The SNP vs The Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com

System

The SNP vs The Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com

Smarkets have this market up on the next general election on out of the SNP and the Lib Dems, who will win the most seats. I can understand why the Lib Dems are the favourites in this market but I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP won this market.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Primus inter pares.

Benpointer

First. Like the LDs in this case.

HYUFD

It will be close but the LDs might just edge it, on current polls there would be a swing of up to 16% to the LDs if Labour voters vote tactically in Tory v LD target seats which would see the LDs gain 51 seats. That would be more than even the 48 seats the SNP won in 2019 let alone the 35 seats the SNP got in 2017, which current Scottish polls suggest is going to be closer to the next election result for the SNP
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Leon

FPT on the “authenticity” of Italian food

Ciabatta was invented in… 1982

https://briccosalumeria.com/2021/01/04/the-creation-of-ciabatta-bread/

So the classic Indochinese/western backpacker town is more authentic than ciabatta

Gardenwalker

Leon said:

FPT on the “authenticity” of Italian food

Ciabatta was invented in… 1982

https://briccosalumeria.com/2021/01/04/the-creation-of-ciabatta-bread/

So the classic Indochinese/western backpacker town is more authentic than ciabatta

Tartiflette (ok, French) is also a very recent invention.

Sunil_Prasannan

Leon said:

FPT on the “authenticity” of Italian food

Ciabatta was invented in… 1982

https://briccosalumeria.com/2021/01/04/the-creation-of-ciabatta-bread/

So the classic Indochinese/western backpacker town is more authentic than ciabatta

Not sure if beans on ciabatta is better than beans on naan.

Gardenwalker

Why is the Speaker appearing on propaganda channel GB “News” to be interviewed by two Tory MPs, one an actual Cabinet Minister?

TimS

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Benpointer

FPT

biggles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

Never mind those VI numbers, this is a massively important new poll.

M&S food the only remaining Tory supermarket; the Tories are toast (focaccia, with nduja and melted taleggio).



https://x.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=20

(Edit: It's not actually new - fieldwork May '23, and 'Brexit' should say 'Reform' - but why spoil a good headline, eh?)

Oldies love M&S in my experience.

Looking at the Tesco numbers, can we save the polling companies a lot of effort and just ask their customers at the till? Where goes Tesco, so goes the nation.

That's a good point. Given the poll was conducted in May this year, the poll averages were about 43 Lab, 28 Con, 11 LD, 6 Green, 6 RefUK. So the Tesco numbers are damn near spot-on.

Let's hope someone does this survey again close to the next GE - we need to know which supermarket reflects national opinion!

kinabalu

That's a really interesting market. I'd price it 70/30 for the LDs so a touch of value in the SNP.

SandyRentool

Benpointer said:

FPT

biggles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

Never mind those VI numbers, this is a massively important new poll.

M&S food the only remaining Tory supermarket; the Tories are toast (focaccia, with nduja and melted taleggio).



https://x.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=20

(Edit: It's not actually new - fieldwork May '23, and 'Brexit' should say 'Reform' - but why spoil a good headline, eh?)

Oldies love M&S in my experience.

Looking at the Tesco numbers, can we save the polling companies a lot of effort and just ask their customers at the till? Where goes Tesco, so goes the nation.

That's a good point. Given the poll was conducted in May this year, the poll averages were about 43 Lab, 28 Con, 11 LD, 6 Green, 6 RefUK. So the Tesco numbers are damn near spot-on.

Let's hope someone does this survey again close to the next GE - we need to know which supermarket reflects national opinion!

If a Coop membership card was the only acceptable form of id at the polling station we'd win a landslide.

biggles

Gardenwalker said:

Why is the Speaker appearing on propaganda channel GB “News” to be interviewed by two Tory MPs, one an actual Cabinet Minister?

Why are you watching GB News? I have a newly painted wall I can send you a live stream of instead?

Benpointer

Re the Header: "If Scotland becomes independent before the next general election, the market will become void."

Life destroyed by a massive meteor is surely more likely than Scotland becoming independent before the next general election?

kinabalu

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

biggles

Benpointer said:

FPT

biggles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

Never mind those VI numbers, this is a massively important new poll.

M&S food the only remaining Tory supermarket; the Tories are toast (focaccia, with nduja and melted taleggio).



https://x.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=20

(Edit: It's not actually new - fieldwork May '23, and 'Brexit' should say 'Reform' - but why spoil a good headline, eh?)

Oldies love M&S in my experience.

Looking at the Tesco numbers, can we save the polling companies a lot of effort and just ask their customers at the till? Where goes Tesco, so goes the nation.

That's a good point. Given the poll was conducted in May this year, the poll averages were about 43 Lab, 28 Con, 11 LD, 6 Green, 6 RefUK. So the Tesco numbers are damn near spot-on.

Let's hope someone does this survey again close to the next GE - we need to know which supermarket reflects national opinion!

Also needs broadening to include Booths to properly reflect the north, as well as Spar.

We need to know.

Stuartinromford

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

SandyRentool

On topic, my gut feel is SNP.

The LibDems consistently under-perform and SNP may enjoy a bit of swingback.

HYUFD

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

Indeed but the swing from Tory to LD in the bluewall may be one of the highest in the UK now Corbyn is no longer Labour leader but the swing from Tory to SNP in Scotland may be one of the lowest in the UK given Sunak is more popular in Scotland than Boris and the SNP vote is down there almost as much as the Tory vote

biggles

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If we look at this as a probability problem, the number of seats the LibDems *could* win on current polling is greater the number the SNP *could* win if they won every seat they stood in

RandallFlagg

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If the SNP lose twenty seats they'll fall below 30 overall (unless they pick up a couple of SCON seats). Rutherglen suggests they'll lose more than that.

kinabalu

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

Indeed but the swing from Tory to LD in the bluewall may be one of the highest in the UK now Corbyn is no longer Labour leader but the swing from Tory to SNP in Scotland may be one of the lowest in the UK given Sunak is more popular in Scotland than Boris and the SNP vote is down there almost as much as the Tory vote

I'm quite sweet on the LDs in the BW. I don't think they'll flop this time.

Casino_Royale

Matthew Syed comes out for fundamental asylum treaty reform in the ST today.

HYUFD

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

Indeed but the swing from Tory to LD in the bluewall may be one of the highest in the UK now Corbyn is no longer Labour leader but the swing from Tory to SNP in Scotland may be one of the lowest in the UK given Sunak is more popular in Scotland than Boris and the SNP vote is down there almost as much as the Tory vote

I'm quite sweet on the LDs in the BW. I don't think they'll flop this time.

On the latest Redfield polls, the Tory vote is down 16% UK wide on 2019, down 14% in the redwall on 2019 but down 19% in the bluewall on 2019.

The bluewall seats are demographically like the 'Teal' seats in Australia which went from traditionally Coalition to Teal Independent in 2022 on an above average swing
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-november-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-22-october-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-5-november-2023/

Carnyx

RandallFlagg said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If the SNP lose twenty seats they'll fall below 30 overall (unless they pick up a couple of SCON seats). Rutherglen suggests they'll lose more than that.

Different situation now. SKS has proved to diverge from the Scottish Labour Party, something that was concealed at the time of the Ru'glen election. Also, a de facto by-election on a sitting government. Plus the irritation caused by the previous incumbent (albeit modified by her prompt ejection by the SNP). May or may not make much difference.

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

RandallFlagg said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If the SNP lose twenty seats they'll fall below 30 overall (unless they pick up a couple of SCON seats). Rutherglen suggests they'll lose more than that.

Different situation now. SKS has proved to diverge from the Scottish Labour Party, something that was concealed at the time of the Ru'glen election. Also, a de facto by-election on a sitting government. Plus the irritation caused by the previous incumbent (albeit modified by her prompt ejection by the SNP). May or may not make much difference.

What Rutherglen also showed was heavy Tory and LD tactical voting for Labour to beat the SNP, making the headline decline in the SNP vote not capture the full swing to Labour in Scotland

Leon

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

RandallFlagg

Carnyx said:

RandallFlagg said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If the SNP lose twenty seats they'll fall below 30 overall (unless they pick up a couple of SCON seats). Rutherglen suggests they'll lose more than that.

Different situation now. SKS has proved to diverge from the Scottish Labour Party, something that was concealed at the time of the Ru'glen election. Also, a de facto by-election on a sitting government. Plus the irritation caused by the previous incumbent (albeit modified by her prompt ejection by the SNP). May or may not make much difference.

If you're referring to Gaza, I'm not sure it has made any difference by the looks of things.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig (North Lanarkshire) By-Election Result [First Prefs]:

🌹 LAB: 44.0% (+12.8)
🎗️ SNP: 30.1% (-12.7)
🌳 CON: 9.5% (-7.1)
🌍 GRN: 8.2% (+0.4)
💂‍♀️ BUP: 3.1% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (New)
🔷 ALBA: 2.1% (New)
💷 UKIP: 0.8% (+0.1)

No SFP (-0.9) as previous.

Labour GAIN From SNP.
Changes w/ 2022.
Not that it will be factor come the next GE anyway, I imagine.

Carnyx

RandallFlagg said:

Carnyx said:

RandallFlagg said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Also, triumph and disaster line up pretty tidily for the two parties.

If the Lib Dems increase their seat count above 30, they will be doing pretty well. (I think they'll win everything the properly go for on a local basis, but there won't be that many seats like that.)

SNP will surely lose seats, but falling below 30 will be a nasty shock.

If the SNP lose twenty seats they'll fall below 30 overall (unless they pick up a couple of SCON seats). Rutherglen suggests they'll lose more than that.

Different situation now. SKS has proved to diverge from the Scottish Labour Party, something that was concealed at the time of the Ru'glen election. Also, a de facto by-election on a sitting government. Plus the irritation caused by the previous incumbent (albeit modified by her prompt ejection by the SNP). May or may not make much difference.

If you're referring to Gaza, I'm not sure it has made any difference by the looks of things.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig (North Lanarkshire) By-Election Result [First Prefs]:

🌹 LAB: 44.0% (+12.8)
🎗️ SNP: 30.1% (-12.7)
🌳 CON: 9.5% (-7.1)
🌍 GRN: 8.2% (+0.4)
💂‍♀️ BUP: 3.1% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (New)
🔷 ALBA: 2.1% (New)
💷 UKIP: 0.8% (+0.1)

No SFP (-0.9) as previous.

Labour GAIN From SNP.
Changes w/ 2022.
Not that it will be factor come the next GE anyway, I imagine.

Wasn't thinking of it actually, but the issues revealed at Ru'glen, where the Slab candidate specifically adopted SNP positions on several issues, rather than SKS's central Labour HQ positions. Will be interesting to see how this [edit] situation develops.

pigeon

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

Indeed but the swing from Tory to LD in the bluewall may be one of the highest in the UK now Corbyn is no longer Labour leader but the swing from Tory to SNP in Scotland may be one of the lowest in the UK given Sunak is more popular in Scotland than Boris and the SNP vote is down there almost as much as the Tory vote

I'm quite sweet on the LDs in the BW. I don't think they'll flop this time.

On the latest Redfield polls, the Tory vote is down 16% UK wide on 2019, down 14% in the redwall on 2019 but down 19% in the bluewall on 2019.

The bluewall seats are demographically like the 'Teal' seats in Australia which went from traditionally Coalition to Teal Independent in 2022 on an above average swing
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-november-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-22-october-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-5-november-2023/

As always, I'm not sure how much can be read into all these extreme polling numbers. Most likely what will happen is that the Grey Vote will trundle out again to bail out the Tories and, on topic, the SNP will do reasonably well simply because the Blue Woad Brigade won't be able to bring itself to switch sides in sufficient numbers to sink them. We can expect the Lib Dems to underperform because that's just what the Lib Dems do at general elections, and underlying all of this is the simple fact that there's no enthusiasm in the country at large for the Labour Party at all. None.

I expect the Conservatives to be back in Opposition after the next election, but I don't expect them to receive the complete pasting that they so richly deserve. They'll work to shore up the core vote, and a lot of people won't bother to turn out to vote Labour because they're going to end up offering very little that's new, beyond a pledge to manage decline less badly than Rishi Sunak.

Taz

Benpointer said:

First. Like the LDs in this case.

Winning Here.

MJW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

Not really though - India probably marginal favourites after 10 or so overs. Just this partnership might well have turned what should have been a tricky total, into a walkover.

Leon

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

DecrepiterJohnL

MPs furious as iPad row overshadows SNP’s ‘best ever week’ in Westminster
Expenses debacle takes focus away from ‘serious issues’ of Gaza, Rwanda and Braverman
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-furious-as-ipad-row-overshadows-snps-best-ever-week-in-westminster-sr2sjgrkn (£££)

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

Ah, good. Then I can stop fretting

And yes, the 2019 final will remain the greatest one day match ever, I can still remember the unbearable tension, now

kinabalu

Casino_Royale said:

Matthew Syed comes out for fundamental asylum treaty reform in the ST today.

Difficult because it needs a multinational initiative. But necessary because the issue won't be resolved by countries all doing their own thing.

Leon

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

good day for one English player however, Leeds born Josh Inglis taking five catches.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MPs furious as iPad row overshadows SNP’s ‘best ever week’ in Westminster
Expenses debacle takes focus away from ‘serious issues’ of Gaza, Rwanda and Braverman
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-furious-as-ipad-row-overshadows-snps-best-ever-week-in-westminster-sr2sjgrkn (£££)

If that was their best ever week, they haven't achieved much.

kinabalu

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

Leon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

kinabalu

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

Ah, good. Then I can stop fretting

And yes, the 2019 final will remain the greatest one day match ever, I can still remember the unbearable tension, now

India in first 10 overs - 80 for 2.

India in last 40 overs - 160 for 8.

TheScreamingEagles

Nice of Prime Minister Modi to build a library for 130,000 people.

https://twitter.com/RadioCricket/status/1726256146410037429

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is this match as much of a walkover as the score suggests? Cambodian bars seem fairly unwilling to broadcast the Final

Yes.

Nothing will ever top the 2019 final.

Ah, good. Then I can stop fretting

And yes, the 2019 final will remain the greatest one day match ever, I can still remember the unbearable tension, now

India in first 10 overs - 80 for 2.

India in last 40 overs - 160 for 8.

I don't see the Aussies imploding from here.

Incidentally I wonder if Head has just batted himself into pole position to replace Smith as vice-captain and in another couple of years, Cummins as captain?

kinabalu

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

Yes the overlap is only an indirect one in that both the Cons and the SNP are looking down the barrel of Time For A Change.

Indeed but the swing from Tory to LD in the bluewall may be one of the highest in the UK now Corbyn is no longer Labour leader but the swing from Tory to SNP in Scotland may be one of the lowest in the UK given Sunak is more popular in Scotland than Boris and the SNP vote is down there almost as much as the Tory vote

I'm quite sweet on the LDs in the BW. I don't think they'll flop this time.

On the latest Redfield polls, the Tory vote is down 16% UK wide on 2019, down 14% in the redwall on 2019 but down 19% in the bluewall on 2019.

The bluewall seats are demographically like the 'Teal' seats in Australia which went from traditionally Coalition to Teal Independent in 2022 on an above average swing
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-12-november-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-22-october-2023
/https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-5-november-2023/

As always, I'm not sure how much can be read into all these extreme polling numbers. Most likely what will happen is that the Grey Vote will trundle out again to bail out the Tories and, on topic, the SNP will do reasonably well simply because the Blue Woad Brigade won't be able to bring itself to switch sides in sufficient numbers to sink them. We can expect the Lib Dems to underperform because that's just what the Lib Dems do at general elections, and underlying all of this is the simple fact that there's no enthusiasm in the country at large for the Labour Party at all. None.

I expect the Conservatives to be back in Opposition after the next election, but I don't expect them to receive the complete pasting that they so richly deserve. They'll work to shore up the core vote, and a lot of people won't bother to turn out to vote Labour because they're going to end up offering very little that's new, beyond a pledge to manage decline less badly than Rishi Sunak.

A skillful and equitable management of relative decline would be a considerable political achievement for a UK government. If SKS can deliver this he'll go down as one of the greats.

TheScreamingEagles

Remember the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final and John Howard having a face like a slapped arse when presenting England the trophy?

I think Narendra Modi might outdo John Howard today.

malcolmg

TimS said:

What’s interesting about this market is it’s probably the two least autocorrelated battles in the election. The performance of SNP in Scotland is completely independent of the performance of LDs in the South. Near zero overlapping variables.

SNP are heading for the toilet, get on hte Lib Dems

Leon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

What? Of course 2014 was not a hologram. My point is that AFTER that vote the idea of an imminent new vote became increasingly fantastical, in reality, yet the SNP managed to persuade everyone, and keep persuading them, that Sindyref2 was just a few inches away. One more heave

That illusion is shattered. Stop being stupid. You’re already quite boring. Stupid AS WELL would make you unreadable

williamglenn

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MPs furious as iPad row overshadows SNP’s ‘best ever week’ in Westminster
Expenses debacle takes focus away from ‘serious issues’ of Gaza, Rwanda and Braverman
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-furious-as-ipad-row-overshadows-snps-best-ever-week-in-westminster-sr2sjgrkn (£££)

So the SNP now see devolved government as a local distraction?

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Remember the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final and John Howard having a face like a slapped arse when presenting England the trophy?

I think Narendra Modi might outdo John Howard today.

Looks like a great victory for a Commonwealth realm over a Commonwealth republic today, whereas in 2003 the Queen won either way

Leon

This must be one of the worst ever performances by a tournament favourite in a final

Judging by the score, that is. I can’t actually see it but that won’t stop me opining!

malcolmg

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

The clown does not even understand that the almost 50% Independence support is not all SNP, the SNP were up until now the only way to get it. Them going down the toilet will not change the minds of Independence supporters but expectations of Independence will continue to grow and w ecannot be held prisoners ad infinitum. You can only kick people for so long till even the fearties get it.

kinabalu

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

bondegezou

I agree with others. While I'd rather the LibDems got more MPs, I think their odds should be longer.

TheKitchenCabinet

SandyRentool said:

On topic, my gut feel is SNP.

The LibDems consistently under-perform and SNP may enjoy a bit of swingback.

Same.

One thing that may help the SNP is the large number of Labour target seats in the Central belt, where most of the Irish descent population lives. Given the large degree of sympathy for Palestinians amongst that group, this may hurt Labour.

Leon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

No, I don’t feel that

I’m a passionate England fan but I don’t mind who else wins if we can’t, apart from I prefer underdogs (as here)

I just want to watch fine cricket. I am an English gentleman

I DO feel that in football and I definitely feel it in rugby. I think rugby stirs my testosterone more than any other sport. It is more primal and macho, closest to actual warfare

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

This must be one of the worst ever performances by a tournament favourite in a final

Judging by the score, that is. I can’t actually see it but that won’t stop me opining!

1983 waves hello.

But this is a South African choke by India.

HYUFD

TheKitchenCabinet said:

SandyRentool said:

On topic, my gut feel is SNP.

The LibDems consistently under-perform and SNP may enjoy a bit of swingback.

Same.

One thing that may help the SNP is the large number of Labour target seats in the Central belt, where most of the Irish descent population lives. Given the large degree of sympathy for Palestinians amongst that group, this may hurt Labour.

Latest Yougov Scottish subsample last week has a swing of 11% from SNP to Labour since 2019 and 10.5% from Conservative to LD since 2019 (but that does not account for tactical voting)
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231115_W.pdf

Leon

The Aussies are gonna do with about 8 over left. Humiliation for India. Lol

Classic hubris

kinabalu

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

What? Of course 2014 was not a hologram. My point is that AFTER that vote the idea of an imminent new vote became increasingly fantastical, in reality, yet the SNP managed to persuade everyone, and keep persuading them, that Sindyref2 was just a few inches away. One more heave

That illusion is shattered. Stop being stupid. You’re already quite boring. Stupid AS WELL would make you unreadable

But you didn't say that. You just said they've been dangling their carrots "for a long time". If by this you specifically meant since 2014 well ok (ish) but how would we be expected to guess that?

After all you used to bang on about 2014 being very recent. So recent that it would be absurd to even think about another referendum despite it being voted for!

See? Hoist again, I'm afraid. Bamboozled by Kuntibula the Logic Monster.

Flatlander

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

Dunno. Narendra Modi presenting the trophy in the Narendra Modi stadium?

A crowd that is far too one-sided and not even prepared to watch to the end? Are they even cricket fans, or just India fans?


I'm afraid I've been cheering Australia.

ydoethur

Leon said:

The Aussies are gonna do with about 8 over left. Humiliation for India. Lol

Classic hubris

They got big Heads.

TimS

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

Dunno. Narendra Modi presenting the trophy in the Narendra Modi stadium?

A crowd that is far too one-sided and not even prepared to watch to the end? Are they even cricket fans, or just India fans?


I'm afraid I've been cheering Australia.

Shame it’s not India-Pakistan though. Or the dream future movie final, India-Afghanistan.

DavidL

Leon said:

The Aussies are gonna do with about 8 over left. Humiliation for India. Lol

Classic hubris

I don't think that there is a lot of doubt that the choice of fielding first played a major role in this. India really struggled on a dry, hard pitch which turned prodigiously. After the first 10 overs there has been almost no turn of India as the dew has come into play.

Travis Head has been brilliant, quite brilliant but it has been an awful lot easier to bat this evening than it was this afternoon. For the first time in this world cup, without scoreboard pressure, the Indian attack has looked toothless.

Leon

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

Dunno. Narendra Modi presenting the trophy in the Narendra Modi stadium?

A crowd that is far too one-sided and not even prepared to watch to the end? Are they even cricket fans, or just India fans?


I'm afraid I've been cheering Australia.

Yep. Me too. And not enough Indians turned up for the other matches

FAIL

Glad they lost

(I’m also glad that India is almost single handedly turning cricket into a mega global sport, but that’s different)

ydoethur

DavidL said:

Leon said:

The Aussies are gonna do with about 8 over left. Humiliation for India. Lol

Classic hubris

I don't think that there is a lot of doubt that the choice of fielding first played a major role in this. India really struggled on a dry, hard pitch which turned prodigiously. After the first 10 overs there has been almost no turn of India as the dew has come into play.

Travis Head has been brilliant, quite brilliant but it has been an awful lot easier to bat this evening than it was this afternoon. For the first time in this world cup, without scoreboard pressure, the Indian attack has looked toothless.

It was inevitable this would happen from the moment I said Cummins was a fool to bowl.

Although that's still not quite as good as my prediction Alistair Cook would rue putting the Aussies in at Trent Bridge in 2015.

ydoethur

Sobering thought.

There are going to be uni students next year born *after* the 2005 Ashes.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

The Aussies are gonna do with about 8 over left. Humiliation for India. Lol

Classic hubris

I don't think that there is a lot of doubt that the choice of fielding first played a major role in this. India really struggled on a dry, hard pitch which turned prodigiously. After the first 10 overs there has been almost no turn of India as the dew has come into play.

Travis Head has been brilliant, quite brilliant but it has been an awful lot easier to bat this evening than it was this afternoon. For the first time in this world cup, without scoreboard pressure, the Indian attack has looked toothless.

It was inevitable this would happen from the moment I said Cummins was a fool to bowl.

Although that's still not quite as good as my prediction Alistair Cook would rue putting the Aussies in at Trent Bridge in 2015.

I honestly thought India would walk this and it looked possible when Smith was out (still laughing about that) but they were below par and Australia worthy winners.

Leon

Total dry humping for India. Not even any lube. It will hurt

londonpubman

Well done Australia

The pressure of winning in front of a hugely expectant home nation was just too much for India

Leon

if it is to survive ODI cricket REALLY needs the Windies to come roaring back. I miss those Windies teams

Leon

If that match disappointed you, THIS is amusing. The New York Times tries - sincerely - to explain cricket to its readers


https://www.nytimes.com/video/sports/cricket/100000009187237/cricket-explainer.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I like that halfway through the guy gives up calling the wicket “the wicket” and calls it “the posts”

murali_s

Sorry to see the xenophobic sh*t Modi there at the stadium named after the c*nt.

Well played Australia. India reflect not only in cricket but in the way it conducts itself on the a world stage.

MJW

Leon said:

if it is to survive ODI cricket REALLY needs the Windies to come roaring back. I miss those Windies teams

Sadly won't happen as long as India control the money and their best players are more concerned with their IPL contracts than the hard (and less well paid) graft of turning the West Indies into a top team again.

Leon

MJW said:

Leon said:

if it is to survive ODI cricket REALLY needs the Windies to come roaring back. I miss those Windies teams

Sadly won't happen as long as India control the money and their best players are more concerned with their IPL contracts than the hard (and less well paid) graft of turning the West Indies into a top team again.

My faint hope is that the Windies will revive themselves once kids realise how much money they can make in cricket. Apparently cricket has been losing out to basketball. But to make big cash in basketball you have to be a physical freak in size. It is that basic, so your chances of being a pro basketball player in the USA are tiny tiny tiny

Cricket is more accepting of different physiques. Come back to cricket!

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

Sobering thought.

There are going to be uni students next year born *after* the 2005 Ashes.

My granddaughter and her boyfriend were discussing driving tests yesterday and it was quite a shock to realise that they’d both passed this century.

kinabalu

ydoethur said:

Sobering thought.

There are going to be uni students next year born *after* the 2005 Ashes.

Yep. Inc my nephew born Oct 05. Smartypants looks on track for a top uni, probably Cambs.

Taz

Leon said:

MJW said:

Leon said:

if it is to survive ODI cricket REALLY needs the Windies to come roaring back. I miss those Windies teams

Sadly won't happen as long as India control the money and their best players are more concerned with their IPL contracts than the hard (and less well paid) graft of turning the West Indies into a top team again.

My faint hope is that the Windies will revive themselves once kids realise how much money they can make in cricket. Apparently cricket has been losing out to basketball. But to make big cash in basketball you have to be a physical freak in size. It is that basic, so your chances of being a pro basketball player in the USA are tiny tiny tiny

Cricket is more accepting of different physiques. Come back to cricket!

Globetrotting playing T20 is a way to make a pot of cash.

malcolmg

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

What? Of course 2014 was not a hologram. My point is that AFTER that vote the idea of an imminent new vote became increasingly fantastical, in reality, yet the SNP managed to persuade everyone, and keep persuading them, that Sindyref2 was just a few inches away. One more heave

That illusion is shattered. Stop being stupid. You’re already quite boring. Stupid AS WELL would make you unreadable

But you didn't say that. You just said they've been dangling their carrots "for a long time". If by this you specifically meant since 2014 well ok (ish) but how would we be expected to guess that?

After all you used to bang on about 2014 being very recent. So recent that it would be absurd to even think about another referendum despite it being voted for!

See? Hoist again, I'm afraid. Bamboozled by Kuntibula the Logic Monster.

Also given that we are being held hostage , it would not matter if SNP got ZERO votes , we would still have to do something else.

DecrepiterJohnL

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

The Aussies kinda deserve to win for that extraordinary innings by Maxwell. Positively Stokesian

Yes. I'd rather they didn’t though.

I dunno. I think it’s good that India can be challenged - and beaten - at home. in so many ways they dominate the sport now. The Aussies and England - and everyone else - are the underdogs

Ok. Yes fair enough. But I'm surprised you feel that way. You're always making a big deal about being an Englishman and an Englishman never wants Australia to win at cricket.

No, I don’t feel that

I’m a passionate England fan but I don’t mind who else wins if we can’t, apart from I prefer underdogs (as here)

I just want to watch fine cricket. I am an English gentleman

I DO feel that in football and I definitely feel it in rugby. I think rugby stirs my testosterone more than any other sport. It is more primal and macho, closest to actual warfare

Except for the part where they sue because their brains got mushed.

Ex-stars suing rugby for damage it did to their brains
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ex-stars-suing-rugby-for-damage-it-did-to-their-brains-mjztkc73p (£££)

MJW

Leon said:

MJW said:

Leon said:

if it is to survive ODI cricket REALLY needs the Windies to come roaring back. I miss those Windies teams

Sadly won't happen as long as India control the money and their best players are more concerned with their IPL contracts than the hard (and less well paid) graft of turning the West Indies into a top team again.

My faint hope is that the Windies will revive themselves once kids realise how much money they can make in cricket. Apparently cricket has been losing out to basketball. But to make big cash in basketball you have to be a physical freak in size. It is that basic, so your chances of being a pro basketball player in the USA are tiny tiny tiny

Cricket is more accepting of different physiques. Come back to cricket!

Indeed. The worrying thing is though that there's already been a generation of pretty talented players (Hetmyer, Narine, Pooran, Shepherd, Lewis etc) who have regularly been signed up in the IPL.

However, the Windies have declined rather than improved as they rarely play for the West Indies, and when they do it's usually throwing them together for a tournament in the hope it all comes off. Shortage of talent isn't so much the problem - mainly that it's all signed up for T20 franchises and tailor their careers to those rather than what might improve the international side.

Especially true of ODIs where if we've seen one thing in this World Cup it's that you can't just play slightly modified T20 cricket.

If players are playing 5 months in the IPL, plus stints in affiliated T20 leagues in SA, Dubai, and the US, it's difficult to see where the West Indies get a look in without the ability to offer contracts that even tempt players to pare back franchise commitments a bit, as England and Aus do.

TimS

Ahead of this week’s Autumn statement an interesting tax chart to chew on.

https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1726265331214073856?s=46

Since 1970 UK and US taxation has become much flatter, while French has stayed almost the same.

kinabalu

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

What? Of course 2014 was not a hologram. My point is that AFTER that vote the idea of an imminent new vote became increasingly fantastical, in reality, yet the SNP managed to persuade everyone, and keep persuading them, that Sindyref2 was just a few inches away. One more heave

That illusion is shattered. Stop being stupid. You’re already quite boring. Stupid AS WELL would make you unreadable

But you didn't say that. You just said they've been dangling their carrots "for a long time". If by this you specifically meant since 2014 well ok (ish) but how would we be expected to guess that?

After all you used to bang on about 2014 being very recent. So recent that it would be absurd to even think about another referendum despite it being voted for!

See? Hoist again, I'm afraid. Bamboozled by Kuntibula the Logic Monster.

Also given that we are being held hostage , it would not matter if SNP got ZERO votes , we would still have to do something else.

Like what though? It's hard to see a Sindy route which doesn't go via another referendum - and that's in the gift of Westminster.

algarkirk

Weird facts about modern UK. Wm Hills, market on next permanent Tory leader. The leading white male who is currently an MP is 7th in the list, Dowden (probably most people would not recognise him in the street and have never heard of him) at 25/1. Barclay (!) next at 40/1. Hunt 50/1.

TimS

Odd, looking at all the post reshuffle polls, to see an apparent trend of Labour down, Tories up a bit, Lib Dems up and Ref fairly flat. Wasn’t expecting that.

Roger

Interesting that Biden is coming under pressure from his own party to call for an instant ceasefire in Gaza. The demonstrations are getting bigger and Biden is starting to wobble. It could lead to Starmer looking pretty ridiculous if he is left standing there on his own. One of the big problems is that Netanyahu is a difficult person to get behind for a Democrat President

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001sljc

Foxy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

FPT on the “authenticity” of Italian food

Ciabatta was invented in… 1982

https://briccosalumeria.com/2021/01/04/the-creation-of-ciabatta-bread/

So the classic Indochinese/western backpacker town is more authentic than ciabatta

Not sure if beans on ciabatta is better than beans on naan.

How about Dhal on naan?

algarkirk

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

Sobering thought.

There are going to be uni students next year born *after* the 2005 Ashes.

My granddaughter and her boyfriend were discussing driving tests yesterday and it was quite a shock to realise that they’d both passed this century.

Lives are long as well as time going quickly. There are lots of people still living whose lives overlapped with Thomas Hardy.

Andy_JS

Congratulations Australia.

Any news from the Argentinian election?

Gardenwalker

TimS said:

Odd, looking at all the post reshuffle polls, to see an apparent trend of Labour down, Tories up a bit, Lib Dems up and Ref fairly flat. Wasn’t expecting that.

Just noise, I think.
However, I did expect a v v modest Tory up / Labour down dynamic. We need another week to see if it really plays out.

Foxy

TimS said:

Ahead of this week’s Autumn statement an interesting tax chart to chew on.

https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1726265331214073856?s=46

Since 1970 UK and US taxation has become much flatter, while French has stayed almost the same.

Headline rates can be misleading. Doesn't France have generous allowances for dependent children?

kinabalu

Roger said:

Interesting that Biden is coming under pressure from his own party to call for an instant ceasefire in Gaza. The demonstrations are getting bigger and Biden is starting to wobble. It could lead to Starmer looking pretty ridiculous if he is left standing there on his own. One of the big problems is that Netanyahu is a difficult person to get behind for a Democrat President

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001sljc

If the US changed to 'ceasefire now' I bet both Sunak and Starmer would do the same.

Roger

PS More Democrats now support the Palestinians than the Israelis.

kinabalu

Andy_JS said:

Congratulations Australia.

Any news from the Argentinian election?

Not much betting action. The fruity 'tell it like it is' populist is steady at 1.7 fav.

Chris

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Remember the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final and John Howard having a face like a slapped arse when presenting England the trophy?

I think Narendra Modi might outdo John Howard today.

Looks like a great victory for a Commonwealth realm over a Commonwealth republic today, whereas in 2003 the Queen won either way

Bizarre.

algarkirk

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

On Indy I think the change is not the support for YES, but the sense of it as an urgent necessity rather than a vague but pleasing aspiration

For a long time the Nats - brilliantly - kept dangling the YES Indy carrot like the donkey electorate was gonna eat it any moment. Now the donkey realises the carrot was a hologram, and any nice food is a long way down the road

Sure, the donkey would still LIKE a juicy carrot, but the donkey has accepted that there are now more pressing needs, like eating some grass, getting down the road, maybe humping a sexy jackass in the next village

So 45% support for YES no longer translates into anything like 45 points for the SNP, coz the SNP don’t have any fake carrots left, and the new SNP are also really quite shit, and resented for the whole carrot thing, and because donkey is bored of carrying them

I reckon the Nats are more likely to go under 30 seats than stay over, so the LDs are probably, rightly, modest favorites in this market

The 2014 referendum was not a hologram and nor was the demand for another one after the Brexit-fuelled Holyrood victory of the SNP on that specific platform.

Suspect your analogy comes mainly from a desire to present Sindy supporting Scottish people as donkies.

The clown does not even understand that the almost 50% Independence support is not all SNP, the SNP were up until now the only way to get it. Them going down the toilet will not change the minds of Independence supporters but expectations of Independence will continue to grow and w ecannot be held prisoners ad infinitum. You can only kick people for so long till even the fearties get it.

Scottish supporters of the union, who are a larger group, may well feel there is only so much huffing and puffing a minority cause can make before the unionists can get on with their lives without the constant campaigning of a minority for a cause that cannot prevail but can make a lot of noise.

OldKingCole

algarkirk said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

Sobering thought.

There are going to be uni students next year born *after* the 2005 Ashes.

My granddaughter and her boyfriend were discussing driving tests yesterday and it was quite a shock to realise that they’d both passed this century.

Lives are long as well as time going quickly. There are lots of people still living whose lives overlapped with Thomas Hardy.

Personally I find it quite refreshing to hear people singing God Save the King again. Although if I were able, and so minded, to go on demonstrations he wouldn’t be mine.

williamglenn

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Biden is coming under pressure from his own party to call for an instant ceasefire in Gaza. The demonstrations are getting bigger and Biden is starting to wobble. It could lead to Starmer looking pretty ridiculous if he is left standing there on his own. One of the big problems is that Netanyahu is a difficult person to get behind for a Democrat President

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001sljc

If the US changed to 'ceasefire now' I bet both Sunak and Starmer would do the same.

Aaron Bastani agrees with you:

https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1724840160414536178

kinabalu

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Biden is coming under pressure from his own party to call for an instant ceasefire in Gaza. The demonstrations are getting bigger and Biden is starting to wobble. It could lead to Starmer looking pretty ridiculous if he is left standing there on his own. One of the big problems is that Netanyahu is a difficult person to get behind for a Democrat President

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001sljc

If the US changed to 'ceasefire now' I bet both Sunak and Starmer would do the same.

Aaron Bastani agrees with you:

https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1724840160414536178

Well I didn't steer him. We're estranged. He's looking a bit chubbychops these days, isn't he.