This doesn’t look good for the SNP at the general election – politicalbetting.com

System · October 2023

This doesn’t look good for the SNP at the general election – politicalbetting.com

The three previous losses were21 Sept, Girvan & S Carrick to C6 July, E Kilbride W to Lab15 June, Bellshill to Lab

DavidL · October 2023

I think that this overstates it, much though I would like it to be true. I suspect the SNP will retain something like 20 seats.
Oh and first apparently.

rcs1000 · October 2023

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times

This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.

DavidL · October 2023

But it must be noted that whilst we have collapsing schools, a collapsed health service, the most expensive ferries in the history of the world and by far the highest drug deaths in Europe Holyrood keeps its finger on the pulse. Yes, the Hunting with Dogs (S) Act 2023 came into force on 3rd October. Now there is a priority addressed.

CatMan · October 2023

As already mentioned by Morris_Dancer, it's a Sprint Weekend in the F1 so Qualifying starts in 15 minutes.

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.

There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.

rcs1000 · October 2023

On current trends, I'd expect the LDs to go from 4 seats (techincally 2 post boundary changes) to 5.

I predict they will win:

Edinburgh West
Fife North East - this adds a chunk of SNP-Labour battleground Glenrothes
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross - this seat gains half of the old Ross, Skye seat held by the SNP
Orkney & Shetland
Mid Dunbartonshire - which is mostly Jo Swinson's old seat

malcolmg · October 2023

DavidL said:
But it must be noted that whilst we have collapsing schools, a collapsed health service, the most expensive ferries in the history of the world and by far the highest drug deaths in Europe Holyrood keeps its finger on the pulse. Yes, the Hunting with Dogs (S) Act 2023 came into force on 3rd October. Now there is a priority addressed.

Almost as bad as the Tories nowadays David , can surely only get better when Labatory's get in

rcs1000 · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.

Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

Lab majority looks increasingly nailed on.

Between Rishi Rich and Useless Yousaf, could Keir Starmer be any more of a lucky general? With opponents like those, who needs coalition partners?

TimS · October 2023

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.

What the Dems need is for the Chinese economy to slump. It's not a big customer of US goods and services (relatively speaking), so that means cheaper imports, cheaper oil and gas prices, cheaper metal, and lower interest rates.

It's showing some signs of doing exactly this. Collapsing Chinese raw material demand in the next few years isn't out of the question. Could have the same impact on inflation and capacity in the economy (and global carbon emissions) as the collapse of communist industry in the 1990s.

Not such good news for China mind. Or Germany.

CatMan · October 2023

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.

I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?

DavidL · October 2023

rcs1000 said:
On current trends, I'd expect the LDs to go from 4 seats (techincally 2 post boundary changes) to 5.

I predict they will win:

Edinburgh West
Fife North East - this adds a chunk of SNP-Labour battleground Glenrothes
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross - this seat gains half of the old Ross, Skye seat held by the SNP
Orkney & Shetland
Mid Dunbartonshire - which is mostly Jo Swinson's old seat

I think all 5 is a push. The Scottish Liberal Democrats make SKS look like FDR in 1932. There are, to carry on the theme of a previous thread, the remains of a bird that a cat got hold of in my garden with more signs of life.

Andy_JS · October 2023

"SNP just two points ahead of Labour, newest Scotland polling shows

The Scottish National Party leads Labour by just two points in the first poll published after its heavy by-election loss in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

Support for the SNP fell by a point to put the party on 34 per cent, according to research carried out by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on Wednesday and Thursday this week.

This puts the SNP two points ahead of Labour, who are down by three points on 32 per cent, while the Conservatives in Scotland are up by six points to 21 per cent.

Data from the same pollster also reveals that only 19 per cent of voters consider Scottish independence and the union one of their top three priorities for the next election.

Philip van Scheltinga, research director at Redfield & Wilton, said: “Our polling quite clearly shows that Scottish voters have other priorities than independence. The SNP’s argument that the next General Election should be seen in Scotland as a referendum on independence has therefore fallen flat.”"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/06/rutherglen-hamilton-west-by-election-latest-results-live/

TimS · October 2023

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
What the Dems need is for the Chinese economy to slump. It's not a big customer of US goods and services (relatively speaking), so that means cheaper imports, cheaper oil and gas prices, cheaper metal, and lower interest rates.

It's showing some signs of doing exactly this. Collapsing Chinese raw material demand in the next few years isn't out of the question. Could have the same impact on inflation and capacity in the economy (and global carbon emissions) as the collapse of communist industry in the 1990s.

Not such good news for China mind. Or Germany.

And this one, from mr black swan, is intriguing.

"Nonlinearity: Could Ozempic cause a deflation in the price of food?
A mere 1% drop in demand can cause a significant overload."

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1710307490292736471?s=20

rcs1000 · October 2023

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?

On the contrary, rising unemployment (or at least lower than expected new jobs numbers) would allow the Fed to declare inflation constrained and reduce interest rates.

Sadly, it is entirely possible that Mr DJT will arrive in power just in time for interest rates to drop.

rottenborough · October 2023

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?

Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html

JPJ2 · October 2023

Labour genuinely have nothing to offer Scotland. So I expect come the 2026 Holyrood election, they will be a distant second to the SNP, who as I pointed out on a earlier thread today, gained a majority at Holyrood in 2011, just 1 year after electing just 6 MPs to Westminster.

AND support for independence is much stronger now than in 2011

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
What the Dems need is for the Chinese economy to slump. It's not a big customer of US goods and services (relatively speaking), so that means cheaper imports, cheaper oil and gas prices, cheaper metal, and lower interest rates.

It's showing some signs of doing exactly this. Collapsing Chinese raw material demand in the next few years isn't out of the question. Could have the same impact on inflation and capacity in the economy (and global carbon emissions) as the collapse of communist industry in the 1990s.

Not such good news for China mind. Or Germany.

The irony being that it was the rise of Chinese industry that led to a collapse of inflation, as globalisation led to a flood of cheap imports coming in.

Leon · October 2023

Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery

Leon · October 2023

Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way

londonpubman · October 2023

Looks like SNP might get that 1979 feeling...

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

JPJ2 said:
Labour genuinely have nothing to offer Scotland. So I expect come the 2026 Holyrood election, they will be a distant second to the SNP, who as I pointed out on a earlier thread today, gained a majority at Holyrood in 2011, just 1 year after electing just 6 MPs to Westminster.

AND support for independence is much stronger now than in 2011

What do the SNP under Useless have to offer Scotland though?

Under Sturgeon in 2011 they offered independence. Today . . . ?

Doesn't even seem to be a priority anymore.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way

In economy....surely not.

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way
In economy....surely not.

Doesn't sound like something to say well done to, if true.

Leon · October 2023

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html

Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html

The problem is when you have had things like massive food inflation and interest rates you haven't seen in 20 years, its kinda of harder sell to say lifes great because employment numbers are doing well.

Then the drugs epidemic, the homeless problem, the crime, etc etc etc.

Big thing about the drugs epidemic is that it isn't just contained to say San Francisco, loads of rural places who already went through pain pills explosion, now seeing all the effects of this.

Theuniondivvie · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

JPJ2 said:
Labour genuinely have nothing to offer Scotland. So I expect come the 2026 Holyrood election, they will be a distant second to the SNP, who as I pointed out on a earlier thread today, gained a majority at Holyrood in 2011, just 1 year after electing just 6 MPs to Westminster.

AND support for independence is much stronger now than in 2011
What do the SNP under Useless have to offer Scotland though?

Under Sturgeon in 2011 they offered independence. Today . . . ?

Doesn't even seem to be a priority anymore.

Under Sturgeon in 2011?
Not a Scotch fish expert obvs.

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff

The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

Be interested to know about US pay? How is that doing vs inflation / mortgage rate rises? Particularly when you get away from the big cities.

Carnyx · October 2023

DavidL said:
But it must be noted that whilst we have collapsing schools, a collapsed health service, the most expensive ferries in the history of the world and by far the highest drug deaths in Europe Holyrood keeps its finger on the pulse. Yes, the Hunting with Dogs (S) Act 2023 came into force on 3rd October. Now there is a priority addressed.

And the new treatment rooms begin in Glasgow any day now,in the teeth of UKG opposition. Come now, let it not be said that you were unfair to the SNP.

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

Theuniondivvie said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JPJ2 said:
Labour genuinely have nothing to offer Scotland. So I expect come the 2026 Holyrood election, they will be a distant second to the SNP, who as I pointed out on a earlier thread today, gained a majority at Holyrood in 2011, just 1 year after electing just 6 MPs to Westminster.

AND support for independence is much stronger now than in 2011
What do the SNP under Useless have to offer Scotland though?

Under Sturgeon in 2011 they offered independence. Today . . . ?

Doesn't even seem to be a priority anymore.
Under Sturgeon in 2011?
Not a Scotch fish expert obvs.

I meant Salmond. Was thinking Salmond too, not sure why my fingers typed the other, something fishy going on there.

Carnyx · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

JPJ2 said:
Labour genuinely have nothing to offer Scotland. So I expect come the 2026 Holyrood election, they will be a distant second to the SNP, who as I pointed out on a earlier thread today, gained a majority at Holyrood in 2011, just 1 year after electing just 6 MPs to Westminster.

AND support for independence is much stronger now than in 2011
What do the SNP under Useless have to offer Scotland though?

Under Sturgeon in 2011 they offered independence. Today . . . ?

Doesn't even seem to be a priority anymore.

... [already resolved]

boulay · October 2023

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way

I’ve wondered occasionally whether, if you could only afford to fly first/club one way and economy the other which way round is best?

If you take the more comfortable option on the way there, you start the holiday more relaxed, your holiday has started earlier in a way. You come back economy and it’s more grim but then your holiday is over and it’s a stark reminder that the holiday is over and normality will resume.

If you do it the other way round you have a more uncomfortable journey there but it doesn’t matter because you get to your destination and luxuriate so the journey didn’t matter and the return in first/club softens the blow of the end of your holiday and just extends that feeling of relaxation to the last moment.

DecrepiterJohnL · October 2023

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way

The previous thread reckoned BA uses the wrong terminal for the Liz Line. Gazette readers might like to know that, assuming it is true.

DecrepiterJohnL · October 2023

Rishi Sunak admits he works out to Britney Spears
https://metro.co.uk/2023/10/06/rishi-sunak-britney-spears-peloton-19617725/

For any PBers who missed the PM's appearance on This Morning (available on ITVx).

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

boulay said:

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way
I’ve wondered occasionally whether, if you could only afford to fly first/club one way and economy the other which way round is best?

If you take the more comfortable option on the way there, you start the holiday more relaxed, your holiday has started earlier in a way. You come back economy and it’s more grim but then your holiday is over and it’s a stark reminder that the holiday is over and normality will resume.

If you do it the other way round you have a more uncomfortable journey there but it doesn’t matter because you get to your destination and luxuriate so the journey didn’t matter and the return in first/club softens the blow of the end of your holiday and just extends that feeling of relaxation to the last moment.

You might also want to factor in which way you are more likely to struggle with the time difference e.g. going to US, particularly East Coast, I find really easy. Coming back it much harder, if you don't get any sleep on the way back, I find jetlag is bad when I get back to the UK.

For this reason, I would much prefer the business option on the way back.

Leon · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.

There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage

Leon · October 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way
The previous thread reckoned BA uses the wrong terminal for the Liz Line. Gazette readers might like to know that, assuming it is true.

I use the Heathrow express. More expensive but very quick and Paddington is then just a 10 minute cab ride from my home

viewcode · October 2023

Leon said:
Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising...

It's almost as if...GDP is not an adequate metric!

Hmm. I'll just leave that there for a bit.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage

I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137

BartholomewRoberts · October 2023

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage

He's been pandering to anti-vaxxers.

He was supporting BS alternative medicine to real medicine. Horse tranquilisers and injecting bleach as treatment don't boost life expectancy.

Treating drugs as a medical/educational concern rather than a law and order/racism one would be a big step forward to.

Leon · October 2023

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137

Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc

OnlyLivingBoy · October 2023

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage

The American opioid crisis wasn't created by the Mexican cartels.

Leon · October 2023

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
The American opioid crisis wasn't created by the Mexican cartels.

Fentanyl and Tranq have almost nothing to do with the opioid crisis and all the Sackler shit

Theuniondivvie · October 2023

Carnyx said:

DavidL said:
But it must be noted that whilst we have collapsing schools, a collapsed health service, the most expensive ferries in the history of the world and by far the highest drug deaths in Europe Holyrood keeps its finger on the pulse. Yes, the Hunting with Dogs (S) Act 2023 came into force on 3rd October. Now there is a priority addressed.
And the new treatment rooms begin in Glasgow any day now,in the teeth of UKG opposition. Come now, let it not be said that you were unfair to the SNP.

Tbf I recall DavidL speaking in favour of treatment rooms, but he didn’t seem to make the connection between their much delayed commencement and the party/government he supported.

Pretty sure I criticised the SNP a while back for being scaredy cats over this, subsequent events suggest they should have been a lot firmer.

Leon · October 2023

Fentanyl in America comes mainly from Mexico then China then India, sometimes a combination thereof

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20 Fentanyl Flow in the United States_0.pdf

JPJ2 · October 2023

Bartholomew Roberts.

Ignoring your Sturgeon 2011 faux pas (as pointed out by Theuniondivvie), there is unlikely to be much worry in Scotland at Holyrood 2026 that the Tories are going to be the largest party, so there will be a comparison made with Labour run Wales, which will not flatter Labour, especially as they have been in power there since 1999.

In spite of comments by some to the contrary, the SNP do want independence , and the blocking of a referendum by a Labour Westminster government will progressively irritate the electorate.

Those who suggest that independence will fade away are liable to be presented with the Lord George Robertson award for political naivety (devolution will kill the SNP stone dead or some such nonsense was his foolish claim)

TimS · October 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Rishi Sunak admits he works out to Britney Spears
https://metro.co.uk/2023/10/06/rishi-sunak-britney-spears-peloton-19617725/

For any PBers who missed the PM's appearance on This Morning (available on ITVx).

Well we certainly know that he's toxic.

boulay · October 2023

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc

All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.

Nigelb · October 2023

.

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin...

Um ?

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

rcs1000 said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:
"Modern Railways
@Modern_Railways

To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955
Would be interesting to see the hotspots for which bit is growing fastest and at what times.

Paddington to City is one journey that has massively changed.
Heathrow to my flat is:

90 (uncomfortable) minutes by taxi
55 (expensive) minutes by Heathrow Express plus Taxi
38 (cheap and efficient) minutes by the Elizabeth Line

It helps, of course, that I'm three minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station.

That said, the Elizabeth line has put me right off British Airways. Simply, because the Elizabeth Line goes to Terminals 2/3, I'd much rather travel by Virgin, American or United, than trek out to Terminal 5.

Terminal 5 has been served by the Elizabeth Line since last May.
Photo taken June 2022.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

Leon said:
Fentanyl in America comes mainly from Mexico then China then India, sometimes a combination thereof

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20 Fentanyl Flow in the United States_0.pdf

My understanding was originally it was nearly 100% from China, then Chinese government made it illegal to produce, but not the precursor chemicals. So China manufactures the base chemicals, which get imported by the Cartels in Mexico, who then turn it into Fentanyl and ship it over the border.

Theuniondivvie · October 2023

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
The American opioid crisis wasn't created by the Mexican cartels.

C’mon, in 2017 Trump said he was going to fix the opioid crisis caused by the Sackler cartel. He did, right?

kinabalu · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.

Yep. I recall from trading days how strong employment numbers - 'US payrolls' on a Friday - were terrible for Markets. What a crazy system, I used to think, *do* think. What's it called this strange construction? I asked all and sundry around me. They all told me the same thing and in the exact same words. "Capitalism mate. Great innit". I'd nod and grin, like the spineless collaborator I am.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2023

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.

Fake news...I posted a link to video about "fake" origins of Italian food on last thread.

I am now off to get some genuine Parmesan from Wisconsin for my tea....

Leon · October 2023

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:
Fentanyl in America comes mainly from Mexico then China then India, sometimes a combination thereof

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20 Fentanyl Flow in the United States_0.pdf
My understanding was originally it was nearly 100% from China, then Chinese government made it illegal to produce, but not the precursor chemicals. So China manufactures the base chemicals, which get imported by the Cartels in Mexico, who then turn it into Fentanyl and ship it over the border.

Yep. Basically

Nigelb · October 2023

Leon said:
Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery

Seoul has some rather nice bits.

TimS · October 2023

Leon is right that BA have the most cheerful, actually human cabin crew. The only crew who I feel treat me like a peer, a fellow traveller, someone to see eye to eye with, rather than either a privileged customer who must be kowtowed to (Emirates, Qatar, Singapore etc), a piece of machinery to be maintained in good condition (Lufthansa, KLM, SAS, JAL) or a pesky annoyance ruining what would otherwise be a peaceful customer-free flight (any US airline, Ryanair etc).

The only cabin staff I ever see sharing a joke with passengers rather than each other are BA.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc

Nah, you're just a wokey, lefty, Primrose Hill (borders) sort of chap, PRETENDING to be all GB News-y

kinabalu · October 2023

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage

Donald Trump and "ideas" shouldn't be in shooting distance let alone in the same sentence.

No_Offence_Alan · October 2023

BartholomewRoberts said:

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
What the Dems need is for the Chinese economy to slump. It's not a big customer of US goods and services (relatively speaking), so that means cheaper imports, cheaper oil and gas prices, cheaper metal, and lower interest rates.

It's showing some signs of doing exactly this. Collapsing Chinese raw material demand in the next few years isn't out of the question. Could have the same impact on inflation and capacity in the economy (and global carbon emissions) as the collapse of communist industry in the 1990s.

Not such good news for China mind. Or Germany.
The irony being that it was the rise of Chinese industry that led to a collapse of inflation, as globalisation led to a flood of cheap imports coming in.

This. We have been told that financial tightening by central banks should not be used when the cause of the inflation is supply-side (COVID, Ukraine etc.). Yet they pumped all that QE out when the deflation was a (positive) supply side issue.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way
The previous thread reckoned BA uses the wrong terminal for the Liz Line. Gazette readers might like to know that, assuming it is true.

Nope, all three Heathrow stations have been served by the Lizzie Line since it opened in May 2022. Photo taken in June 2022 posted up-thread (this one).

Leon · October 2023

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
Donald Trump and "ideas" shouldn't be in shooting distance let alone in the same sentence.

Ask Joe Biden about Trump’s idea for a wall. An idea so bad Biden is now building more of it

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:
Also well done British Airways. An empty economy cabin. Cheerful staff. Perfect WiFi all the way. Plenty of good wine. Nice food. Landed exactly on time

Impressive. Far better than Qatar the other way
In economy....surely not.

Empty Business class, shirley.

kinabalu · October 2023

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html

This makes sense if you view Trump MAGA as a cult. Which imo is the best way to look at it. Cults don't deal in orthodox reality. They create their own.

Malmesbury · October 2023

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.

And General Boulanger invented the baguette.

MightyAlex · October 2023

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.

Though a little harder to pay the mortgage while unemployed. Presumably the new employees must not be Democrat voters or the total gain in new votes if offset by the loss of the more affluent.

Would it be unfair for the gainfully employed and mortgaged to pay a little more if it means a lower employment rate? You'd presume that the lower the rate the higher their bargaining power too.

Leon · October 2023

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery
Seoul has some rather nice bits.

Nice

Why is vanilla now making images so small? It’s a shame. It reduces the pleasure of them if you have to squint. I like the interplay of images and words - it makes PB more interesting and vivid

Leon · October 2023

CAN WE HAVE THE BIGGER IMAGES BACK, PLEASE

CatMan · October 2023

Perez doing his best to get Ricciardo a Red Bull seat.

WhisperingOracle · October 2023

Trump has zero idea how to deal with either the unacceptably large U.S. homeless, and/or prison populations, because he's beholden to the same neanderthal and regressive policies on welfare and rehabilitation/prison reform , that have blighted the U.S. since the early 1980's ; and so , as a result , he made both worse.

There's no sign of much progress on these core social issues ; the billionaire-funded thinktanks like the Kochs; still promote them, the Magaites still love them, and the Democrats are still stopped in too much of a holdingf position of Starmer-like timidity, as well as Congressional stalemate, on these issues, to fix any of them enough.

MightyAlex · October 2023

kinabalu said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Yep. I recall from trading days how strong employment numbers - 'US payrolls' on a Friday - were terrible for Markets. What a crazy system, I used to think, *do* think. What's it called this strange construction? I asked all and sundry around me. They all told me the same thing and in the exact same words. "Capitalism mate. Great innit". I'd nod and grin, like the spineless collaborator I am.

As capital's quisling, can you say why?

Is it just the reduction in bargaining power/natural rate of employment stuff or is there any more to it?

kinabalu · October 2023

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
Donald Trump and "ideas" shouldn't be in shooting distance let alone in the same sentence.
Ask Joe Biden about Trump’s idea for a wall. An idea so bad Biden is now building more of it

The USP was "Mexico are gonna pay for it". It's all just softhead barroom bigot grandstanding. Let's keep "ideas" for something a little better. The word gets devalued otherwise.

rcs1000 · October 2023

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:
On current trends, I'd expect the LDs to go from 4 seats (techincally 2 post boundary changes) to 5.

I predict they will win:

Edinburgh West
Fife North East - this adds a chunk of SNP-Labour battleground Glenrothes
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross - this seat gains half of the old Ross, Skye seat held by the SNP
Orkney & Shetland
Mid Dunbartonshire - which is mostly Jo Swinson's old seat
I think all 5 is a push. The Scottish Liberal Democrats make SKS look like FDR in 1932. There are, to carry on the theme of a previous thread, the remains of a bird that a cat got hold of in my garden with more signs of life.

Well, Edinburgh West is a gimme. They had a 4,000 majority last time around, and they've made progress at the local level, winning convincingly in the last locals. There's also a decent Labour and Conservative vote to squeeze. While I realise that Ms Jardine is not to everyone's taste, I would expect the LDs to get around half the vote next time around, and a decent majority.

Orkney & Shetland is the LibDem's longest standing constituency, they (or the Liberals) have held it since 1950, and although the SNP has made some progress there in recent years, I don't think it's going to be hard for the LDs to hold on.

North East Fife . This was the LDs sole Scottish gain in 2019. The constituency adds 14% of Glenrothes, where the SNP got 51% of the vote, and it therefore becomes notionally SNP. However... that's only about 6,000 votes in total, of which we'd expect the SNP to probably pick up 2,500. The LDs have to be mild favourites here, simply because (a) they will be able to position themselves as the challenger in the new parts of the constituency, and (b) the SNP will be down in 2024. I'd reckon they are 65-66% likely to win this seat.

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Now it gets trickier for the LDs. They barely won in 2019, holding on by just 200 votes. The constituency grabs half of Ross, Skye and Lochaber which went 48% SNP, 25% LD at the last election. If you assume the SNP is going to drop around 6-7% in 2024 (which sounds reasonable), then this will be a very tough fight. But you know, there's a pretty decent Conservative vote to squeeze. If you offered me better than 3-to-2 on the LDs, I'd probably take it.

Finally, there's Mid Dunbartonshire, which is East Dunbartonshire plus a bit. The LDs are the challengers here. They won't be disadvantaged by having Ms Swinson running a national campaign. And the SNP are down. Now, maybe the SNP should be favourites, but they certainly shouldn't be big favourites. I'd reckon similar odds to Caithness would be in order.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

On topic:

Mid Bedfordshire?

Bring it!

Leon · October 2023

This could be a record time from Economy Class BA cabin at Heathrow to door of Camden flat. Not sure I’ve ever done it in less than 87 minutes. Gonna be close

I can sense the tension across PB

Nigelb · October 2023

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery
Seoul has some rather nice bits.

Nice

Why is vanilla now making images so small? It’s a shame. It reduces the pleasure of them if you have to squint. I like the interplay of images and words - it makes PB more interesting and vivid

Yes, I was quite pleased with the pic. It's not just smaller, but muddied, too.

Mirror pond at the Korean National Museum, btw.

Leon · October 2023

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery
Seoul has some rather nice bits.

Nice

Why is vanilla now making images so small? It’s a shame. It reduces the pleasure of them if you have to squint. I like the interplay of images and words - it makes PB more interesting and vivid
Yes, I was quite pleased with the pic. It's not just smaller, but muddied, too.

Mirror pond at the Korean National Museum, btw.

Yes the photos are blurred as well as smaller. Why? Is it some bandwidth thing?

Can we have the old images back please. They were fun. I promise to post zero AI images and only one shot of food/drink per day, max

LostPassword · October 2023

TimS said:
Leon is right that BA have the most cheerful, actually human cabin crew. The only crew who I feel treat me like a peer, a fellow traveller, someone to see eye to eye with, rather than either a privileged customer who must be kowtowed to (Emirates, Qatar, Singapore etc), a piece of machinery to be maintained in good condition (Lufthansa, KLM, SAS, JAL) or a pesky annoyance ruining what would otherwise be a peaceful customer-free flight (any US airline, Ryanair etc).

The only cabin staff I ever see sharing a joke with passengers rather than each other are BA.

I haven't flown often enough to identify patterns of behaviour by airline, but there was one memorable member of United Airlines cabin crew who was very friendly with us on one flight, and we'll still sometimes wryly refer to substandard food as "delicious and nutritious" in his jaunty time in his honour.

WhisperingOracle · October 2023

Leon said:
This could be a record time from Economy Class BA cabin at Heathrow to door of Camden flat. Not sure I’ve ever done it in less than 87 minutes. Gonna be close

I can sense the tension across PB

The whole of London awaits this extraordinary news. The Evening Standard editors wait with their laser pointers poised over their screens, ready to abandon their entire night's story about Jordan's fur coat.

Leon · October 2023

LostPassword said:

TimS said:
Leon is right that BA have the most cheerful, actually human cabin crew. The only crew who I feel treat me like a peer, a fellow traveller, someone to see eye to eye with, rather than either a privileged customer who must be kowtowed to (Emirates, Qatar, Singapore etc), a piece of machinery to be maintained in good condition (Lufthansa, KLM, SAS, JAL) or a pesky annoyance ruining what would otherwise be a peaceful customer-free flight (any US airline, Ryanair etc).

The only cabin staff I ever see sharing a joke with passengers rather than each other are BA.
I haven't flown often enough to identify patterns of behaviour by airline, but there was one memorable member of United Airlines cabin crew who was very friendly with us on one flight, and we'll still sometimes wryly refer to substandard food as "delicious and nutritious" in his jaunty time in his honour.

@TimS is right that American airline staff are often grumpy. Is it coz they don’t get tips?

I am now on the Heathrow express. Exactly 1 hour gone. I could do it!

viewcode · October 2023

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.

Apparently, the biscuit is really named after Giuseppe Garibaldi.

Leon · October 2023

“Little noticed fact about the SNP.

They received just £4,000 in total donations for the most recently reported three month period.

Hardly enough to keep a camper van on the road. No wonder it was parked up.”

https://x.com/glasgowmurphy/status/1710314460370399459?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

£4k? Ouch

Stuartinromford · October 2023

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just landed LHR. London looking splendid. So incredibly green. There surely isn’t a great city like it - for greenery
Seoul has some rather nice bits.

Nice

Why is vanilla now making images so small? It’s a shame. It reduces the pleasure of them if you have to squint. I like the interplay of images and words - it makes PB more interesting and vivid
Yes, I was quite pleased with the pic. It's not just smaller, but muddied, too.

Mirror pond at the Korean National Museum, btw.
Yes the photos are blurred as well as smaller. Why? Is it some bandwidth thing?

Can we have the old images back please. They were fun. I promise to post zero AI images and only one shot of food/drink per day, max

Rishi has run a spreadsheet and concluded that it's an unnecessary luxury.

(I have no evidence for this whatsoever. But I do think the Prime Minister's reputation is now so dismal that about 62 percent of the population would believe it.)

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

TimS said:
Leon is right that BA have the most cheerful, actually human cabin crew. The only crew who I feel treat me like a peer, a fellow traveller, someone to see eye to eye with, rather than either a privileged customer who must be kowtowed to (Emirates, Qatar, Singapore etc), a piece of machinery to be maintained in good condition (Lufthansa, KLM, SAS, JAL) or a pesky annoyance ruining what would otherwise be a peaceful customer-free flight (any US airline, Ryanair etc).

The only cabin staff I ever see sharing a joke with passengers rather than each other are BA.
I haven't flown often enough to identify patterns of behaviour by airline, but there was one memorable member of United Airlines cabin crew who was very friendly with us on one flight, and we'll still sometimes wryly refer to substandard food as "delicious and nutritious" in his jaunty time in his honour.
@TimS is right that American airline staff are often grumpy. Is it coz they don’t get tips?

I am now on the Heathrow express. Exactly 1 hour gone. I could do it!

I first did the Heathrow Express back in 1998...

kinabalu · October 2023

MightyAlex said:

kinabalu said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Yep. I recall from trading days how strong employment numbers - 'US payrolls' on a Friday - were terrible for Markets. What a crazy system, I used to think, *do* think. What's it called this strange construction? I asked all and sundry around me. They all told me the same thing and in the exact same words. "Capitalism mate. Great innit". I'd nod and grin, like the spineless collaborator I am.
As capital's quisling, can you say why?

Is it just the reduction in bargaining power/natural rate of employment stuff or is there any more to it?

Not as deep as that. The idea is if jobs are booming it means interest rates are going up and this is bad for asset prices in the short term. Which is all that most traders are bothered about.

londonpubman · October 2023

Sunil_Prasannan said:
On topic:

Mid Bedfordshire?

Bring it!

LAB good bet for a top 3 finish there 👍

WhisperingOracle · October 2023

Talking of airlines, I had an absolutely shocking experience with Swissair recently.

Bargain-bin service with high-end prices.

Nigelb · October 2023

viewcode said:

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.
Apparently, the biscuit is really named after Giuseppe Garibaldi.

Notorious for his squashed flies.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2023

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.

General Waste invented the dust bin...

rcs1000 · October 2023

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:
"Modern Railways
@Modern_Railways

To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955
Would be interesting to see the hotspots for which bit is growing fastest and at what times.

Paddington to City is one journey that has massively changed.
Heathrow to my flat is:

90 (uncomfortable) minutes by taxi
55 (expensive) minutes by Heathrow Express plus Taxi
38 (cheap and efficient) minutes by the Elizabeth Line

It helps, of course, that I'm three minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station.

That said, the Elizabeth line has put me right off British Airways. Simply, because the Elizabeth Line goes to Terminals 2/3, I'd much rather travel by Virgin, American or United, than trek out to Terminal 5.
Terminal 5 has been served by the Elizabeth Line since last May.
Photo taken June 2022.

While that's technically true, if I go to TCR station, I have six trains an hour to Terminal 2/3, but only two to Terminal 5.

I am happy to go to the station without planning if I want to get to Terminals 2/3, but I have to plan if I want to go to 5. That's a pretty major difference.

Carnyx · October 2023

Leon said:
“Little noticed fact about the SNP.

They received just £4,000 in total donations for the most recently reported three month period.

Hardly enough to keep a camper van on the road. No wonder it was parked up.”

https://x.com/glasgowmurphy/status/1710314460370399459?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

£4k? Ouch

We discussed before the point about donation stats. In at least some cases such as the EC, IIRC, the reports are for *major* donations, not small ones, party subs, etc. The SNP relies much more on those than the Tories with their big business connections.

Note that Mr Murphy, a former Slab leader, doesn't give a source or date.

Carnyx · October 2023

viewcode said:

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.
Apparently, the biscuit is really named after Giuseppe Garibaldi.

There's always the Empire, aka Belgian, aka German biscuit.

HYUFD · October 2023

JPJ2 said:
Bartholomew Roberts.

Ignoring your Sturgeon 2011 faux pas (as pointed out by Theuniondivvie), there is unlikely to be much worry in Scotland at Holyrood 2026 that the Tories are going to be the largest party, so there will be a comparison made with Labour run Wales, which will not flatter Labour, especially as they have been in power there since 1999.

In spite of comments by some to the contrary, the SNP do want independence , and the blocking of a referendum by a Labour Westminster government will progressively irritate the electorate.

Those who suggest that independence will fade away are liable to be presented with the Lord George Robertson award for political naivety (devolution will kill the SNP stone dead or some such nonsense was his foolish claim)

No, it will progressively irritate Nationalist elements of the electorate. However as last night's results show they are smaller than they were in 2015.

Indeed on the swing last night it is not impossible Sarwar could replace Yousaf as FM by the end of 2026

Carnyx · October 2023

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

DavidL said:
But it must be noted that whilst we have collapsing schools, a collapsed health service, the most expensive ferries in the history of the world and by far the highest drug deaths in Europe Holyrood keeps its finger on the pulse. Yes, the Hunting with Dogs (S) Act 2023 came into force on 3rd October. Now there is a priority addressed.
And the new treatment rooms begin in Glasgow any day now,in the teeth of UKG opposition. Come now, let it not be said that you were unfair to the SNP.
Tbf I recall DavidL speaking in favour of treatment rooms, but he didn’t seem to make the connection between their much delayed commencement and the party/government he supported.

Pretty sure I criticised the SNP a while back for being scaredy cats over this, subsequent events suggest they should have been a lot firmer.

Re the rooms, there would be an issue over insurance, I expect. UKG screaming and ejecting teddies = doubtful legality = insurers skittish, no way can the medics do this ...

viewcode · October 2023

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.
Apparently, the biscuit is really named after Giuseppe Garibaldi.
Notorious for his squashed flies.

You can get medicine for that.

(Here all week folks! Have you tried the chicken?)

boulay · October 2023

…

Carnyx said:

viewcode said:

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

CatMan said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:
US Jobs surge

"Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times
This is not good news for the Democrats.

So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
There's something wrong with a system whereby a strong jobs market is considered bad news.
Middle class families will be struggling with rising interest rates. Yes, they'll still be able to eat, but they'll be feeling poorer than they were.
I can't see how rising unemployment would be good for the Dems, so they're pretty much screwed whatever happens?
Will Voters Send In the Clowns?

As a recent analysis in The Economist pointed out, given the historical relationship between economic fundamentals and sentiment, you would have expected Americans to be feeling pretty good about the economy right now. Instead, they’re feeling very gloomy — or at least telling pollsters that they feel gloomy. The Economist, not mincing words, says that “Americans’ opinions about the state of the economy have diverged from reality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/opinion/will-voters-send-in-the-clowns.html
Perhaps voters have noticed the collapse in American life expectancy? The ravages of drug addiction ? The homeless encamped in their great cities? The rise in crime and the flood of illegal
migrants?

Yet they’re meant to be happy just cause GDP per cap is ostensibly rising and there’s full employment. “Diverging from reality”. Pff
The collapse in life expectancy happened under Trump and was in no small part because of Covid.

Maybe they should take their vaccines and not ingest other drugs instead.
There are many reasons why life quality for millions of Americans is in decline. None of them is anything to do with Trump

Indeed Trump is the one politician of any hue who has an idea to solve the drugs problem. Wade into Mexico and treat the cartels like a mortal and military enemy. That might actually work. I can’t think of anything else at this late extreme stage
I remember something about a wall....

Biden approves new section of border wall as Mexico crossings rise....

In 2020, Mr Biden promised he would not build another foot of wall if elected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137
Trump is a bad dangerous bastard. But, awkwardly, he does have good ideas and he thinks outside the box

I know PB hates hearing this but I can see why Americans vote for him

Yes yes I’m a fascist etc
All bad dangerous bastards have the odd good idea. Hitler famously invented the goose step having realised that one large leg movement was more efficient than two smaller steps. Mussolini invented Tiramisu, Pol Pot invented the pot and an JK Rowling invented anti-trans sentiment.
And General Boulanger invented the baguette.
Apparently, the biscuit is really named after Giuseppe Garibaldi.
There's always the Empire, aka Belgian, aka German biscuit.

Who can forget king Leopold’s venture into the fruit juice for lunchbox market when he invented Um-bongo.

Leon · October 2023

I’m in the cab. This could happen

GarethoftheVale2 · October 2023

Wings has some interesting analysis suggesting that Lab's victory in Rutherglen isn't as good as it looks:

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-surge/#more-139909

boulay · October 2023

…

Leon said:
I’m in the cab. This could happen

Unless there is a detour via Tirana.

This doesn’t look good for the SNP at the general election – politicalbetting.com

Comments