The Rwanda fiasco is what happens when you try to turn a press release into a policy.
As the Sunakstrophe staggers on they might be wiser just to ditch Rwanda. It'd better to do nothing than to keep trying something that always fucks up and has become a failure-themed meme.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Fuck know where all this anti-Semitism is coming from. I really have no clue
irony is dead
Where is the anti-Semitism coming from, then?
It is just anti-xxxxx by the nastier elements of the UK populace. It's a well known fact that when some people find it tough to live/work they immediately blame other people, and when certain groups of politicians find it tough, they exploit this. There has been anti-semitism throughout the 20th C, as wella s anti black, anti muslim etc.
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
This is simply confusion caused by experience. Previous recent recession were seen first in the employment figures. The current recession is different.
What is happening, I think, is that the rising prices have caused a demand contraction shock. Things motored on for a while - people spent savings, used the credit card etc. But gradually it has come to a halt.
The next stage may well include job loses - for the moment, demand is falling/static, but there is still a labour shortage. At some point the lines will cross - and employment will fall.
The builders I know say that future jobs are thinning out, by the way.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Was it a good thing to replace British industry with imports from Germany? For a time the answer seemed to be yes, but maybe it wasn't.
Picking a theme from earlier today, Gun Ownership in the USA is a MINORITY thing (accepted - it is a vociferous-in-parts minority). I hope these blockquotes work.
Isn't the problem approximately this: Virtually everyone in the USA has a gun or ten, plus enough ammo to start a small war. There is no register of guns, and thus who has got what is pretty much unknown. If you banned guns tomorrow, some would get handed in, and plenty wouldn't. There would be a strong inverse relationship between those who hand in their guns and those whom you would most like to disarm. Therefore, banning guns probably actually causes some kinds of gun crime to increase - e.g. undertaking armed robbery is much less risky if you are sure the target is unarmed.
...
I'm just not convinced there is a workable way to change the status quo in the US, given where they are now. In some ways it's rather like the problems we have with teenagers stabbing each other with carving knives; it's basically impossible to prevent teenagers from accessing carving knives, the best we can do is make carrying one without a valid reason an offence and do a lot of stop and search type activity in problem areas; and even then a kid stabs another every week or so.
I think that's incorrect in one respect. Only a minority of Usonians own guns. On a quick lookup, from a Gallup poll several years ago it is about a third:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household. Adults living in gun households include those with a gun in their home or anywhere on their property.
For one demographic factor, I'd perhaps point to extensive urbanisation in the USA being around a century behind the UK. UK was 80%+ urbanised by 1890; in the USA it did not reach that number until post-2000.
And country people - as in the UK - have a greater familiarity with guns in the normal patterns of life. Urbanisation in certain European countries eg France is also comparatively later.
That speaks somewhat to attempts to reduce guns in society, as background.
I see there are plenty of posters on here today who are almost ecstatic about this news, and enthusiastically showing their tribalism in all its glory.
That's also depressing. No-one should be cheering such news or using it as a chance to flip the pissing contest.
I do love it when CR accuses folk of tribalism.
Personally I’m annoyed that this government has screwed up and hope their day of reckoning come soon. The Tories need a short sharp wake up call and the country cannot recover until they are gone. They should be ashamed.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Its not supposed to be a gotcha, and I agree the UK and France track pretty closely, which is the point.
Why would it be "equally valid" to state the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit? Take away any hubris and do you have a reason for that? Is it because our economic policies in the last few years have been much better than France's policies? Has our tax and spend been much better than theirs? Has our investment in capital infrastructure been much better than theirs?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h As I said a few days ago, the economy going into recession probably represents the final nail for Rishi Sunak. And there are now more nails in the coffin than wood. In fact, there is no wood anymore. There’s just nail.
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
Yes but you do not have to look far for people complaining they cannot get jobs. I wonder if this is because employers are looking for unicorns and dismissing applicants who fit only 80 per cent of their requirements.
Quite a few employers have taken the attitude that low paid workers are *their* human right.
Some have expressed the opinion, to me, that the Labour Government will fix this by opening up immigration even more, so reduce the wages at the low end. So there is no need to invest (spit! spit!) in equipment.
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
Yes but you do not have to look far for people complaining they cannot get jobs. I wonder if this is because employers are looking for unicorns and dismissing applicants who fit only 80 per cent of their requirements.
I don't know anyone who is unemployed who does not want to be. During the recessions of the 80 and 90s I knew dozens.
My nephew is a great example of the current jobs market. He is a nightmare at keeping jobs, after about 3 months he does something daft and either gets the sack or leaves, yet he instantly walks into another job. These jobs have ranged from working as a brickies labourer to being head waiter on a cruise ship in Alaska. In the last 3 years he has obtained 14 jobs and lost 13 of them. He currenttly works at a posh hotel in the New Forest earning an excellent wage. If the job market was tight he would be the last person to get employed but businesses are desperate for staff.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Was it a good thing to replace British industry with imports from Germany? For a time the answer seemed to be yes, but maybe it wasn't.
Autarkic economies like North Korea are notoriously prosperous.
Fuck know where all this anti-Semitism is coming from. I really have no clue
irony is dead
Where is the anti-Semitism coming from, then?
It is just anti-xxxxx by the nastier elements of the UK populace. It's a well known fact that when some people find it tough to live/work they immediately blame other people, and when certain groups of politicians find it tough, they exploit this. There has been anti-semitism throughout the 20th C, as wella s anti black, anti muslim etc.
So, total denial of the obvious facts. We all know where it is coming from, see the resignation of Mike Freer when he had to resign as a minister due to anti-Semitism. He was quite explicit where it comes from
But in your tiny tiny tiny atom of a brain it must come from some pale fat skinheads in Devon or something, because you can't cope with the truth
I see there are plenty of posters on here today who are almost ecstatic about this news, and enthusiastically showing their tribalism in all its glory.
That's also depressing. No-one should be cheering such news or using it as a chance to flip the pissing contest.
I do love it when CR accuses folk of tribalism.
Personally I’m annoyed that this government has screwed up and hope their day of reckoning come soon. The Tories need a short sharp wake up call and the country cannot recover until they are gone. They should be ashamed.
"I do love it when CR accuses folk of tribalism."
And then proceeds to be massively tribal...
That's fine. You're an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate - sort of your job - but don't expect not to be called out on it when you roll out your Damian McBride patter.
His it occurred to you that Brexit was an attempt by the people to stop the insane policies that are driving us to penury? It may have been a clumsy attempt, but it was the only lever we offered, we said Pull this lever, and things will change. So they pulled it
Before the vote sensible people told you if you pull this lever all this bad shit will happen.
And you pulled it
And yet per capita GDP decline is worse in France than it is in the United Kingdom.
The UK has problems it needs to sort out. They're not due to Brexit though.
of course not...
Could it be that Brexit damaged both the U.K. and the EU? You end a marriage, both parties suffer.
Fake news, I’ve never looked back since my divorce.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
I would agree with this
I was a Soft Leaver, I wanted us to exit into EFTA or the EEA and take stock; at the same time I wanted us to get a grip on immigration from ANYWHERE by reducing pull factors - turning the NHS, etc, into contributory systems. You don't get nothing just because you show up
I see there are plenty of posters on here today who are almost ecstatic about this news, and enthusiastically showing their tribalism in all its glory.
That's also depressing. No-one should be cheering such news or using it as a chance to flip the pissing contest.
I do love it when CR accuses folk of tribalism.
Personally I’m annoyed that this government has screwed up and hope their day of reckoning come soon. The Tories need a short sharp wake up call and the country cannot recover until they are gone. They should be ashamed.
"I do love it when CR accuses folk of tribalism."
And then proceeds to be massively tribal...
That's fine. You're an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate - sort of your job - but don't expect not to be called out on it when you roll out your Damian McBride patter.
Fortunately we can all rely on your objectivity.
PS long time, no bicker. Hope all is well with you.
So, we are in formal recession now, but the economy has been bumbling along at 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0 for years now.... in that period we have been running double digit inflation... above 10% ... even now inflation is at 4% while the economy is in 0.2%... that means in real terms, inflation adjusted, we have been in deeeeeep recession for years.
So, we are in formal recession now, but the economy has been bumbling along at 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0 for years now.... in that period we have been running double digit inflation... above 10% ... even now inflation is at 4% while the economy is in 0.2%... that means in real terms, inflation adjusted, we have been in deeeeeep recession for years.
No it doesn't, the figures quoted are always real figures and not nominal ones.
Unfortunately normally just real aggregate figures rather than real per capita ones.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
I would agree with this
I was a Soft Leaver, I wanted us to exit into EFTA or the EEA and take stock; at the same time I wanted us to get a grip on immigration from ANYWHERE by reducing pull factors - turning the NHS, etc, into contributory systems. You don't get nothing just because you show up
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h As I said a few days ago, the economy going into recession probably represents the final nail for Rishi Sunak. And there are now more nails in the coffin than wood. In fact, there is no wood anymore. There’s just nail.
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
Yes but you do not have to look far for people complaining they cannot get jobs. I wonder if this is because employers are looking for unicorns and dismissing applicants who fit only 80 per cent of their requirements.
I don't know anyone who is unemployed who does not want to be. During the recessions of the 80 and 90s I knew dozens.
My nephew is a great example of the current jobs market. He is a nightmare at keeping jobs, after about 3 months he does something daft and either gets the sack or leaves, yet he instantly walks into another job. These jobs have ranged from working as a brickies labourer to being head waiter on a cruise ship in Alaska. In the last 3 years he has obtained 14 jobs and lost 13 of them. He currenttly works at a posh hotel in the New Forest earning an excellent wage. If the job market was tight he would be the last person to get employed but businesses are desperate for staff.
Hmmm - I know someone whose building site he seems to have worked on.
Seriously, we are getting quite a few people wanting to learn on the job. My relative had one chap who was prepared to work on a site as a carpenters assistant to learn the trade, for very little money. Turned out he was spending the wages on evening courses at the local authority evening class place.
Got him some real training, sharpish and he's now a full fledge chippy.
It's bloody tough working on sites in the South of the UK - if nothing else, you may be the only person speaking English (other than very halting, broken English) on the site.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Was it a good thing to replace British industry with imports from Germany? For a time the answer seemed to be yes, but maybe it wasn't.
Autarkic economies like North Korea are notoriously prosperous.
We've been run according to your philosophy for 30 years, and this is where it's got us.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
The Israeli government and IDF response is seen as disproportionate .
People conflating that response with Jews worldwide leads to more anti-Semitism .
It’s really not rocket science !
Interesting victim blaming.
People conflating Israel with Judaism is anti-Semitism.
And Israel's response has been proportionate and restrained, Hamas hasn't yet been destroyed.
I wasn’t victim blaming . Clearly the increase in anti -Semitism didn’t appear out of nowhere . You might view the response as proportionate many others don’t . Not sure why this is so controversial, it’s blatantly obvious that historically there been a correlation between the conflict there and rates of anti -Semitism in the west .
So, we are in formal recession now, but the economy has been bumbling along at 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0 for years now.... in that period we have been running double digit inflation... above 10% ... even now inflation is at 4% while the economy is in 0.2%... that means in real terms, inflation adjusted, we have been in deeeeeep recession for years.
No it doesn't, the figures quoted are always real figures and not nominal ones.
Unfortunately normally just real aggregate figures rather than real per capita ones.
You are wrong... the nominal gdp is not inflation adjusted.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
This is simply confusion caused by experience. Previous recent recession were seen first in the employment figures. The current recession is different.
What is happening, I think, is that the rising prices have caused a demand contraction shock. Things motored on for a while - people spent savings, used the credit card etc. But gradually it has come to a halt.
The next stage may well include job loses - for the moment, demand is falling/static, but there is still a labour shortage. At some point the lines will cross - and employment will fall.
The builders I know say that future jobs are thinning out, by the way.
This fall in employment has been predicted on here for years, but it has not happened. Various theories have been put forward for the reason, but maybe it is just that demand is outstripping supply. Why would any company take on staff if it did not have any work for them to do?
I simply don't believe the figures that the ONS puts out.
I am lucky to live in Hampshire, but the idea that there is any sort of recession going on here is just daft.
We are currently turning down work as we do not have enough staff to do it.
As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?
Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?
The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent
As you well know from your travels, when push comes to shove the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life. Having lived in several continents at very different levels of socioeconomic development and cultural norms, the one thing I would change is the British tendency to self loathing and pessimism. But at least it leads to good sitcoms.
No
"the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life."
Yes there are plenty of provisos about today’s recession news. But there’s no escaping how awful a blow it is for @rishisunak. He staked his reputation on growing the economy. But GDP is essentially flatlining. GDP per head is crumpling.
So, we are in formal recession now, but the economy has been bumbling along at 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0 for years now.... in that period we have been running double digit inflation... above 10% ... even now inflation is at 4% while the economy is in 0.2%... that means in real terms, inflation adjusted, we have been in deeeeeep recession for years.
No it doesn't, the figures quoted are always real figures and not nominal ones.
Unfortunately normally just real aggregate figures rather than real per capita ones.
You are wrong... the nominal gdp is not inflation adjusted.
I know that but nominal GDP growth is not 0.0 🤦♂️
Nominal GDP growth in 2022 was 9.7% - but nobody reported 9.7% growth because nobody quotes nominal figures for obvious reasons.
As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?
Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?
The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent
As you well know from your travels, when push comes to shove the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life. Having lived in several continents at very different levels of socioeconomic development and cultural norms, the one thing I would change is the British tendency to self loathing and pessimism. But at least it leads to good sitcoms.
No
"the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life."
I no longer believe this to be true
I didn't leave Britain. Britain left me.
No, I very much left Britain. I am typing this in the dulcet tropic sunshine of Phnom Penh, on my balcony, anticipating the first gin and tonic ofthe evening, under the brilliant stars
Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out? They are headline seekers. These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
Is that true? There are an awful lot of unsuccessful job applicants about. Not everyone is a builder.
I know I live in the glorious South, but I just keep seeing business advertising for staff with signs outside their premises. Anything from cleaners to skilled technicians.
We currently have 4 vacancies for electricians and mechanical engineers and cannot fill them. £300 per day is now normal for decent tradesman and Site managers can get £400 per day.
A spark who went to school with my daughter and did his apprenticeship with us now works in London and earns £2400 per week at the age of 27 just as a basic spark.
Having expereinced recessions in the 1980s and 1990s and all the shit that came with them, the idea that we are in recession now its something I cannot accept. If you have any sort of skill or trade than your wages will be massively higher than they were 10 years ago.
This is simply confusion caused by experience. Previous recent recession were seen first in the employment figures. The current recession is different.
What is happening, I think, is that the rising prices have caused a demand contraction shock. Things motored on for a while - people spent savings, used the credit card etc. But gradually it has come to a halt.
The next stage may well include job loses - for the moment, demand is falling/static, but there is still a labour shortage. At some point the lines will cross - and employment will fall.
The builders I know say that future jobs are thinning out, by the way.
This fall in employment has been predicted on here for years, but it has not happened. Various theories have been put forward for the reason, but maybe it is just that demand is outstripping supply. Why would any company take on staff if it did not have any work for them to do?
I simply don't believe the figures that the ONS puts out.
I am lucky to live in Hampshire, but the idea that there is any sort of recession going on here is just daft.
We are currently turning down work as we do not have enough staff to do it.
Such a mild recession (so far) is going to be patchy. It's like UNS - an average. So some areas will be going down, some middling, some even rising.
London is definitely slowing down in the building trade. This is probably because of the ultra high housing costs strangling things here, first.
Interest rates sky rocket to control the inflation which arose from the monetisation of fiscal incontinence during covid. Gdp growth takes a hit. Tories lose election. You reap what you sow Rishi. If you’d grown a pair we’d have been saved the pointlessness of lockdowns 2, 3 and the omicron flap. And you’d now be romping home to victory. Tough luck that the other lot wanted you to stay shut down (and hence borrow) even more.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
School history always, by which I mean it did in my day, concentrated on the suffragettes rather than suffragists, probably because they were more newsworthy.
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
I know. Women having the vote and look where it's got us...
Fuck know where all this anti-Semitism is coming from. I really have no clue
irony is dead
Where is the anti-Semitism coming from, then?
It is just anti-xxxxx by the nastier elements of the UK populace. It's a well known fact that when some people find it tough to live/work they immediately blame other people, and when certain groups of politicians find it tough, they exploit this. There has been anti-semitism throughout the 20th C, as wella s anti black, anti muslim etc.
So, total denial of the obvious facts. We all know where it is coming from, see the resignation of Mike Freer when he had to resign as a minister due to anti-Semitism. He was quite explicit where it comes from
But in your tiny tiny tiny atom of a brain it must come from some pale fat skinheads in Devon or something, because you can't cope with the truth
Not denial of obvious facts, and I don't live in Devon btw. I just have the knowledge of British attitudes back to the 70s to give a fuller picture.
No need to be abusive about the size of my brain either, it's just as big as yours, however much it is used ..
A note that Friday is Judgement Day for Mr Trump in the USA Business Fraud case; Judge Engoron will be identifying the penalty for fraud, and whether Trump will get his lifetime or long term ban from the Property business in NY State.
Points are what regard will be paid to the testimony Trump Financial Controller who is reportedly in negotiations to plead guilty in another trial, having been caught in the act, what will happen to Trump's lawyers who seem (not my area) potentially to be in violation of New York legal ethics' law, and how seriously the business has been maladministered / offences continued since this started.
A 13 minute primer on the factors involved, and why it has been delayed for several weeks. Meidas Touch, so anti-Trump partisan - but decent legal analysis and exploration of context imo.
One area of future controversy may be the uniqueness of New York law.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
So, we are in formal recession now, but the economy has been bumbling along at 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.0 for years now.... in that period we have been running double digit inflation... above 10% ... even now inflation is at 4% while the economy is in 0.2%... that means in real terms, inflation adjusted, we have been in deeeeeep recession for years.
No it doesn't, the figures quoted are always real figures and not nominal ones.
Unfortunately normally just real aggregate figures rather than real per capita ones.
You are wrong... the nominal gdp is not inflation adjusted.
I know that but nominal GDP growth is not 0.0 🤦♂️
Nominal GDP growth in 2022 was 9.7% - but nobody reported 9.7% growth because nobody quotes nominal figures for obvious reasons.
The Israeli government and IDF response is seen as disproportionate .
People conflating that response with Jews worldwide leads to more anti-Semitism .
It’s really not rocket science !
Interesting victim blaming.
People conflating Israel with Judaism is anti-Semitism.
And Israel's response has been proportionate and restrained, Hamas hasn't yet been destroyed.
I wasn’t victim blaming . Clearly the increase in anti -Semitism didn’t appear out of nowhere . You might view the response as proportionate many others don’t . Not sure why this is so controversial, it’s blatantly obvious that historically there been a correlation between the conflict there and rates of anti -Semitism in the west .
And note that 4 - "People conflating that response with Jews worldwide leads to more anti-Semitism." is the bit where the racism comes in.
We had poster here, just yesterday, who thought that Jews living in the UK needed to be ashamed of what Israel was doing and understand that the Star of David was a problem for others.
I wonder if the same person would have been AOK with some light spitting on Muslims, graffiti on mosques etc after the London Bombings. I mean, same religion, right?
Britain is in the state it’s in because for 14 years we’ve been governed by politicians who definition of success is a headline in the Mail/Telegraph/Spectator and a quick buck for their mates.
Basically, we are all going to blame our own pet peeves for this miserable state of affairs
I will blame mass immigration: very much starting under Labour
Well, we will soon find out. Labour will be in power and they will have to fix this shit. I predict they will be a modest failure, the country will not collapse but we will continue the decline. Hence my advice to Brits: get out
Can you engage with what we would do instead of migration? We need skilled healthcare professionals and we're unwilling to train them or pay them properly. We need factory workers and care home staff and we're unwilling to pay them properly. We blame the people out of work but work doesn't pay and even if it did there's no childcare (either at all out of hours or at a viable cost) or public transport.
We can work to transition away from migration, but that means years of angry people like your good self spending public money on things you hate like training nurses or childcare for single mothers.
Can you engage with the counterfactual? If Blair hadn't opened the floodgates and set us on the path of becoming, as many people see it, dependent on mass immigration, is it possible that we would be in a better position now?
We would be in a much worse position. Our population would on average be much older, we would have had much less growth through the Labour years.
The 'growth' we had during the Labour years was illusory, as the crash and subsequent stagnation shows.
Can we have another decade of illusory growth please? Beats another decade of decline.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
A good post but I'd argue that those who led us into this blind alley weren't 'the citizens of nowhere' in the Theresa May meaning but the worst of the worst 'The little Englanders'. The Rees Moggs. The English exceptionalists of which we have several examples on here.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
The evidence is pretty clear that the UK and the rest of Europe are struggling, and there is no British unique problem. Britain is not the sick man of Europe, Europe is sick. You can look over a longer timescale and across the whole of Europe and its the same thing.
Oh and I know that chart is affected by FX but in that timescale GBP/EUR has averaged remarkably flat so that cancels out.
Unless you think under the stunning and successful domestic stewardship of our economy we would as a counterfactual have grown considerably better than Europe (why?) its hard not to say that we need to look elsewhere for our problems.
And there is a credible elsewhere: Our failure to invest in infrastructure. Our high taxes going on current expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
That's interesting - thanks.
Which level in the system? Undergraduate, presumably.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
School history always, by which I mean it did in my day, concentrated on the suffragettes rather than suffragists, probably because they were more newsworthy.
I actually noted above why I think this is the case.
Poor leadership wouldn't have helped but the reason the Tories face wipeout is all here. Even if voters can stand the social consequences of their 2016 vote which is becomming more significant by the day the economic consequences are here for all to see. Johnson farage Cameron Cummings and 90% of present Tory MPs having shot themselves in the foot should now aim higher
I agree. I think Occam's Razor applies here. If it walks like a duck...
The Brexiteers will spin off into a million different directions trying to argue that it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Our poor performance cannot possibly be anything to do with the absolute insanity of taking ourselves out of the Single Market and ending Freedom of Movement. The ever mounting pile of reports from think tanks, banks, universities, economists off all stripes, that argue, with clear robust evidence, that Brexit has caused huge, and lasting, economic damage well, they're all wrong.
Still, the rich citizens of nowhere who conned us into this are doing absolutely fine. So sod the rest of us, eh?
It is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, the fact that things are even worse in France isn't a cheery thought and doesn't make anything better for us, but rather dismisses the notion this has anything to do with Brexit.
The reason we're struggling is almost solely due to a failure to invest and a resulting failure to boost productivity. We have increasing numbers of people using the same infrastructure we had in the past. To take just one example we've this century seen a 15% growth in population but only a 1% growth in roads (almost all local ones for our limited amount of new houses, not new strategic roads). We need major construction of new roads and other infrastructure that can enable productivity growth as has worked in the past.
We need to scale our infrastructure with our population. New houses, new roads, new rail, new everything else we are missing.
Its expensive, but so too is not having productivity, and its a capital expense not a current expense.
You will have to provide a citation for this "fall in French GDP per capita" and "France doing even worse than us" because, like others, I am not seeing it in the data
Evidence?
World Bank data.
Only goes to 2022 to be fair, 2023 data is in flux and not especially reliable but even adding in the 2023 data it doesn't change the big picture of the last few years. Western Europe is struggling across the board and its not a uniquely British phenomenon.
Isn't that just fluctuation in FX rates?
But fair enough for at least providing SOME evidence
France and the UK track pretty closely (just flicking through the stats). It's certainly not the gotcha that Barty thinks it is.
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
Was it a good thing to replace British industry with imports from Germany? For a time the answer seemed to be yes, but maybe it wasn't.
Autarkic economies like North Korea are notoriously prosperous.
We've been run according to your philosophy for 30 years, and this is where it's got us.
How did the City cope before mass immigration?
They had 3 hour lunches and only hired people they'd been to school with. That's why all the British firms got taken over after the Big Bang.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
I know. Women having the vote and look where it's got us...
Suffragettes didn't get women the vote. Their actions were a hindrance, not a help.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
That's completely wrong. The slow growth long predated our leaving the EU; many other European countries are experiencing chronically slow growth and in fact we are doing better than some of them; and in any case the proportion of our economy exposed to trade from the EU is relatively small (exports to the EU are about 11-12% of GDP I think), so you wouldn't expect it to have much of an effect in any case.
Our chronically slow growth (shared with most other Western European countries) is caused by virtually everything else except leaving the EU:
- high taxes and regulations (e.g. planning or net zero), which cripple the supply side of the economy; - the lockdowns, which were implemented in a way designed to cause maximum economic damage; - demographic changes; welfare dependency, with a fifth of the working age population economically inactive; - the fallout from the 2007-08 financial crisis and the rundown of North Sea oil and gas, which have crippled our two most important industries; - the energy and food price shocks from the war in Ukraine, etc etc.
Given all those the surprise is that we ever manage any growth at all, in the EU or out of it.
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Some of them are reasonable. Windrush. Mildmay. Weaver is a bit dubious but there was some weaving on some parts of the line, so it can pass.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
I know. Women having the vote and look where it's got us...
Suffragettes didn't get women the vote. Their actions were a hindrance, not a help.
Khan has set a cruel trap. Some Tory will say something like this on GB News and then Labour can claim it's an attack on women.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
The Suffragettes were ghastly.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
I know. Women having the vote and look where it's got us...
Suffragettes didn't get women the vote. Their actions were a hindrance, not a help.
Khan has set a cruel trap. Some Tory will say something like this on GB News and then Labour can claim it's an attack on women.
And then they sweetly point out it was the Conservatives gave women the vote after the actions of Labour aligned suffragettes led Asquith to block it for two decades - in alliance with leading trade unions who definitely did *not* want women in their trades putting downward pressure on wages.
At which point Labour will look stupid. For no reason whatsoever except Khan's desire to be right on.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
That's interesting - thanks.
Which level in the system? Undergraduate, presumably.
No - A Level. But I give her piles of books. Plus a lot of stuff is available on the internet, for free. She is genuinely interested in History and ready quite a lot outside the syllabus.
She really liked the character portraits of the players in Dreadnought, by Massie, for example.
EDIT: I was reading The Guns of August at about 14, IIRC.
Pop quiz: Is anyone here actually against us rejoining EEA/EFTA?
EEA/EFTA membership will presumably require us to join the regulatory framework, and so the most treasured benefit of Brexit - not having to adhere to someone else's rules - will be lost. The advocates of Brexit made it clear time and time again that this is the one benefit they would never surrender. Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven etc.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
That's the past. It's toe curling and every other possible emotional response inducing. It's a foreign country and an alien planet. For some, there is no aspect of it whatsoever not requiring either banning or trigger warnings.
But this has two problems: One, there is nothing else for us to have. The future does not exist, and the present moment is transient. History, the past, is the only subject there is.
Two: the present has Gaza, Sudan, child abuse, Ukraine, Trump, famine, disease and misery unlimited.
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Some of them are reasonable. Windrush. Mildmay. Weaver is a bit dubious but there was some weaving on some parts of the line, so it can pass.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
I can see why they liked the Suffragettes...
*Not necessarily including Leon here.
I can help with the Liberty one...
Havering is a silly name for a place, after all. The Royal Liberty of Havering was set up in 1465. Based on the royal manor in the village of Havering atte Bower, it roughly covered the area that became Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster.
So when the London borough was created in 1965, Havering was a nice neutral name. And Liberty is how we describe ourselves when we want to be classy. Borough motto, Royal Liberty School, Liberty Shopping Centre... We struggle with being classy sometimes.
L to the I to the B to the E to the R to the TY, though I don't think they're actually from Romford.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
Why does Jackie Weaver get a line named after her ?
Unless you think Tory-led Britain should have grown considerably faster per capita than France. In which case: Why?
We have real problems in the UK to address without tilting at windmills. Brexit is not the problem, our current economic mismanagement is the problem.
If a new government invests in capital invest over current expenditure then we might have a hope of having real growth. If it expands current expenditure and cancels more capital investment then we won't. Whether we're in the Single Market or not is neither here nor there.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
John Springford stopped updating his counterfactual because it ceased to show what he wanted it to.
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Some of them are reasonable. Windrush. Mildmay. Weaver is a bit dubious but there was some weaving on some parts of the line, so it can pass.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
Pop quiz: Is anyone here actually against us rejoining EEA/EFTA?
EEA/EFTA membership will presumably require us to join the regulatory framework, and so the most treasured benefit of Brexit - not having to adhere to someone else's rules - will be lost. The advocates of Brexit made it clear time and time again that this is the one benefit they would never surrender. Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven etc.
I think @Leon stumbled on a good idea. With the US looking shaky, leverage UK defence. Boost to 3% or even 4% of GDP, enter into a new NATO style pact with the EU in exchange for customs union. Has the welcome side effect of making us look more credible on the world stage too.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
The evidence is pretty clear that the UK and the rest of Europe are struggling, and there is no British unique problem. Britain is not the sick man of Europe, Europe is sick. You can look over a longer timescale and across the whole of Europe and its the same thing.
Oh and I know that chart is affected by FX but in that timescale GBP/EUR has averaged remarkably flat so that cancels out.
Unless you think under the stunning and successful domestic stewardship of our economy we would as a counterfactual have grown considerably better than Europe (why?) its hard not to say that we need to look elsewhere for our problems.
And there is a credible elsewhere: Our failure to invest in infrastructure. Our high taxes going on current expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
That's the past. It's toe curling and every other possible emotional response inducing. It's a foreign country and an alien planet. For some, there is no aspect of it whatsoever not requiring either banning or trigger warnings.
But this has two problems: One, there is nothing else for us to have. The future does not exist, and the present moment is transient. History, the past, is the only subject there is.
Two: the present has Gaza, Sudan, child abuse, Ukraine, Trump, famine, disease and misery unlimited.
It was, I think to do with seeing the Suffragettes as heroines. Then reading their actual thoughts. Which were exactly in line with what you'd expect from a bunch of upper class ladies of the period.
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
The evidence is pretty clear that the UK and the rest of Europe are struggling, and there is no British unique problem. Britain is not the sick man of Europe, Europe is sick. You can look over a longer timescale and across the whole of Europe and its the same thing.
Oh and I know that chart is affected by FX but in that timescale GBP/EUR has averaged remarkably flat so that cancels out.
Unless you think under the stunning and successful domestic stewardship of our economy we would as a counterfactual have grown considerably better than Europe (why?) its hard not to say that we need to look elsewhere for our problems.
And there is a credible elsewhere: Our failure to invest in infrastructure. Our high taxes going on current expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
FX and inflation, these are nominal GDP numbers.
FX and inflation have been pretty consistent across the period for both Europe and Britain.
But if you want a PPP and inflation-adjusted version, where's the Brexit effect here?
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Some of them are reasonable. Windrush. Mildmay. Weaver is a bit dubious but there was some weaving on some parts of the line, so it can pass.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
I can see why they liked the Suffragettes...
*Not necessarily including Leon here.
I can help with the Liberty one...
Havering is a silly name for a place, after all. The Royal Liberty of Havering was set up in 1465. Based on the royal manor in the village of Havering atte Bower, it roughly covered the area that became Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster.
So when the London borough was created in 1965, Havering was a nice neutral name. And Liberty is how we describe ourselves when we want to be classy. Borough motto, Royal Liberty School, Liberty Shopping Centre... We struggle with being classy sometimes.
L to the I to the B to the E to the R to the TY, though I don't think they're actually from Romford.
Everyone will surely still call it the Push and Pull
Talk to Tories privately and they are HORRIFIED and ashamed by what their own party has done to this country. They wouldn't vote for themselves. That's the bitter truth, @RishiSunak
Whisper it, and I'm not claiming this is typical, but I've heard card-carrying Conservatives wonder for the first time if our national malaise does not trace back to Thatcherism.
We like simple things to blame it on that everyone knows that invoke strong emotions: Thatcher, the EU, Brexit, austerity etc..
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
That is undoubtedly true but we need to figure out what is going on because we are in a deep economic malaise and it really needs fixing. While it is likely to reflect a complex confluence of factors, nevertheless it is likely that some parts of the story are more important than others. It is hard not to think that Brexit is an important driver given that how things are playing out is very similar to what was expected beforehand, and analyses (eg John Springford's GDP counterfactual) point to a growth impact fairly precisely aligned with Brexit. I really think it is up to Brexit advocates to demonstrate that it isn't having an effect, because as someone who looks at the economy for a living the evidence available right now looks pretty damning.
The evidence is pretty clear that the UK and the rest of Europe are struggling, and there is no British unique problem. Britain is not the sick man of Europe, Europe is sick. You can look over a longer timescale and across the whole of Europe and its the same thing.
Oh and I know that chart is affected by FX but in that timescale GBP/EUR has averaged remarkably flat so that cancels out.
Unless you think under the stunning and successful domestic stewardship of our economy we would as a counterfactual have grown considerably better than Europe (why?) its hard not to say that we need to look elsewhere for our problems.
And there is a credible elsewhere: Our failure to invest in infrastructure. Our high taxes going on current expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
FX and inflation, these are nominal GDP numbers.
FX and inflation have been pretty consistent across the period for both Europe and Britain.
But if you want a PPP and inflation-adjusted version, where's the Brexit effect here?
Brexit damaged the French economy too?
Using some random stats from the internet and a highly aggressive debating style, I will now assert this for 2.75 hours.
Torsten Bell @TorstenBell · 2h Seriously people - look at what's happening in terms of GDP/capita (which is what ultimately matters for our living standards). This is a proper recession just being hidden by having more people - GDP/capita declined 0.7 per cent in 2023 with falls in every single quarter
It is just that we are familiar with banal tube line names: Circle, Central, Northern and so on.
The Circle line isn't a circle, and the Northern line goes further south than any other tube line. I can't comment on all the new Overground names but my local line, the Windrush line, seems very aptly named.
Some of them are reasonable. Windrush. Mildmay. Weaver is a bit dubious but there was some weaving on some parts of the line, so it can pass.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
I can see why they liked the Suffragettes...
*Not necessarily including Leon here.
I can help with the Liberty one...
Havering is a silly name for a place, after all. The Royal Liberty of Havering was set up in 1465. Based on the royal manor in the village of Havering atte Bower, it roughly covered the area that became Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster.
So when the London borough was created in 1965, Havering was a nice neutral name. And Liberty is how we describe ourselves when we want to be classy. Borough motto, Royal Liberty School, Liberty Shopping Centre... We struggle with being classy sometimes.
L to the I to the B to the E to the R to the TY, though I don't think they're actually from Romford.
It's better than Havering, ask Malcolm what Havering means in Scottish....
Typical millennials talking BS about history, in that case.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
My eldest daughter is doing modern history. She found reading the primary sources on the Suffragettes toe curling. Their actual books and personal opinions....
That's the past. It's toe curling and every other possible emotional response inducing. It's a foreign country and an alien planet. For some, there is no aspect of it whatsoever not requiring either banning or trigger warnings.
But this has two problems: One, there is nothing else for us to have. The future does not exist, and the present moment is transient. History, the past, is the only subject there is.
Two: the present has Gaza, Sudan, child abuse, Ukraine, Trump, famine, disease and misery unlimited.
It was, I think to do with seeing the Suffragettes as heroines. Then reading their actual thoughts. Which were exactly in line with what you'd expect from a bunch of upper class ladies of the period.
History has been very kind to the suffragettes. Arguably they set back the cause of women's suffrage by years. There was a less radical and more effective movement for the cause who have been completely forgotten by history.
Comments
The problem with economics is you cannot test the counterfactuals. It's equally valid to state that the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit.
And sometimes you need to take a step back. Do you think trade with Europe is a good or bad thing for the UK economy? Do you think leaving the customs union was a good or bad thing for the UK economy? I'm not sure you need rigorous economic analysis to come to a safe conclusion.
What is happening, I think, is that the rising prices have caused a demand contraction shock. Things motored on for a while - people spent savings, used the credit card etc. But gradually it has come to a halt.
The next stage may well include job loses - for the moment, demand is falling/static, but there is still a labour shortage. At some point the lines will cross - and employment will fall.
The builders I know say that future jobs are thinning out, by the way.
I think that's incorrect in one respect. Only a minority of Usonians own guns. On a quick lookup, from a Gallup poll several years ago it is about a third:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household. Adults living in gun households include those with a gun in their home or anywhere on their property.
Gallup has tracked both metrics of gun ownership annually since 2007, showing no clear increase or decrease in gun ownership over that time.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/264932/percentage-americans-own-guns.aspx
Even eg Texas is in line.
For one demographic factor, I'd perhaps point to extensive urbanisation in the USA being around a century behind the UK. UK was 80%+ urbanised by 1890; in the USA it did not reach that number until post-2000.
And country people - as in the UK - have a greater familiarity with guns in the normal patterns of life. Urbanisation in certain European countries eg France is also comparatively later.
That speaks somewhat to attempts to reduce guns in society, as background.
Does it help in practice? I'm not sure.
Personally I’m annoyed that this government has screwed up and hope their day of reckoning come soon. The Tories need a short sharp wake up call and the country cannot recover until they are gone. They should be ashamed.
In truth, our problems are much deeper and complex than that, but require too much nuance and explanation to understand so simplicity wins.
Why would it be "equally valid" to state the UK would be doing much better than France were it not for Brexit? Take away any hubris and do you have a reason for that? Is it because our economic policies in the last few years have been much better than France's policies? Has our tax and spend been much better than theirs? Has our investment in capital infrastructure been much better than theirs?
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
As I said a few days ago, the economy going into recession probably represents the final nail for Rishi Sunak. And there are now more nails in the coffin than wood. In fact, there is no wood anymore. There’s just nail.
Some have expressed the opinion, to me, that the Labour Government will fix this by opening up immigration even more, so reduce the wages at the low end. So there is no need to invest (spit! spit!) in equipment.
My nephew is a great example of the current jobs market. He is a nightmare at keeping jobs, after about 3 months he does something daft and either gets the sack or leaves, yet he instantly walks into another job. These jobs have ranged from working as a brickies labourer to being head waiter on a cruise ship in Alaska. In the last 3 years he has obtained 14 jobs and lost 13 of them. He currenttly works at a posh hotel in the New Forest earning an excellent wage. If the job market was tight he would be the last person to get employed but businesses are desperate for staff.
But in your tiny tiny tiny atom of a brain it must come from some pale fat skinheads in Devon or something, because you can't cope with the truth
And then proceeds to be massively tribal...
That's fine. You're an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate - sort of your job - but don't expect not to be called out on it when you roll out your Damian McBride patter.
Suffragette line? Typical millennials celebrating universal franchise.
Israel initially has a lot of goodwill .
The Israeli government and IDF response is seen as disproportionate .
People conflating that response with Jews worldwide leads to more anti-Semitism .
It’s really not rocket science !
I was a Soft Leaver, I wanted us to exit into EFTA or the EEA and take stock; at the same time I wanted us to get a grip on immigration from ANYWHERE by reducing pull factors - turning the NHS, etc, into contributory systems. You don't get nothing just because you show up
PS long time, no bicker. Hope all is well with you.
People conflating Israel with Judaism is anti-Semitism.
And Israel's response has been proportionate and restrained, Hamas hasn't yet been destroyed.
Unfortunately normally just real aggregate figures rather than real per capita ones.
He can be quite sharp with the words, Mr Hodges
Seriously, we are getting quite a few people wanting to learn on the job. My relative had one chap who was prepared to work on a site as a carpenters assistant to learn the trade, for very little money. Turned out he was spending the wages on evening courses at the local authority evening class place.
Got him some real training, sharpish and he's now a full fledge chippy.
It's bloody tough working on sites in the South of the UK - if nothing else, you may be the only person speaking English (other than very halting, broken English) on the site.
Named to celebrate how London's East End working-class community fought for women's rights, the line also runs to Barking, home of the longest-surviving suffragette, Annie Huggett, who died aged 103. On the map it will be marked with green parallel lines
The Suffragettes were dominated by rich women, and in fact were very reluctant to let poorer women near them...Annie Huggett was especially noticeable because she was an exception, but it was Sylvia she was closest to.
I don't know who's advising him. Tristram Hunt, perhaps? Or some gender studies specialist at a third rate uni like QMUL or RHUL who twists the facts to their theories?
Adrena Line
Mascu Line
Trampo Line
Washing Line
Fishing Line
Onedin Line.
How did the City cope before mass immigration?
And that's just the born and bred locals ...
Prepare for the Thatcher Line, Dowding Line, Rhodes Line, Nelson Line and Brunel Line.
It'd be like us raising monuments to Just Stop Oil or XR in 100 years time.
I simply don't believe the figures that the ONS puts out.
I am lucky to live in Hampshire, but the idea that there is any sort of recession going on here is just daft.
We are currently turning down work as we do not have enough staff to do it.
- The Weaver line probably celebrates Randy Weaver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Weaver
Lines named after the great railway engineers would be good. Plenty to choose from.
Yes there are plenty of provisos about today’s recession news.
But there’s no escaping how awful a blow it is for @rishisunak.
He staked his reputation on growing the economy.
But GDP is essentially flatlining.
GDP per head is crumpling.
Remember Horace Cutler renaming the Fleet Line to the Jubilee? Or that man Boris and the Elizabeth Line?
Nominal GDP growth in 2022 was 9.7% - but nobody reported 9.7% growth because nobody quotes nominal figures for obvious reasons.
London is definitely slowing down in the building trade. This is probably because of the ultra high housing costs strangling things here, first.
No need to be abusive about the size of my brain either, it's just as big as yours, however much it is used ..
Points are what regard will be paid to the testimony Trump Financial Controller who is reportedly in negotiations to plead guilty in another trial, having been caught in the act, what will happen to Trump's lawyers who seem (not my area) potentially to be in violation of New York legal ethics' law, and how seriously the business has been maladministered / offences continued since this started.
A 13 minute primer on the factors involved, and why it has been delayed for several weeks. Meidas Touch, so anti-Trump partisan - but decent legal analysis and exploration of context imo.
One area of future controversy may be the uniqueness of New York law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKzLmPY7VMc
We had poster here, just yesterday, who thought that Jews living in the UK needed to be ashamed of what Israel was doing and understand that the Star of David was a problem for others.
I wonder if the same person would have been AOK with some light spitting on Muslims, graffiti on mosques etc after the London Bombings. I mean, same religion, right?
After yesterday’s inflation news there must have been relief in 10. Today’s GDP figures are a disaster for Sunak.
They can spin it’s a technical recession , backward looking data blah blah ....
The fact is one of his pledges has imploded . Hunt standing there saying the plan is working only makes matters worse .
It just looks delusional and out of touch .
Oh and I know that chart is affected by FX but in that timescale GBP/EUR has averaged remarkably flat so that cancels out.
Unless you think under the stunning and successful domestic stewardship of our economy we would as a counterfactual have grown considerably better than Europe (why?) its hard not to say that we need to look elsewhere for our problems.
And there is a credible elsewhere: Our failure to invest in infrastructure. Our high taxes going on current expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
Which level in the system? Undergraduate, presumably.
And "it's a nightmare but there's not a lot I can do about it" might be more accurate but it's unsayable.
(Brunel's ok though. I'd go on that one)
Right now it feels like all of Britain is a haunted hotel
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-check-in-to-a-haunted-hotel/
Our chronically slow growth (shared with most other Western European countries) is caused by virtually everything else except leaving the EU:
- high taxes and regulations (e.g. planning or net zero), which cripple the supply side of the economy;
- the lockdowns, which were implemented in a way designed to cause maximum economic damage;
- demographic changes; welfare dependency, with a fifth of the working age population economically inactive;
- the fallout from the 2007-08 financial crisis and the rundown of North Sea oil and gas, which have crippled our two most important industries;
- the energy and food price shocks from the war in Ukraine, etc etc.
Given all those the surprise is that we ever manage any growth at all, in the EU or out of it.
Others are silly. Suffragettes. Liberty (what does that even mean in this context)? Lionesses, well, at the moment they're riding high but the reasoning seems forced.
It illustrates one of the issues with the current left wing thinking - even when they have a good underlying point they tend to push it to far and leaving sensible people* thinking 'wtf?'
I can see why they liked the Suffragettes...
*Not necessarily including Leon here.
At which point Labour will look stupid. For no reason whatsoever except Khan's desire to be right on.
She really liked the character portraits of the players in Dreadnought, by Massie, for example.
EDIT: I was reading The Guns of August at about 14, IIRC.
Nelson was a champion of the disability community, surely?
Kiss me Hardy.
But this has two problems: One, there is nothing else for us to have. The future does not exist, and the present moment is transient. History, the past, is the only subject there is.
Two: the present has Gaza, Sudan, child abuse, Ukraine, Trump, famine, disease and misery unlimited.
Havering is a silly name for a place, after all. The Royal Liberty of Havering was set up in 1465. Based on the royal manor in the village of Havering atte Bower, it roughly covered the area that became Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster.
So when the London borough was created in 1965, Havering was a nice neutral name. And Liberty is how we describe ourselves when we want to be classy. Borough motto, Royal Liberty School, Liberty Shopping Centre... We struggle with being classy sometimes.
L to the I to the B to the E to the R to the TY, though I don't think they're actually from Romford.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2022&locations=GB-FR&start=2016
Unless you think Tory-led Britain should have grown considerably faster per capita than France. In which case: Why?
We have real problems in the UK to address without tilting at windmills. Brexit is not the problem, our current economic mismanagement is the problem.
If a new government invests in capital invest over current expenditure then we might have a hope of having real growth. If it expands current expenditure and cancels more capital investment then we won't. Whether we're in the Single Market or not is neither here nor there.
Noted as a humane employer of working class, at a time when conditions in the RN were deteriorating for the workforce.
https://mastodon.world/@CountBinface/111934777237031296
But if you want a PPP and inflation-adjusted version, where's the Brexit effect here?
Using some random stats from the internet and a highly aggressive debating style, I will now assert this for 2.75 hours.
Torsten Bell
@TorstenBell
·
2h
Seriously people - look at what's happening in terms of GDP/capita (which is what ultimately matters for our living standards). This is a proper recession just being hidden by having more people - GDP/capita declined 0.7 per cent in 2023 with falls in every single quarter