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The by-election betting as voting ends – politicalbetting.com
The by-election betting as voting ends – politicalbetting.com
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The by-election betting as voting ends – politicalbetting.com
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@REWearmouth
Hearing Labour's ahead on postal votes in Tamworth. Today's weather means that could be significant
Labour's Mid Beds campaign also apparently v positive about their chance of snatching a win... however, a Lib Dem source says they have been working smaller villages hard
10:00 PM · Oct 19, 2023"
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1715110778322165811
(and shot down by US navy)
Our thinking is we may get a result around 01:30-02:00 for Mid Bedfordshire and around 03:30-04:00 in the Staffordshire seat of Tamworth.
But that doesn't take into account the possibility of recounts if the results are close."
The BBC's take on timing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uywZ9z5FyZI
If there has been comingling of personal and party expenses - that may be another kettle of fish.
7m
BREAKING: the Liberal Democrats appear to be conceding defeat in Mid Bedfordshire already in thinly veiled internal memos
https://x.com/predictorelect/status/1715113735105159226?s=20
🌳 Tamworth is the 55th Safest Conservative Seat (42.6% Margin over Labour in 2019)
🌳 Mid Bedfordshire is the 98th Safest Conservative Seat (38.1% Margin over Labour in 2019)
Even if these seats are narrow holds today, the fact they're both competitive is ominous for them.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1714941794520027515
What about the rise of China? That had a huge impact on absolute poverty but doesn’t fit your narrative, particularly the democracy part.
Tee-hee!
Hard to shat the brand any harder in these places. So Tories beaten in both, and coming 3rd in MidBeds (I’ve said that for a while). A toss up as to who wins that one but have this instinct that Labour is a step too far so another sensational Ed Davey win.
It seems to be that over the last decade the government have successfully delegitimised the BBC such that the corporation is constantly second guessing itself. A strong, confident organisation would take responsibility for its mistakes regardless of its biases, in my view. Instead, I think the BBC is fearful of what might happen if it does admit fault.
I think we are seeing the product of a concerted attack on the BBC over the past decade.
But if the LDs are indeed conceding early, then they've wasted many months of effort. Can't fight momentum sometimes. But it would be odd to give up so soon.
Surprise, surprise.
It's not an exact science but gives you a rough idea.
Still, it is hard to argue that the poverty reduction that DID happen in reality was driven by either democracy or western values.
I mean really.
That is, you only get so far telling the voters who is the only one who can win here, they decide that regardless of who tells them.
IIRC he started to spin the need for a second referendum?
Though it is notable that they copied some parts of our economic model, but not all.
Democracy maybe not but as I said Hong Kong was certainly much richer than the rest of China when a fully democratic British colony and still is today, despite Beijing's attempts to restrict democracy there
Even if they don't make it, that was value.
No, me neither.
@AmyHolmesMedia
Spoken to Labour and Lib Dems here this evening and both agree this is too close to call.
It feels like a three horse race, which in Mid Beds is something we've not often been able to say as it's been a Conservative seat for over 90 years."
https://twitter.com/AmyHolmesMedia/status/1715118037181857928
Any observers to verification who think they could glean enough to tell something meaningful are bullshitting.
I don't think there is consistency on whether they count them first up at the count process, but with a by-election with decent turnout you'd still not see an obvious outcome so quickly unless it was like 90/10.
Knocking up the voters on election day.
We do have them make up all sorts of rules, like it not being proper to remove a PM, as both Nadine and JRM claimed, but that's just weirdness (they could simply have stuck to saying it was a really bad idea).
Unless you’re saying there were a lot of babies born with flamboyant shoes after your efforts.…
The Greens have responded with a mooted ban on SUVs in the city centre. Highly entertaining tit-for-tat.
Don’t expect people to drop everything and run to the polls. Even in households where one partner is at home all day, a significant number will wait until the other partner returns from work before voting, which they most likely will do together. If someone tells you they will vote at 6 pm make a note that getas passed on each time that road is knocked-up and do NOT visit that person again until after 6pm.
UK elections usually occur on Thursdays, which for most of is a working day. In most areas there is a rush to the polls in the early morning and early evening so the evening knock-ups are vital. If you are short of volunteers and they can only help for a part of the day ask them if they help in the evening.
Keep your Knock-Up sheets as up to date as possible so that you send your knockers-up to the area with the largest number of supporters who have not yet voted but at the same time try to ensure that every area is visited during the course of the day.
http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/knocking-up.shtml
Tories to win Beds on a split opposition vote, thanks to the sluggishness of Labour and the hubris of the Libs. Collect my winnings on blue at 2.5.
Labour to win Tamworth (just, I have no bet on).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-65988395
The “Mainstream” Party has an amazingly 90s website. I was half expecting an “Under Construction” gif and a “Best viewed in Netscape 2.0”.
https://www.mainstream.org.uk/povr.htm
And their catchy slogan:
“ Smack the Left Smack the Right ... all the Establishment are SH*TE”
But my happiness at a swollen purse was overshadowed by the disaster of the result.
Not my finest hour.
It's like how the LDs must work harder to create misleading bar charts than accurate ones.
I am fascinated to discover the English Democrats are still a thing. I assumed they'd disappeared about the same time UKIP collapsed into permanent chaos.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knocker-up
@JohnRentoul
Record Con➝Lab by-election swings
Dudley W 1994 29% gain
Selby & A 2023 24% gain
Dagenham 1994 23% hold
SE Staffs 1996 22% gain
Barking 1994 22% hold
Mid Staffs 1990 21% gain
Haven't they already had the signatures verified?
Since they are there at 10 pm, and no other votes are, then why wouldn't they be counted first?
Or am I missing something?