Options
Trump remains clear WH2024 favourite – politicalbetting.com
Trump remains clear WH2024 favourite – politicalbetting.com
Even though 2024 is likely to be the UK election year the US Presidential election is likely to be the biggest political betting event.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Edit: first?
Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true
Don’t trust twitter nowadays
The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?
i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
Benpointer · September 18, 2023 · Home› General
Apols if this has already been mentioned but if Biden has decided not to stand again he's not going to announce that until February at the earliest is he?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4538942#Comment_4538942
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)
Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
Lab: 46% (+3)
Lib Dem: 10% (=)
Reform UK: 9% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
Not sure: 46% (+3)
https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?
Tories sink, with Labour double.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1743384856002748782?t=KGqaxBQkrvPmOfTVdmJQFw&s=19
Can't see him not getting sacked.
Starmer faces questions over why he failed to intervene in Post Office scandal
Why hasn't the CPS been transparent and disclosed the cases it worked on? It seems to be hiding behind the defence that the Post Office conducted many of the prosecutions.
https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744667538657546648?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/joe-biden-bridge-new-generation-of-leaders/index.html
Also a reminder that he only won the nomination because after he won the South Carolina primary there was a possibility that Sanders would win, hence other 'moderates' dropping out and endorsing Biden.
I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/
I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
Why hasn't the CPS been transparent and disclosed the cases it worked on? It seems to be
hiding behind the defencecorrectly pointing out that the Post Office conductedmanynearly all of the prosecutions.Why didn't innumerable Tory Attorneys General, as Starmer's boss, stop the prosecutions?
Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.
I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/09/france-new-prime-minister-emmanuel-macron-europe-live-news-updates
Trump holds 65-point lead over DeSantis in Nevada GOP caucus: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396135-trump-holds-65-point-lead-over-desantis-in-nevada-gop-caucus-poll/
Golly
But getting a sitting first term president to step down is a rare thing indeed; rarer still if they haven't been a disaster in office.
“If China invades Taiwan, it would cost world economy $10 trillion”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-invades-taiwan-it-would-cost-world-economy-10-trillion
As it was, the music stopped when he was holding the time-bomb, to mix metaphors. Those are the breaks.
Trump, whose record in business and public is dismal by contrast, is happy to play Coolidge in office and hope someone else is around when the reckoning comes.
First, Ruy Teixeira on Biden's strategic error:
"But there was a catch. After he clinched the nomination, he felt it was necessary to incorporate the views of the party’s left into his campaign’s policy stances and outlook. Usually, candidates try to move toward the center ahead of a general election campaign. But Biden did the reverse. He formed six “unity task forces” jointly coordinated by Biden and Sanders campaign figures, covering climate change, criminal justice reform, the economy, education, health care and immigration."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/03/trump-biden-again-2024-repeat-stuck/
Second, Kathleen Parker on the case for Haley:
"In addition to risking a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021, a Trump loss would leave us with the elderly Joe Biden in the presidency and the painful probability that he won’t live to complete his second term. And you know what that means. The single strongest argument against Biden’s reelection is Vice President Harris.
. . .
Thus, we are left with Haley and DeSantis. My view is that Haley is far and above the best pick for the jobs of chief executive and commander in chief. Like DeSantis, she has been a governor — South Carolina, where she was popular enough to be reelected. She left that job to become Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, where she was a natural. Articulate, knowledgeable and a quick study, she entered and left the position as a polished pro."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/05/nikki-haley-president-iowa-new-hampshire-south-carolina/
In contrast to Haley, Parker says, Ron De Santis seems "seems a man unfamiliar with his own skin."
(For the record: In 2020 I would have voted for Biden, had he chosen someone competent for vice president. But he may be too into identity politics, and Harris does check three big identity boxes. He shoudl have picked someone like Klobuchar or Hickenlooper.)
So the conflicting reports may reflect a real conflict in Biden’s team, and indeed in Biden’s increasingly skull-like head
Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.
That could well be popcorntastic.
Kamala Harris’ 2009 book “Smart on Crime,” for example, carried a message that I think was well-suited to a politically ambitious District Attorney in 2009, but that turned out to be awkward for a politically ambitious United States Senator in 2019. Today, though, the politics of crime have very much reverted back to something resembling the 2009 situation, and I think the old “Kamala is a Cop” persona would be welcome, if she wants to bring it back.
The murder rate is falling sharply this year, which is great news, but something Joe Biden seems to feel awkward bragging about.
Harris, as an actual prosecutor, really does have a formula for talking about why arresting criminals is good and fighting crime is important. She’s also weathered political controversy in the past for her tough stance on truancy and absenteeism in schools. Back in 2019, I think that struck a lot of people as a weird issue. But with school attendance now a national crisis, it’s worth addressing.
As I’ve written previously, while legal abortion always polls well, it polls even better if you use the old Bill Clinton “safe, legal, and rare” framing. On some level, I think that just goes to show that Joe Biden should revert to the more popular Democratic message. But I get that it would be contentious as a coalition-management issue. For Harris, a woman, it would be an easier sell.
And while I know everyone felt a little exhausted after Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, we shouldn’t underplay the element of genuine excitement and hunger to shatter the glass ceiling. I don’t think a hypothetical Harris presidential campaign should make that their central message (I actually don't think she should say it at all), but it would generate a burst of enthusiasm in at least some quarters.
I think part of her problem is that she's not sure whether she needs to optimize for a primary or not, so she's mostly keeping a low profile. What she really needs is for Biden to retire before November, or better die. She'd get at least a month of good media that she could use to turn her image around.
Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
It's Trump vs Biden and that's an end to it.
I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.
But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.
Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
source: https://counciloncj.org/did-violent-crime-go-up-or-down-last-year-yes-it-did/
So, it is not obviously irrational for American voters to think that crime is increasing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001v3dw
Imagine the chaos
One theory being canvassed is that the pandemic screwed their production line reliability, many key staff left and weren’t replaced, etc
That kinda makes sense but then why didn’t the same happen to Airbus?
He was pretty bitter towards Roosevelt - partly that was fair because he ran a pretty rough campaign in 1932, but to an extent it was just an unwinnable election. But he lived plenty long enough to broadly get over and have a long career as an elder statesman, albeit very much not a national treasure - indeed, he had two decades as the only living ex-President, which must be a record.
However much it must have rankled at times to rank as a lower table President, partly due to circumstance, I have little doubt it would have been preferable to him over dying wondering and forgotten.
He has probably already decided in my opinion so I'd suggest the five likely options in order are:
Plans to stand regardless, health events take that down to 90%
Plans to stand as long as Trump the candidate, health events and SC ruling take that down to 80%
100% not standing
Genuinely undecided
Plans to stand as long as polling plausible, health events and polling take that down to 80%
Which reminds me
Jeffrey Epstein lawyer Alan Dershowitz says Duke of York made mistake in not fighting Virginia Giuffre claims
Jeffrey Epstein’s former lawyer believes that the Duke of York was pressured by the late Queen into paying millions to settle the civil sexual assault brought against him by Virginia Giuffre.
Alan Dershowitz, who worked for Epstein from 2008, said that he felt sorry for Prince Andrew and believed the duke had made a “terrible mistake” by not fighting the case in court.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeffrey-epstein-list-prince-andrew-sex-tape-donald-trump-girls-files-hj5gs2z7w
Starmer fans please explain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIX2nXeKW0M&ab_channel=ZeihanonGeopolitics
It ought to be "ministers scramble to cover their arses, having sat on them for a decade, doing nothing."
Heh.
Met Police confirm willingness to open investigation into any crime for which you gather all the evidence and make a four-part TV drama
https://newsthump.com/2024/01/07/met-police-confirm-willingness-to-open-investigation-into-any-crime-for-which-you-gather-all-the-evidence-and-make-a-four-part-tv-drama/
Unlike Blackburn:
'I told police who my burglar was - but they did nothing'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67861416
But a straw in the wind for antisocial parking, from Cheshire:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckm7k34k2dxo