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The SNP vs The Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778

    Is it a situation where attempting to shrink the headline size of the state has paradoxically made things worse?

    (The argument against universal benefits always used to be that it was a waste to take money from people and then return it- cheaper and more efficient to just let them keep it in the first place. Now that transferring money is costs next to nothing, that might not be the case any more. And means testing, as well as being expensive, is the oldest andbiggest example of the sort of cliff edges that everyone sane thinks we should be getting out of the tax system.)
    It’s not the money transfer that is wasteful but percolating it through our government bureaucracy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Massa has conceded - this must be the first election I've ever seen where we've had a concession before any results are officially released.

    Very efficient of him, though makes him a bit of a spoilsport.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324
    kle4 said:

    I applaud his use of props, so long as he has been seen actually using it, otherwise that's just lame.
    Chain brake is on...
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    edited November 2023
    kle4 said:

    Very efficient of him, though makes him a bit of a spoilsport.
    Suggests that it isn't close, would expect Milei to have 51% minimum, 80% is counted now - Massa emphasised the vote was clear and transparent.

    I cashed out for a 50% profit which isn't too bad.

    Thinking about the wider situation, not sure to what extent Milei will have a majority in Congress for his agenda.

    All things considered, a pretty strong result for Massa (even if he loses by 10 points or more), given that inflation is 143% and he is the economy minister.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    There ought to be a term for PB Israel ultras who are more ultra than the Israelis themselves.

    There is a term. Genocide supporters but I only put a handful of PB Zionist Ultras and SKS into that category.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Chain brake is on...
    I'm not unreasonable, he can do that most of the time, but I expect to see at least a few things sawn though as part of his victory rally else I shall be most disappointed.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,651

    There ought to be a term for PB Israel ultras who are more ultra than the Israelis themselves.

    There is a term. Genocide supporters but I only put a handful of PB Zionist Ultras and SKS into that category.

    Are you ok, hon?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    It's an outlier :lol:
    Unlike the 30 point lead last week!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    ohnotnow said:

    Are you ok, hon?
    Yes thanks hope you are too
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    ICYMI Jewish ex-service personnel laid a Star of David wreath at the Cenotaph earlier today.

    Service at Cenotaph is held to remember Jewish veterans who fought Nazi fascism in WWII and mark 80th anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12768025/Service-Cenotaph-Jewish-veterans-Nazi-WWII-anniversary-Warsaw-Ghetto-uprising.html

    It is ironic that the Israelis have now killed more Gazan civilians than the Nazis did in thw Warsaw Ghetto break out. It really is time to stop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Roger said:

    It is ironic that the Israelis have now killed more Gazan civilians than the Nazis did in thw Warsaw Ghetto break out. It really is time to stop.
    SKS says not Rog.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,853
    edited November 2023
    Milei is beating the cursed ratio by quite a lot. Argentinian news is showing 55.9% to 44.1%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Tom Phillips
    @tomphillipsin

    “Everyone’s tired. There’s a sort of suicidal temptation. It’s not that they think Milei will win and everything will improve. It’s that they want everything to go to hell. It’s about scorching the earth and starting from scratch.”

    https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1713171369456808074
  • Official results finally released (not until 88% counted!)

    Milei 55.9%

    Massa 44.1%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2023
    I was idly checking wikipedia to see if Cameron had selected a peerage title yet (he has - Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton), and I could not help but notice a particular and peculiar edit in the final line of the intro section.

    Previously it said

    Historians and scholars rank Cameron as an average to below-average prime minister.

    Now it says

    In historical rankings of prime ministers of the United Kingdom, academics and journalists have ranked Cameron in the fourth and third quintiles, respectively.

    It's the little differences that matter sometimes. A curious reframing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cameron
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    It's an outlier :lol:
    Starmer committing Hara- Kiri in his defense of Israeli brutality. It wasn't as though his party didn't warn him. If he wants to be PM he has to be less dictatorial.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    viewcode said:

    I am actually thinking of going, if only for five minutes, just to show willing. But I am fucked if I am registering. What the hell is the point of that?
    To have some idea about numbers, perhaps? I have a registration no. but no idea if I need to use it to prove anything.

    I would encourage everyone concerned to attend.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Phillips
    @tomphillipsin

    “Everyone’s tired. There’s a sort of suicidal temptation. It’s not that they think Milei will win and everything will improve. It’s that they want everything to go to hell. It’s about scorching the earth and starting from scratch.”

    https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1713171369456808074

    People on PB don’t seem to understand how fucked Argentina is, economically.

    Try this for size - Argentines are emigrating to Peru to find work.

    Peru, which has worked so very hard to find the stupidest politicians in South America - they are rubbish at stealing money.
  • Good news coming out of Argentina.

    Hopefully Milei can be a genuine reformist and not a self-aggrandising narcissist like Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    People on PB don’t seem to understand how fucked Argentina is, economically.

    Try this for size - Argentines are emigrating to Peru to find work.

    Peru, which has worked so very hard to find the stupidest politicians in South America - they are rubbish at stealing money.
    Argentina was the 10th wealthiest country in the world in 1913.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    To have some idea about numbers, perhaps? I have a registration no. but no idea if I need to use it to prove anything.

    I would encourage everyone concerned to attend.
    It's damned stupid. Choose a time when it doesn't look like you are marching for Netanyahu.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some good news for the Vatican if true, Milei is anti abortion even if his comments about the Pope have been less than complimentary
    I have heard Milei described as "libertarian" which doesn't really fit with being anti-abortion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2023

    I have heard Milei described as "libertarian" which doesn't really fit with being anti-abortion.
    Most self proclaimed libertarians are just in favour of different restrictions on individual liberty than some mainstream politicians, sometimes even more restrictions.

    Classical liberal is often pretty dicey as a self descriptor too.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    kle4 said:

    Most self proclaimed libertarians are just in favour of different restrictions on individual liberty than some mainstream politicians, sometimes even more restrictions.

    Classical liberal is often pretty dicey as a self descriptor too.
    Oi! I call myself a Gladstonian liberal.

    But then I would be a brutal dictator who put to death anyone doing up their top button without a tie or wearing shoes with no socks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    A
    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina was the 10th wealthiest country in the world in 1913.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
    Yup. Shows just how much ruin there is in a country.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159

    Good news coming out of Argentina.

    Hopefully Milei can be a genuine reformist and not a self-aggrandising narcissist like Trump.

    The guy waving a chainsaw about?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,295
    biggles said:

    Oi! I call myself a Gladstonian liberal.

    But then I would be a brutal dictator who put to death anyone doing up their top button without a tie or wearing shoes with no socks.
    Please run for office. :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    biggles said:

    Oi! I call myself a Gladstonian liberal.

    But then I would be a brutal dictator who put to death anyone doing up their top button without a tie or wearing shoes with no socks.
    As another Gladstonian Liberal, I’m not sure I can get behind your milk-and-water policies on the Sartorial Plague.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    It looks like only 3 provinces in Argentina voted for Massa.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    As another Gladstonian Liberal, I’m not sure I can get behind your milk-and-water policies on the Sartorial Plague.
    A fair challenge. Do we still have the equipment in the Tower for someone to be hanged, drawn, and quartered?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like only 3 provinces in Argentina voted for Massa.

    Would they, by any chance, include the capital and the most urban areas?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    edited November 2023
    biggles said:

    Would they, by any chance, include the capital and the most urban areas?
    No Milei won the capital comfortably, plus massive wins in Cordoba and Mendoza provinces (70%+) and 60% plus in Santa Fe.

    Massa had a narrow win in Buenos Aires province, plus Santiago del Estero and Formosa, while Milei was only about 1000 votes ahead in Chaco.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    No Milei won the capital comfortably, plus massive wins in Cordoba and Mendoza provinces (70%+) and 60% plus in Santa Fe.

    Massa had a narrow win in Buenos Aires province, plus Santiago del Estero and Formosa.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/
    Are the poorest areas of the capital outside the city boundaries? The results might suggest so.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,295
    biggles said:

    A fair challenge. Do we still have the equipment in the Tower for someone to be hanged, drawn, and quartered?
    (Narrator: in a little-known fact the Tower of London can still be legally used as a prison)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    No-one did cold menace like Joss Ackland. RIP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,812
    It’s important to note that Javier Milei has a startling resemblance to a young Bernard Manning
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,387
    Andy_JS said:

    No-one did cold menace like Joss Ackland. RIP.

    Indeed. RIP.

    Joss Ackland starred in one of my favourite TV plays, but sadly one I haven't seen in years. It's called 'First and Last', and is about a retired man who suddenly decides to walk from Land's End to John O'Groats. Sometimes a star's less-well known works really strike a chord.

    I've no idea why someone going on a mad walk appeals to me..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,812
    Wtaf is going on at OpenAI?


    “OpenAI Board Stands by Decision to Force Sam Altman Out of C.E.O. Role
    After 48 hours of furious negotiations, the A.I. company said Mr. Altman would not return to his job and that former Twitch C.EO. Emmett Shear would be its interim boss.”

    (NYT)

    More boring rumours say it is a clash of commercial options, with various side hustles causing rancour

    Much more interesting rumours say this is related to the imminent inception of AGI. Or it is here already and they are all panicking - what to do, how to handle it

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,387
    Leon said:

    Wtaf is going on at OpenAI?


    “OpenAI Board Stands by Decision to Force Sam Altman Out of C.E.O. Role
    After 48 hours of furious negotiations, the A.I. company said Mr. Altman would not return to his job and that former Twitch C.EO. Emmett Shear would be its interim boss.”

    (NYT)

    More boring rumours say it is a clash of commercial options, with various side hustles causing rancour

    Much more interesting rumours say this is related to the imminent inception of AGI. Or it is here already and they are all panicking - what to do, how to handle it

    Yawn. :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    ohnotnow said:

    Borderline Illuminati by the looks of things. It's like the Immortal ydoethur vs Salmond. There can be only one.
    We Welsh are just awesome. We’ve taken over England and Scotland and only Malc has noticed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    Endillion said:

    Not sure if your point is about the relative lack of a practical distinction, or that removing the one but not the other changes neither the facts on the ground nor the political climate - both of which I would agree with - but there is an important legal distinction to be made between the two, and a useful precedent that can be set.
    If you think there is ‘an important practical distinction’ to be made between refugee camps - most of which have been there since 1948 - and pre-existing settlements, all of which surged in population in 1948, you still don’t understand the West Bank.
  • NEW THREAD

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    edited November 2023
    Incidentally to build on our discussion yesterday:

    Ofsted 'seen as toxic' and schools should 'self-evaluate' instead, says inquiry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67449711

    First off, its premise is right but I think its conclusions miss the point. OFSTED is toxic and has to go. Pre-written reports by safeguarding risks based on a series of foolish tick boxes are as useless as Susan Acland-Hood, and certainly militate against good education.

    However, self-evaluation would mean very often no evaluation. Everybody should have a second check. There are ways that could be done constructively rather than punitively, as at present, but it should happen.

    Second, they overlook the issues in Ofsted's structure, which is careless. I suspect it's because the person chairing the report was responsible as Schools Minister for adding to its remit with such catastrophic results.

    However, we then come back to the significance of this. Lord Knight is a Labour peer and has shared platforms with Keir Starmer in the past. He's also a senior figure at the TES and a Fellow of the Institute for Education. He is very well-connected and if he's calling for OFSTED to be fundamentally reformed it suggests its days are numbered.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    kle4 said:

    I was idly checking wikipedia to see if Cameron had selected a peerage title yet (he has - Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton), and I could not help but notice a particular and peculiar edit in the final line of the intro section.

    Previously it said

    Historians and scholars rank Cameron as an average to below-average prime minister.

    Now it says

    In historical rankings of prime ministers of the United Kingdom, academics and journalists have ranked Cameron in the fourth and third quintiles, respectively.

    It's the little differences that matter sometimes. A curious reframing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cameron

    Historians and scholars. Who gives a fuck. The Cameron led Coalition was one of the best of modern times given there was no money left after McDoom and his cronies had fucked everything up.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    DavidL said:

    Is urine not basically sterile?
    One of those, "don't believe until officially denied" things... anyway the Russian kompromat video will confirm anyway, if rumour, and Steele, speaks true.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    viewcode said:

    I am actually thinking of going, if only for five minutes, just to show willing. But I am fucked if I am registering. What the hell is the point of that?
    You don't have to register to go. But presumably it's so that they have some idea of numbers, to give you updates on the route and similar. I dunno.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,812

    Yawn. :)
    Yawn? Lol
This discussion has been closed.