politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After tonight’s events in the Commons the question that mus

Cameron forced to run back to the Commons from Mansion House in his white tie getup to defend a government position that it seems clear the government didn't understand - who'd want to be Michael Gove tonight?

You do have to ask just how terrified are they of any public split over yerp to conclude that a non-debate followed by a non-vote would pass inspection.

Anyway, funny to hear my local MP the delectable Mr Wharton claim that Labour prevented a vote on the arrest warrant. I thought that Bercow stating explicitly there was NO debate or vote on EAW tonight and the massed consternation and uproar off his own benches would have sunk in....

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one, Lib Dems and Greens tied in fourth place on 6%: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

Christ,the bad publicity miliband/labour have had in the last week or so,tories still trailing.

Quite funny really.

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we think the public care much about tonight's omnishambling?

No, but it potentially increases the chance of further defections.

fitalass said:

Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.

Twitter
Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England
Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.

Mark Reckless ‏@MarkReckless 4 mins4 minutes ago
Questions for Medway Hospital Board http://wp.me/p43U2c-2oe

I like the way Dan Hodges is out and out Tory ramping these days. Wonder when he will officially come out and admit it?

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we think the public care much about tonight's omnishambling?

No, but all little events add to the general narrative that people form, or the political atmosphere that will inform them, it does have a cumulative effect, and occasionally the little events can strike a chord with a small section of the public for good and ill. The cry of 'no one really cares' is so often true, but it is still somehow overused as well.

JohnO said:

The rebels on the substantive vote (Graham Stringer is Labour and Sammy Wilson DUP). At first glance I'd say about half are from the 2010 intake

Afriyie, Adam
Baker, Steve
Barclay, Stephen
Baron, Mr John
Brady, Mr Graham
Bridgen, Andrew
Cash, Sir William
Davis, rh Mr David
de Bois, Nick
Drax, Richard
Goldsmith, Zac
Gray, Mr James
Heaton-Harris, Chris
Henderson, Gordon
Jenkin, Mr Bernard
Kelly, Chris
Leigh, Sir Edward
Lewis, Dr Julian
Lilley, rh Mr Peter
Main, Mrs Anne
McCartney, Jason
McCartney, Karl
Mills, Nigel
Morris, Anne Marie
Nuttall, Mr David
Percy, Andrew
Raab, Mr Dominic
Redwood, rh Mr John
Rees-Mogg, Jacob
Reevell, Simon
Robertson, Mr Laurence
Shepherd, Sir Richard
Stringer, Graham
Syms, Mr Robert
Turner, Mr Andrew
Whittingdale, Mr John
Wiggin, Bill
Wilson, Sammy

Tellers for the Noes:
Douglas Carswell

and
Mr Philip Hollobone

Hmm, all defector favorites in that list.

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....

Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.

Oopps

I'm knucking fackered tonight

Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You joined the LD?

The Lib Dems won't have me.

You are too left wing?

Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.

What over ?

I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.

One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put burning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.

LOL!

There was also the time another poster, who said I was a BNP supporter, after I had said the following (from before the last election)

"I hope Nick Griffin wins Barking, mostly so he will be captioned "Nick Griffin, Barking MP" which seems very apt"

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we think the public care much about tonight's omnishambling?

Probably not too much about the specifics, but they'll be left with a distinct impression of crap-ness.

Interesting to see Graham Stringer in the 38, might he be a Labour Kipper?

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....

Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.

Oopps

I'm knucking fackered tonight

Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You joined the LD?

The Lib Dems won't have me.

You are too left wing?

Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.

What over ?

I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.

One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put buIrning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.

Don't worry mr eagles,it's happened to me and a big thankyou for your support when it did ;-)

I bang on about mass immigration when labour were in power and now,poorly posted sometimes by myself I must admit on the subject ;-) and I get called a BNP member ;-)

This from a guy who voted in Galloway(sorry everyone) and my local respect councillor ;-) I did vote ukip in the European elections though ;-)

I'll come and defend you and those unfairly accused of an ....ism.

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....

Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.

Oopps

I'm knucking fackered tonight

Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.

You joined the LD?

The Lib Dems won't have me.

You are too left wing?

Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.

What over ?

I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.

One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put burning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.

LOL!

There was also the time another poster, who said I was a BNP supporter, after I had said the following (from before the last election)

"I hope Nick Griffin wins Barking, mostly so he will be captioned "Nick Griffin, Barking MP" which seems very apt"

Please tell me you didn't explain in both instances to said posters and they wandered off in pure ignorance.

I stayed silent, everyone else just laughed at the idiocy of the other posters.

Hard to disagree with much of what Patrick O'Flynn said just then.

RochdalePioneers said:

Cameron forced to run back to the Commons from Mansion House in his white tie getup to defend a government position that it seems clear the government didn't understand - who'd want to be Michael Gove tonight?

You do have to ask just how terrified are they of any public split over yerp to conclude that a non-debate followed by a non-vote would pass inspection.

Anyway, funny to hear my local MP the delectable Mr Wharton claim that Labour prevented a vote on the arrest warrant. I thought that Bercow stating explicitly there was NO debate or vote on EAW tonight and the massed consternation and uproar off his own benches would have sunk in....

Here's the video of Cameron:
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-11-10/government-gets-in-a-mess-over-european-arrest-warrant/

This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.

What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.

All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.

DavidL said:

One thing that I have been confused about for a while is how the HoC managed to vote for 35 pieces of EU legislation that we had previously opted out of which have created or, in most cases recreated, new EU competencies without triggering a referendum.

The European Union Act 2011 is a remarkably complicated piece of legislation but this still strikes me as odd.

Come on, the Referendum lock was never more than a joke.

O'Flynn getting getting savaged on Newsnight,no wonder the CBI left them off the invite list.

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

compouter2 said:

fitalass said:

Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.

Twitter
Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England
Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.

Mark Reckless ‏@MarkReckless 4 mins4 minutes ago
Questions for Medway Hospital Board http://wp.me/p43U2c-2oe

I like the way Dan Hodges is out and out Tory ramping these days. Wonder when he will officially come out and admit it?

My understanding is that he joined Conservative forces some time ago. I think he was a Labour official at some stage, now on the Tory left

The fact Ed winning meant he missed out on the job David had promised him and he has been very bitter about it ever since. If David had won, this out and out Tory could have been running the Labour campaign as we speak.....***SHUDDERS***

Jonathan said:

At this rate the proposed EU referendum is going to be a disaster for the Tories.

Dave will start to take comfort in losing the GE.

Come to think of it, that might explain current strategy.

One does wonder.

manofkent2014 said:

Today once again the Tories prove that they are the reincarnation of one of Kenny Everett's most infamous characters!

Anyone got a different pop cultural analogy for someone who doesn't know who Kenny Everett is? It's like when people starting mocking Cameron as Flashman all over again, I was adrift.

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.

What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.

All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.

An accurate analysis. The deselecting of troublesome eurosceptics may be a wise strategy for the Caneroons to adopt

You know that the local Tory parties would resist mightily such a thing and if it was ever successful then the eurosceptic MP would defect to UKIP costing the Tories the seat.

What is this crap on ITV and has Gideon just come in from the pissing down rain. Sort your bonce out Baronet.

All in all and in conclusion, today was a very good day not to be a Tory.
Goodnight.

john_zims said:

O'Flynn getting getting savaged on Newsnight,no wonder the CBI left them off the invite list.

Hard to tell, 90% of the interview was Evan Davis talking.

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.

What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.

All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.

An accurate analysis. The deselecting of troublesome eurosceptics may be a wise strategy for the Caneroons to adopt

The best thing that could ever happen to UKIP. 40 or so Conservative MPs would become 40 or so UKIP MP's.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Danny565 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.

I thought your refrain was Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

You thought wrong.

Oops, my apologies - I always get you mixed up with JackW!

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
.

I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.

It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?

I don't see that. Euroscepticism is widely held in the country, but not deeply held. After a referendum campaign in which - as you say - all politicians, all the mainstream media and all big business leaders (the fat cats at the CBI) hammer away at the so-called negative effects on the economy of EU withdrawal, 'In' would win with ease.

Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.

The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.

kle4 said:

manofkent2014 said:

Today once again the Tories prove that they are the reincarnation of one of Kenny Everett's most infamous characters!

Anyone got a different pop cultural analogy for someone who doesn't know who Kenny Everett is? It's like when people starting mocking Cameron as Flashman all over again, I was adrift.

Today parliament was like a metaphor of this chess fight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNhTYJGjc2g

Goodnight.

Ninoinoz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

And I'm going to troll Douglas Carswell tomorrow.

Ask him if he'll be claiming on expenses for the dry cleaning bill for having his suit trousers cleaned.

I say comparing Carswell and his fellow pig dog traitor to Judas is unfair.

Judas had the decency to commit suicide after his betrayal

Yes, that's what Matthew 27:3–10 says.

But, Acts 1:16-19 mentions he fell and he burst open and had his bowels gush out. Not clear if this was after he hanged himself.

I'll ask my biblical expert at work for how these two potentially contradictory accounts are reconciled.

IIRC, in The Passion of the Christ, Mel Gibson reconciled that, by Judas hanging himself, but the rope snapping, and he falling to the ground, and his bowels gushed out as his body did not cope well with the fall to the ground.

Richard_Nabavi said:

This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.

What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.

All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.

The problem is one can't believe Cameron on anything. He marches up to the top of the Hill over the £1.7 bn demand, and then he marches back down again; he introduces a referendum lock, but it doesn't apply when powers over criminal justice are handed over to the EU; he promises a vote on the EAW to the Commons and then May reneges on Ghis promise.

Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
.

I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.

It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?

I don't see that. Euroscepticism is widely held in the country, but not deeply held. After a referendum campaign in which - as you say - all politicians, all the mainstream media and all big business leaders (the fat cats at the CBI) hammer away at the so-called negative effects on the economy of EU withdrawal, 'In' would win with ease.

Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.

The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.

In Scotland yes improved on its share, don't underestimate how hated the media political elite is. Business won't be uniform on the issue either.

nigel4england said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

kle4 said:

I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.

Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.

So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.

I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.

I want out.

I want to bring back grammar schools.

I want to end Common Purpose and Bilderberg.

Coherent enough?

Your a maybe then!!

Sean_F said:

The problem is one can't believe Cameron on anything. He marches up to the top of the Hill over the £1.7 bn demand, and then he marches back down again; he introduces a referendum lock, but it doesn't apply when powers over criminal justice are handed over to the EU; he promises a vote on the EAW to the Commons and then May reneges on Ghis promise.

Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.

Poppycock, he has always done exactly what he said he would do on the EU.

- He promised to take the party out of the EPP group. Lots of people said he wouldn't. He did.

- He said he would vote for a referendum on Lisbon. He did.

- He promised he would not 'let the matter rest' there. He has been true to that.

- He said he would implement the Referendum Lock. Done, and dusted, and part of UK law.

- He said he would veto EU treaty change in 2011. He did.

- He said we wouldn't be paying the £1.7bn demanded for 1st December, but would pay a lot less. He's negotiated that.

- He promised to get reforms on the EAW. Done, with the three main objections addressed.

- He promised a vote on the EAW before the by-election. We had it tonight.

@KLE4

'Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.'

Spot on,add to that Cameron is crap at negotiating, the referendum would be basically mid term when governments are at their height of unpopularity and after another round of austerity.

A perfect storm and yet they still can't win.

The realty is that UKIP enjoy the gravy train just as much as the rest of the political elite,the result of a referendum,one way or another, would be their demise..

Sean_F said:

Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?

Why on earth do you think I want a 'massive vote to stay in the EU'? You Kippers are so obsessed you can't understand a sensible position, or distinguish a prediction from a wish.

I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave. Of course the Out side would have to make a coherent case, which so far they are signally failing to do, or even attempt.

However, how I would vote doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?

Why on earth do you think I want a 'massive vote to stay in the EU'? You Kippers are so obsessed you can't understand a sensible position, or distinguish a prediction from a wish.

I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave.

However, that doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).

That too is my belief. I can only see the UK leaving the EU if there was some great European economic meltdown that threatened to drag us down with it, when all other arguments would be overriden.

As a eurosceptic, my only hope is that the EU crumbles of its own accord, as the UK ain't leaving it first.

JohnLilburne said:

If anyone does defect to UKIP now or after next week's by-election, would they resign and call a by-election (which would be close to Christmas), wait and call one in the New Year, or stay put until the GE? And can UKIP MPs move the writ? (Yes I know any MP can but the convention is the ex-MP's party does it).

Even if convention allowed, no one would call a by-election so close to the GE, they would be - quite rightly - punished at the ballot box for wasting people's time.

to answer the question in the original tweet, yes, at 4.17am.