politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Miliband rumblings haven’t quietened down after the

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so Kinnock joins the illustrious company of Hardie, Attlee and Wilson.

Wilson didn't lose two successive elections, did he? Won in 64, 66, lost in 70, won in Feb 74 and again Oct 74

Did he not lose the popular vote in two elections in a row?

1970 and Feb 1974.

Ps emailed you

Seats, dear boy, seats and being PM that's what decides who wins or loses!

Yep, e-mail safely received and I'll get back to you once Jolly Green Neil stirs himself!

Of course. Seats it is.

Casino_Royale said:

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....

I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour

You seem to be betting all the time. Where do you get all this money from?

PS. On that logic you would have lost in GE2010!

Winnings? Pulpstar is a very smart cookie!

Not winnings... yet... but I'm trying to keep a green book and get value on all sides for GE2015.

Closed bets are in profit though, yes.

Are you coming to Dirty Dicks ?

Wouldn't mind an experienced punter checking my GE book...

Maybe next time - unfortunately there are a couple of PBers with whom I'd decidedly prefer not to meet again!

Oh? That sounds an interesting story.

Only of interest to me Casino, but a sad story nonetheless, as I used to invariably enjoy PB functions, especially the diversity of views and the betting ideas which I took away with me.

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

SimonStClare said:

The Twitter #EM4PM campaign to save Ed is going well then.

The net is littered with photos of Ewan McGregor - Eric Morecombe – Ed Murphy - Eddie Mair – Esther McVey etc etc, for 4 PM

The former Australian Rugby Union coach, Ewen McKenzie, who resigned last week, is out of work.

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

I never seem to be in the right place at the right time to make it to a PB get together. Even when I worked within walking distance of Dirty D's I always had a clash.

I'm sure you can get on just fine without a left-wing Geordie anyways.

Oh, and have the Blairites got back in their box yet? As I said here around 4 years ago, Ed's big decision will be whether or not he wants to seek a third term as PM.

weejonnie said:

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

Especially if the compere is Bruce Forsyth!

weejonnie said:

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/christopher-howarth-the-eaw-we-should-cooperate-with-our-eu-neighbours-but-why-should-we-join-a-eu-criminal-justice-system.html

JohnO said:

According to BBC breaking news, Osborne claiming UK will pay only 50% of that £1.7bn bill

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29956289

Well done. But the problem is that many people don't want the UK to pay anything!

Pulpstar said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....

I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour

In fact, Bury's a pretty affluent Lancastrian mill town, with a long history of working class Toryism. The more rural bits around it and Ramsbottom are pretty decently Tory.

Pretty sure it was mostly Tory from the 1960s to 1997. However, the council has gone strongly back Labour in recent years from being Tory controlled under Gordon Brown as PM, and I can't see David Nuttall holding on, particularly with a UKIP onslaught and they are likely to pick up many votes. The Ashcroft polling in Bury N was not good this week either.

(Incidentally, I moved to the bottom end of Bury a couple of years ago. It was nice to be living in a marginal and Tory-held seat again - until I found out I lived in the only ward in Bury that is not in the misleadingly named "Bury North". So I'm actually in the only bit of Bury in the Labour seat of Bury South (or "Prestwich, Whitefield & Radcliffe" as it should be called), and although it was Tory in the 80s, that has no chance of ever going Tory again! Bugger....)

chestnut said:

Osborne on BBC News:

Bill halved, payable in two instalments next year, rules permanently changed, no interest payable and rebate fully intact.

How can that be?

on an LBC radio phone-in on Friday morning, Farage said Cameron would have little option but to go along with the demand, which will have to be paid in December.

“Of course he will pay up. These are the rules, the contributions to the European Union was a very complex formula and part of it is a measurement of your GDP against everybody else’s. There’s nothing he can do,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/24/eu-contribution-cameron-pay-extra-funds-farage

This highlights what's going on:

Tony McNulty‏ @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago
@Spectator_CH @jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.

OldKingCole said:

anotherDave said:

weejonnie said:

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/christopher-howarth-the-eaw-we-should-cooperate-with-our-eu-neighbours-but-why-should-we-join-a-eu-criminal-justice-system.html

Are there circumnstances in which someone might be the subject of a warrant from, say, Poland, for something which is not a crime here?

Just asking, since Kippers seem to think it’s UK against a homogenous “EU” nwhere none of the other countries disagree with each other about anything!

The King family hadn't committed any crime when the UK police used the EAW to imprison them in Spain.

POSBWAS

Sarah Brown ‏@SarahBrownUK 4m4 minutes ago
Proud to sit between two Labour leaders, Neil Kinnock & Ed Miliband, at service to honour Paul Cottingham. Great tributes to a lovely man.

31%.

That's the percentage of Labour MPs who backed Ed Miliband in the leadership contest.

If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.

If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!

I smell a great big stinking rat.

UKIP price for Rochester has contracted suddenly to 1.05.

Is there a poll out there?

Bob__Sykes said:

If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.

If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!

I smell a great big stinking rat.

That's basically what's happened. Body language very revealing:

Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott·
I am struck by how very nervous/stressed the Chx looked just now as he announced his "great deal." Is there something fishy about this??

Socrates said:

Bob__Sykes said:

If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.

If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!

I smell a great big stinking rat.

The BBC is reporting it as being halved.

No, it is reporting that Osborne says it is being halved. A crucial distinction.

Ed is a Spod.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-ed-miliband-4585961

Must be a Tory rag, mocking him this time.

weejonnie said:

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

It's not a question of being a little Englander but of noting that we have the concept of habeas corpus and most other European countries do not. This can and does lead to injustice. I do not think that justice should be sacrificed just to be able to say that we are being "European" whatever that means in this context. People can perfectly well be extradited without the EAW.

David_Evershed said:

BBC report

An armoured column including 32 tanks and 30 trucks has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, Kiev says.

Looks like an invasion and smells like an invasion ...............

The rouble has been in freefall recently, so I guess something like this was anticipated.

BenM said:

This highlights what's going on:

Tony McNulty‏ @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago
@Spectator_CH @jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.

George Osborne insisted that the Commission apply the ‘British advantage’ element of the rebate to the bill which led to this 50% reduction. Other EU member state have also accepted that no payments will be made by HMG before the election, with the final payment due on the 1st of September next year.

This is what Forsyth wrote. That suggests that the amount has been discounted by the application of the usual British rebate rather than McNulty's response.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/osborne-gets-britains-1-7bn-bill-halved-and-no-payments-before-the-election/

NOM 1.68
Lab 4.1
Con 5.9

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

David_Evershed said:

BBC report

An armoured column including 32 tanks and 30 trucks has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, Kiev says.

Looks like an invasion and smells like an invasion ...............

This must be the 100th time Russian has invaded. I don't think even NATO will go along with this one, certainly not expecting any satellite photos anytime soon.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/get-ready-world-ukraine-being-torn-shreds-11611?page=show
Serious analysis of why Ukraine is between a rock and a hard place.

It may be the the EU did not take account of the UK's rebate when they calculated the 15 years of backpayments for revised GDP.

In particular the rebate was much higher before Blair gave it away so would be a significant saving on tne original calculation.

anotherDave said:

OldKingCole said:

anotherDave said:

weejonnie said:

Bob__Sykes said:

isam said:

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:48
Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW

UKIP (@UKIP)
07/11/2014 12:53
A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”

Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?

Nil.

It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.

Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.

Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/christopher-howarth-the-eaw-we-should-cooperate-with-our-eu-neighbours-but-why-should-we-join-a-eu-criminal-justice-system.html

Are there circumnstances in which someone might be the subject of a warrant from, say, Poland, for something which is not a crime here?

Just asking, since Kippers seem to think it’s UK against a homogenous “EU” nwhere none of the other countries disagree with each other about anything!

The King family hadn't committed any crime when the UK police used the EAW to imprison them in Spain.

That’s true, although, without taking side, IIRC there was a discussion about whether there was a child protection issue.

However my question was, if the was a warrant out for someone in Poland for something which wasn’t a crime in Britain whether our Police would be expected to arrest someone who’d fled here?

TGOHF said:

So Ukip and the media were too stupid to realise that the rebate would be applied ?

Yes.

Why oh why weren't Cameron and Osborne just honest about what was going on rather than immediately lurching into the preposterous anti EU butch and macho mode of the last week or so?

@David_Cameron: I said we wouldn't pay £1.7bn on December 1st. We've now halved the bill and will pay nothing until next July. We're delivering for Britain.

David_Evershed said:

It may be the the EU did not take account of the UK's rebate when they calculated the 15 years of backpayments for revised GDP.

In particular the rebate was much higher before Blair gave it away so would be a significant saving on tne original calculation.

So, in summary, George can do maths, and Brussels can't.

No wonder they can't get their accounts signed off. They were probably presented in crayon.

Speech by Farage in Rochester & Strood at a public meeting:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpqeMY1A9C8&amp

@ITVJoel: Well, well, well. The Chancellor has secured the discount he told @itvnews last week he was confident he'd get http://t.co/zBBzJOSxuC

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re Osborne and EU money.

Not since Agincourt or Waterloo has an Englishman gone to mainland Europe and given the Europeans such a trashing.

Stunning victory.

How much money did we fork over to the continentals after the victories in Agincourt and Waterloo?

I expect Abba to reform and do a song on Osborne's victory.

Socrates said:

Scott_P said:

@Nigel_Farage: Osborne trying to spin his way out of disaster. UK still paying full £1.7bn, his credibility is about to nose dive.

I think Farage is wrong about this. Osborne was quite clear that the bill had halved.

The bill hasn't halved.

What you're witnessing is a shift from the focus on P&L to one on cashflow.

Edit: which means I'm more in agreement with Farage! Hell hath frozen over!

Anthony Wells / UKPR: "How the votes have shifted since 2012":

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049#comments

@IsabelHardman: /@MarkReckless is claiming Tories misquoted him on Lodge Hill. Here's the Hansard http://t.co/WvbXhzUgXU http://t.co/R39DPh5lkE

peter_from_putney said:

antifrank said:

Off topic, for the lunchtime crowd, here's my piece from this morning looking at how all the various constituency markets fit together and their implications for the overall general election result:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-constituency-markets-today-putting.html

A very comprehensive and impressive piece of work antifrank and an excellent betting reference guide for punters such as myself I would suggest. It's remarkable how you find the time and enthusiasm to collate all this information in so much detail and in such an orderly fashion.
Taken together well worthy of the 2014 POTY award in my view, no doubt about it.

That's very kind of you, but to be honest I do it mainly for myself so that I can make sure I'm not making silly bets by accident (I sometimes make silly bets on purpose...) Having done the work, I put it online so that if I've made any obvious mistakes other people can point them out to me.

This last week my other half has been in northern Ireland, so I've had a fair amount of free time in the evenings and first thing in the morning. There will probably be a period of relative quiet for a week or two after this bout of activity.

Plato said:

Who is Danny The Tunnel King here?

Well now it's Lucy Powell...

Cripes !