUAAGiWc.png

    Shocking. There are Tories who clearly want to be in UKIP but are too gutless to make the decision unless they get even more evidence they could hold onto their seats. Otherwise, they'll be happy to remain as Tories. Courage! Sensible though.
    Let them lose their seats, if they're that shallow, and more interested in the perks, pay cheque and pension.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    felix said:


    I'll bet it's sticking in their craws to have to help the Tories in order to scupper UKIP. Hobson's choice?

    Tories are net gainers from LibLab.

    In UKIP challenger seats, I'd expect this to be pronounced unless Labour are dumb enough to believe that UKIP are helping them as opposed to stealing their WWC vote.
This discussion has been closed.