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Sweet Swingback’s Baadasssss Song – politicalbetting.com
Sweet Swingback’s Baadasssss Song – politicalbetting.com
Image: Opinium’s methodology change from February 2022
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Enjoy!
It is the voters with the patchy voting record wot win it for the party who can get them sufficiently motivated.
Despite the cold, I spotted a Postie earlier, still out and about in shorts.
What Opinium and Kantar are doing is to correct for those who are consistent at turning out, but undecided who to vote for. These tend to be 2019 Tory voters in the main.
This is the link to the updated Opinium methodology, the source of the figure and Quote in the header.
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-27th-january-2022-2/
Components 1 and 2 are quite unpredictable, and can mean swing-away like in 2017 during the final weeks of a campaign.
In my mind swingback is a gradual phenomenon in the 6 months or so before the formal campaign starts.
Though personally I wouldn't call two or three men in shorts "very crowded".
Maybe it's the gin?
So there’s very little point in the Nats continuing to hide it
Kate Forbes might be happy
@Erudite4Unity
Scottish press: "Is that @theSNP? Social media is full of stories that 2 senior SNP politicians had an extra-marital affair during lockdown. I wondered if you had any comment?"
SNP: "There is no truth in this rumour. The First Minister is happily married and so is his mistress."
Curtains for his career if proved, however
First version of swingback is when a leader like Thatcher or Blair is utterly in control of the agenda and narrative. Do the unpopular stuff in years 1 and 2, accepting the consequences. Then hope that it has paid off, or that you have goodies to spray around in years 3 and 4. The '83 - '87 parliament is probably the best example of this, though '01 - '05 comes close. That option is closed off to the Conservatives this time. Partly because Boris would have spent like a sailor anyway, but mostly because Covid yanked the Scrooge-Santa cycle out of whack. (The winner in 2024/5 will dearly hope to be back to business as usual by 2028/9).
The other version is the "moan but vote" phenomenon. You may not be happy with X, and will moan in low-stakes situations like council elections, byelections and opinion polls, but when push comes to shove, you'll still back them against Y. That was a big factor in '92, probably a smaller one in '97, but polls are better at correcting for that now... aren't they? Opinium are just being a bit more ballsy in how big that factor is.
The other big unkown is what the voters who came out for the first time in 2016 for Brexit, the second time in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, will do. By all accounts, there are quite a lot of them, and they're not happy in general and doubly not happy with Rishi.
Especially if the miscreants are odious creeps
Or so he'd have us believe. He's probably just an incel who hasn't left his woodlouse-infected basement flat in Southend for five years...
To a certain extent Blair to Brown must have been factored in by 2005 Lab voters. I don’t think new leaders mid term have a very good record in the subsequent GE, Boris aside. Major won I suppose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Pail_of_Air
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Snow_(novel)
Floating voters, switching between Labour and Conservative, are rare beasts.
Incidentally, for true cold, I'm currently reading Neville Shute's 'An Old Captivity', where a pilot flies an archaeological expedition to Greenland in the early 1930s. A fascinating book that captures the time when pilots had to do things like strip their own engines; a world that probably only existed for a couple of decades.
It's also interesting as it fits a 'love/female interest' in a very male environment, in a way that does not grate. Few films managed that. One that did was 'Ice Cold in Alex'.
There are people either not paying much attention to politics, or paying attention mostly to what the government is doing, who are answering pollsters simply on the basis of whether they like the government, offering a vote for the opposition (or a don’t know) if they don’t. The arrival of the election forces them to evaluate all the parties on a parallel basis, and some find they don’t like the opposition offering(s) any the more. You could see the Big_G saga as one of these; someone who spent eighteen months sharing his negative view of Johnson and saying he wouldn’t vote for him; then, when the election came and faced with Corbyn, voting for Johnson after all.
There are those who use their response to the pollster as a form of protest, rather akin to a by-election vote, never really intending to actually vote against their usual party when the election comes.
There are those usually government supporters who are so disaffected that they imagine they don’t intend to vote, but then either get caught up in the campaign or feel a social responsibility to vote, and do so in their usual fashion.
Then there’s the tendency of governments to do the bad stuff early and in the middle of their terms, then trying to Segway to better deeds in the final year. For those with short-term perspectives or horizons, this generates some natural swingback.
Then there are those influenced by specific factors that only become apparent during the campaign, such as the identity of the candidates, the vigour of the campaigns, and local tactical considerations, and these override their having previously given a default protest response to pollsters of intending to vote ‘for the other lot’. Similarly, but often conversely, in a close local context, the third and other minor party vote can get squeezed. Depending on local circumstances, these pressures can push people back to backing the governing party, or moving from the main opposition party to a third party, both of which can contribute to a swingback.
No problem with the adultery of course, but the alleged breach of Covid rules is a problem.
Mid term changes of PM are variable in outcome, but generally occur because the previous PM was failing badly, so dealt a difficult hand to play. Callaghan for Wilson was health reasons so a bit different, but nonetheless didn't work.
Blair to Brown wasn't an electoral success.
Thatcher to Major saved the Tories in 1992
MacMillan to Douglas-Home didn't work, but Eden to Macmillan did.
It's a bit double or quits for a party in trouble so far as I can see.
Apologies if this duplicates previous comments (I haven't read the whole discussion). One point to bear in mind is that voters *always* overestimate their likelihood to vote. Even in the Scottish independence referendum, which IIRC had the highest turnout of any public poll in decades, it would still have been even higher (over 90%), if voters had done as opinion polls said they would.
- December Netflix release? I don't think it's Ethan Hawke or Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Fassbinder
- Marvel superhero with jaw implant? The only male sleb of any note with a jaw implant I know is Zac Efron and he's not Marvel
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/features/plastic-surgery-celebrities-actors-b2456972.html"Going forward, we will be actively sampling to increase the proportions of those who classify as low or mid political attention and weighting our political sample to be representative based on political attention, using targets from the British Election Study."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/02/philippines-hit-by-earthquake-tsunami-say-experts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toto_Koopman
Model, starlet, spy. Allegedly she had relationships with the sons of both Churchill and Mussolini.
There was an anecdote that went something like this: Germans came to arrest her in the hotel she was staying at in Venice. She turned up to greet the Germans who came to the hotel, and was introduced as someone else. They did nor find her. sadly she was betrayed a few days later, and was sent to Ravensbruck, which she survived.
Let’s hope 2022 is the start of a trend:
"Average life expectancy in the U.S. increased by more than a year in 2022, but it still has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, according to newly released Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
U.S. life expectancy was 77.5 years, researchers found, up 1.1 years from 2021. The increase did not overcome a loss of 2.4 years in life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, which has largely been attributed to excess deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic.
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/americans-are-living-longer-but-there-s-a-catch-cdc-report-on-us-life-expectancy/ar-AA1kK1Wn? ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e690843496fa4efadbb75c07cc54625e&ei=124 "
(US Life expectancy fell in the last year or two that Obama was president.
Do I blame him for that? To some extent. There’s a hint in that “largely”.)
Then LD, LD, Tory, Lab, Tory, Tory.
In 1997, I remember telling myself I would never vote Tory, but in 2010 I did!
I have a pair.
https://www.thenorthface.co.uk/shop/en-gb/tnf-gb/mens-etip-gloves-4sha?variationId=21L
It's been amusing walking the boats into the river at low tide. Some fools try and use wellies. But you need to get enough water under the boat - so the wellies always flood....
(Atkinson mentions other war crimes in those volumes, including some committed by American troops, especially in North Africa.)
1.) Is the transition relatively orderly? Obviously there's some element of disorderliness in any defenestration of a leader. But an orderly one would be, say, an ordinary contest where a strong winner emerges to lead.
2.) Is the leader a plausible fresh face who can ditch what got the previous leader in trouble and lead a 'new' government.
Both Johnson in 2019 and Major meet that. Despite Brexit providing background chaos in 2019, he won the leadership convincingly and was able to make a fresh pitch. Major was plausibly able to move away from Thatcher's confrontational style and ditch the policies which did for her.
None apply to Sunak. Johnson's removal was very messy. He lost to Truss, then had an awkward emergency coronation after she proved to be a disaster. Plus has a recalcitrant right he's tried to placate but who make him look incredibly weak.
Plus, he was a key decisionmaker or supporter in the defining events of the Johnson premiership so can't really shy away from its screw ups, broken promises, and promotion of Brexit. All of which have intensely annoyed lots of different people and exacerbate a difficult economic picture that leads to people thinking the country is on the wrong track.
I have still never voted blue meanie, but I have voted PC. which is probably worse.
The trouble is I’m in a hire car with normal tyres and the roads here aren’t gritted. I parked on a slope at the auberge and 10 minutes later heard a loud skidding sound. The car had slipped about 3 metres down the slope into the road but fortunately hadn’t hit the wall (yes the handbrake was on).
There is now nothing to do except sit reading PB until dinner at 7.30, because I left the book I was reading back at the house. But I did do some proper tourism earlier. I went to the thermal baths in Aix les Bains, donned my maillot and spent a couple of hours sitting in hot steaming water outside with a view of the mountains above the lake and snowflakes falling on my compulsory swimming cap. Not done one of those old fashioned hot baths before. Good fun.
I have therefore never to this day voted for a winning candidate. And I voted on the losing side in both referendums.
You are in good company - @HYUFD has voted Plaid as well
There are people either not paying much attention to politics, or paying attention mostly to what the government is doing, who are answering pollsters simply on the basis of whether they like the government, offering a vote for the opposition (or a don’t know) if they don’t. The arrival of the election forces them to evaluate all the parties on a parallel basis, and some find they don’t like the opposition offering(s) any the more. You could see the Big_G saga as one of these; someone who spent eighteen months sharing his negative view of Johnson and saying he wouldn’t vote for him; then, when the election came and faced with Corbyn, voting for Johnson after all.
There are those who use their response to the pollster as a form of protest, rather akin to a by-election vote, never really intending to actually vote against their usual party when the election comes.
There are those who are so disaffected that they imagine they don’t intend to vote, but then either get caught up in the cam Yes, but that’s on average.
There are people who do so, because when polling day comes it turns out they are on holiday or working away or ill or in hospital or having a work or personal crisis or forget or many other reasons why they don’t make it to vote. You’d expect this group to be spread randomly.
But there are also people who spend a long time asserting that they don’t intend to vote but usually end up doing so. And, this group probably tends towards voters for the incumbent.
SKS will be delighted.
All that’s been confirmed so far is the SNP officially calling the divorced husband of one party a liar.
The #HumzaBinShagin is a joke based on his desperate attempts to get photo ops at COP to which he was not invited
I have voted SDP, LD , Lab, Green, and Conservative (2010) so 5 parties in all.
Scotland, Germany, Switzerland and Hungary.
If not Forbes... who? Ash Regan buggered off to Alba.