Cameron forced to run back to the Commons from Mansion House in his white tie getup to defend a government position that it seems clear the government didn't understand - who'd want to be Michael Gove tonight?
You do have to ask just how terrified are they of any public split over yerp to conclude that a non-debate followed by a non-vote would pass inspection.
Anyway, funny to hear my local MP the delectable Mr Wharton claim that Labour prevented a vote on the arrest warrant. I thought that Bercow stating explicitly there was NO debate or vote on EAW tonight and the massed consternation and uproar off his own benches would have sunk in....
The fault line in the Tory party over the EU could easily be remedied. All it would need is a Tory leader to come out and say "We want to restrict EU migration to 150k a year, opt out the CAP and be able to negotiate our own trade deals. If we don't get two out of the three, I'll campaign for replacing our membership with a free trade deal."
The whole Tory party, except Ken Clarke, would back that position. UKIP would be neutralised. The public would support it. The Tories would romp home with a good sized majority.
And yet they refuse to do it. For what purpose? A handful of votes in the European parliament and avoiding country of origin labelling. It's ridiculous.
This is true only in your wildest dreams. They would certainly romp home to a very good sized majority on such a prospectus, were you the only elector.
As far as I can see, no change in the ladbrokes market for next Tory to defect to UKIP, so if you think there's anything in the rebel list might be worth a look?
Also, no change in the Miliband still lab leader market, so if you think he's bound to stay pile into the 1/6!
Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.
Twitter Dan Hodges @DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.
Only Hollobone, Bone and Nuttall are possible UKIP defectors from the rebels on the first motion (20/1 or below with Ladbrokes), so it seems that the government annoyed a lot of their more moderate backbenchers with their actions.
Do we think the public care much about tonight's omnishambling?
No, but all little events add to the general narrative that people form, or the political atmosphere that will inform them, it does have a cumulative effect, and occasionally the little events can strike a chord with a small section of the public for good and ill. The cry of 'no one really cares' is so often true, but it is still somehow overused as well.
The rebels on the substantive vote (Graham Stringer is Labour and Sammy Wilson DUP). At first glance I'd say about half are from the 2010 intake
Afriyie, Adam Baker, Steve Barclay, Stephen Baron, Mr John Brady, Mr Graham Bridgen, Andrew Cash, Sir William Davis, rh Mr David de Bois, Nick Drax, Richard Goldsmith, Zac Gray, Mr James Heaton-Harris, Chris Henderson, Gordon Jenkin, Mr Bernard Kelly, Chris Leigh, Sir Edward Lewis, Dr Julian Lilley, rh Mr Peter Main, Mrs Anne McCartney, Jason McCartney, Karl Mills, Nigel Morris, Anne Marie Nuttall, Mr David Percy, Andrew Raab, Mr Dominic Redwood, rh Mr John Rees-Mogg, Jacob Reevell, Simon Robertson, Mr Laurence Shepherd, Sir Richard Stringer, Graham Syms, Mr Robert Turner, Mr Andrew Whittingdale, Mr John Wiggin, Bill Wilson, Sammy
The fault line in the Tory party over the EU could easily be remedied. All it would need is a Tory leader to come out and say "We want to restrict EU migration to 150k a year, opt out the CAP and be able to negotiate our own trade deals. If we don't get two out of the three, I'll campaign for replacing our membership with a free trade deal."
The whole Tory party, except Ken Clarke, would back that position. UKIP would be neutralised. The public would support it. The Tories would romp home with a good sized majority.
And yet they refuse to do it. For what purpose? A handful of votes in the European parliament and avoiding country of origin labelling. It's ridiculous.
This is true only in your wildest dreams. They would certainly romp home to a very good sized majority on such a prospectus, were you the only elector.
The vast majority of the country wants to repatriate powers, especially immigration control. When we have European elections, the party of out, UKIP, storms home and the party of in, the Lib Dems, gets hammered. When there's a public debate between Farage and Clegg on the two sides, viewers award the win to the out side, and say he has the best arguments. When Cameron vetoed the EU treaty he got a big polling boost. When he refused to take part in the bailouts, he got a polling boost. When he went back on those actions through the backdoor the polling boost melted away. Euroscepticism is popular. You have to be blind to the evidence not to see it.
If the Tories just got a third of the UKIP vote back - which they could easily if they were eurosceptic and willing to curb immigration properly - they would poll in the high 30s. That would be majority territory.
Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....
Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.
Oopps
I'm knucking fackered tonight
Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You joined the LD?
The Lib Dems won't have me.
You are too left wing?
Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.
What over ?
I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.
One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put buIrning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.
Don't worry mr eagles,it's happened to me and a big thankyou for your support when it did ;-)
I bang on about mass immigration when labour were in power and now,poorly posted sometimes by myself I must admit on the subject ;-) and I get called a BNP member ;-)
This from a guy who voted in Galloway(sorry everyone) and my local respect councillor ;-) I did vote ukip in the European elections though ;-)
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! We shouldn't have to wade through UKIP party diary stuff that is better advertised on twitter?!
The fault line in the Tory party over the EU could easily be remedied. All it would need is a Tory leader to come out and say "We want to restrict EU migration to 150k a year, opt out the CAP and be able to negotiate our own trade deals. If we don't get two out of the three, I'll campaign for replacing our membership with a free trade deal."
The whole Tory party, except Ken Clarke, would back that position. UKIP would be neutralised. The public would support it. The Tories would romp home with a good sized majority.
And yet they refuse to do it. For what purpose? A handful of votes in the European parliament and avoiding country of origin labelling. It's ridiculous.
This is true only in your wildest dreams. They would certainly romp home to a very good sized majority on such a prospectus, were you the only elector.
The vast majority of the country wants to repatriate powers, especially immigration control. When we have European elections, the party of out, UKIP, storms home and the party of in, the Lib Dems, gets hammered. When there's a public debate between Farage and Clegg on the two sides, viewers award the win to the out side, and say he has the best arguments. When Cameron vetoed the EU treaty he got a big polling boost. When he refused to take part in the bailouts, he got a polling boost. When he went back on those actions through the backdoor the polling boost melted away. Euroscepticism is popular. You have to be blind to the evidence not to see it.
Short term sugar rushes over such matters is likely to be replaced by fears, when concerns over jobs and growth come to the fore.
Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....
Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.
Oopps
I'm knucking fackered tonight
Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You joined the LD?
The Lib Dems won't have me.
You are too left wing?
Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.
What over ?
I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.
One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put burning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.
LOL!
There was also the time another poster, who said I was a BNP supporter, after I had said the following (from before the last election)
"I hope Nick Griffin wins Barking, mostly so he will be captioned "Nick Griffin, Barking MP" which seems very apt"
They could be cunning those BNP supporters, you might have been testing the ground by making a sincere statement but framing it as insincere just in case someone called you out. Stay vigilant comrades.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....
Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.
Oopps
I'm knucking fackered tonight
Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You joined the LD?
The Lib Dems won't have me.
You are too left wing?
Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.
What over ?
I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.
One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put buIrning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.
Don't worry mr eagles,it's happened to me and a big thankyou for your support when it did ;-)
I bang on about mass immigration when labour were in power and now,poorly posted sometimes by myself I must admit on the subject ;-) and I get called a BNP member ;-)
This from a guy who voted in Galloway(sorry everyone) and my local respect councillor ;-) I did vote ukip in the European elections though ;-)
I'll come and defend you and those unfairly accused of an ....ism.
Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....
Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.
Oopps
I'm knucking fackered tonight
Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You joined the LD?
The Lib Dems won't have me.
You are too left wing?
Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.
What over ?
I once said I wouldn't want to live next door to a Muslim family.
One particularly stupid poster concluded that I was a racist, and was the sort who put buIrning crosses in the gardens of Muslim families.
Don't worry mr eagles,it's happened to me and a big thankyou for your support when it did ;-)
I bang on about mass immigration when labour were in power and now,poorly posted sometimes by myself I must admit on the subject ;-) and I get called a BNP member ;-)
This from a guy who voted in Galloway(sorry everyone) and my local respect councillor ;-) I did vote ukip in the European elections though ;-)
You will come HOME eventually Tyke and I will be there ready to shake your hand ;-)
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! We shouldn't have to wade through UKIP party diary stuff that is better advertised on twitter?!
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ Poor Lib Dem candidate. Asked why Clegg and others have not been to Rochester and Strood. "I am sure that somebody will come down".
The fault line in the Tory party over the EU could easily be remedied. All it would need is a Tory leader to come out and say "We want to restrict EU migration to 150k a year, opt out the CAP and be able to negotiate our own trade deals. If we don't get two out of the three, I'll campaign for replacing our membership with a free trade deal."
The whole Tory party, except Ken Clarke, would back that position. UKIP would be neutralised. The public would support it. The Tories would romp home with a good sized majority.
And yet they refuse to do it. For what purpose? A handful of votes in the European parliament and avoiding country of origin labelling. It's ridiculous.
This is true only in your wildest dreams. They would certainly romp home to a very good sized majority on such a prospectus, were you the only elector.
The vast majority of the country wants to repatriate powers, especially immigration control. When we have European elections, the party of out, UKIP, storms home and the party of in, the Lib Dems, gets hammered. When there's a public debate between Farage and Clegg on the two sides, viewers award the win to the out side, and say he has the best arguments. When Cameron vetoed the EU treaty he got a big polling boost. When he refused to take part in the bailouts, he got a polling boost. When he went back on those actions through the backdoor the polling boost melted away. Euroscepticism is popular. You have to be blind to the evidence not to see it.
Short term sugar rushes over such matters is likely to be replaced by fears, when concerns over jobs and growth come to the fore.
Exactly: fear over the terrible economic performance of the Eurozone (which will continue to get get worse) spreading here, and fear over immigration putting pressure on jobs and wages. Meanwhile the out side can say they will limit immigration, maintain trade, and improve exports to the rest of the world.
Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.
Twitter Dan Hodges @DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Cameron forced to run back to the Commons from Mansion House in his white tie getup to defend a government position that it seems clear the government didn't understand - who'd want to be Michael Gove tonight?
You do have to ask just how terrified are they of any public split over yerp to conclude that a non-debate followed by a non-vote would pass inspection.
Anyway, funny to hear my local MP the delectable Mr Wharton claim that Labour prevented a vote on the arrest warrant. I thought that Bercow stating explicitly there was NO debate or vote on EAW tonight and the massed consternation and uproar off his own benches would have sunk in....
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
One thing that I have been confused about for a while is how the HoC managed to vote for 35 pieces of EU legislation that we had previously opted out of which have created or, in most cases recreated, new EU competencies without triggering a referendum.
The European Union Act 2011 is a remarkably complicated piece of legislation but this still strikes me as odd.
Come on, the Referendum lock was never more than a joke.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.
Twitter Dan Hodges @DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.
I like the way Dan Hodges is out and out Tory ramping these days. Wonder when he will officially come out and admit it?
My understanding is that he joined Conservative forces some time ago. I think he was a Labour official at some stage, now on the Tory left
I got the feeling a month or so ago he was starting to worry Labour might still pull off a win - he couldn't dial back his claims of crapness and likely to lose given the extent of his writings on the subject, but it felt like there were pieces which acknowledged that Cameron is really pretty crap at handling UKIP and his party and it just might end up costing him.
Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.
Twitter Dan Hodges @DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.
I like the way Dan Hodges is out and out Tory ramping these days. Wonder when he will officially come out and admit it?
My understanding is that he joined Conservative forces some time ago. I think he was a Labour official at some stage, now on the Tory left
The fact Ed winning meant he missed out on the job David had promised him and he has been very bitter about it ever since. If David had won, this out and out Tory could have been running the Labour campaign as we speak.....***SHUDDERS***
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
An accurate analysis. The deselecting of troublesome eurosceptics may be a wise strategy for the Caneroons to adopt
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! Have you lot not got your party site for stuff like this?!
Very poor judgement from Reckless and his team tonight.
Twitter Dan Hodges @DPJHodges now60 seconds ago London, England Medway hospital ask Mark Reckless and Ukip not to use them for political purposes. So, true to form, Ukip and Reckless attack the hospital.
I like the way Dan Hodges is out and out Tory ramping these days. Wonder when he will officially come out and admit it?
My understanding is that he joined Conservative forces some time ago. I think he was a Labour official at some stage, now on the Tory left
I got the feeling a month or so ago he was starting to worry Labour might still pull off a win - he couldn't dial back his claims of crapness and likely to lose given the extent of his writings on the subject, but it felt like there were pieces which acknowledged that Cameron is really pretty crap at handling UKIP and his party and it just might end up costing him.
ConHome has been a Tory backbench mouthpiece since it was bought out by Ashcroft and Tim Montgomerie handed over the reigns to ex-Tory MP Paul Goodman. Or it was the last time I looked. Frankly the articles are so dull I've stopped bothering going there anymore. Goodman's ruined it.
Today once again the Tories prove that they are the reincarnation of one of Kenny Everett's most infamous characters!
Anyone got a different pop cultural analogy for someone who doesn't know who Kenny Everett is? It's like when people starting mocking Cameron as Flashman all over again, I was adrift.
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
An accurate analysis. The deselecting of troublesome eurosceptics may be a wise strategy for the Caneroons to adopt
You know that the local Tory parties would resist mightily such a thing and if it was ever successful then the eurosceptic MP would defect to UKIP costing the Tories the seat.
Scrapheap and I's Dry but obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You've missed a 'not' there I believe in quite a significant place....
Only 38 headbangers left as well post tonight... clever tactics to reveal themselves albeit one was the UKIP man needing a clean pair of pants.
Oopps
I'm knucking fackered tonight
Scrapheap and I's Dry but NOT obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party probably picked up a few new members this evening.
You joined the LD?
The Lib Dems won't have me.
You are too left wing?
Please, I've been called on here a far right extremist.
I've got 'hard left' views for my anti-kipper snobbery here on pb too....
Dude, one of the Kipper idiots on here said, I tolerated child rape so the Tories could do well.
You can't help but pity people with such a mindset.
One called Labour, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you
When i told him I thought this was a disgraceful comment. He accused me of being responsible as I am from S Yorks Even though I am not on either count
Look, mate.
If you have the Sheffield Wednesday logo as your avatar, stop complaining when people accuse you of coming from South Yorkshire.
The average Owls supporter does not get your kids raped in front of you.
Even the Asian ones and or the Lab supporting ones, though eh?
You see that is where you went wrong BJO, if you had put a Kopite avatar of Man U avatar, you could never have been accused of being from Liverpool or Manchester.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! We shouldn't have to wade through UKIP party diary stuff that is better advertised on twitter?!
Today once again the Tories prove that they are the reincarnation of one of Kenny Everett's most infamous characters!
Anyone got a different pop cultural analogy for someone who doesn't know who Kenny Everett is? It's like when people starting mocking Cameron as Flashman all over again, I was adrift.
Are we now going to be subjected to a daily running commentary trailing every UKIP announcement or media appearance that features a UKIP politician on PB?! We shouldn't have to wade through UKIP party diary stuff that is better advertised on twitter?!
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum. .
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
An accurate analysis. The deselecting of troublesome eurosceptics may be a wise strategy for the Caneroons to adopt
The best thing that could ever happen to UKIP. 40 or so Conservative MPs would become 40 or so UKIP MP's.
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum. .
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?
I don't see that. Euroscepticism is widely held in the country, but not deeply held. After a referendum campaign in which - as you say - all politicians, all the mainstream media and all big business leaders (the fat cats at the CBI) hammer away at the so-called negative effects on the economy of EU withdrawal, 'In' would win with ease.
Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.
The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.
Today once again the Tories prove that they are the reincarnation of one of Kenny Everett's most infamous characters!
Anyone got a different pop cultural analogy for someone who doesn't know who Kenny Everett is? It's like when people starting mocking Cameron as Flashman all over again, I was adrift.
Ask him if he'll be claiming on expenses for the dry cleaning bill for having his suit trousers cleaned.
I say comparing Carswell and his fellow pig dog traitor to Judas is unfair.
Judas had the decency to commit suicide after his betrayal
Yes, that's what Matthew 27:3–10 says.
But, Acts 1:16-19 mentions he fell and he burst open and had his bowels gush out. Not clear if this was after he hanged himself.
I'll ask my biblical expert at work for how these two potentially contradictory accounts are reconciled.
IIRC, in The Passion of the Christ, Mel Gibson reconciled that, by Judas hanging himself, but the rope snapping, and he falling to the ground, and his bowels gushed out as his body did not cope well with the fall to the ground.
On topic no the party will never resolve its differences and will slowly destroy itself until it becomes an irrelevance.
Today Cameron proved his true Blairite nature. It was shameful. I only wonder whether it might have precipitated a few more letters to the 1922 committee. From a Kipper viewpoint it was a marvelous day. How stupid are the Tories to give UKIP the perfect event to use to discredit the referendum promise?
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
The problem is one can't believe Cameron on anything. He marches up to the top of the Hill over the £1.7 bn demand, and then he marches back down again; he introduces a referendum lock, but it doesn't apply when powers over criminal justice are handed over to the EU; he promises a vote on the EAW to the Commons and then May reneges on Ghis promise.
Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
While it would not halt their level of momentum at this point, it would be pretty hilarious if after all this nonsense the Tories managed to win in this by-election. Imagine the reactions of some MP poised to defect, suddenly uncertain once more, and deciding that perhaps they should just go on being a Tory MP, even as they act as a UKIP MP once they get reelected, just without the official label.
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum. .
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?
I don't see that. Euroscepticism is widely held in the country, but not deeply held. After a referendum campaign in which - as you say - all politicians, all the mainstream media and all big business leaders (the fat cats at the CBI) hammer away at the so-called negative effects on the economy of EU withdrawal, 'In' would win with ease.
Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.
The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.
In Scotland yes improved on its share, don't underestimate how hated the media political elite is. Business won't be uniform on the issue either.
I don't see that. Euroscepticism is widely held in the country, but not deeply held. After a referendum campaign in which - as you say - all politicians, all the mainstream media and all big business leaders (the fat cats at the CBI) hammer away at the so-called negative effects on the economy of EU withdrawal, 'In' would win with ease.
Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.
The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
This does certainly raise the interesting question of whether the Conservative Party could actually hold together in the lead-up to an EU Referendum. Critics of Cameron have of course this completely the wrong way round; the remarkable thing is not that the party is torn on the subject - it has been for a quarter of a century - but that he has managed (just) to hold the line for nine years.
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
The problem is one can't believe Cameron on anything. He marches up to the top of the Hill over the £1.7 bn demand, and then he marches back down again; he introduces a referendum lock, but it doesn't apply when powers over criminal justice are handed over to the EU; he promises a vote on the EAW to the Commons and then May reneges on Ghis promise.
Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.
The problem is one can't believe Cameron on anything. He marches up to the top of the Hill over the £1.7 bn demand, and then he marches back down again; he introduces a referendum lock, but it doesn't apply when powers over criminal justice are handed over to the EU; he promises a vote on the EAW to the Commons and then May reneges on Ghis promise.
Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.
Poppycock, he has always done exactly what he said he would do on the EU.
- He promised to take the party out of the EPP group. Lots of people said he wouldn't. He did.
- He said he would vote for a referendum on Lisbon. He did.
- He promised he would not 'let the matter rest' there. He has been true to that.
- He said he would implement the Referendum Lock. Done, and dusted, and part of UK law.
- He said he would veto EU treaty change in 2011. He did.
- He said we wouldn't be paying the £1.7bn demanded for 1st December, but would pay a lot less. He's negotiated that.
- He promised to get reforms on the EAW. Done, with the three main objections addressed.
- He promised a vote on the EAW before the by-election. We had it tonight.
@AndrewCooper__: "I have never stood for the leadership of my party & regardless of the circumstances, I never will" Alan Johnson. Game over for Labour, then
@AndrewCooper__: "I have never stood for the leadership of my party & regardless of the circumstances, I never will" Alan Johnson. Game over for Labour, then
If anyone does defect to UKIP now or after next week's by-election, would they resign and call a by-election (which would be close to Christmas), wait and call one in the New Year, or stay put until the GE? And can UKIP MPs move the writ? (Yes I know any MP can but the convention is the ex-MP's party does it).
'Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.'
Spot on,add to that Cameron is crap at negotiating, the referendum would be basically mid term when governments are at their height of unpopularity and after another round of austerity.
A perfect storm and yet they still can't win.
The realty is that UKIP enjoy the gravy train just as much as the rest of the political elite,the result of a referendum,one way or another, would be their demise..
I will say that despite their otherwise boundless confidence and insistence that the British people overwhelmingly dislike the EU (which is true), it is curious to me that it seems to be a common line that merely having a referendum is not enough, because if Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.
Yes, it's a completely bonkers position. I really can't see how anyone can propose it with a straight face.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
Managed two mins of listening to Kelly Tolhurst before having to mute... The Tories would have done better to get the labour candidate to stand for them, she was quite impressive
As for the betting, someone is asking for two grand at 1.1 ukip, so it doesn't look like there's too much too worry about for us kipperoonies
Have the tories started to ore tend they weren't reakky trying in Rochester yet?
Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?
Why on earth do you think I want a 'massive vote to stay in the EU'? You Kippers are so obsessed you can't understand a sensible position, or distinguish a prediction from a wish.
I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave. Of course the Out side would have to make a coherent case, which so far they are signally failing to do, or even attempt.
However, how I would vote doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).
Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?
Why on earth do you think I want a 'massive vote to stay in the EU'? You Kippers are so obsessed you can't understand a sensible position, or distinguish a prediction from a wish.
I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave.
However, that doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).
We are no more obsessed than you.
Anyway, I am apparently the first kipper in five years to tell you what I want, happy now?
Given that you want a massive vote to stay in the EU, so these wretched eurosceptics will go away, why do you think eurosceptics should play on your terms?
Why on earth do you think I want a 'massive vote to stay in the EU'? You Kippers are so obsessed you can't understand a sensible position, or distinguish a prediction from a wish.
I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave.
However, that doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).
That too is my belief. I can only see the UK leaving the EU if there was some great European economic meltdown that threatened to drag us down with it, when all other arguments would be overriden.
As a eurosceptic, my only hope is that the EU crumbles of its own accord, as the UK ain't leaving it first.
The realty is that UKIP enjoy the gravy train just as much as the rest of the political elite,the result of a referendum,one way or another, would be their demise..
Just like the Irish Nationalists, Parti Quebecois and those Scots Nats who are about to be wiped out in Scotland at the next election.
As long as the EU is in permanent recession, people will question the value of its continued existence.
If anyone does defect to UKIP now or after next week's by-election, would they resign and call a by-election (which would be close to Christmas), wait and call one in the New Year, or stay put until the GE? And can UKIP MPs move the writ? (Yes I know any MP can but the convention is the ex-MP's party does it).
Even if convention allowed, no one would call a by-election so close to the GE, they would be - quite rightly - punished at the ballot box for wasting people's time.
That too is my belief. I can only see the UK leaving the EU if there was some great European economic meltdown that threatened to drag us down with it, when all other arguments would be overriden.
As a eurosceptic, my only hope is that the EU crumbles of its own accord, as the UK ain't leaving it first.
My best hope is that we might be able gently to disengage, but that would require the EU itself to split more decisively into a central Eurozone core, and a looser set of non-Eurozone members. There was a time a couple of years ago when that looked quite a likely possibility. It looks less likely now, but it might re-appear since the structural problems of the Eurozone have not been addressed.
Comments
You do have to ask just how terrified are they of any public split over yerp to conclude that a non-debate followed by a non-vote would pass inspection.
Anyway, funny to hear my local MP the delectable Mr Wharton claim that Labour prevented a vote on the arrest warrant. I thought that Bercow stating explicitly there was NO debate or vote on EAW tonight and the massed consternation and uproar off his own benches would have sunk in....
Any possible defectors, however, will now have been carried over the line.
the Green man got a big round of applause for his attack on the pigdog traitor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04nvgpn/south-east-today-10112014
Also, no change in the Miliband still lab leader market, so if you think he's bound to stay pile into the 1/6!
With that, goodnight all!
When i told him I thought this was a disgraceful comment. He accused me of being responsible as I am from S Yorks
Even though I am not on either count
"I hope Nick Griffin wins Barking, mostly so he will be captioned "Nick Griffin, Barking MP" which seems very apt"
If the Tories just got a third of the UKIP vote back - which they could easily if they were eurosceptic and willing to curb immigration properly - they would poll in the high 30s. That would be majority territory.
I bang on about mass immigration when labour were in power and now,poorly posted sometimes by myself I must admit on the subject ;-) and I get called a BNP member ;-)
This from a guy who voted in Galloway(sorry everyone) and my local respect councillor ;-) I did vote ukip in the European elections though ;-)
If you have the Sheffield Wednesday logo as your avatar, stop complaining when people accuse you of coming from South Yorkshire.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
Poor Lib Dem candidate. Asked why Clegg and others have not been to Rochester and Strood. "I am sure that somebody will come down".
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-11-10/government-gets-in-a-mess-over-european-arrest-warrant/
How good it is not to be a member of the Conservative party any more!
I have to say that I don't think one can be confident on this. Critics of Cameron are completely immune to reason, to the point that they are furiously adamant that he is the only obstacle to a referendum in which the British people, fed up with the EU, would triumphantly vote Out! and regain British freedoms, and at the same time want to sabotage the possibility of such a referendum.
What can be done, faced with such irrationality? The conundrum has defeated four successive Tory leaders, which suggests there is no solution.
All the more reason, I fear, for thinking that we at severe risk of a decade or more of weak and disastrous Labour-led government.
Even the Asian ones and or the Lab supporting ones, though eh?
Not thought of a comic variation on Reckless to go with Carsewell yet?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aPrOuPxLno
And the reason for the Kenny Everett references is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI
Goodnight.
It's pretty pessimistic if nothing else. I'm hovering on the edge of EU support right now, I'm a hair's breath from just thinking it's not worth the aggravation and that we should get out and deal with the negative consequences when/if they come, but I've always felt Out would win if there were a vote. And clearly our leaders agree, or they would have tried to settle the issue sooner to do away with it as an issue, so why the glumness from UKIP?
But, Acts 1:16-19 mentions he fell and he burst open and had his bowels gush out. Not clear if this was after he hanged himself.
I'll ask my biblical expert at work for how these two potentially contradictory accounts are reconciled.
So what do they want? I've been asking for five years but have never had a coherent answer.
I think one is left with only one possible conclusion: that the BOOers know in their hearts that there actually is very little chance of ever winning an Out vote (that is certainly the case), and so they are just lashing out at Cameron as a displacement activity. That is the only explanation which vaguely fits the facts.
Importantly, 'In' would be a vote for the status quo - which, though I've got not stats to support it, I bet normally wins referendum votes.
The British people are a cautious bunch. Any spin from Cameron would easily work, IMO, if nothing else because people don't understand - or much care about - the details.
JackW is 120. Or so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNhTYJGjc2g
Goodnight.
Today Cameron proved his true Blairite nature. It was shameful. I only wonder whether it might have precipitated a few more letters to the 1922 committee. From a Kipper viewpoint it was a marvelous day. How stupid are the Tories to give UKIP the perfect event to use to discredit the referendum promise?
And with that I too am going to depart!
Cameron and co. are as trustworthy as Elmer Gantry.
It looks like he has cut it by 50%
gets coat
I want to bring back grammar schools.
I want to end Common Purpose and Bilderberg.
Coherent enough?
- He promised to take the party out of the EPP group. Lots of people said he wouldn't. He did.
- He said he would vote for a referendum on Lisbon. He did.
- He promised he would not 'let the matter rest' there. He has been true to that.
- He said he would implement the Referendum Lock. Done, and dusted, and part of UK law.
- He said he would veto EU treaty change in 2011. He did.
- He said we wouldn't be paying the £1.7bn demanded for 1st December, but would pay a lot less. He's negotiated that.
- He promised to get reforms on the EAW. Done, with the three main objections addressed.
- He promised a vote on the EAW before the by-election. We had it tonight.
'Cameron is campaigning for In, with the media behind him - that's weak, cowardly, out of touch Cameron and the evil MSM which is increasingly irrelevant btw - the British people will be fooled at the false claims of success about renegotiation and will be tricked into voting In, even though UKIP will be able to point out the lies.'
Spot on,add to that Cameron is crap at negotiating, the referendum would be basically mid term when governments are at their height of unpopularity and after another round of austerity.
A perfect storm and yet they still can't win.
The realty is that UKIP enjoy the gravy train just as much as the rest of the political elite,the result of a referendum,one way or another, would be their demise..
As for the betting, someone is asking for two grand at 1.1 ukip, so it doesn't look like there's too much too worry about for us kipperoonies
Have the tories started to ore tend they weren't reakky trying in Rochester yet?
I've repeatedly said that I think the balance of the argument is moving towards leaving; my final vote in any referendum would depend on the terms of the renegotiation. In the absence of sufficient protection for the City, I'd probably vote to leave. Of course the Out side would have to make a coherent case, which so far they are signally failing to do, or even attempt.
However, how I would vote doesn't alter the fact that the referendum would produce a big Stay In result. It's not a winnable proposition. The jobs argument will be politically unanswerable (whether it is true or not is irrelevant).
Anyway, I am apparently the first kipper in five years to tell you what I want, happy now?
As a eurosceptic, my only hope is that the EU crumbles of its own accord, as the UK ain't leaving it first.
As long as the EU is in permanent recession, people will question the value of its continued existence.