Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
Here we get into the problem with inflation. I'd lay this, but I'd want an above inflation return. I can do better than this sticking the money in a savings account, if the next GE is in the autumn!
Re the previous comment that "verbal contracts are not worth the paper they are written on". AFAIK whilst all formal contracts are verbal, i.e. in words, they may be oral, i.e. spoken, or written. Also a contract may be formed by performance where all parties having acted as though there was a contract in place without there being either an oral or written contract.
All this is true, mostly, but one of the first things you learn in law is that the substantive law is one thing, and the law/rules of evidence is another and is often much more important in determining outcomes.
Successful criminals know this very well. One of the professional activities which receives remarkably little attention is solicitors who only do privately paid, not legal aid, criminal work. Reflect for a moment on what they do, quite properly, all day.
A very long, slow grind seems most likely to me now.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
I can’t see either side giving up
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
List of hostile invasions in past 1,000 years successfully held in the long-term by the invader:
1. The Norman conquest. 2. ...er?
There are plenty of examples. The entirety of Russia for a start.
And the whole United States
The whole of North America, really. Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.
How would you categorise S America ? While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
S America is varied. In Chile the incomers did quite a genocidal number of the indigenes. Much more so than in, say, Peru or Bolivia, or even Argentina
A very long, slow grind seems most likely to me now.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
I can’t see either side giving up
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
List of hostile invasions in past 1,000 years successfully held in the long-term by the invader:
1. The Norman conquest. 2. ...er?
There are plenty of examples. The entirety of Russia for a start.
And the whole United States
The whole of North America, really. Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.
How would you categorise S America ? While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
South America seems closer to the Norman conquest or Han Chinese conquests. An overlord caste imposed on the local population followed by centuries of gradual assimilation.
A very long, slow grind seems most likely to me now.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
I can’t see either side giving up
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
List of hostile invasions in past 1,000 years successfully held in the long-term by the invader:
1. The Norman conquest. 2. ...er?
There are plenty of examples. The entirety of Russia for a start.
And the whole United States
The whole of North America, really. Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.
How would you categorise S America ? While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
The Indians were wiped out in the Caribbean , due to a mix of disease and ill-treatment.
Argentina also wiped out the lot, but that was after independence.
In general, though, the Conquistadors were encouraged, even expected, to intermarry, with Indian noblewomen, and their descendants, the criollos, formed the new ruling elite.
It’s a sad fact that after independence (as further North) the treatment of the Indians deteriorated, in most places.
If he returns to Parliament won't he still have to serve his suspension? Or does a GE cancel that, a bit like these police officers signing up for a different force?
Cancels it.
However there's nothing stopping the new Parliament from reimposing the suspension.
Reimposing the suspension would be wrong IMO, if he is re-elected.
On grounds of precedent, perhaps. But the man drove a coach and horses through Parliamentary etiquette and the Ministerial Code. He brought Parliament into disrepute.
I don't think that is acceptable. Of course the suspension should be re-imposed, and that should be the usual rule.
The former corrupt MP for Ashfield & then Beaconsfield, Tim Smith, took £25k in cash from Mohammed Al-Fayed, and was not held to account for his criminality because he stepped down at an election.
Is that what we want in our legislature?
Do we tolerate abuse, corruption and criminality for the sake of ... what?
Where do we draw the line?
We all know that an entire phalanx of MPs got away with expenses fraud back before the expenses scandal, and very few were held to serious account.
We let the ruling class resign and move to a different job for more money when they are guilty of white collar crime in banking, the post office, the police, councils and most of the public and private sector. Why should it be any different for MPs?
Quite a few MPs were jailed over the expenses scandal. In other areas senior figures found wrong often lose their jobs but are rarely jailed. White collar criminals are more likely to face a jail sentence in the US though it has to be proved to be a criminal not just civil wrong
In the circumstances I wouldn't call five, which I think is the number, 'quite a few'.
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
He would have to either get on the list of Conservative candidates - or win as an independent. Either way, there would be huge tactical voting against him. If the mood by the election is to give the Tories a kicking, it will be doubly so for him. "Were you up for Boris?" is not what his ego wants to hear.
So next general election? Nah. If he has any ambitions of "doing a Churchill", it will have to wait.
He'll need to reinvent himself first. Partly because he will be bald by then.
As you say, he would further tarnish the brand and remind voters of stuff the party is desperately hoping we might forget, or at least overlook….
Bless, you genuinely think Boris Johnson would put the needs of others ahead of his own selfish desires?
As Mark says, he would need to get approved and selected first.
He remains catnip to the blue rinse brigade. I don't know the mechanics of the Conservative Party. Do the blue rinsers still oil the wheels of the party?
As an anti-Tory activist in a Blue Wall seat that used to be hyper-safe Tory heartland, I'd say blue-rinsers are close to extinct. The boom in high life-expectancy Boomers means most of our pensioners are opinionated graduates, who've jacked up property prices and unintentionally forced working-class Tories out , while the remaining elderly Tories are these days typically too busy with their bucket lists and looking after grandchildren to push leaflets out for an unpopular Tory - or even turn up at Tory Party meetings.
This probably doesn't stop the reduced Tory membership (mainly eccentric young right-wingers on the make) from exerting the control over local Party decisions once held by retired local businesspeople. But it does mean the elderly middle class vote LD, Green or centrist Labour - or simply don't vote.
The elderly middle class may vote LD or Green locally but they still largely vote Tory nationally. Over 65s rarely vote Labour either nationally or locally.
The Tory membership is still largely over 55 to 60, even if the Association executive and top councillors are often younger
I'm looking at the Dem nomination polling, the fact that ballot registrations have closed for several of the most important early states and the fact that it's now barely 9 months until the Democratic National Convention. And I cannot work out why Gavin Newsom is still so short, other than he's a relatively photogenic incumbent governor of California and not obviously deranged.
Can someone explain to me please?
There's a non zero chance that Biden might step down. But I agree, his odds seem too short.
I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
@Dura_Ace is just annoyed because Carroll's a real expert on planes.
A very long, slow grind seems most likely to me now.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
I can’t see either side giving up
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
Ukraine can't, and won't, back off. Their country has been invaded, and they have memories of being part of Russia when ~3 million people were killed by starvation by Stalin. Putin models himself on Stalin, as we know.
As I see it, the condition for Ukraine to "win" ie Russia to stop their war and go back home, is that Putin needs to believe that it is more advantageous / less disadvantageous for him / Russia (take your pick) to stop his war than continue it.
The way for that to happen is for Putin to believe Ukraine's allies to be committed to the defeat of Russia. At present he does not believe that.
The way for him to be convinces is for Ukraine's allies to commit to the long-term support of Ukraine, and put in place the measures to make necessary support for Ukraine happen.
At present Russia has reordered its economy on a war footing, Brussels is still shuffling paper around, and the UK Government cut our defence expenditure. And the USA is in a measure of limbo until its next Election.
All a 'ceasefire' will do is give Russia a pause to sort out its army, and come back with properly organised formations, rather than shovelling new recruits straight into the theatre.
All that can be remedied, but will it be?
Currently, Crimea is a giant piñata, filled with Russian troops who are being whacked whilst having no use on the various fronts. It is not a useable warm-water port - it's ships are routinely destroyed by a country with no navy. It's aviation can no longer be safely based there. It is challenging to sell as a centre for tourism. It's water supply is massively constricted. Ukrainian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro pose a threat to Crimea's security, more so to the supply routes through to the northern and eastern fronts.
A settlement where Russia concedes Crimea in exchange for the eastern oblasts along the current contact lines makes some sense to all sides. Except, Putin could not survive the loss of Crimea. So it cannot be proposed whilst he is still in office.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
@Dura_Ace is just annoyed because Carroll's a real expert on planes.
Whilst my keyboard is an expert in typoos.
Must tune into the BBC interview with the PM to hear the views of Laura Kuenssberg.
"In 2022, following Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, Moscow officially designated the American tech company — which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp — as a "terrorist and extremist" organization."
I'm looking at the Dem nomination polling, the fact that ballot registrations have closed for several of the most important early states and the fact that it's now barely 9 months until the Democratic National Convention. And I cannot work out why Gavin Newsom is still so short, other than he's a relatively photogenic incumbent governor of California and not obviously deranged.
Can someone explain to me please?
There's a non zero chance that Biden might step down. But I agree, his odds seem too short.
I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
She doesn't want the job - which is a point in her favour in my view. It isn't like the Dems have a shallow bench, they actually have a number of interesting potential POTUS', the issue is that a real nomination fight will open up ideological and policy fights the Democratic Party elites don't want to have because a) it will lose them money and b) it could lose them votes (no matter if they end up victorious anyway). We can see with Israel / Palestine that the DNC cares more about policy hegemony than winning votes / the base (whereas the RNC is the opposite, and has been in control of the political situation in the US essentially since Regan).
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Dave and George never had a constitutional court to contend with.
This is almost as stupid as the U.S. debt limit.
Germany chokes on its own austerity medicine https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-debt-austerity-climate-olaf-scholz-christian-lindner/ ...Last week’s jaw-dropping constitutional court ruling that effectively rendered the core of the German government’s legislative agenda null and void has left the country in a collective shock. In order to circumvent Germany’s self-imposed deficit strictures, which give governments little room to spend more than they collect in taxes, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition relied on a network of “special funds” outside the main budget. Scholz was convinced the government could tap the money without violating the so-called debt brake.
The court, in no uncertain terms, disagreed. The ruling raises questions about the government’s ability to access a total of €869 billion parked outside the federal budget in 29 “special funds.” The court’s move forced the government to both freeze new spending and put approval of next year’s budget on hold.
A week after the decision, both the magnitude of the ruling and the reality that there’s no easy way out have become increasingly clear. Though Scholz has promised to come up with a new plan “very quickly,” few see a resolution without imposing austerity...
Naive question maybe, but can't the German government legislate to change the deficit rules?
The 'debt brake' is in the constitution, and rewriting that is rather more difficult than just legislating.
Easier to legislate away the US debt limit. And that hasn't happened.
The government will simply declare an emergency situation, like they did the last 3 years, and suspend the debt brake again. This just needs a simple majority in parliament.
Of course, this could also be subject to legal challenge, but I think the government would have a fairly good case. Plus, I don't think the CDU (who brought the last case which the government just lost) would be keen on another challenge. People are now in the situation of not being sure if they will be able to afford household energy bills in the new year - not ideal in the run up to Christmas. People are assuming the money will be found, it would be a brave politician who tried to prolong the uncertainty.
On legislating to remove the debt brake (introduced in 2009 so not exactly set in stone) it would take a two thirds majority in parliament, so it won't happen. However, I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to reform it - some senior CDU politicians have said investment spending should be made exempt from the rules, so there's a chance it could be changed.
Switzerland also has had a constitional debt brake since 2001 (I believe).
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I'm looking at the Dem nomination polling, the fact that ballot registrations have closed for several of the most important early states and the fact that it's now barely 9 months until the Democratic National Convention. And I cannot work out why Gavin Newsom is still so short, other than he's a relatively photogenic incumbent governor of California and not obviously deranged.
Can someone explain to me please?
There's a non zero chance that Biden might step down. But I agree, his odds seem too short.
I think Biden will only step down if Michelle can be persuaded to step up.
That would certainly confirm the 'Obama is really in charge' beliefs many have.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.
WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
Weirdly the Henley Conservative PPC selection (his old constituency) is still unresolved after endless allegations of mispractice.
But I haven’t seen any great appetite locally for recalling Boris. It’s an outside chance of a LibDem gain - the District Council is LD-dominated - though that would probably require a Daveygasm.
This is the election where us LDs come out of nowhere and surprise a few people. Maybe...
It is possible. The LibDems have a realistic chance of winning between 1 and 5 seats in Oxfordshire. I can't call it either way.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy
The Ukrainians were doing a pretty good job at that on their own before the SMO smashed fuck out of it. Their GDP per myzhik was a quarter of Russia and half of Belarus which is a Sovietland theme park.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
Ed Who?
That's a common problem in UK politics at the moment, to be fair.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
First they came with the activists. And I did not object, because they seemed nice enough
Dave and George never had a constitutional court to contend with.
This is almost as stupid as the U.S. debt limit.
Germany chokes on its own austerity medicine https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-debt-austerity-climate-olaf-scholz-christian-lindner/ ...Last week’s jaw-dropping constitutional court ruling that effectively rendered the core of the German government’s legislative agenda null and void has left the country in a collective shock. In order to circumvent Germany’s self-imposed deficit strictures, which give governments little room to spend more than they collect in taxes, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition relied on a network of “special funds” outside the main budget. Scholz was convinced the government could tap the money without violating the so-called debt brake.
The court, in no uncertain terms, disagreed. The ruling raises questions about the government’s ability to access a total of €869 billion parked outside the federal budget in 29 “special funds.” The court’s move forced the government to both freeze new spending and put approval of next year’s budget on hold.
A week after the decision, both the magnitude of the ruling and the reality that there’s no easy way out have become increasingly clear. Though Scholz has promised to come up with a new plan “very quickly,” few see a resolution without imposing austerity...
Naive question maybe, but can't the German government legislate to change the deficit rules?
You’d get into constitutional changes pretty quickly. Constitutional courts tend not to like attempts to remove any of their powers…
Germany has a special thing about deficit spending and inflation.
Not a specialism for me, but I think it's fair to say that the German Constitutional Court is quite uniquely heavily dug in, as guardian of the "Basic Law".
There have been a number of occasions when EU policy has been poleaxed by it - as an indication of how resolute and authoritative it is.
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.
WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
Lol
Well, seeing as the Knappers’ Gazette DOES pay me for my opinions, you can be fairly sure I would not post any on here unless it amused me and entertained me. I don’t do it to please others, or persuade anyone, and if it ever became a cheerless thing, let alone a chore, I would stop that moment
As I say, I am sure that is true for all, I am just in an unusual situation where I can actually earn a crust spouting my gibberish, you must surely have felt the same during your career selling hats
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
Still shades of hobo-cop there, for me.
If the hair is failing, will he go for The Edge-like beanie wearing in all circumstances, rather than the Fabricant solution?
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
A very long, slow grind seems most likely to me now.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
I can’t see either side giving up
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
List of hostile invasions in past 1,000 years successfully held in the long-term by the invader:
1. The Norman conquest. 2. ...er?
There are plenty of examples. The entirety of Russia for a start.
And the whole United States
The whole of North America, really. Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.
How would you categorise S America ? While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
South America seems closer to the Norman conquest or Han Chinese conquests. An overlord caste imposed on the local population followed by centuries of gradual assimilation.
Except over half of the continent is now of European descent. The Normans were a very small minority, though the cultural impact was massive.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
It is all his solid muscle (see PBs passim) wasting away now Boris no longer has access to the House of Commons gymnasium.
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.
WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.
Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.
I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.
Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
I don't the relevance.
He's not the one being interviewed.
It was light touch humour coz I'm ex-F14 too.
WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
Joan of Arc in an F14 .. or just ophthalmic ?
It has been reported that the US Navy (like the RN) faces a shortage of submariners. The reason is Lasik. Apparently a lot of submariners are wannabe pilots who failed the eyesight tests. In the past this meant five years dodging sunlight as the next best option but nowadays a quick visit to the local ophthalmic surgeon revives the Top Gun dream.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It’s the first weight loss drug that actually works without carrying a significant risk of killing you in the process. Unsurprisingly it has a bunch of mostly gut related side effects, but people seem prepared to tolerate those side effects in return for the weight loss & other health benefits, hence the worldwide shortages of the stuff.
On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.
Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.
Only MPs can stand for the Conservative leadership, so Boris's best chance is to return via a safe seat in the next general election. There will be enough MPs retiring that he has a choice. He cannot be elected leader from outside the Commons.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
"I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
I still think Ed was a better option than his brothrt.
I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.
The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.
I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.
Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
How would you square "this land is your land, this land is my land" with having no borders? Something like anyone being able to live in a place but they have to put up a land acknowledgement sign?
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.
I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.
Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
How would you square "this land is your land, this land is my land" with having no borders? Something like anyone being able to live in a place but they have to put up a land acknowledgement sign?
I mean, it's a line from an old hippie song where essentially the argument is that nation states are a fiction and the idea that any people or peoples can claim ownership of land rather than it just being something that all people are entitled to living in is nonsense. Again - ideal world, utopianism, whatever criticism you want to say, it is what I would argue policy should aim towards if not create overnight. In a practical sense - remove the operation of state violence from policing the use of and access to land.
We will know we have reached AGI when our silicon overlords create their own porn.
I mean, I would argue before they create their own porn they would need a desire to consume it - that step would be suggestive of actual consciousness more than just the creation of something humans like to consume.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
"I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
I still think Ed was a better option than his brothrt.
I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.
The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
I - who am not a LD - confirm that Ed Davey is a good man 👍. However I still don't LD to get more than around 25 seats.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
If the Tories take the hammering that the polls suggest then there'll be sweet FA for Boris to return for. I think the Tories are a bit deluded at present. They're completely unprepared for how irrelevant they are about to become.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
Of course the preferred strategy for conquering territory and establishing suzerainty over the local population while retaining their consent and respecting human rights is as follows:
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous - Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts - Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council - Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections - Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
You've missed one:
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
"I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
I still think Ed was a better option than his brothrt.
I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.
The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
I - who am not a LD - confirm that Ed Davey is a good man 👍. However I still don't LD to get more than around 25 seats.
I don't doubt he's a good man, but he isn't a stirring politician. I wonder if post Clegg there is a fear amongst the membership of promoting someone charismatic to the leadership role because of what happened, or if the fallout of the coalition just destroyed the talent base of the LDs so thoroughly that any alluring politicians in the party have had to do the slow climb up the ladder over the last decade before they could be considered leadership material.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
Not while they're in patent, they won't.
Are they? (Genuine question)
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
Japan is making a serious effort to get back into the chip foundry business. (Something else which might get snookered by a Trump presidency, since it depends on US cooperation.)
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud
For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
But requires zero effort, unlike the rest. A possible thyroid cancer risk, and gut problems, are a small price to pay.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
Not while they're in patent, they won't.
Are they? (Genuine question)
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)
"Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
Why stop there? When you think about it, Anglo-Saxons are basically the same as Germans, so England (and only England, rather than our Celtic neighbours) should become part of a new Holy Roman Empire. We should also cede the channel islands to France, the Falklands to Argentina, and so on.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
It takes a bit more than that to shock the hardened geeks of PB. I’d be better off posting a poll with the Tories in the lead in Anglesey
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
So for masturbatory enjoyment? That does explain why you act like a wanker, then.
I’m quite surprised at you being so pro-NATO, sweetheart
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
I'm not pro-NATO, I am anti-imperialist and Russia is as much an imperialist project as the US. Both states / blocs in a conflict can be bad, and one can still wish for the emancipation of the people who are killed in such a conflict on both sides. The Russian people do not deserve to live under a hard right kleptocracy, and the Ukrainian people do not deserve to be under attack nor feel their only route to safety is the cold embrace of neoliberal hegemony.
Are you not an advocate of neoliberal hegemony when it comes to the free movement of people?
Not for the reason neoliberalism is - they want free movement of capital (for the benefit of rich people) and workers (for the benefit of extracting profit from their labour) not out of any desire for the people involved.
I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.
Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
How would you square "this land is your land, this land is my land" with having no borders? Something like anyone being able to live in a place but they have to put up a land acknowledgement sign?
I mean, it's a line from an old hippie song where essentially the argument is that nation states are a fiction and the idea that any people or peoples can claim ownership of land rather than it just being something that all people are entitled to living in is nonsense. Again - ideal world, utopianism, whatever criticism you want to say, it is what I would argue policy should aim towards if not create overnight. In a practical sense - remove the operation of state violence from policing the use of and access to Levelling the land.
1991 was an astonishingly good year for album releases
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud
For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
Yes - and @Nigelb - of course there is no effort which makes it hugely more attractive.
And also, if I may be allowed to be self-critical, saying a weight loss method works when you're doing it and doesn't when you're not is an insight of no special note.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud
For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
Yes - and @Nigelb - of course there is no effort which makes it hugely more attractive.
And also, if I may be allowed to be self-critical, saying a weight loss method works when you're doing it and doesn't when you're not is an insight of no special note.
For the obese, they are potentially a life saver. For the rest of us, it's just being lazy.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
Not while they're in patent, they won't.
Are they? (Genuine question)
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)
"Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks
In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
Well, yes, but requiring a lot less effort and dedication. No hours at the gym, no calorie counting and tedious jogging, no desperate resisting of delicious puds in nice restaurants. Your appetite just falls away, and you don’t actually want a pud
For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
And speaking of which, putting calories on the menus at restaurants has all but killed the thrill of going out to eat stone dead.
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
You say that, but China, Canada and the US all had a wave of extreme drought and extreme flooding that cut wheat and rice production before you even get to the fertiliser issue. And this has been going on for a good few summers now:
These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
Channel 5 pulled The Year The Thames Flooded (1928, apparently) which was set to screen at 9pm.
Bizarre. The woman appears to be some foul-mouthed uneducated chavvie oik. Why was it thought she had anything to offer a serious documentary in the first place?
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
ah thanks (and @Phil). So like any weightloss method. Works when you're doing it, doesn't when you're not. gotit.
But requires zero effort, unlike the rest. A possible thyroid cancer risk, and gut problems, are a small price to pay.
Major obesity is an immediate and proximate health risk, compared to a small future risk of some cancer or flatulence
For any obese British person, the calculus is clear - if they or the NHS can afford it
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
Not while they're in patent, they won't.
Are they? (Genuine question)
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)
"Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks
In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
Expect that in the NHS - we are about the highest user of generics in Europe.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
You say that, but China, Canada and the US all had a wave of extreme drought and extreme flooding that cut wheat and rice production before you even get to the fertiliser issue. And this has been going on for a good few summers now:
These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
Some seriously dodgy analysis in there by the looks of things,. For a start, one of the core reasons why food prices have risen in 2023 is that farmers used fertiliser bought in 2022 - when prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was passed through to the consumer in 2023. But, according to that analysis on the charts, it had minimal impact.
You say that, but China, Canada and the US all had a wave of extreme drought and extreme flooding that cut wheat and rice production before you even get to the fertiliser issue. And this has been going on for a good few summers now:
These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
I thought it was all down to Brexit.
Brexit has more of an impact when thinking about UK specific crops and workers needed for those - it certainly doesn't help us.
If the Tories take the hammering that the polls suggest then there'll be sweet FA for Boris to return for. I think the Tories are a bit deluded at present. They're completely unprepared for how irrelevant they are about to become.
Look two or more years ahead. If Labour manage expectations badly, are forced into alliances that prove tricky (a better chance than people seem to think), allow a resurgence of the left/anti semitism, meet with some black swans, and/or generally screw up the Tories will become relevant quite soon. There is no alternative government in sight, and all politics is relative.
Boris will be 64 in 2028. I think he will stay out of parliamentary politics but it is not impossible. I don't think he will stand in 2024. But if, say, in 2026 Labour is sunk and a byelection comes up that he can't lose, that would be his way back. 10-15% chance of that sort of outcome.
Whether he does or doesn't looking at the pictures of him on the anti-semitism march he is looking in pretty good form. Much fitter than he has in a long time, why is that a cheekbone I can almost see framing that loveable grin.
isn’t he on Ozempic? I believe he wrote a column about it
Does that have a zillion side effects or does it work.
It works. It certainly worked for me - with minor side effects, a touch of nausea, for a day or two - but the trouble it certainly stops working when you stop taking it. So I lost a fair few pounds, then the world ran out of Ozempic, and the pounds went back on
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper..
Not while they're in patent, they won't.
Are they? (Genuine question)
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
They are under patent, and therefore Eli Lilly and Novo will milk them for every dollar and euro they can. (Which in Novo's case is enough to transform the economy of Denmark.)
"Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
Fair enough, i did not know that, so thanks
In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
The chemical formulas are no secret at all (though some of the manufacturing processes won't be published), so there will be fakes. But of course in that case, there will be considerable risk in taking them.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
It was a good pastiche of the sort of thing that Peter Hitchens would write.
On topic - I expect Johnson will attempt a comeback but not before the next GE. Too much chance of a 'Portillo moment' and no desire to spend five years in Opposition. He will aim to get back in after that and then undermine whoever is leader. His chances of being elected PM via a GE = very low. His chances via a Con leadership putsch = pretty high.
Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.
I ran into him recently (tbf he was his usual affable self and spontaneously raised the animal welfare issue I asked him about 5 years ago) - looked much the same as always. Certainly up for another go, I'd think, but I also think there's no percentage in doing it before the election.
The tricky bit is that there will (if the Tories lose) be an immediate leadership election afterwards when someone else will win, and that someone won't want Boris breathing down their neck. So his optimal moment may be a year or so later when/if the new leader hasn't had much chance to mke an impact and the backwoods are restive.
If the Tories take the hammering that the polls suggest then there'll be sweet FA for Boris to return for. I think the Tories are a bit deluded at present. They're completely unprepared for how irrelevant they are about to become.
Look two or more years ahead. If Labour manage expectations badly, are forced into alliances that prove tricky (a better chance than people seem to think), allow a resurgence of the left/anti semitism, meet with some black swans, and/or generally screw up the Tories will become relevant quite soon. There is no alternative government in sight, and all politics is relative.
Boris will be 64 in 2028. I think he will stay out of parliamentary politics but it is not impossible. I don't think he will stand in 2024. But if, say, in 2026 Labour is sunk and a byelection comes up that he can't lose, that would be his way back. 10-15% chance of that sort of outcome.
I think the bigger issue for Labour is under promising and still under delivering - they are essentially arguing to be Tory lite who are competent at austerity, rather than the Tory party at the moment which is pretty hard right and also incompetent. If things don't get better (which I doubt they will considering SKS's current policy platform) I don't necessarily people heading straight to the Tories, though. I think RefUK and the Greens will see increases - as people on the left and right increasingly feel the Tories / Labour don't represent them / won't enact their preferred policies anyway.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
I do try to distinguish between discussing stuff with you and occasionally taking the piss. And there are genuine questions about the adequacy of arms supplies to Ukraine.
I think your thoughts about armistice are wrong, but I take them seriously, FWIW.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me
I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me
I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
I mean it's a bad case of Poe's law. Because your absurd sincere views and your absurd jokey views are still ideologically aligned, and you often cite people who sincerely believe things that you say you jokingly state - alongside the added social navigation issues of internet based conversation - it seems difficult to tell either way.
Nothing more certain to boost morale than an article behind a paywall.
Just google the headline Ukraine's long war and how to win it.
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
I did say it was “modest”
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
I don't think it is even that to be honest. It simply says that Ukraine is not overly concerned that attention is now on Gaza and are building a war economy to meet their own needs because they are ready for the long term.
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Interesting to consider what Russia’s war aims are and how it’s doing. I don’t subscribe to the “Russia is on the cusp of collapse” narrative but nor the simple Russia is winning which is borne of Western frustration and a taste for the dramatic.
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up - Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible - Absorb Belarus in due course - Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will - Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
We should just accept that the Baltics are gone and likewise Moldova. Who really cares anyway? @Cicero is boring now, he’d probably find it more fun under Putin then he could whine at even greater length, and it would serve him right for being a Remainer and relying on the EU
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, mehFr
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
France has nuclear weapons like us so I doubt even Putin would go that far even if he went for all out conquest
Don't encourage him HY. He's being a shock jock dick.
I'm fairly sure it's simpler than that and he was joking. Either that or he's completely changed his mind on international affairs to a highly unfashionable opinion without even the customary announcement of "I have changed my mind on x". Which seems unlikely.
Well yes, thanks, I was clearly joking
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
You do realise most folk are just having a little fun too, when they call you a Putinist popinjay, or whatever TSE's phrase was ?
I am fairly sure @TSE is joking, when he says this stuff
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
The thing is, if you seriously think that "Wokeness" is going to end the world, it is hard to know when satire ends or begins. When you're sincere beliefs are absurd, I find it hard to parse when you're using absurdity to joke.
Alternatively, you lack the intellectual acuity to differentiate between satire and sincerity, in someone like me
I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
Sometimes, it can be hard to distinguish a really good parody from the real thing. The Onion published a mock interview with JK Rowling, once, in which she explained that the whole purpose of writing Harry Potter books was to bring children into Satanism, and until the last couple of paragraphs, it did sound genuine.
Best of all, some US evangelical groups thought it was genuine.
He would have to either get on the list of Conservative candidates - or win as an independent. Either way, there would be huge tactical voting against him. If the mood by the election is to give the Tories a kicking, it will be doubly so for him. "Were you up for Boris?" is not what his ego wants to hear.
So next general election? Nah. If he has any ambitions of "doing a Churchill", it will have to wait.
He'll need to reinvent himself first. Partly because he will be bald by then.
As you say, he would further tarnish the brand and remind voters of stuff the party is desperately hoping we might forget, or at least overlook….
Bless, you genuinely think Boris Johnson would put the needs of others ahead of his own selfish desires?
As Mark says, he would need to get approved and selected first.
He remains catnip to the blue rinse brigade. I don't know the mechanics of the Conservative Party. Do the blue rinsers still oil the wheels of the party?
As an anti-Tory activist in a Blue Wall seat that used to be hyper-safe Tory heartland, I'd say blue-rinsers are close to extinct. The boom in high life-expectancy Boomers means most of our pensioners are opinionated graduates, who've jacked up property prices and unintentionally forced working-class Tories out , while the remaining elderly Tories are these days typically too busy with their bucket lists and looking after grandchildren to push leaflets out for an unpopular Tory - or even turn up at Tory Party meetings.
This probably doesn't stop the reduced Tory membership (mainly eccentric young right-wingers on the make) from exerting the control over local Party decisions once held by retired local businesspeople. But it does mean the elderly middle class vote LD, Green or centrist Labour - or simply don't vote.
The elderly middle class may vote LD or Green locally but they still largely vote Tory nationally. Over 65s rarely vote Labour either nationally or locally.
The Tory membership is still largely over 55 to 60, even if the Association executive and top councillors are often younger
It was really noticeable in mid-Beds that the Tory organisation barely existed. I saw just one Tory leaflet and two Tory canvassers in 3 days (lots of colleagues saw none), and they didn't even have cover at polling stations. We were baffled by it - did they have a secret plan? Was there going to be a flood of people on polling day? But in the event they just didn't show up. And that was a by-election - what will it be like at the GE?
Labour and LibDems didn't have that many local people either, but both parties flooded the seat with keen volunteers from all over the compass.
Comments
Ideally for them I think the objectives are / were:
- Overwhelm Ukraine militarily and carve it up
- Establish a ring of Russia-friendly managed democracies across as much of Europe as possible
- Absorb Belarus in due course
- Repeat the Ukraine annexation in Moldova, the Baltics and possibly Georgia when the time comes
They’ve not overwhelmed Ukraine and not yet managed that ring of friendly states, though Fico and Wilders take them one baby step closer.
So the backup plan is surely:
- Prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful western economy: essentially act as violent ex lover and stalker until you completely break their will
- Remain relevant, so the West can’t just ignore you, by fair means and (mostly) foul
They’re doing quite well on those plan B objectives. Weak states with a vendetta can carry on being an annoyance long after they cease to be a strategic threat.
Successful criminals know this very well. One of the professional activities which receives remarkably little attention is solicitors who only do privately paid, not legal aid, criminal work. Reflect for a moment on what they do, quite properly, all day.
Argentina also wiped out the lot, but that was after independence.
In general, though, the Conquistadors were encouraged, even expected, to intermarry, with Indian noblewomen, and their descendants, the criollos, formed the new ruling elite.
It’s a sad fact that after independence (as further North) the treatment of the Indians deteriorated, in most places.
He's not the one being interviewed.
- Build a strong local base of activists, and seize on any local issues that are important to the indigenous
- Carpet bomb residential areas with Focus leaflets and bar charts
- Build up a strong of successes at local authority level, ultimately getting control of the council
- Build on this local strength to target Westminster seats in general election and by-elections
- Repeat in neighbouring areas to establish regional strength
i am sentimentally attached to Georgia tho, we should defend Tbilisi from The Bear
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, meh
Also Germany, who gives a fuck. Likewise Poland
And France. Fuck France, with their stupid breads
Spain and Italy don’t count
Slavs begin at Calais, should be our motto
The Tory membership is still largely over 55 to 60, even if the Association executive and top councillors are often younger
A settlement where Russia concedes Crimea in exchange for the eastern oblasts along the current contact lines makes some sense to all sides. Except, Putin could not survive the loss of Crimea. So it cannot be proposed whilst he is still in office.
Your flippancy for human life and freedom may sound funny or smart to some, but really you're just a bore - a would be shock jock trying to shock a group of well to do politics nerds (no offence intended to anyone else, there, I picked a description that I feel also fits myself).
"New Zealand smoking ban: Health experts criticise new government's shock reversal - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67540190
Must tune into the BBC interview with the PM to hear the views of Laura Kuenssberg.
I mainly post on here to amuse myself; don’t we all?
Otherwise I would ask for payment
Of course, this could also be subject to legal challenge, but I think the government would have a fairly good case. Plus, I don't think the CDU (who brought the last case which the government just lost) would be keen on another challenge. People are now in the situation of not being sure if they will be able to afford household energy bills in the new year - not ideal in the run up to Christmas. People are assuming the money will be found, it would be a brave politician who tried to prolong the uncertainty.
On legislating to remove the debt brake (introduced in 2009 so not exactly set in stone) it would take a two thirds majority in parliament, so it won't happen. However, I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to reform it - some senior CDU politicians have said investment spending should be made exempt from the rules, so there's a chance it could be changed.
Switzerland also has had a constitional debt brake since 2001 (I believe).
How do you square that with your avowed communism? And anti-imperialism?
WC was a stalwart of the F-14 RAG at Oceana and though he had gone by the time I arrived he left a fine reputation. I think he had some vision issues that confined him to the mahogany bomber for the arse end of his career,
- Have a charismatic, highly-visible leader who voters know and can relate to.
Ed Who?
There have been a number of occasions when EU policy has been poleaxed by it - as an indication of how resolute and authoritative it is.
Life becomes more subtle !
As I say, I am sure that is true for all, I am just in an unusual situation where I can actually earn a crust spouting my gibberish, you must surely have felt the same during your career selling hats
If the hair is failing, will he go for The Edge-like beanie wearing in all circumstances, rather than the Fabricant solution?
QTWTAIN!
or just ophthalmic ?
"I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
Oddly I looked at those pictures yesterday and was startled by how old and worn Johnson looked. Presumably it depends on the picture and the angle.
I'm much more of a "this land is your land, this land is my land" kind of free movement advocate - in an ideal world (which I understand we do not live in and therefore when I discuss contemporary political issues do not always lean on as a position) no states and no borders at all.
Also the neoliberal consensus is changing somewhat on immigration - in the face of climate change lots of neoliberal politicians are getting increasingly authoritarian on immigration now so that their fortress, resource hoarding rhetoric of the future when we're faced with more scarcity has had a well placed foundation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide
I do hope that Ed D manages to project his voice a little further. He is a serious operator, with a personal backstory that makes him far better planted in the real worrld than either Sunak or Starmer.
The 2010 election projected the nice but lying Nick Clegg to a large audience - if Ed Davey can manage the same leap I expect Good Things.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/27/uk-school-pupils-using-ai-create-indecent-sexual-abuse-images-of-other-children
We will know we have reached AGI when our silicon overlords create their own porn.
I am now returning to it, but I am forced to take a lower dose of Wegovy (a similar drug)
The real revolution will come with Mounjaro, not only is it more effective (apparently) it is made by a different company so we will at last see price competition and greater mass production. In a year or two these drugs will be ubiquitous and much much cheaper
It will be like what happened to Viagra, but greatly accelerated
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/24863850/channel-5-schedule-nazi/
Channel 5 pulled The Year The Thames Flooded (1928, apparently) which was set to screen at 9pm.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/27/climate-crisis-energy-costs-fuel-uk-household-food-bill-rise
As the climate crisis gets worse, we will only see food inflation. Droughts and floods in large wheat, corn and rice producing areas mean that staples are becoming more precarious.
I thought they were fairly standard drugs for diabetes that have been slightly tweaked, and revealed as great for weight loss
I don’t think there was any incredible breakthrough?
(Something else which might get snookered by a Trump presidency, since it depends on US cooperation.)
Rapidus ramps as construction begins on 2nm wafer fab
Japanese foundry startup also shipping engineers off to US to study IBM chip tech
https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/01/rapidus_hiring_fab/
For me one of the main benefits was a reduction in desire for booze. I still enjoyed a drink, but my lust for an excess of it notably diminished
A possible thyroid cancer risk, and gut problems, are a small price to pay.
"Slightly tweaked" is not a term of art in the pharma industry.
I do sometimes get a LITTLE BIT tired of being called a “Putinist shill” or a “fucking appeaser” for pointing out that the war is perhaps not evolving entirely to Ukraine’s advantage, just at the moment, so I asked myself what would an actual “fucking appeaser and Putinist shill” actually write. And it would be something like that
Fuck Europe, let Putin have it all, who cares, defend our own island, etc
And also, if I may be allowed to be self-critical, saying a weight loss method works when you're doing it and doesn't when you're not is an insight of no special note.
For the rest of us, it's just being lazy.
In that case we will presumably soon see a flood of dodgy/fake/generic Ozempic hit the market, I doubt the recipe is a total secret
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/01/climate-crisis-us-food-system-five-crops
https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/drought-caused-wheat-canola-and-barley-production-to-plummet-in-2021-statcan-1.5694566
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/drought-threatens-us-wheat-production-despite-acreage-bump-2023-02-02/
These are trends beyond a bad year for fertiliser; the last article in fact details that acreage increases since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to try and make up for that shortfall are still not enough considering worsening weather conditions.
For any obese British person, the calculus is clear - if they or the NHS can afford it
Boris will be 64 in 2028. I think he will stay out of parliamentary politics but it is not impossible. I don't think he will stand in 2024. But if, say, in 2026 Labour is sunk and a byelection comes up that he can't lose, that would be his way back. 10-15% chance of that sort of outcome.
But of course in that case, there will be considerable risk in taking them.
Genuine generics will take much longer.
I am fairly sure several other PBers are really NOT joking, and it gets wearying
It was one of the reasons I took my last break from PB. You could not have a sensible debate about Ukraine’s allegedly faltering war effort without people going tediously mental. I don’t mind being called names (I can hardly object to that) I do mind when the site becomes useless as a place for debate
The tricky bit is that there will (if the Tories lose) be an immediate leadership election afterwards when someone else will win, and that someone won't want Boris breathing down their neck. So his optimal moment may be a year or so later when/if the new leader hasn't had much chance to mke an impact and the backwoods are restive.
And there are genuine questions about the adequacy of arms supplies to Ukraine.
I think your thoughts about armistice are wrong, but I take them seriously, FWIW.
I am pretty sure that is the explanation, I doubt you will understand it
Best of all, some US evangelical groups thought it was genuine.
Labour and LibDems didn't have that many local people either, but both parties flooded the seat with keen volunteers from all over the compass.