POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
So what specifically do the Tories imagine will swing this around in time to call a GE on 2nd May? The tax "cut" is a tax hike - only a slightly shallower hike than previously announced. The economy is worse than they predicted earlier this year. Services and infrastructure aren't miraculously going to get fixed.
Why would voters in shitholes change their minds and decide to vote Tory again? Plan A is 240502, but why? The least worst scenario?
They needed to go much bigger than this to have a chance to change perceptions.
Sure, that is risky, doing a Truss and all that, but that was 2 years out this is 1 year out, gambling is all they have to try.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
Just seen the National Insurance announcement - really good to see that cut, a total 180 on Sunak's disgraceful increase of it. Well done Hunt!
Shame though to see tax thresholds are still frozen.
Long term though, cutting National Insurance absolutely should be the priority, ideally it should be abolished/merged into Income Tax, so that earned and unearned incomes are treated exactly the same.
PS is it just Employees NI that has been cut? What about Employers NIC?
No it should not be merged into income tax, it should be ringfenced to fund JSA and some of the state pension and NHS and social care as it was originally intended to do
Given NI raises approx £172 billion and the NHS budget is approx £168 billion, you're proposing *really* savage cuts in social care, pensions and JSA.
I didn't say it should only fund the NHS, obviously income tax would still fund it partly too but most OECD nations fund healthcare at least partly via insurance
Yes, but we don't. Its a tax, the fact it has a name insurance does not mean anything, its still a tax.
It isn't entirely, you can't claim JSA now without NI contributions for example, only UC if you are below the savings threshold.
The state pension also needs NI contributions or NI credits
Yes and since you get NI credits for being unemployed, how exactly is that an insurance?
And you can claim JSA with a history of NI credits too.
Its utterly meaningless and is a tax.
Then we should scrap NI credits being used for JSA given you can now only claim it for 6 months and there is UC, we should keep NI
Why should we?
Merge them, and have income tax used. Pay your taxes, get a contribution, don't and you don't.
Tax is supposed to fund non contributory spending, defence, the police, culture, schools etc, things everyone should be able to benefit from (plus UC, pensioners credit and healthcare where recipients have not contributed enough to benefit).
NI should fund JSA and state pensions and a more insurance based healthcare system
NI is a tax though.
If you want insurance, pay for a private policy. The state taxing us is taxes, and everyone should pay the same tax rates.
The top 10% of income earners already largely do, they have private health insurance, use private schools, have private pensions and rarely claim unemployment benefits or UC.
It is expanding contributory welfare and health to the remaining 80% (other than the bottom earning 10% who can't afford it)
There is no such thing as contributory welfare.
If you want to get people to start taking out private policies, then advocate that as a policy, in the meantime for any taxes everybody should pay the same rate of tax.
There is no need for, or excuse to have, National Insurance.
Yes there is, in the US for example you can't get any unemployment benefits at all without sufficient employment contributions, most other OECD nations have an element of contributions based benefits too.
Most nations also have an insurance based element for state healthcare not just private healthcare, except for the very poorest.
Other nations have insurance systems yes, we don't. So NI should be wrapped into income tax, since that's all it is, a tax.
If you want to introduce an insurance based system then introduce that as a new policy.
That is not NI though.
We do, that was what NI was set up to be, an insurance based fund for the unemployed and healthcare and later the state pension as well.
So - if this ringfenced fund is low (say, during a recession with lower contributions and/or increased inflation), we should cut pensions?
Just to be clear, because that would be an unavoidable outcome.
To be honest, under the HYUFD vision, we need to slash both NhS spending and pensions.
NICs cover about a half of healthcare plus old age pensions plus JSA.
So, we’d need to more or less halve all of these.
JSA becomes £34 per week for under-25s and £43 per week for over-25s. To maintain spending in healthcare, we’ll need to action his vision of more insurance funding from people for that, requiring an average of an extra £3200 per household across the UK. And Old Age Pensions would drop to about £5,300 per year.
But we’d free up a good 130-140 billion to spend on other things (but we must NOT spend it on healthcare or pensions to top those up, because otherwise we break that essential ringfencing that’s apparently so crucial).
You should propose it at the next Tory Conference. I’m sure it will be a great hit.
We can cut income tax too by the amount saved in NI contributions and as I said those without sufficient NICs would not get a state pension (only pension credit) and taxpayers would still fund those unable to pay enough NI to fund their healthcare or unable to go private (they would be the minority though)
And would those who have paid their NI contributions (paying enough to fund £5300 per year) also get pension credit to top up their pension to the amount it currently is?
Because if we somehow manage to spend the £300 billion+ on those various things with £172 billion in NICs and the remaining £130 billion+ funded by other means - it's not exactly a ringfenced fund, is it?
The level in it will always be taken to the needed level by general taxation. And, as money is fungible, it's not at all a ringfenced fund, given that the only issue is the amount of extra funding that's needed from general taxation.
It's taxation. Doesn't matter what you want to handwave about 1911, or what is supposed to be. Cut NICs and you cut tax paid by people and income to the Treasury. And, I'll note, that despite NI cuts, we don't see either a pension cut or a slashing of NHS budgets - which would have to occur if things did follow your fantasy of them.
In fact, you should now be calling loudly for a cut to pensions, if you want to be consistent, given that we've just seen a cut to NI.
No, they would get the state pension they contributed to.
We would also cut the NHS budget paid for by taxpayers to only those unable to afford insurance
You keep referring to this mythical pension they contributed to.
Great, abolish National Insurance for working age people today and pay pensions out of the pot that was contributed to.
Problem solved.
No pay state pensions out of the NI contributed to, scrap NI credits
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
But doesn't the second question contradict the first? If the parties might not be willing to work with the PVV neither might the voters for the various parties. There's a majority for right to centre parties, but is that the same as support for a right to centre government if it includes all those added up? The parties themselves may not think so, nor may their voters.
Of course when we have a government that thinks we should not be issuing any more oil exploration licenses it is hardly surprising that people have reservations about the investment needed to maintain an oil refinery. Where is the feedstock going to come from?
Grangemouth is nearly 8% of Scotland’s industrial base. And its future is going to be importing fuel from elsewhere with a much less well paid and considerably smaller workforce.
This news alone will drive Scotland into recession.
I really should have backed Con Maj in 2015 - I was doing some analysis on the movement of the polls, and they stood out a mile - everyone was so convinced of NOM that I chickened out
During the campaign there was quite a swing to the Cons and away from Lab, if you looked at the movement of each individual pollster
So what specifically do the Tories imagine will swing this around in time to call a GE on 2nd May? The tax "cut" is a tax hike - only a slightly shallower hike than previously announced. The economy is worse than they predicted earlier this year. Services and infrastructure aren't miraculously going to get fixed.
Why would voters in shitholes change their minds and decide to vote Tory again? Plan A is 240502, but why? The least worst scenario?
They needed to go much bigger than this to have a chance to change perceptions.
Sure, that is risky, doing a Truss and all that, but that was 2 years out this is 1 year out, gambling is all they have to try.
I really should have backed Con Maj in 2015 - I was doing some analysis on the movement of the polls, and they stood out a mile - everyone was so convinced of NOM that I chickened out
During the campaign there was quite a swing to the Cons and away from Lab, if you looked at the movement of each individual pollster
I think we were all doing the typical thing of assuming the next election would be like the last. The collapse of the Lib Dems in polling from early on in the parliament should also have been a flashing light for everyone but I remember struggling to believe it.
So is it a tax and spend election or a small boats election? Time for Sunak to make his mind up?
Hunt is leading the charge to move away from culture war bollocks to try and save lost Red Wall and back to pocket book stuff.
Not a good day for Labour.
Will it make any difference?
We await polling...
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 39s DAILY MAIL: Let’s hope it’s just the start #TomorrowsPapersToday
Was he watching a different Autumn Statement to me? Even during the speech it was already looking a bit meh and since then it’s been heading downhill rapidly.
Nah, Kinnock was a poor speaker overall. Passionate yes, but too wordy and not able to construct speeches that resonate down the years.
Contrast with JFK:
“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed. Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
The JFK one is pure marketing emotion; that para is entirely devoid of content.
On topic (to the header) I urge everyone who hasn’t yet, to read Ellroy’s magnificent American Tabloid.
Second Ellroy recommendation of the evening. I was commending The cold six thousand earlier.
I’m about a big an Ellroy fan as you’ll find, but honestly I found the Cold Six Thousand a bit of a slog - I think maybe not enough ‘magnificent bastard’ in it (Tedrow Sr. maybe), though it is still a fantastic book. Blood’s A Rover is better though.
I’m reading Perfidia at the moment and it’s perhaps as good as anything he’s done.
Nah, Kinnock was a poor speaker overall. Passionate yes, but too wordy and not able to construct speeches that resonate down the years.
Contrast with JFK:
“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed. Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
The JFK one is pure marketing emotion; that para is entirely devoid of content.
He is stroking an audience of kittens.
I respectfully disagree. It was that sentiment and confidence that resulted in the USA being in Vietnam amongst other things. Kennedy had some of the best speech writers of all time.
But Kinnock had at least 2 of the best speeches by a UK politician since the war. That’s pretty impressive.
The sooner we have this election the better, please. This lot need double-flushing with a full-bottle chaser of domestos to burn out the stench of incompetence and venality.
The "vehicle explosion" at Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls between U.S. and Canada border was an "attempted terrorist attack" with "a lot of explosives in the vehicle at the time." - Fox News
2 people in the car died, 1 border official injured. Apparently was driving out of US to Canada.
I really should have backed Con Maj in 2015 - I was doing some analysis on the movement of the polls, and they stood out a mile - everyone was so convinced of NOM that I chickened out
During the campaign there was quite a swing to the Cons and away from Lab, if you looked at the movement of each individual pollster
I think we were all doing the typical thing of assuming the next election would be like the last. The collapse of the Lib Dems in polling from early on in the parliament should also have been a flashing light for everyone but I remember struggling to believe it.
I was actually on that - I backed them to get less than 10% I think. Or maybe it was just UKIP to outpoll them, and also UKIP to get over 10%
All the talk of possible coalitions just made me lose my nerve, although I ploughed into about 15 seats that I thought UKIP might win, and they didn’t gain any!
On topic (to the header) I urge everyone who hasn’t yet, to read Ellroy’s magnificent American Tabloid.
Second Ellroy recommendation of the evening. I was commending The cold six thousand earlier.
I’m about a big an Ellroy fan as you’ll find, but honestly I found the Cold Six Thousand a bit of a slog - I think maybe not enough ‘magnificent bastard’ in it (Tedrow Sr. maybe), though it is still a fantastic book. Blood’s A Rover is better though.
I’m reading Perfidia at the moment and it’s perhaps as good as anything he’s done.
I found Perfidia a bit of a slog. I loved the Black Dahlia and LA Confidential.
The "vehicle explosion" at Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls between U.S. and Canada border was an "attempted terrorist attack" with "a lot of explosives in the vehicle at the time." - Fox News
2 people in the car died, 1 border official injured. Apparently was driving out of US to Canada.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
I'm a huge fan of Jimmy Carr, I've often been compared to him, we have a similar sense of humour.
I can't stand Jimmy Carr. He's smug and smarmy, his humour is often unpleasant and unkind as well as empty and laboured, he's not actually very funny, and he's a tax dodger to boot. I think people are right to compare him to Bob Monkhouse, but the latter had much better people writing his jokes for him. People like Stewart Lee or Peter Kay are far better comedians. Even Michael Macintyre is a far better comedian than Jimmy Carr. Jack Whitehall is probably the only comedian worse than Jimmy Carr.
Congratulations, you have officially posted the wrongest thing in the history of PB.
Carr is dismally dire. His schtick has always been disinterring a 1970s jokebook and going "Oooh I'm not supposed to say that but you laughed a little bit, oooh". Which isn't offensive. Just incredibly lazy and dull - and has been since the early 2000s when he got big, and he's doing the same jokes now. It's the same milieu Russell Brand slithered out of, doing rape and blowjob jokes then giggling that he'd been a terribly naughty Victorian fop and it was all ironic.
Compare it to someone like Jerry Sadowitz - whose offensiveness has a black heart and soul. Or even Ricky Gervais, who irritating as he can be, has something sparky to say with his humour about the world and comedy. It's just streets ahead of the likes of Carr or Frankie Boyle, who do it by numbers, even if they mechanically say something dreadful about the disabled or the Queen that's designed to shock a bit to go through those numbers.
I was never a great Ricky Gervais fan, but Supernature was absolutely outstanding.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
But he's no Suella Braverman. He has that continential je ne sais quoi.
On topic (to the header) I urge everyone who hasn’t yet, to read Ellroy’s magnificent American Tabloid.
Second Ellroy recommendation of the evening. I was commending The cold six thousand earlier.
I’m about a big an Ellroy fan as you’ll find, but honestly I found the Cold Six Thousand a bit of a slog - I think maybe not enough ‘magnificent bastard’ in it (Tedrow Sr. maybe), though it is still a fantastic book. Blood’s A Rover is better though.
I’m reading Perfidia at the moment and it’s perhaps as good as anything he’s done.
I found Perfidia a bit of a slog. I loved the Black Dahlia and LA Confidential.
I’ve been reading it slowly, actively making myself do so (I’m so used to skimming and scanning) -it’s necessary for a writer who can pack so much into a sentence - and have found it very immersive and compelling.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
Nah, Kinnock was a poor speaker overall. Passionate yes, but too wordy and not able to construct speeches that resonate down the years.
Contrast with JFK:
“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed. Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
The JFK one is pure marketing emotion; that para is entirely devoid of content.
He is stroking an audience of kittens.
I respectfully disagree. It was that sentiment and confidence that resulted in the USA being in Vietnam amongst other things. Kennedy had some of the best speech writers of all time.
But Kinnock had at least 2 of the best speeches by a UK politician since the war. That’s pretty impressive.
I think the difference between reading that paragraph, and listening to the speech .. is fascinating.
I think the other striking point for me is the difference between US rhetoric, and US practice.
Just having listened again to the Letter from America I linked earlier, I think the most pointed nugget is JFK as the first "TV President" - present in a more intimate way than any predecessor.
Equally interesting was his note of the way JFK was stymied by 'a dozen Committee Chairs in Congress', which sounds very familiar.
Of course when we have a government that thinks we should not be issuing any more oil exploration licenses it is hardly surprising that people have reservations about the investment needed to maintain an oil refinery. Where is the feedstock going to come from?
Grangemouth is nearly 8% of Scotland’s industrial base. And its future is going to be importing fuel from elsewhere with a much less well paid and considerably smaller workforce.
This news alone will drive Scotland into recession.
Nah, Kinnock was a poor speaker overall. Passionate yes, but too wordy and not able to construct speeches that resonate down the years.
Contrast with JFK:
“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed. Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
The JFK one is pure marketing emotion; that para is entirely devoid of content.
He is stroking an audience of kittens.
I respectfully disagree. It was that sentiment and confidence that resulted in the USA being in Vietnam amongst other things. Kennedy had some of the best speech writers of all time.
But Kinnock had at least 2 of the best speeches by a UK politician since the war. That’s pretty impressive.
I think the difference between reading that paragraph, and listening to the speech .. is fascinating.
I think the other striking point for me is the difference between US rhetoric, and US practice.
Just having listened again to the Letter from America I linked earlier, I think the most pointed nugget is JFK as the first "TV President" - present in a more intimate way than any predecessor.
Equally interesting was his note of the way JFK was stymied by 'a dozen Committee Chairs in Congress', which sounds very familiar.
Did we have a first Radio Prime Minister?
Technically, Neville Chamberlain. Not under the best of circs, admittedly. ☹️
In the last few minutes, Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the National Security Council of Israel, has said Israeli hostages will not be released by Hamas before Friday. An Israeli government source has told the BBC that the ceasefire has also been delayed.
The "vehicle explosion" at Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls between U.S. and Canada border was an "attempted terrorist attack" with "a lot of explosives in the vehicle at the time." - Fox News
2 people in the car died, 1 border official injured. Apparently was driving out of US to Canada.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
Nah, Kinnock was a poor speaker overall. Passionate yes, but too wordy and not able to construct speeches that resonate down the years.
Contrast with JFK:
“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed. Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
The JFK one is pure marketing emotion; that para is entirely devoid of content.
He is stroking an audience of kittens.
I respectfully disagree. It was that sentiment and confidence that resulted in the USA being in Vietnam amongst other things. Kennedy had some of the best speech writers of all time.
But Kinnock had at least 2 of the best speeches by a UK politician since the war. That’s pretty impressive.
I think the difference between reading that paragraph, and listening to the speech .. is fascinating.
I think the other striking point for me is the difference between US rhetoric, and US practice.
Just having listened again to the Letter from America I linked earlier, I think the most pointed nugget is JFK as the first "TV President" - present in a more intimate way than any predecessor.
Equally interesting was his note of the way JFK was stymied by 'a dozen Committee Chairs in Congress', which sounds very familiar.
Did we have a first Radio Prime Minister?
JFK's election was also quite contrived in many ways, to put it politely. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00w8cjq is worth digging into if you're not familiar with the shenanigans.
As for radio PM's - I think Churchill's vague and drunken radio ramblings, vs the re-recorded Great Speeches get a mention.
In the last few minutes, Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the National Security Council of Israel, has said Israeli hostages will not be released by Hamas before Friday. An Israeli government source has told the BBC that the ceasefire has also been delayed.
Delayed (or sabotaged?) by Netanyahu saying he'd kill the people he was negotiating with?
Hunt is a perfectly reasonable technocrat. But competently managed declined is the last thing people want at the moment.
The problem is until productivity issue is solved, we are on the path to a death spiral of higher taxes still not covering higher public spending. The growth predictions for every year for next what 4-5 years were all sub 2%, which is really the level you need to be able to actually make progress above and beyond the drag of aging society, inflation etc etc etc.
Labour positioning themselves as for lower taxes isn't going to survive impact with state of the economy, the state of public services and their DNA for finding things that always need further funding.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
This is the best outcome, its tokenism as much as the halfwits who stuck up tricolores or 'Pray for Paris' icons on their social media pages after some nutcase Islamists went out on a killing spree in France.
Personally I think the test is a bit too simple. I take the view that Lee Harvey Oswald most probably acted alone. But, various agencies screwed up and hid those screw ups. And perhaps were not upset by what Jack Ruby did.
Perhaps understandable, just imagine the arse covering that would occur if a the UK monarch met the wrong end of a bullet. But, to what extent are we talking conspiracy here?
Hunt has never really stirred any strong emotions in me. He comes across reasonably well on TV, and lord knows I'm a target for appealing to bland technocrats, but for all the derision the likes of Boris and Corbyn (deservedly) get, leaders do often need to be able to inspire a bit, have a little oomph.
Obviously there have been days when the boring and vague person wins a GE, but I suspect it is not this day.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
This is the best outcome, its tokenism as much as the halfwits who stuck up tricolores or 'Pray for Paris' icons on their social media pages after some nutcase Islamists went out on a killing spree in France.
Well some of said this from the very start of when they were doing it and that there would come a cause that was a tricky situation. It is why constantly inserting politics into sport is a dangerous path to follow.
Found it to be a more of a minefield than they had anticipated I see.
If only more organisations and corporate entities could follow and not try to leap onto current events - sure, 90% of the time it'll be innocuous or beneficial PR, but then there's the other 10% making it not worth it.
Hunt has never really stirred any strong emotions in me. He comes across reasonably well on TV, and lord knows I'm a target for appealing to bland technocrats, but for all the derision the likes of Boris and Corbyn (deservedly) get, leaders do often need to be able to inspire a bit, have a little oomph.
Obviously there have been days when the boring and vague person wins a GE, but I suspect it is not this day.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
Is he still as pro-Putin as he used to be?
Does anyone ever really resile from a pro-putin position? Once you've gone down that road what would draw you back?
Hunt is a perfectly reasonable technocrat. But competently managed declined is the last thing people want at the moment.
The problem is until productivity issue is solved, we are on the path to a death spiral of higher taxes still not covering higher public spending. The growth predictions for every year for next what 4-5 years were all sub 2%, which is really the level you need to be able to actually make progress above and beyond the drag of aging society, inflation etc etc etc.
Labour positioning themselves as for lower taxes isn't going to survive impact with state of the economy, the state of public services and their DNA for finding things that always need further funding.
Labour can borrow a little bit more. Note how Reeves is pegging herself to Tory tax rates and Tory ‘day to day’ spending. Leaves her wiggle room to invest.
Hunt has never really stirred any strong emotions in me. He comes across reasonably well on TV, and lord knows I'm a target for appealing to bland technocrats, but for all the derision the likes of Boris and Corbyn (deservedly) get, leaders do often need to be able to inspire a bit, have a little oomph.
Obviously there have been days when the boring and vague person wins a GE, but I suspect it is not this day.
I suspect it is!
Granted when it's two such choices one of them will definitely win.
However, I meant for the Tories going bold may not work but probably has a better chance right now.
The Amazon listing for Epstein's "Legend" has a quite long description of the evidence against Oswald, written, it appears, by Epstein himself: Sample: "He returned to the USA in 6/62, joined by his Russian wife Marina, settling in Dallas. He then purchased a rifle with telescopic sights & a revolver from a mail-order house under a false name. He lectured a few friends on the need for violent action rather than mere words. His particular focus was extreme conservative Gen. Edwin A. Walker, who'd been active in Dallas organizing anti-Castro guerrillas. For example, he suggested to a German geologist, Volkmar Schmidt that Walker should be treated like a "murderer at large". He didn't stop at fierce words. For weeks, he stalked Walker's movements, photographing his residence from several angles. He then had his wife photograph him, dressed entirely in black, with a revolver strapped on a hip holster, a sniper's rifle in his right hand & two newspapers, The Worker & The Militant, in his left. He made 3 copies--one of which he inscribed, dated "5-IV-63" & sent to a Dallas acquaintance, George De Mohrenschildt. He then left with his rifle wrapped in a raincoat, telling Marina he was off to "target practice", but his target, Walker, was out of town that night. He returned to Walker's home 5 nights later & fired a shot, missing by inches, demonstrating his will to kill." https://www.amazon.com/Legend-Secret-World-Harvey-Oswald/dp/0070195390
Hunt is a perfectly reasonable technocrat. But competently managed declined is the last thing people want at the moment.
The problem is until productivity issue is solved, we are on the path to a death spiral of higher taxes still not covering higher public spending. The growth predictions for every year for next what 4-5 years were all sub 2%, which is really the level you need to be able to actually make progress above and beyond the drag of aging society, inflation etc etc etc.
Labour positioning themselves as for lower taxes isn't going to survive impact with state of the economy, the state of public services and their DNA for finding things that always need further funding.
Labour can borrow a little bit more. Note how Reeves is pegging herself to Tory tax rates and Tory ‘day to day’ spending. Leaves her wiggle room to invest.
If I was pegging myself I daresay I’d want a little wiggle room too.
Hunt is a perfectly reasonable technocrat. But competently managed declined is the last thing people want at the moment.
The problem is until productivity issue is solved, we are on the path to a death spiral of higher taxes still not covering higher public spending. The growth predictions for every year for next what 4-5 years were all sub 2%, which is really the level you need to be able to actually make progress above and beyond the drag of aging society, inflation etc etc etc.
Labour positioning themselves as for lower taxes isn't going to survive impact with state of the economy, the state of public services and their DNA for finding things that always need further funding.
Labour can borrow a little bit more. Note how Reeves is pegging herself to Tory tax rates and Tory ‘day to day’ spending. Leaves her wiggle room to invest.
If I was pegging myself I daresay I’d want a little wiggle room too.
On topic (to the header) I urge everyone who hasn’t yet, to read Ellroy’s magnificent American Tabloid.
Second Ellroy recommendation of the evening. I was commending The cold six thousand earlier.
I’m about a big an Ellroy fan as you’ll find, but honestly I found the Cold Six Thousand a bit of a slog - I think maybe not enough ‘magnificent bastard’ in it (Tedrow Sr. maybe), though it is still a fantastic book. Blood’s A Rover is better though.
I’m reading Perfidia at the moment and it’s perhaps as good as anything he’s done.
I found Perfidia a bit of a slog. I loved the Black Dahlia and LA Confidential.
I’ve been reading it slowly, actively making myself do so (I’m so used to skimming and scanning) -it’s necessary for a writer who can pack so much into a sentence - and have found it very immersive and compelling.
Helps that Dudley Smith is in it too.
I think James Cromwell absolutely owns the film of LA Confidential.
I blew away an American friend this evening by pointing out that the family of John Hinckley Jnr (who shot Reagan) had donated to George Bush Snr's campaign in 1980. He of course was also in Dallas on 22 November 1963. And was played by.... James Cromwell in Oliver Stone's film W.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
I would be very interested to see the details of this 'review' of theirs. I mean, we can all probably guess why they've decided this, but how to explain it?
Simon Clarke on Peston says he thinks the election will be in May
I hereby agree with him.
Going in May will allow Rishi to demonstrate that he is in control of the situation and not desperately hanging on to the end
The March 2024 Budget will include a large increase in the personal allowance to £15,000pa maybe £18,000pa to 'encourage' people to vote CON
Maybe the IHT cut will reappear in the manifesto too...
Unlikely. The cuts today used up a lot of the fiscal headroom Hunt had. And whilst it was probably phoney, it was mathematically real (if that makes sense). Another round of giveaways would be back in Truss-Kwateng levels of piss-taking.
I think he still has to find the money to extend the fuel duty freeze; he has to do that, or the Sun will come and string him up.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
I would be very interested to see the details of this 'review' of theirs. I mean, we can all probably guess why they've decided this, but how to explain it?
Sure it didn't help that two senior executives at the FA have been revealed to be less than keen on the Jews and Israel.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
Is he still as pro-Putin as he used to be?
Does anyone ever really resile from a pro-putin position? Once you've gone down that road what would draw you back?
To her credit Meloni did shift having previously seen him as a standard bearer of conservative values.
What a mess they have got themselves in. All they had to do was take the John Mann suggestion of lighting it up on Thursday if they wanted to avoid what was the obviously end conclusion to this.
I would be very interested to see the details of this 'review' of theirs. I mean, we can all probably guess why they've decided this, but how to explain it?
Sure it didn't help that two senior executives at the FA have been revealed to be less than keen on the Jews and Israel.
It's a sad state we find ourselves in when a connection is drawn to that, which I am sure is simply a complete coincidence.
Simon Clarke on Peston says he thinks the election will be in May
I hereby agree with him.
Going in May will allow Rishi to demonstrate that he is in control of the situation and not desperately hanging on to the end
The March 2024 Budget will include a large increase in the personal allowance to £15,000pa maybe £18,000pa to 'encourage' people to vote CON
Maybe the IHT cut will reappear in the manifesto too...
Unlikely. The cuts today used up a lot of the fiscal headroom Hunt had. And whilst it was probably phoney, it was mathematically real (if that makes sense). Another round of giveaways would be back in Truss-Kwateng levels of piss-taking.
I think he still has to find the money to extend the fuel duty freeze; he has to do that, or the Sun will come and string him up.
Everything else will be an aspiration.
Getting rid of the fuel duty freeze will be as hard to do as getting rid of the Triple Lock
Netanyahu: I instructed the Mossad to eliminate the leaders of Hamas wherever they are
Unsurprising. I expect Mossad's extrajudicial overseas assassination squads will be condemned like the Russian tourists in Salisbury. Or do I?
No. Very different targets and circumstances.
This is a very good move in the long term although not sure it will be very helpful when trying to negotiate hostage releases in the short term.
And if they kill a UK resident or national?
Depends on if that person was a Hamas official and also on whether they get caught.
Clearly no matter whther the target was the worst terrorist in the Hamas pantheon, killing him on British soil would be illegal under our laws but that doesn't make it wrong. If they got caught doing it they would expect to end up in jail and Israel would be embarrassed but there is a difference between legality and whther something is morally right.
If they killed an innocent bystander or family member that would be a different matter.
But to be honest if we are stupid enough to be harbouring senior Hamas leaders then we have little cause for complaint if the Israelis decide to take action on our soil.
POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope · 21m 🚨 BREAKING: Far-right leader Geert Wilders has become the shock winner of the Dutch election, according to an exit poll.
Get ready to sedate Leon.
Big week for the populist hard libertarian right with Milei and Wilders topping the polls
If the exit poll is right, there's a majority for a right-to-centre-right government. The question is whether the more centre-right parties would be willing to work with the PVV. Otherwise, it is likely to be VVD-led perhaps pulling in some of the liberal and left parties.
I think if Wilders had only topped the poll narrowly they might have tried to shut him out. But he's won by quite a significant margin, unless the exit poll is wrong.
He toned down his rhetoric just before the election but is a very nasty individual. He won’t be PM as none of the major parties would support him for that . I doubt he would take a smaller role and will just spend the next years bleating about the unfairness and playing the martyr .
Is he still as pro-Putin as he used to be?
Does anyone ever really resile from a pro-putin position? Once you've gone down that road what would draw you back?
To her credit Meloni did shift having previously seen him as a standard bearer of conservative values.
The difference between someone who genuinely has values - even if many dislike those values - and a bunch of reactionary, power grabbing shills? The former can take a stand and even change their minds.
Personally I think the test is a bit too simple. I take the view that Lee Harvey Oswald most probably acted alone. But, various agencies screwed up and hid those screw ups. And perhaps were not upset by what Jack Ruby did.
Perhaps understandable, just imagine the arse covering that would occur if a the UK monarch met the wrong end of a bullet. But, to what extent are we talking conspiracy here?
Not sure where this May idea is coming from . Unless the Tories believe that their poll numbers are going to improve dramatically by then .
I guess there's the idea if the budget has some goodies there could be a brief surge to take advantage of, but it sounds improbable to me.
I certainly don't have the data, but has a budget bounce really been a thing? How would it sustain itself for several months during a GE campaign without unravelling? The fundamentals haven't changed.
A play for time is not much of a plan, but provides hope at least.
Not sure where this May idea is coming from . Unless the Tories believe that their poll numbers are going to improve dramatically by then .
Or maybe it’s only getting worse? The polls have been trending remorselessly downwards. I don’t think another year will render them a better chance of victory.
As I’ve said on here before, being able to call the election is a significant strategic advantage that the government holds, and they don’t have much else going for them - and it’s an advantage that gets increasingly less significant the closer you get to full term. At least they’d be taking the initiative.
Comments
Sure, that is risky, doing a Truss and all that, but that was 2 years out this is 1 year out, gambling is all they have to try.
Tom is definitely on a political journey.
Of course when we have a government that thinks we should not be issuing any more oil exploration licenses it is hardly surprising that people have reservations about the investment needed to maintain an oil refinery. Where is the feedstock going to come from?
Grangemouth is nearly 8% of Scotland’s industrial base. And its future is going to be importing fuel from elsewhere with a much less well paid and considerably smaller workforce.
This news alone will drive Scotland into recession.
During the campaign there was quite a swing to the Cons and away from Lab, if you looked at the movement of each individual pollster
Hunt is leading the charge to move away from culture war bollocks to try and save lost Red Wall and back to pocket book stuff.
Not a good day for Labour.
Will it make any difference?
We await polling...
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
39s
DAILY MAIL: Let’s hope it’s just the start #TomorrowsPapersToday
IMO worst odds of the year.
He is stroking an audience of kittens.
I’m reading Perfidia at the moment and it’s perhaps as good as anything he’s done.
Do I feel the lack of enthusiasm for the Autumn Statement?
But if we have the GE in May at least it doesn't clash with USA 24 and means we can focus on one big event on here.
Also doesn't clash with Euro 24 👍
But Kinnock had at least 2 of the best speeches by a UK politician since the war. That’s pretty impressive.
https://news.sky.com/story/rainbow-bridge-incident-in-niagara-falls-authorities-closely-monitoring-situation-13013759
It looks like police have ruled out a bomb and terrorism. So much for Fox News.
2% CPI??
England win Euro 2024???
Watford have gone 6 games unbeaten so anything is possible! 👍
All the talk of possible coalitions just made me lose my nerve, although I ploughed into about 15 seats that I thought UKIP might win, and they didn’t gain any!
I loved the Black Dahlia and LA Confidential.
Just how fast were they going!
Helps that Dudley Smith is in it too.
Given the baseline (2020 postponed to 2021), even a good performance for the Blue Team will look bad.
As for the Autumn Statement headlines, even the rapture is distinctly modified, as WS Gilbert put it.
https://www.amazon.com/Case-Closed-Harvey-Oswald-Assassination/dp/1400034620
(Those interested in Lee Harvey Oswald might want to read Edward Jay Epstein's "Legend", as well.)
Possibly next for TSE: Was the Apollo 11 moon landing faked?
I think the other striking point for me is the difference between US rhetoric, and US practice.
Just having listened again to the Letter from America I linked earlier, I think the most pointed nugget is JFK as the first "TV President" - present in a more intimate way than any predecessor.
Equally interesting was his note of the way JFK was stymied by 'a dozen Committee Chairs in Congress', which sounds very familiar.
Did we have a first Radio Prime Minister?
https://www.trouw.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamerverkiezingen-2023-volg-hier-de-uitslagen~be91966c/
Blindly.
https://x.com/lrbbookshop/status/1727328961938837842?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/theathleticfc/status/1727462210409201720?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
As for radio PM's - I think Churchill's vague and drunken radio ramblings, vs the re-recorded Great Speeches get a mention.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/981283a2-8947-11ee-b411-d7778fd6fa75?shareToken=556e227bf1acb4adcb211ebd31002326
What is cognitive ability?
The problem is until productivity issue is solved, we are on the path to a death spiral of higher taxes still not covering higher public spending. The growth predictions for every year for next what 4-5 years were all sub 2%, which is really the level you need to be able to actually make progress above and beyond the drag of aging society, inflation etc etc etc.
Labour positioning themselves as for lower taxes isn't going to survive impact with state of the economy, the state of public services and their DNA for finding things that always need further funding.
Sunak and Truss is an exception, admittedly, but the circumstances were pretty unique.
Going in May will allow Rishi to demonstrate that he is in control of the situation and not desperately hanging on to the end
The March 2024 Budget will include a large increase in the personal allowance to £15,000pa maybe £18,000pa to 'encourage' people to vote CON
Maybe the IHT cut will reappear in the manifesto too...
Personally I think the test is a bit too simple. I take the view that Lee Harvey Oswald most probably acted alone. But, various agencies screwed up and hid those screw ups. And perhaps were not upset by what Jack Ruby did.
Perhaps understandable, just imagine the arse covering that would occur if a the UK monarch met the wrong end of a bullet. But, to what extent are we talking conspiracy here?
Obviously there have been days when the boring and vague person wins a GE, but I suspect it is not this day.
If only more organisations and corporate entities could follow and not try to leap onto current events - sure, 90% of the time it'll be innocuous or beneficial PR, but then there's the other 10% making it not worth it.
However, I meant for the Tories going bold may not work but probably has a better chance right now.
Sample: "He returned to the USA in 6/62, joined by his Russian wife Marina, settling in Dallas. He then purchased a rifle with telescopic sights & a revolver from a mail-order house under a false name. He lectured a few friends on the need for violent action rather than mere words. His particular focus was extreme conservative Gen. Edwin A. Walker, who'd been active in Dallas organizing anti-Castro guerrillas. For example, he suggested to a German geologist, Volkmar Schmidt that Walker should be treated like a "murderer at large". He didn't stop at fierce words. For weeks, he stalked Walker's movements, photographing his residence from several angles. He then had his wife photograph him, dressed entirely in black, with a revolver strapped on a hip holster, a sniper's rifle in his right hand & two newspapers, The Worker & The Militant, in his left. He made 3 copies--one of which he inscribed, dated "5-IV-63" & sent to a Dallas acquaintance, George De Mohrenschildt. He then left with his rifle wrapped in a raincoat, telling Marina he was off to "target practice", but his target, Walker, was out of town that night. He returned to Walker's home 5 nights later & fired a shot, missing by inches, demonstrating his will to kill."
https://www.amazon.com/Legend-Secret-World-Harvey-Oswald/dp/0070195390
I blew away an American friend this evening by pointing out that the family of John Hinckley Jnr (who shot Reagan) had donated to George Bush Snr's campaign in 1980. He of course was also in Dallas on 22 November 1963. And was played by.... James Cromwell in Oliver Stone's film W.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/801841527857278977?t=OUcSgYKFfDGUmGRaZ6tCmg&s=19
I think he still has to find the money to extend the fuel duty freeze; he has to do that, or the Sun will come and string him up.
Everything else will be an aspiration.
Clearly no matter whther the target was the worst terrorist in the Hamas pantheon, killing him on British soil would be illegal under our laws but that doesn't make it wrong. If they got caught doing it they would expect to end up in jail and Israel would be embarrassed but there is a difference between legality and whther something is morally right.
If they killed an innocent bystander or family member that would be a different matter.
But to be honest if we are stupid enough to be harbouring senior Hamas leaders then we have little cause for complaint if the Israelis decide to take action on our soil.
Today's GOP also take note.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/jfk-assassination-documents-national-archives.html
I certainly don't have the data, but has a budget bounce really been a thing? How would it sustain itself for several months during a GE campaign without unravelling? The fundamentals haven't changed.
A play for time is not much of a plan, but provides hope at least.
Changpeng Zhao may face jail time, while his firm pays a $4.3bn fine"
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/11/22/another-crypto-boss-falls
As I’ve said on here before, being able to call the election is a significant strategic advantage that the government holds, and they don’t have much else going for them - and it’s an advantage that gets increasingly less significant the closer you get to full term. At least they’d be taking the initiative.