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And so to New Hampshire where one of the primaries won’t count – politicalbetting.com
And so to New Hampshire where one of the primaries won’t count – politicalbetting.com
Next Tuesday we have the WH2024 primary in New Hampshire which has traditionally been the first state to decide.
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@JAHeale
Gordon Brown asked by Sky on whether he will do a Cameron-style comeback: “I’m too old to be a British politician and too young to be an American politician.”
Don't ask.
Equally Dan instantly saw through a whole set of landlord schemes that HMRC only issued a spotlight about after Dan’s work
fantasyingthinking about Michelle Mone in a women’s prison.Edit: either way, the betting will be affected by the vote, but it is not affected in the sense that betting is still happening.
Nato members will send 90,000 troops to the alliance’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.
Britain is deploying 20,000 soldiers to Operation Steadfast Defender 2024, which starts next week and will continue until the end of May.
Gen Christopher Cavoli, Nato’s most senior commander, said the exercises would demonstrate the alliance’s ability to quickly “reinforce” its territory in the event of an attack.
Exercises will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic States in what is widely expected to be a simulation of war with Russia.
Troops from all 31 Nato members and Sweden, a candidate for membership, are taking part.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/18/ukraine-russia-war-live-st-petersburg-drone-strike/
I wonder if I will actually make it home tonight? Back to Aberdeen, no problem. Beyond that, not sure...
You could argue that no primaries will have an effect given that Biden is the only credible candidate. To that end, NH is no different.
However, if it were a competitive race, the fact that no delegates will be apportioned as a result of the vote would probably make precious little difference. The momentum coming out of these early states still matters greatly in framing the contest and it certainly wouldn't "have no impact on who is the Democratic nominee".
Hmmm. Rishi needs a hot war.
"and the man at the back said
Everyone attack!"
Labour drop from 47% to 44%
Conservative up from 20% to 34%
Reform drop from 10% to 1%
Lib Dems drop from 8% to 7%
Greens drop from 7% to 6%
On the same list there's "Reduce NHS Waiting Lists" this would get more Tory support from 27% of the public, including 19% of Labour voters. Again making the massive assumption that more likely to support means actually switching your vote, that would mean:
Labour drop from 47% to 38%
Conservative up from 20% to 39%
Reform drop from 10% to 3%
Lib Dems drop from 8% to 7%
Greens drop from 7% to 6%
And that would be hung parliament, Conservative largest party territory.
Sunak and Starmer are tied in the Blue Wall.
Which of the following do Blue Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (17-18 January)
Keir Starmer 36% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 36% (-4)
Changes +/- 4 December
Invariably, though, the "Surprise NATO attack" was assumed to have conquered not an inch of Warsaw Pact Territory and destroyed nothing. And the Warsaw pact units were all assumed to be at maximum readiness. And raring to go, on the border....
https://tankmuseumshop.org/products/world-of-tanks-low-top-canvas-trainer-urban-camo
Some keyboard snipers moaning that I criticised the opposition for referring to the Kigali government, not the Rwandan government.
I would not call the French government, the Paris government nor the Scottish government, the Edinburgh government.
Why disrespect Rwanda?
https://x.com/theresecoffey/status/1747964647355854893?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synecdoche
https://x.com/theresecoffey/status/1747964647355854893?s=20
Yet more Streisand effect. Why do people do this?
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons
itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1747930712110498127?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
@montie Holyrood, Cardiff and Stormont now have carte blanche on devolved matters with no scrutiny from Lords
https://x.com/theresecoffey/status/562531086480470016?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Stella Ceeasy also doubled down on her faux pas.
Do Britons believe more migrants come to the UK legally or illegally?
All Britons
More come illegally: 45%
More come legally: 34%
About the same: 8%
2019 Con voters
More come illegally: 56%
More come legally: 27%
About the same: 8%
2019 Lab voters
More come illegally: 33%
More come legally: 44%
About the same: 7%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1748021240009273784?t=wypuofuiGxaCltT5c08dTw&s=19
Had one recently named after a Shakespearean character - could well be the corporate "theme" for naming projects.
Current project shares a name with a railway locomotive, which is much better!
SSI - Half correct, half NOT.
Correct in sense that, because New Hamphire primary date violated Democratic National Party rules, zero delegates will be awarded . . . at least until the Democratic National Convention comes up with a fix, like happened in 2016 with similar situation re: Michigan.
Wrong in sense that, if Joe Biden's write-in campaign yields way less than, say, 50% of the total NH Democratic presidential primary vote, THAT could most definitely have an impact - on the betting, on upcoming primaries AND on the nomination.
AS FOR NEVADA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS versus PRIMARY
Note that under Nevada GOP rules, any candidate who filed for the Nevada Primary is INELIGIBLE to receive ANY delegates from the Silver State to the Republican National Convention.
Here is list of candidate who filed for Nevada Republican presidential PRIMARY
John Anthony Castro
Heath V. Fulkerson
Nikki Haley
Donald Kjornes
Mike Pence (withdrawn)
Tim Scott (withdrawn)
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)
And here is list of candidates who filed with NV GOP for Nevada Republican presidential CAUCUSES
Ryan Binkley
Ron DeSantis
Donald Trump
Blue Wall Sunak v Starmer (17-18 January)
Starmer leads on 13 of 18 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Cares about ppl. like me (35% | 25%)
Represents change (38% | 29%)
Keeps promises (28% | 23%)
Is a strong leader (31% | 29%)
https://x.com/sadiqkhan/status/1747646645825622219
https://x.com/ruthdavidsonpc/status/1747945096807362650?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration. My sense is public opinion is being shaped by the news on this, rather than personal experience. In the same way you sometimes see people's views on their personal financial prospects way more positive than their answers on the national economy.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
And another very interesting difference from 2014-16: concern about immigration in polling is much more partisan, and more concentrated in older voters. If it's largely the retired who are worrying then it's not because they're directly affected by housing availability or school places, which was one of the big gripes in areas with large Eastern European influxes before Brexit.
“The globe is already pockmarked with crises, and here may be another: North Korea is acting in highly unusual ways, leading some veteran analysts to fear it is preparing a surprise attack on South Korea and perhaps on Japan and Guam as well.”
NYT
45% saw the Angles, Saxons and Jutes risking treacherous sea crossings in small, poorly equipped boats, and just wading ashore. And so, naturally, they answer that they came here illegally. Whereas the minority of subscribers to the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle knew that Hengist and Horsa had been invited over by Vortigern, and hence had arrived legally.
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I willl be spending the weekend waiting on choppers in Aberdeen. I was supposed to fly up to the Shetlands tomorrow and then on from there ouit into the Atlantic for 3 weeks on the Ocean GreatWhite - the largest semi-submersible drilling rig in the world. Unfortunately (particularly for my back to back) the weather has been so bad that no choppers have made it to the rig this week. Lots of people who already spent Christmas and New Year offshore now not able to get home.
Predictions are 70 - 80 mile an hour winds over the next week so not sure I will be going anywhere for a while.
In the past week alone, the Middle East has seen an insane scale of cross-border conflict:
Pakistan <-> Iran
Houthi -> Red Sea shipping
Iran -> Syria
Iran -> Iraq
Hezbollah -> Israel
US/UK -> Yemen
Turkey -> Syria
Jordan -> Syria
Iran proxies in Iraq -> Israel
The last one did a somersault and landed on his feet. He got lucky with the last roll of the Dyce.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
We will see! Otherwise I will be in an airport hotel...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68017571
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty