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And so to New Hampshire where one of the primaries won’t count – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,325
    edited January 18
    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    Not under the inevitable "Starmer becomes very unpopular very quickly" scenario.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    My perfect storm scenario isn't impossible.

    If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
    I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer

    I will not vote for Sunak
    Oh dear really !

    I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
    I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change

    I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses

    Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei

    I don't get Farage's appeal at all. He's good at telling you what's wrong but any halfwit can point out the problems. I've never heard him articulate a coherent solution to anything. As I recall, he's an economic Thatcherite so there's nothing in that for most people.

    Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.

    Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
    I have similar difficulty understanding the praise for Dominic Cummings.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    Low teens.

    Wipeout!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    I think it's worth studying the 2019 European elections. Yes, it's not directly comparable to a General Election, but the way the Tories completely fell through the floor is instructive.

    Farage ran a very professional campaign with a very plausible range of candidates drawn from diverse backgrounds. If he could replicate that and reach a tipping point where Tory support craters, the same could happen again and a lot of seats would be vulnerable. Ironically this might help the Lib Dems in the Home Counties.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I read this posters like @williamglenn and quietly boggle. The issue isn’t me trying to dismiss legit views of voters. The issue is that when you think most migration is illegal and have been promised it will stop, you aren’t going to be happy when Stop The Boats finally happens and find there are still a hundred thousand more of them arriving every year.

    It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.

    Your problem is that you often don’t write very well and your debating points are all garbled and shapeless

    Generally there is a decent idea behind the
    gibberish, even if wrong, but it is guised by the malformed prosody
    We are supposed to be doing our posts in blank verse?

    Wow.
    It’s not a necessary thing, and all PBers are exempt
    But you could at least show willing, and make a vague attempt
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    Quick raise the minimum voting age to 67
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    I know of a political leader who was pretty good at parties....
    Are these the wild korma parties?
    No, far more exciting with drink and everything. Plus no Starmer pep talk.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    Not under the inevitable "Starmer becomes very unpopular very quickly" scenario.
    Ah, ok, was looking at this election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    I see most Britons are wrong:

    Do Britons believe more migrants come to the UK legally or illegally?

    All Britons
    More come illegally: 45%
    More come legally: 34%
    About the same: 8%

    2019 Con voters
    More come illegally: 56%
    More come legally: 27%
    About the same: 8%

    2019 Lab voters
    More come illegally: 33%
    More come legally: 44%
    About the same: 7%

    yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1748021240009273784?t=wypuofuiGxaCltT5c08dTw&s=19

    The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
    I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.

    It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.

    Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
    They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
    Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care

    They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast

    The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars

    They are now waking up to this
    I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
    What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
    Precisely

    And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour

    And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!

    The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them

    I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance

    It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
    The next political wave may well be anti migrant and "nativist" as you call it but it will be pro welfare especially for poor locals and pro tax rises especially on foreign tax domiciles and businesses. They will also ask (with some justification) how so much of Britain's infrastructure came to be in foreign ownership and will seek to repatriate it back into British hands.

    It will be strongly pro local business and strongly anti big business especially multinationals.
    Yes, that’s possible
    Blue Labour

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa5vsa1FLKY
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    Or one that nearly happened in Indiana that pi = 3

    Why not. While we are at it let's abolish gravity.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    My perfect storm scenario isn't impossible.

    If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
    I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer

    I will not vote for Sunak
    Oh dear really !

    I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
    I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change

    I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses

    Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei

    I don't get Farage's appeal at all. He's good at telling you what's wrong but any halfwit can point out the problems. I've never heard him articulate a coherent solution to anything. As I recall, he's an economic Thatcherite so there's nothing in that for most people.

    Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.

    Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
    I agree with much of this. As I say, I certainly don’t see Farage as some intellectual giant. He’s barely a midget

    However I do think he has a basic political cunning, some actual political rizz, and he’s a proven winner (Brexit) and he’s willing to tackle issues others won’t, especially culture wars or immigration

    That said, I suspect his time is past. He can’t take over the Tory party before the GE and by the next election he’ll be knocking on in years and likely won’t fancy the hassle. Starmer will win, then fuck everything up even more, in a polite way

    I will make this prediction. A younger right wing populist will emerge in the coming decade. And this person WILL want power, and will quite likely seize
    it

    Its happening across the West, we are not uniquely immune
    That’s just not British.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    I know of a political leader who was pretty good at parties....
    Are these the wild korma parties?
    No, far more exciting with drink and everything. Plus no Starmer pep talk.
    Ah the birthday party with imported coke from Mexico.
  • dixiedean said:

    It's quite amazing how many scenarios mooted for the next election seem to tally with everyone eventually coming around to the poster's own opinions.

    The Tory optimism gets me.
    In the Con/LD Blue Wall marginals they say "the swing already happened in 2019",
    while in the Scottish Con/SNP marginals, they think there will be even more pro-Unionist tactical voting than in 2015, 2017 and 2019.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    By taking over the Tory party, media and donor base.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    I think it's worth studying the 2019 European elections. Yes, it's not directly comparable to a General Election, but the way the Tories completely fell through the floor is instructive.

    Farage ran a very professional campaign with a very plausible range of candidates drawn from diverse backgrounds. If he could replicate that and reach a tipping point where Tory support craters, the same could happen again and a lot of seats would be vulnerable. Ironically this might help the Lib Dems in the Home Counties.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
    The Lib Dems were the biggest winners of the 2019 European elections. A fact, alongside local election results, that led to the fatal hubris of Swinson's moonshot leadership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    Or one that nearly happened in Indiana that pi = 3

    Why not. While we are at it let's abolish gravity.
    Abolishing gravity is far too weighty a decision for this generation of politicians. Positively massive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
    You’ve said yourself that you are now senile. So if I make you wait a week you won’t even notice

    I’ll do it now!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    By taking over the Tory party, media and donor base.
    Yes, or that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    Not quite, yougov has Reform on 2% amongst 18-24s, 6% amongst 25-49s and 17% amongst 50-64s

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_Immigration_Cons_240117_W.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    edited January 18
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the Populist Right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    edited January 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
    You’ve said yourself that you are now senile. So if I make you wait a week you won’t even notice

    I’ll do it now!
    A week? Five minutes and I will have forgotten who you are.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    edited January 18
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    My perfect storm scenario isn't impossible.

    If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
    I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer

    I will not vote for Sunak
    Oh dear really !

    I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
    I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change

    I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses

    Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei

    I don't get Farage's appeal at all. He's good at telling you what's wrong but any halfwit can point out the problems. I've never heard him articulate a coherent solution to anything. As I recall, he's an economic Thatcherite so there's nothing in that for most people.

    Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.

    Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
    I have similar difficulty understanding the praise for Dominic Cummings.
    Bit of a parallel between them.

    The Cummings mystique is based on one (non-trivial) insight he had. In normal elections, the rule is "don't just promise any old rubbish, because if you win you have to deliver it". In a referendum, that's not the case. Cummings's genius, such as it is, starts and ends there. When he tried the same stunt in 2019, he planted the seeds of the 2024 disaster.

    Farage has realised much the same- as long as you're nowhere near actual power, you can say all sorts of crap. If he ever actually had responsibility, what would/could he do? Apart from soil himself and run home to mummy?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
    You’ve said yourself that you are now senile. So if I make you wait a week you won’t even notice

    I’ll do it now!
    A week? Five minutes and I will have forgotten who you are.
    Lucky you. What's the secret?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    Or one that nearly happened in Indiana that pi = 3

    Why not. While we are at it let's abolish gravity.
    Abolishing gravity is far too weighty a decision for this generation of politicians. Positively massive.
    Though Starmer's housebuilding plans imply lots of newtons.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
    You’ve said yourself that you are now senile. So if I make you wait a week you won’t even notice

    I’ll do it now!
    A week? Five minutes and I will have forgotten who you are.
    Lucky you. What's the secret?
    Don’t come on pb. Don’t read the Knappers gazette. Or, like @Mexicanpete be actually senile
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    Are you a supporter of proportional representation?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats

    Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government

    Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline

    I don’t see Starmer doing that
    The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.

    He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
    On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
    Here you go again with your use of " autistic" as a pejorative. You really are an unpleasant bigot.
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well.

    Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

    Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.

    Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:

    In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?

    Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:

    The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran

    called it. I said at the start he would try to use this crisis to eliminate Gaza and annex the West Bank.

    Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.

    Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.

    Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
    My prediction, likewise

    I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7

    They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them

    It is going to be hellish
    We need a citation because I don't recall any such prediction from @Leon. Plenty of us have called Netanyahu out, suggesting the subjugation of Palestinians was even his pre-October 7th objective. I think we need some evidence that you were on board rather than perhaps bullshitting today with the benefit of hindsight.
    You what? I’ve been saying for AGES that the only strategic sense behind the Gaza operation is if Israel intends to finish Gaza, as a functioning polity, forever

    And this was not a polemical point. I find both sides equally distasteful, in their way. I was just making an observation from about October 10

    I can prove this by fishing out old comments of mine, if you really insist. But please don’t. Simply because it’s a boring chore (and 3am in Cambodia)
    Fish away matey boy. I'm waiting.
    You’ve said yourself that you are now senile. So if I make you wait a week you won’t even notice

    I’ll do it now!
    A week? Five minutes and I will have forgotten who you are.
    Lucky you. What's the secret?
    Don’t come on pb. Don’t read the Knappers gazette. Or, like @Mexicanpete be actually senile
    Mexican who?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Since everyone's talking about losing weight today on PB:

    "Removing large wine measures cuts drinking by 7.6% in study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    Are you a supporter of proportional representation?
    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    edited January 18
    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    Are you a supporter of proportional representation?
    That's not the sort of thing to ask in decent company.


    Edit, oh, as you were.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    TimS said:

    Immigration is one of a number of politically salient issues but it waxes and wanes in salience, a long term decline in concern about it since the end of empire being overlaid by shorter periods of rapid rise and fall.

    The migration observatory is an excellent resource and full of good stats

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-of-concern/

    It's worth reading all of it but the key chart is figure 3. Salience, as we all know, increased through the noughties up to the referendum with a brief pause while everyone did the financial crisis. It then plunged, but has been rising again since 2021.

    Whether we're at the cusp of Leon's apocalypse when the streets will run red with the blood of idiotic vineyard owners or in a bit of a bump while Rishi bangs on about boats remains to be seen. My guess is probably somewhere between the two, but we'll see.

    Also interesting how much "defence / terrorism" has plummeted in the last year as Ukraine fades from consciousness. Clearly the Gaza upheaval and Houthis shooting across the Red Sea isn't worrying people much here yet.

    Extraordinary, though, that the only people who disagree with Leon are the idiots.

    Anyhow, here’s an article for the dumb viticulturist.

    The Quest for Simple Rules to Build a Microbial Community
    Microbiologists are searching for a universal theory of how bacteria form communities based not on their species but on the roles they play.
    https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-quest-for-simple-rules-to-build-a-microbial-community-20240117/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited January 18

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    If I was young I would look at this fucked up shambles of a world and ask are you serious? What on earth have this or the previous generation done that you think indicates intelligence or the ability to think critically or even at all?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,114
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    Are you a supporter of proportional representation?
    Yes.
    I think it’s time is coming. We really should see that having one party with large majorities of seats from a very small percentage of votes is not good for democracy. I used to believe that stable government was worth the undemocratic skewing of the votes but I no longer think this. I know that PR will lead to horse trading and that may well be alien to the public, but to be honest manifestos seem meaningless anyway.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    I see most Britons are wrong:

    Do Britons believe more migrants come to the UK legally or illegally?

    All Britons
    More come illegally: 45%
    More come legally: 34%
    About the same: 8%

    2019 Con voters
    More come illegally: 56%
    More come legally: 27%
    About the same: 8%

    2019 Lab voters
    More come illegally: 33%
    More come legally: 44%
    About the same: 7%

    yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1748021240009273784?t=wypuofuiGxaCltT5c08dTw&s=19

    The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
    I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.

    It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.

    Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
    They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
    Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care

    They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast

    The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars

    They are now waking up to this
    Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.

    But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?

    No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
    It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
    See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
    The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.

    If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
    I wouldn't have a scooby about the composition of the atmosphere so I would listen to the experts if I needed an opinion about it. I wouldnt expect any view I held about it to be of equivalent merit or substance as that as of a climate scientist.

    The problem with your suggested approach
    of all views need to be treated as valid is it
    simply doesnt work.
    Then perhaps we should scrap universal
    suffrage and accept that the arguments against it were well founded all along.
    It is probably better than the alternative. But of course, we should recognise that it is far from perfect and that when the public are ill informed they are unlikely to make coherent and sensible judgements.

    It is the job of politicians to lead and inform, not merely follow opinion polls.
    Interesting idea. Let me run a quick focus test
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Andy_JS said:

    Since everyone's talking about losing weight today on PB:

    "Removing large wine measures cuts drinking by 7.6% in study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025

    I fear that Leon losing weight by having just air between his ears is proving to be a false economy, however.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,302
    edited January 18
    There is only one person who can transform the Tories fortunes. And get this country back on a shining path.

    Total

    Renewal

    Under

    Superior

    Servant


    Did you solve my little poser?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    If I was young I would look at this fucked up shambles of a world and ask are you serious? What on earth have this or the previous generation done that you think indicates intelligence or the ability to think critically or even at all?
    Built the entire world? Including the internet and the smartphones they love?

    What have they done apart from chop their tits off by mistake?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    Pi = 3.2
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    If I was young I would look at this fucked up shambles of a world and ask are you serious? What on earth have this or the previous generation done that you think indicates intelligence or the ability to think critically or even at all?
    It's been a good while since the young didn't think that.

    Thank god they grow older, start buying The Spectator and tutting at the youngsters.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    If I was young I would look at this fucked up shambles of a world and ask are you serious? What on earth have this or the previous generation done that you think indicates intelligence or the ability to think critically or even at all?
    Built the entire world? Including the internet and the smartphones they love?

    What have they done apart from chop their tits off by mistake?
    Literal #lifehack.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    Are you a supporter of proportional representation?
    Yes.
    I think it’s time is coming. We really should see that having one party with large majorities of seats from a very small percentage of votes is not good for democracy. I used to believe that stable government was worth the undemocratic skewing of the votes but I no longer think this. I know that PR will lead to horse trading and that may well be alien to the public, but to be honest manifestos seem meaningless anyway.
    I’m going to sleep. But I want to end on a note of concord

    Coming from a very different perspective I completely agree. Britain desperately needs electoral reform. FPTP has now failed us, too many times, and the era of rigid class-based party loyalties is over. Bring on PR

    Night night
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    I think it's just laziness (too easy for someone else to curate what they see) and they haven't been taught to challenge fashionable orthodoxies from first principles.

    I doubt they're less "intelligent"; they're just not applying it.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670
    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    Or one that nearly happened in Indiana that pi = 3

    Why not. While we are at it let's abolish gravity.
    Abolishing gravity is far too weighty a decision for this generation of politicians. Positively massive.
    The clever ones don't want to abolish it. They just want to #defundthegravity. Which is much more tiktok-friendly.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,652
    Off Topic
    Some here (e.g. @darkage) might be interested to listen to a World Service programme about a radical way to deal with homelessness being pioneered in Finland. Basically by giving homeless people quality, permanent housing before attempting to address other issues — such as alcohol and drug use, or mental health problems — or helping people find jobs.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5mbg
    https://globalnews.ca/news/10198145/quebec-finland-successful-approach-homelessness-model/#
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
    They do

    https://www.joe.co.uk/politics/reform-uk-eyes-major-role-if-pr-gets-ushered-in-at-next-election-395648
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    The most successful insurgent party of recent times was the SDP, not because they were electorally successful but because the ideas and influence of those who were in that party came to take over both Conservative and Labour parties.

    One could even argue the Owenite SDP governed Britain from 1997 to 2016 - look at those influential with both Blair and Cameron and many had points of origin in the SDP of the mid-80s.

    Reform's best hope is not to supplant the Conservative Party but to complete the takeover of that party which is a likely outcome of a heavy defeat in November this year. Farage, like Owen, will never be in a position of direct power but his influence will inform the Conservatives in opposition until it is challenged and replaced by the next incarnation of One Nation Conservatism and we may have to wait for the mid 2030s for that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    edited January 18

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Critical thinking has certainly been lost in your post.

    Young people in this country have and will always have a range of views from across the political spectrum, with many having no strong views whatsoever. They don't vote en bloc. Thus I don't see how they can be considered 'far-left' at the moment or potentially liable to swing to the 'hard-right' in the future.

    There are a lot of reasons why more of the young tend to be drawn towards progressive parties though: They are more attuned to climate change; they are more used to and accepting of diversity; they tend not to benefit so much from the tax and benefit policies of the parties of the right, which favour pensioners, property owners, and those with large estates.

    For these reasons I think it unlikely that the young will 'swing hard-right'.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Andy_JS said:

    Since everyone's talking about losing weight today on PB:

    "Removing large wine measures cuts drinking by 7.6% in study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025

    This follows from my observation that both sides in the imperial or metric debate as wrong (at least when it comes to shopping) because we actually buy things by the packet, or in this case, the glass. It is the same as dieting by using smaller plates, because we eat by the plateful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    ohnotnow said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    If I was young I would look at this fucked up shambles of a world and ask are you serious? What on earth have this or the previous generation done that you think indicates intelligence or the ability to think critically or even at all?
    It's been a good while since the young didn't think that.

    Thank god they grow older, start buying The Spectator and tutting at the youngsters.
    As usual, Bob put it best:

    How much do I know
    To talk out of turn
    You might say that I’m young
    You might say I’m unlearned
    But there’s one thing I know
    Though I’m younger than you
    Even Jesus would never
    Forgive what you do

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78.
    With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
    If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
    They're getting zero among teens, tweens, thirties, forties - everyone except pensioners, indeed.
    That is one way we are very much not like other Europeans. There the far right has a strong following with the young, here it's army marches with Zimmer frame and Werthers Originals.
    It’s a good and interesting point. Apparently one reason Le Pen does so well with young French voters is because they have a vibrant right wing tv news scene - popular with the young

    However I can see this easily happening in the uk. Young people these days have much lower IQs (a fact) and are glued to their phones. It just needs someone to weaponise TikTok for UK yoot
    There's no reason young people in this country couldn't swing hard-right, from far-left.

    The key thing that's been lost is critical thinking.
    Quite so. Just feed them viral far right memes for a month on TikTok and insta and they will be Nazis

    They are an embarrassingly stupid generation. And I speak as a father of teens

    It’s surely not their fault (more like ours) but it is the case
    A lot of them seem to be very bossy and authoritarian, regardless of whether they're right or left.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    edited January 18
    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    Who is Keir Stramer, and why did he get so many votes ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
    They do, or certainly Tice’s associate Isabel Oakshott does. I just don’t see this happening (or them playing an active role campaigning for it) any time soon. The relationship with the conservatives - that of rebellious younger sibling - is too close.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,560
    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    I miss the days when we were assured Sweden didn’t want anything to do with NATO, although they need to come up with better Operation names, it’s no Able Archer or ReForGer.

    Nato members will send 90,000 troops to the alliance’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.

    Britain is deploying 20,000 soldiers to Operation Steadfast Defender 2024, which starts next week and will continue until the end of May.

    Gen Christopher Cavoli, Nato’s most senior commander, said the exercises would demonstrate the alliance’s ability to quickly “reinforce” its territory in the event of an attack.

    Exercises will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic States in what is widely expected to be a simulation of war with Russia.

    Troops from all 31 Nato members and Sweden, a candidate for membership, are taking part.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/18/ukraine-russia-war-live-st-petersburg-drone-strike/

    Operation Smörgåsbord.
    You can tell the Americans are in charge when operations have daftly heroic names. I prefer the British names which mean absolutely nothing e.g. Operation Market Garden.
    There's a reason for meaningless names. Famously the Allies worked out that "Wotan" was a single beam radar system because Wotan had one eye. And a Welsh accent. See https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/bnkzdq/til_during_wwii_the_german_army_used_a_radar/
    Welsh accent :)

    Other Wotans are available...


    Father in law took part in "Operation Musketeer" although the kit bag (still used by Mrs Flatlander) says M.E.L.F.

    Maybe not one to brag about.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Specially posted for a particular PBer.

    "Aliens are among us
    Governments don't want us to believe there's something out there
    Mary Harrington"

    https://unherd.com/2024/01/aliens-are-among-us/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Nigelb said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    Who is Keir Stramer, and why did he get so many votes ?
    Same applies to Ed Davey really.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Quite comical, although he only goes West Country for a few words ‘ere & there really

    NEW: The mystery of Labour by-election candidate's changing accent: Damien Egan's pronunciation has also gone west after mayor of Lewisham was chosen to stand in Gloucestershire's Kingswood constituency 120 miles away - compare here

    https://x.com/davidtwilcock/status/1748018247163613226?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,040
    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    isam said:

    Quite comical, although he only goes West Country for a few words ‘ere & there really

    NEW: The mystery of Labour by-election candidate's changing accent: Damien Egan's pronunciation has also gone west after mayor of Lewisham was chosen to stand in Gloucestershire's Kingswood constituency 120 miles away - compare here

    https://x.com/davidtwilcock/status/1748018247163613226?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    My theory is that he’s originally West Country and he was actually faking a SE London accent the last few years. Lots do it, even Tony Blair. Now back with mum and dad and he’s relapsing.

    Not that I’ve looked it up yet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Andy_JS said:

    Since everyone's talking about losing weight today on PB:

    "Removing large wine measures cuts drinking by 7.6% in study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025

    On the contrary. It means that I have to drink my ale faster to keep up with the wine drinkers and end up having an extra pint.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    Who is Keir Stramer, and why did he get so many votes ?
    Same applies to Ed Davey really.
    And Rishi Sunak.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Quite comical, although he only goes West Country for a few words ‘ere & there really

    NEW: The mystery of Labour by-election candidate's changing accent: Damien Egan's pronunciation has also gone west after mayor of Lewisham was chosen to stand in Gloucestershire's Kingswood constituency 120 miles away - compare here

    https://x.com/davidtwilcock/status/1748018247163613226?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    My theory is that he’s originally West Country and he was actually faking a SE London accent the last few years. Lots do it, even Tony Blair. Now back with mum and dad and he’s relapsing.

    Not that I’ve looked it up yet.
    Could well be that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Salah off injured and Ghana 1 nil up.

    Goal of the tournament so far is Zambia vs DRC:

    https://twitter.com/centregoals/status/1747717462769217892?t=me3if0r0H414IU-b5qsW8w&s=19
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
    It does.

    Tonight will be an illustration of the absurdity of FPTP.

    There are two by elections today in Richmond Park - Teddington and Hampton North. Results in by midnight.

    They will both be Lib Dem wins and will leave Richmond Borough Council with 54 Councillors with zero Tories and zero Labour! Yet I would guess that 20% of residents are Labour supporters and 30% are Tories. But no representation whatsoever. It's not healthy.
    Same nonsense here in Lewisham. 50/50 Labour councillors. We used to have one token green in my ward but he’s long gone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Let's assume Starmer and Labour get their landslide in November - the truth is people will stop talking about or thinking about politics for a while.

    Inevitably, opposition will develop - it may be over a particular policy or through general disillusionment or disappointment - the question is where will that opposition go? Initially Reform, the LDs and Greens could do well as the initial recepticles of that protest vote. The key will be when and in what way will the Conservatives start acting like a party that's in opposition and wants to get back to power and stop thinking they are still in Government and don't know where the Ministerial car has gone?

    Last time it took years - it may do this time as well and the first point will likely need to be a leader with no obvious connection to what went before - anyone tarred with Johnson, Truss or Sunak might as well leave politics after November. The Conservatives will need to be able to demonstrate a clean break with the past even to the extent of a bit of mea culpa (which is easy when you weren't involved in the first place).

    The road to the future means facing up to the mistakes of the past.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    Why is BBC3 a higher channel number than BBC4?
    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    That is a statement of the obvious not turning on his staff.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    edited January 18
    isam said:

    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Quite comical, although he only goes West Country for a few words ‘ere & there really

    NEW: The mystery of Labour by-election candidate's changing accent: Damien Egan's pronunciation has also gone west after mayor of Lewisham was chosen to stand in Gloucestershire's Kingswood constituency 120 miles away - compare here

    https://x.com/davidtwilcock/status/1748018247163613226?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    My theory is that he’s originally West Country and he was actually faking a SE London accent the last few years. Lots do it, even Tony Blair. Now back with mum and dad and he’s relapsing.

    Not that I’ve looked it up yet.
    Could well be that
    The weird thing is there’d be no political benefit to faking being from London. You could stand for Labour mayor in Lewisham with a broad Brummie accent and still win handsomely.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
    He said he takes responsibility for all CPS decisions under his watch, but as soon as he was confronted with the PO prosecutions he started talking about how he had 7,000 staff and they made mistakes. Seems more like spreading the blame than carrying the can
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,972
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda.
    https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/

    Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
    (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
    (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
    (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.

    The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.

    This has always been the single most bizarre element in the Rwanda Bill - the thought that parliament can legislate to declare (not deem) a future contingent fact to be so.

    So, a future dialogue in the SC:

    Lord Reed: Mr Eadie, is it the government's position that a court could be able to review whether, say, Switzerland is a safe country but not Rwanda?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord.

    Lord Reed: And that would be true is genocide or civil war were taking place in Rwanda at the time?

    Mr Eadie KC: Yes my Lord; the Act is clear and admits no review or exceptions
    We need a back bencher to introduce the World is a flat disc balanced on a giant turtle Act 2024.

    Or give up on Parliamentary Sovereignty on the basis that it was an implied term that our legislators were actually sane.
    The probability of a majority of legislators going insane in congruent ways should be lower than a single Monarch doing so, but the rise in the power of party leaders and the office of PM, weakens the safeguard.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    TimS said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
    It does.

    Tonight will be an illustration of the absurdity of FPTP.

    There are two by elections today in Richmond Park - Teddington and Hampton North. Results in by midnight.

    They will both be Lib Dem wins and will leave Richmond Borough Council with 54 Councillors with zero Tories and zero Labour! Yet I would guess that 20% of residents are Labour supporters and 30% are Tories. But no representation whatsoever. It's not healthy.
    Same nonsense here in Lewisham. 50/50 Labour councillors. We used to have one token green in my ward but he’s long gone.
    So are the Corbynistas or the Blairites the official opposition?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
    He said he takes responsibility for all CPS decisions under his watch, but as soon as he was confronted with the PO prosecutions he started talking about how he had 7,000 staff and they made mistakes. Seems more like spreading the blame than carrying the can
    That still isn't a contradiction.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    stodge said:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Let's assume Starmer and Labour get their landslide in November - the truth is people will stop talking about or thinking about politics for a while.

    Inevitably, opposition will develop - it may be over a particular policy or through general disillusionment or disappointment - the question is where will that opposition go? Initially Reform, the LDs and Greens could do well as the initial recepticles of that protest vote. The key will be when and in what way will the Conservatives start acting like a party that's in opposition and wants to get back to power and stop thinking they are still in Government and don't know where the Ministerial car has gone?

    Last time it took years - it may do this time as well and the first point will likely need to be a leader with no obvious connection to what went before - anyone tarred with Johnson, Truss or Sunak might as well leave politics after November. The Conservatives will need to be able to demonstrate a clean break with the past even to the extent of a bit of mea culpa (which is easy when you weren't involved in the first place).

    The road to the future means facing up to the mistakes of the past.
    The key point is that a party needs a new untainted generation in order to shed its skin and regenerate.

    That is why Starmer will get at least two parliaments. The next Tory PM is either an unknown backbencher at present or not yet elected.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting data point from the YouGov.

    And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
    Farage has the most cult-like following.
    Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
    How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
    Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.

    We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.

    It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.

    RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.

    It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.

    Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
    Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:

    Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).

    Other way around is

    Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).

    No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
    So how does RefUK overcome the FPTP trap? They're unlikely to join with their lefty enemies in a PR vote anytime soon and most of their ageing support base are probably indoctrinated to believe FPTP brings strong government, so...they need to get creative.

    The Canadian (and Italian) models are perhaps the most useful. Become a regional party. Which region? They have a choice of 2 I think: the Eastern fenland and coastal counties, or the Thames estuary.

    Trouble with the Eastern option is I'm not sure there's much of a regional identity. Teesside is going to see itself as Teesside or at a push the North East. Lincolnshire is sui generis and too small on its own. The estuary has the problem of dividing two populations who don't realise how similar they are: estuarine Essex and estuarine Kent. So am estuary party isn't going to work.

    So, how about the local radio or local newspaper strategy. A franchise with local identity. Multiple "regional" parties united by an umbrella brand. That allows for a Lincolnshire people's party, a Kentish men / men of Kent party, an Essex party and so on, each with their own leadership and candidates but all endorsed by an influential franchisor, like Farage, and bearing their colours. If the CDU/CSU can pull it off in Germany maybe it's an option.

    It's not even unknown in Britain. The SDLP and Alliance party being the Labour and Lib Dem siblings in NI but still being very clearly Northern Irish parties.
    I thought Reform did want PR
    It does.

    Tonight will be an illustration of the absurdity of FPTP.

    There are two by elections today in Richmond Park - Teddington and Hampton North. Results in by midnight.

    They will both be Lib Dem wins and will leave Richmond Borough Council with 54 Councillors with zero Tories and zero Labour! Yet I would guess that 20% of residents are Labour supporters and 30% are Tories. But no representation whatsoever. It's not healthy.
    Newham is another example - I can see no argument against PR for local elections, none whatsoever and ideally STV. Anything but that abomination known as AV.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Let's assume Starmer and Labour get their landslide in November - the truth is people will stop talking about or thinking about politics for a while.

    Inevitably, opposition will develop - it may be over a particular policy or through general disillusionment or disappointment - the question is where will that opposition go? Initially Reform, the LDs and Greens could do well as the initial recepticles of that protest vote. The key will be when and in what way will the Conservatives start acting like a party that's in opposition and wants to get back to power and stop thinking they are still in Government and don't know where the Ministerial car has gone?

    Last time it took years - it may do this time as well and the first point will likely need to be a leader with no obvious connection to what went before - anyone tarred with Johnson, Truss or Sunak might as well leave politics after November. The Conservatives will need to be able to demonstrate a clean break with the past even to the extent of a bit of mea culpa (which is easy when you weren't involved in the first place).

    The road to the future means facing up to the mistakes of the past.
    The key point is that a party needs a new untainted generation in order to shed its skin and regenerate.

    That is why Starmer will get at least two parliaments. The next Tory PM is either an unknown backbencher at present or not yet elected.
    I'd prefer it if they were not yet born.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24058233.yougov-second-poll-finds-support-royal-family-50-per-cent/

    Specially for @TSE

    I won't bother HYUFD, out of the goodness of my heart. But

    'In Scotland, just 33% of people prefer the royal family – the lowest figure out of all the UK nations - according to the pollster's data.'

    Oh I see you have found the second Republic commissioned poll as they continue their agenda of pushing polls, which include elected head of state rather than republic v monarchy as it polls slightly better.

    Republic are doing this of course because they are too cowardly to stand for election on their pro Republic agenda so we must continue to ignore their agenda.

    Even then the fact this Republic commissioned Yougov poll finds just 31% of UK voters want an elected head of state is pathetic for them. If Republic cannot even get all the 32% who voted for Corbyn even in 2019 to support them and a comfortable majority of Scots for a republic, who can they get?
    Completely missing the point.

    Arse you accusing Yougov of being bent? You've very close to it, unless ytou admit bending the conclusions.

    Fact remains - royalism is ebbing.

    I merely observe an interesting fact.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
    He said he takes responsibility for all CPS decisions under his watch, but as soon as he was confronted with the PO prosecutions he started talking about how he had 7,000 staff and they made mistakes. Seems more like spreading the blame than carrying the can
    That still isn't a contradiction.
    I think what I’ve said does show a contradiction
    actually, he said every decision taken was his responsibility. then started mentioning other people when a bad decision could have been uncovered. The original tweet can be seen as ok if you want to see it that way.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,302
    I’m didn’t realise the Beeb had the rights to some Afcon games. I’ve been watching the tournament on Sky. Some good games so far and a fair few upsets: wins for Cape Verde and Namibia over World Cup regulars Ghana and Tunisia being proper shocks.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210
    Ratters said:

    Catching up after work, but I'm still amazed by the YouGov poll showing only 10% of under 50s supporting the Tories. At Lib Dem levels. And only rising to 15% if we generously include Reform voters.

    It reflects the complete inability of the Conservatives to appeal to Millennial (the oldest of which are mid 40s) or younger voters.

    And this is no longer an age group that can be ignored electorally. 18-25 year olds' - fine. Even under 40s is possible. But what an electorally successful party cannot do is become the party of pensioners.

    There's no way they will make this adjustment while in power, but once in opposition they need to find a way to get people to follow the traditional trend of becoming more right-wing as they get old. Or else they will spend a lot of time in the wilderness.

    Is this a poll of "who do you support?" or "who will you vote for?" I would still say I generally support the Conservative Party but there is no way I will vote for them next time. I felt the same way when Blair got in (I voted LibDem as it happens but then I lived in Kingston) but I was back voting Tory at the next GE. But it does depend on the Tories becoming sensible while in opposition, which may not be a given
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
    He said he takes responsibility for all CPS decisions under his watch, but as soon as he was confronted with the PO prosecutions he started talking about how he had 7,000 staff and they made mistakes. Seems more like spreading the blame than carrying the can
    That still isn't a contradiction.
    I think what I’ve said does show a contradiction
    actually, he said every decision taken was his responsibility. then started mentioning other people when a bad decision could have been uncovered. The original tweet can be seen as ok if you want to see it that way.
    It would only be a contradiction if he claimed to be infallible.

    He can both be responsible for every decision, and accept that there will have been mistakes without contradiction.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459

    Cicero said:

    Good afternoon from Gatwick. Sensational business meeting this morning, so well worth the trip. But. Roads were unpleasant for a chunk of the drive to the airport yesterday, and today can best be described as snowmageddon.

    I wonder if I will actually make it home tonight? Back to Aberdeen, no problem. Beyond that, not sure...

    It could be a bit of a Dyce-y journey.
    The Glens will be a bit tricky. Check before you leave Dyce.
    I just got the train back into Aberdeen from Dyce. All the trains on the Inverness line are running late and there are a lot of cancellations - amusingly the anouncements say because of 'predicted severe weather' rather than because of actual severe weather. There is still about 4 inches of snow on the ground at Dyce and I presume it gets worse as you move out of the immediate environs of Aberdeen.

    I willl be spending the weekend waiting on choppers in Aberdeen. I was supposed to fly up to the Shetlands tomorrow and then on from there ouit into the Atlantic for 3 weeks on the Ocean GreatWhite - the largest semi-submersible drilling rig in the world. Unfortunately (particularly for my back to back) the weather has been so bad that no choppers have made it to the rig this week. Lots of people who already spent Christmas and New Year offshore now not able to get home.

    Predictions are 70 - 80 mile an hour winds over the next week so not sure I will be going anywhere for a while.
    Richard, any Cajuns on the North Sea rigs?

    Acadians of Louisiana have a footprint (in a manner of speaking) out in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Except in Ron-DeSantis-Land for some reason?

    Either ethnic bigotry OR absence (so far) of oil/gas wells in Sunshine State state waters.

    BTW/FYI - RDS big fan of fracking & offshore oil/gas drilling . . . just NOT in Florida . . .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Post Office inquiry: Fujitsu manager called sub-postmaster 'nasty chap'"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68017571

    The picture emerging from the inquiry is that Fujitsu knew from the start that its system was unfit for purpose (aka total crap), and did its very best to hide this from the Post Office while employing teams working through the night desperately patching bugs - while the Post Office initially prosecuted subpostmasters believing the assurances from its supplier, but as the true picture began to emerge, doubled down rather than face up to the travesty it has already committed. And as the situation got worse and worse, continued to play double or quits like a desperate gambler who knows they can’t afford the losses already incurred. Until the whole house came tumbling down.

    Who is the most culpable, you can decide?

    Meanwhile if Sir Wyn wants to cut and paste the above for the opening section of his inquiry report, his cheque should be sent to the usual address.
    Over a couple of weekends you and I could probably write the entire report.

    I see that Fujitsu have decided not to put themselves forward for any more public sector contracts.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    nico679 said:

    Why doesn’t the spineless gimp test the will of the people and call a general election .

    No one voted for his Rwanda plan so he needs to stfu about the Lords .

    It wasn’t in the last Tory manifesto so they are under no requirement to pass his moronic Bill .

    IIRC, what was in the Tory manifesto was a commitment to not do any Lords reform.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24058233.yougov-second-poll-finds-support-royal-family-50-per-cent/

    Specially for @TSE

    I won't bother HYUFD, out of the goodness of my heart. But

    'In Scotland, just 33% of people prefer the royal family – the lowest figure out of all the UK nations - according to the pollster's data.'

    The monarchy needs to just quietly carry on. In the long run the issue would be: What is the better way that would, with mass support, replace it? There is no candidate.

    By comparison, disestablishment of the CoE would be easy. But no-one wanting to be the government will touch it.

    No party seeking government will put this in a manifesto. It is worth a couple of million votes lost, and few gained. Those numbers swing elections. So it can't happen, barring a series of black swans.
    Sure, but it's an interestding trend, like the decline in the use of clockwork radio. A litmus paper for trust in the deep Establishment quite apart from current hiccups.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    stodge said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else

    Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May

    Do not frustrate the will of the people'

    In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons
    itv.com/news/2024-01-1…


    https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1747930712110498127?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Indeed.

    If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
    Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any personality, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out there, the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
    No.

    If he gets himself on to the TV debates, and renames Reform 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party', they stand to do very well. They should do the renaming thing now and see it it affects the polls actually.
    The problem though is that the Reform vote is strongest where the Conservative vote is strongest - we saw in the Clacton poll last weekend it would require Farage to be the candidate for Reform to win but without him they are third and while their vote is 18%, Labour's vote was up 15 points so the Conservative vote was peeling off to both Reform and Labour leaving the fifth safest Conservative seat looking like a marginal.

    One way to ensure a Labour landslide is to have Reform running at 10-20% across a swathe of Conservative constituencies in the Midlands and Eastern England.
    It's naive to assume that those who have half-heartedly slunk back to Labour after ditching them for Boris are happy and settled with their choice.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Starmer '20: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."

    Starmer '24: "We had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course, there will."

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1747981938462261529?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't see a contradiction between those two statements.
    He said he takes responsibility for all CPS decisions under his watch, but as soon as he was confronted with the PO prosecutions he started talking about how he had 7,000 staff and they made mistakes. Seems more like spreading the blame than carrying the can
    That still isn't a contradiction.
    I think what I’ve said does show a contradiction
    actually, he said every decision taken was his responsibility. then started mentioning other people when a bad decision could have been uncovered. The original tweet can be seen as ok if you want to see it that way.
    It would only be a contradiction if he claimed to be infallible.

    He can both be responsible for every decision, and accept that there will have been mistakes without contradiction.
    If I said I took ultimate responsibility for everything that happened on my watch, saying I’d never blame my staff, when confronted by an error on my watch I know I’d be being dodgy if I started mentioning how many staff I had working for me and saying “how was I supposed to know?”
This discussion has been closed.