Could Corbyn defect to Galloway’s party? – politicalbetting.com
? NEW: George Galloway has compared Israel’s operations in Gaza to the Holocaust, less than an hour after being sworn in as MP for Rochdale ??https://t.co/X2wf7PKCUh
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First !0
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QTWTAIN0
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I've been thinking about my Rochdale predictions, which were too high for all the main parties, and 10% too low for Galloway's roof, which I put at 30%. Apart from an anti-politics feel and being blindsided by Mr Tully, who somebody knew about locally, I think I may have underestimated the Muslim population of Rochdale, for which I took a 2011 census figure of 24%, and the degree to which differential turnout of that population (and non turnout of people for anyone else) could bias the outcome.
On that note, I see EC gives an ethnic white % of 63% for the constituency. I don't know if the figures in each case are whole population or registered voters, and I don't know what sliver is non-White, non-Muslim, but the 24% figure I took was a few % too low in 2024.
I do this not only to cover off Rochdale but to note that Ashton, which I do know better, shows as being 79% white and has a definite non-white, non-Muslim segment, as the most Hindu town in GM after Bolton.
As likely Northern targets for Galloway go, Ashton seems a good way down the list and there is enough red-wallness that I don't see the different Corbyn angle getting him over the Lyne either.1 -
Morning all, and Happy Super Tuesday!
(Spoiler alert, it’s not going to be very super for Nikki Haley).1 -
Isn’t Ange a bit of bogeywoman for the Momentum/Gorgeous gang though? Working class single mum not conforming to what their weird concept and behaviour profile of what ‘working class’ is. Weird how women seem to particularly get their back up.Pro_Rata said:I've been thinking about my Rochdale predictions, which were too high for all the main parties, and 10% too low for Galloway's roof, which I put at 30%. Apart from an anti-politics feel and being blindsided by Mr Tully, who somebody knew about locally, I think I may have underestimated the Muslim population of Rochdale, for which I took a 2011 census figure of 24%, and the degree to which differential turnout of that population (and non turnout of people for anyone else) could bias the outcome.
On that note, I see EC gives an ethnic white % of 63% for the constituency. I don't know if the figures in each case are whole population or registered voters, and I don't know what sliver is non-White, non-Muslim, but the 24% figure I took was a few % too low in 2024.
I do this not only to cover off Rochdale but to note that Ashton, which I do know better, shows as being 79% white and has a definite non-white, non-Muslim segment, as the most Hindu town in GM after Bolton.
As likely Northern targets for Galloway go, Ashton seems a good way down the list and there is enough red-wallness that I don't see the different Corbyn angle getting him over the Lyne either.
Come the GE I would imagine she will comfortably win but face a nasty campaign. Also expect Galloway to lose Rochdale.
Most people in this country don’t give a fuck about Israel/Palestine and certainly won’t decide their vote on this issue.
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Good morning, everyone.
F1: pair of retirements at Alpine. Shockingly poor start to the season for them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68470753
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Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
* personal taste, but I don’t like Hans ‘Honk Honk’ Zimmer.
* the character of Stilgar is somewhat reduced from the book.
* Christopher Walken is poorly cast and, to be honest, not very good. Jose Ferrer from the Lynch adaptation was a much better Emperor.
* The Fenrings are the Tom Bombadil of Dune; they (or rather here, she) does not need including.
Selected upsides:
* the development of Chani as a character is welcome, and a helpful counterpoint as Paul develops away from being the viewer’s proxy protagonist
* all the monochrome Harkonnen stuff looks brilliant. Austin Butler is fantastic.
* Rebecca Ferguson also deserves particular praise, I think.
* As you’d hope, the action is wonderfully choreographed - spectacular, tense and with plenty of heft.
* Ultimately, DV & co. have done a good job of translating a difficult novel to film, retaining the feel and the moral heart.
Interested to know what other PBers thought; I know there are a few Dune fans here.0 -
It looks as though the Ukrainians have converted another Russian warship into permanent submarine status;
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.4 -
That’s quite a few new Black Sea submarines the Russians have acquired in recent months.JosiasJessop said:It looks as though the Ukrainians have converted another Russian warship into permanent submarine status;
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.
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Two sentences that don’t exactly appear to be unrelated.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: pair of retirements at Alpine. Shockingly poor start to the season for them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68470753
They were a distant last in qualifying at the weekend, and now the two senior car designers depart the team this week.0 -
All the laws of rationality, common sense, reasonablenss, compromise, and pragmatism break down on the peripheries of the political spectrum. 🙄1
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The Russophiles must love it when another fascist boat gets sunk.Sandpit said:
That’s quite a few new Black Sea submarines the Russians have acquired in recent months.JosiasJessop said:It looks as though the Ukrainians have converted another Russian warship into permanent submarine status;
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.
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Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.5 -
Can't be true. Ukraine is sliding to inevitable defeat as we are often reminded on PB.comJosiasJessop said:It looks as though the Ukrainians have converted another Russian warship into permanent submarine status;
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.0 -
Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f1 -
Ferguson is generally good; for those with Apple TV, check out Silo.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
* personal taste, but I don’t like Hans ‘Honk Honk’ Zimmer.
* the character of Stilgar is somewhat reduced from the book.
* Christopher Walken is poorly cast and, to be honest, not very good. Jose Ferrer from the Lynch adaptation was a much better Emperor.
* The Fenrings are the Tom Bombadil of Dune; they (or rather here, she) does not need including.
Selected upsides:
* the development of Chani as a character is welcome, and a helpful counterpoint as Paul develops away from being the viewer’s proxy protagonist
* all the monochrome Harkonnen stuff looks brilliant. Austin Butler is fantastic.
* Rebecca Ferguson also deserves particular praise, I think.
* As you’d hope, the action is wonderfully choreographed - spectacular, tense and with plenty of heft.
* Ultimately, DV & co. have done a good job of translating a difficult novel to film, retaining the feel and the moral heart.
Interested to know what other PBers thought; I know there are a few Dune fans here.0 -
They are relying on people having voted for Brexit and still learned nothing…MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.1 -
Neale Hanvey, of course, being a notorious anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist who ‘doesn’t consider himself as one.’Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f0 -
Katy Balls:
Sunak’s warning about the “poison” of extremism could still set the tone for the Conservative election campaign to come.
The official line from Downing Street is that this was a speech aimed at doing the right thing rather than an attempt to weaponise recent events to the Tories’ advantage. But anyone who tells you the speech wasn’t political is not being straight. What’s more, a Tory HQ attack email that went out yesterday let go of any pretence of rising above party politics on the issue. Titled “Rochdale’s new MP”, it attacked Galloway as unfit before declaring: “The blame for his victory lies at the door of Keir Starmer” as “Starmer’s failure to fix antisemitism within his party paved the way for Galloway’s toxic brand of politics to return”.
Tories would like to depict Starmer as weak and unable to take strong positions on these issues for fear of his own party. It means you can expect to hear more about antisemitism and Islamic extremism in the weeks ahead. Sunak will try to depict Starmer as unable to lead here.
The risk is that voters will blame the government for not solving problems rather than praise it for pointing them out. “The speech was the right thing to do on every level,” says one Tory MP. “With the unfortunate omission that a speech largely about leadership essentially contained no action.”
But the most widely shared concern across the Tory tribes is something else: is anyone listening? As one MP, who welcomed Sunak’s intervention, puts it: “I just don’t feel it has any cut-through. I’m not sure anything does. It’s just about marking time until the election and hoping Starmer looks a bit more crap than us.”0 -
I think that costing rather implausible.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.6 -
I have addressed the point.Gardenwalker said:
You haven’t really addressed the point, just made vague references to Anglicanism’s torrid history.BartholomewRoberts said:
Yes, the Church (not just Anglican) has a torrid history.LostPassword said:
People haven't forgotten the soup here. During the famine the Anglican church in Ireland would offer starving people soup on condition that they renounced the Catholic church and joined the Anglican.BartholomewRoberts said:
No.Luckyguy1983 said:...
You're dedicated to promoting your set of beliefs all the live long day; should you apologise retrospectively if anyone ever ends up exchanging their traditional beliefs for one of yours?BartholomewRoberts said:
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?Gardenwalker said:
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).Casino_Royale said:
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.Gardenwalker said:The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
Convincing people via a free exchange of ideas is a good thing.
Convincing people via repression, the barrel of the gun and destroying others beliefs systems is a bad thing.
Hence why democracy is good, and your beloved Moscow is bad.
The problem is the Church didn't simply proselytise in the past, that's a complete rewriting of history. It very much sought to destroy alternatives, via malicious means, which is wrong.
On Shrove Tuesday just past the local Anglican church was offering pancakes, and fortunately matters have improved that sick conditions are no longer attached. But the difference was remarked upon.
To rewrite it as "proselytisation" is a complete rewriting of history.
In the words of Gardenwalker "akin to destroying monuments" (or threats of starvation etc too) is the relevant part of its history that is being discussed.
To pretend history is all sunshine and roses and honest proseltyisation is to just rewrite and deny history, its not.
The Irish case mentioned is shameful of course, but for reasons other than the supposed “destruction of traditional beliefs”.
There is a difference between proselytising while respecting others rights, and seeking to destroy others beliefs through nefarious means.
If you think that history is all sunshine and roses and only honest proselytising happened, I can only suggest you pick up a history book. Because what you're suggesting bears no resemblance at all to real life history.1 -
Reform are not a serious party and make no real pretence at having an agenda for government. Since we now have Brexit I am not sure I see the point but there is clearly a market for those who want simplistic solutions to difficult problems.Foxy said:
I think that costing rather implausible.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.
Given the current spend on the NHS and the pressures on the system I think it inevitable that spending will increase by at least another £30bn a year by the end of the next Parliament. Whether that produces any material benefit in terms of waiting times remains to be seen.0 -
Also, £30bn almost certainly wouldn't do it.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.0 -
What was Brexit, if not a simplistic solution to a difficult problem?DavidL said:
Reform are not a serious party and make no real pretence at having an agenda for government. Since we now have Brexit I am not sure I see the point but there is clearly a market for those who want simplistic solutions to difficult problems.Foxy said:
I think that costing rather implausible.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.
Given the current spend on the NHS and the pressures on the system I think it inevitable that spending will increase by at least another £30bn a year by the end of the next Parliament. Whether that produces any material benefit in terms of waiting times remains to be seen.3 -
Meanwhile they are losing the artillery battle, territory and lives. Largely thanks to the obstructive wing of the Congressional GOP - which includes the Speaker - at Trump's behest.Sandpit said:
That’s quite a few new Black Sea submarines the Russians have acquired in recent months.JosiasJessop said:It looks as though the Ukrainians have converted another Russian warship into permanent submarine status;
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.0 -
fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.0 -
One big Conservative success: education in England over the last 14 years. Worth noting that at no point has its policy touched Wales or Scotland:
"Pupils in England now rank 11th in the world for maths, compared to 27th in 2009, and 13th for reading, compared to 25th. Something remarkable has happened."
"Left-of-centre ministers from the SNP and Labour, in Scotland and Wales respectively, eschewed this approach. For them, knowledge is too traditional and modern-sounding skills are in fashion. Well, now the results are in. Scotland, whose schools were always highly regarded, has fallen steadily in the international rankings and is now behind England in maths and science. For Wales, the Pisa results were the worst ever."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/welsh-education-failure-is-a-lesson-for-labour-f6trs0d6t1 -
It was a simplistic solution to a non-existent problemStuartinromford said:What was Brexit, if not a simplistic solution to a difficult problem?
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Mr. Romford, would that we'd had the Lisbon referendum.0
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Most films these days are too long by 30 minutes. I blame Martin Scorcese.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
[huge sniperooni]
To check it is not just my ageing bladder, a quick Bing finds the average run times of the top 10 films has risen each decade:-
2022 — average 141 minutes
2021 — average 131 minutes
2011 — average 122 minutes
2001 — average 126 minutes
1991 - average 117 minutes
1981 — average 110 minutes
https://www.whattowatch.com/features/are-movies-really-getting-longer
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I suspect there’s the competitive influence of high-quality TV series as well.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Most films these days are too long by 30 minutes. I blame Martin Scorcese.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
[huge sniperooni]
To check it is not just my ageing bladder, a quick Bing finds the average run times of the top 10 films has risen each decade:-
2022 — average 141 minutes
2021 — average 131 minutes
2011 — average 122 minutes
2001 — average 126 minutes
1991 - average 117 minutes
1981 — average 110 minutes
https://www.whattowatch.com/features/are-movies-really-getting-longer
90 mins is about the perfect length for a film, maybe stretching back to 80 and on to 120. Exceptions to this really have to make their case through quality (e.g. Godfather).3 -
Hardly surprising. For all his faults, Corbyn is a party man, and Galloway's main interest is self-advancement. Galloway seeks to harm Labour; Corbyn disagrees with the party leadership on how best to advance Labour.Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f3 -
Why didn't you use the 2021 census? Were the figures not available?Pro_Rata said:I've been thinking about my Rochdale predictions, which were too high for all the main parties, and 10% too low for Galloway's roof, which I put at 30%. Apart from an anti-politics feel and being blindsided by Mr Tully, who somebody knew about locally, I think I may have underestimated the Muslim population of Rochdale, for which I took a 2011 census figure of 24%, and the degree to which differential turnout of that population (and non turnout of people for anyone else) could bias the outcome.
On that note, I see EC gives an ethnic white % of 63% for the constituency. I don't know if the figures in each case are whole population or registered voters, and I don't know what sliver is non-White, non-Muslim, but the 24% figure I took was a few % too low in 2024.
I do this not only to cover off Rochdale but to note that Ashton, which I do know better, shows as being 79% white and has a definite non-white, non-Muslim segment, as the most Hindu town in GM after Bolton.
As likely Northern targets for Galloway go, Ashton seems a good way down the list and there is enough red-wallness that I don't see the different Corbyn angle getting him over the Lyne either.0 -
Interesting talk that Blue Origin will acquire ULA.
https://spacenews.com/space-force-top-buyer-keenly-watching-ula-and-blue-origin-they-need-to-scale/
The US government clearly wants an alternative provider to SpaceX, and they're going to keep funding contracts on that basis.
Expensive in the short term, but a sensible policy, I think.2 -
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.1 -
" Corbyn is a party man..."DecrepiterJohnL said:
Hardly surprising. For all his faults, Corbyn is a party man, and Galloway's main interest is self-advancement. Galloway seeks to harm Labour; Corbyn disagrees with the party leadership on how best to advance Labour.Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f
The question is which party; the Communist Party, United Russia, or the Manhole Appreciation Party?
He's certainly not a Labour man any more; and the amount he rebelled against them in the past, probably never was.1 -
most of the issues that Conservative MPs stress about are non-existent problems I findScott_xP said:
It was a simplistic solution to a non-existent problemStuartinromford said:What was Brexit, if not a simplistic solution to a difficult problem?
0 -
Oppenheimer was also too long, as was Tenet. I suspect Dune is too.Ghedebrav said:
I suspect there’s the competitive influence of high-quality TV series as well.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Most films these days are too long by 30 minutes. I blame Martin Scorcese.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
[huge sniperooni]
To check it is not just my ageing bladder, a quick Bing finds the average run times of the top 10 films has risen each decade:-
2022 — average 141 minutes
2021 — average 131 minutes
2011 — average 122 minutes
2001 — average 126 minutes
1991 - average 117 minutes
1981 — average 110 minutes
https://www.whattowatch.com/features/are-movies-really-getting-longer
90 mins is about the perfect length for a film, maybe stretching back to 80 and on to 120. Exceptions to this really have to make their case through quality (e.g. Godfather).
It really has to be very gripping to stretch from 2 to 3 hours.2 -
Something remarkable has indeed happened. Fewer students are sitting the PISA tests so the small sample size, skewed towards carefully selected candidates, is distorting the result.Casino_Royale said:One big Conservative success: education in England over the last 14 years. Worth noting that at no point has its policy touched Wales or Scotland:
"Pupils in England now rank 11th in the world for maths, compared to 27th in 2009, and 13th for reading, compared to 25th. Something remarkable has happened."
"Left-of-centre ministers from the SNP and Labour, in Scotland and Wales respectively, eschewed this approach. For them, knowledge is too traditional and modern-sounding skills are in fashion. Well, now the results are in. Scotland, whose schools were always highly regarded, has fallen steadily in the international rankings and is now behind England in maths and science. For Wales, the Pisa results were the worst ever."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/welsh-education-failure-is-a-lesson-for-labour-f6trs0d6t
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/apr/governments-education-statistics-seriously-flawed
The record of the Tories in education is genuinely dismal. In particular, they are making it much, much harder for children of primary school age to learn to read through their stupid curriculum framework (largely based on ignorance and prejudice) which will store up very serious problems later on.
They have also replaced exams that were outdated and badly written (and therefore unreliable) with exams that are completely worthless because they are so badly written and far too hard. This appears to be based on the naive idea that 'harder' exams are somehow magically going to make children smarter. In fact, very often the opposite is true. Being overexamined and finding the tests too hard is seriously demotivating and leads to further underachievement later. Rigorous exams are ones that tell you what you want to know in such a way you can be sure you are being told it. Ours do not do that.
About the only thing to say in favour of England's performance is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have done worse. That is not a good recommendation.3 -
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots0 -
@nicholascecil
No general election in May, says Government minister Greg Hands
@RobDotHutton
No offence to Greg, but I'm not convinced he's in the loop on this one.1 -
In practice, I expect it's pretty much impossible to get waiting lists down below 6 weeks in any event because of the need to schedule, roster and plan for multiple types of surgery around constraints like holidays, beds, equipment, drugs, consultants and support staff. All sorts of treatments are different.Foxy said:
I think that costing rather implausible.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.
That's probably true of the private sector as well. In fact, I know it is.0 -
Since when ?TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
They've always changed, throughout history, and across the globe.0 -
First rule of politics - Never Believe Anything Until It's Been Officially Denied.Scott_xP said:@nicholascecil
No general election in May, says Government minister Greg Hands
@RobDotHutton
No offence to Greg, but I'm not convinced he's in the loop on this one.1 -
Corbyn's not going anywhere. For all his individualism and the desire of his top supporters for him to jump ship he still has too much Labour in him.
He'll retire from parliament at the GE with a whimper and spend an enjoyable retirement speaking at rallies in front of people who tell him he was the greatest PM we never had.3 -
* I found out the other day that Rebecca Ferguson is Swedish.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
* personal taste, but I don’t like Hans ‘Honk Honk’ Zimmer.
* the character of Stilgar is somewhat reduced from the book.
* Christopher Walken is poorly cast and, to be honest, not very good. Jose Ferrer from the Lynch adaptation was a much better Emperor.
* The Fenrings are the Tom Bombadil of Dune; they (or rather here, she) does not need including.
Selected upsides:
* the development of Chani as a character is welcome, and a helpful counterpoint as Paul develops away from being the viewer’s proxy protagonist
* all the monochrome Harkonnen stuff looks brilliant. Austin Butler is fantastic.
* Rebecca Ferguson also deserves particular praise, I think.
* As you’d hope, the action is wonderfully choreographed - spectacular, tense and with plenty of heft.
* Ultimately, DV & co. have done a good job of translating a difficult novel to film, retaining the feel and the moral heart.
Interested to know what other PBers thought; I know there are a few Dune fans here.
* Christopher Walken gave a mannered performance? Really? Well, I never... 😃0 -
It could equally be a fundamentalist Christian approach. Either way, it rejects rational analysis of the evidence in favour of blind faith, so probably criticising it analytically is not going to have much effect on its proponents.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.0 -
They rarely do, and consider that irrefutable proof.ydoethur said:
Neale Hanvey, of course, being a notorious anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist who ‘doesn’t consider himself as one.’Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f
See many a "I'm not antisemitic it's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, controls our elite media" comment.1 -
If the budget goes well and the Rwanda Bill goes through with flights taking off together with a continued drop in inflation then we might see the polls change . In that event a May election might seem a sane thing to do for the Tories .
I think we’d need to see the Labour lead to drop to single digits for the Tories to risk that . They’d hope then that an election campaign could see them improve their polling further .
The more sensible money is on an autumn election although to a degree there are more variables then .0 -
Remember when Just Stop Oil activists got arrested for blocking off some streets in protest?bigjohnowls said:
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots
Here is a bunch of farmers and the Prime Minister doing exactly the same in Llandudno: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68381624
This is why Sunak's Downing Street speech was so obviously a sham. He's as much responsible for this kind of behaviour as anyone else - including appointing a culture warrior like Lee Anderson as deputy chairman.6 -
Corbyn should join his friends in Sinn Féin, just for LOLs. 0
-
Good morning everyone.nico679 said:If the budget goes well and the Rwanda Bill goes through with flights taking off together with a continued drop in inflation then we might see the polls change . In that event a May election might seem a sane thing to do for the Tories .
I think we’d need to see the Labour lead to drop to single digits for the Tories to risk that . They’d hope then that an election campaign could see them improve their polling further .
The more sensible money is on an autumn election although to a degree there are more variables then .
I’ve got to say, Mr 679, that in that first paragraph you’re putting an awful lot on IF.
2 -
True , if is doing a lot of heavy lifting !OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.nico679 said:If the budget goes well and the Rwanda Bill goes through with flights taking off together with a continued drop in inflation then we might see the polls change . In that event a May election might seem a sane thing to do for the Tories .
I think we’d need to see the Labour lead to drop to single digits for the Tories to risk that . They’d hope then that an election campaign could see them improve their polling further .
The more sensible money is on an autumn election although to a degree there are more variables then .
I’ve got to say, Mr 679, that in that first. Paragraph you’re putting an awful lot on IF.1 -
Also, at best, the Tories' being on the same podium or tarmac argument acts against him.Eabhal said:
Remember when Just Stop Oil activists got arrested for blocking off some streets in protest?bigjohnowls said:
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots
Here is a bunch of farmers and the Prime Minister doing exactly the same in Llandudno: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68381624
This is why Sunak's Downing Street speech was so obviously a sham. He's as much responsible for this kind of behaviour as anyone else - including appointing a culture warrior like Lee Anderson as deputy chairman.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/sunak-stands-with-net-zero-and-climate-conspiracy-group-at-farming-protest1 -
The Anglican Church has always accepted evolving ideas in theology, so not a relevant argument in this instance.Chris said:
It could equally be a fundamentalist Christian approach. Either way, it rejects rational analysis of the evidence in favour of blind faith, so probably criticising it analytically is not going to have much effect on its proponents.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.
Certain "Fundamentalist" churches get things the wrong way round and seem to prioritise the OT, though even they tend to skip past the weirder bits of Leviticus.0 -
O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org1 -
It was a visual masterpiece and, credit where its due, Chalamet was actually very good and charismatic for the first time I'd ever seen him.Ghedebrav said:Btw, I’m not sure if we’ve done Dune Pt 2 yet or not, but I watched it on Sunday.
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
* personal taste, but I don’t like Hans ‘Honk Honk’ Zimmer.
* the character of Stilgar is somewhat reduced from the book.
* Christopher Walken is poorly cast and, to be honest, not very good. Jose Ferrer from the Lynch adaptation was a much better Emperor.
* The Fenrings are the Tom Bombadil of Dune; they (or rather here, she) does not need including.
Selected upsides:
* the development of Chani as a character is welcome, and a helpful counterpoint as Paul develops away from being the viewer’s proxy protagonist
* all the monochrome Harkonnen stuff looks brilliant. Austin Butler is fantastic.
* Rebecca Ferguson also deserves particular praise, I think.
* As you’d hope, the action is wonderfully choreographed - spectacular, tense and with plenty of heft.
* Ultimately, DV & co. have done a good job of translating a difficult novel to film, retaining the feel and the moral heart.
Interested to know what other PBers thought; I know there are a few Dune fans here.
It did seem a bit easy for him to succeed compared to how I remember it, the Harkkonens were striking but came across as dumb not threatening, and Walken and Pugh had nothing to do.
Overall very good, atmospheric and intense. Interesting to see they are pushing for a sequel, as based on reactions at my cinema people would expect to see the jihad not Dune Messiah.
I just want them to make God-Emperor - done in epic and serious fashion, that would be hilarious.
I always felt the first Dune succeeded in creating a feel of a huge story and setting, despite mostly taking place on one planet, whereas the series later felt increasingly small in scope as themes and characters returned, even though the plot itself did go in different directions.1 -
Poor If, what did it ever do to deserve such abuse?OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.nico679 said:If the budget goes well and the Rwanda Bill goes through with flights taking off together with a continued drop in inflation then we might see the polls change . In that event a May election might seem a sane thing to do for the Tories .
I think we’d need to see the Labour lead to drop to single digits for the Tories to risk that . They’d hope then that an election campaign could see them improve their polling further .
The more sensible money is on an autumn election although to a degree there are more variables then .
I’ve got to say, Mr 679, that in that first paragraph you’re putting an awful lot on IF.2 -
Point of order in the header - Corbyn has been enabling the Tories for decades. When Blair was in office Corbyn voted with the Tory whip more than many Tory MPs did...0
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Come on Mods - let us see who Likes us again!4
-
The Mormons, as I understand it, have a very interesting way of dealing with this. God simply changes His mind*.Foxy said:
The Anglican Church has always accepted evolving ideas in theology, so not a relevant argument in this instance.Chris said:
It could equally be a fundamentalist Christian approach. Either way, it rejects rational analysis of the evidence in favour of blind faith, so probably criticising it analytically is not going to have much effect on its proponents.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.
Certain "Fundamentalist" churches get things the wrong way round and seem to prioritise the OT, though even they tend to skip past the weirder bits of Leviticus.
*I'm not sure if that's how the Mormons see it, maybe more that God is only ready to reveal changes at certain times? The result is the same, however.0 -
I think it's good for Trump he's managed to bump 2 (possibly 3 if he's lucky) criminal trials to after the election (or not to conclude by then), as I'm not sure his heart could take the stress.Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
0 -
If you take all presidents since 1970 only republicans have died…Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
0 -
I think Biden is more than moderately active for his age. He has work outs everyday iirc.Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org0 -
The next set of PISA tests are being sat this month, year 11 pupils headed for good grades (it is a measure of your cleverer pupils) having been notified of their proposed participation in the last fortnight or so. Anyone who has a practical subject is competing the NEA portfolio for submission deadline precisely in the same month and being asked to drop out off lessons for the PISA tests, so the drop out rate from the PISA tests is going to be quite brutal. We have been faced with this decision.ydoethur said:
Something remarkable has indeed happened. Fewer students are sitting the PISA tests so the small sample size, skewed towards carefully selected candidates, is distorting the result.Casino_Royale said:One big Conservative success: education in England over the last 14 years. Worth noting that at no point has its policy touched Wales or Scotland:
"Pupils in England now rank 11th in the world for maths, compared to 27th in 2009, and 13th for reading, compared to 25th. Something remarkable has happened."
"Left-of-centre ministers from the SNP and Labour, in Scotland and Wales respectively, eschewed this approach. For them, knowledge is too traditional and modern-sounding skills are in fashion. Well, now the results are in. Scotland, whose schools were always highly regarded, has fallen steadily in the international rankings and is now behind England in maths and science. For Wales, the Pisa results were the worst ever."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/welsh-education-failure-is-a-lesson-for-labour-f6trs0d6t
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/apr/governments-education-statistics-seriously-flawed
The record of the Tories in education is genuinely dismal. In particular, they are making it much, much harder for children of primary school age to learn to read through their stupid curriculum framework (largely based on ignorance and prejudice) which will store up very serious problems later on.
They have also replaced exams that were outdated and badly written (and therefore unreliable) with exams that are completely worthless because they are so badly written and far too hard. This appears to be based on the naive idea that 'harder' exams are somehow magically going to make children smarter. In fact, very often the opposite is true. Being overexamined and finding the tests too hard is seriously demotivating and leads to further underachievement later. Rigorous exams are ones that tell you what you want to know in such a way you can be sure you are being told it. Ours do not do that.
About the only thing to say in favour of England's performance is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have done worse. That is not a good recommendation.
All in all the effect of how national education departments choose to select for and run their PISA tests and how it sits with the national exam timetable, look to me like big potential influences on the results.0 -
This is true generally of racial prejudice. On a self-assessment basis there isn't any. It doesn't exist.kle4 said:
They rarely do, and consider that irrefutable proof.ydoethur said:
Neale Hanvey, of course, being a notorious anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist who ‘doesn’t consider himself as one.’Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f
See many a "I'm not antisemitic it's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, controls our elite media" comment.0 -
UK negotiators fly to India in last-ditch effort to seal free-trade deal
Exclusive: Team will try to resolve goods and services issues amid fears Delhi is holding out for a Labour government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/uk-negotiators-fly-to-india-in-last-ditch-effort-to-seal-free-trade-deal
I'm puzzled. Why would Modi want to hold out for a Labour government?1 -
Is it a phone thing?Benpointer said:Come on Mods - let us see who Likes us again!
Checked on my desktop last night and was OK.0 -
So we can only put their refusal to sanction, say, gay marriage down to them being nasty and bigoted. Nothing to do with the Big Book.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.1 -
I'm on a Macbook but tried it on both Safari and Chorme. Others reported same issue.Casino_Royale said:
Is it a phone thing?Benpointer said:Come on Mods - let us see who Likes us again!
Checked on my desktop last night and was OK.
Please! I need to be liked!4 -
It's why while I don't agree with the assumed extent or often the proposed solutions, I do think things like unconscious biases exist. We have to work hard on self reflection sometimes, it's not easy. Unfortunately it can be easy instead to just parrot lines and implement box ticking 'solutions' to gain the confidence we have done so, especially if demonstratimg something fashionable.kinabalu said:
This is true generally of racial prejudice. On a self-assessment basis there isn't any. It doesn't exist.kle4 said:
They rarely do, and consider that irrefutable proof.ydoethur said:
Neale Hanvey, of course, being a notorious anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist who ‘doesn’t consider himself as one.’Stuartinromford said:Possibly relevant tittle-tattle;
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f
See many a "I'm not antisemitic it's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, controls our elite media" comment.0 -
Who gets to say which weird bits we should skip past.Foxy said:
The Anglican Church has always accepted evolving ideas in theology, so not a relevant argument in this instance.Chris said:
It could equally be a fundamentalist Christian approach. Either way, it rejects rational analysis of the evidence in favour of blind faith, so probably criticising it analytically is not going to have much effect on its proponents.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.
Certain "Fundamentalist" churches get things the wrong way round and seem to prioritise the OT, though even they tend to skip past the weirder bits of Leviticus.1 -
Alls well on Android.Benpointer said:Come on Mods - let us see who Likes us again!
0 -
People have been warning Edinburgh Lib Dems about this for ages in regard to LTNs and cycle infrastructure - they look very stupid now that an 11 year old cyclist was killed on the way to school in ACH's constituency.Carnyx said:
Also, at best, the Tories' being on the same podium or tarmac argument acts against him.Eabhal said:
Remember when Just Stop Oil activists got arrested for blocking off some streets in protest?bigjohnowls said:
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots
Here is a bunch of farmers and the Prime Minister doing exactly the same in Llandudno: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68381624
This is why Sunak's Downing Street speech was so obviously a sham. He's as much responsible for this kind of behaviour as anyone else - including appointing a culture warrior like Lee Anderson as deputy chairman.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/sunak-stands-with-net-zero-and-climate-conspiracy-group-at-farming-protest0 -
Well into his sixth term as president, presumably ?Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org0 -
If not for his face and especially voice I don't think we'd guess his age correctly.rottenborough said:
I think Biden is more than moderately active for his age. He has work outs everyday iirc.Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
Beneath the bronzer I'd have no idea how old Trump is as his speeches are constructed like a toddler's, but when he is high energy its impressive if depressing.0 -
The BBC features fives people regarding the Budget:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68448107
They all want various tax cuts and more handouts.
None of them suggest paying more tax.
Yet we're continually told that people support higher taxes to pay for public services.3 -
A systematic analysis of the conservative Justices' claim to be originalities.
Selective Originalism and Judicial Role Morality
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4347334
The Justices of the Supreme Court increasingly claim to be originalists. Yet close examination reveals that the Court’s actual reliance on originalist analysis is highly selective. In large swathes of cases, the avowedly originalist Justices make little or no effort to justify their rulings by reference to original constitutional meanings.
This Article defines and documents the phenomenon of selective originalism. Having done so, the Article then explores the cultural and jurisprudential conditions in which selective original-ism, which typically abets substantively conservative decisionmaking, has developed and now flourishes. The Article criticizes selective originalism for its inconsistency and intellectual dishonesty. But it also explores the obvious question that criticisms frame: Why do the selectively originalist Justices not respond by articulating a more complex doctrine that would seek to justify their only-selective reliance on originalist premises?..
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It was and is an opportunity to do things that were best for us, to be responsible for our own decisions and to be able to hold those making those decisions accountable.Stuartinromford said:
What was Brexit, if not a simplistic solution to a difficult problem?DavidL said:
Reform are not a serious party and make no real pretence at having an agenda for government. Since we now have Brexit I am not sure I see the point but there is clearly a market for those who want simplistic solutions to difficult problems.Foxy said:
I think that costing rather implausible.MikeL said:Did anyone watch the political debate on Newsnight?
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.
Given the current spend on the NHS and the pressures on the system I think it inevitable that spending will increase by at least another £30bn a year by the end of the next Parliament. Whether that produces any material benefit in terms of waiting times remains to be seen.
I completely agree that it was not a solution in itself and any who thought that the world would magically get better without the hard work were delusional.0 -
The irony of course is that the senior CofE leadership is still at it; ignoring African's (in the form of by far the largest Anglican groupings - GAFCON and the Global South) whilst trying to force a new religion down their throats. The difference now is that these Africans now believe what the CofE believed 100 years ago, and the religion the CofE are trying to feed them (with the approval of the UK public and government) is a diet of social permissiveness, gay marriage, trans rights and not really believing in God much.BartholomewRoberts said:
I have addressed the point.Gardenwalker said:
You haven’t really addressed the point, just made vague references to Anglicanism’s torrid history.BartholomewRoberts said:
Yes, the Church (not just Anglican) has a torrid history.LostPassword said:
People haven't forgotten the soup here. During the famine the Anglican church in Ireland would offer starving people soup on condition that they renounced the Catholic church and joined the Anglican.BartholomewRoberts said:
No.Luckyguy1983 said:...
You're dedicated to promoting your set of beliefs all the live long day; should you apologise retrospectively if anyone ever ends up exchanging their traditional beliefs for one of yours?BartholomewRoberts said:
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?Gardenwalker said:
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).Casino_Royale said:
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.Gardenwalker said:The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
Convincing people via a free exchange of ideas is a good thing.
Convincing people via repression, the barrel of the gun and destroying others beliefs systems is a bad thing.
Hence why democracy is good, and your beloved Moscow is bad.
The problem is the Church didn't simply proselytise in the past, that's a complete rewriting of history. It very much sought to destroy alternatives, via malicious means, which is wrong.
On Shrove Tuesday just past the local Anglican church was offering pancakes, and fortunately matters have improved that sick conditions are no longer attached. But the difference was remarked upon.
To rewrite it as "proselytisation" is a complete rewriting of history.
In the words of Gardenwalker "akin to destroying monuments" (or threats of starvation etc too) is the relevant part of its history that is being discussed.
To pretend history is all sunshine and roses and honest proseltyisation is to just rewrite and deny history, its not.
The Irish case mentioned is shameful of course, but for reasons other than the supposed “destruction of traditional beliefs”.
There is a difference between proselytising while respecting others rights, and seeking to destroy others beliefs through nefarious means.
If you think that history is all sunshine and roses and only honest proselytising happened, I can only suggest you pick up a history book. Because what you're suggesting bears no resemblance at all to real life history.
It's also true in the UK - majority black congregations are for the most part very unhappy about the "Living in Love and Faith" process which is leading to church blessings for same sex couples.0 -
He's holding out until the end of the night. He's gotta be strong, and he's gotta be fast, and he's gotta be fresh from the fight.Benpointer said:UK negotiators fly to India in last-ditch effort to seal free-trade deal
Exclusive: Team will try to resolve goods and services issues amid fears Delhi is holding out for a Labour government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/uk-negotiators-fly-to-india-in-last-ditch-effort-to-seal-free-trade-deal
I'm puzzled. Why would Modi want to hold out for a Labour government?1 -
Tax is for other people.another_richard said:The BBC features fives people regarding the Budget:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68448107
They all want various tax cuts and more handouts.
None of them suggest paying more tax.
Yet we're continually told that people support higher taxes to pay for public services.
3 -
It’s an interesting point. Perhaps we should be more focused on who Trump chooses as his VP than Biden.kle4 said:
If not for his face and especially voice I don't think we'd guess his age correctly.rottenborough said:
I think Biden is more than moderately active for his age. He has work outs everyday iirc.Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
Beneath the bronzer I'd have no idea how old Trump is as his speeches are constructed like a toddler's, but when he is high energy its impressive if depressing.0 -
It's hard to describe the temper of a constituency - but Ashton under Lyne doesn't feel to me like the sort of place to be sympathetic to Gallowayism. It's not a pretty place, and the middle classes are fairly thin on the ground. But it doesn't have the feeling of despair that Rochdale does.0
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They simply shouldn't ask a question like that about taxes without mentioning a concomitant offset in public spendinganother_richard said:The BBC features fives people regarding the Budget:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68448107
They all want various tax cuts and more handouts.
None of them suggest paying more tax.
Yet we're continually told that people support higher taxes to pay for public services.
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There’s a reason the locals call it Trashton.Cookie said:It's hard to describe the temper of a constituency - but Ashton under Lyne doesn't feel to me like the sort of place to be sympathetic to Gallowayism. It's not a pretty place, and the middle classes are fairly thin on the ground. But it doesn't have the feeling of despair that Rochdale does.
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Possible Tory voters protesting = goodEabhal said:
Remember when Just Stop Oil activists got arrested for blocking off some streets in protest?bigjohnowls said:
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots
Here is a bunch of farmers and the Prime Minister doing exactly the same in Llandudno: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68381624
This is why Sunak's Downing Street speech was so obviously a sham. He's as much responsible for this kind of behaviour as anyone else - including appointing a culture warrior like Lee Anderson as deputy chairman.
Non-Tory voters protesting = bad
The Tories do not believe in free speech.1 -
The sticking point is immigration which he thinks Labour may be more flexible onBenpointer said:UK negotiators fly to India in last-ditch effort to seal free-trade deal
Exclusive: Team will try to resolve goods and services issues amid fears Delhi is holding out for a Labour government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/uk-negotiators-fly-to-india-in-last-ditch-effort-to-seal-free-trade-deal
I'm puzzled. Why would Modi want to hold out for a Labour government?
Plus Labour gets value from “the lady government couldn’t get it done but we did” and may give up something for that win
0 -
On topic, outside a few special constituencies I imagine the spectre of Galloway teaming up with Corbyn to have a go at Labour might be a helpful recruiting sergeant for Starmer with wavering voters.0
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Come the general election campaign, reporting rules kick in. The LibDems get a lot more attention. Parties standing in most seats, like Reform UK, get more attention. The Workers Party of Britain will not.0
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The lady government was surely Truss.StillWaters said:
The sticking point is immigration which he thinks Labour may be more flexible onBenpointer said:UK negotiators fly to India in last-ditch effort to seal free-trade deal
Exclusive: Team will try to resolve goods and services issues amid fears Delhi is holding out for a Labour government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/uk-negotiators-fly-to-india-in-last-ditch-effort-to-seal-free-trade-deal
I'm puzzled. Why would Modi want to hold out for a Labour government?
Plus Labour gets value from “the lady government couldn’t get it done but we did” and may give up something for that win0 -
India wants more work visas . So a problem for the Tories . Allowing more visas would be a gift to Reform .0
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And nor will the Greens, which explains some of their typical fade during campaigns I think.bondegezou said:Come the general election campaign, reporting rules kick in. The LibDems get a lot more attention. Parties standing in most seats, like Reform UK, get more attention. The Workers Party of Britain will not.
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The death clock told me I am going to live to 106Benpointer said:O/T For a bit of fun I checked the Death Clock for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
Seriously
And maybe it’s right. I just survived an intense dose of ayahuasca in the Colombian jungle where at one point I thought I was being visited by tiny luminous “entities” and yet here I am. Alive. Didn’t even puke or crap myself. YET2 -
A plot of real wages compared to other western European nations, CANZUK and the USA combined with high house prices (Masked for ages by tiny interest rates) with the now implied high mortgages and rents shows the problem. Also the FTSE and GBP vs EUR and USD long term don't paint a pretty picture.another_richard said:The BBC features fives people regarding the Budget:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68448107
They all want various tax cuts and more handouts.
None of them suggest paying more tax.
Yet we're continually told that people support higher taxes to pay for public services.0 -
Yes, but they're not supposed to. If an all powerful and unchanging God had firm views about a certain thing 2,000 years ago, why has he changed his mind?Nigelb said:
Since when ?TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
They've always changed, throughout history, and across the globe.
Or is it that the church are now and have always been just guessing what god approves and disapproves of, with their guesses coinciding strongly with whatever the dominant mores of the time are?1 -
I (as someone a lot of people would call fundamentalist) would say that the values and mind of God, as revealed through his word are immutable. However, that doesn't mean everyone who has ever done anything claiming to act in God's name got everything right. Every age has it's errors, some of which are particularly egregious.Foxy said:
The Anglican Church has always accepted evolving ideas in theology, so not a relevant argument in this instance.Chris said:
It could equally be a fundamentalist Christian approach. Either way, it rejects rational analysis of the evidence in favour of blind faith, so probably criticising it analytically is not going to have much effect on its proponents.Foxy said:
That's a rather Orthodox Muslim approach.TOPPING said:fpt the church.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.
Certain "Fundamentalist" churches get things the wrong way round and seem to prioritise the OT, though even they tend to skip past the weirder bits of Leviticus.
For an obvious example I don't think you'll find anything in the N.T. about forcibly converting people - quite a lot of various brands of Jesus's followers have tried it anyway over the years, with pretty much universally bad results. This doesn't make either God or the Bible wrong - it just means that the people concerned would have done better to see how the N.T. church grew and tried copying that.
I also think it's important to understand the O.T. in it's context - a lot of the laws which cause people fits of the vapors now were set as maximum limits - "You may do up to this" - when in the surrounding cultures, people did things which were much worse. That doesn't necessarily imply that God was pleased when people got to those limits he had set. Jesus's teaching on divorce is instructive; he bans divorce (despite it being permitted in the O.T.) with the comment that "Moses (i.e. the O.T. law) permitted it because of the hardness of your hearts". I.e. God had never liked or approved of divorce, he merely tolerated it.0
