UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Mr Rees-Mogg will "spearhead wider opposition to the EAW", whatever that means.
Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....
I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour
You seem to be betting all the time. Where do you get all this money from?
PS. On that logic you would have lost in GE2010!
Winnings? Pulpstar is a very smart cookie!
Not winnings... yet... but I'm trying to keep a green book and get value on all sides for GE2015.
Closed bets are in profit though, yes.
Are you coming to Dirty Dicks ?
Wouldn't mind an experienced punter checking my GE book...
If you're still betting on a Labour majority you're wasting your money IMHO. I've gone very red on Lab Maj, and am very comfortable with that.
I can understand the 'all-green' approach though. It's more comfortable if you're not personally 100% sure. It depends on the punter and the risk appetite.
Oh I am blood red on Labour Majority too, a Labour Minority administration OTOH would be very nice.
Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....
I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour
You seem to be betting all the time. Where do you get all this money from?
PS. On that logic you would have lost in GE2010!
Winnings? Pulpstar is a very smart cookie!
Not winnings... yet... but I'm trying to keep a green book and get value on all sides for GE2015.
Closed bets are in profit though, yes.
Are you coming to Dirty Dicks ?
Wouldn't mind an experienced punter checking my GE book...
Maybe next time - unfortunately there are a couple of PBers with whom I'd decidedly prefer not to meet again!
Oh? That sounds an interesting story.
Only of interest to me Casino, but a sad story nonetheless, as I used to invariably enjoy PB functions, especially the diversity of views and the betting ideas which I took away with me.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....
I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour
You seem to be betting all the time. Where do you get all this money from?
PS. On that logic you would have lost in GE2010!
Winnings? Pulpstar is a very smart cookie!
Not winnings... yet... but I'm trying to keep a green book and get value on all sides for GE2015.
Closed bets are in profit though, yes.
Are you coming to Dirty Dicks ?
Wouldn't mind an experienced punter checking my GE book...
Maybe next time - unfortunately there are a couple of PBers with whom I'd decidedly prefer not to meet again!
Oh? That sounds an interesting story.
Only of interest to me Casino, but a sad story nonetheless, as I used to invariably enjoy PB functions, especially the diversity of views and the betting ideas which I took away with me.
I understand. I'm sorry to hear that. It would have been a privilege to meet you.
Fantastic analogy! Unfortunately due to the poor leadership of 'Big X', and his 35% strategy, the tunnel is 20 feet short of the inside of the perimeter fence.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
the biggest fear labour must have is winning with EdM as leader . He will lead them back to the wilderness of opposition for a generation if he wins in 2015
I never seem to be in the right place at the right time to make it to a PB get together. Even when I worked within walking distance of Dirty D's I always had a clash.
I'm sure you can get on just fine without a left-wing Geordie anyways.
Oh, and have the Blairites got back in their box yet? As I said here around 4 years ago, Ed's big decision will be whether or not he wants to seek a third term as PM.
Delay in payment of £1.7bn EU bill confirmed, also Osborne shouting that UK will only pay half (but whether that factors in the increased rebate and structural funding I don't know).
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.
Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....
I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour
In fact, Bury's a pretty affluent Lancastrian mill town, with a long history of working class Toryism. The more rural bits around it and Ramsbottom are pretty decently Tory.
Pretty sure it was mostly Tory from the 1960s to 1997. However, the council has gone strongly back Labour in recent years from being Tory controlled under Gordon Brown as PM, and I can't see David Nuttall holding on, particularly with a UKIP onslaught and they are likely to pick up many votes. The Ashcroft polling in Bury N was not good this week either.
(Incidentally, I moved to the bottom end of Bury a couple of years ago. It was nice to be living in a marginal and Tory-held seat again - until I found out I lived in the only ward in Bury that is not in the misleadingly named "Bury North". So I'm actually in the only bit of Bury in the Labour seat of Bury South (or "Prestwich, Whitefield & Radcliffe" as it should be called), and although it was Tory in the 80s, that has no chance of ever going Tory again! Bugger....)
Bill halved, payable in two instalments next year, rules permanently changed, no interest payable and rebate fully intact.
How can that be?
on an LBC radio phone-in on Friday morning, Farage said Cameron would have little option but to go along with the demand, which will have to be paid in December.
“Of course he will pay up. These are the rules, the contributions to the European Union was a very complex formula and part of it is a measurement of your GDP against everybody else’s. There’s nothing he can do,” he said.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.
Bill halved, payable in two instalments next year, rules permanently changed, no interest payable and rebate fully intact.
How can that be?
on an LBC radio phone-in on Friday morning, Farage said Cameron would have little option but to go along with the demand, which will have to be paid in December.
“Of course he will pay up. These are the rules, the contributions to the European Union was a very complex formula and part of it is a measurement of your GDP against everybody else’s. There’s nothing he can do,” he said.
Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago @Spectator_CH@jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.
Bill halved, payable in two instalments next year, rules permanently changed, no interest payable and rebate fully intact.
How can that be?
on an LBC radio phone-in on Friday morning, Farage said Cameron would have little option but to go along with the demand, which will have to be paid in December.
“Of course he will pay up. These are the rules, the contributions to the European Union was a very complex formula and part of it is a measurement of your GDP against everybody else’s. There’s nothing he can do,” he said.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.
Sarah Brown @SarahBrownUK 4m4 minutes ago Proud to sit between two Labour leaders, Neil Kinnock & Ed Miliband, at service to honour Paul Cottingham. Great tributes to a lovely man.
The EU has played a blinder here. They've managed to make an extra £850 million being transferred from the UK to Brussels look like a victory for the UK.
That's the European Union for you: a loss is where you get screwed, a win is where you get half-screwed.
I wonder if there's been a bit of wink-wink nudge-nudge. Ok, we'll pay £850m, rather than £400m we wanted to, provided you play ball with us on the EU renegotiation next year. If you don't we'll withhold the 2nd payment. We scratch your back you scratch ours.
That's negotiation. On an aside, I'm finding Osborne an increasingly effective political operator and now wonder if I'd prefer him as next Tory leader to Boris.
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I never seem to be in the right place at the right time to make it to a PB get together. Even when I worked within walking distance of Dirty D's I always had a clash.
I'm sure you can get on just fine without a left-wing Geordie anyways.
Oh, and have the Blairites got back in their box yet? As I said here around 4 years ago, Ed's big decision will be whether or not he wants to seek a third term as PM.
You want to bet on that?
I'm willing to say that he will, at most, serve 6 years as PM in the next 10.
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
Well if Brussels is involved its likely a whole nest of them!
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
That's basically what's happened. Body language very revealing:
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott· I am struck by how very nervous/stressed the Chx looked just now as he announced his "great deal." Is there something fishy about this??
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
The BBC is reporting it as being halved.
No, it is reporting that Osborne says it is being halved. A crucial distinction.
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
The BBC is reporting it as being halved.
No, it is reporting that Osborne says it is being halved. A crucial distinction.
It would be monumentally stupid to agree the full bill, but even more monumentally stupid to pretend you weren't when the truth will come out in a couple of hours. I don't believe the Tories, for all their faults, are that stupid.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
It's not a question of being a little Englander but of noting that we have the concept of habeas corpus and most other European countries do not. This can and does lead to injustice. I do not think that justice should be sacrificed just to be able to say that we are being "European" whatever that means in this context. People can perfectly well be extradited without the EAW.
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago @CarlWil35586309@MikkiL@LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
If Osborne has just agreed to pay the £1.7bn but in instalments, with some chicanery to make it look like it's been cut in half, then he is finished, Cameron is finished, and the Tories are finished.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
The BBC is reporting it as being halved.
No, it is reporting that Osborne says it is being halved. A crucial distinction.
Does it means the net payment is halved as our rebate is adjusted to take consideration of the extra payment ?
This is roughly what I got to when I calculated the net effect of all the adjustments to the budget contributions - in addition to the single one that has made all the headlines. Does he really think the British media is that stupid?
Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago @Spectator_CH@jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.
George Osborne insisted that the Commission apply the ‘British advantage’ element of the rebate to the bill which led to this 50% reduction. Other EU member state have also accepted that no payments will be made by HMG before the election, with the final payment due on the 1st of September next year.
This is what Forsyth wrote. That suggests that the amount has been discounted by the application of the usual British rebate rather than McNulty's response.
UKIP price for Rochester has contracted suddenly to 1.05.
Is there a poll out there?
I expect there is.
Thank you, TSE.
You do 'enigmatic' so beautifully.
I have to be careful. Once I said ComRes phone poll out at 10pm and people applied all sorts of Kremlinology to my comment. Was it good for the Tories etc.
All I will say is I haven't seen any embargoed polls.
Net effect is no payment before the election, reduced payment after the election in 2015.
Whoever is in government in 2016 may well have a live issue to return to with rebate negotiations, so it all depends on who people vote for in May 2015 and, indirectly, whether a referendum is set to be held.
An armoured column including 32 tanks and 30 trucks has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, Kiev says.
Looks like an invasion and smells like an invasion ...............
This must be the 100th time Russian has invaded. I don't think even NATO will go along with this one, certainly not expecting any satellite photos anytime soon.
Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago @Spectator_CH@jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.
George Osborne insisted that the Commission apply the ‘British advantage’ element of the rebate to the bill which led to this 50% reduction. Other EU member state have also accepted that no payments will be made by HMG before the election, with the final payment due on the 1st of September next year.
This is what Forsyth wrote. That suggests that the amount has been discounted by the application of the usual British rebate rather than McNulty's response.
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:48 Stuart Wheeler is to seek a High Court injunction against any decision by the House of Commons on Monday to opt Britain back into the EAW
UKIP (@UKIP) 07/11/2014 12:53 A QC representing Mr Wheeler will argue that opting UK back into the EAW without a referendum is a clear breach of the “referendum lock”
Prospects of success, in case anyone was wondering?
Nil.
It's not the success that is important, it is the trying and (most important) failing that will reap dividends.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
Being imprisoned without charge is not a small thing.
Are there circumnstances in which someone might be the subject of a warrant from, say, Poland, for something which is not a crime here?
Just asking, since Kippers seem to think it’s UK against a homogenous “EU” nwhere none of the other countries disagree with each other about anything!
The King family hadn't committed any crime when the UK police used the EAW to imprison them in Spain.
That’s true, although, without taking side, IIRC there was a discussion about whether there was a child protection issue.
However my question was, if the was a warrant out for someone in Poland for something which wasn’t a crime in Britain whether our Police would be expected to arrest someone who’d fled here?
So Ukip and the media were too stupid to realise that the rebate would be applied ?
Yes.
Why oh why weren't Cameron and Osborne just honest about what was going on rather than immediately lurching into the preposterous anti EU butch and macho mode of the last week or so?
@David_Cameron: I said we wouldn't pay £1.7bn on December 1st. We've now halved the bill and will pay nothing until next July. We're delivering for Britain.
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago @CarlWil35586309@MikkiL@LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
Farage defending the traditional British right to commit murder.
Yeah, right. I suppose that's the kind of British values UKIP want to celebrate.
Presumably UKIP would take the same view if, say, evidence came to light of an Argentinian officer killing a wounded British soldier in cold-blood.
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago @CarlWil35586309@MikkiL@LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
Farage defending the traditional British right to commit murder.
Yeah, right. I suppose that's the kind of British values UKIP want to celebrate.
Presumably UKIP would take the same view if, say, evidence came to light of an Argentinian officer killing a wounded British soldier in cold-blood.
You are a miserable fool, Nabavi. Your words show how twisted your mind is.
Casino_R - thanks very much for that post, and for the links to your blog postings which I have skimmed and will come back to when I have more time. I can see some cause for optimism, for sure. I have a feeling that there are droves of Tory 2010 wins that haven't a hope in hell of staying Tory, but if Labour collapse they might well do - and even if my local seats like Bury N, Pendle, Rossendale and others in the north return safely to the Labour fold, as I am 100% certain they will, there might not be as many of these seats as I think there are....
I've backed Labour in Bury North. Just "sounds" like it should be Labour
You seem to be betting all the time. Where do you get all this money from?
PS. On that logic you would have lost in GE2010!
Winnings? Pulpstar is a very smart cookie!
I'm sure he is. My disposable income available for betting each month is rather limited.
@Nigel_Farage: Osborne trying to spin his way out of disaster. UK still paying full £1.7bn, his credibility is about to nose dive.
I think Farage is wrong about this. Osborne was quite clear that the bill had halved.
The bill hasn't halved.
What you're witnessing is a shift from the focus on P&L to one on cashflow.
Edit: which means I'm more in agreement with Farage! Hell hath frozen over!
THAT I can believe as plausible for the Tories to do: get the rebate netted off the first payment, rather than getting it back later. But it just seems unlikely that the numbers work. Does the rebate exactly half the bill? I don't buy it.
So Ukip and the media were too stupid to realise that the rebate would be applied ?
The rebate is applied in all the other budget amendments that I looked at, as far as I could understand them, so it would surprise me if the original calculation did not include the UK adjustment, as per normal.
Consequently I think that explanation is bollocks.
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago @CarlWil35586309@MikkiL@LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
Farage defending the traditional British right to commit murder.
Yeah, right. I suppose that's the kind of British values UKIP want to celebrate.
Presumably UKIP would take the same view if, say, evidence came to light of an Argentinian officer killing a wounded British soldier in cold-blood.
You are a miserable fool, Nabavi. Your words show how twisted your mind is.
My words show that I am a consistent upholder of the principles of British justice, irrespective of who commits the crime and the ethnicity of the victim.
Fantastic analogy! Unfortunately due to the poor leadership of 'Big X', and his 35% strategy, the tunnel is 20 feet short of the inside of the perimeter fence.
@Nigel_Farage: Osborne trying to spin his way out of disaster. UK still paying full £1.7bn, his credibility is about to nose dive.
I think Farage is wrong about this. Osborne was quite clear that the bill had halved.
The bill hasn't halved.
What you're witnessing is a shift from the focus on P&L to one on cashflow.
Edit: which means I'm more in agreement with Farage! Hell hath frozen over!
Strange bedfellows!
Anyway, surely, surely Osborne isn't so stupid as to give this the full smoke and mirrors treatment. He must know that it would unravel by tea-time and he'd look like a total putz. Surely.
I think if that is true that is worse than having to fork out £1.7 billion..
Takes a special kind of curmudgeon (Fraser Nelson) to invent a reason so fatuous as this.
With the Treasury borrowing £100 billion a year (and recently exceeding it's targets again I believe) its not exactly rocket science to conclude that the Treasury is broke.......
"Critics immediately pointed out that Britain was already due to be paid the rebate and insisted that the Government is effectively still paying £1.7billion.
Downing Street denied these claims and said that there was no "legal certainty" from the EU that the rebate would apply to the budget bill.
Downing Street said the bill had been halved because Britain’s rebate from Brussels is now being applied to the bill."
"Mr Osborne said: "Instead of footing the bill, we have halved the bill, we have delayed the bill, we will pay no interest on the bill and if there are mistakes in the bill we will get our money back.
"We’ve also changed permanently the rules of the European Union so this never happens again."
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago @CarlWil35586309@MikkiL@LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
Farage defending the traditional British right to commit murder.
Yeah, right. I suppose that's the kind of British values UKIP want to celebrate.
Presumably UKIP would take the same view if, say, evidence came to light of an Argentinian officer killing a wounded British soldier in cold-blood.
You are a miserable fool, Nabavi. Your words show how twisted your mind is.
Richard is right. Farage is mistaken on this. It was a cold-blooded killing and the British should hold themselves to a higher standard.
Off topic, for the lunchtime crowd, here's my piece from this morning looking at how all the various constituency markets fit together and their implications for the overall general election result:
A very comprehensive and impressive piece of work antifrank and an excellent betting reference guide for punters such as myself I would suggest. It's remarkable how you find the time and enthusiasm to collate all this information in so much detail and in such an orderly fashion. Taken together well worthy of the 2014 POTY award in my view, no doubt about it.
That's very kind of you, but to be honest I do it mainly for myself so that I can make sure I'm not making silly bets by accident (I sometimes make silly bets on purpose...) Having done the work, I put it online so that if I've made any obvious mistakes other people can point them out to me.
This last week my other half has been in northern Ireland, so I've had a fair amount of free time in the evenings and first thing in the morning. There will probably be a period of relative quiet for a week or two after this bout of activity.
I think if that is true that is worse than having to fork out £1.7 billion..
Takes a special kind of curmudgeon (Fraser Nelson) to invent a reason so fatuous as this.
With the Treasury borrowing £100 billion a year (and recently exceeding it's targets again I believe) its not exactly rocket science to conclude that the Treasury is broke.......
Well reintroducing the spare room subsidy (Kipper policy) is not going to help.
Comments
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_former_treasurer_to_mount_legal_challenge_to_european_arrest_warrant
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/nov/07/labours-great-escape-faces-gruesome-finale
Nil.
Little Englanders do not like 'Johnny English' being locked up in other countries - after all our own justice system is beyond compere.
I'm sure you can get on just fine without a left-wing Geordie anyways.
Oh, and have the Blairites got back in their box yet? As I said here around 4 years ago, Ed's big decision will be whether or not he wants to seek a third term as PM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29956289
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/christopher-howarth-the-eaw-we-should-cooperate-with-our-eu-neighbours-but-why-should-we-join-a-eu-criminal-justice-system.html
According to BBC.
Well done. But the problem is that many people don't want the UK to pay anything!
Bill halved, payable in two instalments next year, rules permanently changed, no interest payable and rebate fully intact.
Pretty sure it was mostly Tory from the 1960s to 1997. However, the council has gone strongly back Labour in recent years from being Tory controlled under Gordon Brown as PM, and I can't see David Nuttall holding on, particularly with a UKIP onslaught and they are likely to pick up many votes. The Ashcroft polling in Bury N was not good this week either.
(Incidentally, I moved to the bottom end of Bury a couple of years ago. It was nice to be living in a marginal and Tory-held seat again - until I found out I lived in the only ward in Bury that is not in the misleadingly named "Bury North". So I'm actually in the only bit of Bury in the Labour seat of Bury South (or "Prestwich, Whitefield & Radcliffe" as it should be called), and although it was Tory in the 80s, that has no chance of ever going Tory again! Bugger....)
Osborne just counting in the rebate and other funds that were always going to be a downstream effect of this confected issue.
Wonder if Osborne is about to get hoist by his petard?
on an LBC radio phone-in on Friday morning, Farage said Cameron would have little option but to go along with the demand, which will have to be paid in December.
“Of course he will pay up. These are the rules, the contributions to the European Union was a very complex formula and part of it is a measurement of your GDP against everybody else’s. There’s nothing he can do,” he said.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/24/eu-contribution-cameron-pay-extra-funds-farage
Just asking, since Kippers seem to think it’s UK against a homogenous “EU” nwhere none of the other countries disagree with each other about anything!
Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty·2 mins2 minutes ago
@Spectator_CH @jgforsyth No - bill remains £1.7bn, paid in two halves and UK rebate brought forward a year - hasn't been halved at all.
Sarah Brown @SarahBrownUK 4m4 minutes ago
Proud to sit between two Labour leaders, Neil Kinnock & Ed Miliband, at service to honour Paul Cottingham. Great tributes to a lovely man.
That's the European Union for you: a loss is where you get screwed, a win is where you get half-screwed.
That's the percentage of Labour MPs who backed Ed Miliband in the leadership contest.
That's negotiation. On an aside, I'm finding Osborne an increasingly effective political operator and now wonder if I'd prefer him as next Tory leader to Boris.
If Osborne truly wanted to deflect attention from EdM's plight, then way to go, George!
I smell a great big stinking rat.
I'm willing to say that he will, at most, serve 6 years as PM in the next 10.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446
Is there a poll out there?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott·
I am struck by how very nervous/stressed the Chx looked just now as he announced his "great deal." Is there something fishy about this??
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-ed-miliband-4585961
Must be a Tory rag, mocking him this time.
An armoured column including 32 tanks and 30 trucks has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, Kiev says.
Looks like an invasion and smells like an invasion ...............
You do 'enigmatic' so beautifully.
Just one well placed shell at the bottom would take them all out.
Well done Nigel.
norm morse @normmoo 3m3 minutes ago
@CarlWil35586309 @MikkiL @LBC Fair play to Farage, he is going as far as he can to support "A". No other party leaders have grown a pair.
Did Osborne halve Britain’s EU bill by admitting that growth still leaves him broke?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/did-george-osborne-halve-britains-eu-bill-by-admitting-that-his-growth-is-a-mirage/
I think if that is true that is worse than having to fork out £1.7 billion..
Oh.
This is what Forsyth wrote. That suggests that the amount has been discounted by the application of the usual British rebate rather than McNulty's response.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/osborne-gets-britains-1-7bn-bill-halved-and-no-payments-before-the-election/
All I will say is I haven't seen any embargoed polls.
So I've merely speculated.
Lab 4.1
Con 5.9
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Not since Agincourt or Waterloo has an Englishman gone to mainland Europe and given the Europeans such a trashing.
Stunning victory.
Whoever is in government in 2016 may well have a live issue to return to with rebate negotiations, so it all depends on who people vote for in May 2015 and, indirectly, whether a referendum is set to be held.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/get-ready-world-ukraine-being-torn-shreds-11611?page=show
Serious analysis of why Ukraine is between a rock and a hard place.
In particular the rebate was much higher before Blair gave it away so would be a significant saving on tne original calculation.
However my question was, if the was a warrant out for someone in Poland for something which wasn’t a crime in Britain whether our Police would be expected to arrest someone who’d fled here?
Why oh why weren't Cameron and Osborne just honest about what was going on rather than immediately lurching into the preposterous anti EU butch and macho mode of the last week or so?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049
2010-Con > UKIP is larger than 2010-LD > Labour.
No wonder they can't get their accounts signed off. They were probably presented in crayon.
Yeah, right. I suppose that's the kind of British values UKIP want to celebrate.
Presumably UKIP would take the same view if, say, evidence came to light of an Argentinian officer killing a wounded British soldier in cold-blood.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpqeMY1A9C8&
What you're witnessing is a shift from the focus on P&L to one on cashflow.
Edit: which means I'm more in agreement with Farage! Hell hath frozen over!
Wellington:, "By God, sir, so you have!"
Consequently I think that explanation is bollocks.
And you, Sir? And Mr Farage?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049#comments
Anyway, surely, surely Osborne isn't so stupid as to give this the full smoke and mirrors treatment. He must know that it would unravel by tea-time and he'd look like a total putz. Surely.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11216465/George-Osborne-Britain-to-pay-half-of-disputed-European-Union-1.7billion-bill.html
"Critics immediately pointed out that Britain was already due to be paid the rebate and insisted that the Government is effectively still paying £1.7billion.
Downing Street denied these claims and said that there was no "legal certainty" from the EU that the rebate would apply to the budget bill.
Downing Street said the bill had been halved because Britain’s rebate from Brussels is now being applied to the bill."
"Mr Osborne said: "Instead of footing the bill, we have halved the bill, we have delayed the bill, we will pay no interest on the bill and if there are mistakes in the bill we will get our money back.
"We’ve also changed permanently the rules of the European Union so this never happens again."
This last week my other half has been in northern Ireland, so I've had a fair amount of free time in the evenings and first thing in the morning. There will probably be a period of relative quiet for a week or two after this bout of activity.
Cripes !