PB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries – politicalbetting.com
A total of 81 of entries were received for the PB Prediction Competition 2024 and I have included a summary of those entries below.
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It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.
Again, thanks.
I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.
No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend.
Mr. Punter, I just made my answers up on the spot
Sunak is toast.
Trump thanks him and posts veiled threat to judges.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpfshnAjuzE
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19
Does the US have a requirement that elected reps be sane, and if so, how the fuck has Marjorie Taylor Greene not been disqualified from the House? She makes Goebbels look normal.
After all, Julius Caesar is literally unkillable, being already killed.
Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
Do you get any points for being correct that there would be a change but wrong about who it was?
It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points.
Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger. This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d5d2faba-9d73-4753-a10f-980be039011e?shareToken=0365f891b5fdd14031cb27cf9b5dbcc3
Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:
Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.
Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern
https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46
Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up
The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.
I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404
Though, to reassure you, the scales of my stakes are such that my fortune, such as it is, is not much affected either way!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/red-sea-crisis-could-shatter-hopes-of-economic-recovery
cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
RFM 37%
CON 27%
LAB 23%
LDM 6%
https://t.co/WBViKofFhs
Go Nigel go!
I don't know if this is relevant to the CBE, and am faintly bemused at the British obsession with these baubles. It really isn't the biggest issue in the whole scandal, not even in the top 10.
She chose the Fareham & Waterlooville seat, correctly thinking that it would be a safer Tory one. I see Paul Holmes has done a chicken run from Eastleigh. Notable that a number of Tory members were unhappy about the selection.
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/conservatives-in-fareham-deeply-concerned-after-being-turned-away-from-voting-for-hamble-valley-candidate-4145790
PLus the instant response is to return with all the approving annual reports and other validations, you know, like CBEs. And get one of those barrister chappies to ask "You want to strip the pension rights now? After approving everything for years on end?"
The absolute level doesn't matter. You bet at the level you are comfortable with.
Tories cut council funding. Tories cut funding for early years intervention. Tories claim surprise that all these people need funding.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/jan/13/uk-council-bournemouth-christchurch-poole-could-go-bust-due-to-60m-hole-in-special-needs-spending
Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?
With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.
Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
I wouldn't want the law trampled over in the rush for revenge.
Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
Gravano was murdering people, in a large part, to retain control for the Gambino family in the construction rackets.
You couldn’t build anything in New York at that time without making a deal with the Mob.The controlled the unions, trucking, concrete, steel delivery….
The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.
I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
No it’s something else….
Alan Bates letters show Tories ignored the postmasters too
Even when it was clear where the battle over wrongful convictions was heading, the government did not act
By January 2020, Alan Bates was almost at his wits’ end. A month earlier, he and 550 sub-postmasters wrongly persecuted by the Post Office had won a stunning victory in the High Court, with a judge ruling once and for all that the Horizon IT system was defective.
Bates should have been delighted. Instead he was furious at the continued refusal of the government to come to the sub-postmasters’ aid. Despite their victory, the £57 million they received from the Post Office equated to only about £20,000 each after legal costs.
In a letter addressed to Kelly Tolhurst, the ninth postal affairs minister since 2010, Bates said her predecessors had, either “intentionally or by ignorance”, failed to hold the Post Office to account, and their “dismissive responses” had forced the victims to “expose the truth” at great personal cost. He demanded the government pay the sub-postmasters’ legal costs — £47 million in total. Tolhurst refused.
It was typical of the intransigence Bates encountered from 2015, as Conservative ministers in the Department for Business, much like their Liberal Democrat predecessors in the coalition government, failed to shake off a “computer says no” mentality.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alan-bates-letters-show-tories-ignored-the-postmasters-too-jc7bgxmqr
He's bloody awful at managing a ground game, and he'd be outboxxed. Again.
Anyhoo I tell you what is hopecasting, writing a post BTL on PB comparing Biden to recent one term Presidents and forgetting the most recent one term POTUS which is what you recently did.
Another example of what BDS and social media can do to you.
We're going to have a lot of fun with these predictions over the next 12 months.
Here’s another view from my new hotel room which gives you more idea
The answer is truly jarring
Interesting that yesterday our resident Tory was trying to claim, in the middle of smearing Mr Mandelson (as he then was), that it was the Department for Business who put up the Rev Vennells for the award. As if it was some sort of AI or perhaps the nasty civil servants did it and ran away, and there wasn't a Tory within 256 perches when it happened.
It's early.
1) When did you find out?
2) Did you then
a) Organise a coverup, lie etc
b) Do nothing
c) Try and help the SPMs
Ed Davey didn’t know, at the time of the enquiry, because he was lied to. The guilty people - *at that point* - were the chain of those who arranged for him to receive lies.
Think of the knowledge of the scandal spreading upwards in a tree, from the roots.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.