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Can Reform outpoll the Tories with YouGov? – politicalbetting.com
Can Reform outpoll the Tories with YouGov? – politicalbetting.com
Reform UK reach another highest ever result in our voting intention this week, rising 1pt to 16%Con: 21% (+2 from 19-20 Mar)Lab: 40% (-4)Reform UK: 16% (+1)Lib Dem: 10% (+1)Green: 8% (=)SNP: 3% (=)https://t.co/mp0waUzBGD pic.twitter.com/6m0U6K6Rot
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Fortunately, Ladbrokes has made the corporate decision not to accept any more business from yours truly so I need not wear out too many grey cells pondering the question.
The ‘Pop Con’ group wants a free-market, libertarian MP to replace Rishi Sunak, with Priti Patel, the current favourite
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-faction-plans-to-install-new-leader-if-they-lose-general-election-slgt6vg2f (£££)
More evidence to be considered before wagering. I'm not even sure this is not a story spread by Priti Patel's enemies to discredit her with the Pop Con tag. 4-d chess played by 1-d minds.
While the Hermes 450 flies over Gaza, the UK version shows everything wrong with Ministry of Defence procurement, critics say
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-army-drones-disaster-flying-israeli-technology-copy-swn5l5t0d (£££)
Four decades of Tory defence cuts... Hold on, isn't Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said to be working on a leadership bid?
They could but I don’t think they will. The latest poll is R&W out yesterday with figures:
Con 22%
Lab 46%
LibDem 10%
Reform 14%
Green 5%
SNP 3%
Labour lead 24%
At a General Election a sufficient number of people return to tribal allegiance as to make it unlikely that Reform will out-poll the tories.
Marjorie Taylor Greene Press Release (Parody)
@MTGrepp
·
19m
Donald Trump has picked me to be his VP. It’s time to Make America Great Again
WHO’S READY ?
The real catastrophic decision was letting the Army, and in particular the Royal Artillery, anywhere near the system. The procurement effort and the platform were both too technically complex for them to able to manage effectively. Even the RAF would have done a better job.
Mark Francois, MP can fuck off and then fuck off again when he gets there.
It was a Poll carried out in October 2023
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1775005462754402789
.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/01/four-in-five-labour-members-back-keir-starmer-showing-rout-of-the-corbynites
He doesn't like the story, for obvious reasons.
Tough.
It seems rather esoteric to be concerned about a story like that. I suspect we will have a lot of this from tories during the GE campaign: tories desperately trying to make a huge thing of something which 99.9999999999999999999% of the public couldn’t give a flying fig about.
It’s a sure sign of their predicament.
How many people support Rishi Sunak, perhaps he could call an, what is it called these days, e something and we could find out?
It’s also a mistake for another reason. Tony Blair was hated by at least the same amount, Neil Kinnock likewise. It’s well known that the Left loathe new Labour.
All it does is cement the idea that Starmer’s Labour are in the centre ground and therefore to be trusted by most sensible British people.
Same quasi-equilibrium is now observable in the Tory vote too. I don’t think there’s much further voter leakage to come from fear of the Tory hard right, those voters have left already, which explains their focus on Reform talking points.
https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13258095/Reform-Party-cost-Tories-50-seats-Shock-study-Mail-shows-Conservatives-reduced-just-80-MPs-Labour-470.html
There is one, and only one picture emerging further GE. Labour are looking at a landslide win. And the hard right/ brexiteer representation in parliament will be decimated
That would also need Ashfield Independents on maybe 20-25%, with some having gone to Labour and a few to RefUK, a few Tories moving to AI, the Lib Dems completely missing - or with a graphic of half a foreshank to represent 0.9% or whatever, and a dotted 'maybe' line from AI to Wormwood Scrubs.
Are Reform actually putting up candidates in the local elections? I know they’ve got candidates lined up for the General Election next January (my view), but as we said here repeatedly, you do need some evidence of a ground game to make a difference when it comes to voting.
IMO that was what the Conservatives had the opportunity to create post-Brexit post-creation of the Red Wall with a focus on the moderate centre-right, but they flunked it and went bananas, then stabbed the Red Wall in the front as if they were Mack the Knife, and went running back to circle the wagons around a few bits of the South-East.
Can Labour do it? Time will tell.
Rishi is on the case.
https://news.sky.com/story/pm-backs-jk-rowling-as-row-over-scotlands-new-hate-crime-laws-escalates-13106358
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1775041259712766231?t=6eOiFm-ZWoAzIuwYDpgzwA&s=19
https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1774836758162657693?t=MuN8NWLW90EeQv7bkGI_mg&s=09
The Socialist Campaign Group membership is still 31 or 35 if you include suspendees. In 2015 that was under 10.
There are plenty of well-ensconced nutters (perhaps that should be "headbangers"). I think one determinant may be the balance between bees in bonnets and wider loyalty.
And I have no idea of the mix of current candidates who may be elected in any putative landslide.
Get rid of FPTP and the cycle stops.
Artificial pancreases to be rolled out .
Mind you for those who say no private sector involvement in the NHS I presume they don't mean in this case
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/thousands-with-type-1-diabetes-in-england-to-receive-artificial-pancreas/ar-BB1kUtgl
A Metropolitan Police officer has sparked fury after telling a Jewish woman that swastikas “need to be taken in context” at a pro-Palestine rally. What other context could there be for a swastika at a pro Hamas march ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/outrage-after-met-police-officer-says-swastikas-need-to-be-taken-in-context-at-pro-palestine-march/ar-BB1kTGhy?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8e8071965079413683638f624ded12a4&ei=32
The Lib Dem numbers seem to be based on a particularly low polling result for them. I’m sure there’s more Tory leakage there, as well as some tactical voters from Labour and Green come the election.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/01/britain-is-now-terrified-of-freedom-it-should-rejoin-the-eu/
A practical closed circuit (ie no need for separate blood glucose testing, and constant management decisions) insulin pump has been the holy grail since the late 1990s. It should be revolutionary, and self-funding through reducing later complications.
That this is the criteria shows how far we have already come. A number of 7.5% used to be considered pretty good.
For context, running at a HBA1c (approx a long term BG average over the last 3 months) of 7% rather than 9% reduces the occurrence a whole range of complications (eg serious ... eyesight deterioration, heart problems, circulation issues and more etc) by 50-75%.
Nice recommends its use for those with type 1 who are in certain categories, including children and under-18s, pregnant women, and those with a HbA1c reading - a way of recording long-term blood sugar levels - of 58 mmol/mol, or 7.5%, or higher.
I did enjoy this:
NHS England diabetes clinical director Dr Clare Hambling said the technology "holds the power to redefine the lives" of people with type 1 diabetes.
She added: "Type 1 diabetes is an easily missed diagnosis, so if you are concerned about symptoms - the four 'T's - going to the toilet, passing urine more frequently, with thirst, feeling tired and getting thinner, please come forward for support."
Easily missed until you turn up in an ambulance soon afterwards.
I don't see much 'privatisation', unless you mean the type of nutjobs who were going for Jeremy Hunt in the years 2010-2015 roughly. The "Dr Eoin Clarke" types (who was a Doctor of the History of Irish Feminism who chracteristically never told anyone but put Dr in his handle).
The NHS is leading the world in rolling out these closed loop systems for type 1 diabetics though. In part because the outlay in initial cost pays off in long term savings in complications. This is a very sensible example of long term health investment.
At the moment Labour get all this. The Tories don't. They have completely misunderstood the Brexit vote and its unique coalition that achieved it. When they get it again, Labour will be vulnerable once more to losing support as the left renews itself.
Keep it up lads.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68708981
..Adidas separately told the BBC that the German Football Association (DFB) and its partners had designed the numbers on the shirts.
In a post on Twitter/X, the DFB said the shirt designs had been submitted to UEFA for review during the design process and that "none of the parties involved saw any proximity to Nazi symbolism".
They added that an alternative design for the number 4 would be developed...
Relevant to the header as well. The kind of people who who agree with the sentiments in that article aren't going to be squeezed back to the Conservatives by fear of Labour being worse.
The point I am also making is the "no private involvement in the NHS brigade" so loud on social media, are wrong and have no understanding of medical device creation and manufacture.
Credit to Mrs May (a late onset type 1 diabetic) for rolling out continuous glucose monitoring as NHS policy having found it transformative personally.
Are the German football authorities closet AfD agents or something?
After all they are a centaur party.
Good to see the BBC licence fee remains value for money.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huw-edwards-bbc-full-pay-suspended-annual-report-ml3vv8vhb
It’s Brexitannia delenda est time.
The UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU was the most dramatic political and economic decision for generations. But as the country prepares for a general election, it is no longer on the political agenda. This film examines why no political party wants to talk about it, why Brexit remains the elephant in the room for British business and how it could actually work better
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7rDYo3FR4
Half an hour of Brexit from the Financial Times, uploaded within the last hour as if in response to this thread.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
Drake was a privateer, not a pirate.
How very metaphorical.
When he turn up at Plymouth after his circumnavigation with, if memory serves, five tons of gold and one of spices, her share of the loot exceeded the regular annual income to the Exchequer.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13252209/hippy-crack-heists-nhs-supplier-warns-nitrous-oxide-gas-canisters-stolen-law-change-illegal.html
Unintended consequences. Possessing small vials of nitrous oxide was made illegal last November following a moral panic over littering and now cylinders of the pain-killing gas are being nicked from hospitals and ambulances.
Started with a lot of OTT bombast, ended up getting beaten by an iceberg.
Otherwise you could grab yourself a Copart bargain.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-puts-up-175m-bond-and-avoids-having-his-assets-seized/ar-BB1kUhW7?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=80085ed630c2496c93bd5d3533bb525a&ei=20
Mind, it happened again in 1804, with the capture of the Spanish treasure fleet. The RN matelots were very pissed off when HM KGIII took the lot and gave them a tip instead of proper prize money - the point being that there was no war, which was a bit hypocritical of HMG. But it makes the point.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
Both schemes appear to be moribund.
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_II
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romandisea_Titanic