* Labour wasn't using telling for knock-up - we had tellers but their numbers weren't processed, because there were so many rounds going out that it didn't seem worth trying to keep up. A mistake in my opinion - why not use the info as you've got it?
* I did come across a handful of Independent voters. But the Betfair market on Mackey the Indie getting
I do think Starmer scored an own goal there . He should have been less confrontational in his language .
Damned if he doesn’t say anything, damned if he does.
Much depends on whether we believe the rumours on Tamworth postal votes . If Labour are ahead on those then lower turnout might be okay . I would have thought that higher turnout as a rule would be better for the opposition as angry voters tend to want to come out and give the government a good kicking .
Much depends on whether we believe the rumours on Tamworth postal votes . If Labour are ahead on those then lower turnout might be okay . I would have thought that higher turnout as a rule would be better for the opposition as angry voters tend to want to come out and give the government a good kicking .
I think it's more a case of disillusioned voters for party X sitting on their hands. Sort of a blue-candlestick-two-red-faces thing
36% v 39% isn't a big difference, and it's the result that's important not the turnout. I hope this doesn't take all night because I'm already tired! I've got a horrible feeling we won't have either result when the sun comes up.
36% v 39% isn't a big difference, and it's the result that's important not the turnout. I hope this doesn't take all night because I'm already tired! I've got a horrible feeling we won't have either result when the sun comes up.
Got meetings in the morning so am going to have to hit the hay. Good luck to you and all PBers with their bets.
Apparently Labour are ahead in a key Mid-Beds ward that’s normally a Tory stronghold . That’s according to a local councillor. Also Lib Dems saying they’ve taken a lot of votes from the Tories in villages and think that’s allowed Labour through . It’s on Jon Craig’s twitter feed .
The Liberal Democrats think they have helped Labour over the line in Mid Bedfordshire.
A party source said candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay has managed to double the Lib Dems’ vote share compared with the 2019 general election - at the expense of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
The source called the by-election for Labour, saying it has been a “bad night” for the Tories.
They said the party saw a “path to victory” ahead of the contest, but door-knocking on the final day of the campaign suggested a surge in support for Labour in towns and a collapse in support for the Conservatives in the county’s villages.
One thing seems certain: the LDs haven't won Mid Beds, from their own testimony. I'm not 100% convinced what they're saying about Labour winning the seat though.
Apparently Labour are ahead in a key Mid-Beds ward that’s normally a Tory stronghold . That’s according to a local councillor. Also Lib Dems saying they’ve taken a lot of votes from the Tories in villages and think that’s allowed Labour through . It’s on Jon Craig’s twitter feed .
Suspect that's the very expensive ward I helped canvass last weekend, where I was startled by the number of Labour posters. I was told that the nearest that mid-Beds gets to a university ward, with lots of retired professors and the like.
The new LibDem narrative that they helped Labour by taking Tory votes that wouldn't have gone Labour is difficult to square with the vehemently anti-Labour leaflets, unless they mean that enabled them to appear as an alternative Tory party, which in fairness I don't think they did intend.
The Liberal Democrats think they have helped Labour over the line in Mid Bedfordshire.
A party source said candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay has managed to double the Lib Dems’ vote share compared with the 2019 general election - at the expense of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
The source called the by-election for Labour, saying it has been a “bad night” for the Tories.
They said the party saw a “path to victory” ahead of the contest, but door-knocking on the final day of the campaign suggested a surge in support for Labour in towns and a collapse in support for the Conservatives in the county’s villages.
In other words the Lib Dems knew all along that the stuff they were putting out about them being the real challengers to the Conservatives was a pile of sh**e. Prior to the declaration they are now trying to bail out into damage limitation mode by trying to establish in advance a pathetic narrative of a late Labour surge to disguise their own blatant lies.
Apparently Labour are ahead in a key Mid-Beds ward that’s normally a Tory stronghold . That’s according to a local councillor. Also Lib Dems saying they’ve taken a lot of votes from the Tories in villages and think that’s allowed Labour through . It’s on Jon Craig’s twitter feed .
Suspect that's the very expensive ward I helped canvass last weekend, where I was startled by the number of Labour posters. I was told that the nearest that mid-Beds gets to a university ward, with lots of retired professors and the like.
The new LibDem narrative that they helped Labour by taking Tory votes that wouldn't have gone Labour is difficult to square with the vehemently anti-Labour leaflets, unless they mean that enabled them to appear as an alternative Tory party, which in fairness I don't think they did intend.
I presume it means they took votes that would not have gone Lab, and in the absence of LibDem targetting might have stayed Con. It's easy to assume that any Con>LibDem switcher would be (almost) as happy to go Con>Lab, butit's not true for all.
Apparently Labour are ahead in a key Mid-Beds ward that’s normally a Tory stronghold . That’s according to a local councillor. Also Lib Dems saying they’ve taken a lot of votes from the Tories in villages and think that’s allowed Labour through . It’s on Jon Craig’s twitter feed .
Suspect that's the very expensive ward I helped canvass last weekend, where I was startled by the number of Labour posters. I was told that the nearest that mid-Beds gets to a university ward, with lots of retired professors and the like.
The new LibDem narrative that they helped Labour by taking Tory votes that wouldn't have gone Labour is difficult to square with the vehemently anti-Labour leaflets, unless they mean that enabled them to appear as an alternative Tory party, which in fairness I don't think they did intend.
Were you knocking up in all parts of the constituency, Mr Palmer, or just the urban areas?
I had one round in Flitwick, but otherwise it was the smaller towns and villages. To be honest I'm not sufficiently familiar with the area to know exactly what I was in. You know how it is - you get 10-20 pages of voters thought to be potential supporters spread across five or six streets, but unless you have local knowledge you don't really know if those are part of a small town or most of a large village. We certainly tried hard in the villages, but with varying success - e.g. I had a pretty poor round in Marston Moretaine, where the "don't care, go away" party seemed to have a clear edge.
One thing seems certain: the LDs haven't won Mid Beds, from their own testimony. I'm not 100% convinced what they're saying about Labour winning the seat though.
Nor me. You can't believe a word the Lib Dems have said at any point in this campaign. The only thing that you can rely on is that they wouldn't be coming out with all this now unless they've come 3rd.
Been experimenting with the air fryer further this evening.
1 - They are BRILLIANT at bacon turnovers. Greggs, eat your heart out. 2 - I'm just coming to terms with how much everyone cheats by using pre-rolled pastry that comes in boxes like clingfilm. It's a fraud that's nearly as good as the real thing.
Been experimenting with the air fryer further this evening.
1 - They are BRILLIANT at bacon turnovers. Greggs, eat your heart out. 2 - I'm just coming to terms with how much everyone cheats by using pre-rolled pastry that comes in boxes like clingfilm. It's a fraud that's nearly as good as the real thing.
I simply can’t believe the alleged whispers from the count in that latest tweet from Jon Craig .
No way can Labour take Mid-Beds by 3,000 to 4,000.
With only 44% turnout that would be astonishing.
Cons at 17.5 on BF for anyone who thinks Labour haven't done it.
Mainly watching Sky - kudos to them for not having a tedious panel of arguing politicians, their coverage always manages to feel a bit more chilled but also incisive at the same time than the BBC.
If Labour do win both Sunak is lucky that attention isn’t on domestic issues . The vultures might circle but with events in the Middle East the argument will be its the wrong time .
If Labour do win both Sunak is lucky that attention isn’t on domestic issues . The vultures might circle but with events in the Middle East the argument will be its the wrong time .
That's now, but in a few weeks' time the agenda will inevitably have moved on to other things, however wrong that might be.
If Labour wins both these seats a leadership challenge against Sunak possibly comes into play. Mordaunt, Badenoch, etc.
The only way they ditch Sunak now is if God is drunk. He is nailed to the Conservative Party, and they to him, until the general election. He is the sin-eater, the one who will absorb the blame and be ejected if they lose. A blame-loofah, if you will.
If Labour wins both these seats a leadership challenge against Sunak possibly comes into play. Mordaunt, Badenoch, etc.
The only way they ditch Sunak now is if God is drunk. He is nailed to the Conservative Party, and they to him, until the general election. He is the sin-eater, the one who will absorb the blame and be ejected if they lose. A blame-loofah, if you will.
The Tories are the most ruthless political party in the world. They always ditch leaders if they think they're heading for defeat and there's more than 6 months to go before an election.
If Labour wins both these seats a leadership challenge against Sunak possibly comes into play. Mordaunt, Badenoch, etc.
The only way they ditch Sunak now is if God is drunk. He is nailed to the Conservative Party, and they to him, until the general election. He is the sin-eater, the one who will absorb the blame and be ejected if they lose. A blame-loofah, if you will.
The Tories are the most ruthless political party in the world. They always ditch leaders if they think they're heading for defeat and there's more than 6 months to go before an election.
Yes, but they have no credible alternatives. Suella has her fans but nobody wants to vote for her. Penny is beautiful but no plan. Kemi is good at talking not at doing. I'm sure there are others but I cannot recall them. They've scraped the bottom of the barrel and there's nothing left.
Been experimenting with the air fryer further this evening.
1 - They are BRILLIANT at bacon turnovers. Greggs, eat your heart out. 2 - I'm just coming to terms with how much everyone cheats by using pre-rolled pastry that comes in boxes like clingfilm. It's a fraud that's nearly as good as the real thing.
I presume it means they took votes that would not have gone Lab, and in the absence of LibDem targetting might have stayed Con. It's easy to assume that any Con>LibDem switcher would be (almost) as happy to go Con>Lab, butit's not true for all.
That's clearly true, though I think that it's much less true than it used to be - my impression is that most voters don't detect much difference between Labour and the LibDems. I don't necessarily approve of that because I'm on the left of the party, but I do think it's had the effect that ex-Tories don't feel that voting for Starmer is a terribly daring step.
The two elections do give the chance to test the hypothesis. If the swing in Tamworth is much lower, that might be because the LibDems weren't trying so hard there?
On the subject of election night gossip/misinformation, due to a particularly bad bout of insomnia the other night, i ended up watching some of the 1997 BBC coverage.
The most bizarre bit of speculation came from Mitcham and Morden, where a tory activist tells the BBC that Angela Rumbold has increased her majority.....she lost on a 16% swing unsurprisingly!
On the subject of election night gossip/misinformation, due to a particularly bad bout of insomnia the other night, i ended up watching some of the 1997 BBC coverage.
The most bizarre bit of speculation came from Mitcham and Morden, where a tory activist tells the BBC that Angela Rumbold has increased her majority.....she lost on a 16% swing unsurprisingly!
I remember that. Angela Rumbold genuinely believed her personal vote would defy the national swing. In fact, if anything, the swing against her was worse than average (if 16% is in that category).
On the subject of election night gossip/misinformation, due to a particularly bad bout of insomnia the other night, i ended up watching some of the 1997 BBC coverage.
The most bizarre bit of speculation came from Mitcham and Morden, where a tory activist tells the BBC that Angela Rumbold has increased her majority.....she lost on a 16% swing unsurprisingly!
It's a vector not a scalar. It has magnitude and direction. The magnitude increased, it's just that the direction changed... 😀
Jeez how long does it take to count these votes. Why don’t they move into the 21st century and get automatic counting .
The first by-election I took an interest in was Newbury 1993 and the result came through at about half past five in the morning. It was so late that the special election show on BBC1 had gone off air, and the only place to hear the result was on Radio Five, (not yet Live).
Comments
*Phillipson
LibDem gain from Con in Shropshire
Green gain from Con in Worcester
Local council by elections so far tonight:
LibDem gain from Con in Shropshire
Green gain from Con in Worcester
Green gain from Con in Worcestershire
https://x.com/alex__wagner__/status/1715134617622094087?s=20
https://x.com/worcsgreenparty/status/1715152399793352813?s=20
https://x.com/worcsgreenparty/status/1715154091221856418?s=20
Good night.
LD taking lifelong Tory voters who wouldn't have considered Lab may have helped, if that is what happens, Labour to come through.
@SamCoatesSky
Lib Dems think Labour have taken Mid Beds
They say the LDs have doubled their share of the vote, and taken enough Conservative votes to help Labour get over the line
We shall see
12:49 AM · Oct 20, 2023"
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
The Liberal Democrats think Labour have won it
The Liberal Democrats think they have helped Labour over the line in Mid Bedfordshire.
A party source said candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay has managed to double the Lib Dems’ vote share compared with the 2019 general election - at the expense of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
The source called the by-election for Labour, saying it has been a “bad night” for the Tories.
They said the party saw a “path to victory” ahead of the contest, but door-knocking on the final day of the campaign suggested a surge in support for Labour in towns and a collapse in support for the Conservatives in the county’s villages.
So maybe something like:
Lab 34, Con 31, LD 25, Others 10
The new LibDem narrative that they helped Labour by taking Tory votes that wouldn't have gone Labour is difficult to square with the vehemently anti-Labour leaflets, unless they mean that enabled them to appear as an alternative Tory party, which in fairness I don't think they did intend.
Been experimenting with the air fryer further this evening.
1 - They are BRILLIANT at bacon turnovers. Greggs, eat your heart out.
2 - I'm just coming to terms with how much everyone cheats by using pre-rolled pastry that comes in boxes like clingfilm. It's a fraud that's nearly as good as the real thing.
Funny old world.
Labour say still too close to call in Mid Bedfordshire
Amy Holmes
BBC Three Counties political reporter, at the Mid Bedfordshire count
As we reported earlier, the Liberal Democrats think Labour have pipped the Conservatives to the post here in Mid Bedfordshire.
But Labour sources tell me they are not putting much stock in what the Lib Dems have said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173
No way can Labour take Mid-Beds by 3,000 to 4,000.
With only a 44% turnout that would be astonishing.
Maybe someone’s trying to do something dodgy with the betting markets .
Mainly watching Sky - kudos to them for not having a tedious panel of arguing politicians, their coverage always manages to feel a bit more chilled but also incisive at the same time than the BBC.
Far better for serious candidates to hold fire and allow Sunak to take the blame for the defeat.
A fourth leader this term would deal a fatal blow to credibility for a very long time
just had a text message from a friend at the #tamworth count.quote' ,''we're fucked''. 😳
https://twitter.com/CeciliaBTory/status/1715165574911713476?t=fhdl23t0OvrpqIXlcmMqvg&s=19
Declaration close in Tamworth
Rob Mayor
West Midlands political editor, reporting from Tamworth
It is a little before 02:00 BST and we are hearing a declaration here in Tamworth could be as little as 20 minutes away."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173
All the stuff that kills you early.
When he was running for mayor of New York, he was asked what he would do if he won. He said: "Demand a recount."
I suppose serving in the House of Common isn't that bad -- as long as you avoid certain members.
The two elections do give the chance to test the hypothesis. If the swing in Tamworth is much lower, that might be because the LibDems weren't trying so hard there?
The most bizarre bit of speculation came from Mitcham and Morden, where a tory activist tells the BBC that Angela Rumbold has increased her majority.....she lost on a 16% swing unsurprisingly!