Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
Yes, you might have said.
Every bloody night.
Give it a rest.
Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
From a mysterious radio station where only the last remaining Tory voters on earth are allowed on air?
No doubt you will back tomorrow to tell us Rachel Reeves speech has bombed according to every caller. Though BJO will have beaten you to it by about 18 hours.
BJO any second will ask us to explain why the stormtrooper helmeted one’s speech was so Tory and lacking detail, Sunak himself could have given it. 5, 4, 3, 2…
I watched the speech - switched to YouTube so I could actually listen to what Rachel had to say rather than two Sky News journalists telling me what she was saying while she was speaking in the background. Good speech. Lots of interesting ideas on skills, R&D, and labour security and mobility. She is starting to carve out an identity. 8/10.
I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
Yes, you might have said.
Every bloody night.
Give it a rest.
Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
We are just concerned that you have put all your money on the Cons winning the next GE. I mean with you being so sure it would be crazy not to have!
Indeed. Along with the election being in January, which is widely available at double-figure odds.
I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer
But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer
I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
It's Kate. Why this obsession with finding conspiracies everywhere? She's dead, it's an entirely different woman, it's a lookalike, it's a robot, it's an AI-generated image, Meghan is made of cheese...
Anyone else wonder if Kate and family are trolling now?
Polling (detailed) on Trump's legal woes. Interesting stuff, although we always need to be wary of more hypothetical questions. Suggests a guilty verdict in the Stormy trial would hurt Trump significantly with independents.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
I learned recently (via Ozzy and Ballzy’s podcast) that the only reason the parliament returns for the September fortnight (before immediately fucking off to the conferences) is because Call Me Dave was terrified of politicians being seen by the public as lazy.
Therefore, they now emerge for a couple of weeks in late summer, a period in September which is so short as to be pointless and without purpose, and is widely loathed by all MPs because it deprives them of a fortnight of what would otherwise be useful holiday.
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
It's Kate. Why this obsession with finding conspiracies everywhere? She's dead, it's an entirely different woman, it's a lookalike, it's a robot, it's an AI-generated image, Meghan is made of cheese...
Anyone else wonder if Kate and family are trolling now?
If it helps I can confirm that that is definitely Windsor Farm Shop. I bought some rather nice sausages there a couple of months ago.
This more adequately links a chain of sausages to the farm Shop than a chain of evidence of identity to the princess.
And Windsor farm shop is in Old Windsor rather than Windsor. Whoever set the shop up will surely have known that so why the error? What were they trying to hint at or hide? This is on a par with Elvis's name being misspelt on his grave and the unmentioned scar behind Lee Harvey Oswald's ear.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
Yes, you might have said.
Every bloody night.
Give it a rest.
Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
We are just concerned that you have put all your money on the Cons winning the next GE. I mean with you being so sure it would be crazy not to have!
Indeed. Along with the election being in January, which is widely available at double-figure odds.
Tbf to Mexican, he did go for a January date and a Con majority in the PB Prediction comp.
I'm guessing it's all an anti-jinx double-bluff strategy.
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
It's Kate. Why this obsession with finding conspiracies everywhere? She's dead, it's an entirely different woman, it's a lookalike, it's a robot, it's an AI-generated image, Meghan is made of cheese...
Anyone else wonder if Kate and family are trolling now?
Mark O'Neill @marxculture · 10h If anyone knows where Kate Middleton is it will be the University of St Andrews Alumni fund raising team.
I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
Yes, you might have said.
Every bloody night.
Give it a rest.
Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
We are just concerned that you have put all your money on the Cons winning the next GE. I mean with you being so sure it would be crazy not to have!
Indeed. Along with the election being in January, which is widely available at double-figure odds.
Tbf to Mexican, he did go for a January date and a Con majority in the PB Prediction comp.
I'm guessing it's all an anti-jinx double-bluff strategy.
The old reverse psychology technique? Maybe. My only question is whether he needs to repeat it at precisely 9.12pm every effing night for the magic to work?
Good news! UK Inflation under 3.5% tomorrow 🤑 but could tomorrows headline grabbing inflation drop, prove bad news for the government?
Let’s look at the forecasts - not ones I’m making up, real ones - and see how the inflation/interest rate forcasts can shape politics this year.
Inflation going down to under 3.5% tomorrow, and later this spring will be close to 2%. But then it’s supposed to go up again, so the closer and quicker it gets to 2% the higher and quicker it can bounce up again? And the problem here for the government is the focus on interest rate cuts, as inflation quickly falls in spring but interest rates don’t. There’s likely no interest rate cut till June - because of wage inflation over 6% still, the strong pound, and inflationary things coming down the line like Aprils minimum wage rise - so in June interest rates finally cut 0.25% to 5%.
But what if this is it? with inflation bouncing upwards again, and joined by rising energy prices, will BoE cut interest rates further before the General Election? The better news on interest rates and mortgages is only likely to come well into next year isn’t it?
So politically the “false Dawn” coming far too early for election scenario, from the good news in March and April it quickly feels like government losing control failing to deliver again? Not just interest rates not budging, what if inflation tops symbolic 5% again before the General Election, caused in part by the governments tax cuts and the unexpected strong pound versus the expected stagnant economy generating inflation from over demand?
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
It's Kate. Why this obsession with finding conspiracies everywhere? She's dead, it's an entirely different woman, it's a lookalike, it's a robot, it's an AI-generated image, Meghan is made of cheese...
Anyone else wonder if Kate and family are trolling now?
In the next royal photo, everyone will have red-eye and there will be a thumb in the frame.
Good news! UK Inflation under 3.5% tomorrow 🤑 but could tomorrows headline grabbing inflation drop, prove bad news for the government?
Let’s look at the forecasts - not ones I’m making up, real ones - and see how the inflation/interest rate forcasts can shape politics this year.
Inflation going down to under 3.5% tomorrow, and later this spring will be close to 2%. But then it’s supposed to go up again, so the closer and quicker it gets to 2% the higher and quicker it can bounce up again? And the problem here for the government is the focus on interest rate cuts, as inflation quickly falls in spring but interest rates don’t. There’s likely no interest rate cut till June - because of wage inflation over 6% still, the strong pound, and inflationary things coming down the line like Aprils minimum wage rise - so in June interest rates finally cut 0.25% to 5%.
But what if this is it? with inflation bouncing upwards again, and joined by rising energy prices, will BoE cut interest rates further before the General Election? The better news on interest rates and mortgages is only likely to come well into next year isn’t it?
So politically the “false Dawn” coming far too early for election scenario, from the good news in March and April it quickly feels like government losing control failing to deliver again? Not just interest rates not budging, what if inflation tops symbolic 5% again before the General Election, caused in part by the governments tax cuts and the unexpected strong pound versus the expected stagnant economy generating inflation from over demand?
A period of lower inflation won't help. The problem is the hikes that have already occurred, not the ones that are or are not to come. These are giving ordinary people a tough time and it isn't going away.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
Yes, you might have said.
Every bloody night.
Give it a rest.
Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
We are just concerned that you have put all your money on the Cons winning the next GE. I mean with you being so sure it would be crazy not to have!
Indeed. Along with the election being in January, which is widely available at double-figure odds.
Tbf to Mexican, he did go for a January date and a Con majority in the PB Prediction comp.
I'm guessing it's all an anti-jinx double-bluff strategy.
The old reverse psychology technique? Maybe. My only question is whether he needs to repeat it at precisely 9.12pm every effing night for the magic to work?
For all I know, it could be. Mind you, I wouldn't put it past Sunak to call an election only for the courts to rule it illegal.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
Yes the heat is insane - even the locals are talking about it. 30C minima
Fuck
Yet you get used to it. Somehow
And it is lavishly beautiful. Honestly one of the most gorgeous places I’ve ever been - and also culturally fascinating
Eg you see these small indigenous people walking around all in white with face paint. Your automatic reaction is “oh something for the tourists” - but of course it isn’t. There aren’t enough tourists
The indigenes are the Kogi people. They all wear white always. They are the direct pure blood descendants of the tayrona/muisca who have been here since trillions of years ago. They ask their sons to live in caves - this is another ancient tradition; tho they have now abandoned the child sacrifice that came after the cave dwelling
Fantastically exotic and completely authentic. Absolutely not “for the tourists”
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
Another overlooked point is that Middlesbrough and Birmingham sound like the sorts of places that would have Labour mayors. I suspect the man on the Clapham omnibus would be surprised to discover both metro mayoralties are held by Tories.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
If the Tories 'surprise on the upside' in the Locals they be asking Sunak why the fuck he didn't call the GE for the same day.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
I needed cash in the wilds of Gloucestershire last week. No signal to pay by phone no signal for the card machine.
It's not as vital in Camden that said I'll grant you.
I’m in a hammock. Where does PB stand on hammocks? Do we have a consensus?
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
Don't be a doughnut. BBC very explicitly saying it's Kate on 10 o'clock news. That's because it is Kate. Why do people love conspiracy?
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I’m in a hammock. Where does PB stand on hammocks? Do we have a consensus?
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
Unfortunately the bbc has become a bit of an unreliable source for factual information. Although its not at north korea levels yet.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
I needed cash in the wilds of Gloucestershire last week. No signal to pay by phone no signal for the card machine.
It's not as vital in Camden that said I'll grant you.
You don’t need any internet signal to pay by ApplePay. They retailer must be a bit daft to use a wireless card machine in an area without any cellular coverage but… some people are a bit dim.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
I needed cash in the wilds of Gloucestershire last week. No signal to pay by phone no signal for the card machine.
It's not as vital in Camden that said I'll grant you.
You don’t need any internet signal to pay by ApplePay. They retailer must be a bit daft to use a wireless card machine in an area without any cellular coverage but… some people are a bit dim.
That I think is the issue. Some people are dim. Or, like me, don't have an Apple anything. Or does a vital element of your cashless nirvana also include everyone switching to Apple products.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
He'll end the war by letting Putin win.
Then he will call that winning. Its a win for Putin and a win for Trump as he no longer has to fund a foreign war.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
I’m in a hammock. Where does PB stand on hammocks? Do we have a consensus?
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
There. That’s my position on hammocks
Here’s a nice neat weaving together of plots.
The first and only time I’ve slept a whole night in a hammock was at Fruit Palace author Charles Nicholl’s house after his son and I went to a disco in a nearby village hall.
He had glow in the dark star constellations on the ceiling and I spent all night with an earworm of Tom’s Diner.
O/T A different take on the housing crisis: "Mass-scale housebuilding isn’t necessary – there is already enough housing stock. But we need to learn the wisdom of the last century when it comes to landlordism"
And:
"In terms of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, the UK has roughly the average number of homes per capita: 468 per 1,000 people in 2019. We have a comparable amount of housing to the Netherlands, Hungary or Canada, and our housing stock far exceeds many more affordable places such as Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic."
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
Don't be a doughnut. BBC very explicitly saying it's Kate on 10 o'clock news. That's because it is Kate. Why do people love conspiracy?
Well as the bbc says it i will have to believe them cough cough
Good news! UK Inflation under 3.5% tomorrow 🤑 but could tomorrows headline grabbing inflation drop, prove bad news for the government?
Let’s look at the forecasts - not ones I’m making up, real ones - and see how the inflation/interest rate forcasts can shape politics this year.
Inflation going down to under 3.5% tomorrow, and later this spring will be close to 2%. But then it’s supposed to go up again, so the closer and quicker it gets to 2% the higher and quicker it can bounce up again? And the problem here for the government is the focus on interest rate cuts, as inflation quickly falls in spring but interest rates don’t. There’s likely no interest rate cut till June - because of wage inflation over 6% still, the strong pound, and inflationary things coming down the line like Aprils minimum wage rise - so in June interest rates finally cut 0.25% to 5%.
But what if this is it? with inflation bouncing upwards again, and joined by rising energy prices, will BoE cut interest rates further before the General Election? The better news on interest rates and mortgages is only likely to come well into next year isn’t it?
So politically the “false Dawn” coming far too early for election scenario, from the good news in March and April it quickly feels like government losing control failing to deliver again? Not just interest rates not budging, what if inflation tops symbolic 5% again before the General Election, caused in part by the governments tax cuts and the unexpected strong pound versus the expected stagnant economy generating inflation from over demand?
I've been saying on here for a while that there will be an inflation bounce later this year after it gets to around 2% in a few months time.
This is why interest rates will not move to any significant extent in the short term as the MPC know this bounce is coming.
So no electoral benefit for Rishi and it could get worse for him as more people move of their current mortgage deals to something much more expensive.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
I expect two stages. A peak around now or April, then stage one is a gentle decline from the peak to the 9-10% range, then a more rapid squeeze during the campaign. But to somewhat higher than 3%. My guess would be 6-7%.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.
I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
Don't be a doughnut. BBC very explicitly saying it's Kate on 10 o'clock news. That's because it is Kate. Why do people love conspiracy?
Well as the bbc says it i will have to believe them cough cough
You know something is true when Truman and Leon have denied it.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes 2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region 3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society” 4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal 7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I don’t think I ever claimed the wilds of Colombia were cashless!! I found the Balkans bad enough on my tour last summer, farcical scenes ensued among all the western visitors but I won’t bore you with them again.
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
I needed cash in the wilds of Gloucestershire last week. No signal to pay by phone no signal for the card machine.
It's not as vital in Camden that said I'll grant you.
You don’t need any internet signal to pay by ApplePay. They retailer must be a bit daft to use a wireless card machine in an area without any cellular coverage but… some people are a bit dim.
That I think is the issue. Some people are dim. Or, like me, don't have an Apple anything. Or does a vital element of your cashless nirvana also include everyone switching to Apple products.
I assume AndroidPay (or whatever it is called) works similarly - through NFC?
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
I’m in a hammock. Where does PB stand on hammocks? Do we have a consensus?
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
There. That’s my position on hammocks
Here’s a nice neat weaving together of plots.
The first and only time I’ve slept a whole night in a hammock was at Fruit Palace author Charles Nicholl’s house after his son and I went to a disco in a nearby village hall.
He had glow in the dark star constellations on the ceiling and I spent all night with an earworm of Tom’s Diner.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
But 2017 and 2019 were "surprise" elections. Of course the polls moved, because no one, other than the most politically aware, was expecting them. So the forced choice was forced. We have been talking about an imminent election for months and months. And yet, the polls don't move. Except to the Tories disadvantage.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
I’m in a hammock. Where does PB stand on hammocks? Do we have a consensus?
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
Why would you expect getting in and out of a hammock to change the way that you look?
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
This nugget is unlikely to help quell the conspiracy theories:
Kevin Pietersen, the 43-year-old ex-England captain, dismissed the theories while claiming that he sees the Royal couple “most days” and urging people to “leave her and her beautiful family alone”.
KP sees them most days. But where does he see them? We need to know more.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
But 2017 and 2019 were "surprise" elections. Of course the polls moved, because no one, other than the most politically aware, was expecting them. So the forced choice was forced. We have been talking about an imminent election for months and months. And yet, the polls don't move. Except to the Tories disadvantage.
I say this every night to you now: keep clutching your pearls. You do not know for sure what happens once the campaign starts.
The special magic of FPTP - love it or hate it, you can’t deny its handiwork.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Happens with famous people all the time. One reason hospitals, banks etc put in access controls, triggers and silent alerting is that such behaviour is/was quite common.
In one bank, we actually had complaints (semi joking) after we encrypted the prod database. Apparently, logging in a browsing the tables was a “right”…. This was many years ago.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Here's the thing:
People want a strong man dictator who agrees with them. They're not so keen on strong men dictators with different views.
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
Perhaps the client media believe if they can keep all this Kate s**** running 'til the election perhaps we will all forget that our mortgage repayments and car insurance have gone through the roof, our schools are falling down, food inflation has been astronomical and the health and social care service is on its knees, and we'll all rally round Kate and vote Conservative.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
‘‘Twas ever thus.
Read up on the Thirty Tyrants. Young(ish) , well educated, with a fascination for a foreign, dictatorial regime (Sparta) and a contempt for democracy.
Naturally they setup death squads, Kangaroo courts. All the toys of totalitarianism.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
Some of the areas are big and rural and if they lose those it is a very very bad sign indeed. Even expecting a bad night, you'd still think they'd win many of those.
Take Wiltshire. Labour were third in the initial 2021 PCC election, but it was very close with them and the LDs for second, with the Tories miles ahead. They had to do a rerun and Labour actually came fourth that time, but turnout was way down and it seems people were rolling in behind an Independent.
This time around Labour are doing much better nationally and the Tories much worse and Swindon, the most Labour part of Wiltshire (and where the c ouncil just flipped to Labour after 20 years) has some elections whilst the Wiltshire Council area, much more strongly Conservative, does not.
If Labour don't win it this time they never will. I'd still put money on the Tories winning there, but several others will surely be at risk as well.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Okay, I believe you, but it would be good to see one of these polls.
Wow ive just seen this on twitter. For those of a sensitive disposition look away.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
‘‘Twas ever thus.
Read up on the Thirty Tyrants. Young(ish) , well educated, with a fascination for a foreign, dictatorial regime (Sparta) and a contempt for democracy.
Naturally they setup death squads, Kangaroo courts. All the toys of totalitarianism.
It's heartening to know that for all the thousands of years of recorded history, people are still just people.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Here's the thing:
People want a strong man dictator who agrees with them. They're not so keen on strong men dictators with different views.
The Russian concern troll is quite an entertaining new development, though.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Okay, I believe you, but it would be good to see one of these polls.
“Younger people more likely to doubt merits of democracy – global poll
International study reveals 42% of people aged 18 to 35 supportive of military rule, against 20% of older respondents”
I guess it's all that can reasonably be expected from disaffected Republicans.
It's a mark of how fucked things are that Pence was praised for his bravery in saying he wouldn't be endorsing the guy who nearly had him killed.
But it's encouraging that other senior GOP figures are saying no to Trump.
Yes, it shouldn't be a surprise Pence says he won't endorse Trump, but it is. Even for those not seeking office again the servilility towards Trump even as he insults and berates people, and his supporters hate them, is remarkable in showing the strength of his hold on the party.
I'd put money on Pence still voting for Trump though.
It's a bare handful saying it though. Are any a big shock though?
Best case scenario that sort of thing gives tacit encouragement to former Trump voting waverers to at least stay home this time.
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
Perhaps the client media believe if they can keep all this Kate s**** running 'til the election perhaps we will all forget that our mortgage repayments and car insurance have gone through the roof, our schools are falling down, food inflation has been astronomical and the health and social care service is on its knees, and we'll all rally round Kate and vote Conservative.
One of your more bizarre theories but at least it makes a change from the usual repetitive bilge.
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
This nugget is unlikely to help quell the conspiracy theories:
Kevin Pietersen, the 43-year-old ex-England captain, dismissed the theories while claiming that he sees the Royal couple “most days” and urging people to “leave her and her beautiful family alone”.
KP sees them most days. But where does he see them? We need to know more.
Hopefully the kids are future England cricket players.
Wow ive just seen this on twitter. For those of a sensitive disposition look away.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
What do women do in the workplace? They get men fired/demoted/overlooked for promotion because it's not "fair" that men take more of the top slots.
I shall be sure to tell my female boss that is all women do in the workplace, and I suspect it will prove to be true I get fired or demoted as a result, for shame. No other possibilities exist.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Here's the thing:
People want a strong man dictator who agrees with them. They're not so keen on strong men dictators with different views.
It's fine if they don't like them the can just vote them o...
Deliveroo rider bites off Aldershot customer's thumb
A food delivery driver who bit off a customer's thumb has pleaded guilty to causing grievous bodily harm.
Jenniffer Rocha, 35, attacked the customer in December 2022 near his home in Aldershot in Hampshire.
She was not employed by Deliveroo, but had been working as a "substitute" rider using someone else's account.
The judge at Winchester Crown Court described it as a "serious offence", which could result in a prison sentence.
Deliveroo said it was an "awful incident", adding it had ended the rider's account.
One of the requirements of self employment is that your labour must be substitutable. So unless Deliveroo want to make them employees, they have to allow it. This, of course, is how so many illegal immigrants work for these services - technically the legal rider who owns the account is liable, but good luck ever finding out or enforcing it.
Happens with famous people all the time. One reason hospitals, banks etc put in access controls, triggers and silent alerting is that such behaviour is/was quite common.
In one bank, we actually had complaints (semi joking) after we encrypted the prod database. Apparently, logging in a browsing the tables was a “right”…. This was many years ago.
I 100% didn't temp for a credit agency many years ago and we 100% didn't amuse ourselves looking up things like the Littlewoods catalogue payments of various celebs. Especially not the Le Bon family.
Though I did get a tad freaked out when I looked up the credit history of '1, Buckingham Place' (home of 'The Prisoner'/'Number 6') and got a big flashy "THIS HAS BEEN LOGGED" on my 'terminal'.
I've since realised it was likely a fellow (if older) geek just playing with me. The b*stard.
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
But 2017 and 2019 were "surprise" elections. Of course the polls moved, because no one, other than the most politically aware, was expecting them. So the forced choice was forced. We have been talking about an imminent election for months and months. And yet, the polls don't move. Except to the Tories disadvantage.
I say this every night to you now: keep clutching your pearls. You do not know for sure what happens once the campaign starts.
The special magic of FPTP - love it or hate it, you can’t deny its handiwork.
Well. We'll see. For the record I expect the Tories to poll around the 29-30 level. My prediction in the contest was, I think, for a Labour majority of 58. I don't think that gap will be closed by Refuk voters returning "home". But by swing voters and differential turnout. There is no enthusiasm for a Labour government. There is plenty for a non-Tory one. A Labour majority is becoming baked in. Once it is fully accepted that Labour will form the next government, the Labour vote will decline. We may be headed for a record low turnout.
BBC reporter Sonja McLaughlan says that the TMZ video of the woman shopping this past weekend was a Kate Middleton lookalike, and "it's disturbing that newspapers are reporting this as fact."
This nugget is unlikely to help quell the conspiracy theories:
Kevin Pietersen, the 43-year-old ex-England captain, dismissed the theories while claiming that he sees the Royal couple “most days” and urging people to “leave her and her beautiful family alone”.
KP sees them most days. But where does he see them? We need to know more.
Hopefully the kids are future England cricket players.
KP is obviously coaching Kate to captain the England Ladies cricket team. In secret. So as not to alert the Indians and Australians to the plan. It all adds up, when you think about it.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Okay, I believe you, but it would be good to see one of these polls.
“Younger people more likely to doubt merits of democracy – global poll
International study reveals 42% of people aged 18 to 35 supportive of military rule, against 20% of older respondents”
Wow ive just seen this on twitter. For those of a sensitive disposition look away.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
What do women do in the workplace? They get men fired/demoted/overlooked for promotion because it's not "fair" that men take more of the top slots.
I shall be sure to tell my female boss that is all women do in the workplace, and I suspect it will prove to be true I get fired or demoted as a result, for shame. No other possibilities exist.
Wow ive just seen this on twitter. For those of a sensitive disposition look away.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
What do women do in the workplace? They get men fired/demoted/overlooked for promotion because it's not "fair" that men take more of the top slots.
I shall be sure to tell my female boss that is all women do in the workplace, and I suspect it will prove to be true I get fired or demoted as a result, for shame. No other possibilities exist.
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Okay, I believe you, but it would be good to see one of these polls.
“Younger people more likely to doubt merits of democracy – global poll
International study reveals 42% of people aged 18 to 35 supportive of military rule, against 20% of older respondents”
There’s this thing called “google”; you should try it
Yes this is related to the fact that many of the young are economically struggling.
And also because they are considerably stupider than their parents and grandparents. The IQ drop - the Reverse Flynn Effect - is now palpable and affecting human society. I hope the AI hurries up and gets sentient quick
The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months
Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:
Avoid: - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required. - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation. - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa. - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea. - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas - 26th Dec - obviously not - 2nd Jan - Er no. - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning. - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon. - 23rd - ditto.
So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.
12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.
And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,
Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.
However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.
You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...
...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.
If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.
All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
To avoid fall out from the May 2nd elections was one of the reasons for May 2nd General election.
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
There are, including London, 11 mayoral elections. The Tories hold 2, Labour 6, and 3 are new mayoral positions. I think the Conservatives are expected to win 0-1? It will be a powerful message if they win 0.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
The worst it can be is two meaningless mayor losses> -2 up in lights? It’s not even a front page story.
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
They could be the beginning of the bursting of the Reform polling bubble. I expect Reform to do pretty badly, not least because they won’t bother standing in a lot of seats.
I note you have oft predicted bursting of the `reform bubble, and it will happen, Timsy. I 100% agree with you. I am sure everything for reform above 3% will end up voting for the Conservatives.
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
But 2017 and 2019 were "surprise" elections. Of course the polls moved, because no one, other than the most politically aware, was expecting them. So the forced choice was forced. We have been talking about an imminent election for months and months. And yet, the polls don't move. Except to the Tories disadvantage.
I say this every night to you now: keep clutching your pearls. You do not know for sure what happens once the campaign starts.
The special magic of FPTP - love it or hate it, you can’t deny its handiwork.
Well. We'll see. For the record I expect the Tories to poll around the 29-30 level. My prediction in the contest was, I think, for a Labour majority of 58. I don't think that gap will be closed by Refuk voters returning "home". But by swing voters and differential turnout. There is no enthusiasm for a Labour government. There is plenty for a non-Tory one. A Labour majority is becoming baked in. Once it is fully accepted the Labour vote will decline. We may be headed for a record low turnout.
Do you reckon there could be a LibDem surge and, if so, who would it hurt more?
Davey is boring but decent, and anything can happen in a campaign. How would a Nick Clegg moment affect things?
Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24?
Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.
When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
Every day the Republicans find another talking point to avoid sending aid to Ukraine, without flat out coming and saying that they don't care if a democracy is conquered by a dictatorship, because they no longer value democracy.
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
Its almost as if there may have been ahem gifts to congressmen from certain foreign sources. Its all very interesting.
I'd almost be relieved if it was as mundane as that they'd been bought, but I think the truth is worse - they don't need to be bought, because they no longer believe in democracy.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
Yes there is certainly the desire in the west especially amongst the young for a strong man dictator. For example i think there would be a substantial number of young people in the west in favour of dissolving Parliament and replacing it with a dictatorship. The times we live in im agraid.
Any polling evidence for this? What do you consider a substantial number? 2m, 200k, 200?
Plenty of polls support this. I am afraid it is true - young people are happy to abandon democracy the same way they are happy to abandon free speech
Okay, I believe you, but it would be good to see one of these polls.
“Younger people more likely to doubt merits of democracy – global poll
International study reveals 42% of people aged 18 to 35 supportive of military rule, against 20% of older respondents”
Wow ive just seen this on twitter. For those of a sensitive disposition look away.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
What do women do in the workplace? They get men fired/demoted/overlooked for promotion because it's not "fair" that men take more of the top slots.
I shall be sure to tell my female boss that is all women do in the workplace, and I suspect it will prove to be true I get fired or demoted as a result, for shame. No other possibilities exist.
Make that misogynist Russian concern troll.
Misogynist Russian concern troll ah that makes me feel good. A toast to you my friend.
Comments
It's been months and months and it's always one different excuse after another. First they had to deal with the overall budget first, then it had to be tied to the border, then it had to be bundled up with aid to Israel, then it had to not be, then a loan instead of a grant, now they need a strategy for winning the war, all the time they're going the right way about losing the war.
It's all disingenuous bullshit. There isn't, yet, a majority in Congress opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, but by ducking and weaving from one pettyfogging issue after another the minority can hold it up indefinitely.
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-steven-moffat-return-newsupdate/
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/18/poll-conviction-trump-2024-elections-00147338
I’m getting mixed messages from PB on what the situation was last time these elections were fought - it’s clear now not the high point of Boris with the Hartlepool win that nearly finished Starmer, these actually a limited set of elections May 2nd where Tories cannot lose the symbolic 1000 seats or anything like that. Even losing the mayor elections isn’t going to be amazingly news worthy sort of with expectations not exceeding them in any shock results.
But it adds to pressure already there from Truss level opinion polling, I think it will result in a vonc after May 2nd. And as HY says, the smart money says Sunak easily survives it, though even more lame dunk like. 100% certain now Rishi leads them into General Election.
Therefore, they now emerge for a couple of weeks in late summer, a period in September which is so short as to be pointless and without purpose, and is widely loathed by all MPs because it deprives them of a fortnight of what would otherwise be useful holiday.
1. I’d do that road in a 4x4 obvs. But I’m in a “suzuki swift”. Yes
2. I can’t “walk” it’s 20km to the next town with the single ATM in the whole region
3. So much for @Anabobazina’s “cashless society”
4. Anyway some Colombian lady ran out and waggled a finger and told me “no no no muy peligroso” then she told me the safe way to go so I did
Yay. I now have my cash and I can have some booze
6. This part of Colombia is stunningly beautiful. The mountains are higher than the alps yet covered in jungle and yet snowcapped in places and they are right by the coast. Its phenomenal
7. So it’s paradisiacal but sinister. It’s like the garden of Eden but every flower and fruit might be poisonous
I'm guessing it's all an anti-jinx double-bluff strategy.
Mark O'Neill
@marxculture
·
10h
If anyone knows where Kate Middleton is it will be the University of St Andrews Alumni fund raising team.
https://twitter.com/marxculture/status/1770051618857247113
but could tomorrows headline grabbing inflation drop, prove bad news for the government?
Let’s look at the forecasts - not ones I’m making up, real ones - and see how the inflation/interest rate forcasts can shape politics this year.
Inflation going down to under 3.5% tomorrow, and later this spring will be close to 2%. But then it’s supposed to go up again, so the closer and quicker it gets to 2% the higher and quicker it can bounce up again? And the problem here for the government is the focus on interest rate cuts, as inflation quickly falls in spring but interest rates don’t. There’s likely no interest rate cut till June - because of wage inflation over 6% still, the strong pound, and inflationary things coming down the line like Aprils minimum wage rise - so in June interest rates finally cut 0.25% to 5%.
But what if this is it? with inflation bouncing upwards again, and joined by rising energy prices, will BoE cut interest rates further before the General Election? The better news on interest rates and mortgages is only likely to come well into next year isn’t it?
So politically the “false Dawn” coming far too early for election scenario, from the good news in March and April it quickly feels like government losing control failing to deliver again? Not just interest rates not budging, what if inflation tops symbolic 5% again before the General Election, caused in part by the governments tax cuts and the unexpected strong pound versus the expected stagnant economy generating inflation from over demand?
Glad you got your beer anyway: I saw your post about the overnight temps you were coping with. Sounds like my idea of hell albeit very pretty in some of the photos you have shared.
The PCC elections get little attention. There are 39, I think. Currently Labour hold 8 and Plaid 1. (Wikipedia says there's 1 independent, but I think they're wrong.) So, 30 Conservatives, a huge area of local strength. Could those figures look very bad for the Tories, or might they represent an oasis of successful defences?
These “local elections” have been bigged up as end of Sunak, when they are nothing of the sort.
Fuck
Yet you get used to it. Somehow
And it is lavishly beautiful. Honestly one of the most gorgeous places I’ve ever been - and also culturally fascinating
Eg you see these small indigenous people walking around all in white with face paint. Your automatic reaction is “oh something for the tourists” - but of course it isn’t. There aren’t enough tourists
The indigenes are the Kogi people. They all wear white always. They are the direct pure blood descendants of the tayrona/muisca who have been here since trillions of years ago. They ask their sons to live in caves - this is another ancient tradition; tho they have now abandoned the child sacrifice that came after the cave dwelling
Fantastically exotic and completely authentic. Absolutely not “for the tourists”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kogi_people
“When two Kogi men meet, the customary greeting is to exchange handfuls of coca.”
We should adopt it in the west
“When two British men meet, the customary greeting is to exchange pints of mild”
Or
“When two American men meet, the customary greeting is to exchange lethal doses of fentanyl”
It's not as vital in Camden that said I'll grant you.
For me they are pleasant and agreeable but never QUITE as agreeable as they should be. Somehow. And it’s quite hard getting in and out of them without looking a tit
There. That’s my position on hammocks
I don’t know why but it is. I guess it’s the New World? So much of it is unexplored whereas Africa feels significantly more explored - and familiar
South America is deliciously bewildering. Tho Africa has the fauna
“principled conservatives need to incentivize our party...to nominate somebody that principled conservatives can actually believe in... I'm tired of having my vote taken for granted”
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1770135549111619951
Just now, Sen. Murkowski also told us she will *not* vote for either Trump or Biden.
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1770210083227439433
It is going to happen, but the catalysts will only be the dissolution of parliament and publishing of the manifestos.
Remember how things moved in 2017 and 2019 in just weeks, but only once election called, and campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns will get hoovered up. Why? Two reasons. Voters know how serious it is electing government they are stuck with for 5 years hating everyday, so will use their vote wisely in this regard; and FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere is what it becomes.
The first and only time I’ve slept a whole night in a hammock was at Fruit Palace author Charles Nicholl’s house after his son and I went to a disco in a nearby village hall.
He had glow in the dark star constellations on the ceiling and I spent all night with an earworm of Tom’s Diner.
"Mass-scale housebuilding isn’t necessary – there is already enough housing stock. But we need to learn the wisdom of the last century when it comes to landlordism"
And:
"In terms of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, the UK has roughly the average number of homes per capita: 468 per 1,000 people in 2019. We have a comparable amount of housing to the Netherlands, Hungary or Canada, and our housing stock far exceeds many more affordable places such as Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic."
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis
This is why interest rates will not move to any significant extent in the short term as the MPC know this bounce is coming.
So no electoral benefit for Rishi and it could get worse for him as more people move of their current mortgage deals to something much more expensive.
If you believe in democracy you have to be prepared to accept that the people might disagree with you and you could lose elections. I don't think the Republicans believe that any more. It's not just Trump, it's also there in things like blocking Obama's Supreme Court pick.
https://x.com/kristenmeinzer/status/1770193490313351231?s=20
Of course the polls moved, because no one, other than the most politically aware, was expecting them. So the forced choice was forced.
We have been talking about an imminent election for months and months.
And yet, the polls don't move. Except to the Tories disadvantage.
https://twitter.com/KaindeB/status/1770173992613089739?t=CiN3lTB81oa-uNxx2u5EsA&s=19
“Kate Middleton security breach after staff at hospital ‘attempted to access private medical records’ trib.al/PbPP0e3”
https://x.com/mailonline/status/1770192288116793590?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Kevin Pietersen, the 43-year-old ex-England captain, dismissed the theories while claiming that he sees the Royal couple “most days” and urging people to “leave her and her beautiful family alone”.
KP sees them most days. But where does he see them? We need to know more.
The special magic of FPTP - love it or hate it, you can’t deny its handiwork.
In one bank, we actually had complaints (semi joking) after we encrypted the prod database. Apparently, logging in a browsing the tables was a “right”…. This was many years ago.
People want a strong man dictator who agrees with them. They're not so keen on strong men dictators with different views.
Same difference perhaps.
Read up on the Thirty Tyrants. Young(ish) , well educated, with a fascination for a foreign, dictatorial regime (Sparta) and a contempt for democracy.
Naturally they setup death squads, Kangaroo courts. All the toys of totalitarianism.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68558464
Deliveroo rider bites off Aldershot customer's thumb
A food delivery driver who bit off a customer's thumb has pleaded guilty to causing grievous bodily harm.
Jenniffer Rocha, 35, attacked the customer in December 2022 near his home in Aldershot in Hampshire.
She was not employed by Deliveroo, but had been working as a "substitute" rider using someone else's account.
The judge at Winchester Crown Court described it as a "serious offence", which could result in a prison sentence.
Deliveroo said it was an "awful incident", adding it had ended the rider's account.
But it's encouraging that other senior GOP figures are saying no to Trump.
Take Wiltshire. Labour were third in the initial 2021 PCC election, but it was very close with them and the LDs for second, with the Tories miles ahead. They had to do a rerun and Labour actually came fourth that time, but turnout was way down and it seems people were rolling in behind an Independent.
This time around Labour are doing much better nationally and the Tories much worse and Swindon, the most Labour part of Wiltshire (and where the c ouncil just flipped to Labour after 20 years) has some elections whilst the Wiltshire Council area, much more strongly Conservative, does not.
If Labour don't win it this time they never will. I'd still put money on the Tories winning there, but several others will surely be at risk as well.
actually have a take that is even more controversial than this. Not only is it the case that human societies would flourish and people would be happier if women aged 18-40 were banned from the full-time, paid workforce so they could raise children
It is furthermore the case that the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.
i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives
https://x.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975?s=20
International study reveals 42% of people aged 18 to 35 supportive of military rule, against 20% of older respondents”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/11/younger-people-more-relaxed-alternatives-democracy-survey
There’s this thing called “google”; you should try it
I'd put money on Pence still voting for Trump though.
It's a bare handful saying it though. Are any a big shock though?
Best case scenario that sort of thing gives tacit encouragement to former Trump voting waverers to at least stay home this time.
A notable improvement.
I shall be sure to tell my female boss that is all women do in the workplace, and I suspect it will prove to be true I get fired or demoted as a result, for shame. No other possibilities exist.
... Ah I see the issue
Though I did get a tad freaked out when I looked up the credit history of '1, Buckingham Place' (home of 'The Prisoner'/'Number 6') and got a big flashy "THIS HAS BEEN LOGGED" on my 'terminal'.
I've since realised it was likely a fellow (if older) geek just playing with me. The b*stard.
For the record I expect the Tories to poll around the 29-30 level. My prediction in the contest was, I think, for a Labour majority of 58.
I don't think that gap will be closed by Refuk voters returning "home". But by swing voters and differential turnout.
There is no enthusiasm for a Labour government.
There is plenty for a non-Tory one. A Labour majority is becoming baked in.
Once it is fully accepted that Labour will form the next government, the Labour vote will decline. We may be headed for a record low turnout.
Davey is boring but decent, and anything can happen in a campaign. How would a Nick Clegg moment affect things?