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Trump remains clear WH2024 favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,159
edited January 14 in General
imageTrump remains clear WH2024 favourite – politicalbetting.com

Even though 2024 is likely to be the UK election year the US Presidential election is likely to be the biggest political betting event.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited January 9
    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    There were stories going round yesterday that Biden died over the weekend but it was being kept quiet.

    Don’t trust twitter nowadays
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited January 9
    Go forth and bonkers, again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Toby Young has reported on Newsom assuming the mantle from Biden 90 out of the last 0 times it happened.
  • Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Have we discussed Lloyd Austin's mystery surgery that went wrong leading him to disappearing for a few days? Ball bag tuck? Lipo?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 9
    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    If he does I will be taking over your crown as Predicto-damus supreme:

    Benpointer · September 18, 2023 · Home› General
    Apols if this has already been mentioned but if Biden has decided not to stand again he's not going to announce that until February at the earliest is he?

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4538942#Comment_4538942
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Isn't "the tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bullshit"?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited January 9
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Biden pulling out seems crackers on the face of it as he is, above all, a creature of preening vanity and pride. On the other hand he looks like Crypt Keeper and if he dropped dead tomorrow it'd be #whatevs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    isam said:

    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Whilst I think Labour are shoe in for a reasonable majority at the next GE, I am interested in the after shock. Starmer is not very popular. Starmer's policy proposals are not very popular. From what I can see, with the fiscal rules and things Wes Streeting is proposing re the NHS, Labour are going to do more austerity and privatisation - which isn't popular. We could see the Tories become an irrelevancy and then a super unpopular Labour government follow, which I would see really benefiting (alas) Reform UK / whichever right wing reactionary is the best at mugging to the camera. I could hope that it would benefit the Greens (who seem to be somewhat competitive in their target seat in Bristol, for example), but generally I am not an optimist...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    isam said:

    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    It seems that not everyone has your x-ray vision to dissect the self confessed lawyer SKS.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,555
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 9
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    It seems that not everyone has your x-ray vision to dissect the self confessed lawyer SKS.
    If everyone was special, no one would be special
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    isam said:

    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hubble bubble toil and trouble
    Tories sink, with Labour double.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Isn't "the tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bullshit"?
    I think the combination of right wing and journalist is an oxymoron.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Foxy said:

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden Valley Forge speech last week was both coherent and sane. Well worth watching in full. That isn't a man about to pull out.
    This link has the full speech.

    https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1743384856002748782?t=KGqaxBQkrvPmOfTVdmJQFw&s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    There's a clue there for you.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    I think Joe might pull out if the Republicans can see their way to not running a wannabe fascist. We're not there yet. Trump still looms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I was going to, but now you’ve been such an arse, I won’t. You’ll have to dig into the TwiX
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Dura_Ace said:

    Have we discussed Lloyd Austin's mystery surgery that went wrong leading him to disappearing for a few days? Ball bag tuck? Lipo?

    AWOL for nearly a week, for an elective procedure that went wrong.
    Can't see him not getting sacked.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 9
    Good Rupert Myers has gone out for lunch and his evil twin has logged into his Twitter account @TheScreamingEagles

    Starmer faces questions over why he failed to intervene in Post Office scandal

    Why hasn't the CPS been transparent and disclosed the cases it worked on? It seems to be hiding behind the defence that the Post Office conducted many of the prosecutions.



    https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744667538657546648?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    You were this excited when Toby Young said the same thing last year.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    Well, there can be little doubt that Trump has severe mental disturbances of some sort.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Anyone remember Biden's comment from March 2020 when he was still campaigning in the Dem primaries?

    “Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/joe-biden-bridge-new-generation-of-leaders/index.html

    Also a reminder that he only won the nomination because after he won the South Carolina primary there was a possibility that Sanders would win, hence other 'moderates' dropping out and endorsing Biden.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812
    isam said:

    Bad YouGov’s for Rishi and the Tories

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention results (2-3 Jan)

    Con: 22% (-2 from 19-20 Dec)
    Lab: 46% (+3)
    Lib Dem: 10% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

    Keir Starmer: 30% (no change from 19-20 Dec)
    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3)
    Not sure: 46% (+3)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656534208909536?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1744656536759152651?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    To be fair its before the LibDem Post Office scandal broke, so he should get a boost from fixing that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    Is Macron trying to give 34-year-old Gabriel Attal a platform to run for the French presidency as the stop-Le Pen candidate? If so it may be a big mistake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
    Don't google it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I was going to, but now you’ve been such an arse, I won’t. You’ll have to dig into the TwiX
    Can someone post it so we can all see how sad, pathetic and embarrassing it is and laugh at Leon? (I'm not on X)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Not exactly make America great again vibes,

    Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
    Yes, he walks like someone even older than he is (if you see what I mean). He walks like a 90 year old

    I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Nigelb said:

    Not exactly make America great again vibes,

    Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/

    Well he certainly sucks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Their practical problem isn't Sanders-style nutter, it's Kamala Harris. It's not really obvious how they could stitch themselves out of that one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
    Don't google it.
    If you get wet behind your ears after fapping, you're doing it wrong.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited January 9
    isam said:

    Good Rupert Myers has gone out for lunch and his evil twin has logged into his Twitter account @TheScreamingEagles

    Starmer faces questions over why he failed to intervene in Post Office scandal

    Why hasn't the CPS been transparent and disclosed the cases it worked on? It seems to be hiding behind the defence that the Post Office conducted many of the prosecutions.



    https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744667538657546648?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    FIFH

    Why hasn't the CPS been transparent and disclosed the cases it worked on? It seems to be hiding behind the defence correctly pointing out that the Post Office conducted many nearly all of the prosecutions.

    Why didn't innumerable Tory Attorneys General, as Starmer's boss, stop the prosecutions?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    edited January 9
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
    It's wanking. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Fap
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Sanders isn't a nutter, he's a social democrat who would do mild social democratic reform. But what the elite Dems do not want is a discussion about those policies because a) their base disagrees with them and b) the Fox News' of the world will beat the drum that whoever is the nominee is a pinko commie (which tbf, they do anyway). There would also be a big issue now with Israel, as even the Sanders / Fettermans of the caucus are staunchly pro Israel in a way that a lot of the base truly do not agree with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Their practical problem isn't Sanders-style nutter, it's Kamala Harris. It's not really obvious how they could stitch themselves out of that one.
    A fair point
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    "So you're saying there's a chance ?"

    Trump holds 65-point lead over DeSantis in Nevada GOP caucus: poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396135-trump-holds-65-point-lead-over-desantis-in-nevada-gop-caucus-poll/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
    It's wanking. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Fap
    Where in China is that
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Their practical problem isn't Sanders-style nutter, it's Kamala Harris. It's not really obvious how they could stitch themselves out of that one.
    Maybe she will "surprise on the upside". She does sort of look like somebody who would be cast in the role of Madame President in a Netflix show. Biden looks like he should be in a rocking chair on a porch. DJT looks like exactly what he is: a Palm Beach real estate shyster whose first two fingers on his right hand smell of mackerel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Parts of Phnom Penh make the livelier quarters of Bangkok look positively…. sedate

    Golly
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Sanders isn't a nutter, he's a social democrat who would do mild social democratic reform. But what the elite Dems do not want is a discussion about those policies because a) their base disagrees with them and b) the Fox News' of the world will beat the drum that whoever is the nominee is a pinko commie (which tbf, they do anyway). There would also be a big issue now with Israel, as even the Sanders / Fettermans of the caucus are staunchly pro Israel in a way that a lot of the base truly do not agree with.
    Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist, which is more than enough by itself to stop him being elected. Not to mention that he's a cranky octogenatian with a dicky ticker, who's even older than Biden.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    I see EiT made the same point as I was writing.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Sanders isn't a nutter, he's a social democrat who would do mild social democratic reform. But what the elite Dems do not want is a discussion about those policies because a) their base disagrees with them and b) the Fox News' of the world will beat the drum that whoever is the nominee is a pinko commie (which tbf, they do anyway). There would also be a big issue now with Israel, as even the Sanders / Fettermans of the caucus are staunchly pro Israel in a way that a lot of the base truly do not agree with.
    Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist, which is more than enough by itself to stop him being elected. Not to mention that he's a cranky octogenatian with a dicky ticker, who's even older than Biden.
    He is literally the most popular currently elected politician in the US.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
    Yes, he walks like someone even older than he is (if you see what I mean). He walks like a 90 year old

    I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
    I'm arguably his biggest proponent on PB - on balance, I think he's been a very good president indeed - but I don't deny he looks pretty frail.

    But getting a sitting first term president to step down is a rare thing indeed; rarer still if they haven't been a disaster in office.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Still, not to worry

    “If China invades Taiwan, it would cost world economy $10 trillion”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-invades-taiwan-it-would-cost-world-economy-10-trillion
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    Nigelb said:

    Not exactly make America great again vibes,

    Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/

    Well he certainly sucks.
    Hoover was very unlucky to be president (barring that he wanted the job). Or unlucky to be president when he was. Had he retired from public life in 1929, he'd be remembered - by a relatively small number - as having had an outstandingly successful career in private an public service.

    As it was, the music stopped when he was holding the time-bomb, to mix metaphors. Those are the breaks.

    Trump, whose record in business and public is dismal by contrast, is happy to play Coolidge in office and hope someone else is around when the reckoning comes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited January 9
    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Trump represents a negative. If you don't like the way things have been going for the last 15 or 20 years, he's an attractive option for many US voters. People aren't voting for him because of anything to do with the future.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Two rational WaPo columns on topic:

    First, Ruy Teixeira on Biden's strategic error:
    "But there was a catch. After he clinched the nomination, he felt it was necessary to incorporate the views of the party’s left into his campaign’s policy stances and outlook. Usually, candidates try to move toward the center ahead of a general election campaign. But Biden did the reverse. He formed six “unity task forces” jointly coordinated by Biden and Sanders campaign figures, covering climate change, criminal justice reform, the economy, education, health care and immigration."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/03/trump-biden-again-2024-repeat-stuck/

    Second, Kathleen Parker on the case for Haley:
    "In addition to risking a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021, a Trump loss would leave us with the elderly Joe Biden in the presidency and the painful probability that he won’t live to complete his second term. And you know what that means. The single strongest argument against Biden’s reelection is Vice President Harris.
    . . .
    Thus, we are left with Haley and DeSantis. My view is that Haley is far and above the best pick for the jobs of chief executive and commander in chief. Like DeSantis, she has been a governor — South Carolina, where she was popular enough to be reelected. She left that job to become Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, where she was a natural. Articulate, knowledgeable and a quick study, she entered and left the position as a polished pro."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/05/nikki-haley-president-iowa-new-hampshire-south-carolina/

    In contrast to Haley, Parker says, Ron De Santis seems "seems a man unfamiliar with his own skin."

    (For the record: In 2020 I would have voted for Biden, had he chosen someone competent for vice president. But he may be too into identity politics, and Harris does check three big identity boxes. He shoudl have picked someone like Klobuchar or Hickenlooper.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Their practical problem isn't Sanders-style nutter, it's Kamala Harris. It's not really obvious how they could stitch themselves out of that one.
    Maybe she will "surprise on the upside". She does sort of look like somebody who would be cast in the role of Madame President in a Netflix show. Biden looks like he should be in a rocking chair on a porch. DJT looks like exactly what he is: a Palm Beach real estate shyster whose first two fingers on his right hand smell of mackerel.
    You're being overly generous to Trump, omitting that the rest of him carries the odour of four day dead rat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Sanders isn't a nutter, he's a social democrat who would do mild social democratic reform. But what the elite Dems do not want is a discussion about those policies because a) their base disagrees with them and b) the Fox News' of the world will beat the drum that whoever is the nominee is a pinko commie (which tbf, they do anyway). There would also be a big issue now with Israel, as even the Sanders / Fettermans of the caucus are staunchly pro Israel in a way that a lot of the base truly do not agree with.
    Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist, which is more than enough by itself to stop him being elected. Not to mention that he's a cranky octogenatian with a dicky ticker, who's even older than Biden.
    He is literally the most popular currently elected politician in the US.
    Because he poses no threat. A lot of people quite liked Tony Benn in old age.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
    Yes, he walks like someone even older than he is (if you see what I mean). He walks like a 90 year old

    I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
    I'm arguably his biggest proponent on PB - on balance, I think he's been a very good president indeed - but I don't deny he looks pretty frail.

    But getting a sitting first term president to step down is a rare thing indeed; rarer still if they haven't been a disaster in office.
    It is of course possible, if not likely, that Biden himself (and his aides) are wrestling with this dilemma and don’t know what to do. Biden is a vain man, and would surely love to continue (and he has a jolly decent shot at winning); however he is not stupid, and he knows he risks a Trump victory, BECAUSE Biden himself is very old and quite unpopular

    So the conflicting reports may reflect a real conflict in Biden’s team, and indeed in Biden’s increasingly skull-like head
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Their practical problem isn't Sanders-style nutter, it's Kamala Harris. It's not really obvious how they could stitch themselves out of that one.
    Maybe she will "surprise on the upside". She does sort of look like somebody who would be cast in the role of Madame President in a Netflix show. Biden looks like he should be in a rocking chair on a porch. DJT looks like exactly what he is: a Palm Beach real estate shyster whose first two fingers on his right hand smell of mackerel.
    Yeah, I mean she can deliver the lines they write for her and she doesn't screw up in interviews. Yglesias talks about how they could run her like this:

    Kamala Harris’ 2009 book “Smart on Crime,” for example, carried a message that I think was well-suited to a politically ambitious District Attorney in 2009, but that turned out to be awkward for a politically ambitious United States Senator in 2019. Today, though, the politics of crime have very much reverted back to something resembling the 2009 situation, and I think the old “Kamala is a Cop” persona would be welcome, if she wants to bring it back.

    The murder rate is falling sharply this year, which is great news, but something Joe Biden seems to feel awkward bragging about.

    Harris, as an actual prosecutor, really does have a formula for talking about why arresting criminals is good and fighting crime is important. She’s also weathered political controversy in the past for her tough stance on truancy and absenteeism in schools. Back in 2019, I think that struck a lot of people as a weird issue. But with school attendance now a national crisis, it’s worth addressing.

    As I’ve written previously, while legal abortion always polls well, it polls even better if you use the old Bill Clinton “safe, legal, and rare” framing. On some level, I think that just goes to show that Joe Biden should revert to the more popular Democratic message. But I get that it would be contentious as a coalition-management issue. For Harris, a woman, it would be an easier sell.

    And while I know everyone felt a little exhausted after Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, we shouldn’t underplay the element of genuine excitement and hunger to shatter the glass ceiling. I don’t think a hypothetical Harris presidential campaign should make that their central message (I actually don't think she should say it at all), but it would generate a burst of enthusiasm in at least some quarters.


    I think part of her problem is that she's not sure whether she needs to optimize for a primary or not, so she's mostly keeping a low profile. What she really needs is for Biden to retire before November, or better die. She'd get at least a month of good media that she could use to turn her image around.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Does Trump's voter-galvanising effect net out neutral between the MAGAs and the Never-Trumpers, I wonder? I wonder if Biden's best hope is actually to face off against Trump, as a big chunk of the electorate would vote for almost anyone to keep Trump out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    As the post before yours suggests, we don't all know that.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    If Biden decides not to run like a week or two before Iowa caucuses for the GOP (I know the Dem cycle isn't starting til March) it will be a real mess. The "easiest" thing for the Dems (if they want to make sure it is Newsom or whoever) is for Biden to steam through the primaries then, just before the convention, be like "actually I'm super ill / old and can't do this now", and stitch it up at the convention. The base might hate it, and lots of the media will call it out as a stitch up, but an actual primary now would be far too messy and hard to control.
    Yes, that seems to be some of the logic behind this. A stitch up so the Elite Dems can make sure they get the candidate they want, not some Sanders-style nutter who might exploit the opening
    Sanders isn't a nutter, he's a social democrat who would do mild social democratic reform. But what the elite Dems do not want is a discussion about those policies because a) their base disagrees with them and b) the Fox News' of the world will beat the drum that whoever is the nominee is a pinko commie (which tbf, they do anyway). There would also be a big issue now with Israel, as even the Sanders / Fettermans of the caucus are staunchly pro Israel in a way that a lot of the base truly do not agree with.
    Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist, which is more than enough by itself to stop him being elected. Not to mention that he's a cranky octogenatian with a dicky ticker, who's even older than Biden.
    He is literally the most popular currently elected politician in the US.
    Because he poses no threat. A lot of people quite liked Tony Benn in old age.
    I mean, I would argue it's because he explains how his policies will benefit people directly and it's kinda hard to argue against that - whereas Democrats are usually mealy mouthed and means test things and then make it a tax break instead of a benefit, etc. Sanders doesn't back down before the policy debate even happens, Dems do - people like a fighter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    edited January 9
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
    Yes, he walks like someone even older than he is (if you see what I mean). He walks like a 90 year old

    I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
    I'm arguably his biggest proponent on PB - on balance, I think he's been a very good president indeed - but I don't deny he looks pretty frail.

    But getting a sitting first term president to step down is a rare thing indeed; rarer still if they haven't been a disaster in office.
    It is of course possible, if not likely, that Biden himself (and his aides) are wrestling with this dilemma and don’t know what to do. Biden is a vain man, and would surely love to continue (and he has a jolly decent shot at winning); however he is not stupid, and he knows he risks a Trump victory, BECAUSE Biden himself is very old and quite unpopular

    So the conflicting reports may reflect a real conflict in Biden’s team, and indeed in Biden’s increasingly skull-like head
    The only ones who matter are him, his wife and his very long term aide whose name escapes me as far as the final decision on running is concerned. That decision has been made. Maybe it can be unmade if Trump pulls to 5+% points ahead in all the key states but even then I doubt it.

    It's Trump vs Biden and that's an end to it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/09/the-hidden-life-of-camila-batmanghelidjh-why-was-her-exoneration-so-widely-ignored

    I wonder where Camila Batmanghelidjh sat with respect to the NU10K? Influential third sector director, extensive links with other parts of the political, charity and media establishment, sounds like she's a member. Yet her fall from grace was absolute - even though ultimately unjustified. I thought NU10Kers only failed upwards? I thought they all protected each other - yet it seems like the absolute opposite in her case.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
  • Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    The only reason every recently built (< 2 years) Boeing hasn't been grounded is because of the FAA's general reluctance to take actions that would seriously damage both Boeing and several large US airlines unless aircraft are literally falling out of the sky. I don't agree with that stance, but it is what it is.

    Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.

    Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Harris may be content to run for a second term as VP alongside AN Other who has a better chance of winning.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 9

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Measuring US crime rates. We aren't very good at it. There are two main measures; both have problems. And sometimes they contradict each other: "The United States has two primary ways of measuring the nation’s crime rate: the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Earlier this week, the FBI released 2022 UCR data that showed a drop in the nation’s violent crime rate. There is little doubt that murder declined last year, but NCVS data released in September showed that total violent crime victimization rose in 2022. The divergence between the nation’s two crime measures makes it uncertain whether violent crime actually went up or down in 2022.:
    source: https://counciloncj.org/did-violent-crime-go-up-or-down-last-year-yes-it-did/

    So, it is not obviously irrational for American voters to think that crime is increasing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Ever heard of "excited delirium"? Listen to Jon Ronson's latest Radio 4 programme. Amazing stuff, and very alarming.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001v3dw
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    The only reason every recently built (< 2 years) Boeing hasn't been grounded is because of the FAA's general reluctance to take actions that would seriously damage both Boeing and several large US airlines unless aircraft are literally falling out of the sky. I don't agree with that stance, but it is what it is.

    Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.

    Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
    Yes, that was the gist of the NYT article. Boeing are perilously close to a calamitous FAA order to ground all new Boeing planes, worldwide

    Imagine the chaos

    One theory being canvassed is that the pandemic screwed their production line reliability, many key staff left and weren’t replaced, etc

    That kinda makes sense but then why didn’t the same happen to Airbus?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited January 9

    Nigelb said:

    Not exactly make America great again vibes,

    Trump says he hopes economy crashes in next 12 months: ‘I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/

    Well he certainly sucks.
    Hoover was very unlucky to be president (barring that he wanted the job). Or unlucky to be president when he was. Had he retired from public life in 1929, he'd be remembered - by a relatively small number - as having had an outstandingly successful career in private an public service.

    As it was, the music stopped when he was holding the time-bomb, to mix metaphors. Those are the breaks.

    Trump, whose record in business and public is dismal by contrast, is happy to play Coolidge in office and hope someone else is around when the reckoning comes.
    I'm not sure Hoover was that unlucky to be President. Ultimately, he's remembered as a failed President but a decent man - rather like Carter.

    He was pretty bitter towards Roosevelt - partly that was fair because he ran a pretty rough campaign in 1932, but to an extent it was just an unwinnable election. But he lived plenty long enough to broadly get over and have a long career as an elder statesman, albeit very much not a national treasure - indeed, he had two decades as the only living ex-President, which must be a record.

    However much it must have rankled at times to rank as a lower table President, partly due to circumstance, I have little doubt it would have been preferable to him over dying wondering and forgotten.


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812

    eek said:

    Both Trump and Biden remain too long, Biden especially.

    Haley is polling well in NH but Trump has commanding leads nationwide and she can't beat him unless she goes for him directly, which she isn't doing. So given that Trump won't withdraw, even if in prison then unless he's barred somehow, she doesn't get the nomination.

    I simply don't see Biden retiring either. Leave aside that he really wants the job and has done all his life. The mechanics are tough. The primaries are already underway. Filing deadlines have passed and are passing. If Biden withdraws, there's every chance that random wierdos end up with a load of delegates because they're the only ones left - and Biden still gets a majority because he's on the ballot anyway and there's no-one else credible to vote for, and so can more-or-less dictate his successor (but who? Not Harris, surely?). We're already close to being too late for a proper Democrat primary campaign.

    Yep.

    Could be convention that decides the nominee if Biden has to pull in Spring because of health.

    That could well be popcorntastic.
    It would be Harris as incumbent but we all know that’s going to be a disaster.

    Not sure how the Democrats would escape the issue though
    If Biden withdrew, they couldn't escape the issue.

    But it wouldn't necessarily be Harris (who may not be incumbent; Biden could withdraw from the nomination race while remaining president - or he could quit both, voluntarily or otherwise; those are three different scenarios that need gaming out individually). Whatever, it would be Biden's delegates at the convention deciding, with or without his input. Harris might have some claim based on seniority but she's hardly been a glowing success as VP (not that it's an easy role in which to be successful).
    Biden won't quit as President unless he has a very major and acute health issue. But there must be a >30% chance he will decide not to run again. Then the Dem nomination field is wide open.
    Why must there be >30%?

    He has probably already decided in my opinion so I'd suggest the five likely options in order are:

    Plans to stand regardless, health events take that down to 90%
    Plans to stand as long as Trump the candidate, health events and SC ruling take that down to 80%
    100% not standing
    Genuinely undecided
    Plans to stand as long as polling plausible, health events and polling take that down to 80%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TwiX has a BIG rumour (retweeted by Musk, no less) that Biden is going to pull out shortly

    Caveat Empt, DYOR, I have NO idea if it is true

    Isn't "retweeted by Musk" the Uxbridge English Dictionary definition of the word "bollocks"?
    No

    The tweet actually comes from a right wing journalist. Whether that makes it more or less reliable I dunno. More, because it is less likely to be wishful thinking; less, because it is more likely to be misinformed?

    i hope that is clear, now place your bets, gentlemen
    Instead of breathlessly fapping yourself off over your interpretation, why not just link to the tweet so we can read the bollox directly?
    I’ve found that doesn’t help much
    With the fapping ?
    I must be the one who is wet behind the ears now, as I don’t know what fapping means
    It's wanking. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Fap
    Why do you have to be so coarse and vulgar?

    Which reminds me


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Prince Andrew ‘may have been pressed to settle sex case by Queen’

    Jeffrey Epstein lawyer Alan Dershowitz says Duke of York made mistake in not fighting Virginia Giuffre claims


    Jeffrey Epstein’s former lawyer believes that the Duke of York was pressured by the late Queen into paying millions to settle the civil sexual assault brought against him by Virginia Giuffre.

    Alan Dershowitz, who worked for Epstein from 2008, said that he felt sorry for Prince Andrew and believed the duke had made a “terrible mistake” by not fighting the case in court.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeffrey-epstein-list-prince-andrew-sex-tape-donald-trump-girls-files-hj5gs2z7w
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Paula Vennells says she will hand back her CBE with immediate effect.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    The only reason every recently built (< 2 years) Boeing hasn't been grounded is because of the FAA's general reluctance to take actions that would seriously damage both Boeing and several large US airlines unless aircraft are literally falling out of the sky. I don't agree with that stance, but it is what it is.

    Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.

    Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
    Yes, that was the gist of the NYT article. Boeing are perilously close to a calamitous FAA order to ground all new Boeing planes, worldwide

    Imagine the chaos

    One theory being canvassed is that the pandemic screwed their production line reliability, many key staff left and weren’t replaced, etc

    That kinda makes sense but then why didn’t the same happen to Airbus?
    Europe had furlough schemes to keep workers attached to firms, the US had generous unemployment benefits instead. Overall the US approach has probably facilitated worker turnover, allowing successful firms to expand and boosting productivity, but perhaps the European approach was better in sectors where you really want some continuity. Also, Boeing seems to have become a really terrible company in recent years, while Airbus hasn't. That probably helped with worker retention on this side of the Atlantic.
  • Prince Andrew ‘may have been pressed to settle sex case by Queen’

    Jeffrey Epstein lawyer Alan Dershowitz says Duke of York made mistake in not fighting Virginia Giuffre claims


    Jeffrey Epstein’s former lawyer believes that the Duke of York was pressured by the late Queen into paying millions to settle the civil sexual assault brought against him by Virginia Giuffre.

    Alan Dershowitz, who worked for Epstein from 2008, said that he felt sorry for Prince Andrew and believed the duke had made a “terrible mistake” by not fighting the case in court.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeffrey-epstein-list-prince-andrew-sex-tape-donald-trump-girls-files-hj5gs2z7w

    I bet Alan Dershowitz wishes Prince Andrew had fought it. At 85, it'd be rather handy for Alan if the whole process was held up for a few years by a protracted court battle with someone else at its centre.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Paula Vennells says she will hand back her CBE with immediate effect.

    Running very scared indeed. Won't stop prosecutions at the PO luv.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    The only reason every recently built (< 2 years) Boeing hasn't been grounded is because of the FAA's general reluctance to take actions that would seriously damage both Boeing and several large US airlines unless aircraft are literally falling out of the sky. I don't agree with that stance, but it is what it is.

    Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.

    Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
    Yes, that was the gist of the NYT article. Boeing are perilously close to a calamitous FAA order to ground all new Boeing planes, worldwide

    Imagine the chaos

    One theory being canvassed is that the pandemic screwed their production line reliability, many key staff left and weren’t replaced, etc

    That kinda makes sense but then why didn’t the same happen to Airbus?
    The people at Boeing need to stay positive in this tough time for as they say, when a door closes another one opens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Immunity hearing today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The NYT is reporting that Boeing are lucky the entire 737 fleet has not been grounded, and maybe other models as well

    That seems quite extreme, but if it is even half true, then this could be spectacularly bad for such an enormous company - and have vast implications for the airline/tourist/travel industries. How many Boeing planes are out there?

    The only reason every recently built (< 2 years) Boeing hasn't been grounded is because of the FAA's general reluctance to take actions that would seriously damage both Boeing and several large US airlines unless aircraft are literally falling out of the sky. I don't agree with that stance, but it is what it is.

    Finding similar gross defects in multiple 737 Max 9s indicates a deep, systemic problem at Boeing, or at least at the Renton facility that handles final assembly of the 737. This isn't just some tired, lazy or under-trained technician making a mistake. There should be multiple layers of checks in place to make sure errors are caught and rectified before airframes make it out the door. And clearly those checks are either ineffective or not being done at all, which means nothing in those aircraft can be trusted unless airlines have thoroughly inspected it.

    Boeing recently had to warn airlines about lose bolts in the 737's tail assembly, and now there are lose bolts in the plug door. There will be more as yet undiscovered problems with the 737 Max because they were simply not built to a high enough standard.
    Yes, that was the gist of the NYT article. Boeing are perilously close to a calamitous FAA order to ground all new Boeing planes, worldwide

    Imagine the chaos

    One theory being canvassed is that the pandemic screwed their production line reliability, many key staff left and weren’t replaced, etc

    That kinda makes sense but then why didn’t the same happen to Airbus?
    The people at Boeing need to stay positive in this tough time for as they say, when a door closes another one opens.
    Jolly good
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited January 9
    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    I was listening to someone discuss this the other day, and he put it quite succinctly. Donald Trump is insane, but coherent. His world view is a delusion, but he can express it and describe it and make people believe in it. Joe Biden is sane, but incoherent. Despite living in reality, he does not have the capability to communicate that - whether that is due to his age or not, it doesn't matter. So what voters see is a politician they might not agree with who is energetic and could definitely do the job, versus someone who many be half sensible but also looks half dead and incapable of doing the job.

    Edit: first?

    Biden's walk is now as much a worrying sign as his sometimes quavery verbal delivery. I saw him on a news clip last week and thought Christ, if that was a relative of mine I'd be having a serious chat with them about not going out by themselves. The clip was cruelly juxtaposed with a much earlier one of Biden vigorously jogging up to a podium to join Obama.

    I think the US cult of youth extends to oldies attempting to stay young by whatever means necessary. If you look like you're making a serious attempt and can more or less pull it off (which annoyingly Trump seems to be able to do) you're given credit for that, if you look like you're taking the first step on the rainbow bridge, you're toast.
    Yes, he walks like someone even older than he is (if you see what I mean). He walks like a 90 year old

    I don’t believe he could make it through an entire 2nd term, indeed I am not sure he can make it through an entire presidential campaign - and he must be aware of this. So there may be some merit in these rumours
    I'm arguably his biggest proponent on PB - on balance, I think he's been a very good president indeed - but I don't deny he looks pretty frail.

    But getting a sitting first term president to step down is a rare thing indeed; rarer still if they haven't been a disaster in office.
    It is of course possible, if not likely, that Biden himself (and his aides) are wrestling with this dilemma and don’t know what to do. Biden is a vain man, and would surely love to continue (and he has a jolly decent shot at winning); however he is not stupid, and he knows he risks a Trump victory, BECAUSE Biden himself is very old and quite unpopular

    So the conflicting reports may reflect a real conflict in Biden’s team, and indeed in Biden’s increasingly skull-like head
    The only ones who matter are him, his wife and his very long term aide whose name escapes me as far as the final decision on running is concerned. That decision has been made. Maybe it can be unmade if Trump pulls to 5+% points ahead in all the key states but even then I doubt it.

    It's Trump vs Biden and that's an end to it.
    Peter Zeihan, in 6 mins, explaining why Trump has no chance.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIX2nXeKW0M&ab_channel=ZeihanonGeopolitics
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Wow. A guy (Rudkin) on WATO explaining that Jujitsu employees would (allegedly) manually and remotely access branch terminals to correct Horizon to balance the books and mask the errors in the PO's favour especially when Fujitsu contracts were about to renew.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    That takes it to quite a spectacular new level. Certainly criminal, indeed conspiratorial, and surely people will get big big jail sentences
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    "Ministers scramble to secure justice for Post Office victims" is a headline on the BBC.

    It ought to be "ministers scramble to cover their arses, having sat on them for a decade, doing nothing."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited January 9
    Good afternoon everyone.

    Heh.

    Met Police confirm willingness to open investigation into any crime for which you gather all the evidence and make a four-part TV drama

    https://newsthump.com/2024/01/07/met-police-confirm-willingness-to-open-investigation-into-any-crime-for-which-you-gather-all-the-evidence-and-make-a-four-part-tv-drama/

    Unlike Blackburn:

    'I told police who my burglar was - but they did nothing'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67861416

    But a straw in the wind for antisocial parking, from Cheshire:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckm7k34k2dxo

  • Nigelb said:

    Immunity hearing today.

    An essentially unwinnable case for Trump, but it eats up time.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Ghedebrav said:

    Does Trump's voter-galvanising effect net out neutral between the MAGAs and the Never-Trumpers, I wonder? I wonder if Biden's best hope is actually to face off against Trump, as a big chunk of the electorate would vote for almost anyone to keep Trump out.

    Definitely. He will beat Trump. When it comes to it, whatever the polling says, Independent voters will vote against the Donald. But it only works for Biden if Trump is the Republican candidate. Haley would be a shoo-in.
This discussion has been closed.