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Will Boris Johnson win a seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,734
    DavidL said:

    I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.

    Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.

    Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
    Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.

    Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:

    - Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up
    - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible
    - Absorb Belarus in due course
    - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes

    They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.

    So the backup plan is surely:

    - Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will
    - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul

    They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    Here we get into the problem with inflation. I'd lay this, but I'd want an above inflation return. I can do better than this sticking the money in a savings account, if the next GE is in the autumn!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849

    Re the previous comment that "verbal contracts are not worth the paper they are written on". AFAIK whilst all formal contracts are verbal, i.e. in words, they may be oral, i.e. spoken, or written.
    Also a contract may be formed by performance where all parties having acted as though there was a contract in place without there being either an oral or written contract.

    All this is true, mostly, but one of the first things you learn in law is that the substantive law is one thing, and the law/rules of evidence is another and is often much more important in determining outcomes.

    Successful criminals know this very well. One of the professional activities which receives remarkably little attention is solicitors who only do privately paid, not legal aid, criminal work. Reflect for a moment on what they do, quite properly, all day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    Nigelb said:

    The whole of North America, really.
    Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.

    How would you categorise S America ?
    While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
    S America is varied. In Chile the incomers did quite a genocidal number of the indigenes. Much more so than in, say, Peru or Bolivia, or even Argentina





  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,734
    Nigelb said:

    The whole of North America, really.
    Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.

    How would you categorise S America ?
    While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
    South America seems closer to the Norman conquest or Han Chinese conquests. An overlord caste imposed on the local population followed by centuries of gradual assimilation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Nigelb said:

    The whole of North America, really.
    Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.

    How would you categorise S America ?
    While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
    The Indians were wiped out in the Caribbean , due to a mix of disease and ill-treatment.

    Argentina also wiped out the lot, but that was after independence.

    In general, though, the Conquistadors were encouraged, even expected, to intermarry, with Indian noblewomen, and their descendants, the criollos, formed the new ruling elite.

    It’s a sad fact that after independence (as further North) the treatment of the Indians deteriorated, in most places.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    edited November 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Quite a few MPs were jailed over the expenses scandal. In other areas senior figures found wrong often lose their jobs but are rarely jailed. White collar criminals are more likely to face a jail sentence in the US though it has to be proved to be a criminal not just civil wrong
    In the circumstances I wouldn't call five, which I think is the number, 'quite a few'.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ex F-14 so what does he know?

    What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
    I don't the relevance.

    He's not the one being interviewed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    TimS said:

    Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.

    Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:

    - Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up
    - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible
    - Absorb Belarus in due course
    - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes

    They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.

    So the backup plan is surely:

    - Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will
    - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul

    They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
    We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU

    i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear

    Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh

    Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland

    And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads

    Spain and Italy don’t count

    Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Flanner said:

    As an anti-Tory activist in a Blue Wall seat that used to be hyper-safe Tory heartland, I'd say blue-rinsers are close to extinct. The boom in high life-expectancy Boomers means most of our pensioners are opinionated graduates, who've jacked up property prices and unintentionally forced working-class Tories out , while the remaining elderly Tories are these days typically too busy with their bucket lists and looking after grandchildren to push leaflets out for an unpopular Tory - or even turn up at Tory Party meetings.

    This probably doesn't stop the reduced Tory membership (mainly eccentric young right-wingers on the make) from exerting the control over local Party decisions once held by retired local businesspeople. But it does mean the elderly middle class vote LD, Green or centrist Labour - or simply don't vote.
    The elderly middle class may vote LD or Green locally but they still largely vote Tory nationally. Over 65s rarely vote Labour either nationally or locally.

    The Tory membership is still largely over 55 to 60, even if the Association executive and top councillors are often younger
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028
    Nigelb said:

    There's a non zero chance that Biden might step down.
    But I agree, his odds seem too short.
    I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    MattW said:

    I don't the relevance.

    He's not the one being interviewed.
    @Dura_Ace is just annoyed because Carroll's a real expert on planes. ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    MattW said:

    Ukraine can't, and won't, back off. Their country has been invaded, and they have memories of being part of Russia when ~3 million people were killed by starvation by Stalin. Putin models himself on Stalin, as we know.

    As I see it, the condition for Ukraine to "win" ie Russia to stop their war and go back home, is that Putin needs to believe that it is more advantageous / less disadvantageous for him / Russia (take your pick) to stop his war than continue it.

    The way for that to happen is for Putin to believe Ukraine's allies to be committed to the defeat of Russia. At present he does not believe that.

    The way for him to be convinces is for Ukraine's allies to commit to the long-term support of Ukraine, and put in place the measures to make necessary support for Ukraine happen.

    At present Russia has reordered its economy on a war footing, Brussels is still shuffling paper around, and the UK Government cut our defence expenditure. And the USA is in a measure of limbo until its next Election.

    All a 'ceasefire' will do is give Russia a pause to sort out its army, and come back with properly organised formations, rather than shovelling new recruits straight into the theatre.

    All that can be remedied, but will it be?
    Currently, Crimea is a giant piñata, filled with Russian troops who are being whacked whilst having no use on the various fronts. It is not a useable warm-water port - it's ships are routinely destroyed by a country with no navy. It's aviation can no longer be safely based there. It is challenging to sell as a centre for tourism. It's water supply is massively constricted. Ukrainian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro pose a threat to Crimea's security, more so to the supply routes through to the northern and eastern fronts.

    A settlement where Russia concedes Crimea in exchange for the eastern oblasts along the current contact lines makes some sense to all sides. Except, Putin could not survive the loss of Crimea. So it cannot be proposed whilst he is still in office.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU

    i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear

    Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh

    Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland

    And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads

    Spain and Italy don’t count

    Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
    Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.

    Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    New Zealand's new conservative government to reverse former PM Ardern's smoking ban under pressure from populist coalition partners New Zealand First

    "New Zealand smoking ban: Health experts criticise new government's shock reversal - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67540190
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    edited November 2023
    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Leon said:

    We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU

    i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear

    Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr

    Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland

    And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads

    Spain and Italy don’t count

    Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
    France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269

    @Dura_Ace is just annoyed because Carroll's a real expert on planes. ;)
    Whilst my keyboard is an expert in typoos.

    Must tune into the BBC interview with the PM to hear the views of Laura Kuenssberg.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    rcs1000 said:

    It's only a matter of time before Nick Clegg is also indicted:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-meta-spokesperson-criminal-wanted-list/

    "In 2022, following Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, Moscow officially designated the American tech company — which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp — as a "terrorist and extremist" organization."
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Barnesian said:

    I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
    She doesn't want the job - which is a point in her favour in my view. It isn't like the Dems have a shallow bench, they actually have a number of interesting potential POTUS', the issue is that a real nomination fight will open up ideological and policy fights the Democratic Party elites don't want to have because a) it will lose them money and b) it could lose them votes (no matter if they end up victorious anyway). We can see with Israel / Palestine that the DNC cares more about policy hegemony than winning votes / the base (whereas the RNC is the opposite, and has been in control of the political situation in the US essentially since Regan).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    148grss said:

    Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.

    Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
    It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey

    I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?

    Otherwise I would ask for payment
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,300
    Nigelb said:

    The 'debt brake' is in the constitution, and rewriting that is rather more difficult than just legislating.

    Easier to legislate away the US debt limit. And that hasn't happened.
    The government will simply declare an emergency situation, like they did the last 3 years, and suspend the debt brake again. This just needs a simple majority in parliament.

    Of course, this could also be subject to legal challenge, but I think the government would have a fairly good case. Plus, I don't think the CDU (who brought the last case which the government just lost) would be keen on another challenge. People are now in the situation of not being sure if they will be able to afford household energy bills in the new year - not ideal in the run up to Christmas. People are assuming the money will be found, it would be a brave politician who tried to prolong the uncertainty.

    On legislating to remove the debt brake (introduced in 2009 so not exactly set in stone) it would take a two thirds majority in parliament, so it won't happen. However, I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to reform it - some senior CDU politicians have said investment spending should be made exempt from the rules, so there's a chance it could be changed.

    Switzerland also has had a constitional debt brake since 2001 (I believe).
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey

    I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?

    Otherwise I would ask for payment
    So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
  • Barnesian said:

    I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
    That would certainly confirm the 'Obama is really in charge' beliefs many have.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    148grss said:

    So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
    I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart

    How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236
    MattW said:

    I don't the relevance.

    He's not the one being interviewed.
    It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.

    WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    This is the election where us LDs come out of nowhere and surprise a few people. Maybe...
    It is possible. The LibDems have a realistic chance of winning between 1 and 5 seats in Oxfordshire. I can't call it either way.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,753
    TimS said:

    Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:

    - Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous
    - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts
    - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council
    - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections
    - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength

    You've missed one:

    - Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.

    Ed Who?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart

    How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
    I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
  • Leon said:

    It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey

    I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?

    Otherwise I would ask for payment
    Lol
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236
    TimS said:


    - Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy

    The Ukrainians were doing a pretty good job at that on their own before the SMO smashed fuck out of it. Their GDP per myzhik was a quarter of Russia and half of Belarus which is a Sovietland theme park.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,996

    You've missed one:

    - Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.

    Ed Who?
    Ed Stone?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    148grss said:

    I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
    Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225

    You've missed one:

    - Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.

    Ed Who?
    That's a common problem in UK politics at the moment, to be fair.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    TimS said:

    Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:

    - Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous
    - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts
    - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council
    - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections
    - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength

    First they came with the activists. And I did not object, because they seemed nice enough :wink:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269

    You’d get into constitutional changes pretty quickly. Constitutional courts tend not to like attempts to remove any of their powers…

    Germany has a special thing about deficit spending and inflation.
    Not a specialism for me, but I think it's fair to say that the German Constitutional Court is quite uniquely heavily dug in, as guardian of the "Basic Law".

    There have been a number of occasions when EU policy has been poleaxed by it - as an indication of how resolute and authoritative it is.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    Dura_Ace said:

    It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.

    WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
    Ono. DA discovers light humour.

    Life becomes more subtle !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    Lol
    Well, seeing as the Knappers’ Gazette DOES pay me for my opinions, you can be fairly sure I would not post any on here unless it amused me and entertained me. I don’t do it to please others, or persuade anyone, and if it ever became a cheerless thing, let alone a chore, I would stop that moment

    As I say, I am sure that is true for all, I am just in an unusual situation where I can actually earn a crust spouting my gibberish, you must surely have felt the same during your career selling hats
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.

    Still shades of hobo-cop there, for me.

    If the hair is failing, will he go for The Edge-like beanie wearing in all circumstances, rather than the Fabricant solution?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    TOPPING said:

    Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.

    isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
  • On topic!

    QTWTAIN!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    .
    TimS said:

    South America seems closer to the Norman conquest or Han Chinese conquests. An overlord caste imposed on the local population followed by centuries of gradual assimilation.
    Except over half of the continent is now of European descent. The Normans were a very small minority, though the cultural impact was massive.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Leon said:

    isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
    Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
  • Leon said:

    isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
    It is all his solid muscle (see PBs passim) wasting away now Boris no longer has access to the House of Commons gymnasium.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Dura_Ace said:

    It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.

    WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
    Joan of Arc in an F14 ..
    or just ophthalmic ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,429
    edited November 2023

    You've missed one:

    - Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.

    Ed Who?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    "I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
  • On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.

    Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
    Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.

    I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.

    Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
  • Nigelb said:

    Joan of Arc in an F14 ..
    or just ophthalmic ?
    It has been reported that the US Navy (like the RN) faces a shortage of submariners. The reason is Lasik. Apparently a lot of submariners are wannabe pilots who failed the eyesight tests. In the past this meant five years dodging sunlight as the next best option but nowadays a quick visit to the local ophthalmic surgeon revives the Top Gun dream.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,536
    TOPPING said:

    Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
    It’s the first weight loss drug that actually works without carrying a significant risk of killing you in the process. Unsurprisingly it has a bunch of mostly gut related side effects, but people seem prepared to tolerate those side effects in return for the weight loss & other health benefits, hence the worldwide shortages of the stuff.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide
  • On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.

    Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.

    Only MPs can stand for the Conservative leadership, so Boris's best chance is to return via a safe seat in the next general election. There will be enough MPs retiring that he has a choice. He cannot be elected leader from outside the Commons.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,988
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
    Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,673
    edited November 2023

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    "I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
    I still think Ed was a better option than his brothrt.

    I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.

    The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
  • UK school pupils ‘using AI to create indecent imagery of other children’
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/27/uk-school-pupils-using-ai-create-indecent-sexual-abuse-images-of-other-children

    We will know we have reached AGI when our silicon overlords create their own porn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    148grss said:

    Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.

    I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.

    Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
    How would you square "this land is your land, this land is my land" with having no borders? Something like anyone being able to live in a place but they have to put up a land acknowledgement sign?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    How would you square "this land is your land, this land is my land" with having no borders? Something like anyone being able to live in a place but they have to put up a land acknowledgement sign?
    I mean, it's a line from an old hippie song where essentially the argument is that nation states are a fiction and the idea that any people or peoples can claim ownership of land rather than it just being something that all people are entitled to living in is nonsense. Again - ideal world, utopianism, whatever criticism you want to say, it is what I would argue policy should aim towards if not create overnight. In a practical sense - remove the operation of state violence from policing the use of and access to land.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    UK school pupils ‘using AI to create indecent imagery of other children’
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/27/uk-school-pupils-using-ai-create-indecent-sexual-abuse-images-of-other-children

    We will know we have reached AGI when our silicon overlords create their own porn.

    I mean, I would argue before they create their own porn they would need a desire to consume it - that step would be suggestive of actual consciousness more than just the creation of something humans like to consume.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,728

    ...

    Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
    I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    TOPPING said:

    Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
    It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on

    I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)

    The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper

    It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,874
    edited November 2023
    Channel 5 forced to pull show from [yesterday’s] TV schedule at the last minute after star’s ‘vile Nazi rants’ uncovered
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/24863850/channel-5-schedule-nazi/

    Channel 5 pulled The Year The Thames Flooded (1928, apparently) which was set to screen at 9pm.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Extreme weather contributing one-third of all food price inflation with worse to come in 2024, warn climate researchers
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/27/climate-crisis-energy-costs-fuel-uk-household-food-bill-rise

    As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
  • I still think Ed was a better option than his brothrt.

    I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.

    The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
    I - who am not a LD - confirm that Ed Davey is a good man 👍. However I still don't LD to get more than around 25 seats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Leon said:

    It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on

    I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)

    The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
    Not while they're in patent, they won't.
  • If the Tories take the hammering that the polls suggest then there'll be sweet FA for Boris to return for. I think the Tories are a bit deluded at present. They're completely unprepared for how irrelevant they are about to become.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Leon said:

    It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on

    I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)

    The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper

    It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
    ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    I - who am not a LD - confirm that Ed Davey is a good man 👍. However I still don't LD to get more than around 25 seats.
    I don't doubt he's a good man, but he isn't a stirring politician. I wonder if post Clegg there is a fear amongst the membership of promoting someone charismatic to the leadership role because of what happened, or if the fallout of the coalition just destroyed the talent base of the LDs so thoroughly that any alluring politicians in the party have had to do the slow climb up the ladder over the last decade before they could be considered leadership material.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    Nigelb said:

    Not while they're in patent, they won't.
    Are they? (Genuine question)

    I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss

    I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
  • 148grss said:

    Extreme weather contributing one-third of all food price inflation with worse to come in 2024, warn climate researchers
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/27/climate-crisis-energy-costs-fuel-uk-household-food-bill-rise

    As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.

    Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Japan is making a serious effort to get back into the chip foundry business.
    (Something else which might get snookered by a Trump presidency, since it depends on US cooperation.)

    Rapidus ramps as construction begins on 2nm wafer fab
    Japanese foundry startup also shipping engineers off to US to study IBM chip tech
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/01/rapidus_hiring_fab/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    TOPPING said:

    ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.

    Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud

    For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    TOPPING said:

    ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.

    But requires zero effort, unlike the rest.
    A possible thyroid cancer risk, and gut problems, are a small price to pay.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Are they? (Genuine question)

    I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss

    I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
    They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)

    "Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    edited November 2023
    148grss said:

    I mean, it's a line from an old hippie song where essentially the argument is that nation states are a fiction and the idea that any people or peoples can claim ownership of land rather than it just being something that all people are entitled to living in is nonsense. Again - ideal world, utopianism, whatever criticism you want to say, it is what I would argue policy should aim towards if not create overnight. In a practical sense - remove the operation of state violence from policing the use of and access to Levelling the land.
    1991 was an astonishingly good year for album releases
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    Cookie said:

    I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
    Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking

    I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that

    Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Leon said:

    Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud

    For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished



    Yes - and @Nigelb - of course there is no effort which makes it hugely more attractive.

    And also, if I may be allowed to be self-critical, saying a weight loss method works when you're doing it and doesn't when you're not is an insight of no special note.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    TOPPING said:

    Yes - and @Nigelb - of course there is no effort which makes it hugely more attractive.

    And also, if I may be allowed to be self-critical, saying a weight loss method works when you're doing it and doesn't when you're not is an insight of no special note.
    For the obese, they are potentially a life saver.
    For the rest of us, it's just being lazy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)

    "Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
    Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks

    In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Leon said:

    Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud

    For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
    And speaking of which, putting calories on the menus at restaurants has all but killed the thrill of going out to eat stone dead.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
    You say that, but China, Canada and the US all had a wave of extreme drought and extreme flooding that cut wheat and rice production before you even get to the fertiliser issue. And this has been going on for a good few summers now:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/01/climate-crisis-us-food-system-five-crops

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/drought-caused-wheat-canola-and-barley-production-to-plummet-in-2021-statcan-1.5694566

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/drought-threatens-us-wheat-production-despite-acreage-bump-2023-02-02/

    These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
  • Channel 5 forced to pull show from [yesterday’s] TV schedule at the last minute after star’s ‘vile Nazi rants’ uncovered
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/24863850/channel-5-schedule-nazi/

    Channel 5 pulled The Year The Thames Flooded (1928, apparently) which was set to screen at 9pm.

    Bizarre. The woman appears to be some foul-mouthed uneducated chavvie oik. Why was it thought she had anything to offer a serious documentary in the first place?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    Nigelb said:

    But requires zero effort, unlike the rest.
    A possible thyroid cancer risk, and gut problems, are a small price to pay.
    Major obesity is an immediate and proximate health risk, compared to a small future risk of some cancer or flatulence

    For any obese British person, the calculus is clear - if they or the NHS can afford it
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    Leon said:

    Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks

    In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
    Expect that in the NHS - we are about the highest user of generics in Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Leon said:

    Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking

    I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that

    Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
    You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    148grss said:

    You say that, but China, Canada and the US all had a wave of extreme drought and extreme flooding that cut wheat and rice production before you even get to the fertiliser issue. And this has been going on for a good few summers now:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/01/climate-crisis-us-food-system-five-crops

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/drought-caused-wheat-canola-and-barley-production-to-plummet-in-2021-statcan-1.5694566

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/drought-threatens-us-wheat-production-despite-acreage-bump-2023-02-02/

    These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
    I thought it was all down to Brexit.

    :smile:
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    MattW said:

    I thought it was all down to Brexit.

    :smile:
    Brexit has more of an impact when thinking about UK specific crops and workers needed for those - it certainly doesn't help us.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849

    If the Tories take the hammering that the polls suggest then there'll be sweet FA for Boris to return for. I think the Tories are a bit deluded at present. They're completely unprepared for how irrelevant they are about to become.

    Look two or more years ahead. If Labour manage expectations badly, are forced into alliances that prove tricky (a better chance than people seem to think), allow a resurgence of the left/anti semitism, meet with some black swans, and/or generally screw up the Tories will become relevant quite soon. There is no alternative government in sight, and all politics is relative.

    Boris will be 64 in 2028. I think he will stay out of parliamentary politics but it is not impossible. I don't think he will stand in 2024. But if, say, in 2026 Labour is sunk and a byelection comes up that he can't lose, that would be his way back. 10-15% chance of that sort of outcome.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Leon said:

    Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks

    In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
    The chemical formulas are no secret at all (though some of the manufacturing processes won't be published), so there will be fakes.
    But of course in that case, there will be considerable risk in taking them.

    Genuine generics will take much longer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    HYUFD said:

    New Zealand's new conservative government to reverse former PM Ardern's smoking ban under pressure from populist coalition partners New Zealand First

    "New Zealand smoking ban: Health experts criticise new government's shock reversal - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67540190

    It's a refreshing change to see a Western government taking the view that it is not their business to save people from themselves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    Nigelb said:

    You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
    I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff

    I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying

    It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Leon said:

    Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking

    I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that

    Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
    It was a good pastiche of the sort of thing that Peter Hitchens would write.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667

    On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.

    Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.

    I ran into him recently (tbf he was his usual affable self and spontaneously raised the animal welfare issue I asked him about 5 years ago) - looked much the same as always. Certainly up for another go, I'd think, but I also think there's no percentage in doing it before the election.

    The tricky bit is that there will (if the Tories lose) be an immediate leadership election afterwards when someone else will win, and that someone won't want Boris breathing down their neck. So his optimal moment may be a year or so later when/if the new leader hasn't had much chance to mke an impact and the backwoods are restive.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    algarkirk said:

    Look two or more years ahead. If Labour manage expectations badly, are forced into alliances that prove tricky (a better chance than people seem to think), allow a resurgence of the left/anti semitism, meet with some black swans, and/or generally screw up the Tories will become relevant quite soon. There is no alternative government in sight, and all politics is relative.

    Boris will be 64 in 2028. I think he will stay out of parliamentary politics but it is not impossible. I don't think he will stand in 2024. But if, say, in 2026 Labour is sunk and a byelection comes up that he can't lose, that would be his way back. 10-15% chance of that sort of outcome.
    I think the bigger issue for Labour is under promising and still under delivering - they are essentially arguing to be Tory lite who are competent at austerity, rather than the Tory party at the moment which is pretty hard right and also incompetent. If things don't get better (which I doubt they will considering SKS's current policy platform) I don't necessarily people heading straight to the Tories, though. I think RefUK and the Greens will see increases - as people on the left and right increasingly feel the Tories / Labour don't represent them / won't enact their preferred policies anyway.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff

    I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying

    It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
    The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Leon said:

    I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff

    I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying

    It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
    I do try to distinguish between discussing stuff with you and occasionally taking the piss.
    And there are genuine questions about the adequacy of arms supplies to Ukraine.

    I think your thoughts about armistice are wrong, but I take them seriously, FWIW.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    148grss said:

    The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
    Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me

    I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me

    I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
    I mean it's a bad case of Poe's law. Because your absurd sincere views and your absurd jokey views are still ideologically aligned, and you often cite people who sincerely believe things that you say you jokingly state - alongside the added social navigation issues of internet based conversation - it seems difficult to tell either way.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Leon said:

    Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me

    I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
    Sometimes, it can be hard to distinguish a really good parody from the real thing. The Onion published a mock interview with JK Rowling, once, in which she explained that the whole purpose of writing Harry Potter books was to bring children into Satanism, and until the last couple of paragraphs, it did sound genuine.

    Best of all, some US evangelical groups thought it was genuine.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    HYUFD said:

    The elderly middle class may vote LD or Green locally but they still largely vote Tory nationally. Over 65s rarely vote Labour either nationally or locally.

    The Tory membership is still largely over 55 to 60, even if the Association executive and top councillors are often younger
    It was really noticeable in mid-Beds that the Tory organisation barely existed. I saw just one Tory leaflet and two Tory canvassers in 3 days (lots of colleagues saw none), and they didn't even have cover at polling stations. We were baffled by it - did they have a secret plan? Was there going to be a flood of people on polling day? But in the event they just didn't show up. And that was a by-election - what will it be like at the GE?

    Labour and LibDems didn't have that many local people either, but both parties flooded the seat with keen volunteers from all over the compass.
This discussion has been closed.