Can you handle two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com

I am looking forward to 2024.

As the gale rages by outside, there’s no Sunday Rawnsley this week as I guess he’s on break. But he did leave this commentary for a Guardian 2024 predictions round robin:

Spring or autumn is the choice facing the Tory leader. Anyone who claims to be certain what he will do is either a fool or a fibber, because he doesn’t know himself. Like any politician in his dire circumstances, he’s trying to keep his options open and his opponents guessing.

I forecast an autumn contest for two main reasons. There’s a better chance that the Bank of England will have started to cut interest rates by then. For many voters, reductions in inflation and borrowing costs will make a bigger difference to their quality of life than any tax cuts. My second reason… is the psychology of beleaguered incumbents who fear the verdict of the electorate. Leaders who aren’t confident of winning almost invariably delay the moment of reckoning in the hope that something will turn up to save them.

Meanwhile we can all nibble on a Sunday Hardman:

So even if the tax cuts they’ve been agitating for over the past year do turn up in March, Tory MPs are anxious about the budget kicking things off. “Let’s hope this starting gun doesn’t have duds like the party conference and the king’s speech,” says one junior minister

Sunak’s more recent refrain is “finish the job”: something he said repeatedly in his press conference about the Rwanda policy. Some of his aides think “finish the job” would be better in May when there is still a chance that things could get worse, than in autumn when the job looks so messy that voters might conclude it’s worth abandoning.

Half of the [Tory] party is already thinking about the leadership election after a polling day defeat, and will be campaigning more vigorously for their pitch to take over the party in that “election recovery” period than they will be for their current chief. Many will want to make pronouncements during the campaign so that they can say “I told you so” afterwards. Many of their colleagues will amplify those pronouncements.

Sunak will have to embrace a noisy, ill-disciplined campaign as there is little chance of him getting anything else. He has seen the virtues of this to some extent, concluding after his party held Uxbridge in the autumn that niche campaigns on local issues could allow the Conservatives to stem losses in other areas too. But he will probably get frustrated by the sense that while he is working relentlessly, his party won’t be beavering away in the same way.

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

Provided it doesn’t turn out to be the end of the world as we know it.

But right now, I feel fine.

On Topic, assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook, all we can conclude is that the election isn't planned to be on November 17. The more interesting question is why he wants to plant that date in the minds of Shipman's readership?

(In passing, "Shipman's readership" is surprisingly satisfying to say. I recommend it.)

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

Provided it doesn’t turn out to be the end of the world as we know it.

But right now, I feel fine.

On Topic, assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook, all we can conclude is that the election isn't planned to be on November 17. The more interesting question is why he wants to plant that date in the minds of Shipman's readership?

(In passing, "Shipman's readership" is surprisingly satisfying to say. I recommend it.)

As do I.

I’m sure our @Leon also feels fine, predicting one global catastrophe after another whilst assuming that his bank account and the walls of his Camden Town bedsit will somehow keep him safe.

Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, the US election/civil war, and the fragility of both western democracy and the financial/debt position of western economies and many of their consumers, will make this coming year an exceptionally fragile one.

I expect that global stock markets are going to lead into the coming year with good bull runs. But my advice would be to watch closely and always be thinking about the right time to sell.

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

Provided it doesn’t turn out to be the end of the world as we know it.

But right now, I feel fine.

On Topic, assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook, all we can conclude is that the election isn't planned to be on November 17. The more interesting question is why he wants to plant that date in the minds of Shipman's readership?

(In passing, "Shipman's readership" is surprisingly satisfying to say. I recommend it.)

As do I.

I’m sure our @Leon also feels fine, predicting one global catastrophe after another whilst assuming that his bank account and the walls of his Camden Town bedsit will keep him safe.

Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, the US election/civil war, and the fragility of both western democracy and the financial/debt position of western economies and many of their consumers, will make this coming year an exceptionally fragile one.

I expect that global stock markets are going to lead into the coming year with a good bull runs. But my advice would be to watch closely and always be thinking about the right time to sell.

We have had a remarkable Santa rally this year both in the US and the UK. This may be a good time to lock in some of that profit into bonds and gilts.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

There is more to life than new shoes.

Easter is early leaving space for a campaign in April.

Arsenal 1
Fulham 2

67 mins

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/67256002

Stuartinromford said:

...assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook...

http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html
http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/dungeon_a.html
http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/dungeon_b.html

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

"Can you handle two massive elections at the same time?"

Samantha says dealing with several polls at the same time is well within her capacity.

In other political news, she's off to a Welsh Labour event where the senior MP's name is said to be almost impossible to pronounce. She's always found the longest standing Welsh member a bit of a mouthful.

I thought we had agreed that we weren't accepting any more jokes from James Cleverley.

I'm sorry; I haven't a clue.

kinabalu said:

May is the national (and PB) interest choice but I think October.

I think it will be a date between tomorrow and January 31st 2025. I am a superb predictor.

#KnowYourLimits

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

Provided it doesn’t turn out to be the end of the world as we know it.

But right now, I feel fine.

On Topic, assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook, all we can conclude is that the election isn't planned to be on November 17. The more interesting question is why he wants to plant that date in the minds of Shipman's readership?

(In passing, "Shipman's readership" is surprisingly satisfying to say. I recommend it.)

As do I.

I’m sure our @Leon also feels fine, predicting one global catastrophe after another whilst assuming that his bank account and the walls of his Camden Town bedsit will somehow keep him safe.

Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, the US election/civil war, and the fragility of both western democracy and the financial/debt position of western economies and many of their consumers, will make this coming year an exceptionally fragile one.

I expect that global stock markets are going to lead into the coming year with good bull runs. But my advice would be to watch closely and always be thinking about the right time to sell.

I see you are loitering by my wheelie bins again

In a thread where I have not commented, where I am not mentioned, you can’t help mentioning me

It’s just fucking…. WEIRD. TBH

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

Provided it doesn’t turn out to be the end of the world as we know it.

But right now, I feel fine.

On Topic, assuming Levido has read the Evil Overlord Rulebook, all we can conclude is that the election isn't planned to be on November 17. The more interesting question is why he wants to plant that date in the minds of Shipman's readership?

(In passing, "Shipman's readership" is surprisingly satisfying to say. I recommend it.)

As do I.

I’m sure our @Leon also feels fine, predicting one global catastrophe after another whilst assuming that his bank account and the walls of his Camden Town bedsit will somehow keep him safe.

Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, the US election/civil war, and the fragility of both western democracy and the financial/debt position of western economies and many of their consumers, will make this coming year an exceptionally fragile one.

I expect that global stock markets are going to lead into the coming year with good bull runs. But my advice would be to watch closely and always be thinking about the right time to sell.

I see you are loitering by my wheelie bins again

In a thread where I have not commented, where I am not mentioned, you can’t help mentioning me

It’s just fucking…. WEIRD. TBH

Discussion of predictions of the end of the world inevitably conjured up an image of you sitting in your underpants tapping furiously away at the keyboard to the computer in your bedsit. I sincerely wish that it didn’t, but there we are.

viewcode said:

kinabalu said:

May is the national (and PB) interest choice but I think October.

I think it will be a date between tomorrow and January 31st 2025. I am a superb predictor.

#KnowYourLimits

We can do better than that.

We've got to have a five week campaign, so even if Rishi hauls everyone back for a dissolution this week, the earliest Thursday is February 8th, I think.

And not even Rishi can be daft enough to run an election campaign over Christmas (can he?), which puts the last sensible date as December 19th.

Given that just before Christmas is what happens if he continues to bottle it, it's more likely than it should be.

I will say one thing though about this prospect of November..

I had always assumed that if there was an autumn election, it would take place in October. Likely 17th.

November felt to me to be leaving it too late for a "scheduled" election (not like 2019). Darker nights, miserable weather, harder to persuade campaigners to get out on the trail. The start of the Christmas rush.

BUT,

Three factors why it may be a wildcard:

1) As noted above, the prospect of a few interest rate cuts having had the time to sink in;
2) The possibility of another autumn statement (more giveaways?)
3) The US election gamble. If you see the US dealing with disorder following the vote (and there must be a chance of that, whoever wins), do you try and run the "no time for change of government" strategy? High risk of that not working. But potentially high reward if it does.

I still think it should be May, and it will be dangerous for the Tories to delay it any further than that. But I ccan see the logic in November....

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

Sounds good. Hope you’re correct.
Personally I’d add substantial LibDem gains, but there you go.

Any decision to go on 12th November would be fully knowing and a wholly intentional attempt to have an election thrown into the air by a black swan event. They will hope that the shitstorm does ensue rapidly and, somehow, somehow, limits their defeat.

The biggest thing I'm worried about at the moment is the climate and shortly after geopolitical stability.

Worries about Taiwan and also, North and South Korea.

Other than that I expect us to all be here absolutely fine on 1st January 2025.

Snipping from @IanB2's post, quoting Rawnsley:

IanB2 said:

. . . I forecast an autumn contest for two main reasons. There’s a better chance that the Bank of England will have started to cut interest rates by then. For many voters, reductions in inflation and borrowing costs will make a bigger difference to their quality of life than any tax cuts. My second reason… is the psychology of beleaguered incumbents who fear the verdict of the electorate. Leaders who aren’t confident of winning almost invariably delay the moment of reckoning in the hope that something will turn up to save them.. . .

The salience of falling inflation in this decision leads me to ponder why we use the inflation measure we do - namely the rise in the price level over the last 12 months. That is telling us what the average inflation has been over the past year, not what it is right NOW. Is there no better measure available?
Of course the month-on-month rate - annualised - would be current, and thus not backward looking, but it is subject to 'random' fluctuations and therefore misleading, and the annualisation would magnify them. Those random monthly fluctualtions tend to offset each other when summed up over the year. We choose the annual rate because it tells us the trend, albeit belatedly. The lag is about 6 months. Is there no better way to get the CURRENT value of the trend in price increases, i.e. inflation?
Well yes there is. But it has to involve some kind of smoothing of the monthly data. There are several ways to do that - e.g. @Barnesian's favourite exponential smoothing for one. But my current favourite is a bit recherché: "empirical mode decomposition". Anyway here is the trend rate of UK CPI inflation (red) along with the year-on-year data we normally talk about (black). You can see that the trend troughs and peaks precede the usual measure until, strangely, the most recent downturn.

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Leon said:

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Says someone who was mask-obsessed throughout.

I'll say this for Dominic Cummings - he knows how to win elections and votes. If it's true that Sunak is talking to him then Labour should be worried.

LostPassword said:

I'll say this for Dominic Cummings - he knows how to win elections and votes. If it's true that Sunak is talking to him then Labour should be worried.

No, they shouldn't

Dominic C is very smart and good at elex but Merlin the Magician in a tag team with Einstein and GPT43 could not win this election for the Tories

Verulamius said:

The Best for Britain campaign group have released a poll undertaken by focaldata. The poll was taken towards the end of November so a bit out of date but as the polls have not shifted much is probably still relevant.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/new_mega_poll_december_2023

The poll had 10,000 respondents so fairly large and they have MRP'd some of the questions.

The most amusing one was Thinking about the next General Election, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister of the UK?

In Richmond and Northallerton when analysing the results, ‘Don’t Know’ was voters’ top response with 32%; Keir Starmer came second with 27%; and Sunak third at just 24%.

So even in Sunak's own consistency they would prefer Starmer as PM.

Happy New Year Rishi!

This map is impressive. It shows from the MRP of who is preferred PM. 390 for Starmer, 238 don't know, 4 for Sunak. Even if every DK goes to Sunak, Labour has a majority of 3 figures. Scotland looks good for Starmer too.

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

1) Election Sept/Oct. NOM, Labour led government.

2) Agree

3) Sadly the war will continue through 2024

4) Trump wins in November, after which the crystal ball clouds over, but we get closer to the early 1930s

5) Agree

OK, my go

1. Election in May. Labour win a decent majority but not quite the landslide the polls imply

2. Agreed. No recession, but we will come dangerously close. Growth will remain "subdued"

3. The Ukraine war will grind to a halt in late spring as both sides realise they have run out men, energy and ideas and no summer offensive is gonna work. There may not even be a formal armistice. Just a kind of sad, frigid truce

4. Trump will win a very close election but will not be the dictator feared by some. He will exult in his victory like the braggart he is, but much else will continue. He won't withdraw from NATO, he WILL bully NATO countries into spending more on defence (and fair enough)

5. China will begin a chokehold on Taiwan, subtle at first: aiming for takeover by 2027


OK now for the blacker swans:


6. A form of LLM will be released (perhaps from an unexpected source) and for many it will cross the line and be true AI; relatedly we will see the first major swathe of jobs falling to AI

7. Migration will become an overwhelming issue in Europe, and more countries will fall to far/hard right governments: the EU elections will show this

8. England will win the euros mainly thanks to Jude Bellingham

TheScreamingEagles said:

Malmesbury said:

A

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

PB will be having a predictions thread in the next few days.

The winner of that contest will be winning a bottle of champagne.

What size? A pint?

The size of Leon's brain.

I am joking, it will be a large bottle, metric or imperial depending on the winner's preference.

An imperial bottle of Pol Roger would be very expensive. And probably undrinkable from age.

Leon said:

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Now is not a stupid time to shield, if you are immunocompromised. Covid is definitely going through one of its waves, and while that's no big deal for those of us with healthy immune systems, and who have been jabbed and infected, it might well be for the old and the sick.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Now is not a stupid time to shield, if you are immunocompromised. Covid is definitely going through one of its waves, and while that's no big deal for those of us with healthy immune systems, and who have been jabbed and infected, it might well be for the old and the sick.

Perhaps

But my point is, this person has been shielding perpetually since lockdown 1. Never stopped

What kind of life is that?

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Malmesbury said:

A

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

PB will be having a predictions thread in the next few days.

The winner of that contest will be winning a bottle of champagne.

What size? A pint?

The size of Leon's brain.

I am joking, it will be a large bottle, metric or imperial depending on the winner's preference.

An imperial bottle of Pol Roger would be very expensive. And probably undrinkable from age.

I've got a bottle of something champagne. It's perfectly imperially dimensioned, 1.652 pints. Problem over. No need for legislation.

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Malmesbury said:

A

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

PB will be having a predictions thread in the next few days.

The winner of that contest will be winning a bottle of champagne.

What size? A pint?

The size of Leon's brain.

I am joking, it will be a large bottle, metric or imperial depending on the winner's preference.

Didn't know they did Champagne in miniatures!

Must be 20cl, which is the (more or less) quarter bottle size.

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Malmesbury said:

A

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Well, its Hogmanay and with the New Year almost upon us here are my predictions for 2024.

1. There will be an election in November. The Tories and the SNP will lose. Labour will have a modest majority, greatly helped by 20+ seats in Scotland, all taken from the SNP. The loss of seats may well be the end of the road for Yousaf. By the end of the year Rishi will have stood down as an MP and be looking to go back to California.

2. The economy will do better than current forecasts, growing modestly. There will not be a technical recession but we may come close in the first half of the year.

3. By the Summer both Russia and Ukraine will be exhausted and some form of messy compromise satisfying no one will be found.

4. Biden will win the US election, more easily than he did in 2020. The Democrats will also gain the House but may struggle in the Senate. Biden will not complete his second term.

5. China will have another difficult year with huge debt overhangs in property undermining the tax base of several provinces finances. Growth will slow even further and Xi will compensate by making more bellicose noises over Taiwan but not act.

So, you all now know where not to put your bets. Good luck all!

PB will be having a predictions thread in the next few days.

The winner of that contest will be winning a bottle of champagne.

What size? A pint?

The size of Leon's brain.

I am joking, it will be a large bottle, metric or imperial depending on the winner's preference.

An imperial bottle of Pol Roger would be very expensive. And probably undrinkable from age.

I've got a bottle of something champagne. It's perfectly imperially dimensioned, 1.652 pints. Problem over. No need for legislation.

We're going to have a bottle of champers over dinner, and then I'm 'doing' Dry January++. No alcohol, no crisps, no chocolate, no biccies.

I last did a dry month in November, and for the first time I hated it. As an agnostic, I take it to be my form of wearing a hair shirt...

geoffw said:

Snipping from @IanB2's post, quoting Rawnsley:

IanB2 said:

. . . I forecast an autumn contest for two main reasons. There’s a better chance that the Bank of England will have started to cut interest rates by then. For many voters, reductions in inflation and borrowing costs will make a bigger difference to their quality of life than any tax cuts. My second reason… is the psychology of beleaguered incumbents who fear the verdict of the electorate. Leaders who aren’t confident of winning almost invariably delay the moment of reckoning in the hope that something will turn up to save them.. . .

The salience of falling inflation in this decision leads me to ponder why we use the inflation measure we do - namely the rise in the price level over the last 12 months. That is telling us what the average inflation has been over the past year, not what it is right NOW. Is there no better measure available?

For the question at hand -- voter sentiment on the economy -- I feel like it's more likely to be driven by one (or a mix) of:

* net disposable income
* the difference between wage inflation and price inflation (which is similar to the above but ignores interest rate effects on housing costs)
* whether voters look at prices in supermarkets etc and think "blimey, I remember when it used to be under a quid for that"

For all of those, inflation-right-now is an input but only one input. For the third item, inflation over 12 or 24 months might actually be a better guide to voter sentiment.

January - In shock 9-0 decision, SC bars Trump from all future elections.

spudgfsh said:

would an election on the same day as the London mayoral election help or hinder Sunaks ability to retain seats in London?

In London, where people who only turn out for GEs (and referendums) are likely to be Remainers, the answer is hinder.

Leon said:

Hmm


"An Joint-Statement is reportedly expected to be made in the coming hours by the United States, Britain, and an Unknown European Country, announcing that they are in Final Preparations for a Large-Scale Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen which will include the launch of Hundreds of Missiles and Airstrikes against Pre-Planned Targets in Western Yemen and the Red Sea."

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1741490989313704183?s=20

Brace?

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Hmm


"An Joint-Statement is reportedly expected to be made in the coming hours by the United States, Britain, and an Unknown European Country, announcing that they are in Final Preparations for a Large-Scale Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen which will include the launch of Hundreds of Missiles and Airstrikes against Pre-Planned Targets in Western Yemen and the Red Sea."

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1741490989313704183?s=20

Brace?

No, not quite an Official

BRACE

This TwiX account is known for hyperbole and melodrama, and you know how allergic I am to such things

Mind you, the Houthis should be taken out. They threaten a global recession. Zap them

If there are two elections at similar times it's probably good for Labour and bad for the Tories. Firstly, it will squeeze some of the attention away from the campaign - which doesn't favour the party behind in the polls. Whatever Sunak and Starmer have said could in theory be third item on the news if there's a big conventional news story and Trump has said or done something mad.

Secondly, Trump is so unpopular in the UK that you can expect Labour to highlight the pro-Trumpers in the most crackers parts of the Tory party, and it's a lot easier for Labour to distance itself from Trump's wilder statements if asked to comment, for both diplomatic and party management reasons.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Now is not a stupid time to shield, if you are immunocompromised. Covid is definitely going through one of its waves, and while that's no big deal for those of us with healthy immune systems, and who have been jabbed and infected, it might well be for the old and the sick.

Perhaps

But my point is, this person has been shielding perpetually since lockdown 1. Never stopped

What kind of life is that?

People stop doing fun things for all kinds of reasons.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

spudgfsh said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am looking forward to 2024.

I am not. It seems to be arriving though...

take it as it comes, if it's too much ask for help.

this is truly the first year I've been looking forward to since before the pandemic. following the pandemic everything got too much for me and I fell apart mentally in 2022. I've spent this year making changes and putting myself back together again. I'm looking forward to moving on next year. Hopefully I can leave the past alone from here on out.

Good luck, bro!

A lot of us were scarred by Covid. I only really moved on late last year, the autumn of 2022

Many are still there. The other day, down in Cornwall for Chrimbo, I messaged a very old friend in Padstow that I haven't seen since pre-pandemic, I suggested a drink and a long overdue catch up

He answered "Sure, briliant, I know a good pub, but it will have to be outside, we are still shielding"

WTAFFFF

I did some research and found out this is true. This person has been "shielding" since 2020 and has not stopped. No one has been inside their house. We are on the cusp of 2024. Will it be like this for the rest of his life?

How many others are like that?

I never saw my friend. It rained like fuck and I am not gonna stand outside a pub in the rain talking to someone in a frigging mask

Now is not a stupid time to shield, if you are immunocompromised. Covid is definitely going through one of its waves, and while that's no big deal for those of us with healthy immune systems, and who have been jabbed and infected, it might well be for the old and the sick.

Perhaps

But my point is, this person has been shielding perpetually since lockdown 1. Never stopped

What kind of life is that?

People stop doing fun things for all kinds of reasons.

An outstanding insight. I shall now leave the site and do my packing. So, thanks

TheScreamingEagles said:

There have now been many weeks of continued press coverage involving the PPE Medpro story.

My husband Doug will issue a statement tomorrow morning at 9am to set the record straight.

https://twitter.com/MichelleMone/status/1741454220274946371

That'll be Doug Barrowloadsofmoney spouting untruths, I reckon.

FrankBooth said:

Given TSE's well known interest in pornography, am I to assume there was an intentional play on words with the heading?

I think you forget my love of innuendos and puns.

My nickname at university was Finbarr after Finbarr Saunders.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There have now been many weeks of continued press coverage involving the PPE Medpro story.

My husband Doug will issue a statement tomorrow morning at 9am to set the record straight.

https://twitter.com/MichelleMone/status/1741454220274946371

A public confession, then ?

Well she compared herself to Pablo Escobar last week so this statement could go anywhere.

Whoever is running her PR is really shit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michelle-mone-covid-ppe-scandal-escobar-b2469292.html

rcs1000 said:

I am doing a semi-dry January. I shall not drink for the first 11 days. But then I'm going skiing with friends, and that will definitely not be dry.

I am partaking in dry January.

algarkirk said:

MJW said:

If there are two elections at similar times it's probably good for Labour and bad for the Tories. Firstly, it will squeeze some of the attention away from the campaign - which doesn't favour the party behind in the polls. Whatever Sunak and Starmer have said could in theory be third item on the news if there's a big conventional news story and Trump has said or done something mad.

Secondly, Trump is so unpopular in the UK that you can expect Labour to highlight the pro-Trumpers in the most crackers parts of the Tory party, and it's a lot easier for Labour to distance itself from Trump's wilder statements if asked to comment, for both diplomatic and party management reasons.

IMHO this supports my thought that September is a possible window, which may also catch a summer upbeat mood from Euros and Olympics, while being a bit away from Trump's victory in November.

History rather suggests that taking a potential England victory in the Euros into account in determining the election date would be unwise.
Go for it, Rishi.