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Will Boris Johnson win a seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com
Will Boris Johnson win a seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com
This market from Ladbrokes on whether our last but one First Lord of the Treasury will win a seat at the next election and I understand why No is such the overwhelming favourite. Boris Johnson is earning serious money and may not want to give that up or have to declare it, nor does leading the Tories in opposition seem appealing to somebody as famously lazy and distracted as Boris Johnson.
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However there's nothing stopping the new Parliament from reimposing the suspension.
Surely not.
Liar, liar, pants on fire.
It would require a few hurdles to be jumped and would also set an unfortunate precedent.
Starmer being a lawyer means he's a man of probity so wouldn't do this.
So next general election? Nah. If he has any ambitions of "doing a Churchill", it will have to wait.
He'll need to reinvent himself first. Partly because he will be bald by then.
It's a mistake to make your enemy look like a victim. That would do exactly that (see also Farage and Natwest).
But I haven’t seen any great appetite locally for recalling Boris. It’s an outside chance of a LibDem gain - the District Council is LD-dominated - though that would probably require a Daveygasm.
Boris Johnson stands as a Reform candidate.
It would be like Churchill's Liberal years.
And refuse him a seat.
Details have emerged of the controversial deal allegedly struck between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and former Home Secretary Suella Braverman on immigration...
https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1729020142648988112
This is almost as stupid as the U.S. debt limit.
Germany chokes on its own austerity medicine
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-debt-austerity-climate-olaf-scholz-christian-lindner/
...Last week’s jaw-dropping constitutional court ruling that effectively rendered the core of the German government’s legislative agenda null and void has left the country in a collective shock. In order to circumvent Germany’s self-imposed deficit strictures, which give governments little room to spend more than they collect in taxes, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition relied on a network of “special funds” outside the main budget. Scholz was convinced the government could tap the money without violating the so-called debt brake.
The court, in no uncertain terms, disagreed. The ruling raises questions about the government’s ability to access a total of €869 billion parked outside the federal budget in 29 “special funds.” The court’s move forced the government to both freeze new spending and put approval of next year’s budget on hold.
A week after the decision, both the magnitude of the ruling and the reality that there’s no easy way out have become increasingly clear. Though Scholz has promised to come up with a new plan “very quickly,” few see a resolution without imposing austerity...
To my mind it singularly fails to say exactly how victory happens, or what it looks like. But it may improve the morale of less pessimistic PBers
https://www.ft.com/content/822e4e21-a631-496e-accd-1c9d6288573c
The amusing thing is that it is a verbal agreement, which Suella has then written down.
Less credible than a Met officer's notebook.
History never repeats exactly but look at the Soviets in Afghanistan 1979-1989 (which brought the Soviet empire down of course) or the US in Vietnam for pointers.
On balance, I'd say the Ukrainians are less likely to give up on Ukraine than the Russians in the long term.
What value would a peace agreement have if Trump were elected next year ?
As things stand, seats like Mid Beds and Selby aren't secure for the Conservatives. Swingback might help, but I wouldn't be sure about that.
And whilst there are voters whole love Boris, there are others, probably more, who hate him. (I suspect that one of the reasons for the low swing in the Uxbridge BE was the lack of a "Kick Johnson in the Johnson" factor.) BoJo standing for the Conservatives would be to invite a White Suit candidate. Are there any Conservative seats that could survive that?
And BoJo's image as a winner is partly derived from avoiding running when he risks being a loser. "I would have been brilliant if they hadn't stopped me standing" is much better for the brand and ego.
The United Arab Emirates planned to use its role as the host of UN climate talks as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals, the BBC has learned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331
Easier to legislate away the US debt limit. And that hasn't happened.
Can someone explain to me please?
Russia appears to be using ethnic cleansing and similar techniques in the areas it has gained in an effort to stop this: exporting Ukrainians and importing Russians - a bit like Stalin did to (e.g.) the Crimean tartars. But doubt even that would work.
(And again, it is notable how silent the likes of Owen Jones are over Russia's actions compared to Israel's.)
Germany has a special thing about deficit spending and inflation.
While I agree with everything our colleague has written here I would make one point. Johnson, plus family (or at least some of them) appeared at the anti-Semitism March yesterday. Why, I wonder, did he do that?
This probably doesn't stop the reduced Tory membership (mainly eccentric young right-wingers on the make) from exerting the control over local Party decisions once held by retired local businesspeople. But it does mean the elderly middle class vote LD, Green or centrist Labour - or simply don't vote.
But I agree, his odds seem too short.
See also, for example, Ukraine.
Also, he's too lazy and impulsive to be truly Machiavellian.
Primaries open in barely 6 weeks. Running out of time.
Are you by any chance referring to our own HYUFD?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67497299
The BBC looks at the social media battle for public opinion.
Thanks for noting that - I last shorted him around 8.
Realistically, though, there aren't many alternatives to Biden this late in the game, so either of those two would be decent long odds shouts. It's just that his are too short.
Could that happen again?
Well, I'm always amused by the way that LD seat and vote share seem uncorrelated, but I suspect that 2024 will see the LDs increase their vote share modestly, and get their seat numbers back in the 20s (and possibly even the high 20s). But I don't see them achieving anything like their 1997 result.
Russia will certainly never cede Crimea (nor, likely, the Donbas - dunno about the other oblasts)
Ukraine will always want revenge on Russia - and the return of Crimea and the Donbas
For Russia to win the Ukrainians have to completely give up and maybe the whole country has to collapse. Really really unlikely. For Ukraine to win the Putin regime has to fall AND a more peaceable replacement has to take over. Also highly unlikely
I don’t know how this square is circled. It’s probably impossible. My desire therefore is for large scale fighting to cease for now so at least thousands stop dying every week… then both sides will rearm and await round 2 but in that time Putin could die and then there might be a chance at a better peace for Kyiv
Yes I know I’ll go and stand in the Fucking Appeaser Corner
This means that - as it's an open primary - Democrats are free to vote for Republicans. This *might* make an upset rather more likely than would be expected.
1. The Norman conquest.
2. ...er?
Which means that Sherlock Holmes maxim applies: whatever remains, no matter how implausible, is the answer.
I guess his path to the nomination is:
Biden goes for the nomination, but has to pull out at some point in the first half of 2024 (probably due to health reasons). Harris is rejected by party bigwigs as being a voter repellant. And therefore they need to find someone else.
Ta da! Newsom.
Possible. Maybe even plausible. But I'd want decent odds.
The debt brake has been part of the constitution since 2009, it would need a two thirds majority in both houses of parliament to remove it.
"I was set upon by a group of immigrants in Dublin yesterday. They gave me a triple heart bypass and saved my life 🫀😊"
https://twitter.com/Davis27271307/status/1728741518322864188
Though some of the replies are... interesting...
The former corrupt MP for Ashfield & then Beaconsfield, Tim Smith, took £25k in cash from Mohammed Al-Fayed, and was not held to account for his criminality because he stepped down at an election.
Is that what we want in our legislature?
Do we tolerate abuse, corruption and criminality for the sake of ... what?
Where do we draw the line?
We all know that an entire phalanx of MPs got away with expenses fraud back before the expenses scandal, and very few were held to serious account.
* Quite a few of which were... errrr... British
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-meta-spokesperson-criminal-wanted-list/
I see a little debate already about 'can Ukraine win' 'what about a ceasefire', and so on.
There was a very good interview by Ward Carroll (Youtube military commentator) with Professor Justin Bronk (of RUSI), on the long term prospects in Ukraine.
Worth a listen imo. Especially the second half, including on the implications for other regions if Western countries are not able to cause defeat of a washed-up enemy on their own doorstep.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmMclP8dlI0
And the whole United States
Texas
Taiwan
Maybe you need to start with a T?
But there are many more examples of invading forces failing. And there are even more examples of invading forces succeeding militarily, but being unable to hold onto captured territories.
The ruling caste either has to assimilate (eg the Normans and Danes) or assimilate the conquered (eg China, Russia, USA) or wipe out the conquered (China, Russia and the USA again).
But, to be honest, I am not really sure it is worth the bother. Essentially it says that Ukraine is not giving up. And that is about it.
It feels more like boosterism than serious military analysis. Probably because serious military analysis would be more depressing for the pro-Ukrainian side
Also a contract may be formed by performance where all parties having acted as though there was a contract in place without there being either an oral or written contract.
If Biden does withdraw how much is worth to Newsom to be the new favourite in the betting markets. How much does it cost to keep his price artificially low on Betfair, given a lot of the volumes are traders going in and out anyway? Do the maths and the incentives are clear.
Also: Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the USA
Which is palpable rubbish on both parts. Firstly, they will be very concerned that some of the US ammunition got diverted to Israel. The horrific massacres at Avdiikva have mainly been caused by US supplied cluster munitions that we would not even be allowed to legally use and they have been using them up fast.
Secondly, that war economy is dependent upon others picking up the bills for funding the state (since the tax base has cratered). The current mess in Germany must be a risk to that.
Though Alaska is a more recent acquisition.
How would you categorise S America ?
While the population is majority European origin, the indigenous population wasn't almost completely wiped out as was the case in the north.
Phnom Penh might just be the most enticing city in the world right now. Full of life and fun yet not ruined with traffic and industry like so many Asian capitals. Brilliant nightlife and vibrant people, lovely bars and shady parks, and the food is superb - I am eating a magnificent lobster bisque this moment
Price? - $6
What's been largely overlooked here is that we already have half of a ceasefire because there are not even any attempts at large scale maneuvers. Both sides are just doing squad sized inventory actions where they blunder around stepping on landmines in turnip patches and half-hearted tube or rocket artillery exchanges.
If he did and won the leadership again however, Leader of the Opposition is much less pressure and responsibility than PM. He just has to attack the record of the government
It needs time though - I don't think he is going to sit on the back benches for years awaiting rehabilitation. It will be a by-election when he fancies it, if the Tories still look adrift in the 2028-32 parliament, popping in around 2030 just in time for the comeback, his sins forgotten or forgiven, would suit him just fine.
Goldwyn's comment was an aphorism, not legal advice - but she seems determined to prove it.
As I see it, the condition for Ukraine to "win" ie Russia to stop their war and go back home, is that Putin needs to believe that it is more advantageous / less disadvantageous for him / Russia (take your pick) to stop his war than continue it.
The way for that to happen is for Putin to believe Ukraine's allies to be committed to the defeat of Russia. At present he does not believe that.
The way for him to be convinces is for Ukraine's allies to commit to the long-term support of Ukraine, and put in place the measures to make necessary support for Ukraine happen.
At present Russia has reordered its economy on a war footing, Brussels is still shuffling paper around, and the UK Government cut our defence expenditure. And the USA is in a measure of limbo until its next Election.
All a 'ceasefire' will do is give Russia a pause to sort out its army, and come back with properly organised formations, rather than shovelling new recruits straight into the theatre.
All that can be remedied, but will it be?