The by-election betting as voting ends – politicalbetting.com

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One thing I do miss about being an activist.

Knocking up the voters on election day.

Knocking them out. If you are busy knocking them up then not only are they not voting, you’re also not knocking on other doors.

Unless you’re saying there were a lot of babies born with flamboyant shoes after your efforts.…

At some point during Election Day, usually dependent on the availability of volunteers, the committee room organiser will send people out to ‘Knock-Up’ your supporters who have not yet voted. It is usual practice to leave this until at least lunchtime as most people who don’t vote early tend to vote after work. If you know your area as you should you will know who is likely to be in and who is not. The simplest method of doing this is to equip the volunteers with a version of the Out Card which has a message on it reminding voters that this is Polling Day. These can be popped through letterboxes and can remind anyone who goes straight home after work that they really should visit the polling station. Just because it is your most important day does not mean it is theirs and some people do genuinely forget.

Don’t expect people to drop everything and run to the polls. Even in households where one partner is at home all day, a significant number will wait until the other partner returns from work before voting, which they most likely will do together. If someone tells you they will vote at 6 pm make a note that getas passed on each time that road is knocked-up and do NOT visit that person again until after 6pm.

UK elections usually occur on Thursdays, which for most of is a working day. In most areas there is a rush to the polls in the early morning and early evening so the evening knock-ups are vital. If you are short of volunteers and they can only help for a part of the day ask them if they help in the evening.

Keep your Knock-Up sheets as up to date as possible so that you send your knockers-up to the area with the largest number of supporters who have not yet voted but at the same time try to ensure that every area is visited during the course of the day.


http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/knocking-up.shtml

The honourable tradition of knocker-uppers in many cities pre WW2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knocker-up

dixiedean said:

Don't get this "they don't count postal votes first" business.
Haven't they already had the signatures verified?
Since they are there at 10 pm, and no other votes are, then why wouldn't they be counted first?
Or am I missing something?

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

rcs1000 said:

biggles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

@predictorelect
7m
BREAKING: the Liberal Democrats appear to be conceding defeat in Mid Bedfordshire already in thinly veiled internal memos
https://x.com/predictorelect/status/1715113735105159226?s=20

Nigel Farage conceded defeat in 2016 didn't he?

Indeed, and pushed the Leave price out to 14 at 10.20pm.

Always said he was a good chap, helped quite a few of us out there.

IIRC he started to spin the need for a second referendum?

Those were the days. 2015, Trump, and Brexit all generated 10/1 profits at near zero risk due to analysis on this site (yes I’ve donated to running costs, when asked, to reflect that).

I remember the EU referendum evening, when it was absolutely obvious that Leave had won, and yet being able to keep putting money on at odds of evens or better. It was absolute madness; the freest of free money.

My only regret was my inherent caution stopping me sticking on all available liquid cash. It was free money. But one day that caution will save my shirt.

Spare a thought for me, who, having drunk several whiskies in despair, piled in on what I thought was Leave knowing it was free money, only to realise I’d actually backed Remain - and had to spend an agonising 20 minutes trying to lay it off.

Not my finest hour.

Andy_JS said:

viewcode said:

Andy_JS said:

"Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth

Hearing Labour's ahead on postal votes in Tamworth. Today's weather means that could be significant

Labour's Mid Beds campaign also apparently v positive about their chance of snatching a win... however, a Lib Dem source says they have been working smaller villages hard

10:00 PM · Oct 19, 2023"

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1715110778322165811

Isn't disclosing postal votes illegal?

It is before 10pm.

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

However mental it was, I can at least understand why some people voted Tory in Uxbridge to stop Grant Shapps’s ULEZ. But what is the mentality as to why they would vote Tory in Dorries or Pincher land?

Whatever happened about ULEZ? Has anybody starved to death because they had to pay 12 quid or whatever to drive their shitbox to Croydon?

Andy_JS said:

dixiedean said:

Don't get this "they don't count postal votes first" business.
Haven't they already had the signatures verified?
Since they are there at 10 pm, and no other votes are, then why wouldn't they be counted first?
Or am I missing something?

Don't they have to be mixed in with the ordinary votes?

Andy_JS said:

"Amy Holmes
@AmyHolmesMedia

Spoken to Labour and Lib Dems here this evening and both agree this is too close to call.

It feels like a three horse race, which in Mid Beds is something we've not often been able to say as it's been a Conservative seat for over 90 years."

https://twitter.com/AmyHolmesMedia/status/1715118037181857928

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

...

... --- ...

Northern_Al said:

rottenborough said:

Kirsty Walk to leave NewsNight after next GE.

She's been told to Walk? (It's Wark).

rottenborough said:

Melanie Zanona
@MZanona
WHERE WE'RE AT:

--Jim Jordan can't get to 217
--Prospects for a resolution to empower interim speaker McHenry look grim
--Members getting death threats over their speaker votes
--Lawmakers swearing & yelling at each other in closed-door meeting

Day 16 without a speaker.

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1715068573394096366

Nigelb said:

Good for her.

California Sen. Laphonza Butler will not seek a full term
Her decision ends speculation that she would scramble an already fierce contest.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/california-sen-laphonza-butler-will-not-seek-a-full-term-00122584

Theuniondivvie said:

All important Reform candidate shoe update.

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Question re; Tamworth - Does the Tamworth Manifesto still resonate with local voters, and with what likely impact on the by-election result?

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Sadly, China has much better trains...

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Independent.co.uk by-election live blog

What time will we get the by-election results?
Mid Bedfordshire will be the first to report, with results expected at around 1.30am. Results of the contest in Tamworth are expected at around 3.00am, though both could be delayed if a recount is needed.

kamski said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Sadly, China has much better trains...

Impossible, how could they possibly have trains without having had the benefit of British rule?

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Cookie said:

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has some kick-ass data. This, for example, is the water level on the Braan in Perthshire: https://www2.sepa.org.uk/waterlevels/?sd=t&lc=8402

rottenborough said:

Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
·
1h
On Tamworth. Two Labour sources telling me they positive on taking that seat. Context: someone pointed out to me that Tamworth replaced SE Staffordshire constituency in '97.

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

rcs1000 said:

biggles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

@predictorelect
7m
BREAKING: the Liberal Democrats appear to be conceding defeat in Mid Bedfordshire already in thinly veiled internal memos
https://x.com/predictorelect/status/1715113735105159226?s=20

Nigel Farage conceded defeat in 2016 didn't he?

Indeed, and pushed the Leave price out to 14 at 10.20pm.

Always said he was a good chap, helped quite a few of us out there.

IIRC he started to spin the need for a second referendum?

Those were the days. 2015, Trump, and Brexit all generated 10/1 profits at near zero risk due to analysis on this site (yes I’ve donated to running costs, when asked, to reflect that).

I remember the EU referendum evening, when it was absolutely obvious that Leave had won, and yet being able to keep putting money on at odds of evens or better. It was absolute madness; the freest of free money.

My only regret was my inherent caution stopping me sticking on all available liquid cash. It was free money. But one day that caution will save my shirt.

Spare a thought for me, who, having drunk several whiskies in despair, piled in on what I thought was Leave knowing it was free money, only to realise I’d actually backed Remain - and had to spend an agonising 20 minutes trying to lay it off.

Not my finest hour.

Ouch. I’m guessing the rest bottle of the bottle then went down the hatch?

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Until 1997. China became wealthier in the 1980s and 1980s and grew rapidly as Deng shifted from communism towards capitalism while India was largely under the centre left Congress.

Now Xi is shifting back towards elements of Maoism while Modi and the BJP are moving towards capitalism and Indian growth rate has now overtaken Chinese growth rate

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Sadly, China has much better trains...

Impossible, how could they possibly have trains without having had the benefit of British rule?

China didn't get trains for 20 years after India did

I think everybody agrees that Chinese trains are much better than Indian ones.

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Until 1997. China became wealthier in the 1980s and 1980s and grew rapidly as Deng shifted from communism towards capitalism while India was largely under the centre left Congress.

Now Xi is shifting back towards elements of Maoism while Modi and the BJP are moving towards capitalism and Indian growth rate has now overtaken Chinese growth rate

Hong Kong was certainly not "fully democratic" until 1997.

Yes democratic India grew much slower than China for decades.

Demographics and the fact that China is already an upper middle income country mean that India is likely to grow faster than China for some years. But it's still a long long way to catch up.

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Sadly, China has much better trains...

Impossible, how could they possibly have trains without having had the benefit of British rule?

China didn't get trains for 20 years after India did

I think everybody agrees that Chinese trains are much better than Indian ones.

You just might get dragged off the train and never seen again or shot in the former

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

HYUFD said:

maxh said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

Sean_F said:

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.

Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

We have the wrong green crap

That's not how the voters see it.

Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.

It's peculiar.

For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.

Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.

The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.

One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….

FPT
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.

China moving from Maoism to Communism had the biggest impact, however had it followed the Hong Kong model rather than the Beijing model rather than imposed the latter on the former it would have done even better

Hard to assess that claim, but I think I agree with the wider supposition that the poverty reduction in China was probably baked in regardless of the particular nature of the government.

Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.

It was certainly driven by a move towards capitalism and more mixed private and public industry and away from Maoist communism.

Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there

Compare China and India.

Indian growth rate this year 8%, Chinese growth rate this year 5%

Not what I meant. Until the 80s both equally poor, since then China became many times wealthier than democratic India. (Also, when was Hong Kong a "fully democratic British colony"?)

Until 1997. China became wealthier in the 1980s and 1980s and grew rapidly as Deng shifted from communism towards capitalism while India was largely under the centre left Congress.

Now Xi is shifting back towards elements of Maoism while Modi and the BJP are moving towards capitalism and Indian growth rate has now overtaken Chinese growth rate

Hong Kong was certainly not "fully democratic" until 1997.

Yes democratic India grew much slower than China for decades.

Demographics and the fact that China is already an upper middle income country mean that India is likely to grow faster than China for some years. But it's still a long long way to catch up.

Hong Kong had an elected multiparty Legislative Council by 1997 and was per capita much wealthier per head than mainland China.

India on current growth trajectory could well overtake China on gdp by 2050

Andy_JS said:

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

"Lewis Warner
@LewisJWarner

Labour bods in Tamworth still feel this is close.

They’re watching the votes pile up in pretty even stacks.

In some places there’s a Tory lead, and vice versa.

Waiting for boxes from all of the wards before claiming to have a good idea of what’s going on.

@itvcentral
11:54 PM · Oct 19, 2023"

https://twitter.com/LewisJWarner/status/1715139305742487595

We seem to be hearing this from Labour people, which reads like confidence but they are not getting carried away. If we're hearing nothing from the Tories not even expectations management is that notable?

Sticking with two Labour gains.

Not sure whether Tory silence means anything at this stage.

NickPalmer said:

Other scattered tidbits:

* Labour wasn't using telling for knock-up - we had tellers but their numbers weren't processed, because there were so many rounds going out that it didn't seem worth trying to keep up. A mistake in my opinion - why not use the info as you've got it?

* I did come across a handful of Independent voters. But the Betfair market on Mackey the Indie getting

Anabobazina said:

Andy_JS said:

BBC election show: implying recounts possible in both seats, could be a very long night.

Which channel is this on? It’s the Asia Business Show on BBC News!