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Trump remains clear WH2024 favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Andy_JS said:

    "Complacent’ Ed Davey faces growing calls to quit over role in Post Office scandal

    Liberal Democrat leader has faced criticism since it emerged that he turned down request to meet campaigner Alan Bates in 2010"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/09/lib-dem-ed-davey-faces-calls-resignation-post-office-scanda/

    The Boris Fanzine is calling for Davey's nuts on a silver platter. Well I'll go to the foot of our stairs!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    MPs question Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron - Foreign Affairs Committee - 9 January 2024
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkJXhNm-Vf0

    David Cameron being questioned and livestreamed for the next two hours.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Leon said:

    So you all look a bit stupid now. Sorry about that

    Step away from that mirror!
  • Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited January 9

    Leon said:

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
    Not so fast. I have worked in companies and remote correction of errors either by the system or branch input errors is common place. If the amendment were fraudulent then becomes the issue. By the sounds of it, on the balance of probability...
    But if those "corrections" are all in the same direction?
    That should be a sign.

    As would not recording the corrections and labelling them as such.

    Typically, on the systems I work on, we never change records. An account would be a series of transaction records. A correction is another transaction, labelled as such. So you have a clear history of each and every change, along with who, why and when.
    The can be a need for data patches - corrections to data that cannot be resolved by a further transaction - typically caused by a software error.

    In my retail banking experience the controls around those patches are immense. Those controls include: formal request and management sign-off before the change is done, segregation of duties (the instigator and the implementer of the patch are different people), logging of the timing of the patch and the before and after position, independent checking that the patch has been applied correctly...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited January 9
    rcs1000 said:
    Sununu's endorsement is worth quite a bit in NH I think. She'll need similar everywhere else - but can't see it happening.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited January 9

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Didn't know that story, his explanation (on that link) and apology there makes sense to me, that he wasn't intending to be racist.

    Racist people make racist stereotypes because that's how they think and operate.

    Non-racist people can by accident because they're not thinking that way and mean something entirely innocuous.

    A racist who does it, does it on purpose and will continue to do it, repeatedly.

    A non-racist person will get embarrassed and apologise.
    Yes, the fact that Baker (a lifelong leftwinger FWIW, if anything) has never made any racist comments before or since would suggest that it was a genuine mistake. His apology was instant and heartfelt. It is a shame that his career was ruined for what was an isolated incident.
    Baker is leftwing, which is why I was surprised our Wokefinder General was batting for him.

    Perhaps Markle shaming is more important than Woke shaming.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    edited January 9

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    Interesting, but wasn't this revealed on the 2015 Panorama programme?

    At 15 mins.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3by7G0VQ3A
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Didn't know that story, his explanation (on that link) and apology there makes sense to me, that he wasn't intending to be racist.

    Racist people make racist stereotypes because that's how they think and operate.

    Non-racist people can by accident because they're not thinking that way and mean something entirely innocuous.

    A racist who does it, does it on purpose and will continue to do it, repeatedly.

    A non-racist person will get embarrassed and apologise.
    Yes, the fact that Baker (a lifelong leftwinger FWIW, if anything) has never made any racist comments before or since would suggest that it was a genuine mistake. His apology was instant and heartfelt. It is a shame that his career was ruined for what was an isolated incident.
    Left-wingers can be just as racist as right-wingers IMO. The targets may be different; but I think Corbyn and Corbynism derailed the idea that only right-wingers can be racist.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    I don’t think that’s right. Yes, deadlines have passed but Biden could still withdraw pre-/ at the Convention and so a new candidate would have to be found. The simple fact is that, if Biden is still polling badly vs Trump come next May / June, the apparatus will swing into motion and there will be plenty of reasons given why an ‘extraordinary’ set of circumstances mean the rules have to be circumvented.
    What apparatus?
    The Democratic Party does not want to risk Trump winning, which is exactly what it looks like now and there is no reason to suggest why that may change.

    You may want to ask yourself why Obama spends so much time in Washington DC when the convention amongst US Presidents is that they leave DC when they retire.

    The Democratic Party is not going to risk Trump getting back in.
    What is this 'Democratic Party' of which you speak? If Biden has close to 100% of the delegates at the convention - his delegates, pledged to him and in many cases bound by party rules or even law to vote for him - how exactly are these shadowy party leaders going to replace him?

    There is no Democratic Party independent of the senior Democrat figures themselves. And it can't "not risk" Trump getting back in. That's down to the public. If they wanted a different candidate, they need a time machine (or a serious health issue) now.
    Read what many in the Democratic Party are suggesting namely Biden needs to step down and don’t seem too fussed about what the rules are. They are easy to find - just go on The Hill, The Messenger, Politico or the likes of Salon or Vox for something more left wing. Now they may be wrong and you are right but they do not seem too bothered about the rules argument.

    The general view is that, if it is going to happen, it will happen at the Convention where the various candidates will jockey for Biden’s pledges and a candidate will be selected
    They can suggest what they like. I'm sure there are Tory activists who'd like Sunak to stand down. Doesn't mean they can do anything about it.

    There seems to be a misconception here of what the Convention is. It's not a gathering of the Democrats' great and good (though they will be there); it's as much a stage-managed electoral college as, well, the Electoral College. And Biden will have pretty much every elected delegate pledged to him. It will not be a contest; it will be a coronation. Biden will have been accepted as the Democratic candidate long before July, by media, public and party colleagues alike.

    'Not being fussed about the rules' is flying in the face of Johnson's Iron Law of Politics.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    edited January 9

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    I don’t think that’s right. Yes, deadlines have passed but Biden could still withdraw pre-/ at the Convention and so a new candidate would have to be found. The simple fact is that, if Biden is still polling badly vs Trump come next May / June, the apparatus will swing into motion and there will be plenty of reasons given why an ‘extraordinary’ set of circumstances mean the rules have to be circumvented.
    It is of course entirely possible for a candidate to withdraw at the convention after having gone through the primary process. It has been open for every nominee to do so in recent US political history. But it would be an aberration, and it could create more turmoil/problems than it solves. In modern time neither party in the US has ignored the will of the primary voters, nor have the “apparatuses” in each party denied the nominee a chance to fight the GE. Could it happen that someone tries to get Biden to quit, and he decides to? Yes. Will it happen? Exceptionally unlikely.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    rcs1000 said:
    This is the one that should be looked at:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    A steady rise from 45% this time last year to 62% now. With Republican voters every scandal is just another opportunity to play victim against the libs and he has his schtick down to a tee. Only the courts can plausibly save us from his nomination, he should be 1.1.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Didn't know that story, his explanation (on that link) and apology there makes sense to me, that he wasn't intending to be racist.

    Racist people make racist stereotypes because that's how they think and operate.

    Non-racist people can by accident because they're not thinking that way and mean something entirely innocuous.

    A racist who does it, does it on purpose and will continue to do it, repeatedly.

    A non-racist person will get embarrassed and apologise.
    Yes, the fact that Baker (a lifelong leftwinger FWIW, if anything) has never made any racist comments before or since would suggest that it was a genuine mistake. His apology was instant and heartfelt. It is a shame that his career was ruined for what was an isolated incident.
    I assume media celebrities aren't really the focus of the NU10K thing anyway. I understand it's about senior managerial people in public, private and 3rd sector jobs. That makes some sense.

    I am also pretty sure Baker made a genuine unintended error.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Sununu's endorsement is worth quite a bit in NH I think. She'll need similar everywhere else - but can't see it happening.
    She needs:

    (a) to be clear second in Iowa
    (b) to win in New Hampshire
    (c) to win in South Carolina

    It's not impossible, but it's a difficult path.

    However, I would not underestimate the impact of her winning an early state on the race race. We know from polling early last year that there are lots of Republicans who are prepared to back someone other than Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Didn't know that story, his explanation (on that link) and apology there makes sense to me, that he wasn't intending to be racist.

    Racist people make racist stereotypes because that's how they think and operate.

    Non-racist people can by accident because they're not thinking that way and mean something entirely innocuous.

    A racist who does it, does it on purpose and will continue to do it, repeatedly.

    A non-racist person will get embarrassed and apologise.
    Yes, the fact that Baker (a lifelong leftwinger FWIW, if anything) has never made any racist comments before or since would suggest that it was a genuine mistake. His apology was instant and heartfelt. It is a shame that his career was ruined for what was an isolated incident.
    Left-wingers can be just as racist as right-wingers IMO. The targets may be different; but I think Corbyn and Corbynism derailed the idea that only right-wingers can be racist.
    Hence why I wrote “FWIW, if anything”.

    Regardless of his politics, he has no record of being racist before or since, and had enjoyed a long, outspoken career up to that point.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Sununu's endorsement is worth quite a bit in NH I think. She'll need similar everywhere else - but can't see it happening.
    Trump will, I'm sure, be entirely sanguine about losing to a woman and take defeat with good grace, if it happens.

    Not that it'll affect the big picture but if Haley does do very well in NH, we could be down to just two candidates thereafter, which will make it harder for Trump to avoid primary debates thereafter, especially if he's actually lost a state.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    edited January 9

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    He is running. It's a fact. Yet the betting implies there's a 1 in 3 chance he pulls out. That's a steal (to back him) if it only reflects health risk.

    But I think it reflects something else in addition. That he might pull out if it's not Trump. That's why I'm not backing him and prefer to just lay Trump.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,169
    Leon said:

    So you all look a bit stupid now. Sorry about that

    Biden has pulled out?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    I don’t think that’s right. Yes, deadlines have passed but Biden could still withdraw pre-/ at the Convention and so a new candidate would have to be found. The simple fact is that, if Biden is still polling badly vs Trump come next May / June, the apparatus will swing into motion and there will be plenty of reasons given why an ‘extraordinary’ set of circumstances mean the rules have to be circumvented.
    What apparatus?
    The Democratic Party does not want to risk Trump winning, which is exactly what it looks like now and there is no reason to suggest why that may change.

    You may want to ask yourself why Obama spends so much time in Washington DC when the convention amongst US Presidents is that they leave DC when they retire.

    The Democratic Party is not going to risk Trump getting back in.
    What is this 'Democratic Party' of which you speak? If Biden has close to 100% of the delegates at the convention - his delegates, pledged to him and in many cases bound by party rules or even law to vote for him - how exactly are these shadowy party leaders going to replace him?

    There is no Democratic Party independent of the senior Democrat figures themselves. And it can't "not risk" Trump getting back in. That's down to the public. If they wanted a different candidate, they need a time machine (or a serious health issue) now.
    Read what many in the Democratic Party are suggesting namely Biden needs to step down and don’t seem too fussed about what the rules are. They are easy to find - just go on The Hill, The Messenger, Politico or the likes of Salon or Vox for something more left wing. Now they may be wrong and you are right but they do not seem too bothered about the rules argument.

    The general view is that, if it is going to happen, it will happen at the Convention where the various candidates will jockey for Biden’s pledges and a candidate will be selected
    They can suggest what they like. I'm sure there are Tory activists who'd like Sunak to stand down. Doesn't mean they can do anything about it.

    There seems to be a misconception here of what the Convention is. It's not a gathering of the Democrats' great and good (though they will be there); it's as much a stage-managed electoral college as, well, the Electoral College. And Biden will have pretty much every elected delegate pledged to him. It will not be a contest; it will be a coronation. Biden will have been accepted as the Democratic candidate long before July, by media, public and party colleagues alike.

    'Not being fussed about the rules' is flying in the face of Johnson's Iron Law of Politics.
    But...

    If, say, Biden decided in June that he could not stand (a new health issue maybe), he would presumably announce that, and all those delegate pledged to him would do what exactly?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    So you all look a bit stupid now. Sorry about that

    Biden has pulled out?
    I should think so - he's a Catholic after all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    So you all look a bit stupid now. Sorry about that

    Biden has pulled out?
    Not something we can attribute to Boris Johnson.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    Forgive me for being a naive as Danny Baker clearly was but... what's the significance of these tunnels?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    So you all look a bit stupid now. Sorry about that

    Biden has pulled out?
    I should think so - he's a Catholic after all.
    Not allowed either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Every_Sperm_Is_Sacred
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699

    Leon said:

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
    Not so fast. I have worked in companies and remote correction of errors either by the system or branch input errors is common place. If the amendment were fraudulent then becomes the issue. By the sounds of it, on the balance of probability...
    But if those "corrections" are all in the same direction?
    That should be a sign.

    As would not recording the corrections and labelling them as such.

    Typically, on the systems I work on, we never change records. An account would be a series of transaction records. A correction is another transaction, labelled as such. So you have a clear history of each and every change, along with who, why and when.
    The can be a need for data patches - corrections to data that cannot be resolved by a further transaction - typically caused by a software error.

    In my retail banking experience the controls around those patches are immense. Those controls include: formal request and management sign-off before the change is done, segregation of duties (the instigator and the implementer of the patch are different people), logging of the timing of the patch and the before and after position, independent checking that the patch has been applied correctly...
    Working in finance IT myself, that level of control is routine for all patches running to live (or is where I work) - indeed, there's more, from documenting testing evidence to securely logging the fault and the proposed fix. For something that directly amends transaction data (rather than inserting additional corrective records), then there'd be extra checks on top, for example documenting the calculations on the corrected figure and linking the incident to a problem record against which the system correction to the underlying fault was being developed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
    It’s not helping that the NYC Jewish community is already providing different explanations


    1. They were dug during Covid so the Jews could still worship
    2. They were dug in the last six months by weird ultra-Orthodox
    3. They are a way of “extending real estate” (??)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699

    Leon said:

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
    Not so fast. I have worked in companies and remote correction of errors either by the system or branch input errors is common place. If the amendment were fraudulent then becomes the issue. By the sounds of it, on the balance of probability...
    But if those "corrections" are all in the same direction?
    That should be a sign.

    As would not recording the corrections and labelling them as such.

    Typically, on the systems I work on, we never change records. An account would be a series of transaction records. A correction is another transaction, labelled as such. So you have a clear history of each and every change, along with who, why and when.
    The can be a need for data patches - corrections to data that cannot be resolved by a further transaction - typically caused by a software error.

    In my retail banking experience the controls around those patches are immense. Those controls include: formal request and management sign-off before the change is done, segregation of duties (the instigator and the implementer of the patch are different people), logging of the timing of the patch and the before and after position, independent checking that the patch has been applied correctly...
    Working in finance IT myself, that level of control is routine for all patches running to live (or is where I work) - indeed, there's more, from documenting testing evidence to securely logging the fault and the proposed fix. For something that directly amends transaction data (rather than inserting additional corrective records), then there'd be extra checks on top, for example documenting the calculations on the corrected figure and linking the incident to a problem record against which the system correction to the underlying fault was being developed.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,661
    edited January 9

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Claire Wright - who ran the Tories close as an Independent in East Devon in 2017 and 2019 - is backing Richard Foord, current Honiton and Tiverton LibDem MP, in the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat. He's up against Simon Jupp, the current Tory MP for East Devon.

    As far as I can see, Honiton and Sidmouth is usually given to the Tories in seat projections for the next GE. If I'm right, that could create betting opportunities. With Wright on board, I'd make the LibDems the big favourites. But, as ever, DYOR.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    edited January 9

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Didn't know that story, his explanation (on that link) and apology there makes sense to me, that he wasn't intending to be racist.

    Racist people make racist stereotypes because that's how they think and operate.

    Non-racist people can by accident because they're not thinking that way and mean something entirely innocuous.

    A racist who does it, does it on purpose and will continue to do it, repeatedly.

    A non-racist person will get embarrassed and apologise.
    I did know the story and agree entirely with you, as I did then, because at the time it made me think how if I was in the public domain (thank god I'm not) how I could blunder into something like that, particularly as I am not too politically correct.

    I have to say it often works the other way with me also. Some Anti-Semitic cartoons in the past have gone over my head because I didn't realise the person being attacked was Jewish probably because I don't give two hoots whether they are or not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    By recently you mean at least ten years.

    I flew Delta before Christmas and was relieved the plane was an Airbus. BA after Christmas was a rattly old 777. I was comforted knowing it had been maintained by engineers in the Vale of Glamorgan.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    edited January 9
    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    They've forgotten to focus on the nuts and bolts of their business.
    Boeing management need to be shown the door.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371
    Quite a sad video: the few civilians still living in Avdiika.

    https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1744695446981804327
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    Forgive me for being a naive as Danny Baker clearly was but... what's the significance of these tunnels?
    The Jews are hiding pineapple pizza in the tunnels
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    Leon said:

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
    Not so fast. I have worked in companies and remote correction of errors either by the system or branch input errors is common place. If the amendment were fraudulent then becomes the issue. By the sounds of it, on the balance of probability...
    But if those "corrections" are all in the same direction?
    That should be a sign.

    As would not recording the corrections and labelling them as such.

    Typically, on the systems I work on, we never change records. An account would be a series of transaction records. A correction is another transaction, labelled as such. So you have a clear history of each and every change, along with who, why and when.
    The can be a need for data patches - corrections to data that cannot be resolved by a further transaction - typically caused by a software error.

    In my retail banking experience the controls around those patches are immense. Those controls include: formal request and management sign-off before the change is done, segregation of duties (the instigator and the implementer of the patch are different people), logging of the timing of the patch and the before and after position, independent checking that the patch has been applied correctly...
    Working in finance IT myself, that level of control is routine for all patches running to live (or is where I work) - indeed, there's more, from documenting testing evidence to securely logging the fault and the proposed fix. For something that directly amends transaction data (rather than inserting additional corrective records), then there'd be extra checks on top, for example documenting the calculations on the corrected figure and linking the incident to a problem record against which the system correction to the underlying fault was being developed.
    Yes agree with all of that.

    It wasn't always so though. Some of my early days working in financial IT in the 80s attitudes were much more lax.

    The depiction of the Fujitsu support room in the ITV room however is set in 2008. By the standards of the time, they did look like a bunch of out of control cowboys.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    They've forgotten to focus on the nuts and bolts of their business.
    Boeing management need to be shown the door.
    Maybe the window?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    Forgive me for being a naive as Danny Baker clearly was but... what's the significance of these tunnels?
    The Jews are hiding pineapple pizza in the tunnels
    OMG - no! Say it ain't so.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,661

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    Forgive me for being a naive as Danny Baker clearly was but... what's the significance of these tunnels?
    The Jews are hiding pineapple pizza in the tunnels
    Which lead all the way to the Clinton pizza parlour :open_mouth:
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    edited January 9
    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    They've forgotten to focus on the nuts and bolts of their business.
    Boeing management need to be shown the door.
    That might leave a few gaps to fill.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371

    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    They've forgotten to focus on the nuts and bolts of their business.
    Boeing management need to be shown the door.
    Maybe the window?
    Are they Russian?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    edited January 9

    Leon said:

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
    Not so fast. I have worked in companies and remote correction of errors either by the system or branch input errors is common place. If the amendment were fraudulent then becomes the issue. By the sounds of it, on the balance of probability...
    But if those "corrections" are all in the same direction?
    That should be a sign.

    As would not recording the corrections and labelling them as such.

    Typically, on the systems I work on, we never change records. An account would be a series of transaction records. A correction is another transaction, labelled as such. So you have a clear history of each and every change, along with who, why and when.
    The can be a need for data patches - corrections to data that cannot be resolved by a further transaction - typically caused by a software error.

    In my retail banking experience the controls around those patches are immense. Those controls include: formal request and management sign-off before the change is done, segregation of duties (the instigator and the implementer of the patch are different people), logging of the timing of the patch and the before and after position, independent checking that the patch has been applied correctly...
    Working in finance IT myself, that level of control is routine for all patches running to live (or is where I work) - indeed, there's more, from documenting testing evidence to securely logging the fault and the proposed fix. For something that directly amends transaction data (rather than inserting additional corrective records), then there'd be extra checks on top, for example documenting the calculations on the corrected figure and linking the incident to a problem record against which the system correction to the underlying fault was being developed.
    Indeed. In fact I can’t remember the last time we updated production data like that in a system. All the fixes are transactional, if it’s possible.

    Just thinking about altering prod data worries me.

    EDIT : on many systems, the account connecting application(s) to the database has delete and update disabled. So to alter database records would require connecting with a different account. I really like that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    They've forgotten to focus on the nuts and bolts of their business.
    Boeing management need to be shown the door.
    Maybe the window?
    Are they Russian?
    Well, they certainly hurried to outsource manufacturing and give themselves big bonuses.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
    Yes, just too crass to have been intentional. Fwiw I bought his explanation. The chimp was in reference to a circus, the whole birth of baby thing being (to him) redolent of the Royals as performing animals.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
    It’s not helping that the NYC Jewish community is already providing different explanations


    1. They were dug during Covid so the Jews could still worship
    2. They were dug in the last six months by weird ultra-Orthodox
    3. They are a way of “extending real estate” (??)
    You have baited this alternative thread hook twice this lunchtime and no one is being reeled in.

    Come on, you can do better than this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Joey Barton, what can you say?

    Joey Barton facing Government and legal action over ‘dangerous’ social media posts

    Over the last month, Barton has taken to X to wage an increasingly personal campaign against women pundits working in football


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/01/09/joey-barton-social-media-x-legal-action/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
    It’s not helping that the NYC Jewish community is already providing different explanations


    1. They were dug during Covid so the Jews could still worship
    2. They were dug in the last six months by weird ultra-Orthodox
    3. They are a way of “extending real estate” (??)
    You have baited this alternative thread hook twice this lunchtime and no one is being reeled in.

    Come on, you can do better than this.
    What? It’s a true story, it’s a news story; and it is all over social media. And naturally thousands of people are seizing on it to advance conspiracy theories
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
    Yes, just too crass to have been intentional. Fwiw I bought his explanation. The chimp was in reference to a circus, the whole birth of baby thing being (to him) redolent of the Royals as performing animals.
    A moment of agreement: Baker didn’t mean it

    Tho I do hope it is not his lefty persona which is pushing you to give him the benefit of the doubt
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,129
    edited January 9

    Claire Wright - who ran the Tories close as an Independent in East Devon in 2017 and 2019 - is backing Richard Foord, current Honiton and Tiverton LibDem MP, in the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat. He's up against Simon Jupp, the current Tory MP for East Devon.

    As far as I can see, Honiton and Sidmouth is usually given to the Tories in seat projections for the next GE. If I'm right, that could create betting opportunities. With Wright on board, I'd make the LibDems the big favourites. But, as ever, DYOR.

    That isn't new news - she had already said (well before the Tiverton & Honiton by-election) that she wasn't standing again, backed Foord at the by-election, and has been consistently supportive of him.

    Bit of a shame she's not going again. Pretty remarkable to get 25k votes as an independent in 2019, in a seat the Tories have always won at a canter, even in the nadir of 1997.

    The seat is pretty much carved up by boundary changes, though, and she'd have had to reach a whole load of new voters had she stood again. Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton go in with a chunk of Exeter, creating an intriguing battle in itself. Sidmouth and Ottery join the Honiton bit of Tiverton and Honiton. A lot will depend on how far the Wright vote transfers, as you say. She was always essentially a centre-left Remainer in reality, but how many of her voters didn't really get that and were essentially Tories voting for that nice, apolitical lady?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    I don’t think that’s right. Yes, deadlines have passed but Biden could still withdraw pre-/ at the Convention and so a new candidate would have to be found. The simple fact is that, if Biden is still polling badly vs Trump come next May / June, the apparatus will swing into motion and there will be plenty of reasons given why an ‘extraordinary’ set of circumstances mean the rules have to be circumvented.
    What apparatus?
    The Democratic Party does not want to risk Trump winning, which is exactly what it looks like now and there is no reason to suggest why that may change.

    You may want to ask yourself why Obama spends so much time in Washington DC when the convention amongst US Presidents is that they leave DC when they retire.

    The Democratic Party is not going to risk Trump getting back in.
    What is this 'Democratic Party' of which you speak? If Biden has close to 100% of the delegates at the convention - his delegates, pledged to him and in many cases bound by party rules or even law to vote for him - how exactly are these shadowy party leaders going to replace him?

    There is no Democratic Party independent of the senior Democrat figures themselves. And it can't "not risk" Trump getting back in. That's down to the public. If they wanted a different candidate, they need a time machine (or a serious health issue) now.
    Read what many in the Democratic Party are suggesting namely Biden needs to step down and don’t seem too fussed about what the rules are. They are easy to find - just go on The Hill, The Messenger, Politico or the likes of Salon or Vox for something more left wing. Now they may be wrong and you are right but they do not seem too bothered about the rules argument.

    The general view is that, if it is going to happen, it will happen at the Convention where the various candidates will jockey for Biden’s pledges and a candidate will be selected
    They can suggest what they like. I'm sure there are Tory activists who'd like Sunak to stand down. Doesn't mean they can do anything about it.

    There seems to be a misconception here of what the Convention is. It's not a gathering of the Democrats' great and good (though they will be there); it's as much a stage-managed electoral college as, well, the Electoral College. And Biden will have pretty much every elected delegate pledged to him. It will not be a contest; it will be a coronation. Biden will have been accepted as the Democratic candidate long before July, by media, public and party colleagues alike.

    'Not being fussed about the rules' is flying in the face of Johnson's Iron Law of Politics.
    But...

    If, say, Biden decided in June that he could not stand (a new health issue maybe), he would presumably announce that, and all those delegate pledged to him would do what exactly?
    If, say, Biden had a heart attack in June - enough to cause him to withdraw from running again but not to stand down as president, as he could still do the job for the time being - then he would have a choice between recommending an alternative to his delegates, or freeing them up to vote as they saw fit - or some combination of the two. Presumably there'd have to be some arrangement whereby potential candidates could lobby, campaign and so on.

    That said, I'd still expect the first ballot to go ahead on the primary count, not least to satisfy states where rules bind delegates to candidates. Biden would then decline the nomination and free up delegates.

    But that's far from a "30%+" chance.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    Joey Barton, what can you say?

    Joey Barton facing Government and legal action over ‘dangerous’ social media posts

    Over the last month, Barton has taken to X to wage an increasingly personal campaign against women pundits working in football


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/01/09/joey-barton-social-media-x-legal-action/

    Parlez vous Franglais?
  • .

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    I didn't mean for your wife, but for someone who works in the media to think she was white I find harder to believe. I find the idea that he wasn't thinking about race at all much easier to believe.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    My favourite so far on the Post Office IT Enquiry

    "There were no development standards or methodology, coding practices, peer reviews, unit testing standards, design specifications in place.”

    They obviously were training for jobs in Boeing. Probably the Starliner project.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
    Yes, just too crass to have been intentional. Fwiw I bought his explanation. The chimp was in reference to a circus, the whole birth of baby thing being (to him) redolent of the Royals as performing animals.
    A moment of agreement: Baker didn’t mean it

    Tho I do hope it is not his lefty persona which is pushing you to give him the benefit of the doubt
    It's the fact that he was for years a whimsical surrealist, devoid of any such obvious malice (his Saturday radio gig used to be a great listen).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The big story will be that they subcontracted the job to Hamas.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
    Yes, just too crass to have been intentional. Fwiw I bought his explanation. The chimp was in reference to a circus, the whole birth of baby thing being (to him) redolent of the Royals as performing animals.
    A moment of agreement: Baker didn’t mean it

    Tho I do hope it is not his lefty persona which is pushing you to give him the benefit of the doubt
    It's the fact that he was for years a whimsical surrealist, devoid of any such obvious malice (his Saturday radio gig used to be a great listen).
    Agree on all points, including his Saturday show
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    At the point at which she had a child, after the wedding where all the (mostly positive) fuss was made about her black heritage? Early on, sure, but harder to believe after all that.

    FWIW, I do think Baker was really stupid rather than racist. If racist, he'd have to have been also really stupid to think he could possibly get away with it.
    Yes, just too crass to have been intentional. Fwiw I bought his explanation. The chimp was in reference to a circus, the whole birth of baby thing being (to him) redolent of the Royals as performing animals.
    A moment of agreement: Baker didn’t mean it

    Tho I do hope it is not his lefty persona which is pushing you to give him the benefit of the doubt
    No it's not that. His persona to me is more cheeky chappy w/c cockney (which I don't love tbh). One imagines him bantering with Ray Winstone in a beer garden while not properly controlling their dogs.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TimS said:

    Another very interesting set of stats from JBM at the FT, this time on partisan gaps in trust of media outlets.

    https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1744716508570550695?s=20

    Main story is trust in the media is way less divided along partisan lines in the UK than the US, where there is virtually no consensus.

    But also interesting to see the 4 media sources in the UK with the biggest partisan gap in trust. They are exactly as you'd expect: The Guardian, The Telegraph, Daily Mail, and GB News.

    Further down the list Channel 4 has a notably large gap although it's overall got high levels of trust, and the Express and Sun have surprisingly small gaps, neither being much trusted by anyone.

    The funniest overlap is that conservative voters trust GB News more than the Guardian.

    Yer a hard man. AND hard to please!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    edited January 9

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The big story will be that they subcontracted the job to Hamas.....
    You mean that Hamas was making the pineapple pizzas? I know they are war criminals etc, but I thought there were *some* limits. Even ISIS....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    edited January 9
    In a world where it is the norm to jump to conclusions on the most flimsy of evidence, particularly in relation to people in the media and politicians, it is nice to see the vast majority of people here (regardless of politics) giving Danny Baker the benefit of doubt.

    Having woken up this morning even more angry about the Post Office this has put a smile on my face (at least about PB).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The big story will be that they subcontracted the job to Hamas.....
    I mean, did they have a meeting about it in the ultra-Orthodox synagogue?

    “Guys, we’ve got a problem. People all over the world believe we are a shadowy cabal using mysterious powers to manipulate everything, what can we do?”

    Pause

    “I know. Let’s build a network of tunnels under New York!”

    “Yes! And make them secret….”
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Speaking of calling people "monkeys" and NOT in a nice way, one once mighty GOP politico in the Old Dominion shredded his career by calling a guy "macaca":

    wiki excerpt:

    [Former VA Gov. George] Allen sought re-election in 2006, winning the Republican nomination on August 11, 2006.

    The general election featured three candidates: Allen; the Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb; and Gail Parker, a retired Air Force officer and retired civilian Pentagon budget analyst who ran on the Independent Green Party ballot line. Allen ran a campaign that appealed to cultural, hard right-wing conservatives. [SSI - sound familiar?] . . . .

    On August 11, 2006, at a campaign stop in Breaks, Virginia, near the Kentucky border, Allen twice used the racist slur "macaca" (meaning 'monkey') to refer to the dark-complexioned S. R. Sidarth, who was filming the event as a "tracker" for the opposing Jim Webb campaign. In what was dubbed as his "Macaca moment", Allen said:

    "This fellow here over here with the yellow shirt, Macaca, or whatever his name is. He's with my opponent... Let's give a welcome to Macaca, here. Welcome to America and the real world of Virginia."
    Sidarth, who is of Indian ancestry, was born and raised in Fairfax County, Virginia. The remarks quickly went viral and became a major news item on all of the network and cable television news shows.

    Webb won by approximately a third of a percent – 8,805 votes. Two days after the election, on November 9, 2006, Allen held a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia, announcing that he had conceded the race to Webb and would not seek a recount. His defeat was widely attributed to the remarks made by him on the trail.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Allen_(American_politician)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739

    .

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    I didn't mean for your wife, but for someone who works in the media to think she was white I find harder to believe. I find the idea that he wasn't thinking about race at all much easier to believe.
    I'm sure he was thinking about class, not race.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
    It’s not helping that the NYC Jewish community is already providing different explanations


    1. They were dug during Covid so the Jews could still worship
    2. They were dug in the last six months by weird ultra-Orthodox
    3. They are a way of “extending real estate” (??)
    You have baited this alternative thread hook twice this lunchtime and no one is being reeled in.

    Come on, you can do better than this.
    Just as well Leon never got to hear about the arguments between different subdivisions of the Presbyuterian Kirks about who would keep the kirk at X, Y or Z after the latest split (often combined with a merger). This seems to stem from just such a dispute.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    I have always found Meghan Markle to be a stunningly beautiful woman. I was aware from the offset that she was of mixed heritage. That said who cares about her racial heritage? Well perhaps the print media. "Gorgeous Kate Middleton selects Lillies of the valley for her wedding bouquet. Evil Meghan Markle puts Princess Charlotte's life in peril for a wedding bouquet of toxic Lillies of the valley". Similarly avocados etc, etc.

    I have no doubt Danny Baker is not a racist. Now Danny Baker fronted a football show. He is of my age so should be well aware of the toxicity of disgusting monkey analogies, for example bananas directed at John Barnes, outrageous racism to John and Justin Fashanu. West Brom's trio and Viv Anderson. I would avoid monkey analogies irrespective of the race of the recipient. At best Baker was very clumsy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    edited January 9
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX is understandably EXPLODING about the SECRET JEWISH TUNNELS IN NEW YORK

    You could not design a better meme for the second week of January, 2024

    The surreal videos show that AI will never be able to compete with real life for entertainment value.

    https://x.com/frumtiktok/status/1744521634826854482
    It’s not helping that the NYC Jewish community is already providing different explanations


    1. They were dug during Covid so the Jews could still worship
    2. They were dug in the last six months by weird ultra-Orthodox
    3. They are a way of “extending real estate” (??)
    You have baited this alternative thread hook twice this lunchtime and no one is being reeled in.

    Come on, you can do better than this.
    Just as well Leon never got to hear about the arguments between different subdivisions of the Presbyuterian Kirks about who would keep the kirk at X, Y or Z after the latest split (often combined with a merger). This seems to stem from just such a dispute.
    Ah, I’m glad you’ve sorted all that out, and worked out why they had secret tunnels, because the New York police apparently haven’t got a clue
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    An apparently a bit of problem drinker - rocked up at a party where there was plenty of drinking water. Turned the lot into wine.

    Sometime later, smashed up some local business with his friends.

    It does paint a picture, doesn't it? And the whole absent dad thing is no excuse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    edited January 9
    I remember children being called monkeys all the time at primary school, but since everyone was white it probably wasn't a problem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Chris said:

    .

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    I didn't mean for your wife, but for someone who works in the media to think she was white I find harder to believe. I find the idea that he wasn't thinking about race at all much easier to believe.
    I'm sure he was thinking about class, not race.
    This conversation reminds me of the following. Not sure why.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Loving Trump's attorney in the immunity hearing, arguing that the President could order Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and if not impeached, could not be prosecuted criminally.*
    Actually, that was a hypothetical put to him, but it didn't sway his argument at all.

    Biden might be giving that one consideration, if it flies ?
    He'd be impeached - but it would solve the 'should I run again ?' and 'what about Donald' problems at a stroke.

    *And also, if he were impeached, could not be criminally tried, as that would constitute double jeopardy...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    Does anyone know why Boeing seem to be having so many problems recently?
    Chickens coming home to roost, results of bad bean-counter motivated decisions over recent decades.

    In Seattle, folks believe this crap stems from when Boeing moved it's corporate HQ out of the Emerald City to the Windy City = Chicago.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Andy_JS said:

    I remember children being called monkeys all the time at primary school, but since everyone was white it probably wasn't a problem.

    I grew up in the outskirts of Birmingham. In the 1970s we only had less than half a dozen Afro-Carribean heritage boys at school back then. I bet you can't guess which less than half a dozen boys were referred to as "monkeys" on a regular basis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Eighteenth century values.

    One of the key pieces of Vivek Ramaswamy’s Iowa plan: Free beer
    The 38-year-old candidate has been hosting events for young voters in key states. A lot of attendees have been young men showing up to enjoy free drinks.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-key-pieces-vivek-ramaswamys-iowa-plan-free-beer-rcna132649
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Trump's lawyers voice is unlistenable....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878
    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    Those are archetypal Gen-X, 70s baby names. Probably Jon rather than John. Plus the 5th evangelist Tom and his brother Jamie.

    Plus their girl mates Becky, Liz, Sam and Zoe.
  • Nigelb said:

    Loving Trump's attorney in the immunity hearing, arguing that the President could order Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and if not impeached, could not be prosecuted criminally.*
    Actually, that was a hypothetical put to him, but it didn't sway his argument at all.

    Biden might be giving that one consideration, if it flies ?
    He'd be impeached - but it would solve the 'should I run again ?' and 'what about Donald' problems at a stroke.

    *And also, if he were impeached, could not be criminally tried, as that would constitute double jeopardy...

    Never mind that Nige, this is far better:

    https://nypost.com/2024/01/08/news/trump-co-defendant-alleges-improper-relationship-between-georgia-da-and-prosecutor-demands-indictment-be-thrown-out/amp/

    If that is even remotely true, that would be hilarious

    Ps I did try to link to the NYT piece to not raise your blood pressure but I couldn’t get the link and the Atlantic Constitution doesn’t allow access in Europe).

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    Those are archetypal Gen-X, 70s baby names. Probably Jon rather than John. Plus the 5th evangelist Tom and his brother Jamie.

    Plus their girl mates Becky, Liz, Sam and Zoe.
    What did Toby do to get excluded?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699
    Nigelb said:

    Loving Trump's attorney in the immunity hearing, arguing that the President could order Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and if not impeached, could not be prosecuted criminally.*
    Actually, that was a hypothetical put to him, but it didn't sway his argument at all.

    Biden might be giving that one consideration, if it flies ?
    He'd be impeached - but it would solve the 'should I run again ?' and 'what about Donald' problems at a stroke.

    *And also, if he were impeached, could not be criminally tried, as that would constitute double jeopardy...

    The US constitution explicitly allows for subsequent prosecution - Article I, Section 3, clause 7:

    Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    Eighteenth century values.

    One of the key pieces of Vivek Ramaswamy’s Iowa plan: Free beer
    The 38-year-old candidate has been hosting events for young voters in key states. A lot of attendees have been young men showing up to enjoy free drinks.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-key-pieces-vivek-ramaswamys-iowa-plan-free-beer-rcna132649

    Which would be a violation of election laws in many states (perhaps including Iowa IF caucuses considered an election).

    AND perhaps violation of alcohol laws, for example IF attendees guzzling VR's beer are NOT carded, and persons under 21 are treated.
  • eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    I simply don't get that thinking. Why would there be a 1-in-3 chance that Biden decides not to run again, given that he literally is running again? If there was a time to step back, it was about 3-4 months ago. That would have given potential successors time to arrange primary campaigns and the public the chance to choose someone.

    One of the golden rules of political betting is Understand the Process (alongside understand the people, precedent, public and political culture).

    In this case, many filing deadlines for the primary are long passed. Arkansas, for example, closed in November; California closed in December. If you're not on the ballot, you won't be getting any delegates. It's all very well saying that the field would be wide open if Biden withdrew - yes, in a sense it would - but if he withdrew now it would render the primaries all-but redundant. Biden has decided to run again; this is not an open question any more.
    Absolutely. The breathless “what-iffery” regarding Biden’s candidacy makes little sense now. He is running and the deadlines have passed. Absent a severe health crisis which forces him to withdraw, or death, he is running. The process has started. It’s done.
    I don’t think that’s right. Yes, deadlines have passed but Biden could still withdraw pre-/ at the Convention and so a new candidate would have to be found. The simple fact is that, if Biden is still polling badly vs Trump come next May / June, the apparatus will swing into motion and there will be plenty of reasons given why an ‘extraordinary’ set of circumstances mean the rules have to be circumvented.
    What apparatus?
    The Democratic Party does not want to risk Trump winning, which is exactly what it looks like now and there is no reason to suggest why that may change.

    You may want to ask yourself why Obama spends so much time in Washington DC when the convention amongst US Presidents is that they leave DC when they retire.

    The Democratic Party is not going to risk Trump getting back in.
    What is this 'Democratic Party' of which you speak? If Biden has close to 100% of the delegates at the convention - his delegates, pledged to him and in many cases bound by party rules or even law to vote for him - how exactly are these shadowy party leaders going to replace him?

    There is no Democratic Party independent of the senior Democrat figures themselves. And it can't "not risk" Trump getting back in. That's down to the public. If they wanted a different candidate, they need a time machine (or a serious health issue) now.
    Read what many in the Democratic Party are suggesting namely Biden needs to step down and don’t seem too fussed about what the rules are. They are easy to find - just go on The Hill, The Messenger, Politico or the likes of Salon or Vox for something more left wing. Now they may be wrong and you are right but they do not seem too bothered about the rules argument.

    The general view is that, if it is going to happen, it will happen at the Convention where the various candidates will jockey for Biden’s pledges and a candidate will be selected
    They can suggest what they like. I'm sure there are Tory activists who'd like Sunak to stand down. Doesn't mean they can do anything about it.

    There seems to be a misconception here of what the Convention is. It's not a gathering of the Democrats' great and good (though they will be there); it's as much a stage-managed electoral college as, well, the Electoral College. And Biden will have pretty much every elected delegate pledged to him. It will not be a contest; it will be a coronation. Biden will have been accepted as the Democratic candidate long before July, by media, public and party colleagues alike.

    'Not being fussed about the rules' is flying in the face of Johnson's Iron Law of Politics.
    But...

    If, say, Biden decided in June that he could not stand (a new health issue maybe), he would presumably announce that, and all those delegate pledged to him would do what exactly?
    If, say, Biden had a heart attack in June - enough to cause him to withdraw from running again but not to stand down as president, as he could still do the job for the time being - then he would have a choice between recommending an alternative to his delegates, or freeing them up to vote as they saw fit - or some combination of the two. Presumably there'd have to be some arrangement whereby potential candidates could lobby, campaign and so on.

    That said, I'd still expect the first ballot to go ahead on the primary count, not least to satisfy states where rules bind delegates to candidates. Biden would then decline the nomination and free up delegates.

    But that's far from a "30%+" chance.
    I’ve said before I have got some of the Dem Governors on at 100/1 to 200/1 for such an eventuality - I’m not treating Biden dropping out as a probability (and I don’t think I mentioned 30%+) but, at those odds, I’m more than happy to have a bet.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    I have always found Meghan Markle to be a stunningly beautiful woman. I was aware from the offset that she was of mixed heritage. That said who cares about her racial heritage? Well perhaps the print media. "Gorgeous Kate Middleton selects Lillies of the valley for her wedding bouquet. Evil Meghan Markle puts Princess Charlotte's life in peril for a wedding bouquet of toxic Lillies of the valley". Similarly avocados etc, etc.

    I have no doubt Danny Baker is not a racist. Now Danny Baker fronted a football show. He is of my age so should be well aware of the toxicity of disgusting monkey analogies, for example bananas directed at John Barnes, outrageous racism to John and Justin Fashanu. West Brom's trio and Viv Anderson. I would avoid monkey analogies irrespective of the race of the recipient. At best Baker was very clumsy.
    I can't imagine anyone thinks it was a clever thing to do.

    But I would think something like this was what was in his mind:
    https://www.myartbroker.com/artist-banksy/series-monkey-queen
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878
    Inspired by the weekend's parallel thread I've decided to starve myself for a bit. 24 hours from Sunday night until yesterday evening and now aiming for 36 hours from yesterday evening to tomorrow morning.

    I don't yet feel supernaturally focused on the delicious gazelle in the distance. Or light headed and weak. Just rather hungry.

    Will go and get a cup of tea I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Nigelb said:

    Loving Trump's attorney in the immunity hearing, arguing that the President could order Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and if not impeached, could not be prosecuted criminally.*
    Actually, that was a hypothetical put to him, but it didn't sway his argument at all.

    Biden might be giving that one consideration, if it flies ?
    He'd be impeached - but it would solve the 'should I run again ?' and 'what about Donald' problems at a stroke.

    *And also, if he were impeached, could not be criminally tried, as that would constitute double jeopardy...

    Never mind that Nige, this is far better:

    https://nypost.com/2024/01/08/news/trump-co-defendant-alleges-improper-relationship-between-georgia-da-and-prosecutor-demands-indictment-be-thrown-out/amp/

    If that is even remotely true, that would be hilarious

    Ps I did try to link to the NYT piece to not raise your blood pressure but I couldn’t get the link and the Atlantic Constitution doesn’t allow access in Europe).

    You're slow - I posted that last night.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    I remember children being called monkeys all the time at primary school, but since everyone was white it probably wasn't a problem.

    I grew up in the outskirts of Birmingham. In the 1970s we only had less than half a dozen Afro-Carribean heritage boys at school back then. I bet you can't guess which less than half a dozen boys were referred to as "monkeys" on a regular basis.
    IF you had matriculated in USA, and called a Black kid a "monkey" you'd have been consuming breakfast, lunch and dinner through a straw for some time.

    For context, knew a Black guy who told me this story: when he was in high school, a "humorist" asked him, "Hey, where's your spear?"

    Answer - "Up you Mama's rear!" That shitfaced clown got off easy, because my friend was a really nice person.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    TimS said:

    Inspired by the weekend's parallel thread I've decided to starve myself for a bit. 24 hours from Sunday night until yesterday evening and now aiming for 36 hours from yesterday evening to tomorrow morning.

    I don't yet feel supernaturally focused on the delicious gazelle in the distance. Or light headed and weak. Just rather hungry.

    Will go and get a cup of tea I think.

    If you and @leon can both see a Gazelle in the distance you are either both in Africa or you both need to eat something.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    This is the best take yet


    “imagine seeing a jewish guy crawl out from a secret sewer tunnel in new york city, not having your phone out to record it, and trying to tell people without sounding like the most antisemitic person alive”


    https://x.com/pissvortex/status/1744696203055337674?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878

    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    Those are archetypal Gen-X, 70s baby names. Probably Jon rather than John. Plus the 5th evangelist Tom and his brother Jamie.

    Plus their girl mates Becky, Liz, Sam and Zoe.
    What did Toby do to get excluded?
    He considered himself too hard for them. Thought they were a bit sad, as did his mates Dan and Will.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited January 9

    Nigelb said:

    Loving Trump's attorney in the immunity hearing, arguing that the President could order Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival, and if not impeached, could not be prosecuted criminally.*
    Actually, that was a hypothetical put to him, but it didn't sway his argument at all.

    Biden might be giving that one consideration, if it flies ?
    He'd be impeached - but it would solve the 'should I run again ?' and 'what about Donald' problems at a stroke.

    *And also, if he were impeached, could not be criminally tried, as that would constitute double jeopardy...

    The US constitution explicitly allows for subsequent prosecution - Article I, Section 3, clause 7:

    Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
    I'm sure there are other ways of interpreting that clause.
    Let's ask the SC.

    (These are not my arguments.)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,893

    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    Those are archetypal Gen-X, 70s baby names. Probably Jon rather than John. Plus the 5th evangelist Tom and his brother Jamie.

    Plus their girl mates Becky, Liz, Sam and Zoe.
    What did Toby do to get excluded?
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    As far as I can work out from portraits and representations of him Jesus was white plus he had those nice Oxbridge friends Matt, Mark, Luke and John.
    Those are archetypal Gen-X, 70s baby names. Probably Jon rather than John. Plus the 5th evangelist Tom and his brother Jamie.

    Plus their girl mates Becky, Liz, Sam and Zoe.
    And of course, Jude.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ...

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.

    NU10K is an right-wing invention, no such thing exists.

    There are influential people, some of whom would obviously be among the 10,000 most influential in the UK, but once you get beyond the obvious, you soon get into argument.

    Here's a (fairly) random list of a dozen influential people - are they amongst the top 10k influencers? Are they in the 'so-called' NU10K?

    Alan Bates
    David Cameron
    King Charles
    Suella Braverman
    Gary Lineker
    Paul Dacre
    Sue Gray
    Frederick Barclay
    Carol Vorderman
    Rishi Sunak
    Richard Tice
    Rachel Reeves
    Here's an example. There once was a leading economist who was sent to prison in disgrace for lying about a speeding offence. After her time was served he friends in the media did all they could to rehabilitate her - evert time the BBC needed an economist, you've guessed it, dear old ex-con Vicki Pryce (for it is she) would be wheeled out.
    If this was a real conspiracy surely she'd have avoided jail altogether. She's done her time, she's good at her job, I don't see why she shouldn't work tbh.
    I think her rehabilitation was a bit easier than others, shall we say. Take Danny Baker - a career ended because he made an off the cuff joke that some 'chose' to call racist.
    Danny Baker likened Harry & Meghan's child to a chimpanzee. If that's not racist, what is?
    What's the context?

    I call my children monkeys all the time. Especially my youngest, that's my nickname for her, "monkey" and if I'm out and about and want her to eg hold my hand before we cross the road I'll say something like "come on, monkey". The fact she's always jumping around and climbing onto the back of the sofa may or may not be related to the inspiration of the nickname.

    Wouldn't very often say it about other peoples kids though. But I have called other people's kids "cheeky monkeys" before.
    According to wiki:

    Baker posted an image on Twitter of a couple holding hands with a chimpanzee dressed in clothes. He had added the caption: "Royal Baby leaves hospital," referring to the recent birth of Archie Mountbatten-Windsor, son of Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Baker#Sacking_by_the_BBC_(2019)
    Baker claimed - and I believe him - that he had no idea Meghan Markle is mixed race (he thought she was white) so the remark was entirely innocent, and devoid of any racial intent
    Bless
    My wife also assumed that Markle was white. Its not that difficult to believe.
    Hmm, I find that bit harder to believe.

    That he wasn't thinking about the race is easier to believe.

    Racists make racist remarks as they're thinking about race and mean it. Non-racists don't think about race all the time, so forgetting/not thinking about it can be entirely natural for a non-racist and we should ideally all be like that.
    Really? My wife once thought a mixed race friend simply had a good tan (for years, until I told her). She does not follow gossip magazines and stupid reality stuff, can't stand the royal family and had only seen her in films. She looks white to me too.
    Should have gone to Specsavers.
    'White' is a matter of opinion. There's precious little practical difference in skin colour between natives of Greece or southern Spain, and northern Africa. But one is typically classed as white and the other as Arab (ie brown).
    Plenty of Afrikaaners running around South Africa, with darker natural complexions that many "Coloured" mixed race people.

    Wonder why?
This discussion has been closed.