The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
That's the thing I take out of the results, Reform, or whatever you want to call them, could really damage the Tories, surely a lot of these voters, voted Tory in 2019, there is something else though, the worrying amount of people willing to back far right party's, I include the Tory party in its current state, when the electorate perceive Labour has failed, (poisoned chalice, if ever there was one) the 2029 could be a truly frightening election
LDs will be philosophical about mid beds, but in Tamworth, 6th on 1.6% behind 3 fascist parties is a bit grim. As is a fascist vote of over 9%
Meh. When you don't run and everyone is voting for the other ABC choice, it isn't a surprise.
I do agree with the concern about the size of the hard right vote. Not because it will grow any more, but because of what it means for politics when the governing party is this desperate and this stupid.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
People vote for different parties for all sorts of different reasons. Many of those RefUK/UKIP/Britain First voters won’t vote for the Tories for the same reason that all those switchers to Labour won’t vote for the Tories: because the country is in a bad state after 13 years of Tories in No. 10.
There will be Con/RefUK swing voters who you can get to vote Tory with some extra anti-immigration rhetoric. There will be Con/Lab swing voters who you will lose to Labour if you do that. I suspect more of the latter than the former; parties win elections from the centre. But nor can it be denied that there is a segment of the population that will vote for more right-wing parties if they stand. I think the way this really matters is not about the Conservatives tacking to the right, but about how many seats Reform UK choose to stand in. If Reform UK doesn’t stand in as many seats at the general election, a bunch of their voters will vote Con instead.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
People vote for different parties for all sorts of different reasons. Many of those RefUK/UKIP/Britain First voters won’t vote for the Tories for the same reason that all those switchers to Labour won’t vote for the Tories: because the country is in a bad state after 13 years of Tories in No. 10.
There will be Con/RefUK swing voters who you can get to vote Tory with some extra anti-immigration rhetoric. There will be Con/Lab swing voters who you will lose to Labour if you do that. I suspect more of the latter than the former; parties win elections from the centre. But nor can it be denied that there is a segment of the population that will vote for more right-wing parties if they stand. I think the way this really matters is not about the Conservatives tacking to the right, but about how many seats Reform UK choose to stand in. If Reform UK doesn’t stand in as many seats at the general election, a bunch of their voters will vote Con instead.
Their current position is they will stand in them all ecluding NI. Whether they have the candidates and resources to do that may be another matter.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
RefUK's vote share in the polling went up about 3pp when Sunak became PM. I don't think it takes a genius to work out what happened there. I suspect that the Tories have forfeited a small but not immaterial chunk of their support as long as he is their leader, no matter what batshit right wing nonsense he comes up with in an effort to win them back.
Patel was the hard right talisman of stopping the darkies. Now it is Braverman. And yet the hard right splinter vote continues to vote for some mysterious reason...
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
I’m less worried about the fascist vote count in Tamworth than others (and less worried about the LD vote share too).
Put it in context: in a by-election in a seat with historically quite high right wing party votes, at a time when voters are disillusioned with the government and in a by-election which is a free vote, hard right / fash parties only managed 9%. Yet nationally Refuk is supposedly polling 6-9%. That suggests their appeal is very limited.
As for the Lib Dems, it is a further sign of the unspoken electoral pact with Labour working well. Mid Beds was an interesting test and will hopefully prevent us from overextending into less fruitful areas come the GE.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?
The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.
Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.
And all of that will continue as Starmer hasnt any more money than Sunak and then instead of inheritance tax he'll throw his own petrol on the fire by jailing people for using the wrong pronoun.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Cameron was right that the country is not Twitter, not that the media notices.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
Yes, the reason the Conservatives lost Tamworth was because of a lack of investment in roads. It was not because of the cost of living, decay of the NHS, Partygate, Chris Pincher’s behaviour and Peter Bone’s behaviour, Brexit, delays in the court system, cuts in local government services, Liz Truss, the mishandling of the pandemic, failures on immigration, higher taxes, and flip-flopping on HS2.
Well done for completely missing the point.
It's interesting that you see those as alternatives, rather than a failure to invest in the roads being one of the multiple other failures as well.
Especially since you incorporated HS2 in your second list and as we've established that affects far fewer voters.
A failure to invest in roads, or charging infrastructure, while jacking up taxes, is just another in the litany of failures to add to your list. If you can get over your pathological hatred of investing in transportation.
For the frequent critics of planning on here, I was interested to read this article in the New York Post which can be fairly described as being in awe of the english planning system.
A New Yorker can only be amazed at the relatively smooth and rancor-free sail that Canada Water enjoyed through a rational approval process that mocks the Big Apple’s tortuous land-use ordeals.
...
Too many New Yorkers who call themselves progressive but are in fact reactionary would rather the city never change at all.
Requests for a zoning change to add a few stories onto an old building trigger howls over “gentrification,” environmental nitpicking, and bureaucratic heel-dragging.
To say nothing of outright sabotage — such as by City Council members who have torpedoed worthy projects in Harlem and Brooklyn’s Sunset Park out of sheer spite.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Of course we do - its called CAPITALISM. Aren't you lost supposed to be supporters of capitalism? Borrow. Invest. Gain a Return on the Investment.
Borrowing for opex = bad Borrowing for capex = good
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
The victor gets to write the history, we saw that after Brown lost. If Starmer wins there will be no love for the Tories, no desire to return to the corruption, chaos and failure of the Tory years that ultimately crashed the economy etc etc.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
Please, BJO, that is not a nice image for this time of the morning.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
I know it’s an unpopular view here, but the Tory MPs should have stuck with Truss.
People may not have liked her ideas, but at least she had ideas and a positive attitude. She should probably have called an election rather than resigned.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Can confirm that air fryer bacon turnovers from yesterday thaw quite well for breakfast at least after one day, and if made from shortcrust pastry ('cos the puff pastry ones never even made the freezer).
Thaw fairly crispily in a lower temp air fryer.
Might be an argument for being on the slight underside of fully cooked, crispiness for the encouragement of.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
RefUK's vote share in the polling went up about 3pp when Sunak became PM. I don't think it takes a genius to work out what happened there. I suspect that the Tories have forfeited a small but not immaterial chunk of their support as long as he is their leader, no matter what batshit right wing nonsense he comes up with in an effort to win them back.
Patel was the hard right talisman of stopping the darkies. Now it is Braverman. And yet the hard right splinter vote continues to vote for some mysterious reason...
Sunak, Patel, Braverman ...
What could be the common factor preventing the hard right from backing them? I give up.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
There's no such things as splits in votes. Said the same about Lab and LD, same is true about Tory and Reform or its ilk.
Lab != Lib Dem Tory != Reform
If they were the same, they'd be getting the same party. There's no way to keep hold of your existing vote and gain another parties vote, if you go for another parties voters you might just end up losing your own . . . while still not being trusted by the other parties voters.
Why would I when the article talks about how criticised the theory is and how it doesn't stand up to British electoral results?
Lab and Lib Dems are not irrelevant alternatives, they are very different alternatives. Which is why their votes aren't the same.
Tory and ReFuk aren't irrelevant alternatives either, they are very different alternatives too.
ReFuk, UKIP, Britain First etc may be irrelevant alternatives to each other, but since they aren't going to win, the emphasis is on the word irrelevant.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Of course we do - its called CAPITALISM. Aren't you lost supposed to be supporters of capitalism? Borrow. Invest. Gain a Return on the Investment.
Borrowing for opex = bad Borrowing for capex = good
we have too much opex and not enough capex and youll scream like a banshee if anyone cuts opex.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
I know it’s an unpopular view here, but the Tory MPs should have stuck with Truss.
People may not have liked her ideas, but at least she had ideas and a positive attitude. She should probably have called an election rather than resigned.
Remember that the Truss government collapsed not because of the markets but because of a confidence vote over fracking.
It wasn't able to function as a government. Lets assume that Truss had decided to tough it out after that debacle - she'd have had the same avalanche of ministerial resignations as shagger had.
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Cameron was right that the country is not Twitter, not that the media notices.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
Yes, the reason the Conservatives lost Tamworth was because of a lack of investment in roads. It was not because of the cost of living, decay of the NHS, Partygate, Chris Pincher’s behaviour and Peter Bone’s behaviour, Brexit, delays in the court system, cuts in local government services, Liz Truss, the mishandling of the pandemic, failures on immigration, higher taxes, and flip-flopping on HS2.
Well done for completely missing the point.
It's interesting that you see those as alternatives, rather than a failure to invest in the roads being one of the multiple other failures as well.
Especially since you incorporated HS2 in your second list and as we've established that affects far fewer voters.
A failure to invest in roads, or charging infrastructure, while jacking up taxes, is just another in the litany of failures to add to your list. If you can get over your pathological hatred of investing in transportation.
Where have I shown a pathological hatred of investing in transportation? I am for investing in transportation. Bring on more charging points!
I am making fun of your personal obsession, and your belief that doing something about your personal obsession will fix everything else. You want to be a politician: you are convinced that your policies are right, you’d fit right in. This website is about political betting, which requires an understanding of psephology. Whether or not we need more investment in roads, that’s not why the Tories lost 2 by-elections.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
All those voters enabling genocide...
Yes
Of course many were put off by this.
Hence both the main 2 Tory Parties votes are way down on what May and Corbyn got in 2017.
SKS is barely two thirds as popular as Corbyn on these results with his pathetic 11k and 13k compared to Jezzas magnificent 16k and 17k.!!
Enjoy¡!
I am on my first holiday since Mrs BJ became Paraplegic 7 years ago and enjoying it thoroughly despite the trauma of the airport transfers for her .
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
I know it’s an unpopular view here, but the Tory MPs should have stuck with Truss.
People may not have liked her ideas, but at least she had ideas and a positive attitude. She should probably have called an election rather than resigned.
Truss was certainly more political and had a sense of direction. The only problem is the Tories had stuck with her and her wild ideological schemes, we would all be broke and scratching for food out of dustbins. Not ideal conditions for an election.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Lots of different groups have reasons to dislike him, and few have reasons to like him
True, and he adds to it with bizarre media performances and announcements that shout that he’s living in an isolated bubble. He jumps on any passing bandwagon only to fall off immediately. I’ve never seen a leader with their finger less on pulse of public opinion. Even Truss and Corbyn had their crowd. Sunak has no one.
I know it’s an unpopular view here, but the Tory MPs should have stuck with Truss.
People may not have liked her ideas, but at least she had ideas and a positive attitude. She should probably have called an election rather than resigned.
Truss had a couple of problems, though.
One was certainly her fiscal ideas, though that was more about the financial markets not swallowing them. And, ultimately, governments can only ignore the markets if they don't borrow from them.
The other was the glorious ineptness of her management style, which just annoyed everyone. What was that sweary outburst from her Chief Whip(?) just before she resigned? The fracking vote?
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
RefUK's vote share in the polling went up about 3pp when Sunak became PM. I don't think it takes a genius to work out what happened there. I suspect that the Tories have forfeited a small but not immaterial chunk of their support as long as he is their leader, no matter what batshit right wing nonsense he comes up with in an effort to win them back.
Patel was the hard right talisman of stopping the darkies. Now it is Braverman. And yet the hard right splinter vote continues to vote for some mysterious reason...
Sunak, Patel, Braverman ...
What could be the common factor preventing the hard right from backing them? I give up.
At last someone stating the obvious, most Tories I have met, and I'm sure there are decent one's out there, have at least a tinge of racism in their personalities, also explains how that moron Truss managed to beat Sunak in the members vote
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Yes, having someone past 70 as PM is very un-British. The only minor exceptions to that iron law of UK politics are obscure figures from the footnotes of history such as William Gladstone, Benjamin Disraeli, and Winston Churchill.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
All those voters enabling genocide...
Yes
Of course many were put off by this.
Hence both the main 2 Tory Parties votes are way down on what May and Corbyn got in 2017.
SKS is barely two thirds as popular as Corbyn on these results with his pathetic 11k and 13k compared to Jezzas magnificent 16k and 17k.!! .
I respect almost every poster even when I disagree with them on here but that is pathetic. I don't believe you are really this deaf and daft.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
All those voters enabling genocide...
Yes
Of course many were put off by this.
Hence both the main 2 Tory Parties votes are way down on what May and Corbyn got in 2017.
SKS is barely two thirds as popular as Corbyn on these results with his pathetic 11k and 13k compared to Jezzas magnificent 16k and 17k.!!
Enjoy¡!
I am on my first holiday since Mrs BJ became Paraplegic 7 years ago and enjoying it thoroughly despite the trauma of the airport transfers for her .
How big do you think the victories would have been had Corbyn still been leader?
So, nice profit (from trades) on Mid Beds. I traded out a Lab position yesterday, which I'd only picked up the dat before, but I've no regrets on that - the closeness of the result makes me think it was a reasonable call and probably no longer value to hold as the odds came in.
Loss on Tamworth, from a 'trading bet' that never became tradeable, but smaller than the profit on Mid Beds. Again, close enough result that I'm happy with sitting tight rather than selling that out for smaller loss.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
So, here was me wondering what the odds of 62/3 were for (second term?) and where and whether it might be worth a punt. Time for some coffee, I think!
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.
Voters are in a fickle mood.
So the worse that the Tories make public services, the higher the Tory vote at the election?
It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.
And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives (I've heard that before). but two very different results.
In Tamworth, there was an almost direct transfer from Conservative to Labour while in Mid Bedfordshire the Conservative vote splintered between Labour, the LDs and others.
In MId Bedfordshire the Conservative vote nearly halved - in Tamworth, the fall wasn't so great but still considerable. The problem is if your softest vote is in your more marginal seats that means trouble at an election. On these numbers, the notion of Labour in the mid to high 40s and the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s isn't so fanciful.
As for the LD performance in Mid Bedfordshire, which seems the one crumb of comfort for some Conservatives, what it will do is re-enforce a tight targetting message concentrating on the 75-80 seats where the party is the clear challenger and abandoning large parts of England to Labour. I think the extended length of the "campaign" was a problem for the LDs.
It's also worth mentioning after years of under performing in such contests the Labour by election operation is now much improved - we saw it at Selby & Ainsty and now at Tamworth they've overturned the 54th safest Conservativre seat. The Labour "ground game" looks in strong heart ahead of a GE and may surprise in some constituencies.
We're still a year out and a lot can happen and certainly no one can ever write off the Conservatives but Labour looks in a very good place at this stage and set to big gains while the LDs may take some scraps from the Conservative carcass but that's all.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.
Voters are in a fickle mood.
So the worse that the Tories make public services, the higher the Tory vote at the election?
The worse the public services the quicker Labour will pick up the blame.
John Curtice: No silver lining for Tories in by-election drubbings
Losses in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, which both saw a swing against the Conservatives of above 20 per cent, are redolent of defeats suffered by the Major government which ended with a Labour landslide
no government has ever lost so safe a seat as Tamworth — where the Tories’ majority in 2019 was 42 per cent — to its principal opponents. Hitherto that record was held by the Ashfield by-election when the Labour government at the time was unsuccessful in defending a 41 per cent majority against a challenge from the Conservatives.
I think 1997 redux is coming. I don’t think it will be worse (albeit from a worse start point for Labour and better for the Tories. I think a lot of people attribute too much to swings in bye elections with pitiful turnouts. If I were an ambitious young Tory right now I’d be thinking about how to change what the party is offering the nation. The old reputation for economic competence, if it was ever deserved or real, is gone. So what then is the point of a conservative government?
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.
Voters are in a fickle mood.
So the worse that the Tories make public services, the higher the Tory vote at the election?
The worse the public services the quicker Labour will pick up the blame.
Thats politics.
We're talking *before* the election - you said Starmer could fail to win a majority. I asked what would collapse the lead and make people vote Tory and you're saying its because *Keir Starmer* in opposition will get the blame for Tories trashing public services?
It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.
And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?
I've been harsh on Sunak in the past and I once said he was a man who had never failed at anything or had known defeat. If you go into politics there's a fair chance that will change.
It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.
The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?
It’s no accident that Truss and Sunak are the first Tory leaders of this government who have no experience of life in opposition.
Arguably when a party is reaching the end, it should elect a an experienced street fighter from its opposition days to save seats, not someone made soft by office and bred to rule. I still think Hague would be the best Tory leader now.
Brown got half way there bringing back Campbell and Mandleson. I’m afraid Hunt doesn’t quite cut it.
Well done Heathener. It looks like your various weathervanes have proved correct. The Tories are going to be crushed. Whether there's much enthusiasm for Labour is neither here nor there. A massive win at the next election is nailed on
PS Nick Robinson on form! The Tories rebrand is turning them into a laughing stock
It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.
And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?
I've been harsh on Sunak in the past and I once said he was a man who had never failed at anything or had known defeat. If you go into politics there's a fair chance that will change.
It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.
The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?
Nope in 20 years time his screwing round with HS2 will be regarded as a sign of utter incompetency highlighting the reduction of the UK's status as it's seen as incompetent...
One of the very first things I was taught in my economics degree was that knowledge is everything so if a skill set is required retaining that knowledge is very important.
Which means that you should have a continual set of projects going (rail electrification. nuclear power station developments, roads....) so that you aren't starting afresh all the time needing to import foreign expertise because no-one in the UK has done this in x0 years
Well done Heathener. It looks like your various weathervanes have proved correct. The Tories are going to be crushed. Whether there's much enthusiasm for Labour is neither here nor there. A massive win at the next election is nailed on
PS Nick Robinson on form! The Tories rebrand is turning them into a laughing stock
She’s hardly the only one predicting this outcome!
Can we start to consider the kind of policies the Party of Change may now want to bring in? The people's priorities:
Bring Bang Hanging Public Floggings of anyone the community doesn't like Send benefit claimants to the Workhouse Remove the speed limit on motorways A second vote for communicant members of the church of England whose parish is in a Tory seat with less than a 25k majority
Mid Beds: my posts from yesterday: labour by 1% (it was 2%) and "Conservative vote split between Conservatives and Reform and Labour sneak through the middle and take it."
Can we start to consider the kind of policies the Party of Change may now want to bring in? The people's priorities:
Bring Bang Hanging Public Floggings of anyone the community doesn't like Send benefit claimants to the Workhouse Remove the speed limit on motorways A second vote for communicant members of the church of England whose parish is in a Tory seat with less than a 25k majority
The compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast and free corsets for the under-5s.
The Reform vote in both by-elections interests me. Is this a cohort of voters than can be squeezed with the right policies back into the Tory column, or is it, and I fear this may be true, a cohort of voters who don't want to vote for a party led by an PM of Indian heritage. We would all rightly abhor the racism, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that some of the Reform vote isn't salvagable for Con for that reason.
It must be really chastening for Rishi Sunak, who by any odds has had a remarkably successful and lucrative career, to realise he just isn’t any good at this. Oxford. Fulbright Scholar. Goldman Sachs. Chancellor. First Asian-extraction British PM.
And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?
I've been harsh on Sunak in the past and I once said he was a man who had never failed at anything or had known defeat. If you go into politics there's a fair chance that will change.
It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.
The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?
Nope in 20 years time his screwing round with HS2 will be regarded as a sign of utter incompetency highlighting the reduction of the UK's status as it's seen as incompetent...
One of the very first things I was taught in my economics degree was that knowledge is everything so if a skill set is required retaining that knowledge is very important.
Which means that you should have a continual set of projects going (rail electrification. nuclear power station developments, roads....) so that you aren't starting afresh all the time needing to import foreign expertise because no-one in the UK has done this in x0 years
That works fine when the projects you want to build are both economially viable and necessary. There were lots of programmes that could apply to. HS2 was not one of them and indeed it sucked money away from other more important and useful projects.
Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.
There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)
With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.
Well done Heathener. It looks like your various weathervanes have proved correct. The Tories are going to be crushed. Whether there's much enthusiasm for Labour is neither here nor there. A massive win at the next election is nailed on
PS Nick Robinson on form! The Tories rebrand is turning them into a laughing stock
She’s hardly the only one predicting this outcome!
Tbf to Heathener she is the most consistent, and has been saying it for the longest, of course, she has still to be proved right
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
The big news of the night of course comes from Worcester, where my Party made 2 gains on huge swings. In one of those Councils Greens are within touching distance of largest Party.
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
All those voters enabling genocide...
Yes
Of course many were put off by this.
Hence both the main 2 Tory Parties votes are way down on what May and Corbyn got in 2017.
SKS is barely two thirds as popular as Corbyn on these results with his pathetic 11k and 13k compared to Jezzas magnificent 16k and 17k.!! .
I respect almost every poster even when I disagree with them on here but that is pathetic. I don't believe you are really this deaf and daft.
Do some reflecting and enjoy your holiday.
Knock it off, Heathen.
PB is a kaleidoscope of opinion. Don't disdain its more exotic colours.
Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.
There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)
With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.
I think he will anyway and will just defy the states to jail him. Sadly at the moment it looks like he will win even from behind bars.
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Cameron was right that the country is not Twitter, not that the media notices.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
Yes, the reason the Conservatives lost Tamworth was because of a lack of investment in roads. It was not because of the cost of living, decay of the NHS, Partygate, Chris Pincher’s behaviour and Peter Bone’s behaviour, Brexit, delays in the court system, cuts in local government services, Liz Truss, the mishandling of the pandemic, failures on immigration, higher taxes, and flip-flopping on HS2.
Well done for completely missing the point.
It's interesting that you see those as alternatives, rather than a failure to invest in the roads being one of the multiple other failures as well.
Especially since you incorporated HS2 in your second list and as we've established that affects far fewer voters.
A failure to invest in roads, or charging infrastructure, while jacking up taxes, is just another in the litany of failures to add to your list. If you can get over your pathological hatred of investing in transportation.
Where have I shown a pathological hatred of investing in transportation? I am for investing in transportation. Bring on more charging points!
I am making fun of your personal obsession, and your belief that doing something about your personal obsession will fix everything else. You want to be a politician: you are convinced that your policies are right, you’d fit right in. This website is about political betting, which requires an understanding of psephology. Whether or not we need more investment in roads, that’s not why the Tories lost 2 by-elections.
It is not a personal obsession and I don't remotely think that doing something about it will fix everything else. I never once suggested otherwise.
Indeed I've repeatedly said it's not either or, it's multiple things.
Our long neglected roads that haven't kept pace with population growth, and our lack of charging infrastructure is just one of the many things that need fixing in this country.
Other capex infrastructure investment that hasn't kept up with population growth needs addressing too.
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives (I've heard that before). but two very different results.
In Tamworth, there was an almost direct transfer from Conservative to Labour while in Mid Bedfordshire the Conservative vote splintered between Labour, the LDs and others.
In MId Bedfordshire the Conservative vote nearly halved - in Tamworth, the fall wasn't so great but still considerable. The problem is if your softest vote is in your more marginal seats that means trouble at an election. On these numbers, the notion of Labour in the mid to high 40s and the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s isn't so fanciful.
As for the LD performance in Mid Bedfordshire, which seems the one crumb of comfort for some Conservatives, what it will do is re-enforce a tight targetting message concentrating on the 75-80 seats where the party is the clear challenger and abandoning large parts of England to Labour. I think the extended length of the "campaign" was a problem for the LDs.
It's also worth mentioning after years of under performing in such contests the Labour by election operation is now much improved - we saw it at Selby & Ainsty and now at Tamworth they've overturned the 54th safest Conservativre seat. The Labour "ground game" looks in strong heart ahead of a GE and may surprise in some constituencies.
We're still a year out and a lot can happen and certainly no one can ever write off the Conservatives but Labour looks in a very good place at this stage and set to big gains while the LDs may take some scraps from the Conservative carcass but that's all.
Fully agree re Tamworth.
On your point regarding the improved Labour performance in by-elections, the most telling comparison for me is that between Mid Beds and North Shropshire just 2 years ago. In North Shropshire the starting point was a 41% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 12% ahead of the LDs. In Mid Beds the starting point was a 38% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 10% ahead of the LDs.
So the starting point in Mid Beds and North Shropshire was very similar. Yet while in North Shropshire Labour got badly squeezed by the LDs and saw a 9% fall in its vote, in Mid Beds Labour increased its vote share by 12%, more than the LDs.
That change in the Labour performance is I think indicative of the change in the national polls over the past 2 years, combined with Labour upping its game in that by-election compared to 2 years earlier. Also, in view of the huge effort that the LDs put into Mid Beds alone, and in particular the effort they made to squeeze Labour by the likes of fake polling and personal attacks on the Labour candidate, the LDs have emerged totally discredited. So it was a very poor night for the LDs too.
The Reform vote in both by-elections interests me. Is this a cohort of voters than can be squeezed with the right policies back into the Tory column, or is it, and I fear this may be true, a cohort of voters who don't want to vote for a party led by an PM of Indian heritage. We would all rightly abhor the racism, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that some of the Reform vote isn't salvagable for Con for that reason.
I don't think those are the two alternatives. The most likely reason they won't be squeezed is they neither trust the Tories to do anything they say, nor believe they are in any way competant enough to do it even if they want to. It is a view shared by the majority of the country and the main defining characteristic of Reform voters as opposed to Labour or Lib Dems is they don't trust those parties either.
Clearly bad results for the Tories in both seats with big swings to Labour. Starmer will be pleased to gain both seats which suggests he is heading for No 10.
LDs will be disappointed not to have come closer in Mid Bedfordshire. Reform will be pleased with third in Tamworth
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
Quite, and since Starmer is not preparing the way for this he will have a tough time if he gets in to power. Too many disappointed expectations.
There will be frustration that Labour cannot speedily fix things, but I really can't see voters bothered about public services returning to the party that trashed them.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
It's one outcome. The other is he falls short of a majority has a weak government which is Callaghan 2. Hes then a one term PM with a whirlwind to behind him.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Out of interest, what factors do you think will see the collapse in the nationwide "get shut of the Tories" mood which has endless 20 point Labour leads and end to end 20%+ swings?
The continued degradation of public services, the stress on finances as we have low growth and the Starmer all things to all men approach which means he has no depth to his support.
Voters are in a fickle mood.
So the worse that the Tories make public services, the higher the Tory vote at the election?
The worse the public services the quicker Labour will pick up the blame.
Thats politics.
We're talking *before* the election - you said Starmer could fail to win a majority. I asked what would collapse the lead and make people vote Tory and you're saying its because *Keir Starmer* in opposition will get the blame for Tories trashing public services?
In your excitement you werent that clear.
So what could make him fall short ? Events dear boy, we werent expecting a Middle East meltdown two weeks ago. It could go anywhere atm. Swingback where voters start looking at what is of offer and change the polls. No sealing the deal - Starmer is just mush to voters. Lib Dems or SNP do better and take lots of seats forcing the need for a coalition.
Im sure you can think of others yourself, however I must now head off for a break in the West Country, the other half really chose a good one. Have a good morning.
Back on topic, the next few opinion polls will be interesting.
I've been wondering for a bit if the 28% the Conservatives have been registering might be a bit soft. One normally assumes it comprises the 'vote-for-a-monkey -in-a-blue-rosette' sort. Now I suspect they may be wondering about the monkey.
If they dip below 25% then I'd have to put their prospective seat total at the GE rather closer to the left hand edge of the catastrophe spectrum.
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives (I've heard that before). but two very different results.
In Tamworth, there was an almost direct transfer from Conservative to Labour while in Mid Bedfordshire the Conservative vote splintered between Labour, the LDs and others.
In MId Bedfordshire the Conservative vote nearly halved - in Tamworth, the fall wasn't so great but still considerable. The problem is if your softest vote is in your more marginal seats that means trouble at an election. On these numbers, the notion of Labour in the mid to high 40s and the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s isn't so fanciful.
As for the LD performance in Mid Bedfordshire, which seems the one crumb of comfort for some Conservatives, what it will do is re-enforce a tight targetting message concentrating on the 75-80 seats where the party is the clear challenger and abandoning large parts of England to Labour. I think the extended length of the "campaign" was a problem for the LDs.
It's also worth mentioning after years of under performing in such contests the Labour by election operation is now much improved - we saw it at Selby & Ainsty and now at Tamworth they've overturned the 54th safest Conservativre seat. The Labour "ground game" looks in strong heart ahead of a GE and may surprise in some constituencies.
We're still a year out and a lot can happen and certainly no one can ever write off the Conservatives but Labour looks in a very good place at this stage and set to big gains while the LDs may take some scraps from the Conservative carcass but that's all.
Fully agree re Tamworth.
On your point regarding the improved Labour performance in by-elections, the most telling comparison for me is that between Mid Beds and North Shropshire just 2 years ago. In North Shropshire the starting point was a 41% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 12% ahead of the LDs. In Mid Beds the starting point was a 38% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 10% ahead of the LDs.
So the starting point in Mid Beds and North Shropshire was very similar. Yet while in North Shropshire Labour got badly squeezed by the LDs and saw a 9% fall in its vote, in Mid Beds Labour increased its vote share by 12%, more than the LDs.
That change in the Labour performance is I think indicative of the change in the national polls over the past 2 years, combined with Labour upping its game in that by-election compared to 2 years earlier. Also, in view of the huge effort that the LDs put into Mid Beds alone, and in particular the effort they made to squeeze Labour by the likes of fake polling and personal attacks on the Labour candidate, the LDs have emerged totally discredited. So it was a very poor night for the LDs too.
Two years ago people, on the whole, still did not see Starmer as a PM in waiting. Now they do.
Clearly bad results for the Tories in both seats with big swings to Labour. Starmer will be pleased to gain both seats which suggests he is heading for No 10.
LDs will be disappointed not to have come closer in Mid Bedfordshire. Reform will be pleased with third in Tamworth
Greg Hands pointed out the Labour vote was down in Mid Beds from the GE.
Can we start to consider the kind of policies the Party of Change may now want to bring in? The people's priorities:
Bring Bang Hanging Public Floggings of anyone the community doesn't like Send benefit claimants to the Workhouse Remove the speed limit on motorways A second vote for communicant members of the church of England whose parish is in a Tory seat with less than a 25k majority
But not for Church of England clergy most of whom now vote Labour
Meanwhile...yesterday, the prosecutor got a plea bargain for Trump's lawyer, Sidney Powell, in the Georgian election interference case. Who must now testify against Trump.
There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)
With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.
There’s something totally screwed up in the US ‘justice’ system, where the whole thing relies on threatening several dozen people with decades in jail, then trying to convince them one by one to sh!t on each other with the promise of community service instead of jail time.
I still think Trump can sustain a sufficient number of appeals until after the election, but the whole thing is a total mess.
Can’t both parties find half-suitable candidates any more, rather than relying on a pair of octogenarians with dodgy histories?
George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.
It's not a great predictive record.
We DID enter his era. It was an utter disaster. Nobody conceived that a Tory majority of 80 would be followed by a Labour majority of 80 - if the Tories are lucky.
Comments
The concern is what else the Tories have on the chopping block.
I do agree with the concern about the size of the hard right vote. Not because it will grow any more, but because of what it means for politics when the governing party is this desperate and this stupid.
Very good results for Labour, and a couple of deserved spankings for the Conservatives,
So, two questions:
1 - WWRD? What will Rishi do? Will he double down on burning down everything, including his administration's achievements, such as they are?
2 - How does Mr Starmer plan to cover the £100bn a year gap in the Goverment budget, whilst investing for the future as he claims?
As for the 2 Parliamentary elections sad to see the myriad of right-wing Tory Parties occupy not just the first 2 places (as some were predicting I would say) but in Tamworth the first 5. Enoch Powell from beyond the grave must be having a wank!
There will be Con/RefUK swing voters who you can get to vote Tory with some extra anti-immigration rhetoric. There will be Con/Lab swing voters who you will lose to Labour if you do that. I suspect more of the latter than the former; parties win elections from the centre. But nor can it be denied that there is a segment of the population that will vote for more right-wing parties if they stand. I think the way this really matters is not about the Conservatives tacking to the right, but about how many seats Reform UK choose to stand in. If Reform UK doesn’t stand in as many seats at the general election, a bunch of their voters will vote Con instead.
Starmer gets a decade in power IMO.
Put it in context: in a by-election in a seat with historically quite high right wing party votes, at a time when voters are disillusioned with the government and in a by-election which is a free vote, hard right / fash parties only managed 9%. Yet nationally Refuk is supposedly polling 6-9%. That suggests their appeal is very limited.
As for the Lib Dems, it is a further sign of the unspoken electoral pact with Labour working well. Mid Beds was an interesting test and will hopefully prevent us from overextending into less fruitful areas come the GE.
Though where the hell he will put them God knows.
It's interesting that you see those as alternatives, rather than a failure to invest in the roads being one of the multiple other failures as well.
Especially since you incorporated HS2 in your second list and as we've established that affects far fewer voters.
A failure to invest in roads, or charging infrastructure, while jacking up taxes, is just another in the litany of failures to add to your list. If you can get over your pathological hatred of investing in transportation.
https://nypost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/nypost.com/2023/10/07/capital-of-the-world-why-london-is-cleaning-nys-clock/amp/
A New Yorker can only be amazed at the relatively smooth and rancor-free sail that Canada Water enjoyed through a rational approval process that mocks the Big Apple’s tortuous land-use ordeals.
...
Too many New Yorkers who call themselves progressive but are in fact reactionary would rather the city never change at all.
Requests for a zoning change to add a few stories onto an old building trigger howls over “gentrification,” environmental nitpicking, and bureaucratic heel-dragging.
To say nothing of outright sabotage — such as by City Council members who have torpedoed worthy projects in Harlem and Brooklyn’s Sunset Park out of sheer spite.
Borrowing for opex = bad
Borrowing for capex = good
People may not have liked her ideas, but at least she had ideas and a positive attitude. She should probably have called an election rather than resigned.
He'll be 62/3 if he gets in. A second term would see him continuing in to his seventies that might fly in the States but its not us.
Thaw fairly crispily in a lower temp air fryer.
Might be an argument for being on the slight underside of fully cooked, crispiness for the encouragement of.
What could be the common factor preventing the hard right from backing them? I give up.
Lab and Lib Dems are not irrelevant alternatives, they are very different alternatives. Which is why their votes aren't the same.
Tory and ReFuk aren't irrelevant alternatives either, they are very different alternatives too.
ReFuk, UKIP, Britain First etc may be irrelevant alternatives to each other, but since they aren't going to win, the emphasis is on the word irrelevant.
It wasn't able to function as a government. Lets assume that Truss had decided to tough it out after that debacle - she'd have had the same avalanche of ministerial resignations as shagger had.
I am making fun of your personal obsession, and your belief that doing something about your personal obsession will fix everything else. You want to be a politician: you are convinced that your policies are right, you’d fit right in. This website is about political betting, which requires an understanding of psephology. Whether or not we need more investment in roads, that’s not why the Tories lost 2 by-elections.
Of course many were put off by this.
Hence both the main 2 Tory Parties votes are way down on what May and Corbyn got in 2017.
SKS is barely two thirds as popular as Corbyn on these results with his pathetic 11k and 13k compared to Jezzas magnificent 16k and 17k.!!
Enjoy¡!
I am on my first holiday since Mrs BJ became Paraplegic 7 years ago and enjoying it thoroughly despite the trauma of the airport transfers for her .
George Osborne, former Chancellor.
One was certainly her fiscal ideas, though that was more about the financial markets not swallowing them. And, ultimately, governments can only ignore the markets if they don't borrow from them.
The other was the glorious ineptness of her management style, which just annoyed everyone. What was that sweary outburst from her Chief Whip(?) just before she resigned? The fracking vote?
(Also applies to Britain First - and the Tories and, let's be honest, Lab and anyone else, but still...)
Do some reflecting and enjoy your holiday.
Loss on Tamworth, from a 'trading bet' that never became tradeable, but smaller than the profit on Mid Beds. Again, close enough result that I'm happy with sitting tight rather than selling that out for smaller loss.
Voters are in a fickle mood.
Russian losses as claimed by Ukraine:
Tanks: 55
Armoured fighting vehicles: 120
Artillery:29 (plus 4 MLRS)
Military personnel: 1,380
Putin's attempts to get a "win" to put before the voters get ever more desperate. At what point do the generals say "enough!!" ?
None of them have stopped the boats...
And he just can’t do it. Whatever he tries doesn’t work. How do you get up every morning and start work knowing you’re not going to succeed?
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives (I've heard that before). but two very different results.
In Tamworth, there was an almost direct transfer from Conservative to Labour while in Mid Bedfordshire the Conservative vote splintered between Labour, the LDs and others.
In MId Bedfordshire the Conservative vote nearly halved - in Tamworth, the fall wasn't so great but still considerable. The problem is if your softest vote is in your more marginal seats that means trouble at an election. On these numbers, the notion of Labour in the mid to high 40s and the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s isn't so fanciful.
As for the LD performance in Mid Bedfordshire, which seems the one crumb of comfort for some Conservatives, what it will do is re-enforce a tight targetting message concentrating on the 75-80 seats where the party is the clear challenger and abandoning large parts of England to Labour. I think the extended length of the "campaign" was a problem for the LDs.
It's also worth mentioning after years of under performing in such contests the Labour by election operation is now much improved - we saw it at Selby & Ainsty and now at Tamworth they've overturned the 54th safest Conservativre seat. The Labour "ground game" looks in strong heart ahead of a GE and may surprise in some constituencies.
We're still a year out and a lot can happen and certainly no one can ever write off the Conservatives but Labour looks in a very good place at this stage and set to big gains while the LDs may take some scraps from the Conservative carcass but that's all.
Thats politics.
All the best for your hols, BJO
Congratulations to Labour, but not a very good day for the Lib Dems.
Even worse for the Tories of course!
Underline’s Rishi’s foolishness in getting off to the Middle East.
Losses in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, which both saw a swing against the Conservatives of above 20 per cent, are redolent of defeats suffered by the Major government which ended with a Labour landslide
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-curtice-labour-tories-tamworth-mid-bedfordshire-by-elections-2l7z86nw6
If I were an ambitious young Tory right now I’d be thinking about how to change what the party is offering the nation. The old reputation for economic competence, if it was ever deserved or real, is gone. So what then is the point of a conservative government?
It could be a positive and character building experience for him and remember he's only 43 (Blair's age in 1997). In twenty years time opinions of him could be very different and he might be the respected elder statesman.
The truth is there may be nothing as ex as an ex-MP (as someone once said) but there's really nothing as ex as an ex-PM. Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson - all still with us, all still able to contribute to the national debte but do they? If they do, does anyone listen or are their past sins thrown back at them and used as an excuse to ignore them?
Arguably when a party is reaching the end, it should elect a an experienced street fighter from its opposition days to save seats, not someone made soft by office and bred to rule. I still think Hague would be the best Tory leader now.
Brown got half way there bringing back Campbell and Mandleson. I’m afraid Hunt doesn’t quite cut it.
It doesn't look good when neither Infosys and Wipro are recruiting graduates
https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/20/indian_outsourcers_q2_results/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
PS Nick Robinson on form! The Tories rebrand is turning them into a laughing stock
One of the very first things I was taught in my economics degree was that knowledge is everything so if a skill set is required retaining that knowledge is very important.
Which means that you should have a continual set of projects going (rail electrification. nuclear power station developments, roads....) so that you aren't starting afresh all the time needing to import foreign expertise because no-one in the UK has done this in x0 years
Andrew Cooper,
Conservative candidate in the Tamworth by-election.
You told struggling parents to f#@£ off,
Now the voters have said the same to you.
E. J. Thribb (age 23.9 percent)
Bring Bang Hanging
Public Floggings of anyone the community doesn't like
Send benefit claimants to the Workhouse
Remove the speed limit on motorways
A second vote for communicant members of the church of England whose parish is in a Tory seat with less than a 25k majority
Pardon can you use CAPS please I can't hear
Mid Beds: my posts from yesterday: labour by 1% (it was 2%) and "Conservative vote split between Conservatives and Reform and Labour sneak through the middle and take it."
Just sayin'
xx
There has been a tsunami of bad news for Trump in the various cases going on against him. (Although worse for Rudy Guiliani, who is now very likely to be personally bankrupted by the cases against him.)
With the timelines of these cases, especially state cases where he can't pardon himself, I just don't see how Trump can be the candidate next year.
PB is a kaleidoscope of opinion. Don't disdain its more exotic colours.
Indeed I've repeatedly said it's not either or, it's multiple things.
Our long neglected roads that haven't kept pace with population growth, and our lack of charging infrastructure is just one of the many things that need fixing in this country.
Other capex infrastructure investment that hasn't kept up with population growth needs addressing too.
On your point regarding the improved Labour performance in by-elections, the most telling comparison for me is that between Mid Beds and North Shropshire just 2 years ago. In North Shropshire the starting point was a 41% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 12% ahead of the LDs. In Mid Beds the starting point was a 38% Conservative majority, with Labour in a clear 2nd place on 22%, 10% ahead of the LDs.
So the starting point in Mid Beds and North Shropshire was very similar. Yet while in North Shropshire Labour got badly squeezed by the LDs and saw a 9% fall in its vote, in Mid Beds Labour increased its vote share by 12%, more than the LDs.
That change in the Labour performance is I think indicative of the change in the national polls over the past 2 years, combined with Labour upping its game in that by-election compared to 2 years earlier. Also, in view of the huge effort that the LDs put into Mid Beds alone, and in particular the effort they made to squeeze Labour by the likes of fake polling and personal attacks on the Labour candidate, the LDs have emerged totally discredited. So it was a very poor night for the LDs too.
George Osborne, first words after exit poll, election night BBC TV, 2019.
It's not a great predictive record.
LDs will be disappointed not to have come closer in Mid Bedfordshire. Reform will be pleased with third in Tamworth
So what could make him fall short ? Events dear boy, we werent expecting a Middle East meltdown two weeks ago. It could go anywhere atm. Swingback where voters start looking at what is of offer and change the polls. No sealing the deal - Starmer is just mush to voters. Lib Dems or SNP do better and take lots of seats forcing the need for a coalition.
Im sure you can think of others yourself, however I must now head off for a break in the West Country, the other half really chose a good one. Have a good morning.
I've been wondering for a bit if the 28% the Conservatives have been registering might be a bit soft. One normally assumes it comprises the 'vote-for-a-monkey -in-a-blue-rosette' sort. Now I suspect they may be wondering about the monkey.
If they dip below 25% then I'd have to put their prospective seat total at the GE rather closer to the left hand edge of the catastrophe spectrum.
Well, except for BJO.
I still think Trump can sustain a sufficient number of appeals until after the election, but the whole thing is a total mess.
Can’t both parties find half-suitable candidates any more, rather than relying on a pair of octogenarians with dodgy histories?
@MattChorley
Maybe people do want seven bins?