Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 10m 10 minutes ago All vox pops after debate critical of Kelly Tolhurst. Will "Kelly factor" be more significant than any anti-Reckless sentiment? #RSVote
Seems like the Labour candidate did the best in the debate. I wonder how many watched and if it will make a difference.
On the point about by-elections -- in 1997, there was one as late as the end of February on the Wirral, barely two months before the election. There'd probably still be a window to squeeze in some more if there's any more defections before Xmas.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 10m 10 minutes ago All vox pops after debate critical of Kelly Tolhurst. Will "Kelly factor" be more significant than any anti-Reckless sentiment? #RSVote
Seems like the Labour candidate did the best in the debate. I wonder how many watched and if it will make a difference.
She was really awful, and was actually exposed as a hypocrite on at least two occasions.
If enough people watched it Id think of backing labour to come second... Anyone want to lay odds?
The labour candidate spoke really well and I think would make a good MP
INCREDIBLE HOW MANY Tories in here called this by election so wrong
"Ukip criticised after laying wreath in Chatham with party's branding at remembrance service
A poignant remembrance service attended by war veterans and their families flared into a political row after a Ukip candidate laid a wreath on behalf of his party.
Steve Newton, who will stand in the Chatham and Aylesford constituency in next year’s general election, placed his floral tribute, embellished with his party’s branding, at the memorial in Victoria Gardens, Chatham, yesterday.
The gesture angered his fellow politicians. Chatham MP Tracey Crouch and Medway Council Labour group leader Vince Maple branded it “distasteful” and “totally inappropriate”":
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
Change the voting system to PR, let the sceptics split off and form a coalition with them. You've still got 6 months to do it, stop faffing around and get it done. The alternative is your decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government, after which PR probably gets enacted anyway.
The fault line in the Tory party over the EU could easily be remedied. All it would need is a Tory leader to come out and say "We want to restrict EU migration to 150k a year, opt out the CAP and be able to negotiate our own trade deals. If we don't get two out of the three, I'll campaign for replacing our membership with a free trade deal."
The whole Tory party, except Ken Clarke, would back that position. UKIP would be neutralised. The public would support it. The Tories would romp home with a good sized majority.
And yet they refuse to do it. For what purpose? A handful of votes in the European parliament and avoiding country of origin labelling. It's ridiculous.
What kind of free trade deal, and how much should they concede to get it? They'd be even more divided on that than they are on the EU.
"Ukip criticised after laying wreath in Chatham with party's branding at remembrance service
A poignant remembrance service attended by war veterans and their families flared into a political row after a Ukip candidate laid a wreath on behalf of his party.
Steve Newton, who will stand in the Chatham and Aylesford constituency in next year’s general election, placed his floral tribute, embellished with his party’s branding, at the memorial in Victoria Gardens, Chatham, yesterday.
The gesture angered his fellow politicians. Chatham MP Tracey Crouch and Medway Council Labour group leader Vince Maple branded it “distasteful” and “totally inappropriate”":
Beeston Conservative Club laid a wreath with their name on it at our local ceremony. We didn't really think it was something we should complain about - one can debate these things but in the end we shouldn't be squabbling over Remembrance Day. Perhaps the emblem makes it a slightly different case.
Kelly Tolhurst: local homes for local people, we don't want people from Bristol here!
Carswell ran on a similar platform in Clacton.
Once these people have secures the external borders they can get to work setting up checkpoints to stop people migrating between towns.
You jest but with London being gentrified the local authorities don't want the social housing tenants hanging around making the place look untidy and taking up space they could rent out or sell to the rich.. So new homes are being built in areas where local people don't want them in the suburbs.
You look at all the places in the Se where Ukip are doing well, and most have in common the fact that they are starting to be used as dumping grounds for the people that inner London don't want
It was 1.58 at least and the Cons were at 7 over the weekend.
I'd be surprised if it goes much lower than 1.5 before the election. It ought to do but I think there will always be enough people hoping for a majority and placing bets based on that hope.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 10m 10 minutes ago All vox pops after debate critical of Kelly Tolhurst. Will "Kelly factor" be more significant than any anti-Reckless sentiment? #RSVote
Seems like the Labour candidate did the best in the debate. I wonder how many watched and if it will make a difference.
She was really awful, and was actually exposed as a hypocrite on at least two occasions.
If enough people watched it Id think of backing labour to come second... Anyone want to lay odds?
The labour candidate spoke really well and I think would make a good MP
INCREDIBLE HOW MANY Tories in here called this by election so wrong
Watched a bit - Reckless is very much the Incumbent MP, solid but a bit smug, Tolhurst looks out of her depth, Khan (the Labour candidate) is lively and punchy, as is the Green.
Kelly Tolhurst: local homes for local people, we don't want people from Bristol here!
It is true Kelly could use some polishing when it comes to media performances. However she is both authentic and a genuine local, factors that play well in R & S. Also she is driven, diligent and not afraid of hard work and for those reasons might potentially make a good constituency MP. A more up to date poll in R & S would be helpful as it is possible the gap is continuing to close although Reckless must remain strong favourite.
Kelly Tolhurst: local homes for local people, we don't want people from Bristol here!
Carswell ran on a similar platform in Clacton.
Once these people have secures the external borders they can get to work setting up checkpoints to stop people migrating between towns.
You jest but with London being gentrified the local authorities don't want the social housing tenants hanging around making the place look untidy and taking up space they could rent out or sell to the rich.. So new homes are being built in areas where local people don't want them in the suburbs.
You look at all the places in the Se where Ukip are doing well, and most have in common the fact that they are starting to be used as dumping grounds for the people that inner London don't want
Interesting - that sort-of solves the conundrum of the anti-immigration party doing well in places that hardly have any (foreign) immigration:
1) Foreign immigration, which you can makes laws about, serves as a proxy for domestic immigration, which you can't. 2) (Arguably, at a bit of a stretch) foreign immigration is indirectly causing domestic immigration. (I say at a stretch because London gentrification would be happening even without foreign immigration.)
- He promised to get reforms on the EAW. Done, with the three main objections addressed.
The problem with these reforms is they are worthless, because they will be adjudicated by the European Courts, not our courts, and Europe doesn't follow our interpretation. See Mr Hannan on that subject a few hours ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqGUHeaRa2Q
Before the vote, I tried to explain the EAW thing to a colleague, an educated and intelligent adult. After putting up with my rambling about statutory instruments and programme motions for a graciously long period of time, he said: “I didn’t understand a word of that, but I understand that the Government has behaved like a sack of greased weasels.”
Comments
All vox pops after debate critical of Kelly Tolhurst. Will "Kelly factor" be more significant than any anti-Reckless sentiment? #RSVote
Seems like the Labour candidate did the best in the debate. I wonder how many watched and if it will make a difference.
If enough people watched it Id think of backing labour to come second... Anyone want to lay odds?
The labour candidate spoke really well and I think would make a good MP
INCREDIBLE HOW MANY Tories in here called this by election so wrong
Why on earth do people do that? It's like going to an auction where a house Is being bid on at £200k and offering £300k
A poignant remembrance service attended by war veterans and their families flared into a political row after a Ukip candidate laid a wreath on behalf of his party.
Steve Newton, who will stand in the Chatham and Aylesford constituency in next year’s general election, placed his floral tribute, embellished with his party’s branding, at the memorial in Victoria Gardens, Chatham, yesterday.
The gesture angered his fellow politicians. Chatham MP Tracey Crouch and Medway Council Labour group leader Vince Maple branded it “distasteful” and “totally inappropriate”":
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/storm-over-ukip-poppy-wreath-26696/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkqa4Yduikc
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Once these people have secures the external borders they can get to work setting up checkpoints to stop people migrating between towns.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/11/06/ukip-by-election-candidate-praises-colonel-gaddafi-for-immigration-stance-4937492/
You look at all the places in the Se where Ukip are doing well, and most have in common the fact that they are starting to be used as dumping grounds for the people that inner London don't want
1) Foreign immigration, which you can makes laws about, serves as a proxy for domestic immigration, which you can't.
2) (Arguably, at a bit of a stretch) foreign immigration is indirectly causing domestic immigration. (I say at a stretch because London gentrification would be happening even without foreign immigration.)
http://www.mandyboylett.co.uk/about-me/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqGUHeaRa2Q
https://www.cambridge.gov.uk/queen-ediths-ward-by-election
It's the only Cambridge ward not in the eponymous constituency. Instead it's located in Andrew Lansley's South Cambridgeshire seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04plxjz/south-east-today-the-battle-for-rochester-and-strood
View of R&S cands. Reckless kept cool in hostile room. Con abrasive. Lab impressive. Lib Dem half asleep. Green genuinely up for it #RSVote”
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11222123/The-Government-has-behaved-like-a-sack-of-greased-weasels.html
take focus off Ed.
Ed stays.
Biggest ectoral asset to Tories
Simmple......