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Not the news Rishi wanted on double by-election day – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited March 12 in General
imageNot the news Rishi wanted on double by-election day – politicalbetting.com

Exclusive: Bombshell MRP poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of their seatsFull seat-by-seat results and map ?https://t.co/1Kg0kWRSPi

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    Oh Rishi Sunak, there's touch of the Truss about him.
  • Options
    I am sure there will be some who will try and present all of this news as bad for Starmer and Labour, we thank you for adding to the gaiety of the UK.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,091
    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    At least Rishi has the economy to lift his spirits. No, wait.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    Hunt “ the plan is working “ . Embarrassing .
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Almost no chatter about these two by elections.
    Have they been written off?
    Remarkable, if true.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,126
    Jonathan said:

    At least Rishi has the economy to lift his spirits. No, wait.

    The economy grew by 0.1% over 2023. A win is a win.

    ( Despite that and joking aside, some of TSE's stats are seriously alarming. Thanks in particular for the Andy Bruce tweet).
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @UKLabour

    Rishi Sunak’s Economic Plan: Part 2


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    dixiedean said:

    Almost no chatter about these two by elections.
    Have they been written off?
    Remarkable, if true.

    Yes, the Tory candidate in Kingswood has said if he wins he won't stand again (so what's bloody point) and picking Peter Bone's mistress as the candidate in Wellingborough saw CCHQ pull the plug and hardly any ministers have gone to Wellingborough.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Good header. So, Sunak is on 1 out of 5 pledges succeeded (the one that the Bank of England does, not the government).
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    That's in the header.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    edited February 15
    -----> "...longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955" <-----
    . . . . ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @PaulBrandITV

    The Lib Dems have already dubbed the economic slump “Rishi’s recession”. Politically this is a nightmare for a PM who promised to grow the economy as one of his five pledges.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    There’s an obvious absence of political leadership in the U.K. Sunak cannot even do managerial competence. We’re going nowhere as a country. Tomorrow is no longer better than today. Not just a technical recession an actual recession.

    Just waiting for him to call the election.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,890
    edited February 15
    longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949
    edited February 15
    If there isn't an election in May expect the Tories to lose a minimum of 200 seats - 11-1 for between 250+ loses is definitely value...

    Because a councillor who loses their seat in May isn't going out to campaign in October / November so come this Autumn there will be very few people knocking on doors to encourage people to vote for Rishi and co...
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,890
    Eabhal said:

    longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    In case anyone missed it

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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    Tories have broken the economy, and the only solution proposed (by Truss) was to blow it up completely.

    At the end of the last thread there was the suggestion that wage restraint was needed. Restraint? The price of everything shot up and has stayed up. Wages are nowhere near enough to cover the increase. People have less to spend, cash circulation drops - 7 quarters of no growth.

    Labour will not have a magic wand. But the Tories just don't care about ordinary people, and many of them are too stupid to understand.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,235
    Biden continues to improve in the polls since the Special Counsel called him an elderly man with a poor memory and he appeared to forget which century we are in:

    Yougov Feb 11-13th
    Biden 44%
    Trump 44%
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent
  • Options
    ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON***

    In May 2022 I predicted a 2023 recession.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/08/a-uk-recession-in-2022/
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    Scott_xP said:

    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    Tories have broken the economy, and the only solution proposed (by Truss) was to blow it up completely.

    At the end of the last thread there was the suggestion that wage restraint was needed. Restraint? The price of everything shot up and has stayed up. Wages are nowhere near enough to cover the increase. People have less to spend, cash circulation drops - 7 quarters of no growth.

    Labour will not have a magic wand. But the Tories just don't care about ordinary people, and many of them are too stupid to understand.
    The call for wage restraint came from the Bank of England - sorry but the fact people's mortgages are increasing by £x00 a month is why they are seeking a pay rise - so the reason for the lack of pay restraint rests on your previous decisions (or the delay in them) which means that interest rates are at 5.25% and not the 4.75% they would have been if you started the increases earlier.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,126
    ....

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    Meanwhile back on Planet Earth...
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @Keir_Starmer

    Rishi Sunak has failed to turn the corner on 14 years of Tory economic decline.

    Britain is hit by a recession and it’s working people who will pay the price.

    It's time for change. Only Labour will deliver it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    You voted for it
    Ponzi-scheme mass migration started under Blair in 1997. We were promised 13,000 Poles, 1 million showed up; this insanity has continued under the Tories, we are now reaping what we have sowed for nearly three decades of utter stupidity - and Starmer hasn't a clue how to stop it. We are seriously fucked
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    Nike swoosh, anyone?

    (Yes, there are external factors, and decades worth of chickens coming home to roost. It's not fair to blame this government for everything. But politics isn't fair.)
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,121
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    In case anyone missed it

    Given it was two posts above this, unlikely.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    moonshine said:

    A good (*) take on the oh-my-god-we're-all-going-to-die nukes-in-space drama:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOdTfkJojK4

    TL;DR: it's not much to worry about; not a space EMP; not a FOBS. It's more Republicans weaponising intelligence against Ukraine.

    (*) Good, because I agree with it.

    That’s a Superbad take. The statement was issued by Mike Turner, who is one of the House Republicans most vocal about SUPPORTING Ukraine with further military funding. Meanwhile MAGA types likes Marjorie Taylor Greene have responded with word salads about the Mexican border and Biden being senile.
    It's a very good take; and certainly better than the 'ohmygodwe'reallgoingtodie' idiots make out. Also, why do *you* think Turner's doing this?
    Because Turner (and others behind the scenes) wish to knock some heads together on the Republican side to either pressure Johnson into letting the bill go to the floor to the vote, or as cover when they put their names to a Discharge Petition. “Putin isn’t your friend you idiots! Look at the sort of shit he’s up to”.

    Now you can query whether Turner really cares about Ukrainian sovereignty, recognises the proxy fight as being crucial in the US retaining its hegemonic status, or whether the bill is merely useful for defence contractors - he is a creature of Lockheed Martin. But it’s a simple misunderstanding of the politics and motivations to think this is somehow a MAGA masterplan to stop the flow of military aid to Ukraine.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,126
    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Bish, bash, bosh. Loadsamoney!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited February 15
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    Tories have broken the economy, and the only solution proposed (by Truss) was to blow it up completely.

    At the end of the last thread there was the suggestion that wage restraint was needed. Restraint? The price of everything shot up and has stayed up. Wages are nowhere near enough to cover the increase. People have less to spend, cash circulation drops - 7 quarters of no growth.

    Labour will not have a magic wand. But the Tories just don't care about ordinary people, and many of them are too stupid to understand.
    The call for wage restraint came from the Bank of England - sorry but the fact people's mortgages are increasing by £x00 a month is why they are seeking a pay rise - so the reason for the lack of pay restraint rests on your previous decisions (or the delay in them) which means that interest rates are at 5.25% and not the 4.75% they would have been if you started the increases earlier.
    If we go back to ultra low interest rates we're screwing the economy in other ways though. Stoking bubbles in housing and over-leveraging business. And hammering pensions.

    Perhaps a reduction to say 4% would be reasonable but if we ever go back to 0.25% something is very wrong somewhere.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197
    Well, I was right about inflation but wrong about the recession.

    2023 was a truly abysmal year for growth but that is hardly surprising given the extraordinary costs incurred in relation to energy costs and commodity costs. Such shocks previously have produced serious recessions. The prolonged period of real wage cuts leading into 2023 and persisting until Q3 was also a factor. I thought that the government's extraordinary expenditure in subsidising fuel bills would be enough to offset it but it wasn't quite.

    What we need is growth driven by investment. The trimming of capital expenditure, such as HS2, to maintain current expenditure is a mistake. The difference between what Biden has managed in the US and we have managed is marked and capital spending is a major part.

    Cutting NI in the last budget, rather than more capital investment, not least in housing, with multipliers was also a mistake. The Chancellor must do more to boost investment and training in the forthcoming budget. Tax cuts are really not the answer right now but I can't help feeling that is what we will get.

    Blair and Brown inherited an economy growing strongly throwing off extra cash for public spending in 1997, something of a golden inheritance thanks to Major and Clark. Starmer and Reeves are not going to be nearly so fortunate. When you see the economic outlook I don't really envy them. Its not surprising she has trimmed the green spend. There is no spare cash for anything.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Scott_xP said:

    @Keir_Starmer

    Rishi Sunak has failed to turn the corner on 14 years of Tory economic decline.

    Britain is hit by a recession and it’s working people who will pay the price.

    It's time for change. Only Labour will deliver it.

    Labour *can* deliver change.

    Whether they actually will- well, that's a very different question.
  • Options
    Good morning

    Terrible news for Sunak and an October- November election looks far more likely

    The question now is what happens in the conservative part next ?
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,121
    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    Councils have no money. But.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/this-is-a-disgrace-property-expert-lashes-out-as-home-office-builds-up-stock-of-16-000-houses-for-asylum-seekers/ar-BB1ihHiu?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=5d3cdc4d09c443ff8045b73a0becb1ac&ei=25

    “Winchester, Preston, North Norfolk, North Yorkshire, Waltham Forest, Portsmouth, Basingstoke are actually buying homes specifically for the purpose of housing asylum seekers”, he said.

    “It has also been very heavily clustered in places where property is cheap – Hull, Bradford and Teesside. It is potentially damaging to these places because it creates ghettos which are terrible for integration.”
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339


    Test
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Nohit and Jadeja put on a century partnership.

    The only good thing about that is this wicket looks flat. But I bet England, Ashwin and Bumrah between them will find a way to change that perception.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    The Lib Dems have already dubbed the economic slump “Rishi’s recession”. Politically this is a nightmare for a PM who promised to grow the economy as one of his five pledges.

    Worse, their only plan to grow the economy was mass immigration - see the Treasury report. An insane scheme in itself, given the long term negatives of migration, but I guess it was at least "a scheme" of sorts, like planning to lose weight by amputating a leg

    But in a stunning triumph, they haven't even done that. They chopped off the leg, and we didn't lose any weight, perhaps because all we can do now is hop around, waggling our stump, growing ever more obese
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181



    Test

    Not going well since Root dropped Nohit.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197

    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.

    I agree with all of that but there is the small matter of an election....
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339
    edited February 15
    GDP figures when announced are always revised so the initial figure is pointless
  • Options
    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347

    ....

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    Meanwhile back on Planet Earth...
    Fancy a bet, I reckon within a year the ONS will put figures out to show that we were not in recession?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    Councils have no money. But.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/this-is-a-disgrace-property-expert-lashes-out-as-home-office-builds-up-stock-of-16-000-houses-for-asylum-seekers/ar-BB1ihHiu?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=5d3cdc4d09c443ff8045b73a0becb1ac&ei=25

    “Winchester, Preston, North Norfolk, North Yorkshire, Waltham Forest, Portsmouth, Basingstoke are actually buying homes specifically for the purpose of housing asylum seekers”, he said.

    “It has also been very heavily clustered in places where property is cheap – Hull, Bradford and Teesside. It is potentially damaging to these places because it creates ghettos which are terrible for integration.”
    Lunacy. Pure, abject lunacy
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    As you well know from your travels, when push comes to shove the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life. Having lived in several continents at very different levels of socioeconomic development and cultural norms, the one thing I would change is the British tendency to self loathing and pessimism. But at least it leads to good sitcoms.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875

    Good morning

    Terrible news for Sunak and an October- November election looks far more likely

    Richi won't last that long
  • Options

    GDP figures when announced are always revised so the initial figure is pointless

    Not for betting purposes.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.

    2 things:

    1. I think we’re in danger of overcompensating for the upsurge in inflation in 2022. Long term with our declining demographics our biggest threat is Japan-style deflation. A couple of years of high wage and service sector inflation (which are largely domestic) but stable commodity and goods prices (which are globally influenced, albeit subject to FX rates) and we could have a happier population more inclined to spend.

    2. To avoid the FPT curse that you just suffered, how about the author of a new header gives a 10 minute warning of new thread coming? So we can save the big posts for the new one.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,126
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @BruceReuters

    Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇

    💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
    💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

    Tories have broken the economy, and the only solution proposed (by Truss) was to blow it up completely.

    At the end of the last thread there was the suggestion that wage restraint was needed. Restraint? The price of everything shot up and has stayed up. Wages are nowhere near enough to cover the increase. People have less to spend, cash circulation drops - 7 quarters of no growth.

    Labour will not have a magic wand. But the Tories just don't care about ordinary people, and many of them are too stupid to understand.
    The call for wage restraint came from the Bank of England - sorry but the fact people's mortgages are increasing by £x00 a month is why they are seeking a pay rise - so the reason for the lack of pay restraint rests on your previous decisions (or the delay in them) which means that interest rates are at 5.25% and not the 4.75% they would have been if you started the increases earlier.
    Interest rate hikes to stifle demand seems a very blunt instrument to contain inflation. Isn't there an inevitably of recession by adopting such an approach? Indeed, isn't (short term) recession, in some respects, the target?
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    As you well know from your travels, when push comes to shove the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life. Having lived in several continents at very different levels of socioeconomic development and cultural norms, the one thing I would change is the British tendency to self loathing and pessimism. But at least it leads to good sitcoms.
    No

    "the uk is one of the most pleasant, stable and prosperous places in the world to live out one’s life."

    I no longer believe this to be true
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    Shocking news from the superb owl
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    I have never understood the lionisation of the Suffragettes:

    1) They were terrorists, and actually pretty nasty ones including making some attempts to kill people (fortunately very inept ones, but still);

    2) They were almost all very wealthy women and didn't like poor people;

    3) Despite claims to the contrary, they not only failed but actually made it somewhat less likely that women would get the vote.

    Why are the Suffragists, whose long and patient campaign the Pankhursts came within an ace of wrecking altogether, ignored and a bunch of stupid posh women who did a great deal of damage elevated instead?

    Baffles me.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Who could have foreseen that following the Faragist dream and betting the house on the skilful leadership of Boris, Truss and Sunak would lead to bad things?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    The MRP in the header appears to be Electoral Calculus so, as ever, slightly less plausible than Oliver Reed playing Pin The Tail On The Donkey on a constituency map of the UK.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197

    ....

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    Meanwhile back on Planet Earth...
    Fancy a bet, I reckon within a year the ONS will put figures out to show that we were not in recession?
    Q3 at -0.1% looks highly vulnerable to revision. Q4 at -0.3% less so. We will probably find that they got construction wrong yet again. But these are deckchairs on the Titanic. A few tenths either way does not change the underlying performance which is very poor.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    Councils have no money. But.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/this-is-a-disgrace-property-expert-lashes-out-as-home-office-builds-up-stock-of-16-000-houses-for-asylum-seekers/ar-BB1ihHiu?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=5d3cdc4d09c443ff8045b73a0becb1ac&ei=25

    “Winchester, Preston, North Norfolk, North Yorkshire, Waltham Forest, Portsmouth, Basingstoke are actually buying homes specifically for the purpose of housing asylum seekers”, he said.

    “It has also been very heavily clustered in places where property is cheap – Hull, Bradford and Teesside. It is potentially damaging to these places because it creates ghettos which are terrible for integration.”
    If we processed their claims quicker, they would either be deported or granted asylum. If granted asylum, they are then allowed to work, be productive, pay taxes, settle down and integrate into the community, and afford their own housing.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    IanB2 said:

    Shocking news from the superb owl

    Do you mean the SuperBowl?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Well, I was right about inflation but wrong about the recession.

    2023 was a truly abysmal year for growth but that is hardly surprising given the extraordinary costs incurred in relation to energy costs and commodity costs. Such shocks previously have produced serious recessions. The prolonged period of real wage cuts leading into 2023 and persisting until Q3 was also a factor. I thought that the government's extraordinary expenditure in subsidising fuel bills would be enough to offset it but it wasn't quite.

    What we need is growth driven by investment. The trimming of capital expenditure, such as HS2, to maintain current expenditure is a mistake. The difference between what Biden has managed in the US and we have managed is marked and capital spending is a major part.

    Cutting NI in the last budget, rather than more capital investment, not least in housing, with multipliers was also a mistake. The Chancellor must do more to boost investment and training in the forthcoming budget. Tax cuts are really not the answer right now but I can't help feeling that is what we will get.

    Blair and Brown inherited an economy growing strongly throwing off extra cash for public spending in 1997, something of a golden inheritance thanks to Major and Clark. Starmer and Reeves are not going to be nearly so fortunate. When you see the economic outlook I don't really envy them. Its not surprising she has trimmed the green spend. There is no spare cash for anything.

    Yes, the chronic lack of investment is the underlying problem - and has been since 2008. Whilst there is 'no money left', we can't afford *not* to invest money, because infrastructure and services are in such a por state of repair.

    The next government will be Bad News for middle-management spivs shuffling contracts around, and Good News for construction firms and people who do stuff. Because we won't have a choice.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @UKLabour

    This is Rishi's recession and it’s working people who will pay the price.


  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited February 15
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    I have never understood the lionisation of the Suffragettes:

    1) They were terrorists, and actually pretty nasty ones including making some attempts to kill people (fortunately very inept ones, but still);

    2) They were almost all very wealthy women and didn't like poor people;

    3) Despite claims to the contrary, they not only failed but actually made it somewhat less likely that women would get the vote.

    Why are the Suffragists, whose long and patient campaign the Pankhursts came within an ace of wrecking altogether, ignored and a bunch of stupid posh women who did a great deal of damage elevated instead?

    Baffles me.
    Any bird who wants to chain herself to *my* railings and 'suffer-a-jet movement' gets my vote!"
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    Probably why “stick to the plan” line was always idiotic

    Guess we need more tax cuts now?!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197

    Good morning

    Terrible news for Sunak and an October- November election looks far more likely

    The question now is what happens in the conservative part next ?

    November 14th looks a good date, just saying.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    Good morning

    Terrible news for Sunak and an October- November election looks far more likely

    Richi won't last that long
    Why did you remove my further comment which specifically said the question is what happens in the conservative party next

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    To compensate for anti-woke sensitivities they could designate a few more: the Vera Lynn line, the Morrissey line, the Enoch Powell line, perhaps the Farage line (after all they named the Elizabeth line during her lifetime).
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    I have never understood the lionisation of the Suffragettes:

    1) They were terrorists, and actually pretty nasty ones including making some attempts to kill people (fortunately very inept ones, but still);

    2) They were almost all very wealthy women and didn't like poor people;

    3) Despite claims to the contrary, they not only failed but actually made it somewhat less likely that women would get the vote.

    Why are the Suffragists, whose long and patient campaign the Pankhursts came within an ace of wrecking altogether, ignored and a bunch of stupid posh women who did a great deal of damage elevated instead?

    Baffles me.
    I entirely agree with this, but I think this culture war has long been lost.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197

    DavidL said:

    Well, I was right about inflation but wrong about the recession.

    2023 was a truly abysmal year for growth but that is hardly surprising given the extraordinary costs incurred in relation to energy costs and commodity costs. Such shocks previously have produced serious recessions. The prolonged period of real wage cuts leading into 2023 and persisting until Q3 was also a factor. I thought that the government's extraordinary expenditure in subsidising fuel bills would be enough to offset it but it wasn't quite.

    What we need is growth driven by investment. The trimming of capital expenditure, such as HS2, to maintain current expenditure is a mistake. The difference between what Biden has managed in the US and we have managed is marked and capital spending is a major part.

    Cutting NI in the last budget, rather than more capital investment, not least in housing, with multipliers was also a mistake. The Chancellor must do more to boost investment and training in the forthcoming budget. Tax cuts are really not the answer right now but I can't help feeling that is what we will get.

    Blair and Brown inherited an economy growing strongly throwing off extra cash for public spending in 1997, something of a golden inheritance thanks to Major and Clark. Starmer and Reeves are not going to be nearly so fortunate. When you see the economic outlook I don't really envy them. Its not surprising she has trimmed the green spend. There is no spare cash for anything.

    Yes, the chronic lack of investment is the underlying problem - and has been since 2008. Whilst there is 'no money left', we can't afford *not* to invest money, because infrastructure and services are in such a por state of repair.

    The next government will be Bad News for middle-management spivs shuffling contracts around, and Good News for construction firms and people who do stuff. Because we won't have a choice.
    But those middle management spivs, particularly in the public sector, are Labour's core vote.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @KevinASchofield

    Labour spokesperson: "Jeremy Hunt’s comments are as insulting as they are out of touch. The Conservatives’ failure to take any responsibility for Rishi’s recession show why we need an election.”
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    Everything is awesome. We’ve never had it so good. We should be grateful to Rishi. 🤡
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    Yes, the Tories should go round telling the country 'You've never had it so good.'
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,477
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    I have never understood the lionisation of the Suffragettes:

    1) They were terrorists, and actually pretty nasty ones including making some attempts to kill people (fortunately very inept ones, but still);

    2) They were almost all very wealthy women and didn't like poor people;

    3) Despite claims to the contrary, they not only failed but actually made it somewhat less likely that women would get the vote.

    Why are the Suffragists, whose long and patient campaign the Pankhursts came within an ace of wrecking altogether, ignored and a bunch of stupid posh women who did a great deal of damage elevated instead?

    Baffles me.
    I blame Mary Poppins.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    TimS said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    To compensate for anti-woke sensitivities they could designate a few more: the Vera Lynn line, the Morrissey line, the Enoch Powell line, perhaps the Farage line (after all they named the Elizabeth line during her lifetime).
    You Khan't be serious?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    You have the right assessment of the problem, with the wrong cause. Lets take a step back from the data and ask why we import "trillions" of migrants? What do they do in our economy?

    Largely we can stick them into two buckets. The smaller group do the skilled jobs we decided not to train our own people to do. Would we be better to train more doctors and nurses than raid health systems of poorer countries? Yes - but we chose not to pay for it.

    The larger group do all the jobs we don't want to do. Work in factories, in warehouses, in care homes. Jobs we need but again aren't prepared to pay more for.

    Lets take one strand of the latter. Most of the food we eat relies on migrant labour. In manufacturing, processing, packing and logistics. Where the companies who do these things largely make unhealthy low margins to keep the price of food in the UK relatively low compared to other places.

    Why do we need food so cheap? Because despite right wing attacks our welfare system is cheap as fuck. Compare social security payments here to anywhere else in western Europe. And not just welfare - the cost of living is off the chart crazy. When food prices rise we all squeal for real reasons.

    In essence mate, migrant labour is the cheap labour pool imported to keep wages down for business profits, something embedded in the 80s and never challenged since.

    I am happy to start unravelling this position, but we cannot just say "foreigners go home" and replace them with nobody. We need to make these jobs pay a living wage. And you - amongst many on the right - object to that. So we get migrants...
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    To compensate for anti-woke sensitivities they could designate a few more: the Vera Lynn line, the Morrissey line, the Enoch Powell line, perhaps the Farage line (after all they named the Elizabeth line during her lifetime).
    You Khan't be serious?
    I'm sure we can get a small Hall of puns out of London.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,477
    Dura doesn't seem to have noticed that his LRB article also agrees with the banderites.

    ...These and other obstacles to a truce could be swept away. Putin could recognise Zelensky and the rump Ukraine, merely by denying that he hadn’t; he could limit ‘denazification’ to a demand that Ukraine reassess its official tolerance of the minority cult of actual-Nazi-tainted historical figures like Stepan Bandera; and get his tame parliament to re-tweak the constitution using different boundaries. But a settlement would mean drawing a line between his conquests so far and his hopes to dominate the whole of Ukraine by some mixture of subjugation and international consent. There is no hint that he’s ready to do this...

    But Russian imperialists are used to seeing contradiction as dialectic, I guess.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197
    TimS said:

    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.

    2 things:

    1. I think we’re in danger of overcompensating for the upsurge in inflation in 2022. Long term with our declining demographics our biggest threat is Japan-style deflation. A couple of years of high wage and service sector inflation (which are largely domestic) but stable commodity and goods prices (which are globally influenced, albeit subject to FX rates) and we could have a happier population more inclined to spend.

    2. To avoid the FPT curse that you just suffered, how about the author of a new header gives a 10 minute warning of new thread coming? So we can save the big posts for the new one.
    On point 1, I would gently point out the trade deficit (which I accept is an obsession of mine) is already terrible. We simply cannot afford to boost consumption, we need to boost investment and productivity so what we produce and what we consume are in better alignment. That means consumers will have to tighten their belts a little.
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    Yes, the Tories should go round telling the country 'You've never had it so good.'
    Thing is, some people, possibly quite a lot of people, are doing well. That's always the way in recessions.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited February 15
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, in "probably going to annoy all the right people" news, London Overground is getting a woke makeover;

    Last August, Transport for London (TfL) announced it wanted to give the routes distinct identities to make it easier for passengers to navigate the network.

    The services will become known as the Lioness line; the Mildmay line; the Windrush line; the Weaver line; the Suffragette line; and the Liberty line.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68296483.amp

    Makes sense practically, and Liberty for the Romford-Upminster line is neat. But I can hear blood vessels bursting form here.

    I have never understood the lionisation of the Suffragettes:

    1) They were terrorists, and actually pretty nasty ones including making some attempts to kill people (fortunately very inept ones, but still);

    2) They were almost all very wealthy women and didn't like poor people;

    3) Despite claims to the contrary, they not only failed but actually made it somewhat less likely that women would get the vote.

    Why are the Suffragists, whose long and patient campaign the Pankhursts came within an ace of wrecking altogether, ignored and a bunch of stupid posh women who did a great deal of damage elevated instead?

    Baffles me.
    I blame Mary Poppins.
    Actually I think it's probably the Schools History Project of the 1970s, which took a very Marxist view of things. Emmerline and Christabel had links with Labour (and Sylvia actually was a socialist, and became disillusioned with the WSPU because it only cared about votes and not a lot of other important issues e.g. the laws on venereal disease) while the Suffragists were more centrist and many of them voted Tory when they finally got the vote.

    So school history tells that Suffragettes got the vote for women, although it took a war and that they were given the vote afterwards 'as a prize.' Because we can't have Tory voters getting nice things for underprivileged groups.

    It's bullshit but it's gone mainstream for fifty years so as @bondegezou says it's a war that's been lost.

    (As an aside, most people forget it was actually Conservative votes that passed votes for women through the Commons - although there were some opponents, Labour and the Liberals were both just as split on the issue. That even includes several historians, one of whom really got ratty with me when I pointed out a Tory government was in power in 1928.)
  • Options
    Good to see more and more people now talking about GDP per capita. It is the only figure that is relevant and has been ignored far too long.

    The Tories currently deserve a Canada 1993 style election result so I wouldn't rule out the MRP.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,197
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Shocking news from the superb owl

    Do you mean the SuperBowl?
    I was thinking well at least someone got one of Ed Miliband's owls. Lucky them.
  • Options
    .
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    As I said, pre thread, to achieve basically zero growth while importing trillions of migrants is not just remarkable, it is insane, has anyone managed it before outside an invasion?

    Japan has been stagnant for years, but they have managed to maintain a clean, orderly, crime free, recognisably Japanese country. We have trashed the UK, our drains are backed up, no one can get a dentist, the streets are full of raging anti-Semites, and still we go nowhere in economic capacity. How is that even do-able?

    The country is becoming a squat, where anyone can turn up, and shit in the corner. I guess we can console ourselves that eventually it will get so bad no one will want to come, and the Rwandans will send their asylum seekers to Newent and Wick as a deterrent

    Councils have no money. But.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/this-is-a-disgrace-property-expert-lashes-out-as-home-office-builds-up-stock-of-16-000-houses-for-asylum-seekers/ar-BB1ihHiu?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=5d3cdc4d09c443ff8045b73a0becb1ac&ei=25

    “Winchester, Preston, North Norfolk, North Yorkshire, Waltham Forest, Portsmouth, Basingstoke are actually buying homes specifically for the purpose of housing asylum seekers”, he said.

    “It has also been very heavily clustered in places where property is cheap – Hull, Bradford and Teesside. It is potentially damaging to these places because it creates ghettos which are terrible for integration.”
    Hold on a minute. The kind of houses being allocated to asylum seekers in places like Teesside are *already* a ghetto. Clusters of them in parts of north Thornaby where nobody wanted to live due to runaway crime and poverty. When I lived within the City of Sunderland the refugees went into "murder mile" in Hendon. In houses nobody with a brain wanted.

    This is the housing stock they are buying up. For a fiver.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,145
    This was always going to happen - how else do you squeeze inflation out of the economy except by stopping growth? And, as people also said a long time ago, because the Bank of England was slow to recognise the danger of inflation, they were likely to overdo things. And so it has come to pass.

    It's good to see people pay more attention to the GDP per capita figures, but a shame that they're so awful.
  • Options

    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.

    How do you define wage inflation as being "too high"?

    Real wage growth should be happening and when the labour market is tight (at 3.8% unemployment) then real wage growth should be going strong to encourage afford better living standards, while eliminating less efficient jobs that demand labour.

    That's simply supply and demand working as it should, if we have strong wage growth at a time of limited unemployment.
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    Yes, the Tories should go round telling the country 'You've never had it so good.'
    Thing is, some people, possibly quite a lot of people, are doing well. That's always the way in recessions.
    Indeed.

    ***Waves from my Ivory Tower***
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 776
    edited February 15

    FPT, since I took time to write it.

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.

    Good points but...

    1) Inflation has been running at well below 2% pa on a month-on-month basis for two thirds of a year.

    2) Services and wage inflation have a lag to headline inflation rates. If you wait for them to get down to target you could be in deflation for headline inflation.

    3) Energy (gas) prices will continue to fall from here, as the price cap catches up with market prices that have gone back to close to pre-Ukraine levels. That will further push inflation down.

    4) Even if we're generous and assume inflation is running at 2% pa,rather than below, that means we have positive real rates of +3% for an economy in recession (or close to). That seems unnecessarily restrictive.

    So I think we should commence cuts this spring, albeit there's probably a limit to how aggressive we can be with cuts given the US economy is much stronger and so may go slower (and don't want FX moves to lead to imported inflation).

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    Has BigJohn asked SKS fans to explain this poll?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    Yes, the Tories should go round telling the country 'You've never had it so good.'
    Thing is, some people, possibly quite a lot of people, are doing well. That's always the way in recessions.
    Indeed.

    ***Waves from my Ivory Tower***
    Don't you mean, *waves the latest iPhone from the ivory tower while wearing $1000 dollar shoes, and typing on the latest MacBook?*

    Or did your legendary modesty lead you to tone it down a bit?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,477
    Question for PB nerds; is this really 'exciting' ?

    Meta’s LLM for software testing work is super exciting.

    This paper describes Meta’s TestGen-LLM tool, which uses LLMs to automatically improve existing human-written tests. TestGen-LLM verifies that its generated test classes successfully clear a set of filters that assure measurable improvement over the original test suite, thereby eliminating problems due to LLM hallucination. We describe the deployment of TestGen-LLM at Meta test-a-thons for the Instagram and Facebook platforms. In an evaluation on Reels and Stories products for Instagram, 75% of TestGen-LLM’s test cases built correctly, 57% passed reliably, and 25% increased coverage. During Meta’s Instagram and Facebook test-a-thons, it improved 11.5% of all classes to which it was applied, with 73% of its recommendations being accepted for production deployment by Meta software engineers. We believe this is the first report on industrial scale deployment of LLM-generated code backed by such assurances of code improvement.

    https://twitter.com/nathanbenaich/status/1758036247115608317
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @EdConwaySky

    When people ask themselves, as they often do ahead of an election: do they feel better off than they were a year or two ago?
    …they now have a statistical answer: No.
    GDP per head in Q4 2023 was lower than in Q4 2022 or Q4 2021.
    That’s grim. Grimmer than headline GDP suggests.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    edited February 15

    Good to see more and more people now talking about GDP per capita. It is the only figure that is relevant and has been ignored far too long.

    The Tories currently deserve a Canada 1993 style election result so I wouldn't rule out the MRP.

    The only reason the GDP figures aren’t even worse is because of immigration . Low productivity is the big problem in the UK .

    As you know I’m pro immigration but there’s no denying that successive governments have covered up for a lack of infrastructure spending and investing in skills by using immigration to pad the GDP figures .

    You’re right to highlight GDP per capita because that’s the figure which tells the true story .
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,145

    Jonathan said:

    Why does anyone believe anything the ONS puts out?
    They are headline seekers.
    These figures will be revised up without a big press realease in a years time.

    I guess in your bubble Britain is booming. The energy and optimism is palpable. A young country, alive with possibilities driving confidently towards the future inspired by Sunak’s leadership.
    Full employment, discretionary spending still seems high. When I left school in 1984 there were no jobs, now if you want a job you can have one. Do you think Boys from the Blackstuff could be made now. If you are a bricklayet you will be on £300 per day, no bother.
    The mystery is, then, why aren't the kids on housing estates training to be bricklayerrs?

    Also, Britain seems to have reached full employment by, for example, replacing x high-paying export-earning jobs in pharmaceuticals production, with 2x low-paying imports-distributing jobs in warehouses. That seems to be why there is full employment, but awful productivity figures, awful GDP figures, awful trade figures, etc.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,477
    The Tory house rag joins Leon on the doorstep of despair.

    For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished
    https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/1757870203571200474
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    DavidL said:

    Well, I was right about inflation but wrong about the recession.

    2023 was a truly abysmal year for growth but that is hardly surprising given the extraordinary costs incurred in relation to energy costs and commodity costs. Such shocks previously have produced serious recessions. The prolonged period of real wage cuts leading into 2023 and persisting until Q3 was also a factor. I thought that the government's extraordinary expenditure in subsidising fuel bills would be enough to offset it but it wasn't quite.

    What we need is growth driven by investment. The trimming of capital expenditure, such as HS2, to maintain current expenditure is a mistake. The difference between what Biden has managed in the US and we have managed is marked and capital spending is a major part.

    Cutting NI in the last budget, rather than more capital investment, not least in housing, with multipliers was also a mistake. The Chancellor must do more to boost investment and training in the forthcoming budget. Tax cuts are really not the answer right now but I can't help feeling that is what we will get.

    Blair and Brown inherited an economy growing strongly throwing off extra cash for public spending in 1997, something of a golden inheritance thanks to Major and Clark. Starmer and Reeves are not going to be nearly so fortunate. When you see the economic outlook I don't really envy them. Its not surprising she has trimmed the green spend. There is no spare cash for anything.

    The golden inheritance was not "thanks to Major and Clark". It followed the complete collapse of the Conservative government's economic policy and our forced departure from the ERM. We cannot pretend this was planned.
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    .
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well, I was right about inflation but wrong about the recession.

    2023 was a truly abysmal year for growth but that is hardly surprising given the extraordinary costs incurred in relation to energy costs and commodity costs. Such shocks previously have produced serious recessions. The prolonged period of real wage cuts leading into 2023 and persisting until Q3 was also a factor. I thought that the government's extraordinary expenditure in subsidising fuel bills would be enough to offset it but it wasn't quite.

    What we need is growth driven by investment. The trimming of capital expenditure, such as HS2, to maintain current expenditure is a mistake. The difference between what Biden has managed in the US and we have managed is marked and capital spending is a major part.

    Cutting NI in the last budget, rather than more capital investment, not least in housing, with multipliers was also a mistake. The Chancellor must do more to boost investment and training in the forthcoming budget. Tax cuts are really not the answer right now but I can't help feeling that is what we will get.

    Blair and Brown inherited an economy growing strongly throwing off extra cash for public spending in 1997, something of a golden inheritance thanks to Major and Clark. Starmer and Reeves are not going to be nearly so fortunate. When you see the economic outlook I don't really envy them. Its not surprising she has trimmed the green spend. There is no spare cash for anything.

    Yes, the chronic lack of investment is the underlying problem - and has been since 2008. Whilst there is 'no money left', we can't afford *not* to invest money, because infrastructure and services are in such a por state of repair.

    The next government will be Bad News for middle-management spivs shuffling contracts around, and Good News for construction firms and people who do stuff. Because we won't have a choice.
    But those middle management spivs, particularly in the public sector, are Labour's core vote.
    We need a serious overhaul to remove the false markets in health and education, that is true. But most of the flab in the public sector is contracted out services and the management of them.

    If - as an example - we bring an urgent care service back into the NHS you get the same facility and the same staff providing the same service. But you don't pay another company a load of admin staff to administer it, you don't need NHS-paid contract managers and lawyers etc etc etc.

    This is how we pay record amounts for an NHS where front line healthcare is starved of cash. All the money is being syphoned away.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339

    GDP figures when announced are always revised so the initial figure is pointless

    Not for betting purposes.
    Fair point but my point stands nevertheless and btw it won't do Rishi any good.
This discussion has been closed.