Could Corbyn defect to Galloway’s party? – politicalbetting.com
Could Corbyn defect to Galloway’s party? – politicalbetting.com
? NEW: George Galloway has compared Israel’s operations in Gaza to the Holocaust, less than an hour after being sworn in as MP for Rochdale ??https://t.co/X2wf7PKCUh
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On that note, I see EC gives an ethnic white % of 63% for the constituency. I don't know if the figures in each case are whole population or registered voters, and I don't know what sliver is non-White, non-Muslim, but the 24% figure I took was a few % too low in 2024.
I do this not only to cover off Rochdale but to note that Ashton, which I do know better, shows as being 79% white and has a definite non-white, non-Muslim segment, as the most Hindu town in GM after Bolton.
As likely Northern targets for Galloway go, Ashton seems a good way down the list and there is enough red-wallness that I don't see the different Corbyn angle getting him over the Lyne either.
(Spoiler alert, it’s not going to be very super for Nikki Haley).
Come the GE I would imagine she will comfortably win but face a nasty campaign. Also expect Galloway to lose Rochdale.
Most people in this country don’t give a fuck about Israel/Palestine and certainly won’t decide their vote on this issue.
F1: pair of retirements at Alpine. Shockingly poor start to the season for them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68470753
Generally very good, and a whole-hearted recommendation. It’s an unusual blockbuster; brilliantly crafted and I hope it does very well.
Downsides:
* it is too long by about 30 minutes.
* personal taste, but I don’t like Hans ‘Honk Honk’ Zimmer.
* the character of Stilgar is somewhat reduced from the book.
* Christopher Walken is poorly cast and, to be honest, not very good. Jose Ferrer from the Lynch adaptation was a much better Emperor.
* The Fenrings are the Tom Bombadil of Dune; they (or rather here, she) does not need including.
Selected upsides:
* the development of Chani as a character is welcome, and a helpful counterpoint as Paul develops away from being the viewer’s proxy protagonist
* all the monochrome Harkonnen stuff looks brilliant. Austin Butler is fantastic.
* Rebecca Ferguson also deserves particular praise, I think.
* As you’d hope, the action is wonderfully choreographed - spectacular, tense and with plenty of heft.
* Ultimately, DV & co. have done a good job of translating a difficult novel to film, retaining the feel and the moral heart.
Interested to know what other PBers thought; I know there are a few Dune fans here.
"Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, has confirmed the Project 22160 corvette Sergei (Sergey) Kotov was sunk. Video purporting to be from the incident.
The Kerch bridge has reopened after an “inspection.” It was probably damaged IMO."
https://twitter.com/GaudetteRob/status/1764895123266052527
Only a couple of years old; the Ukrainians damaged it before.
They were a distant last in qualifying at the weekend, and now the two senior car designers depart the team this week.
The Reform Party representative was beyond comical. He said straight out that Reform would totally eliminate NHS waiting lists within 2 years.
Victoria Derbyshire asked what would that cost. Reform man didn't know. Derbyshire then said that per the Reform website the cost is £30 billion.
I mean, seriously, given all the other pressures the country is facing it is beyond fantastical to pretend we are going to eliminate NHS waiting lists and also beyond fantastical that we are going to spend £30 billion even attempting to do so.
This kind of Alice in Wonderland nonsense is of no help to anyone and can only do much more damage to the country - encouraging the public to think that such things are possible and then when they can't be delivered people get even more disappointed leading to even more reactionary views.
Based on this debate, as a Conservative supporter I have no hesitation at all in saying my second choice for Government would be Labour. Reform would be a complete disaster.
New members must be “introduced” by an existing member and we’d been expecting Jeremy Corbyn to take these steps alongside him. In the end it was an MP called Neale Hanvey, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021. It’s quaint to see such solidarity between former chat-show hosts on Russia Today.
Corbyn, we would later be told, had “forgotten” he had an urgent appointment that he couldn’t get out of. We were not told precisely what it was but, strictly as a point of fact, we are reaching the last few feasible days of marmalade-making season.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b7343ca4-b49d-4e9e-9edd-daaa8a3a007f
Sunak’s warning about the “poison” of extremism could still set the tone for the Conservative election campaign to come.
The official line from Downing Street is that this was a speech aimed at doing the right thing rather than an attempt to weaponise recent events to the Tories’ advantage. But anyone who tells you the speech wasn’t political is not being straight. What’s more, a Tory HQ attack email that went out yesterday let go of any pretence of rising above party politics on the issue. Titled “Rochdale’s new MP”, it attacked Galloway as unfit before declaring: “The blame for his victory lies at the door of Keir Starmer” as “Starmer’s failure to fix antisemitism within his party paved the way for Galloway’s toxic brand of politics to return”.
Tories would like to depict Starmer as weak and unable to take strong positions on these issues for fear of his own party. It means you can expect to hear more about antisemitism and Islamic extremism in the weeks ahead. Sunak will try to depict Starmer as unable to lead here.
The risk is that voters will blame the government for not solving problems rather than praise it for pointing them out. “The speech was the right thing to do on every level,” says one Tory MP. “With the unfortunate omission that a speech largely about leadership essentially contained no action.”
But the most widely shared concern across the Tory tribes is something else: is anyone listening? As one MP, who welcomed Sunak’s intervention, puts it: “I just don’t feel it has any cut-through. I’m not sure anything does. It’s just about marking time until the election and hoping Starmer looks a bit more crap than us.”
REFUK plan to exempt NHS staff from basic rate income tax for 3 years, give 20% tax relief for private health insurance and write off 10% of NHS student debt per year of service. All that is before a further patient is treated.
Their main cost item would be to give patients the right to go private and bill the NHS if they cannot see a GP in 3 days or Consultant in 3 weeks. Presumably that also covers the costs of any investigations, imaging, pathology too.
Not entirely daft policies, but way more expensive than they imagine, and grossly overestimating the physical capacity of the private sector.
There is a difference between proselytising while respecting others rights, and seeking to destroy others beliefs through nefarious means.
If you think that history is all sunshine and roses and only honest proselytising happened, I can only suggest you pick up a history book. Because what you're suggesting bears no resemblance at all to real life history.
Given the current spend on the NHS and the pressures on the system I think it inevitable that spending will increase by at least another £30bn a year by the end of the next Parliament. Whether that produces any material benefit in terms of waiting times remains to be seen.
It's a bit weird for them to change their approach to apologise for past beliefs and deeds.
Either there are immutable values or there aren't.
Politicians shouldn't apologise for past deeds because mores change. But religious eternal values aren't supposed to change.
"Pupils in England now rank 11th in the world for maths, compared to 27th in 2009, and 13th for reading, compared to 25th. Something remarkable has happened."
"Left-of-centre ministers from the SNP and Labour, in Scotland and Wales respectively, eschewed this approach. For them, knowledge is too traditional and modern-sounding skills are in fashion. Well, now the results are in. Scotland, whose schools were always highly regarded, has fallen steadily in the international rankings and is now behind England in maths and science. For Wales, the Pisa results were the worst ever."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/welsh-education-failure-is-a-lesson-for-labour-f6trs0d6t
To check it is not just my ageing bladder, a quick Bing finds the average run times of the top 10 films has risen each decade:-
2022 — average 141 minutes
2021 — average 131 minutes
2011 — average 122 minutes
2001 — average 126 minutes
1991 - average 117 minutes
1981 — average 110 minutes
https://www.whattowatch.com/features/are-movies-really-getting-longer
90 mins is about the perfect length for a film, maybe stretching back to 80 and on to 120. Exceptions to this really have to make their case through quality (e.g. Godfather).
https://spacenews.com/space-force-top-buyer-keenly-watching-ula-and-blue-origin-they-need-to-scale/
The US government clearly wants an alternative provider to SpaceX, and they're going to keep funding contracts on that basis.
Expensive in the short term, but a sensible policy, I think.
The whole Bible is about evolution of belief, from the personal, tribal God of Genesis, through to the later prophets, the New Testament and Paul's letters, and that's before even starting on evolving theology within the church.
The question is which party; the Communist Party, United Russia, or the Manhole Appreciation Party?
He's certainly not a Labour man any more; and the amount he rebelled against them in the past, probably never was.
It really has to be very gripping to stretch from 2 to 3 hours.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/apr/governments-education-statistics-seriously-flawed
The record of the Tories in education is genuinely dismal. In particular, they are making it much, much harder for children of primary school age to learn to read through their stupid curriculum framework (largely based on ignorance and prejudice) which will store up very serious problems later on.
They have also replaced exams that were outdated and badly written (and therefore unreliable) with exams that are completely worthless because they are so badly written and far too hard. This appears to be based on the naive idea that 'harder' exams are somehow magically going to make children smarter. In fact, very often the opposite is true. Being overexamined and finding the tests too hard is seriously demotivating and leads to further underachievement later. Rigorous exams are ones that tell you what you want to know in such a way you can be sure you are being told it. Ours do not do that.
About the only thing to say in favour of England's performance is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have done worse. That is not a good recommendation.
Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
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12h
Just to be clear - if you want to protest against the killing of innocent people, you will suffer the full force of the law; but if you want to tear foxes apart for fun - fill your boots
No general election in May, says Government minister Greg Hands
@RobDotHutton
No offence to Greg, but I'm not convinced he's in the loop on this one.
That's probably true of the private sector as well. In fact, I know it is.
They've always changed, throughout history, and across the globe.
He'll retire from parliament at the GE with a whimper and spend an enjoyable retirement speaking at rallies in front of people who tell him he was the greatest PM we never had.
* Christopher Walken gave a mannered performance? Really? Well, I never... 😃
See many a "I'm not antisemitic it's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, controls our elite media" comment.
I think we’d need to see the Labour lead to drop to single digits for the Tories to risk that . They’d hope then that an election campaign could see them improve their polling further .
The more sensible money is on an autumn election although to a degree there are more variables then .
Here is a bunch of farmers and the Prime Minister doing exactly the same in Llandudno: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68381624
This is why Sunak's Downing Street speech was so obviously a sham. He's as much responsible for this kind of behaviour as anyone else - including appointing a culture warrior like Lee Anderson as deputy chairman.
I’ve got to say, Mr 679, that in that first paragraph you’re putting an awful lot on IF.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/sunak-stands-with-net-zero-and-climate-conspiracy-group-at-farming-protest
Certain "Fundamentalist" churches get things the wrong way round and seem to prioritise the OT, though even they tend to skip past the weirder bits of Leviticus.
I assumed the following BMI/fitness/diet:
DT: 30/moderately active/terrible
JB: 25/moderately active/good
I put both down as non-smokers, never drink alcohol, optimistic outlook
Death Clock says Trump is going to peg it in less than two years on 5th December 2025 aged 79 years, 5 months and 21 days.
Biden however will die on 5th September 2043, aged 100 years, 9 months and 16 days old.
Make of that what you will.
https://www.death-clock.org
It did seem a bit easy for him to succeed compared to how I remember it, the Harkkonens were striking but came across as dumb not threatening, and Walken and Pugh had nothing to do.
Overall very good, atmospheric and intense. Interesting to see they are pushing for a sequel, as based on reactions at my cinema people would expect to see the jihad not Dune Messiah.
I just want them to make God-Emperor - done in epic and serious fashion, that would be hilarious.
I always felt the first Dune succeeded in creating a feel of a huge story and setting, despite mostly taking place on one planet, whereas the series later felt increasingly small in scope as themes and characters returned, even though the plot itself did go in different directions.
*I'm not sure if that's how the Mormons see it, maybe more that God is only ready to reveal changes at certain times? The result is the same, however.
All in all the effect of how national education departments choose to select for and run their PISA tests and how it sits with the national exam timetable, look to me like big potential influences on the results.
Exclusive: Team will try to resolve goods and services issues amid fears Delhi is holding out for a Labour government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/uk-negotiators-fly-to-india-in-last-ditch-effort-to-seal-free-trade-deal
I'm puzzled. Why would Modi want to hold out for a Labour government?
Checked on my desktop last night and was OK.
Please! I need to be liked!
Beneath the bronzer I'd have no idea how old Trump is as his speeches are constructed like a toddler's, but when he is high energy its impressive if depressing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68448107
They all want various tax cuts and more handouts.
None of them suggest paying more tax.
Yet we're continually told that people support higher taxes to pay for public services.
Selective Originalism and Judicial Role Morality
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4347334
The Justices of the Supreme Court increasingly claim to be originalists. Yet close examination reveals that the Court’s actual reliance on originalist analysis is highly selective. In large swathes of cases, the avowedly originalist Justices make little or no effort to justify their rulings by reference to original constitutional meanings.
This Article defines and documents the phenomenon of selective originalism. Having done so, the Article then explores the cultural and jurisprudential conditions in which selective original-ism, which typically abets substantively conservative decisionmaking, has developed and now flourishes. The Article criticizes selective originalism for its inconsistency and intellectual dishonesty. But it also explores the obvious question that criticisms frame: Why do the selectively originalist Justices not respond by articulating a more complex doctrine that would seek to justify their only-selective reliance on originalist premises?..
I completely agree that it was not a solution in itself and any who thought that the world would magically get better without the hard work were delusional.
It's also true in the UK - majority black congregations are for the most part very unhappy about the "Living in Love and Faith" process which is leading to church blessings for same sex couples.
Non-Tory voters protesting = bad
The Tories do not believe in free speech.
Plus Labour gets value from “the lady government couldn’t get it done but we did” and may give up something for that win
Seriously
And maybe it’s right. I just survived an intense dose of ayahuasca in the Colombian jungle where at one point I thought I was being visited by tiny luminous “entities” and yet here I am. Alive. Didn’t even puke or crap myself. YET
Or is it that the church are now and have always been just guessing what god approves and disapproves of, with their guesses coinciding strongly with whatever the dominant mores of the time are?
For an obvious example I don't think you'll find anything in the N.T. about forcibly converting people - quite a lot of various brands of Jesus's followers have tried it anyway over the years, with pretty much universally bad results. This doesn't make either God or the Bible wrong - it just means that the people concerned would have done better to see how the N.T. church grew and tried copying that.
I also think it's important to understand the O.T. in it's context - a lot of the laws which cause people fits of the vapors now were set as maximum limits - "You may do up to this" - when in the surrounding cultures, people did things which were much worse. That doesn't necessarily imply that God was pleased when people got to those limits he had set. Jesus's teaching on divorce is instructive; he bans divorce (despite it being permitted in the O.T.) with the comment that "Moses (i.e. the O.T. law) permitted it because of the hardness of your hearts". I.e. God had never liked or approved of divorce, he merely tolerated it.