By wins for LAB in the byelections – politicalbetting.com

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

Messy, fickle, going from partner to partner, inconsistent and somewhat manic?

Seems like a great predictive record.

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.

Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.

There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.

Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.

It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.

He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.

Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?

The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.

Voters are in a fickle mood.

So the worse that the Tories make public services, the higher the Tory vote at the election?

The worse the public services the quicker Labour will pick up the blame.

Thats politics.

We're talking *before* the election - you said Starmer could fail to win a majority. I asked what would collapse the lead and make people vote Tory and you're saying its because *Keir Starmer* in opposition will get the blame for Tories trashing public services?

In your excitement you werent that clear.

So what could make him fall short ? Events dear boy, we werent expecting a Middle East meltdown two weeks ago. It could go anywhere atm. Swingback where voters start looking at what is of offer and change the polls. No sealing the deal - Starmer is just mush to voters. Lib Dems or SNP do better and take lots of seats forcing the need for a coalition.

Im sure you can think of others yourself, however I must now head off for a break in the West Country, the other half really chose a good one. Have a good morning.

You are moving away from the storm, so it really was a good choice!

stodge said:

El_Capitano said:

It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.

And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?

I've been harsh on Sunak in the past and I once said he was a man who had never failed at anything or had known defeat. If you go into politics there's a fair chance that will change.

It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.

The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?

Thatcher was still a major figure in politics and dominated her party over ten years after being PM

Politics Joe on fine form:

https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1715251166441775197?s=20

OldBasing said:

The Reform vote in both by-elections interests me. Is this a cohort of voters than can be squeezed with the right policies back into the Tory column, or is it, and I fear this may be true, a cohort of voters who don't want to vote for a party led by an PM of Indian heritage. We would all rightly abhor the racism, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that some of the Reform vote isn't salvagable for Con for that reason.

I did allude to this in my comment the other day:

"I live not a million miles from Tamworth and pop over there regularly. While it's regarded as more down-to-earth than snooty Lichfield (the one-time ecclesiastical capital of Mercia, next town along Watling Street) it actually surprises with the pleasantness of the castle grounds and nearby shopping streets. Nevertheless, it is very white working class and, I'd say, pretty socially conservative. It's a big hill to climb for Labour, but the combination of a non-white, remote prime minister and Chris Pincher's antics might just be enough to get them over the line."

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4574195#Comment_4574195

The good performance of the far-right parties in Tamworth was, sadly, not a great surprise to me.

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

El_Capitano said:

It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.

And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?

I've been harsh on Sunak in the past and I once said he was a man who had never failed at anything or had known defeat. If you go into politics there's a fair chance that will change.

It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.

The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?

Thatcher was still a major figure in politics and dominated her party over ten years after being PM

Yes but she seems so far to be the exception, doesn't she?

Major was Prime Minister for six and a half years, Cameron for six and yet neither seems to have the influence or legacy Thatcher had. The likes of Brown, May and Truss are already starting to look like footnotes as well.

Contrast perhaps with William Hague who, despite never becoming PM, remains an elder statesman figure of some influence.

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

So who wins the prediction competition then? Not displeased with my effort, but I've a feeling Nick Palmer was bang on.

He didn't post in the prediction thread.

Not, Nick, then!

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Clearly bad results for the Tories in both seats with big swings to Labour. Starmer will be pleased to gain both seats which suggests he is heading for No 10.

LDs will be disappointed not to have come closer in Mid Bedfordshire. Reform will be pleased with third in Tamworth

Greg Hands pointed out the Labour vote was down in Mid Beds from the GE.

It's so desperate and disingenuous.

People aren't stupid. They know by-election turnouts are always lower (44% at that one).

Instead of scrabbling around for stupid crumbs of comfort, the Conservatives in power should start getting honest with themselves. They're heading for evisceration. And the more they double down, the worse it will be.

Scott_xP said:

no government has ever lost so safe a seat as Tamworth — where the Tories’ majority in 2019 was 42 per cent — to its principal opponents. Hitherto that record was held by the Ashfield by-election when the Labour government at the time was unsuccessful in defending a 41 per cent majority against a challenge from the Conservatives.

Tamworth was Labour in 1997

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldBasing said:

The Reform vote in both by-elections interests me. Is this a cohort of voters than can be squeezed with the right policies back into the Tory column, or is it, and I fear this may be true, a cohort of voters who don't want to vote for a party led by an PM of Indian heritage. We would all rightly abhor the racism, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that some of the Reform vote isn't salvagable for Con for that reason.

I don't think those are the two alternatives. The most likely reason they won't be squeezed is they neither trust the Tories to do anything they say, nor believe they are in any way competant enough to do it even if they want to. It is a view shared by the majority of the country and the main defining characteristic of Reform voters as opposed to Labour or Lib Dems is they don't trust those parties either.

I think there are lots of things at work but there is something about Sunak that some right of centre voters took against immediately. If you look at the Wiki wiggly line there was an immediate 3pp rise in RefUK support at the very moment Sunak became PM. Not at the time of the Truss debacle, not at the time of Partygate, and not gradually over the course of Sunak's premiership. It's not a massive cohort of people, it's certainly not a majority of Tory-inclined voters by any means, but unfortunately I do think that an element of racism is probably at work and contributing to the Tories' current unpopularity (maybe they just object to his wealth? Possibly, I doubt it).

Cookie said:

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

So who wins the prediction competition then? Not displeased with my effort, but I've a feeling Nick Palmer was bang on.

He didn't post in the prediction thread.

Not, Nick, then!

Cookie went: Lab 31 Con 29 LD 23 Others 17

I went Lab 31 Con 29 LD 20 Others 20

Result was 34/31/23/12

Was Cookie closest?

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

I think 1997 redux is coming. I don’t think it will be worse (albeit from a worse start point for Labour and better for the Tories. I think a lot of people attribute too much to swings in bye elections with pitiful turnouts.
If I were an ambitious young Tory right now I’d be thinking about how to change what the party is offering the nation. The old reputation for economic competence, if it was ever deserved or real, is gone. So what then is the point of a conservative government?

The voters are well ahead of them in answering that question.

Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses.

A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems.

Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone.

So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories?

A few points.

1. LOL.

2. LOL

3. SKS fans please explain.

4. @theakes LOL

5. @bigjohnowls LOL

6. Bllx. I lost my bet on the Tories in Mid Beds. Congratulations to those on the other side of the wager who took my money. Kudos to @Heathener and @Casino_Royale for backing the double.

Picking up my winnings on Lab in Bedforshire.

Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
Israel is going to evacuate the city of Kiryat Shmona on its northern border with Lebanon, which is home to more than 20,000 people.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

We DID enter his era. It was an utter disaster. Nobody conceived that a Tory majority of 80 would be followed by a Labour majority of 80 - if the Tories are lucky.

The Tories wouldn't be losing Tamworth with him as leader.

They would.

Boris Johnson's modus operandi doesn't work, I've seen the focus groups on him now.

Lest we forget this whole byelection was why Boris Johnson was ousted.

He put a known sexual predator in a position of authority then lied about it, the voters hate that.

I'm not so sure. Tamworth is very much white van man territory, and the defining characteristic of a politician they'd vote for is someone they'd like to have a couple of pints with. Johnson always projected that air of bonhomie that they found attractive to the extent that they'd overlook his sexual peccadilloes, laziness and lying. After all, none of us are perfect are we? But they won't vote for someone as alien to them as Sunak.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

We DID enter his era. It was an utter disaster. Nobody conceived that a Tory majority of 80 would be followed by a Labour majority of 80 - if the Tories are lucky.

The Tories wouldn't be losing Tamworth with him as leader.

They would.

Boris Johnson's modus operandi doesn't work, I've seen the focus groups on him now.

Lest we forget this whole byelection was why Boris Johnson was ousted.

He put a known sexual predator in a position of authority then lied about it, the voters hate that.

I'm not so sure. Tamworth is very much white van man territory, and the defining characteristic of a politician they'd vote for is someone they'd like to have a couple of pints with. Johnson always projected that air of bonhomie that they found attractive to the extent that they'd overlook his sexual peccadilloes, laziness and lying. After all, none of us are perfect are we? But they won't vote for someone as alien to them as Sunak.

Or Starmer?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldBasing said:

The Reform vote in both by-elections interests me. Is this a cohort of voters than can be squeezed with the right policies back into the Tory column, or is it, and I fear this may be true, a cohort of voters who don't want to vote for a party led by an PM of Indian heritage. We would all rightly abhor the racism, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that some of the Reform vote isn't salvagable for Con for that reason.

I don't think those are the two alternatives. The most likely reason they won't be squeezed is they neither trust the Tories to do anything they say, nor believe they are in any way competant enough to do it even if they want to. It is a view shared by the majority of the country and the main defining characteristic of Reform voters as opposed to Labour or Lib Dems is they don't trust those parties either.

I think there are lots of things at work but there is something about Sunak that some right of centre voters took against immediately. If you look at the Wiki wiggly line there was an immediate 3pp rise in RefUK support at the very moment Sunak became PM. Not at the time of the Truss debacle, not at the time of Partygate, and not gradually over the course of Sunak's premiership. It's not a massive cohort of people, it's certainly not a majority of Tory-inclined voters by any means, but unfortunately I do think that an element of racism is probably at work and contributing to the Tories' current unpopularity (maybe they just object to his wealth? Possibly, I doubt it).

Nah. That change to Reform was a reaction to the ousting of Truss by someone who had, only a few weeks before, lost to her in the members vote. As someone who wouldn't have voted for either of them I did find it remarkable just how poor Sunak was in the campaign for leadership. At the time I pointed out how patronising and sneering he was of his opponent. Never a good look. If it had been Patel or Braverman rather than Sunak I am pretty siure you would not have seen that shift to Reform. Though you may well have seen a shift on the other wing towards Labour or the Lib Dems.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?

The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.

Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.

It isn't for the Tories core vote and after they lost even Mid Bedfordshire the Tories first job is to win that back

Clearly you haven't seen the condition of the roads in any areas outside your enclave.

Equally tax cuts aren't going to win votes from people who have had friends/relatives waiting 18 hours in A&E....

Given that the UK has a massive backlog of infrastructure spending that it has been putting off for decades, a huge amount of ongoing government borrowing and no quick wins on operational spending left, the idea that there can be tax cuts is simply for the birds.

The way that the Conservative right are pushing for them and the Conservative centre aren't really pushing back, is a sign of what a mess they're in.

eek said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

My prediction even before the 2019 election was that Bozo would be the last ever Tory Prime Minister.

Now technically I'm wrong on that prediction because Bozo has left and we are on the second post Bozo PM but the argument still stands - having won and implemented Brexit the consequences of doing so will destroy the party once and for all.

If that were to occur please could we have a radical centre right party that believed in investment, meritocracy and hard work, embracing technology, good relations with our neighbours and broadly neutral on the woke stuff?

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.

Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.

There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.

Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.

It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.

He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.

Given the Boomer Ascendancy, an age of 67/68 in 2029ish will not hurt Starmer. If Trump wins in 2024 Trump will be 83 in 2029.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?

The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.

Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.

It isn't for the Tories core vote and after they lost even Mid Bedfordshire the Tories first job is to win that back

Anyone who thinks Tamworth and Mid Beds will not be (maybe only) 2 Blue Tory Gains when there is a proper GE turnout are in for a shock Selby too probably.

jamesdoyle said:

Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses.

A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems.

Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone.

So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories?

Well done the LDs? ".... my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances....."?? Get a grip on reality.

The fall in the Conservative vote share was much the same in both constituencies, 28% in Mid Beds and 25% in Tamworth. Your idea that the LDs somehow aided Labour in mid Beds by causing a collapse in the Conservative vote that otherwise wouldn't have happened doesn't hold water.

What the LDs did do was to badly split the anti-Conservative vote by spending much of the campaign trying to talk down Labour's chances, with blatantly false claims about being set to win and the usual false bar charts even in the face of polling that pointed to the opposite, and highly personal attacks on the Labour candidate. They were desperate to come out ahead of Labour. Some people fell for it but overall the LDs still failed badly. The idea that the LDs somehow helped Labour to win is risible. Labour won in spite of their best efforts.

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

My prediction even before the 2019 election was that Bozo would be the last ever Tory Prime Minister.

Now technically I'm wrong on that prediction because Bozo has left and we are on the second post Bozo PM but the argument still stands - having won and implemented Brexit the consequences of doing so will destroy the party once and for all.

If that were to occur please could we have a radical centre right party that believed in investment, meritocracy and hard work, embracing technology, good relations with our neighbours and broadly neutral on the woke stuff?

Step forward Lib Dems, your time is now?

Stocky said:

Cookie said:

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

So who wins the prediction competition then? Not displeased with my effort, but I've a feeling Nick Palmer was bang on.

He didn't post in the prediction thread.

Not, Nick, then!

Cookie went: Lab 31 Con 29 LD 23 Others 17

I went Lab 31 Con 29 LD 20 Others 20

Result was 34/31/23/12

Was Cookie closest?

@JosiasJessop Lab: 32/29/25/14

Anabobazina said:

A few points.

1. LOL.

2. LOL

3. SKS fans please explain.

4. @theakes LOL

5. @bigjohnowls LOL

6. Bllx. I lost my bet on the Tories in Mid Beds. Congratulations to those on the other side of the wager who took my money. Kudos to @Heathener and @Casino_Royale for backing the double.

5 Thanks Lots of Love ❤️ to you too.

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

I will go to my dying day that he was right. If COVID had not happened we would be looking at a second Conservative victory in May 2024. It did and Boris has gone, but if it hadn't...

Selebian said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

My prediction even before the 2019 election was that Bozo would be the last ever Tory Prime Minister.

Now technically I'm wrong on that prediction because Bozo has left and we are on the second post Bozo PM but the argument still stands - having won and implemented Brexit the consequences of doing so will destroy the party once and for all.

If that were to occur please could we have a radical centre right party that believed in investment, meritocracy and hard work, embracing technology, good relations with our neighbours and broadly neutral on the woke stuff?

Step forward Lib Dems, your time is now?

They are the party I am probably closest to currently but not convinced they are committed to/radical enough on investment and embracing technology. And on the woke stuff they are woke rather than neutral, which is fine for me personally but severely limits the size of their potential voter base.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Well, I made a good decision and a bad one.

The good decision, early on, was to back the Tories in Mid-Beds at 3.5.

The bad decision, yesterday, was not to lay off the bet at below Evens.

Never be ashamed to take a small profit... ☹️

TheScreamingEagles said:

Two numbers to focus on if you think a landslide is on.

271

and

202.

271 was the number of seats Labour won in 1992

202 was the number of seats Labour won in 2019.

Labour start much further behind now than they did in 1997.

#CorbynsToxicLegacy

For the cautious who think the Tories need a bit of time to go away and read Edmund Burke, but think we may be at Peak Starmer this morning, two more figures:

41: The number of seats the Tories need to lose to lose absolute control over the formation of the next government

51 (give or take one or two): The number of seats the Tories need to lose to lose actual control over the formation of the next government.

This is so much fewer than the 123 seats Labour need to win to have a majority that these numbers could well come into play. It also puts into play an infinity of permutations and possibilities to keep us entertained for the next year.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.

There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)

With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.

I think people are getting slightly ahead of themselves on Powell testifying against Trump.

Strictly, her plea deal only directly implicates another co-defendant, Misty Hampton, with whom she admits to conspiring to unlawfully access voting machines in Coffee County. She'd certainly be called to give evidence against Hampton because, by definition with conspiracy, at least one other person is involved and Hampton is named. That's if Hampton doesn't also flip, which I strongly suspect she will as this pulls the rug from under her and she's a minor player who'd get a good deal.

But it may be Powell's position that Trump was not involved and this was her acting on his behalf but without his knowledge, so prosecutors will be careful about how to play this as her testimony could, but may not, implicate Trump.

What it does do is move the jeopardy closer to Trump. The man who will really be sweating initiially (with all the hair dye implications that involves) is Rudy Guliani as I understand there are emails indicating he was involved in the Coffee County breach. Although he's not named in the plea deal documents, I think it'd be really hard for Powell to not implicate Giuliani in testimony.

Powell will have been quizzed for up to ten hours on what she will say regarding Trump.

If it wasn't worth it, Powell wouldn't have got this deal.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cookie said:

Completely off thread - but my wife and I have been discussing Blue Peter viewing figures, which when we were kids were about 6 million and are now about 30,000; indeed there was an episode a few years back which got no viewers at all (though I have my doubts about the accuracy of these figures). Anyway, we were interrupted by our 8 year old daughter: "what even is Blue Peter?". Which kind of illustrates the point. Kids don't watch live telly any more. (This has come about quite suddenly; my older two, 13 and 12, don't watch live telly either, but do at least remember doing so; my youngest never really has).

This makes me very sad. My kids don't watch it either.
I do think my kids are much less well informed about the world than I was at their age - I picked a lot of stuff up without trying just by watching whatever was on TV. It's hard to have a vibrant well informed democracy when people know SFA about the world around them and get their information from sources that are vulnerable to disinformation campaigns.

And yet a 5 year old Octonaut fan probably already knows more than our generation ever did about marine life. Swings and roundabouts.

I hope the Liberals will learn their lesson from this. Don’t run at seats where you are third. I think they should target 30-40 seats at the GE, no more.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cookie said:

Completely off thread - but my wife and I have been discussing Blue Peter viewing figures, which when we were kids were about 6 million and are now about 30,000; indeed there was an episode a few years back which got no viewers at all (though I have my doubts about the accuracy of these figures). Anyway, we were interrupted by our 8 year old daughter: "what even is Blue Peter?". Which kind of illustrates the point. Kids don't watch live telly any more. (This has come about quite suddenly; my older two, 13 and 12, don't watch live telly either, but do at least remember doing so; my youngest never really has).

This makes me very sad. My kids don't watch it either.
I do think my kids are much less well informed about the world than I was at their age - I picked a lot of stuff up without trying just by watching whatever was on TV. It's hard to have a vibrant well informed democracy when people know SFA about the world around them and get their information from sources that are vulnerable to disinformation campaigns.

There's good stuff still being made- both by the BBC and others. That includes online- it was good to see Map Men get a plug in the Sunday Times this weekend.

What's been lost has been the shared institutions that everyone knew about and most people watched. That atomisation isn't great for society or shared conversations, but somehow it's worse for children. The loss of general interest programmes as the only kids thing on means that some improve themselves a lot and others watch utter trash and nothing else.

In education, it's the Matthew Principle- to he who has shall be given more but to get who has not, what they have shall be taken away.

viewcode said:

carnforth said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

"We are entering the Boris Johnson Era"

George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.

It's not a great predictive record.

I will go to my dying day that he was right. If COVID had not happened we would be looking at a second Conservative victory in May 2024. It did and Boris has gone, but if it hadn't...

Not convinced, though Boris undoubtedly was touched with genius and at the time looked good for 10 years. Without Covid he would still have fallen because of his astonishing lack of personal self control and inability to surround himself with the right long term advisers, and his total failure, having led us to Brexit, to envision what it might be about.

In so many other ways he was a centrist Tory with a compassionate politics.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.

There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)

With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.

I think people are getting slightly ahead of themselves on Powell testifying against Trump.

Strictly, her plea deal only directly implicates another co-defendant, Misty Hampton, with whom she admits to conspiring to unlawfully access voting machines in Coffee County. She'd certainly be called to give evidence against Hampton because, by definition with conspiracy, at least one other person is involved and Hampton is named. That's if Hampton doesn't also flip, which I strongly suspect she will as this pulls the rug from under her and she's a minor player who'd get a good deal.

But it may be Powell's position that Trump was not involved and this was her acting on his behalf but without his knowledge, so prosecutors will be careful about how to play this as her testimony could, but may not, implicate Trump.

What it does do is move the jeopardy closer to Trump. The man who will really be sweating initiially (with all the hair dye implications that involves) is Rudy Guliani as I understand there are emails indicating he was involved in the Coffee County breach. Although he's not named in the plea deal documents, I think it'd be really hard for Powell to not implicate Giuliani in testimony.

In which case may I propose a pardon for Giuliani? I may abhor the attempted coup and his part in it, but I really, really do not want to see more of him sweating.

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?

The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.

Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.

It isn't for the Tories core vote and after they lost even Mid Bedfordshire the Tories first job is to win that back

Clearly you haven't seen the condition of the roads in any areas outside your enclave.

Equally tax cuts aren't going to win votes from people who have had friends/relatives waiting 18 hours in A&E....

Given that the UK has a massive backlog of infrastructure spending that it has been putting off for decades, a huge amount of ongoing government borrowing and no quick wins on operational spending left, the idea that there can be tax cuts is simply for the birds.

The way that the Conservative right are pushing for them and the Conservative centre aren't really pushing back, is a sign of what a mess they're in.

What Tory Centre - Bozo removed the vocal bit that cared in Summer / Autumn 19...

What's left is a set of quiet nobodies enjoying their time at Westminster until they retire after the next election...

As someone with a Canadian accent once said: "A truly terrible night for the Tories"

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?

The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.

Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.

It isn't for the Tories core vote and after they lost even Mid Bedfordshire the Tories first job is to win that back

Clearly you haven't seen the condition of the roads in any areas outside your enclave.

Equally tax cuts aren't going to win votes from people who have had friends/relatives waiting 18 hours in A&E....

So what, those voters want higher spending and high tax and will be voting Labour anyway.

The Conservatives need to focus on getting the right back united behind them first and that means getting the deficit and inflation down further so there is room for a manifesto commitment for tax cuts

RochdalePioneers said:

Reading the Informed Sources email this morning there is more trouble brewing in the world of Transport.

On one hand we have train builders with no orders. On the other hand we have trains full and standing. The Tories sit resolute in the middle telling everyone how they're definitely the good guys spending money.

Alstom Derby only has a few months of orders left. The design studio has work but nothing to build from early 2024 - so likely closure and job losses unless something is done to bridge the gap.

Hitachi has an extra year of orders but even they are stuck beyond that. Meanwhile the government refuses to do anything to replace failing old trains or building new trains to add capacity.

Northern has announced a tender for new trains but not until 2027 at the earliest with a spec that keeps being changed by the government. And despite LNER and Lumo being full and standing, and expensive capacity upgrade work having been carried out to provide power for more trains, LNER have been ordered to bin much of their old fleet.

So although @Alanbrooke is insistent that events will swing votes back to the Tories, I have to scratch my head and wonder why it won't be to swing even more votes away.

The other crisis brewing is in local government. Watch more councils go effectively bankrupt…

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cookie said:

Completely off thread - but my wife and I have been discussing Blue Peter viewing figures, which when we were kids were about 6 million and are now about 30,000; indeed there was an episode a few years back which got no viewers at all (though I have my doubts about the accuracy of these figures). Anyway, we were interrupted by our 8 year old daughter: "what even is Blue Peter?". Which kind of illustrates the point. Kids don't watch live telly any more. (This has come about quite suddenly; my older two, 13 and 12, don't watch live telly either, but do at least remember doing so; my youngest never really has).

This makes me very sad. My kids don't watch it either.
I do think my kids are much less well informed about the world than I was at their age - I picked a lot of stuff up without trying just by watching whatever was on TV. It's hard to have a vibrant well informed democracy when people know SFA about the world around them and get their information from sources that are vulnerable to disinformation campaigns.

And yet a 5 year old Octonaut fan probably already knows more than our generation ever did about marine life. Swings and roundabouts.

That is true, we are all big Octonauts fans in our house!

MarqueeMark said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.

There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)

With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.

I think people are getting slightly ahead of themselves on Powell testifying against Trump.

Strictly, her plea deal only directly implicates another co-defendant, Misty Hampton, with whom she admits to conspiring to unlawfully access voting machines in Coffee County. She'd certainly be called to give evidence against Hampton because, by definition with conspiracy, at least one other person is involved and Hampton is named. That's if Hampton doesn't also flip, which I strongly suspect she will as this pulls the rug from under her and she's a minor player who'd get a good deal.

But it may be Powell's position that Trump was not involved and this was her acting on his behalf but without his knowledge, so prosecutors will be careful about how to play this as her testimony could, but may not, implicate Trump.

What it does do is move the jeopardy closer to Trump. The man who will really be sweating initiially (with all the hair dye implications that involves) is Rudy Guliani as I understand there are emails indicating he was involved in the Coffee County breach. Although he's not named in the plea deal documents, I think it'd be really hard for Powell to not implicate Giuliani in testimony.

Powell will have been quizzed for up to ten hours on what she will say regarding Trump.

If it wasn't worth it, Powell wouldn't have got this deal.

There are two reasons it could be worth it for prosecutors without Powell directly implicating Trump.

Firstly, it moves the jeopardy closer to Trump, because it is quite likely Giuliani is implicated - Powell was part of Giuliani's team, but Guliani was the team leader with direct access to Trump.

Secondly, Powell was due to go on trial imminently (jury selection today I think) along with Ken Chesebro, as they had exercised right to expedited trial. Prosecutors are somewhat keen to avoid this tactically as it provides a useful preview for Trump's team. Chesebro has reportedly turned down a deal on his alleged fake electors scam, but Powell no longer going to trial limits scope.

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

"Armageddon is coming for the Conservatives"

George Osborne, former Chancellor.

I think 1997 redux is coming. I don’t think it will be worse (albeit from a worse start point for Labour and better for the Tories. I think a lot of people attribute too much to swings in bye elections with pitiful turnouts.
If I were an ambitious young Tory right now I’d be thinking about how to change what the party is offering the nation. The old reputation for economic competence, if it was ever deserved or real, is gone. So what then is the point of a conservative government?

I hope there are also ambitious young Tories who are willing to honestly reflect on their failures in government.

Take housing, for example. Osborne introduced Help to Buy in 2013. It was billed as the largest intervention in the housing market since Right to Buy. So why is there still a housing crisis? What went wrong?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

jamesdoyle said:

Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses.

A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems.

Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone.

So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories?

Well done the LDs? ".... my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances....."?? Get a grip on reality.

The fall in the Conservative vote share was much the same in both constituencies, 28% in Mid Beds and 25% in Tamworth. Your idea that the LDs somehow aided Labour in mid Beds by causing a collapse in the Conservative vote that otherwise wouldn't have happened doesn't hold water.

What the LDs did do was to badly split the anti-Conservative vote by spending much of the campaign trying to talk down Labour's chances, with blatantly false claims about being set to win and the usual false bar charts even in the face of polling that pointed to the opposite, and highly personal attacks on the Labour candidate. They were desperate to come out ahead of Labour. Some people fell for it but overall the LDs still failed badly. The idea that the LDs somehow helped Labour to win is risible. Labour won in spite of their best efforts.

Did I say that the LibDems helped Labour? No I didn't although it's an interesting argument. My view is that for the LibDems, the result is qualified good ones.
You're a Labour partisan, and you've got every right to be delighted with your results. But you've been repeating the same stuff over and over all night. That's fine, but it gets a bit stale.
The Tories got beaten badly, and I'm very happy about that. Going to enjoy the GE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Newcastle United have signed a multimillion pound sponsorship deal with Saudi Airlines.

"This is a fantastic deal for the club," said Newcastle owner, Mohammed bin Salman.

"I totally agree," said Saudi Airlines owner Mohammed bin Salman.

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1715252341786530094

I’m sure the fans will all be queueing up for that daily dry flight from Newcastle to Riyadh.

Exc with @patrickkmaguire

Officials have warned cabinet ministers that holding a general election while the US also went to the polls would come with “huge” security risks

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/url-uk-general-election-us-presidential-security-risks-2024-7q8zstbth

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

More on Broken Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.

Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?

The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.

Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.

It isn't for the Tories core vote and after they lost even Mid Bedfordshire the Tories first job is to win that back

Actually the proportion of voters, even ex Tory voters, who are affected by Inheritance Tax is utterly miniscule.

The proportion of voters affected by taxes like National Insurance, Income Tax, VAT, the state of our roads, education, NHS, courts, Police, crime and criminals being released back on the streets as prisons are full and much more is far higher.

If the Tories want to be a party that pander only to those who don't work for a living and want to live off handouts and inheritance instead then so be it. They deserve to be on 5% in the polls if so.

In Mid Bedfordshire even the average house is now over the inheritance tax threshold

we’re still ahead in the polls!!!

nobody cares about Barnard Castle

nobody cares about Partygate

we won’t lose that many seats at the local elections

we’ll hold on to Tiverton

bojo will win bigly in 2024! 5 more years

We’ll get a boost in the polls when Liz is appointed leader

we’ll hang on to Tamworth and Mid Beds

All these voters will come back at the GE when inflation comes down, mark my words!


(Yes, yes, I know, shortest flounce in history)