Are the Tories set to lose ALL of their Welsh Seats? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw1 -
Hmmm.Penddu2 said:
You are right - highest A road.. But anyone travelling the M4 near Sarn will see that the area is not cycle friendly.ydoethur said:
That isn't the highest road in Wales, in fact it's about fifth although I think it's the highest A-road. I've actually driven over it several times but I didn't realise it was in Bridgend PA. I was thinking of the town itself which as I recall is if not flat certainly less hilly than Merthyr.Penddu2 said:
You have clearly never been to Bridgend. Includes the highest road in Wales (The Bwlch) - and even the flattish bits are very bumpy and definitely not cycle friendly.ydoethur said:
By car or on foot?Eabhal said:
I shall get back to you!ydoethur said:
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?Eabhal said:Finally, an opportunity:
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Compared to Route 8 between Talybont and Llandecwyn it's very cycle friendly.
Mind you, that is a low bar.
But more pertinently, I'd still say it's cycle friendly compared to the northern end of the Valleys.0 -
In the appeal court decision most of the charge was redacted leaving the bits where he penetrated an 11 year old with his fingers and penis. God knows what the rest of the charge said but I have never seen that in a reported case before. Monster doesn't come close to describing him.Cyclefree said:Incidentally @FF43 raised the Ghey case by saying that no-one had commented on it despite talking about trans issues. Not sure what point he is trying to make.
But it is not the only recent trans criminal court case which has passed unnoticed on here. The Andrew Miller case in Scotland has also been little remarked on here. It too is awful. It too raises difficult questions. The judge's sentencing remarks with details of the offences and Andrew Miller's response to his crimes are very disturbing. You can read them here - https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2023/10/18/hma-v-andrew-miller.
He wanted, reportedly, to retrain as a social worker, though it is hard to imagine anyone less suitable to perform such a role. Fortunately, his appeal against his long sentence was rejected. Good.0 -
A shame. He was very strong on the rule of law. One of the few Tory MPs left who understood its importance and was prepared to call out his own government when it attacked it.HYUFD said:Sir Bob Neill to stand down after his wife suffered a stroke
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-681903902 -
No idea. Wokeness? Who knowsFrankBooth said:
Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It can’t be the law protecting minors because detectives HAVE released images of these boisterous lads
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We can't put him in a cannon. His manly muscular frame will not fit in the breech. They'll have to use one of those long tampy-down poles. Keep ramming it up his bottom until he fits in the breech, then add the propellant, close the breech, stand back, pull the trigger. He should impact in Melitopol in a few minutes, and such weapons-grade lard should clear the ground of many Russians. A noble death, I think you'd agree.Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps I've not been paying attention but I see hardly anything now about the foreign legions helping to shore up the Uke front lines. Time for someone to make a magnificent gesture..Leon said:Also, lack of men is a REAL issue for the Ukes
“Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.”
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1753470321183646021?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
We can give them all the shells in the world, but if they don’t have troops to fire them…
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Many, many years ago a school friend and I cycled from Southend to Plynlimon (we did walk the last bit), then cycled all the way to Chepstow, keeping as close to the River Wye as possible. We then cycled home. Took us most of the two week Easter holiday.ydoethur said:
Hmmm.Penddu2 said:
You are right - highest A road.. But anyone travelling the M4 near Sarn will see that the area is not cycle friendly.ydoethur said:
That isn't the highest road in Wales, in fact it's about fifth although I think it's the highest A-road. I've actually driven over it several times but I didn't realise it was in Bridgend PA. I was thinking of the town itself which as I recall is if not flat certainly less hilly than Merthyr.Penddu2 said:
You have clearly never been to Bridgend. Includes the highest road in Wales (The Bwlch) - and even the flattish bits are very bumpy and definitely not cycle friendly.ydoethur said:
By car or on foot?Eabhal said:
I shall get back to you!ydoethur said:
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?Eabhal said:Finally, an opportunity:
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Compared to Route 8 between Talybont and Llandecwyn it's very cycle friendly.
Mind you, that is a low bar.
But more pertinently, I'd still say it's cycle friendly compared to the northern end of the Valleys.
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I hope the courts don’t go too hard on the Nottingham machete lads - it’s just boyish horseplay, kind of thing we see every day. And a tough sentence might menace their future careers in the upper echelons of law or medicine0
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No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Brianna. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen people like her as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the same wayCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.0 -
...
I don't normally seek out such stories, so the fact that I am aware of Amy George suggests it was discussed both on here and in the wider media. As I recall the coverage was quite rightly not favourable towards Miller/George.Cyclefree said:Incidentally @FF43 raised the Ghey case by saying that no-one had commented on it despite talking about trans issues. Not sure what point he is trying to make.
But it is not the only recent trans criminal court case which has passed unnoticed on here. The Andrew Miller case in Scotland has also been little remarked on here. It too is awful. It too raises difficult questions. The judge's sentencing remarks with details of the offences and Andrew Miller's response to his crimes are very disturbing. You can read them here - https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2023/10/18/hma-v-andrew-miller.
He wanted, reportedly, to retrain as a social worker, though it is hard to imagine anyone less suitable to perform such a role. Fortunately, his appeal against his long sentence was rejected. Good.0 -
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it0 -
Must be bloody cold in Nottingham if you have to wear a hat, a hoodie and an outer hood in the middle of the day. I've only been there for Test matches.Leon said:
No idea. Wokeness? Who knowsFrankBooth said:
Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It can’t be the law protecting minors because detectives HAVE released images of these boisterous lads0 -
I guess “being bare headed and instantly identifiable” wasn’t on the To Do list, just behind “have massive fight with machetes in broad daylight in central Nottingham”Alphabet_Soup said:
Must be bloody cold in Nottingham if you have to wear a hat, a hoodie and an outer hood in the middle of the day. I've only been there for Test matches.Leon said:
No idea. Wokeness? Who knowsFrankBooth said:
Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It can’t be the law protecting minors because detectives HAVE released images of these boisterous lads0 -
"...and when exactly were these "Test matches", sir? Any witnesses to this? Just for our records, you understand..."Alphabet_Soup said:
Must be bloody cold in Nottingham if you have to wear a hat, a hoodie and an outer hood in the middle of the day. I've only been there for Test matches.Leon said:
No idea. Wokeness? Who knowsFrankBooth said:
Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It can’t be the law protecting minors because detectives HAVE released images of these boisterous lads0 -
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine / republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?Stonemason said:Interesting tweet here.
Challenge:
Find me another country in Europe that have a larger population of males that are overweight, walking around with a vape and energy drink in hand, only care about football and accumulators and are full of stress, aggression and hate than the UK right now.
Want to see how social programming truly works?
Just look at the UK and what's happened to it.
Look at how sick and run down most towns and people are.
Find me another country in Europe where it's glaringly obvious more so than the UK right now.........
8:15 AM · Feb 1, 2024
https://x.com/ajrobertsshow/status/1752968950135066673?s=20
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7,215
Views0 -
“I is a roadman, innit”Leon said:
No idea. Wokeness? Who knowsFrankBooth said:
Why would they have blurred the faces?Leon said:
Farage should maybe look for a seat in NottinghamMoonRabbit said:
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.MoonRabbit said:
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.stodge said:
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.Ghedebrav said:
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.AverageNinja said:What has Rishi got left to turn the dial?
I note Labour is now mostly 20+ points ahead.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It can’t be the law protecting minors because detectives HAVE released images of these boisterous lads0 -
Isn’t it about time that someone told all these transitory jobbing trolls that this site already has its own permanent in-house troll?4
-
...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?1 -
Completely soberMexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
I have genuinely wondered if alcohol actually represses my naturally punchy online persona-1 -
A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.2 -
I'm content to be emotional about it. 3 main reasons. 1. Fear of the practical consequences. He and the hard right are using each other to get what they want. 2. His baleful impact (globally) as a role model. It would give the worst aspects of human nature and those who revel in it a boost. 3. The rank injustice of it.Leon said:
If it’s any reassurance I agree with youkinabalu said:
Yes indeed. We could certainly be wrong. It's a minority view after all. Although on that wishcasting point I'm fairly sure I'm not. The bias I have to be wary of in my betting is my tendency to overstate the chances of something I dread (or understate the chances of something I really want). The opposite of wishcasting.Benpointer said:
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.kinabalu said:
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.MoonRabbit said:
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.kinabalu said:
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.MoonRabbit said:
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.Nigelb said:Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message
“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/trump-and-his-allies-adjust-their-messaging-on-the-economy-as-it-steadily-improves-00139447
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
And I am much less emotional about this than you. ie I don’t DREAD a Trump presidency, he wouldn’t end the world, I just think he’d be bad news at a vulnerable moment
The economy is coming good at just the right moment for Biden. Another year of solid growth, low inflation, high employment, should see him home
Two caveats
1. A black swan (of course). Another war? Maybe Iran? Could change everything
2. Immigration. The border is totally out of control, can Trump weaponise that?
Number 2 is underappreciated imo. There'll be huge numbers of nasty people all over the world feeling validated and empowered the day after a Donald Trump election win in the US. And there'll be even huger numbers of people with a nasty side (ie most people) now less inclined to suppress that part of themselves in favour of their better nature.
And number 3 is never mentioned but it ought to be imo. This guy lost last time, wouldn't accept it, tried to stay in power regardless, refused to cooperate with a transition, instead spread malicious lies about a rigged election and got almost half the country believing that. He trashed the place. So to see him returning in triumph four years later? No. Just simply wrong. A vomit inducing miscarriage of justice on the grandest scale. For me only Putin winning in Ukraine is in the same ballpark.5 -
The measure of what a bell end Trump is, is that people now consider George W Bush as an Elder Statesman. And Dan Quayle is the Constitutional Statesman who Saved The Republic.kinabalu said:
I'm content to be emotional about it. 3 main reasons. 1. Fear of the practical consequences. He and the hard right are using each other to get what they want. 2. His baleful impact (globally) as a role model. It would give the worst aspects of human nature and those who revel in it a boost. 3. The rank injustice of it.Leon said:
If it’s any reassurance I agree with youkinabalu said:
Yes indeed. We could certainly be wrong. It's a minority view after all. Although on that wishcasting point I'm fairly sure I'm not. The bias I have to be wary of in my betting is my tendency to overstate the chances of something I dread (or understate the chances of something I really want). The opposite of wishcasting.Benpointer said:
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.kinabalu said:
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.MoonRabbit said:
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.kinabalu said:
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.MoonRabbit said:
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.Nigelb said:Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message
“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/trump-and-his-allies-adjust-their-messaging-on-the-economy-as-it-steadily-improves-00139447
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
And I am much less emotional about this than you. ie I don’t DREAD a Trump presidency, he wouldn’t end the world, I just think he’d be bad news at a vulnerable moment
The economy is coming good at just the right moment for Biden. Another year of solid growth, low inflation, high employment, should see him home
Two caveats
1. A black swan (of course). Another war? Maybe Iran? Could change everything
2. Immigration. The border is totally out of control, can Trump weaponise that?
Number 2 is underappreciated imo. There'll be huge numbers of nasty people all over the world feeling validated and empowered the day after a Donald Trump election win in the US. And there'll be even huger numbers of people with a nasty side (ie most people) now less inclined to suppress that part of themselves in favour of their better nature.
And number 3 is never mentioned but it ought to be imo. This guy lost last time, wouldn't accept it, tried to stay in power regardless, refused to cooperate with a transition, instead spread malicious lies about a rigged election and got almost half the country believing that. He trashed the place. So to see him returning in triumph four years later? No. Just simply wrong. A vomit inducing miscarriage of justice on the grandest scale. For me only Putin winning in Ukraine is in the same ballpark.
WTAF?3 -
I have a horrible feeling this is Italy’s chance to beat us
Borthwick is an idiot0 -
Day 3. And my wife was pissing herself laughing last night when she pointed out I have chosen February in a leap year.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?1 -
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.2 -
I’m trying to work my magicIanB2 said:
Excellent stuff!Leon said:I have a horrible feeling this is Italy’s chance to beat us
Borthwick is an idiot
Leondamus has spoken, England is nailed on to win handsomely, now....
However I genuinely fear we could lose this. So many good players missing. Smith and Arundel etc
Where’s the spark of genius gonna come from?0 -
That's fine; it only works if you genuinely mean it.Leon said:
I’m trying to work my magicIanB2 said:
Excellent stuff!Leon said:I have a horrible feeling this is Italy’s chance to beat us
Borthwick is an idiot
Leondamus has spoken, England is nailed on to win handsomely, now....
However I genuinely fear we could lose this. So many good players missing. Smith and Arundel etc
Where’s the spark of genius gonna come from?0 -
Try to Italy. Much the better side. So far.Leon said:
I’m trying to work my magicIanB2 said:
Excellent stuff!Leon said:I have a horrible feeling this is Italy’s chance to beat us
Borthwick is an idiot
Leondamus has spoken, England is nailed on to win handsomely, now....
However I genuinely fear we could lose this. So many good players missing. Smith and Arundel etc
Where’s the spark of genius gonna come from?0 -
Told you. Italy to win:
24 - 170 -
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.0 -
Your own view on other abuse scandals was to blame the victims.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.1 -
Getting ratty on here this afternoon.
Off to read a nice book about steam locomotive testing stations or something pleasant like that.2 -
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.4 -
My view is it is not for me, a man, to tell women what to think. You have a different view. Women, be quiet, rogerdamus is mansplaining feminism to you.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.1 -
Good spot. I said 3 things but there's plenty more including that. He's shifted the goalposts on what's good, bad and ugly. So now what was appalling and unacceptable looks ok because "well it's not Trump", and what was previously just about ok looks excellent, and what used to be genuinely admirable appears angelic and therefore off the table in this world.Malmesbury said:
The measure of what a bell end Trump is, is that people now consider George W Bush as an Elder Statesman. And Dan Quayle is the Constitutional Statesman who Saved The Republic.kinabalu said:
I'm content to be emotional about it. 3 main reasons. 1. Fear of the practical consequences. He and the hard right are using each other to get what they want. 2. His baleful impact (globally) as a role model. It would give the worst aspects of human nature and those who revel in it a boost. 3. The rank injustice of it.Leon said:
If it’s any reassurance I agree with youkinabalu said:
Yes indeed. We could certainly be wrong. It's a minority view after all. Although on that wishcasting point I'm fairly sure I'm not. The bias I have to be wary of in my betting is my tendency to overstate the chances of something I dread (or understate the chances of something I really want). The opposite of wishcasting.Benpointer said:
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.kinabalu said:
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.MoonRabbit said:
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.kinabalu said:
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.MoonRabbit said:
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.Nigelb said:Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message
“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/trump-and-his-allies-adjust-their-messaging-on-the-economy-as-it-steadily-improves-00139447
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
And I am much less emotional about this than you. ie I don’t DREAD a Trump presidency, he wouldn’t end the world, I just think he’d be bad news at a vulnerable moment
The economy is coming good at just the right moment for Biden. Another year of solid growth, low inflation, high employment, should see him home
Two caveats
1. A black swan (of course). Another war? Maybe Iran? Could change everything
2. Immigration. The border is totally out of control, can Trump weaponise that?
Number 2 is underappreciated imo. There'll be huge numbers of nasty people all over the world feeling validated and empowered the day after a Donald Trump election win in the US. And there'll be even huger numbers of people with a nasty side (ie most people) now less inclined to suppress that part of themselves in favour of their better nature.
And number 3 is never mentioned but it ought to be imo. This guy lost last time, wouldn't accept it, tried to stay in power regardless, refused to cooperate with a transition, instead spread malicious lies about a rigged election and got almost half the country believing that. He trashed the place. So to see him returning in triumph four years later? No. Just simply wrong. A vomit inducing miscarriage of justice on the grandest scale. For me only Putin winning in Ukraine is in the same ballpark.
WTAF?
He's taken the bar, basically, and dropped it on the floor. Or rather he hasn't, because he's moved the goalposts, and you can't do both, but you know what I mean. His likely policies are bad news but it's this side of things, his insidious impact on hearts and minds, that bugs me the most.1 -
More importantly we also talk about classic TV. If it was not for you I would not have known about the radio adaptation of the stone tapeviewcode said:
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.
Best thing I have seen in a long time on talking pictures Tv. Sid James on Budgerigars.2 -
I don't agree with your assertion that most of the hatred comes from those who want to prioritise gender based over sex based rights.FrankBooth said:
Which assertion?FF43 said:..
I don't think your assertion is correct, but my main point is a plea for people to be more careful in what they say and be more empathetic and understand there are some very vulnerable people who get hurt. Avoid comments like "women with penises" for instanceFrankBooth said:
I'm sure there is hatred. I wouldn't want to underplay it and it has always been there for trans people. But most of the hatred on this issue in recent years has, I'm afraid, been coming from those who want to prioritise gender based over sex based rights. Look at the abuse directed at all those who have questioned the trans affirming narrative. Have many people taking a very pro trans position on this debate faced ostracism, abuse and threats?FF43 said:
From the judge's sentencing statement:boulay said:…
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.FF43 said:Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/02/brianna-ghey-murderers-named-sentenced-to-life-in-prison
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
I also disagree with @Cyclefree on this issue but she did everything I am suggesting on the previous thread.
Was it yourself a couple of days ago bemoaning Labour Party treatment of Rosie Duffield? It didn't in the end discipline Duffield for sharing a joke that Nazis preferred men with blond hair in a discussion about trans people murdered in the Holocaust. Formally I think it the correct decision but it doesn't dispose me to think highly of Duffield.
Talk of women with penises is casually hurtful.
2 -
Plus the importance of Moonraker to the British special effects industry...Taz said:
More importantly we also talk about classic TV. If it was not for you I would not have known about the radio adaptation of the stone tapeviewcode said:
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.
Best thing I have seen in a long time on talking pictures Tv. Sid James on Budgerigars. 3 -
The curse of LEONDAMUS has stopped working
😶0 -
My favourite Bond movie. I will defend it to my dying day.viewcode said:
Plus the importance of Moonraker to the British special effects industry...Taz said:
More importantly we also talk about classic TV. If it was not for you I would not have known about the radio adaptation of the stone tapeviewcode said:
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.
Best thing I have seen in a long time on talking pictures Tv. Sid James on Budgerigars.2 -
Get on with it.
Czechs want EU to shop abroad for Ukraine shells
The EU’s promise to supply ammunition is falling short, so Prague says it’s time to look beyond the bloc for shells.
https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-republic-artillery-weapons-ukraine-european-union/
...Frustrated by this shortfall, Prague is pushing EU countries to finance the purchase of what it estimates are 450,000 rounds of artillery available outside the bloc, four diplomats and a person familiar with the talks told POLITICO.
When the EU was calibrating its military aid commitments in early 2023, France — the bloc’s defense industry leader — had been pushing to make sure that subsidies were focused only on local production, rather than being funnelled abroad.
But the Czech call raises the prospect that Europe would turn instead to arms companies in South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell specifically mentioned that Korea — a major weapons producer — could be tapped for extra shells, according to the official...
Of course Europe needs to improve its manufacturing capacity - but not at the expense of Ukraine losing the war.
(As an aside, France is one of the lowest contributors of military aid in the EU, as a % of GDP.)
0 -
I'd agree with that.viewcode said:
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.
I'd add, though, that one of the biggest benefits of trans activism over the last decade is that it's a lot easier for trans kids to come out to their parents than used to be the case.4 -
Fair enough. And that same point applies when (eg) people present a specific unusual case of a rapist pretending to be trans (to get sent to a female prison) as proof that GRR reform would be a perverts charter.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.2 -
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.1 -
Of course, and that’s not something I’ve ever done.kinabalu said:
Fair enough. And that same point applies when (eg) people present a specific unusual case of a rapist pretending to be trans (to get sent to a female prison) as proof that GRR reform would be a perverts charter.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.0 -
Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.4 -
-
Looks as though the Alliance are going to enter the Northern Ireland executive, with Naomi Long in line for the Justice portfolio.
I'm conflicted about that. Obviously, having somebody avowedly non-partisan at Justice is both sensible and desirable. But wouldn't it be good to have a functioning opposition at Stormont? Which could only really be led by the Alliance for practical reasons although I believe the SDLP are the 'official' opposition.
What do our Northern Irish posters think?1 -
More on the Trump = Jesus meme.
The GOP leader in the House.
Mike Johnson: The Lord told me “very clearly" to prepare to become "Moses".
https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1753172582860275911
0 -
Pretty sure French are still sulking - and shell shocked - at losing their own World Cup. Especially that wayTaz said:
And the absence of Dupont is massive
I fear Ireland will stroll the Slam0 -
Great post.jamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.
If it that bleak I will save until the actual world is looking brighter, say when Trump and Putin are both gone.1 -
It is that bleak. It will affect me for a long time, and a number of friends who have read it who have responded to me on FB have felt the same.Benpointer said:
Great post.jamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.
If it that bleak I will save until the actual world is looking brighter, say when Trump and Putin are both gone.0 -
The bleakest artwork I have ever encountered was thisBenpointer said:
Great post.jamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.
If it that bleak I will save until the actual world is looking brighter, say when Trump and Putin are both gone.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2005/jan/02/art
“The presence of the houses was so powerful that ever since, from time to time, I have briefly imagined myself back in their claustrophobic space. Sometimes it will be a sweet, rotten smell of the kind that impregnated the gloomy rooms that acts as a trigger. Or I have come across others who made appointments to see the houses, all of whom want to share their survivors' stories: Did you make it down into the cellar? Or: Did you see the pornography? Or: Did you hear a baby crying?”
Utterly terrifying and desolate. No redemption at all. Also: genius0 -
On thread.
The thing that should worry the Welsh Tories even more is that they look set to lose all their Welsh parliamentary seats even when the polling is conducted by their most favourable Welsh polling company, R&W.
R&W have to date in their Welsh polling been publishing Labour leads over the Conservatives which are very roughly 10 points less than those of YouGov. YouGov's Welsh polling is long standing and they have been able to test their methods against actual results at the last GE and Assembly elections. R&W only arrived on the Welsh scene 9 months ago. So given the very different house effects I think the default position has to be to give YouGov's polling more credence, until there are real elections that might show otherwise.
R&W only get more prominence because they publish monthly polls, whereas YouGov publish theirs every 4 months or so. It's 4 months since the last YouGov Welsh poll....0 -
Government is like Fire. A powerful servant. A terrible master.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
The only difference between a mega corp and the Government is that the Government is populated with people who *think* they are Doing The Right Thing.
Both need strict supervision. Both need accountability. Both need human judgement.
I am going to bet that the information on the behaviour of the killer teen was not passed on - officially because of "Data Protection", but in reality because it was easier to shove her somewhere away from her previous victim.
Covering up, and then shifting the Bad Apple on. What does that all remind us of? Something about free bicycles?1 -
A crazy or a charlatan? It's hard to tell with these people sometimes. Not that it matters for most purposes.Nigelb said:More on the Trump = Jesus meme.
The GOP leader in the House.
Mike Johnson: The Lord told me “very clearly" to prepare to become "Moses".
https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/17531725828602759110 -
Did anyone else see Die Familie Schneider?
I feel a need to share the horror0 -
The Alliance are one of the few parties in Northern Ireland who are relatively normal - they just want to fix the drains and raise standards in schools.ydoethur said:Looks as though the Alliance are going to enter the Northern Ireland executive, with Naomi Long in line for the Justice portfolio.
I'm conflicted about that. Obviously, having somebody avowedly non-partisan at Justice is both sensible and desirable. But wouldn't it be good to have a functioning opposition at Stormont? Which could only really be led by the Alliance for practical reasons although I believe the SDLP are the 'official' opposition.
What do our Northern Irish posters think?
Northern Ireland doesn't really have politics - it's Sunningdale For Slow Learners. Or rather Sunningdale For Semi-retired Murderers. It's the Remedial Class.
Giving the Alliance some power might begin to move things on from that. Previously, Northern Ireland has been governed thus.
Politicians : We want something
British and Irish Governments : Who are you?
Politicians : We are democrats and politicians.
British and Irish Governments : Fuck off then. Whatever you want.
Scum : We want something
British and Irish Governments : Who are you?
Scum : We are semi-demi-ex torturers and murders. Stop the police investigation into those people who aren't our friends (no sir), or the place explodes again
British and Irish Governments : No problem - would you like your shoes shined?
Then people wonder why the Scum have risen to the top of "Politics" there.0 -
England will win this now0
-
Labour 48% and Conservative 20% is not as bad as you might expect for Wales. The Tories tend to be about 10 points below their UK wide polling in Wales so 20% is reasonable. For comparison with 1997 Labour got 55% and the Tories 19%.0
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I’ve finally been on the nice new 777 class on Merseyrail now. They are nice inside and out.Carnyx said:Getting ratty on here this afternoon.
Off to read a nice book about steam locomotive testing stations or something pleasant like that.
1 -
Cmon England
Make the points0 -
In contrast a short book but an excellent one which I read overnight 'Widow Basquiat' by Jennifer Clementjamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.1 -
There are 11 candidates for the Rochdale by election. Apart from the usual we will have George Galloway and also William Howarth founder of Parents Against Grooming UK. I cannot find odds on the possibility of either of them winning. Curiously there is another independent candidate Michael Howarth standing. I cannot find any reference to him online. He wouldn't have been set up as a spoiler would he?0
-
I’d put the The Kindly Ones in an adjacent but separate category (apart from anything else I’ve reread it a couple of times). It’s much longer of course but has a similar bleakness. It also has a long magical realist passage after Stalingrad which McCarthyism would have deplored, and I didn’t like much.jamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.1 -
That is one of the best reviews I have ever read. Reminds me of early Martin Amis and some of his reviews in The Moronic Inferno.jamesdoyle said:Today I finished reading The Road, by Corrmac McCarthy
I have put this off for a long time. I knew something of the storyline, and I wasn't sure how well I could manage it, so I needed to be sure I was in the right place to read it.
It's 307 pages long - a short book by today's standards - and I'm glad it wasn't longer: it's not a bad book, just a hard one. I took it at a rush. This is not a book to hang around in.
For anyone who hasn't read it, the book is about two characters, a father and son, walking through the aftermath of some unnamed and undescribed apoocalyptic event. Buildings still stand, mostly, but everything is covered in ash. The sun never shines, there is constant and total cloud cover. A few people, like the protagonists, have survived, but life is appalling, and brutal, and described in calm, unswerving, unsparing detail. Everything is dead: grass, trees, plants, fish, birds, animals, and nearly all people. And hope. Hope is dead.
It is brilliantly written, as you might expect from McCarthy. I am glad I have read it, but I will never pick it up again, nor watch the film. It is like walking into a room where an appalling, unnameable crime has been committed. It has to be witnessed, but not with any gladness. Everyone should read it, but I don't recommend you do.1 -
In Rugby, the stronger team invariably comes through at the end. The outcome is much more predictable than football.Taz said:England will win this now
0 -
This has been the most embarrassing performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama.0
-
What’s with these hairstyles where people have the side of their head shaved and Let the top grow long. Looks ridiculous.1
-
To appease our Scotch experts, I hurriedly suggest Mons Graupius as a worse one.TheScreamingEagles said:This has been the most embarrassing performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama.
0 -
How does one report offensive opinions on here?Taz said:
My favourite Bond movie. I will defend it to my dying day.viewcode said:
Plus the importance of Moonraker to the British special effects industry...Taz said:
More importantly we also talk about classic TV. If it was not for you I would not have known about the radio adaptation of the stone tapeviewcode said:
If we are going to start polling people on vhere they stand on trans issues, we're going in the wrong direction. I know what Taz's stance on the trans issue is. It's opposite to mine. I don't poke them on it, they don't poke me on it, we get along fine and talk about betting, the proper concern of chez OGH. This is not the place for purity tests.Roger said:
What were your views Taz on the 'gender debate' promoted by cyclefree that ran on PB for weeks possibly months? It would be interesting to know.Taz said:
Yet there are people making absurd claims. The fox killer seems to think The Times, with its excellent coverage of Tavistock, needs to show some contrition.Mexicanpete said:...
Are you coming to the end of a massive post Dry-January session? Because your last posts read like you are spoiling for a fight.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
Time for bed?
https://x.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1753687355301458203?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Quite frankly Leon’s response to Rogerdamus’s absurd claims is very reasonable. The death of this young child is being used as a stick to beat anyone who dares to be gender critical and is somewhat unpleasant.
Best thing I have seen in a long time on talking pictures Tv. Sid James on Budgerigars.
2 -
FPT: Thinking about policy: In the US, commercial aviation is significantly safer now than it was 20 years ago. Recently, a door blew off a Boeing airliner.
Which of these two facts is more important in thinking about policy?
Which fact has drawn more attention from our journalists -- and the public? (And I will admit that the second is more fun to read about, even for me.)0 -
Really decent game of rugby.0
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From what I have read about him, Mike Johnson really believes this stuff.kinabalu said:
A crazy or a charlatan? It's hard to tell with these people sometimes. Not that it matters for most purposes.Nigelb said:More on the Trump = Jesus meme.
The GOP leader in the House.
Mike Johnson: The Lord told me “very clearly" to prepare to become "Moses".
https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1753172582860275911
So, crazy.1 -
That was uncomfortably close. Italy vastly improved
But some promising glimpses of running talent in the new England squad
Good game0 -
Really enjoyed that match. I wish I could say the same after next one...0
-
OT:
Proper poll but not necessarily proper projection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Proper poll.dixiedean said:Entirely possible.
Is this a sub sample or a proper poll?
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-24-26-january-2024/
The tweet is from Stats For Lefties and the poll->seats mapping is just described as their "estimate based on Redfield and Wilton poll". So it might be UNS (where the "N" is Wales), or it might be a custom model, or it might be pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey. Who knows.0 -
My rugby mad Welsh friend is so depressed he reckon Scotland will romp home by 15 pointslogical_song said:
From what I have read about him, Mike Johnson really believes this stuff.kinabalu said:
A crazy or a charlatan? It's hard to tell with these people sometimes. Not that it matters for most purposes.Nigelb said:More on the Trump = Jesus meme.
The GOP leader in the House.
Mike Johnson: The Lord told me “very clearly" to prepare to become "Moses".
https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1753172582860275911
So, crazy.
The loss of Rees Zammit is a damn shame. Bloody NFL. He’s so exciting0 -
That final score flatters Italy
England should have run two or three tries in that dominant 2nd half0 -
It would be quite a challenge.Taz said:What’s with these hairstyles where people have the side of their head shaved and Let the top grow long. Looks ridiculous.
0 -
Luton Town!!!0
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Ross Barkley is one of England's great lost talents.TheScreamingEagles said:Luton Town!!!
I blame Chelsea.0 -
Indeed but not going to lie that Barkley to Chelsea transfer still cracks me up because of Joe 'Chippytits' Anderson reporting the transfer to the police.dixiedean said:
Ross Barkley is one of England's great lost talents.TheScreamingEagles said:Luton Town!!!
I blame Chelsea.
The mayor of Liverpool has asked police to investigate whether Ross Barkley’s cut-price transfer from Everton to Chelsea constitutes fraud.
Barkley joined the champions last week for £15m having rejected a £35m move to Stamford Bridge on transfer deadline day in August. The move so incensed Joe Anderson, Liverpool’s elected mayor and a lifelong Evertonian, he posted a series of tweets on the day criticising Barkley and the player’s agent while calling on the Football Association and Premier League to investigate the deal.
Anderson has now written to the FA chairman, Greg Clarke, and the Premier League executive chairman, Richard Scudamore – in an official capacity and using mayor of Liverpool headed paper – alleging the transfer “could be seen as a deliberate attempt to drive down a player’s value in the transfer market so as to benefit the player, his agent and the buying club”. And he claims to have contacted “the appropriate police authorities” with a request they investigate the deal for fraud.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jan/09/liverpool-mayor-joe-anderson-police-ross-barkley-everton-chelsea1 -
Of course, that resulted in a wipeout, and they didn't get any back in 2001 either. Had to wait until 2005. Best chance of a hold I would guess would be the adjusted seats in the borders - the successors to Brecon & Radnor, and Montgomery, where it may not be obvious who the main challenger is, and where the rural Tory vote may be more resilient.FrankBooth said:Labour 48% and Conservative 20% is not as bad as you might expect for Wales. The Tories tend to be about 10 points below their UK wide polling in Wales so 20% is reasonable. For comparison with 1997 Labour got 55% and the Tories 19%.
1 -
Ofsted meets the Posf Office.
Ofsted inspectors ‘make up evidence’ about a school’s performance when IT fails
Inspector tells Observer investigation that top officials are aware that computer system crashes can wipe out data
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/feb/03/ofsted-inspectors-make-up-evidence-about-a-schools-performance-when-it-fails
Imagine their judgment if a school were to do this.
And of course senior management lied about it.1 -
I wholeheartedly agree.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
A return to the days of "special schools" for anyone who is different isn't needed, I do think its a good thing that those who are different and have special education needs or disabilities are, wherever possible, in mainstream schools.
But awful behaviour is not a special need, its awful behaviour. Schools should be free to expel anyone who won't follow behaviour policy and is disruptive to the safety, wellbeing or simply the education of others.0 -
When the 737Max crashed twice in 2018/19 due to poor assumptions made by software there was maybe an aspect of Boeing struggling to get the hard stuff right. If a panel falls off because it wasn't actually attached that's Boeing not even getting the most basic things right. I do better than that on my kitchen units, and I'm the worst handyman there is. People are just making jokes about Boeing now.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Thinking about policy: In the US, commercial aviation is significantly safer now than it was 20 years ago. Recently, a door blew off a Boeing airliner.
Which of these two facts is more important in thinking about policy?
Which fact has drawn more attention from our journalists -- and the public? (And I will admit that the second is more fun to read about, even for me.)
0 -
What does that all remind us of?Malmesbury said:
Government is like Fire. A powerful servant. A terrible master.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
The only difference between a mega corp and the Government is that the Government is populated with people who *think* they are Doing The Right Thing.
Both need strict supervision. Both need accountability. Both need human judgement.
I am going to bet that the information on the behaviour of the killer teen was not passed on - officially because of "Data Protection", but in reality because it was easier to shove her somewhere away from her previous victim.
Covering up, and then shifting the Bad Apple on. What does that all remind us of? Something about free bicycles?
The Catholic Church?
The Police?
Am I getting close?0 -
Your suggestions would lead to a huge number of expulsions. What would happen to all the expelled kids, though? Where would they go?BartholomewRoberts said:
I wholeheartedly agree.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
A return to the days of "special schools" for anyone who is different isn't needed, I do think its a good thing that those who are different and have special education needs or disabilities are, wherever possible, in mainstream schools.
But awful behaviour is not a special need, its awful behaviour. Schools should be free to expel anyone who won't follow behaviour policy and is disruptive to the safety, wellbeing or simply the education of others.0 -
As ydoethur says, One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this.Northern_Al said:
Your suggestions would lead to a huge number of expulsions. What would happen to all the expelled kids, though? Where would they go?BartholomewRoberts said:
I wholeheartedly agree.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
A return to the days of "special schools" for anyone who is different isn't needed, I do think its a good thing that those who are different and have special education needs or disabilities are, wherever possible, in mainstream schools.
But awful behaviour is not a special need, its awful behaviour. Schools should be free to expel anyone who won't follow behaviour policy and is disruptive to the safety, wellbeing or simply the education of others.
0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
France has been cozying up to Russia since the invasion. Playing both sidesNigelb said:Get on with it.
Czechs want EU to shop abroad for Ukraine shells
The EU’s promise to supply ammunition is falling short, so Prague says it’s time to look beyond the bloc for shells.
https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-republic-artillery-weapons-ukraine-european-union/
...Frustrated by this shortfall, Prague is pushing EU countries to finance the purchase of what it estimates are 450,000 rounds of artillery available outside the bloc, four diplomats and a person familiar with the talks told POLITICO.
When the EU was calibrating its military aid commitments in early 2023, France — the bloc’s defense industry leader — had been pushing to make sure that subsidies were focused only on local production, rather than being funnelled abroad.
But the Czech call raises the prospect that Europe would turn instead to arms companies in South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell specifically mentioned that Korea — a major weapons producer — could be tapped for extra shells, according to the official...
Of course Europe needs to improve its manufacturing capacity - but not at the expense of Ukraine losing the war.
(As an aside, France is one of the lowest contributors of military aid in the EU, as a % of GDP.)
0 -
House of Commons?Northern_Al said:
Your suggestions would lead to a huge number of expulsions. What would happen to all the expelled kids, though? Where would they go?BartholomewRoberts said:
I wholeheartedly agree.ydoethur said:
One of the grave weaknesses of our education system is we have no proper system for dealing with children who have been expelled for behaviour like this. This means it's far too difficult to get rid of them and when you do they're normally shunted somewhere else without proper processes and therefore cause more problems.Malmesbury said:A
On the safeguarding - it appears that one of the teens was moved from another school after a nasty attack on another child.Leon said:
Yes, of course, this awful murder is @cyclefree’s fault for giving her measured opinions on this issue. Do you actually wake up in the morning and think “how can I be even more preposterous today”?Roger said:
No it wasn't. It was the prejudice that people like you have been peddling week in and week out against unfortunate vulnerable people like Briana. She seems to me to have been considerably more balanced than those who have seen them as freaks and opportunists and encouraged others to see them the sameCyclefree said:Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
Somehow, you manage it
In the new school, they weren’t told about this. Just that she had “issues”.
So they put her in group of those, like Briana, who were vulnerable.
Everyone followed The Process. They put a shark in the fish tank.
It's partly due to cutbacks but mostly due to stupidity, viz. the idea that somehow every child should be in a mainstream school and kept there come hell or high water no matter what is going on.
Not good for the troublemakers and not good for those around them.
A return to the days of "special schools" for anyone who is different isn't needed, I do think its a good thing that those who are different and have special education needs or disabilities are, wherever possible, in mainstream schools.
But awful behaviour is not a special need, its awful behaviour. Schools should be free to expel anyone who won't follow behaviour policy and is disruptive to the safety, wellbeing or simply the education of others.0 -
Stakes raised.FF43 said:
When the 737Max crashed twice in 2018/19 due to poor assumptions made by software there was maybe an aspect of Boeing struggling to get the hard stuff right. If a panel falls off because it wasn't actually attached that's Boeing not even getting the most basic things right. I do better than that on my kitchen units, and I'm the worst handyman there is. People are just making jokes about Boeing now.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Thinking about policy: In the US, commercial aviation is significantly safer now than it was 20 years ago. Recently, a door blew off a Boeing airliner.
Which of these two facts is more important in thinking about policy?
Which fact has drawn more attention from our journalists -- and the public? (And I will admit that the second is more fun to read about, even for me.)0 -
Trying to work out which one to surrender to.StillWaters said:
France has been cozying up to Russia since the invasion. Playing both sidesNigelb said:Get on with it.
Czechs want EU to shop abroad for Ukraine shells
The EU’s promise to supply ammunition is falling short, so Prague says it’s time to look beyond the bloc for shells.
https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-republic-artillery-weapons-ukraine-european-union/
...Frustrated by this shortfall, Prague is pushing EU countries to finance the purchase of what it estimates are 450,000 rounds of artillery available outside the bloc, four diplomats and a person familiar with the talks told POLITICO.
When the EU was calibrating its military aid commitments in early 2023, France — the bloc’s defense industry leader — had been pushing to make sure that subsidies were focused only on local production, rather than being funnelled abroad.
But the Czech call raises the prospect that Europe would turn instead to arms companies in South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell specifically mentioned that Korea — a major weapons producer — could be tapped for extra shells, according to the official...
Of course Europe needs to improve its manufacturing capacity - but not at the expense of Ukraine losing the war.
(As an aside, France is one of the lowest contributors of military aid in the EU, as a % of GDP.)
(Yes I know that's not fair. But the more accurate "Trying to work out which one will offer the biggest bribe" is less funny).0
