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We need to talk about gender – politicalbetting.com
We need to talk about gender – politicalbetting.com
Wow.Hard-right Reform party has gone ahead of the Conservatives among men in the latest polling from YouGov pic.twitter.com/CZAaDJoMaD
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An extinction level event is very possible for the Tories, but I cannot see REFUK as the replacement on the right. They are really going to struggle to find decent candidates.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13233739/Bumbling-Chicago-election-officials-missing-ballots-Democratic-primary-race.html
'I traded speed for accuracy in reporting out numbers this week as quickly as I could,' Chicago Board of Elections Public Information Officer Max Bever said in a statement.
Why don't the US simply cease giving running vote totals during election counts and wait to declare the final result as we do in the UK? This would choke off the conspiracy theories. In the fast food age, it seems that we want fast elections too.
Nope.
Not on here. And not on online forums.
Have a nice day everyone.
xx
I agree that there is zero outlook for things to get better. The longer the tories go the more annoyed the electorate will get.
: “Trump has decided that he doesn’t want money to go to Ukraine…It's a really extraordinary moment; we have an out-of-power ex-president who is in effect, dictating American foreign policy on behalf of a foreign dictator.”
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1771990872508293455
Well said.
You have to understand that these voters are not Tory voters having a moan. Their anger is much deeper than that.
Note she was re-elected in November 2022 so she's in the Senate until January 2029.
If she leaves the GOP then GOP will need two net gains for control if Trump wins or three net gains if Trump loses.
Looks like what she does may prove to be absolutely critical.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/24/politics/lisa-murkowski-done-with-trump/index.html
So fraud is far, far less likely as you get a final reported result for each precinct - and precincts are often tiny - I think most states have well over 1,000 precincts.
So to commit any significant fraud you have to commit separate frauds in hundreds of different places.
If you just fiddle the odd precinct you can't do much as it'll stand out like a sore thumb.
Say the first 5 precincts are all Republican strongholds with 90% republican votes.
If Trump only got 75% of the votes - announcing Trump won 75% gives him a narrative that allows him to claim he is winning but anyone knowing the typical result would know that Trump is actually seriously losing - except few people would know the typical 90% result.
And remember a lot of us made money on Brexit due to the spreadsheet (sorry can’t remember who created it) that quickly told us that the early results meant a plausible leave result even when the early result showed remain ahead because we had the data that allowed comparisons to be made
You couldn’t do that here which is why I joke that Rishi would screw up and end up with a May 9th general election by accident (or from vindictiveness if Simon Clarke is correct and enough letters arrive today).
In short, the Tories are liars. Everyone knows they are liars, and the main reason people have stopped listening to them is that they see some hapless Tory minister on the news defending the indefensible only hours later for the government to uturn anyway.
And I suspect it links to the rise in the Reform vote. Rishi is wishi washy on immigration. But what is it that older (born before 1960) men are seeing that everyone else isn't?
Forget talk of delaying the locals until a June GE date - feasible but not really possible politically. So we are going to have weeks of terrible news for the Tories, followed by a bloodbath at the locals, followed by the (attempted?) removal of Sunak.
Polls showed that the other suggested names would do no better. If all that a new person does is arrest the decline that would be a net positive. The lunacy of going long when every week that passes your score declines will be the ouster for Sunak. However insane his removal would be, the alternative is worse…
And without them both healthcare, and the university system (which now gets the majority of its fee income from overseas), would collapse.
That is not a situation which can be changed significantly without a great deal of effort, over a long period of time. Certainly not in a single Parliament.
The problem for the Tories is that some of them are deeply mad. Many are desperate. Others are stupid - and then combinations of all three. The good ones have long since accepted their fate and are doing so with dignity. The rest? Will find a way to make things even worse.
1) it removes points where the Tories can attack Labour
2) it provides a "reason" for Toryish voters to stay on the sofa rather than brave the rain to vote in December...
Or put it another way it's designed to reduce Tory turnout
For a certain mindset, that's fine. Fewer students, more workers available for social care.
And exactly what Government is going to tell a university town (i.e. one where its soul and economic base is their university) that their university is merging with another
Thousands of foreign nurses a year leave UK to work abroad
Exclusive: Surge in nurses originally from outside the EU moving overseas prompts concern Britain is a ‘staging post’ in their careers
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/25/thousands-of-foreign-nurses-a-year-leave-uk-to-work-abroad
Was that the case when we were in the EU ?
Scottish Government have been encouraging council house building for some years now, albeit on a modest scale. So it's not genetically impossible.
Each generation is more diverse than the last.
The policy of restricting property construction favours older generations.
Maximum favouritism is for people with large houses they bought for £15k in 1967. This tapers down - so people who got into the property market 30 years ago can afford a house in London - just about.
Given the demographic changes in the U.K., the proportions of minorities in those generations was much lower than today.
It is therefore mathematically certain that the groups most affected by the housing crisis are non-white.
Which in turn makes the policy Institutionally Racist
Sir Keir Starmer to announce plans for 'Great British Energy' company during north Wales visit
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2024-03-25/sir-keir-starmer-to-reveal-plans-for-new-public-energy-company-during-wales-trip
I suspect a lot of these voters are people who only voted for Bozo in 2019 so won't actually go out and vote come the election...
Come the election the great unknown is going to be turnout and I suspect
1) turn out will be low
2) the lower the turn out the worse the result will be for the Tories...
which again was a reason why I thought a May 2nd election was the best option for them. going out to vote for 1 thing is a faff but you may do so if you are voting for 2-3 different things..
The other day, someone mentioned that the prediction was that the population would rise in one district of Scotland by just over 1% in the next decade. And that this was beyond any possible property/infrastructure increase.
This is probably true, sad and ridiculous. True, because it matches what happens all over the U.K - it will take a decade to decide who pays the budget for the biscuits at the meeting to decide the logo for the project. Sad, because it means a deterioration in the quality of life in that area. Ridiculous, because there are countries where the population rising at 1% a year exist.
If we want to have a population rising at 0.5% a year (or whatever) we have to shift the mode of operation. Back to Victorian times with a vengeance. Whole town and suburbs in a couple of years.
Furthermore why is it ok to steal other nations skilled employees ? A doctor in a less developed country is of more value there than over here managing diseases brought on by first world lifestyles. We should be training our own people.
There's the opportunity to negotiate a tough deal with Tata in exchange for bulk long term orders.
The last thing I need is another Junior Dev who can't think through things logically step by step...
How many current Labour voters want "Tory Lite"?
It is a product without a market.
Well, Massive Johnson resembles the Goat with his sex drive and utter selfishness, less so with his intellect, application and energy.
The Keralan, Filipino and Southern African Nurses that we recruit now see it as permanent migration, so bring spouses and families. The visa and extra NHS charges are eye watering now, and that is a large part of the reason that we are now losing them to Australia and USA. Its not just baseline salaries that matter as per that article, but also these fees. It means little left over to live on, even in a place like Leicester with relatively cheap housing.
*We only have one left now, and it was because she married a Brit.
We keep hearing that a sizeable chunk of Hayley’s supporters won’t vote for him but this group of so called more moderates you would think would be replicated at national level .
There’s no sign of this .
Not bugger all.
And some ijnteresting points on how inadequate their website is, especially for Simple Assessment - which is necessarily going to be inflicted on a a fair proportion of the many new taxpayers, many of whom are OAPs, this year.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/mar/25/hmrcs-bill-looks-like-a-scam-but-its-impossible-to-check#comment-167016067
* Trump supporters distrust pollsters and do not respond. This differential non-response makes the polls inaccurate.
* Independents who distrust Trump are afraid to reply to polls thru social satisfying. This differential non-response makes the polls inaccurate.
* People join panels for money. The differential VI between such panellists and ordinary voters makes the sample unrepresentative. This makes the polls inaccurate.
If any of them are true, we be stepmom'd
We don’t *know* that Trump’s motive is to dictate American foreign policy “with the interests of a foreign dictator in mind”
An alternative scenario - which I think is plausible (although I don’t know) is he opposes Ukraine because Biden is in favour of it. It may, of course, also be Trump’s long standing dependence on Russian money.
But to make an unsupported allegation of treason and for it to pass unremarked is surprising
Most workers, and especially the low paid, have not benefited from immigrant labour.
What a peculiar view.
Have a nice day also.