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How the papers are covering Sunak’s dangerous Monday – politicalbetting.com

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

    The clamour for the Tories to roll out the red carpet for Farage will surely soon become irresistible. It's an almighty itch that just won't go away. I doubt it will ultimately do then any good, but they need to get it out of their system. It's kill or cure.
    It’s one of those things that must have some small chance of happening, but in my head I can’t even begin to consider it possible
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638

    Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever

    ITV Wales/YouGov

    Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.

    But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.

    The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.

    Westminster voting intention: December 2023

    Conservative: 20% (+1)
    Labour: 42% (-8)
    Liberal Democrat: 7% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru: 15% (+3)
    Reform UK: 12% (+4)
    Green: 3% (-2)
    Other: 1% (-1)

    The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.

    Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.

    We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?

    31%
    Doing well

    56%
    Doing badly

    13%
    Don't know
    Lab polling 42% having gained a seat in Senedd 2 years ago. It's a strong position to be standing down from.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278

    I am out of the country and had to rely on the Guardian synopsis. But it does look like Rishi is getting cross with Starmer for the mess the country is in.
    He's preparing well for being LOTO.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278
    isam said:

    NEW polling of 2,000 UK adults in @TheSun

    Amongst Conservative 2019 voters: Do you have a positive or negative view of...

    Nigel Farage: Positive 46%, Negative 28%, Net rating +18

    Rishi Sunak: Positive 35%, Negative 39%, Net rating -3


    https://x.com/jlpartnerspolls/status/1734701922995601785?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Change in Farage's ratings with Conservative 2019 voters before and after I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!:

    November 17th: Positive 37%, Negative 36%, Net rating +1

    December 10th: Positive 46%, Negative 28%, Net rating +18


    https://x.com/jlpartnerspolls/status/1734702641253384648?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Change in Farage's ratings with All Voters before and after I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!:

    November 17th: Positive 20%, Negative 54%, Net rating -34

    December 10th: Positive 22%, Negative 51%, Net rating -29

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1734703471905939599?t=l8LYQOuEMrCQohiDU4wpxg&s=19

    So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    rkrkrk said:

    Lab polling 42% having gained a seat in Senedd 2 years ago. It's a strong position to be standing down from.
    Getting the replacement right will be important for the GE I think. Ideally someone who can represent some sort of fresh break from Drakeford and able to distance themselves from some of the less popular bits of his reign, without undermining the Labour track record by overly dissing him.
  • isam said:

    It’s one of those things that must have some small chance of happening, but in my head I can’t even begin to consider it possible
    I think Farage could be persuaded. Deep down he must dislike his reputation as a political gadfly who's never run anything. He'll want to prove that he can do things better than the people he's always criticizing. Would the Tories have him? A number of Rishi's likely successors would be very amenable I'd have thought.
  • As the relative sizes of the groupings in the Tory party showed this week, I don't see Farage getting anywhere near the leadership. The far-right (an awful term really, the ERG are NOT Nazis, despite what some social media warriors claim) are not that numerous, and many will likely be lost at the election.
    He just needs to get second-place among the MPS, of which there are going to be a lot fewer than at present.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,468
    Any reason why Lineker shouldn't call Shapps '4 chaps Shapps'?


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    Does he [Sunak] think people are stupid?

    Yes
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Flanner said:

    There's no umbrella 20 mph limit in either Oxford City or Oxfordshire. In both the policy is that residents or town/parish councils may lobby to reduce an existing 30 mph limit, and the County reviews the pitch for local support and practicality.
    It is an absurd claim this is his legacy. my estate has been 20 MPH for 15 years. Other estates by me are. There are plenty of 20 MPH limits around in England and in Scotland. There is not even an umbrella 20MPH limit in Wales.

    Perhaps the hapless Drakeford followed the lead of Scotland or Durham or other parts of the country and has run to the front to shout "follow me".
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Drakeford's legacy. Handling of Covid in a more inept manner than the British govt.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    HYUFD said:

    May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
    While not disagreeing with your analysis and if he is still a long way behind in the polls he may well leave it until October as most people think i.e. to maximise his chance of turning things around and/or maximising his time in office.

    However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.

    The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,147
    A Xmas zinger by
    @RhonddaBryant
    .

    "What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    kjh said:

    While not disagreeing with your analysis and if he is still a long way behind in the polls he may well leave it until October as most people think i.e. to maximise his chance of turning things around and/or maximising his time in office.

    However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.

    The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
    As I said earlier there is a lot of forthcoming bad news (local Government’s general bankruptcy due to social care costs, the collapse of school budgets, the collapse of universities to name 3 which will be very obvious from June onwards next year.

    So I can see why Rishi may wish to delay to October but I suspect it would be wiser to go early.

    Come October it’s very possible that Rishi will be fighting to keep 100 seats.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Scott_xP said:

    A Xmas zinger by
    @RhonddaBryant
    .

    "What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"

    Too wordy. Yvette Cooper's yesterday was better.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    Foxy said:

    Change in Farage's ratings with All Voters before and after I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!:

    November 17th: Positive 20%, Negative 54%, Net rating -34

    December 10th: Positive 22%, Negative 51%, Net rating -29

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1734703471905939599?t=l8LYQOuEMrCQohiDU4wpxg&s=19

    So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.

    2019 Tories are the material of a landslide - most of the rest of them voted for Corbyn or Bollocks to Brexit, so Farage is unlikely to be their cup of tea
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.

    King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.

    So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.

    Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.

    Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.

    Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158
    Scott_xP said:

    A Xmas zinger by
    @RhonddaBryant
    .

    "What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"

    Is that “Xmas formerly known as Twittermas”?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.

    This has happened on the last 3 journeys.

    There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.

    I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.

    Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -






  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    MikeL said:

    Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.

    King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.

    So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.

    Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.

    Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.

    Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.

    What about the councellors of state? They’d be authorised to dissolve parliament, as was done once when Elizabeth II was away.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    eek said:

    As I said earlier there is a lot of forthcoming bad news (local Government’s general bankruptcy due to social care costs, the collapse of school budgets, the collapse of universities to name 3 which will be very obvious from June onwards next year.

    So I can see why Rishi may wish to delay to October but I suspect it would be wiser to go early.

    Come October it’s very possible that Rishi will be fighting to keep 100 seats.
    People need to factor in the probability - given that he's such a genius - that Rishi will be snapped up by a multinational as soon as he's out of office, and may be able to earn as much as half a billion a year.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    MikeL said:

    Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.

    King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.

    So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.

    Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.

    Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.

    Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.

    If Sunak thought he could actually win an election he would be willing to go to Alpha Centauri.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited December 2023
    RobD said:

    What about the councellors of state? They’d be authorised to dissolve parliament, as was done once when Elizabeth II was away.
    They might dissolve Parliament but surely in practice Charles would appoint the new PM. It must be just about the most important thing a Monarch does.

    The Queen even appointed Truss two days before she died.

    They surely have to have the photo of new PM shaking hands with Charles.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278
    MikeL said:

    Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.

    King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.

    So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.

    Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.

    Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.

    Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.

    I still reckon May.

    Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Cyclefree said:

    Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.

    This has happened on the last 3 journeys.

    There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.

    I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.

    Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -






    I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently.
    Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).

    It will be the last time in a while.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Foxy said:

    I still reckon May.

    Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
    I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278
    Nigelb said:

    I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently.
    Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).

    It will be the last time in a while.
    My lifelong Conservative party member mother took her Christmas parcels to the post office in Romsey the other day, only to have to return home with them. The post Office was closed on Saturday morning 2 weeks before Christmas as "no staff available".

    Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
  • Foxy said:

    I still reckon May.

    Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
    How do you balance
    1. Likely bad defeat in May
    2. Things might get better if something turns up
    3. Things will probably get worse?

    Not easy.

    Oh, and well done for the bank puns, everyone. The co-operative efforts made me smile.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    Foxy said:

    My lifelong Conservative party member mother took her Christmas parcels to the post office in Romsey the other day, only to have to return home with them. The post Office was closed on Saturday morning 2 weeks before Christmas as "no staff available".

    Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
    Fear not, soon she will be able to vote for change candidate Rishi Sunak who will undo the last decade of Labour decline.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    TimS said:

    Fear not, soon she will be able to vote for change candidate Rishi Sunak who will undo the last decade of Labour decline.
    He's already undone quite a bit of the last decade of Labour decline.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314
    Taz said:

    I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
    During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.

    Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    viewcode said:

    During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
    It’s been like this since 2016 so of course we can keep going on this.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    How do you balance
    1. Likely bad defeat in May
    2. Things might get better if something turns up
    3. Things will probably get worse?

    Not easy.

    Oh, and well done for the bank puns, everyone. The co-operative efforts made me smile.
    There is one hope for them, I think. It seems to be getting picked up in the polling with growing support for minor parties. And that’s the “plague on all their houses” attitude.

    Populist governments through history have successfully managed to get the public to believe that all politicians are mendacious, corrupt, incompetent. So you might as well stick with the devil you know. The Tories seem to be having a measure of success in doing that, aided and abetted somewhat by Labour not really being on the front foot. The current turmoil in the SNP probably helps with this impression too.

    If Rishi can engineer a “they’re all as bad as each other” election then he may not win, but he could trim Labour’s margin of victory. I’d say this was a significant factor in 2010 after the expenses scandal, manifesting in the Cleggasm.
  • Taz said:

    I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
    It's going to be May. Let's get it over with!

    CON can look forward to sitting with their friends LD and SNP on the opposition benches for a while and hopefully regroup and find their way again, returning to proper CON principles.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,468
    Foxy said:

    Change in Farage's ratings with All Voters before and after I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!:

    November 17th: Positive 20%, Negative 54%, Net rating -34

    December 10th: Positive 22%, Negative 51%, Net rating -29

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1734703471905939599?t=l8LYQOuEMrCQohiDU4wpxg&s=19

    So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.

    Any polling details from them? I know you're not supposed to criticise pollsters on here but after seeing the details of their focus groups I'd make a exception for JL Partners
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    viewcode said:

    During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
    Sunak surely planning to use Party Conference as launch pad for election. Thus October/November for polling day.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.

    Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?

    Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.

    We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
  • It's going to be May. Let's get it over with!

    CON can look forward to sitting with their friends LD and SNP on the opposition benches for a while and hopefully regroup and find their way again, returning to proper CON principles.
    Regardless of policy, I hope that principles can be amongst the principles they return to. Never before have we had mendacious lying shithousery on the level we have had since 2019.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Elon Musk's Tesla 'recalls'
    two million cars over Autopilot defect
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    Roger said:

    Any polling details from them? I know you're not supposed to criticise pollsters on here but after seeing the details of their focus groups I'd make a exception for JL Partners
    Whenever I see something from them I can’t help thinking it’s a poll from John Lewis and partners. Never knowingly underpolled.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Presume Mr Drakeford has been discussed this morning. Luke will have his Zionist LFI replacement ready to go.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,844

    Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.

    Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?

    Rolls for 20p.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited December 2023
    TimS said:

    Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.

    We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
    That sounds dystopianly French.
    I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    This afternoon's witness at the Post Office Inquiry has just started giving evidence.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeIPHK-NtEM
  • TimS said:

    Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.

    We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
    This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    That sounds dystopianly French.
    I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
    Yes. It’s Parisification. Was predicted when the benefits cap was introduced, and sure enough it’s happening. Social cleansing.

    The one thing that saves us from full on Parisification is that prices are so high, the middle class are also leaving. So those flight areas, even the likes of Thamesmead, are gentrifying rather than becoming banlieue
  • Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.

    Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?

    Same thing happening in Camden.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MikeL said:

    They might dissolve Parliament but surely in practice Charles would appoint the new PM. It must be just about the most important thing a Monarch does.

    The Queen even appointed Truss two days before she died.

    They surely have to have the photo of new PM shaking hands with Charles.
    Zoom and CGI will sort it. The RF is practically a CGI soap opera anyway - just look at the DM any day.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.

    But I find it disquieting.

    Who and what are our cities for?
  • Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk's Tesla 'recalls'
    two million cars over Autopilot defect
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935

    No worries just needs a quick rebrand from Tesla to Z and sack half the engineers.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    Nigelb said:

    I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently.
    Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).

    It will be the last time in a while.
    TPE should be cancelling fewer trains in future. This is because since the timetable change on Sunday they are planning to run fewer trains in the first place.

    But, to be fair, you can't blame them for a broken rail.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
    Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.

    Really interesting story, and kind of admirable.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    I will say, though, the train journey along the coast north from Lancaster is very beautiful.

    And the weather looks gorgeous so I cannot wait to get home and breathe fresh air.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    In other news, Mr Stewart is to move back to the UK:

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/dec/13/atlantic-crossing-rod-stewart-to-sell-up-la-mansion-and-move-back-to-uk

    Model railway *not* part of the fixtures and fittings, though.

    'The home features a full-size football pitch and, until recently, housed Stewart’s cherished epic train set, entitled Grand Street and Three Rivers City and modelled on US railroads. “It took me 23 years to build,” he said in 2021. “It’s 60ft long by 25ft wide. Bigger than most people’s houses. It’s taken seven months to move [to the UK].”'
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.

    But I find it disquieting.

    Who and what are our cities for?

    Branches of Pret selling lunch to office workers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485

    I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.

    But I find it disquieting.

    Who and what are our cities for?

    Schools are closing and merging everywhere. The (largely) migrant inspired spike in the birth rate after 2004 which ended years of decline has gone through the system and the decline in births since the pandemic now means we have too much capacity for the numbers of children.

    School sites are often well suited to residential redevelopment and obviously we can't just mothball land and buildinbgs in case the birth rate picks up again one day...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

    Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.

    Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?

    Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited December 2023
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/13/labour-councillor-altany-craik-quits-selection-race-after-concerns-over-sexy-satanic-novels

    'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'

    Bit shite for the poor chap.

    Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    isam said:

    Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
    Hackney’s gentrification

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/london-question-hackney-area-new-clapham-b1099085.html
  • Government minister pledges to deal with all asylum applications that it is "capable" of dealing with.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/13/labour-councillor-altany-craik-quits-selection-race-after-concerns-over-sexy-satanic-novels

    'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'

    Bit shite for the poor chap.

    Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.

    Wouldn't be the first politician to write fiction which some disapproved of.
    Altany Craik sounds very much like the made-up pen name of a writer of sexy and satanic stories.
  • I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.

    But I find it disquieting.

    Who and what are our cities for?

    Right now, a combination of the rich (who can afford current prices) and old (who bought when it was cheaper). It's pretty much the same in my Zone 6 suburb. And that doesn't make for a good society.

    Wonder what the ratio of internal migration to reduced birth rate is in driving these closures? UK wide, we're over ten percent down on the number of births in 2010ish. That feels like a pretty morbid sign. Some of it is the benefit cap doing what it was always going to do (including scaring people off having children, just in case), but also who can afford to have lots of kids?

    If the UK was preparing to wind itself down, with the last person turning out the lights in 2070 or so, how would it look different to what we're currently seeing?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    isam said:

    Hackney’s gentrification

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/london-question-hackney-area-new-clapham-b1099085.html
    What's the most similar place now to what Hackney used to be like?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    stodge said:

    Schools are closing and merging everywhere. The (largely) migrant inspired spike in the birth rate after 2004 which ended years of decline has gone through the system and the decline in births since the pandemic now means we have too much capacity for the numbers of children.

    School sites are often well suited to residential redevelopment and obviously we can't just mothball land and buildinbgs in case the birth rate picks up again one day...
    I'm sure Stodge meant this, but note that this is very much a London issue. Schools in Trafford are absolutely packed to the ginnels and there is no element of choice whatsoever: you get what you're given.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited December 2023
    isam said:

    Hackney’s gentrification

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/london-question-hackney-area-new-clapham-b1099085.html
    Nice little article.

    I moved to Hackney (Shoreditch, to begin with) in 2000 and, by and large, lived in or v close until 2021 when I moved to New York.

    Sad if it is to go the way of Clapham: a fate worse than death.

    Good to hear the property market remains “bouyant”, though, even if from a selfish perspective.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    nico679 said:

    Poor economic data just released . At this rate the BOE will be cutting interest rates sooner rather than later .

    I think that the Bank is more obsessed with inflation than the government. They will resist a cut until inflation is a lot nearer target, probably end of Q2 next year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    It was all inevitable once Alphonso Mango moved in.
    Is that the fence sidekick of Arsène Lupin ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/13/labour-councillor-altany-craik-quits-selection-race-after-concerns-over-sexy-satanic-novels

    'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'

    Bit shite for the poor chap.

    Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.

    Cancel culture.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    That sounds dystopianly French.
    I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
    The benefit cap seems fair enough to me. Why should the rest of the country pay taxes to prop up London rents? Doesn't seem a massively sensible use of public funds.

    Without this propping up, there is a natural upper limit to the extent to which one city can be massively richer and more expensive than the rest of it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,679
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the most similar place now to what Hackney used to be like?
    That article reads as if the journo is mainlining porridge in a niche hipster-cafe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,679

    Same thing happening in Camden.

    Is there a shift to Independent Schools?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    Wouldn't be the first politician to write fiction which some disapproved of.
    Altany Craik sounds very much like the made-up pen name of a writer of sexy and satanic stories.
    Mr Disraeli!!

    Craik is a perfectly normal Scots name - a variant of Craig (cf. southern Rock). Altany is also a Scots name though not nearly so common.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.

    Really interesting story, and kind of admirable.
    Just went to find that and saw the thread on luck.

    Yes, so much is down to luck. To take two examples from my life:
    • I met my wife only because my PhD had overrun and I was so snowed under that I was late filing the extension request, which - if submitted on time - would have resulted in me being kicked out of my office to one of the grim over-end-of-PhD hotdesking offices. As I was late to submit, they'd already sorted office space and I was left where I was. Then my (now) wife arrived to start her PhD in the same office.
    • I'm in my current line of work only because, having just submitted my PhD thesis and desperately needing money, a friend of mine mentioned that his dad, who worked for the NHS and collaborated with a local uni, needed someone to switch an old FoxPro research data handling system to R and SQL. I knew R and bluffed SQL and got the zero-hours post, which turned after 3-4 months into an offer of a post-doc and so I started my switch from x-ray physics to epidemiology.
    Without those two pieces of luck, I'd be somewhere else, with someone else (or alone!), doing something completely different.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    MattW said:

    That article reads as if the journo is mainlining porridge in a niche hipster-cafe.
    Cookie said:

    The benefit cap seems fair enough to me. Why should the rest of the country pay taxes to prop up London rents? Doesn't seem a massively sensible use of public funds.

    Without this propping up, there is a natural upper limit to the extent to which one city can be massively richer and more expensive than the rest of it.
    I broadly agree with this, but recall too that nowhere is building enough housing to meet demand.

    I think London is already beyond the point where it is able to provide a sustainable housing offer for current and future growth earners.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.

    Really interesting story, and kind of admirable.
    I had missed that - and yes, it is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,837
    Tax Return Day

    O Joy. O Joy Unbounded
  • Right now, a combination of the rich (who can afford current prices) and old (who bought when it was cheaper). It's pretty much the same in my Zone 6 suburb. And that doesn't make for a good society.

    Wonder what the ratio of internal migration to reduced birth rate is in driving these closures? UK wide, we're over ten percent down on the number of births in 2010ish. That feels like a pretty morbid sign. Some of it is the benefit cap doing what it was always going to do (including scaring people off having children, just in case), but also who can afford to have lots of kids?

    If the UK was preparing to wind itself down, with the last person turning out the lights in 2070 or so, how would it look different to what we're currently seeing?
    Taking it literally we would be exporting our old people rather than importing younger people to look after them.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    A
    MattW said:

    Is there a shift to Independent Schools?
    The cost of housing.

    If you have a couple of children, you need more than a one bed flat.

    Many people are struggling to afford a one bed flat on 2 salaries.

    So when the Good News sonogram picture gets printed, people move out to the sticks.

    In London, they are building tons of 1 and 2 bed flats as high as they can. Far fewer 3 bed properties.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,578
    Andy_JS said:

    This afternoon's witness at the Post Office Inquiry has just started giving evidence.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeIPHK-NtEM

    In spite of being a) retired and b) partially disabled I do not have time to watch it, how did this morning’s witness do. Another forgettist?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the most similar place now to what Hackney used to be like?
    I don’t know.

    Forest Gate?
    Margate?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,729
    Taz said:

    I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
    Yes, I think Theresa would be better than Rishi too.
  • for all you MusXmelons out there . . .

    AP (via Seattle Times) - Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot

    Tesla is recalling nearly all vehicles sold in the U.S., more than 2 million, to update software and fix a defective system that’s supposed to ensure drivers are paying attention when using Autopilot.

    Documents posted Wednesday by U.S. safety regulators say the update will increase warnings and alerts to drivers and even limit the areas where basic versions of Autopilot can operate.

    The recall comes after a two-year investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration into a series of crashes that happened while the Autopilot partially automated driving system was in use. Some were deadly.

    The agency says its investigation found Autopilot’s method of making sure that drivers are paying attention can be inadequate and can lead to “foreseeable misuse of the system.”

    The added controls and alerts will “further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous driving responsibility,” the documents said.

    But safety experts said while the recall is a good step, it still makes the driver responsible and doesn’t fix the underlying problem that Tesla’s automated systems have trouble spotting and stopping for obstacles in their path. . . .

    In its defect report filed with the safety agency, Tesla said Autopilot’s controls “may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse.” . . .

    SSI - Getta load of the "driver misuse" excuse. MusXmelons please explain?
  • Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk's Tesla 'recalls'
    two million cars over Autopilot defect
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935

    "Recall". They are doing an over the air software update. Much better than your usual recall where they say "whoops that part will crash your car or set in on fire, we've been forced to change it, please wait x months until we give you a time slot to come to the dealership and wait for us to fix it"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Nigelb said:

    I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently.
    Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).

    It will be the last time in a while.
    Travelling by train in the north of England should of course be avoided by anyone wanting to get to work or make a serious journey. It's OK for older people with time on their hands and can choose their times and have no deadlines. A bit ago I travelled to York from Carlisle, and back a couple of days later. I was able to allow all day for this short journey, both directions, which was good as each way took 6 hours. (Under 2 1/2 hours by car). So if you can look on it as more or less equivalent to an adventure crossing the Gobi desert on wild Bactrian camels it's fine, but take a good book.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    algarkirk said:

    Travelling by train in the north of England should of course be avoided by anyone wanting to get to work or make a serious journey. It's OK for older people with time on their hands and can choose their times and have no deadlines. A bit ago I travelled to York from Carlisle, and back a couple of days later. I was able to allow all day for this short journey, both directions, which was good as each way took 6 hours. (Under 2 1/2 hours by car). So if you can look on it as more or less equivalent to an adventure crossing the Gobi desert on wild Bactrian camels it's fine, but take a good book.
    That last line made me laugh out loud, which is not something many people do in the waiting room at Barra .......

    Thank you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,398

    "Recall". They are doing an over the air software update. Much better than your usual recall where they say "whoops that part will crash your car or set in on fire, we've been forced to change it, please wait x months until we give you a time slot to come to the dealership and wait for us to fix it"
    The problem is the real 'recall' might be to actually bring all the cars in and fit them with LIDAR and other sensors/processing systems. Tesla are gambling a great deal on the idea that their existing hardware will be able to fulfil the technical debt they've taken on.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Stroppy little shit isn't he, Rishi?

    Sorry but I'm not seeing this stroppiness at all. If anything he seems bizarrely tiggerish (in public) in spite of everything. Could he be deemed a little tone deaf? Yes but the reality is that day after day he is being asked to make decisions that affect thousands or indeed millions of people. Individual anecdotes are no basis for doing that even if more experienced politicians are better versed in responding to them. Still it sees as though there is a certain Rishi derangement syndrome. I find it hard to understand how people who weren't irked by Cameron nonetheless get really irate with Sunak. Perhaps it's his size, I say this as someone who was the smallest kid in the class, though I assumed people grew out of that one. The billionaire wife? I mean why would she choose someone like him? Pure luck I presume on his part. Same reason he was Head Boy at Winchester, got a first at Oxford and a Fullbright scholarship. Pure luck.

    I would hate to say it's to do with the colour of his skin but I have to wonder. Is a non-white person choosing the Tories an act of betrayal?
This discussion has been closed.