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The King might bugger up the plans of Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    Otherwise known as the surprise test paradox - and unresolvable genuine paradox it is.

    Also similar is the last biscuit paradox, after the lady who wrote to the biscuit maker complaining that the last biscuit in the packet was always broken so it would be sensible to leave it out.

    Because of these and other reasons, Rishi being a philosopher, he will resolve the surprise test paradox by going for late September.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,173

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    That also works if you look backwards - allows an autumn statement in September that is seen on the October and November pay packets, and time to wrap things up after the autumn conferences
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    Yes very good. This does make an important point: the longer Sunak delays the less control he has over the timing. That's probably why most GEs have been called after about 4 years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    stodge said:

    @JustStop_Oil
    🚨 BREAKING: Just Stop Oil Supporters Disrupt Emily Thornberry

    🔥 Casper and Genevieve threw orange confetti and confronted her after she ignored the letter we delivered last week.

    🛢️
    @EmilyThornberry must commit to leaving Labour if they fail to cancel Tory oil and gas.


    https://x.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1770093336726028624?s=20

    Lol "Casper and Genevieve". I bet they went to the local comp.

    I bet Casper and Genevieve are those posh bellends who try and pass themselves off as working class people.
    Really, we're picking on people because of their names?

    You can do better than that.
    If you knew what my real first name is, you’d have a field day!

    And no, I’m keeping schtum.
    Got to be something monarchical ...
    Caractacus ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    • Mads Mikkelsen
    • Viggo Mortensen
    • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
    • Lars von Trier
    • Hans Christian Andersen
    • Scarlett Johansson (technically)
    • Niels Bohr
    • Søren Kierkegaard
    • Tycho Brahe
    • Helena Christensen
    • Sandi Toksvig
    • Nicolas Winding Refn
    Carl Nielsen
    Hamlet
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,287
    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    So nothing to do with Michael Hutchence
    Falsely maligned:

    "Although Paula Yates contradicted earlier statements she had made by saying during a 1999 interview that Michael Hutchence's 1997 death might have been caused by autoerotic asphyxiation,[16] the coronial inquest found it to be suicide due to a combination of depression and intoxication with alcohol and other drugs.[17]"

    Now, David Carradine on the other hand... bang to rights.
    And Stephen Milligan.

    Never realised that about Hutchence. Urban Myth becomes accepted fact.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited March 19
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443
    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    No. The PM remains in office throughout the election campaign and beyond, until they resign. They are not re-appointed after an election, so no kissing of hands.
    I thought technically the Prime Minister, having lost the ability to command a majority in the Commons following the election, has to go to the monarch and tender his or her resignation and then invites or suggests to the monarch they ask the party leader who can now command a majority to form a new administration.

    The bit I've never quite understood is if you stand against an incumbent MP at a General Election and then win the seat, do you become the MP as soon as the result is announced or at some other point. Once the Returning Officer declares you duly elected, is that the moment you become an MP?

    The successful former opposition leader is invited to the Palace and upon receiving the commission to form a new administration from the monarch, becomes Prime Minister so the only interregnum is between the formal resignation of the previous incumbent and the acceptance of the commission by the incoming leader (just a few minutes).
    Interesting question about when you become an MP.

    One point that might help of course is that technically there is no such thing as an incumbent MP at a GE. They all stop being MPs when Parliament is dissolved. So I assume that the successful candidate does not start being an MP until Parliament is reconvened after the election?
    I think the person becomes a MP when declared ("And I do hereby declare that Ryan Ryan is duly elected") but until they take the oath they don't have the privileges of a MP

    Although I am actually making that up: I don't know.

    I'm just assuming based on analogy (the Prince became the King at the moment of his mother's death but was not recognised as such until the Accession Council and the Proclamation).
    It's a difficult question - like the question of at what point in a marriage ceremony do the partners go from being unmarried to married. There must be one but it is uncertain.

    A piece of data is that the SF elected people who don't take the oath at no point are regarded as leaving the seat vacant; this must mean that from the point of declaration (subject to challenge under election law) there is no vacancy, and to that extent the unoathed candidate is an MP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
    "It's not right, but it's ok. We're gonna vote for them anyway."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    I'm not sure if they do or not - they serve at His Majesty's pleasure, and if the outcome of an election does not change who has the confidence of the House, is there an actual requirement to re-up as it were? They don't actually serve terms after all.

    I don't remember if Cameron, May, or Boris did, but even if they did was it necessary?
    Boris Johnson visited Buckingham Palace to meet the Queen 1
    I find myself thinking of the late Queen quite a lot at the moment.

    It obviously wasn’t the Conservatives’ fault but her death is just one more of the ghastly things to have happened during this parliament. And that awful, awful, awful, moment when, masked and grieving for her beloved husband, she sat alone in the Abbey, whilst her PM & Co were having a piss up in Downing St.

    We will look back on these years with horror. Almost everything that could have gone wrong, has.
    And it’s going to get worse. AI is coming


    You can quote me on that
    I didn't know you were concerned about AI.

    What you should do to really make the point is sh1t-post constantly about it like some kind of bellend.
    That’s it. I’m never going to post again. Someone so effete they can’t write the word “shit” has called me a “bellend”

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
    "It's not right, but it's ok. We're gonna vote for them anyway."
    "Didn't we almost have it all? The night we stormed the Capitol?"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    I'm not sure if they do or not - they serve at His Majesty's pleasure, and if the outcome of an election does not change who has the confidence of the House, is there an actual requirement to re-up as it were? They don't actually serve terms after all.

    I don't remember if Cameron, May, or Boris did, but even if they did was it necessary?
    Boris Johnson visited Buckingham Palace to meet the Queen 1
    I find myself thinking of the late Queen quite a lot at the moment.

    It obviously wasn’t the Conservatives’ fault but her death is just one more of the ghastly things to have happened during this parliament. And that awful, awful, awful, moment when, masked and grieving for her beloved husband, she sat alone in the Abbey, whilst her PM & Co were having a piss up in Downing St.

    We will look back on these years with horror. Almost everything that could have gone wrong, has.
    And it’s going to get worse. AI is coming


    You can quote me on that
    I didn't know you were concerned about AI.

    What you should do to really make the point is sh1t-post constantly about it like some kind of bellend.
    That’s it. I’m never going to post again. Someone so effete they can’t write the word “shit” has called me a “bellend”

    Oh sh1t, Leon (or one of SeanT's bellend aliases) is never going to post again!

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. :)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526
    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Or. You could man up and walk.
    Really earn that beer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
    The dirt roads crumble away and it’s really steep. You can quite see it in the photo.

    Fuck it. That’s too hairy. There must be an easier way on to the main road
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,071
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
    Looks like tracks curve to the right in the direction of the chap, I’d try that route slowly.

    But dear God, how are we talking about this rubbish?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    No. The PM remains in office throughout the election campaign and beyond, until they resign. They are not re-appointed after an election, so no kissing of hands.
    I thought technically the Prime Minister, having lost the ability to command a majority in the Commons following the election, has to go to the monarch and tender his or her resignation and then invites or suggests to the monarch they ask the party leader who can now command a majority to form a new administration.

    The bit I've never quite understood is if you stand against an incumbent MP at a General Election and then win the seat, do you become the MP as soon as the result is announced or at some other point. Once the Returning Officer declares you duly elected, is that the moment you become an MP?

    The successful former opposition leader is invited to the Palace and upon receiving the commission to form a new administration from the monarch, becomes Prime Minister so the only interregnum is between the formal resignation of the previous incumbent and the acceptance of the commission by the incoming leader (just a few minutes).
    Interesting question about when you become an MP.

    One point that might help of course is that technically there is no such thing as an incumbent MP at a GE. They all stop being MPs when Parliament is dissolved. So I assume that the successful candidate does not start being an MP until Parliament is reconvened after the election?
    I think the person becomes a MP when declared ("And I do hereby declare that Ryan Ryan is duly elected") but until they take the oath they don't have the privileges of a MP

    Although I am actually making that up: I don't know.

    I'm just assuming based on analogy (the Prince became the King at the moment of his mother's death but was not recognised as such until the Accession Council and the Proclamation).
    It's a difficult question - like the question of at what point in a marriage ceremony do the partners go from being unmarried to married. There must be one but it is uncertain.

    A piece of data is that the SF elected people who don't take the oath at no point are regarded as leaving the seat vacant; this must mean that from the point of declaration (subject to challenge under election law) there is no vacancy, and to that extent the unoathed candidate is an MP.
    That makes sense and matches my assumption. As for marriage, consider "I now pronounce you man and wife" vs signing the register.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    glw said:

    Watching the Trump interview on GBeebies.

    0-bonkers in 5 seconds, and he's getting worse the longer it goes on.

    I read a transcript of one of his recent speeches the other day, well technically I read about half of it as it was too much for me, one thing very noticeable is the way his mind keeps flitting back to past grievances. Anyone who would vote for or otherwise support this lunatic, who plainly is more focused on staying out of jail and taking revenge than doing anything useful, must themselves be a pretty awful person. God help us if he elected again, the whole world will be in trouble.
    You have just condemned nearly half the american population as "pretty awful people". Not a good look.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    I'm not sure if they do or not - they serve at His Majesty's pleasure, and if the outcome of an election does not change who has the confidence of the House, is there an actual requirement to re-up as it were? They don't actually serve terms after all.

    I don't remember if Cameron, May, or Boris did, but even if they did was it necessary?
    Boris Johnson visited Buckingham Palace to meet the Queen 1
    I find myself thinking of the late Queen quite a lot at the moment.

    It obviously wasn’t the Conservatives’ fault but her death is just one more of the ghastly things to have happened during this parliament. And that awful, awful, awful, moment when, masked and grieving for her beloved husband, she sat alone in the Abbey, whilst her PM & Co were having a piss up in Downing St.

    We will look back on these years with horror. Almost everything that could have gone wrong, has.
    And it’s going to get worse. AI is coming


    You can quote me on that
    I didn't know you were concerned about AI.

    What you should do to really make the point is sh1t-post constantly about it like some kind of bellend.
    That’s it. I’m never going to post again. Someone so effete they can’t write the word “shit” has called me a “bellend”

    Has he rung rings round you?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ...
    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
    "It's not right, but it's ok. We're gonna vote for them anyway."
    "Didn't we almost have it all? The night we stormed the Capitol?"
    Do we sing that to the tune of "Day trip to Bangor " by Fiddlers Dram?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,207
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    • Mads Mikkelsen
    • Viggo Mortensen
    • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
    • Lars von Trier
    • Hans Christian Andersen
    • Scarlett Johansson (technically)
    • Niels Bohr
    • Søren Kierkegaard
    • Tycho Brahe
    • Helena Christensen
    • Sandi Toksvig
    • Nicolas Winding Refn
    Carl Nielsen
    Hamlet
    Bertel Thorvaldsen

    (only 'great' in the sense that Sandi might be)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited March 19
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    Some pretty good scientists - Niels Bohr, for example.

    (Edit) I see someone else already did that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
    The dirt roads crumble away and it’s really steep. You can quite see it in the photo.

    Fuck it. That’s too hairy. There must be an easier way on to the main road
    Walk. You have these things called legs. You might have heard of them. They're rather odd things, but you seem rather obsessed with the small, stubby, dangly things that hangs between them, so start with those and work outwards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
    The dirt roads crumble away and it’s really steep. You can quite see it in the photo.

    Fuck it. That’s too hairy. There must be an easier way on to the main road
    Walk. You have these things called legs. You might have heard of them. They're rather odd things, but you seem rather obsessed with the small, stubby, dangly things that hangs between them, so start with those and work outwards.
    Walk outwards, shurely?

    As for the other bits mentioned, you wa...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    I haven't read - or seen an issue of - Scientific American for what feels like decades. I miss it. I would pick up an issues in WH Smiths, a railway station, or an airport. But I don't seem to see it any more.
    SFX. I used to buy it regularly. Haven't done so now for many years. :(
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,742
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    • Mads Mikkelsen
    • Viggo Mortensen
    • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
    • Lars von Trier
    • Hans Christian Andersen
    • Scarlett Johansson (technically)
    • Niels Bohr
    • Søren Kierkegaard
    • Tycho Brahe
    • Helena Christensen
    • Sandi Toksvig
    • Nicolas Winding Refn
    No love for Sofie Gråbøl I see.

    Noted
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526

    ...

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
    "It's not right, but it's ok. We're gonna vote for them anyway."
    "Didn't we almost have it all? The night we stormed the Capitol?"
    Do we sing that to the tune of "Day trip to Bangor " by Fiddlers Dram?
    Well, you can try:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didn't_We_Almost_Have_It_All
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,742
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Why do you need speed? At least try it normally first. Diagonal approach reduces the angle.
    Are you my drug dealer, circa 1994?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Leon said:

    I’m in the fucking Wild West here. I need cash. This town has no ATMs. It has dirt roads. I can’t buy beer

    But the only way up to the main road is ascending THIS on to a very busy main road. That’s a car killer

    I’d have to take it at speed, hope it doesn’t break the car then at the same time hope there’s not a massive truck barrelling down the highway as I come squirting off this side road



    OR, go without beer at 36C

    Are you in some **** off American truck or a Renault Clio? So that's your problem, get the Speccie to put you a proper hire car for a travel writer of your standing.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,872
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    I'm not sure if they do or not - they serve at His Majesty's pleasure, and if the outcome of an election does not change who has the confidence of the House, is there an actual requirement to re-up as it were? They don't actually serve terms after all.

    I don't remember if Cameron, May, or Boris did, but even if they did was it necessary?
    Boris Johnson visited Buckingham Palace to meet the Queen 1
    I find myself thinking of the late Queen quite a lot at the moment.

    It obviously wasn’t the Conservatives’ fault but her death is just one more of the ghastly things to have happened during this parliament. And that awful, awful, awful, moment when, masked and grieving for her beloved husband, she sat alone in the Abbey, whilst her PM & Co were having a piss up in Downing St.

    We will look back on these years with horror. Almost everything that could have gone wrong, has.
    And it’s going to get worse. AI is coming


    You can quote me on that
    I didn't know you were concerned about AI.

    What you should do to really make the point is sh1t-post constantly about it like some kind of bellend.
    That’s it. I’m never going to post again. Someone so effete they can’t write the word “shit” has called me a “bellend”

    Has he rung rings round you?
    Run like the clappers?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526
    darkage said:

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
    The democratic incentives and voter knowledge of local goverment funding are both fucked. But the last time a government touched local taxation we got riots. No one's going to touch it again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373
    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    I haven't read - or seen an issue of - Scientific American for what feels like decades. I miss it. I would pick up an issues in WH Smiths, a railway station, or an airport. But I don't seem to see it any more.
    SFX. I used to buy it regularly. Haven't done so now for many years. :(
    I got the very first issue of Edge magazine, from a newsagent in North London. It was brilliant. I occasionally buy a copy, and it's cr@p.

    I've still got that first issue somewhere. It's probably worth tuppence....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_(magazine)
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    darkage said:

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
    Social care is a scandal. I know a lady who was refused financial help because apparently she was able to walk. She died a week later.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Actually, on the subject of ReFuck, I see Tice is aggrieved that we all call him far right.

    And do you know, I think he has a point.

    We should call them what they really are.

    And the problem with the Refuckers is that on every single issue, they're far wrong.

    "Vote Reform. You won't go far wrong."
    Well, their voters certainly won't be right.
    That's music to Tice's ears..
    Exactly.

    We should keep calling his voters out as wrong until none are left.
    "It's not right, but it's ok. We're gonna vote for them anyway."
    "Didn't we almost have it all? The night we stormed the Capitol?"
    "Give me one moment in time
    With an absolute majority
    And in that one moment in time
    I will feel sovereignty"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited March 19

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.

    And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,

    Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.

    However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
  • Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Its worrying how social care costs are rising though and bankrupting councils.
    Reasons:
    An ageing population though that has been the same for years.
    Unexplained increases in people getting sick and needing long term care.
    Hmmmm
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    darkage said:

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
    Agreed. 40% of Dorset Council spend is on adult social care.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    CatMan said:

    Of course he's going to be the new James Bond, how could it be anyone else?!

    https://x.com/adavies4/status/1770157107943211190?s=20


    He’s a rake, The Drake.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    CatMan said:

    "🚨New post budget polling from @IpsosUK🚨

    Confidence in each party to have a good long term economic plan for Britain?

    Conservatives
    Confident 21%
    Not confident 68%

    Labour
    Confident 31%
    Not confident 56%
    "

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1770155197890748730?s=20

    I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
    Yes, you might have said.

    Every bloody night.

    Give it a rest.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited March 19
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    Niels Bohr says "Hej!"

    Addendum - And so does Tycho Brahe.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,742

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
    This sounds a lot like doing business with HMG. Maybe he is suited for the role.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    • Mads Mikkelsen
    • Viggo Mortensen
    • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
    • Lars von Trier
    • Hans Christian Andersen
    • Scarlett Johansson (technically)
    • Niels Bohr
    • Søren Kierkegaard
    • Tycho Brahe
    • Helena Christensen
    • Sandi Toksvig
    • Nicolas Winding Refn
    No love for Sofie Gråbøl I see.

    Noted
    It's the sweaters, isn't it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    Niels Bohr says "Hej!"
    So does King Cnut.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217
    edited March 19
    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
    Trump just has to delay thinks to the election. But then he has to win the election if not hes toast and will likely have his assets seized and be put in jail. Desperate men do desperate things
    Rigging the election
    Some helpful foreign interference
    Hmmm
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    I haven't read - or seen an issue of - Scientific American for what feels like decades. I miss it. I would pick up an issues in WH Smiths, a railway station, or an airport. But I don't seem to see it any more.
    SFX. I used to buy it regularly. Haven't done so now for many years. :(
    I got the very first issue of Edge magazine, from a newsagent in North London. It was brilliant. I occasionally buy a copy, and it's cr@p.

    I've still got that first issue somewhere. It's probably worth tuppence....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_(magazine)
    IF you had a copy of the first edition of "Screw" magazine, now that REALLY would be something.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Is our suspected Russian troll concern trolling ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
    Had one of those people ring up when I was on the phones for Inland Revenue.
    "Can I have time to pay my tax bill?"
    "No."
    "Oh please, please, please may I have time to pay?"
    "No."
    "If I drop by tomorrow and hand over a cheque will I be in time to avoid late-payment fines?"
    "Yes."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited March 19
    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    "When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands."

    Really? Sounds like he's got YOU fooled REAL good (that is bad) and (im)proper.

    Addendum - Actually, we DO know what the SOB means, too damn well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ...

    CatMan said:

    "🚨New post budget polling from @IpsosUK🚨

    Confidence in each party to have a good long term economic plan for Britain?

    Conservatives
    Confident 21%
    Not confident 68%

    Labour
    Confident 31%
    Not confident 56%
    "

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1770155197890748730?s=20

    I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
    Yes, you might have said.

    Every bloody night.

    Give it a rest.
    Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,207
    Truman said:

    darkage said:

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
    Social care is a scandal. I know a lady who was refused financial help because apparently she was able to walk. She died a week later.
    Did owning Balmoral Castle count against her?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    One interpretation is that Trump & Co want the European countries to pay for American weapons to be sent to Ukraine.

    This is exactly the kind of thing that Trump would see as a win. Someone else pays.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    I haven't read - or seen an issue of - Scientific American for what feels like decades. I miss it. I would pick up an issues in WH Smiths, a railway station, or an airport. But I don't seem to see it any more.
    SFX. I used to buy it regularly. Haven't done so now for many years. :(
    I got the very first issue of Edge magazine, from a newsagent in North London. It was brilliant. I occasionally buy a copy, and it's cr@p.

    I've still got that first issue somewhere. It's probably worth tuppence....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_(magazine)
    :(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    Nigelb said:

    Is our suspected Russian troll concern trolling ?

    Truman? No, just being stupid and dull. He's clearly a robot, and it has to be a little depressing that he's quite so uninspiring as such.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    One interpretation is that Trump & Co want the European countries to pay for American weapons to be sent to Ukraine.

    This is exactly the kind of thing that Trump would see as a win. Someone else pays.
    Maybe, but I don't get the sense that he cares about the budget deficit. He cares about getting his cut, and he is friendlier with dictators than with democrats.

    He'd provide weapons to Russia if he personally received a bigger percentage on the sale as a result.
  • darkage said:

    Unless I missed it no one seems to have higher CT than the poor residents of Sturminster Newton, Dorset.

    Band A £1763.57; B £2057.50; C £2351.42; D £2645.35; E £3233.20; F £3821.06; H £4408.92; G £5290.70

    It makes little sense to me that social care - which forms the vast part of the budget - should be funded through Council tax. It would make more sense if was the responsibility of the state and funded through general taxation.
    I agree the system is broken, and that much of the funding comes from Council Tax. But funding formulas mean it isn't really correct that general taxation plays no role, or that areas with a lot of OAPs are hammered at the expense of those with fewer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Nigelb said:

    Is our suspected Russian troll concern trolling ?

    He's trying to sow doubt about the legitimacy of Trump's reelection. Luckily @SeaShantyIrish2 is on hand to push back strongly against this idea.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
    Had one of those people ring up when I was on the phones for Inland Revenue.
    "Can I have time to pay my tax bill?"
    "No."
    "Oh please, please, please may I have time to pay?"
    "No."
    "If I drop by tomorrow and hand over a cheque will I be in time to avoid late-payment fines?"
    "Yes."
    Back under the Coaltion (IIRC) HMRC was *years* late in paying a refund to a company. Finally, a judge gave the company a judgement and the bailiffs went into to seize assets.

    Within a day, they passed an emergency law to prevent such judgements against government entities (again IIRC).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    Niels Bohr says "Hej!"

    Addendum - And so does Tycho Brahe.
    Hans Christian Ørsted - discovered both electromagnetism and aluminium.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited March 19

    ...

    CatMan said:

    "🚨New post budget polling from @IpsosUK🚨

    Confidence in each party to have a good long term economic plan for Britain?

    Conservatives
    Confident 21%
    Not confident 68%

    Labour
    Confident 31%
    Not confident 56%
    "

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1770155197890748730?s=20

    I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
    Yes, you might have said.

    Every bloody night.

    Give it a rest.
    Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
    From a mysterious radio station where only the last remaining Tory voters on earth are allowed on air?

    No doubt you will back tomorrow to tell us Rachel Reeves speech has bombed according to every caller. Though BJO will have beaten you to it by about 18 hours.

    BJO any second will ask us to explain why the stormtrooper helmeted one’s speech was so Tory and lacking detail, Sunak himself could have given it. 5, 4, 3, 2…
  • ...

    CatMan said:

    "🚨New post budget polling from @IpsosUK🚨

    Confidence in each party to have a good long term economic plan for Britain?

    Conservatives
    Confident 21%
    Not confident 68%

    Labour
    Confident 31%
    Not confident 56%
    "

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1770155197890748730?s=20

    I listen to a lot of LBC. Callers seem as fed up with Labour as they are the Conservatives. I believe the "Labour are as bad as us, stick with the Devil you know" might be working. 1992 Redux!
    Yes, you might have said.

    Every bloody night.

    Give it a rest.
    Don't shoot the messenger. I am merely passing on vital electoral anecdota.
    We are just concerned that you have put all your money on the Cons winning the next GE. I mean with you being so sure it would be crazy not to have!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.

    And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,

    Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.

    However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
    Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.

    You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...

    ...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.

    If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    Correction: . . . has he gone bankrupt AGAIN?

    By his own (inherently suspect) accounting Trump has already been bankrupt FOUR times.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited March 19
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
    Jeez, do you really buy this shit? Trump 'is going to find a way of ending the war'?

    Beyond capitulation, Trump has no idea on how to end the war. Typically, he comes out with this type of bullshit soundbite and delivers nothing - it would be the same with this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
    "We will end the war by causing more war" is not a firm strategy for ending the war.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Demanding that European members of NATO "pay their fair share" is a VERY old and frequent demand made by US politicos. At least ever since yours truly has been around to hear it.

    Difference with Trump, is that he is the FIRST major US politico, to make it CRYSTAL CLEAR that he really wants America OUT of NATO.

    So his "pledge" is worthless BS, as per usual.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.

    And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,

    Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.

    However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
    Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.

    You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...

    ...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.

    If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
    If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    Correction: . . . has he gone bankrupt AGAIN?

    By his own (inherently suspect) accounting Trump has already been bankrupt FOUR times.
    Were those actual bankruptcies? I assumed (but do not know) they were that Chapter 11 nonsense you have across the Pond, whereby you shaft your creditors and waltz off with their money.

    I was thinking *real* bankruptcy, as in, business failure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Retired Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley calls absolute bullsh*t on one of trump’s favorite claims….Biden left $80+B of US equipment for the Taliban….
    https://twitter.com/leslsenior/status/1770152229439516964
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,344
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
    He'll end the war by letting Putin win.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    Correction: . . . has he gone bankrupt AGAIN?

    By his own (inherently suspect) accounting Trump has already been bankrupt FOUR times.
    Were those actual bankruptcies? I assumed (but do not know) they were that Chapter 11 nonsense you have across the Pond, whereby you shaft your creditors and waltz off with their money.

    I was thinking *real* bankruptcy, as in, business failure.
    Business bankrupty isn't personal bankrupty. People like him don't involve too much of their own money in each scheme.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    HYUFD said:

    The fact the Commonwealth summit is in mid October and the King needs to attend really should not be an issue. Sunak knows it has been in the diary for months

    Indeed. From Sunak's point of view, if he's decided to have an autumn election, any autumn date is as good as any other. But there some dates best avoided for other practical or political reasons:

    Avoid:
    - Any date before mid-October: Parliament would have to be recalled from summer recess to dissolve; conference season would have to be cancelled - reasonable notice required.
    - 17th Oct - KC about to go to Samoa, could be tricky if it's a hung parliament requiring long negotiation.
    - 24th Oct - KC in Samoa.
    - 31st Oct - Halloween: nightmare on Downing St
    - 7th Nov - two days after the US POTUS election, not a good idea.
    - 19th Dec - too close to Christmas
    - 26th Dec - obviously not
    - 2nd Jan - Er no.
    - 9th Jan - Christmas/NY would severely restrict campaigning.
    - 16th Jan - As above, also smacks of last-chance saloon.
    - 23rd - ditto.

    So I reckon it will have to be: 14th, 21st, 28th Nov, or 5th, 12th Dec.

    12th December has a degree of symbolism to it - 5 years to the day the Tories won an 80 seat majority.

    It's going to be 12th December, isn't it?
    This is good analysis. It’s not about 1 day, it’s the 25 campaigning days that can’t overlap a holiday period.

    And if you want a cheeky budget, it’s extra few weeks before campaign month to get parliament sitting to pass it. But is there time to see it in household budgets, or better not to have budget, just promise the details in manifesto? Recent Budgets are quite internally contentious for Tories, defence spending needs the limited pot of money, pensioners need it, by the time autumn comes the households hurt by high mortgage deals will ask for it,

    Parliament is now due back 2nd September, the six weeks before that you just can’t hold one. You are right to flag up there arn’t that many dates.

    However, conferences can go ahead inside campaign month - why not? The only party who would want to cancel conference would be Tories, for despite how much of money it makes for the party, it would just be giving opposition parties too much fantastic election boost.
    Thanks. I thought about the conferences issue.

    You may right, perhaps they could go ahead during the campaign but I foresee all sorts of balance issues for the broadcasters. Plus, how do the parties juggle being out on the stump and locked away together at their conference? No, I think they'll can the conferences as soon as the GE is called...

    ...which brings us back to the other issue: Parliament has to be recalled early from summer recess to push the dissolution through.

    If Sunak is going to do that he might as well name the day now.
    If the conferences and everything with it, is to be canned, that will have to be public knowledge quite early on for the cancellations to happen, and further bookings and arrangements avoided? Before summer recess?
    True dat. Hence why I suspect the later autumn dates are favourite.

    All could change after a disastrous set of Locals though. If the Tories crash badly, let's see how quickly they all turn on Sunak.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,344
    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    No. The PM remains in office throughout the election campaign and beyond, until they resign. They are not re-appointed after an election, so no kissing of hands.
    I thought technically the Prime Minister, having lost the ability to command a majority in the Commons following the election, has to go to the monarch and tender his or her resignation and then invites or suggests to the monarch they ask the party leader who can now command a majority to form a new administration.

    The bit I've never quite understood is if you stand against an incumbent MP at a General Election and then win the seat, do you become the MP as soon as the result is announced or at some other point. Once the Returning Officer declares you duly elected, is that the moment you become an MP?

    The successful former opposition leader is invited to the Palace and upon receiving the commission to form a new administration from the monarch, becomes Prime Minister so the only interregnum is between the formal resignation of the previous incumbent and the acceptance of the commission by the incoming leader (just a few minutes).
    Interesting question about when you become an MP.

    One point that might help of course is that technically there is no such thing as an incumbent MP at a GE. They all stop being MPs when Parliament is dissolved. So I assume that the successful candidate does not start being an MP until Parliament is reconvened after the election?
    I think the person becomes a MP when declared ("And I do hereby declare that Ryan Ryan is duly elected") but until they take the oath they don't have the privileges of a MP

    Although I am actually making that up: I don't know.

    I'm just assuming based on analogy (the Prince became the King at the moment of his mother's death but was not recognised as such until the Accession Council and the Proclamation).
    I am basing my thoughts on the fact that an MP stops being an MP as soon as Parliament is dissolved. Hence the assumption that the winner of the seat does not become an MP until Parliament is reconvened.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,853
    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited March 19

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
    He'll end the war by letting Putin win.
    There are two ways to end the war - lose it, or win it by defeating the invasion. As Putin has made very clear.
    Trump has no interest in the second.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,071

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Trump, has he gone bankrupt yet?

    We've gone past...

    Stage 1) Massive fine Trump can't afford
    Stage 2) No company willing to post bond for Trump that is needed for him to appeal the massive fine from Stage 1

    Next up comes:
    Stage 3) Fire sell of properties to post the bond
    Stage 4) Whoever he has borrowed from secured on said properties demand repayment

    Until...
    Stage 5) Trump fails to pay back one of his debtors and then has more people coming after him...
    Maybe. Another interpretation is that Trump's entire business model has always been one of never settling an invoice until he really, absolutely has no choice.

    You get these people in business. Only worth doing anything for if you're paid in full in advance.

    Arguing for delay or reduction in the bond he needs to post is consistent with either - Trump being pot-less, or Trump being Trump.
    True, but equally he has always leveraged up his businesses as much as possible.

    So if he needs to raise $500m of cash he may need to sell $1.5bn of property.

    Or it might be more than that.

    An unexpected half billion could be the tipping point to financial difficulty, even if it doesn't knock him out completely.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    @JustStop_Oil
    🚨 BREAKING: Just Stop Oil Supporters Disrupt Emily Thornberry

    🔥 Casper and Genevieve threw orange confetti and confronted her after she ignored the letter we delivered last week.

    🛢️
    @EmilyThornberry must commit to leaving Labour if they fail to cancel Tory oil and gas.


    https://x.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1770093336726028624?s=20

    Lol "Casper and Genevieve". I bet they went to the local comp.

    I bet Casper and Genevieve are those posh bellends who try and pass themselves off as working class people.
    Really, we're picking on people because of their names?

    You can do better than that.
    If you knew what my real first name is, you’d have a field day!

    And no, I’m keeping schtum.
    Got to be something monarchical ...
    Caractacus ?
    No. Nor is it Cymbeline.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    In the predictions I went for Nov 28, as Rishi (or his successor) could attend the Commonwealth Jolly and ask the King whilst there to dissolve parliament on October 24th.

    All done and dusted for Christmas in Santa Monica...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443

    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361

    SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.

    I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    edited March 19

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    GB News headline: America WILL '100%' stay in Nato: Donald Trump vows to back EU countries IF they 'pay their fair share'

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/us/donald-trump-nato-pay-up-usa-took-advantage-latest-news

    Their 'fare share' being a donation to the Trump court fine fund pre-November 24? ;)
    Building up military capability in western Europe is the only way to contain Russia. European countries need to become active partners in NATO rather than just the beneficiaries of American protection. The latter may have been an acceptable arrangement to the US when there was no real threat from Russia but now the situation has changed in a number of ways.

    When Trump just says things clearly like this, everyone understands. It also sounds good to his supporters. Foreign affairs is one way in which 'the establishment' is failing badly. IE: Ukraine being supported only to the point where there is a war of attrition that they gradually lose, with no end in sight or way out. Yet supporters of the war in Ukraine keep asserting that Trump will 'give up Ukraine' with no evidence to back this up.
    Trump's supporters in Congress have blocked further US military support for several months now. That's pretty damn obvious.
    A fair point, but I think they are arguing that it is the strategy they are opposed to, given the lack of gains for the past year. The position of Trump is that he is going to find a way of ending the war, which is a contrast to Biden who seems to have no plan.
    Jeez, do you really buy this shit? Trump 'is going to find a way of ending the war'?

    Beyond capitulation, Trump has no idea on how to end the war. Typically, he comes out with this type of bullshit soundbite and delivers nothing - it would be the same with this.
    Deleted. I don't want to go down the 'ukraine' rabbit hole.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    @JustStop_Oil
    🚨 BREAKING: Just Stop Oil Supporters Disrupt Emily Thornberry

    🔥 Casper and Genevieve threw orange confetti and confronted her after she ignored the letter we delivered last week.

    🛢️
    @EmilyThornberry must commit to leaving Labour if they fail to cancel Tory oil and gas.


    https://x.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1770093336726028624?s=20

    Lol "Casper and Genevieve". I bet they went to the local comp.

    I bet Casper and Genevieve are those posh bellends who try and pass themselves off as working class people.
    Really, we're picking on people because of their names?

    You can do better than that.
    If you knew what my real first name is, you’d have a field day!

    And no, I’m keeping schtum.
    Got to be something monarchical ...
    Caractacus ?
    No. Nor is it Cymbeline.
    Arthur (Scargill) hence King Coal.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,207
    Breaking news.

    TSE's crown as the (unelected) king of headline writers has been usurped by the BBC.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-68609706
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage interview with Trump on GB news now

    I would rather watch paint dry or even Emmerdale !!
    I’m watching an Avengers episode, Death of a Great Dane.
    Is that like a Famous Belgian?

    (Sorry - off out now.)
    Are there any Great Danes ? Ole Mortensen who played cricket for Derbyshire. The Laudrups and musician Victor Borge.

    This is a dog in the avengers episode.
    Niels Bohr says "Hej!"

    Addendum - And so does Tycho Brahe.
    Hans Christian Ørsted - discovered both electromagnetism and aluminium.
    Ole Worm. Antiquarian and natural historian and bit of everythingian - had a great museum.

    https://collections.reading.ac.uk/special-collections/2020/05/12/a-cabinet-of-curiosities-ole-worms-museum-wormianum-1655/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Why would the King's travel plans make a difference? The assumption has to be that Sunak will continue as PM after the election.

    Even a returning PM has to kiss KC's hand after an election, shirley?
    No. The PM remains in office throughout the election campaign and beyond, until they resign. They are not re-appointed after an election, so no kissing of hands.
    I thought technically the Prime Minister, having lost the ability to command a majority in the Commons following the election, has to go to the monarch and tender his or her resignation and then invites or suggests to the monarch they ask the party leader who can now command a majority to form a new administration.

    The bit I've never quite understood is if you stand against an incumbent MP at a General Election and then win the seat, do you become the MP as soon as the result is announced or at some other point. Once the Returning Officer declares you duly elected, is that the moment you become an MP?

    The successful former opposition leader is invited to the Palace and upon receiving the commission to form a new administration from the monarch, becomes Prime Minister so the only interregnum is between the formal resignation of the previous incumbent and the acceptance of the commission by the incoming leader (just a few minutes).
    Interesting question about when you become an MP.

    One point that might help of course is that technically there is no such thing as an incumbent MP at a GE. They all stop being MPs when Parliament is dissolved. So I assume that the successful candidate does not start being an MP until Parliament is reconvened after the election?
    I think the person becomes a MP when declared ("And I do hereby declare that Ryan Ryan is duly elected") but until they take the oath they don't have the privileges of a MP

    Although I am actually making that up: I don't know.

    I'm just assuming based on analogy (the Prince became the King at the moment of his mother's death but was not recognised as such until the Accession Council and the Proclamation).
    I am basing my thoughts on the fact that an MP stops being an MP as soon as Parliament is dissolved. Hence the assumption that the winner of the seat does not become an MP until Parliament is reconvened.
    If that were correct then the SF seats in NI would be vacant on parliament reconvening and await a byelection. (??)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361

    If it helps I can confirm that that is definitely Windsor Farm Shop. I bought some rather nice sausages there a couple of months ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    algarkirk said:

    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361

    SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.

    I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
    It looks very different to either the infamous Mothers day picture or the one in the car with Catherine's mother.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,853
    algarkirk said:

    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361

    SFAICS at no point does this article state as a fact that the image in the video is in fact the princess. It merely says there is no evidence for some particular claims about how it isn't. That's a bit of a gap in the story, and hard to think it's accidental.

    I haven't followed this story. Does anyone know where we are on the actual verification issue?
    It's Kate. Why this obsession with finding conspiracies everywhere? She's dead, it's an entirely different woman, it's a lookalike, it's a robot, it's an AI-generated image, Meghan is made of cheese...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,487

    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    @JustStop_Oil
    🚨 BREAKING: Just Stop Oil Supporters Disrupt Emily Thornberry

    🔥 Casper and Genevieve threw orange confetti and confronted her after she ignored the letter we delivered last week.

    🛢️
    @EmilyThornberry must commit to leaving Labour if they fail to cancel Tory oil and gas.


    https://x.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1770093336726028624?s=20

    Lol "Casper and Genevieve". I bet they went to the local comp.

    I bet Casper and Genevieve are those posh bellends who try and pass themselves off as working class people.
    Really, we're picking on people because of their names?

    You can do better than that.
    If you knew what my real first name is, you’d have a field day!

    And no, I’m keeping schtum.
    Got to be something monarchical ...
    Caractacus ?
    No. Nor is it Cymbeline.
    It is bad enough being named Alan.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNfQda8ceGs
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443

    The BBC on Kate video conspiracy theories, plenty of which were shared here in the previous thread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68609361

    If it helps I can confirm that that is definitely Windsor Farm Shop. I bought some rather nice sausages there a couple of months ago.
    This more adequately links a chain of sausages to the farm Shop than a chain of evidence of identity to the princess.
This discussion has been closed.