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YouGov – voters want an early election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,745
edited October 2023 in General
imageYouGov – voters want an early election – politicalbetting.com

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  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,334
    Interesting that LDs are more evenly split between 2023 and Spring 2024, whereas Labour voters are much more in the "election asap" bucket. I wonder why?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,838
    edited October 2023
    Yes. I think if this downward spiral is not arrested, Sunak may end up with little choice but to go for May whatever.

    You say he wouldn't risk an election if he can wait for things to improve, but if waiting for things to improve risks him not getting to the election at all because the locals are unpromising and the letter writers pens are being unfurled, that would be a worse fate for him than the risk of a heavy GE defeat.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,555
    Too right. I'm certainly very keen on being given the opportunity to kick the Tory Party up the arse as soon as possible.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Is Rishi frit?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @JenWilliams_FT

    Oh my god how is it the night before the prime minister’s speech and this level of chaos and speculation regarding the country’s biggest infrastructure project is still trundling on

    @JenWilliams_FT

    I know it sounds like an obvious point but wtaf doesn’t bear overstating
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,838
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenWilliams_FT

    Oh my god how is it the night before the prime minister’s speech and this level of chaos and speculation regarding the country’s biggest infrastructure project is still trundling on

    @JenWilliams_FT

    I know it sounds like an obvious point but wtaf doesn’t bear overstating

    I'd love to see how the MEN would have played it with our Jen still in charge.

    There'd be scorch marks on Rishi.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,455
    Pro_Rata said:

    Yes. I think if this downward spiral is not arrested, Sunak may end up with little choice but to go for May whatever.

    You say he wouldn't risk an election if he can wait for things to improve, but if waiting for things to improve risks him not getting to the election at all because the locals are unpromising and the letter writers pens are being unfurled, that would be a worse fate for him than the risk of a heavy GE defeat.

    Would it be worse? Maybe but I'm not convinced. It is not even certain Rishi would be ousted unless an alternative leader polls better.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,555
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenWilliams_FT

    Oh my god how is it the night before the prime minister’s speech and this level of chaos and speculation regarding the country’s biggest infrastructure project is still trundling on

    @JenWilliams_FT

    I know it sounds like an obvious point but wtaf doesn’t bear overstating

    I'd love to see how the MEN would have played it with our Jen still in charge.

    There'd be scorch marks on Rishi.
    The little spiv deserves everything he's got coming.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,254
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenWilliams_FT

    Oh my god how is it the night before the prime minister’s speech and this level of chaos and speculation regarding the country’s biggest infrastructure project is still trundling on

    @JenWilliams_FT

    I know it sounds like an obvious point but wtaf doesn’t bear overstating

    I'd love to see how the MEN would have played it with our Jen still in charge.

    There'd be scorch marks on Rishi.
    Jen is better than every journalist at Sky and the Beeb combined it seems.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Is Rishi frit?

    Included with the New Rishi Meal Deal?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,278
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenWilliams_FT

    Oh my god how is it the night before the prime minister’s speech and this level of chaos and speculation regarding the country’s biggest infrastructure project is still trundling on

    @JenWilliams_FT

    I know it sounds like an obvious point but wtaf doesn’t bear overstating

    Thing is... in his head, it probably all made sense.

    Cut expensive thing that he never particularly wanted anyway, use some of the savings for little things to keep the little people happy and the rest for other things he wanted, like tax cuts. It would be popular and a lovely surprise to tell everyone about in his speech.

    It's just that that version of reality got badly duffed up when it met other peoples' realities. And whilst some "you can't do that"s are just people defending their turf, other "you can't do that"s are because you really can't do that without breaking something important.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,019
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Is Rishi frit?

    Included with the New Rishi Meal Deal?
    With free covid sauce?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Farooq said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Considering OGH's many contributions AND ongoing struggles of UK to connect with itself, respectfully pray, that when my long-standing dream of a Pneumatic Tube connecting Woolwich with Wick in less than ten minutes - WOOSH! - that the Bedford way station be named the Smithson Spout.

    Assuming a straight line distance of 800km, and uniform acceleration across the whole first half (and uniform deceleration in the second half), your acceleration would need to be a nippy 8.9ms-2, similar to acceleration due to gravity on earth.
    When you reach halfway (Newcastle, since you ask), you'll be hurtling along a little under 10000kmh-1.

    Just one problem: if there's air in the tube, your body will fragment and you'll arrive as a warm slurry.
    No doubt some bugs to work out!

    Thus first 100 travelers get half-price return AND free souvenir travel mug, to compensate for such inconveniences.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,661
    United's desperate attempts to commit suicide seem to be in vain, so far.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,273
    Benpointer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Not too worried about HS2 in the long-term, although I am disappointed by this decision.

    The really important one to build it to Euston has been made and it can always be revitalised and extended from its core base to Crewe, Manchester and Leeds in future, which might even happen in the next Parliament.

    I suspect it would be rescoped/reconstructed first though.

    When you stop a megaproject for a year it normally creates a delay of about five years because you can't just press and unpress the pause button; all the set up and mobilisation costs are sunk and you have to go back to near enough square one and rerecruit/reprocure and get the whole delivery organisation all set up again in a competitive market, and that takes time.

    So HS2 can happen in the longer-term (still an option) but this punts it way into the future.

    It's an act of gross vandalism by Sunak. He should delay any decision until after a GE. By all means put what he intends to do in his manifesto. But as it stands he's just going to cause 5-6 years of pointless delay, given Labour will reinstate the Manchester link after the GE.
    This will further increase the costs too, I'd guess? Introducing yet more uncertainty.

    Labour could do us a favour and guarantee it to Leeds and Manchester.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,838
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    Is that the Starship Enterprise just dropping out of warp speed in the sky?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,987
    Benpointer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Not too worried about HS2 in the long-term, although I am disappointed by this decision.

    The really important one to build it to Euston has been made and it can always be revitalised and extended from its core base to Crewe, Manchester and Leeds in future, which might even happen in the next Parliament.

    I suspect it would be rescoped/reconstructed first though.

    When you stop a megaproject for a year it normally creates a delay of about five years because you can't just press and unpress the pause button; all the set up and mobilisation costs are sunk and you have to go back to near enough square one and rerecruit/reprocure and get the whole delivery organisation all set up again in a competitive market, and that takes time.

    So HS2 can happen in the longer-term (still an option) but this punts it way into the future.

    It's an act of gross vandalism by Sunak. He should delay any decision until after a GE. By all means put what he intends to do in his manifesto. But as it stands he's just going to cause 5-6 years of pointless delay, given Labour will reinstate the Manchester link after the GE.
    Oh, I don't think that can be taken for granted. Keir has been far from clear that he'll reinstate the 2030 ban on ICE vehicles, and I think he'll check the polling very carefully before he does anything on HS2. More likely he'd claim that it was 'too late' or something like that. I appreciate that this is of no consequence, as he has no principles, but SKS has spoken against HS2 in parliament.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,727
    Let's have the GE Spring 2024 cos inflation will be gone by then 😈
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,377
    Man Utd, ha ha ha!!!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,377
    DavidL said:

    United's desperate attempts to commit suicide seem to be in vain, so far.

    Successful now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,650
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    Is that the Starship Enterprise just dropping out of warp speed in the sky?
    Leon will be along shortly to explain that it's a UFO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,389
    Casino_Royale said:

    Not too worried about HS2 in the long-term, although I am disappointed by this decision.

    The really important one to build it to Euston has been made and it can always be revitalised and extended from its core base to Crewe, Manchester and Leeds in future, which might even happen in the next Parliament.

    I suspect it would be rescoped/reconstructed first though.

    When you stop a megaproject for a year it normally creates a delay of about five years because you can't just press and unpress the pause button; all the set up and mobilisation costs are sunk and you have to go back to near enough square one and rerecruit/reprocure and get the whole delivery organisation all set up again in a competitive market, and that takes time.

    So HS2 can happen in the longer-term (still an option) but this punts it way into the future.

    So about 2050 for Manchester, then ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    Is that the Starship Enterprise just dropping out of warp speed in the sky?
    Leon will be along shortly to explain that it's a UFO.
    Ahem! I think you mean UAP!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,494
    edited October 2023
    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,650
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    Is that the Starship Enterprise just dropping out of warp speed in the sky?
    Leon will be along shortly to explain that it's a UFO.
    Ahem! I think you mean UAP!
    Whatever
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,661
    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,980
    Carnyx said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Is Rishi frit?

    Included with the New Rishi Meal Deal?
    With free covid sauce?
    I'm still waiting for "get eaten out to help out"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Yea 216, No 210 - Office of Speaker of US House of Representatives declared vacant.

    Kevin McCarthy is out. But who will be in? Kevin McCarthy?

    NYT - Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is named interim speaker under a law passed after the Sept. 11 attacks in the event of a vacancy in the office.

    SSI - And "Speaker Pro Tem" McHenry just called a recess, banged the gavel and House is adjourned "pending the call of the chair'.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,046
    On Topic

    Tough voters dont decide the date

    They do decide the outcome though
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,254
    Farooq said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    This will sound passive aggressive but it's not meant that way: why should I care?
    Because America hasn't got a Budget at the minute, only a few weeks continuance, and if one can't be passed then the US Government will shortly go into shutdown and throw havoc upon the markets.

    Between the Democrats, the GOP who don't want to drive over the cliffedge and the Trump loons who do, nobody has a majority.

    In a sane world a rational Republican would make a deal with the Democrats to keep the lights on in America.

    Otherwise the GOP will wholeheartedly turn the House over to the likes of Gaetz, who makes Braverman look like a fluffy and welcoming individual in comparison.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,672
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Farooq said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Considering OGH's many contributions AND ongoing struggles of UK to connect with itself, respectfully pray, that when my long-standing dream of a Pneumatic Tube connecting Woolwich with Wick in less than ten minutes - WOOSH! - that the Bedford way station be named the Smithson Spout.

    Assuming a straight line distance of 800km, and uniform acceleration across the whole first half (and uniform deceleration in the second half), your acceleration would need to be a nippy 8.9ms-2, similar to acceleration due to gravity on earth.
    When you reach halfway (Newcastle, since you ask), you'll be hurtling along a little under 10000kmh-1.

    Just one problem: if there's air in the tube, your body will fragment and you'll arrive as a warm slurry.
    No doubt some bugs to work out!

    Thus first 100 travelers get half-price return AND free souvenir travel mug, to compensate for such inconveniences.
    You are Elon Musk and I claim my £5.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,882
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    Is that the Starship Enterprise just dropping out of warp speed in the sky?
    Is it Sunak’s helicopter heading to Manchester, in order not to have to use the train?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,726
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    On Sunday, on the way to Brum and Wolverhampton to do the new tram extension, I took some shots of HS2 from the Chiltern main line near Denham.



    So let's run HS2 from OOC to Denham, segue to the Chiltern Line and terminate in Kidderminster?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,254
    Farooq said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Farooq said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    This will sound passive aggressive but it's not meant that way: why should I care?
    Because America hasn't got a Budget at the minute, only a few weeks continuance, and if one can't be passed then the US Government will shortly go into shutdown and throw havoc upon the markets.

    Between the Democrats, the GOP who don't want to drive over the cliffedge and the Trump loons who do, nobody has a majority.

    In a sane world a rational Republican would make a deal with the Democrats to keep the lights on in America.

    Otherwise the GOP will wholeheartedly turn the House over to the likes of Gaetz, who makes Braverman look like a fluffy and welcoming individual in comparison.
    I suspect any market havoc will be limited in time and scope though?
    Maybe. But we're over a year from the next election and they can't call early ones so someone has to blink or this is going to be a nightmare.

    Last shutdown was under Trump and lasted 35 days and there seems even less room to compromise now, they're estimated to cause tens of billions of lasting damage each time it happens.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Farooq said:

    If Joe Biden AND Kamala Harris die right now, the new US president would be... Patty Murray.

    I'm not ashamed to tell you I have NEVER heard of her.

    Yours truly on other hand, met her over thirty years ago. For what that's worth, either way.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Wolverhampton on Sunday. London Northwestern Railway trolling Brexiteers and our tame Russian troll @Dura_Ace!




  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,921
    I suspect the next election will be summer or autumn next year anyway
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Farooq said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Considering OGH's many contributions AND ongoing struggles of UK to connect with itself, respectfully pray, that when my long-standing dream of a Pneumatic Tube connecting Woolwich with Wick in less than ten minutes - WOOSH! - that the Bedford way station be named the Smithson Spout.

    Assuming a straight line distance of 800km, and uniform acceleration across the whole first half (and uniform deceleration in the second half), your acceleration would need to be a nippy 8.9ms-2, similar to acceleration due to gravity on earth.
    When you reach halfway (Newcastle, since you ask), you'll be hurtling along a little under 10000kmh-1.

    Just one problem: if there's air in the tube, your body will fragment and you'll arrive as a warm slurry.
    No doubt some bugs to work out!

    Thus first 100 travelers get half-price return AND free souvenir travel mug, to compensate for such inconveniences.
    You are Elon Musk and I claim my £5.
    Which you may claim in Kryptonian crypto . . . from convenient kiosk on the far side of Uranus . . .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @EthanDaviesMEN

    Some maths: if the Sky News HS2 report is right, then it could mean it’s slower to go from Mcr to London via HS2

    Current Mcr to Ldn: 2h6m

    Ldn to Birm via HS2: 52m + Current Birm to Mcr on WCML 1h20m-ish = 2h12m-ish

    So ironically, for speed, you’ll NOT want to get HS2
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,315
    Farooq said:

    If Joe Biden AND Kamala Harris die right now, the new US president would be... Patty Murray.

    I'm not ashamed to tell you I have NEVER heard of her.

    Don't the Americans have a day named after her?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,555
    Scott_xP said:

    @EthanDaviesMEN

    Some maths: if the Sky News HS2 report is right, then it could mean it’s slower to go from Mcr to London via HS2

    Current Mcr to Ldn: 2h6m

    Ldn to Birm via HS2: 52m + Current Birm to Mcr on WCML 1h20m-ish = 2h12m-ish

    So ironically, for speed, you’ll NOT want to get HS2

    Rishi's going to lose his temper when he's asked to explain that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,661
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    So if they had been there it would have been even less close. Steve Scalise seems to be the favourite of the nutter wing but I have no idea if he would have broad enough support. The break up of the GOP must be a real possibility after this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,921
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    Short term thinking by the Democrats, McCarthy was actually on the moderate wing of the House GOP.

    It took multiple rounds to elect McCarthy Speaker last time and is likely to take even longer this time
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    The Washington Post said today that the Democrat House leadership should keep McCarthy in office by abstaining from the vote. Looks like instead they have thrown their lot in with Matt Gaetz and his loons. I'm sure they will feel pleased with themselves. Not sure how it will look to many in the US though.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,476
    edited October 2023
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @EthanDaviesMEN

    Some maths: if the Sky News HS2 report is right, then it could mean it’s slower to go from Mcr to London via HS2

    Current Mcr to Ldn: 2h6m

    Ldn to Birm via HS2: 52m + Current Birm to Mcr on WCML 1h20m-ish = 2h12m-ish

    So ironically, for speed, you’ll NOT want to get HS2

    Rishi's going to lose his temper when he's asked to explain that.
    Some of the Manchester-bound trains won't stop at Birmingham, passing straight through. So I doubt it will actually come to that.

    Or, he could just say it's about capacity not speed, of course.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,254
    DavidL said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    So if they had been there it would have been even less close. Steve Scalise seems to be the favourite of the nutter wing but I have no idea if he would have broad enough support. The break up of the GOP must be a real possibility after this.
    My fear is the GOP will just capitulate to the nutters.

    Having a backbone doesn't seem to be the GOPs forte.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,835
    Brenda in the minority this time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,661
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    DavidL said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    So if they had been there it would have been even less close. Steve Scalise seems to be the favourite of the nutter wing but I have no idea if he would have broad enough support. The break up of the GOP must be a real possibility after this.
    My fear is the GOP will just capitulate to the nutters.

    Having a backbone doesn't seem to be the GOPs forte.
    They should expel the 8 and then look to do a deal with the Dems. But they won't.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,137
    Benpointer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Not too worried about HS2 in the long-term, although I am disappointed by this decision.

    The really important one to build it to Euston has been made and it can always be revitalised and extended from its core base to Crewe, Manchester and Leeds in future, which might even happen in the next Parliament.

    I suspect it would be rescoped/reconstructed first though.

    When you stop a megaproject for a year it normally creates a delay of about five years because you can't just press and unpress the pause button; all the set up and mobilisation costs are sunk and you have to go back to near enough square one and rerecruit/reprocure and get the whole delivery organisation all set up again in a competitive market, and that takes time.

    So HS2 can happen in the longer-term (still an option) but this punts it way into the future.

    It's an act of gross vandalism by Sunak. He should delay any decision until after a GE. By all means put what he intends to do in his manifesto. But as it stands he's just going to cause 5-6 years of pointless delay, given Labour will reinstate the Manchester link after the GE.
    Surely a decision like this would need to go through the commons rather than at a Tory conference?

    Saying that - would he even have the votes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    While tory activists and Mail editors wet themselves over Braverman, the real story of the day...


    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet
    ·
    6m
    Wednesday's FINANCIAL TIMES UK EDITION: Bond sell-off deepens as high rates prospects spook markets
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,254
    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    DavidL said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    So if they had been there it would have been even less close. Steve Scalise seems to be the favourite of the nutter wing but I have no idea if he would have broad enough support. The break up of the GOP must be a real possibility after this.
    My fear is the GOP will just capitulate to the nutters.

    Having a backbone doesn't seem to be the GOPs forte.
    They should expel the 8 and then look to do a deal with the Dems. But they won't.
    They should.

    But one of the 8 getting the rest of the GOP to fall in line behind them seems more likely at this rate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    You’d have to have the IQ of a fruit fly to fall for Sunaks spin tomorrow.

    And the Daily Hate is wanking over the stain on humanities speech .

    Come the revolution all those complicit in peddling hate and division will be locked up and left to rot .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,987
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    Please tell me he's not going to try and do the smoking ban and maths till 18.

    I don't think I can watch, I have a really low tolerance for cringey things.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Just incredible. Sunak will say that voters are fed up of politicians saying things and then nothing changes.

    After 13 bloody years of his party in government.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,137
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    He’ll have no problem putting this all to a vote, surely
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    Please tell me he's not going to try and do the smoking ban and maths till 18.

    I don't think I can watch, I have a really low tolerance for cringey things.
    "I will fundamentally change Britain's rail system by not changing anything beyond Birmingham."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,987
    nico679 said:

    You’d have to have the IQ of a fruit fly to fall for Sunaks spin tomorrow.

    And the Daily Hate is wanking over the stain on humanities speech .

    Come the revolution all those complicit in peddling hate and division will be locked up and left to rot .

    I must have missed your many posts spreading love and unity.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Not entirely sure the new Wolverhampton station frontage is an improvement. First pic from 2014, other two from Sunday:





  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    nico679 said:

    You’d have to have the IQ of a fruit fly to fall for Sunaks spin tomorrow.

    And the Daily Hate is wanking over the stain on humanities speech .

    Come the revolution all those complicit in peddling hate and division will be locked up and left to rot .

    I must have missed your many posts spreading love and unity.
    That was very good ! I don’t mind being criticized if it’s done with some style !
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @paulwaugh

    Well this is unusual for a PM the night before his conference speech.
    @RishiSunak pressing the flesh in the hotel bar.


    McCarthy has given him a vision of his future...
  • BobSykesBobSykes Posts: 46
    Scott_xP said:

    @EthanDaviesMEN

    Some maths: if the Sky News HS2 report is right, then it could mean it’s slower to go from Mcr to London via HS2

    Current Mcr to Ldn: 2h6m

    Ldn to Birm via HS2: 52m + Current Birm to Mcr on WCML 1h20m-ish = 2h12m-ish

    So ironically, for speed, you’ll NOT want to get HS2

    1h30 Manchester to London once Hs2 phase 1 is complete, i believe. Existing West Coast to Lichfield, new high speed line from Lichfield to London. Pass through Birmingham Interchange, not the city of Birmingham.

    Looks like some MEN journo here is falling for the common misconception that the line ends in the centre of Brum when that is simply not the case.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not entirely sure the new Wolverhampton station frontage is an improvement. First pic from 2014, other two from Sunday:





    As Bette Davis once said “ what a dump “ !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,921
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    The Washington Post said today that the Democrat House leadership should keep McCarthy in office by abstaining from the vote. Looks like instead they have thrown their lot in with Matt Gaetz and his loons. I'm sure they will feel pleased with themselves. Not sure how it will look to many in the US though.

    “Why is it that Republicans are always fighting among themselves, why aren’t they fighting the Radical Left Democrats who are destroying our Country?” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4236256-trump-questions-gop-infighting-ahead-of-vote-to-oust-mccarthy/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Louise Haigh
    @LouHaigh
    ·
    2h
    The Conservatives literally rubbished this idea in their own rail plan.

    And GM warned it could actually make things worse by *increasing* delays on the West Coast Mainline

    Only the Conservatives could draw up a plan that could actually make northern transport worse than before.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,273
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not entirely sure the new Wolverhampton station frontage is an improvement. First pic from 2014, other two from Sunday:





    Have you seen the new ones in the north of Scotland? Inverness airport etc. Those are seriously ugly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,987
    Pro_Rata said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    Please tell me he's not going to try and do the smoking ban and maths till 18.

    I don't think I can watch, I have a really low tolerance for cringey things.
    After looking at the costs, Sunak has decided that maths till 9 is perfectly adequate.
    It's a bit incongruous that he's painting himself as the tough, penny-pinching, responsible PM - BUT I've decided to totally change A levels system BECAUSE MATHS IS GOOD.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Pro_Rata said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    Please tell me he's not going to try and do the smoking ban and maths till 18.

    I don't think I can watch, I have a really low tolerance for cringey things.
    After looking at the costs, Sunak has decided that maths till 9 is perfectly adequate.
    LOL.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,137
    Pro_Rata said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    Please tell me he's not going to try and do the smoking ban and maths till 18.

    I don't think I can watch, I have a really low tolerance for cringey things.
    After looking at the costs, Sunak has decided that maths till 9 is perfectly adequate.
    Very good
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,672
    Satire is no longer possible.

    After finishing her speech, Cruella stood on a dogs tail. A guide dog too.


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Razedabode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    He’ll have no problem putting this all to a vote, surely
    Did we establish whether he needs a vote to cancel Brum to Crewe as it already has Royal Assent?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,494
    BobSykes said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @EthanDaviesMEN

    Some maths: if the Sky News HS2 report is right, then it could mean it’s slower to go from Mcr to London via HS2

    Current Mcr to Ldn: 2h6m

    Ldn to Birm via HS2: 52m + Current Birm to Mcr on WCML 1h20m-ish = 2h12m-ish

    So ironically, for speed, you’ll NOT want to get HS2

    1h30 Manchester to London once Hs2 phase 1 is complete, i believe. Existing West Coast to Lichfield, new high speed line from Lichfield to London. Pass through Birmingham Interchange, not the city of Birmingham.

    Looks like some MEN journo here is falling for the common misconception that the line ends in the centre of Brum when that is simply not the case.
    According to Wikipedia, it will be 1:40, a saving of 14 minutes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2#Journey_times
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    It is a long time since I have been so angry about politics than I am over the HS2 fuck up.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,476
    Foxy said:

    Satire is no longer possible.

    After finishing her speech, Cruella stood on a dogs tail. A guide dog too.


    She's wearing heels, and clearly not standing on it. Much as it pains me to run to her aid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,672
    rottenborough said:

    Razedabode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health

    @SkyNews

    Sky News's political editor
    @BethRigby
    put it to the prime minister that he was a "man without a mandate" - having lost the Tory leadership election last year, before being appointed weeks later without a vote from members

    He’ll have no problem putting this all to a vote, surely
    Did we establish whether he needs a vote to cancel Brum to Crewe as it already has Royal Assent?
    Is it officially cancelled or just "delayed", perhaps by leaves on the line?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,555
    rottenborough said:

    It is a long time since I have been so angry about politics than I am over the HS2 fuck up.

    The last few weeks of nonsensical ideas from the Tories, and the blatant lying and conspiracy theory garbarge, have crossed the line. I was nailed on to vote for them being basically fairly right-wing, and strongly agreeing with them regarding Ukraine, but they can do one now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Will Street resign?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,987
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh

    Well this is unusual for a PM the night before his conference speech.
    @RishiSunak pressing the flesh in the hotel bar.


    McCarthy has given him a vision of his future...

    He's finally realised which idiot is in charge and plans to find out whether getting nicely drunk will help him forget
    Isn't he teetotal? I could have that wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,389
    .
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yea 216, No 210 - Office of Speaker of US House of Representatives declared vacant.

    Kevin McCarthy is out. But who will be in? Kevin McCarthy?

    NYT - Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is named interim speaker under a law passed after the Sept. 11 attacks in the event of a vacancy in the office.

    SSI - And "Speaker Pro Tem" McHenry just called a recess, banged the gavel and House is adjourned "pending the call of the chair'.

    Looks as though he's really enjoying the job.
    https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1709310215882219700
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited October 2023
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Satire is no longer possible.

    After finishing her speech, Cruella stood on a dogs tail. A guide dog too.


    She's wearing heels, and clearly not standing on it. Much as it pains me to run to her aid.
    She wasn’t standing on it but then found out it once guided for a refugee so shuffled to inflict as much pain as possible on the poor thing .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,447
    rottenborough said:

    Will Street resign?

    I thought we couldn't afford a whole street and had downgraded to an alley?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @christopherhope

    NEW 👀
    Senior Government source tells me Rishi Sunak will announce tomorrow HS2 will be stopping at Birmingham.
    Given MPs have already voted for HS2 to go to Crewe, Tory MPs might have to be whipped to vote to end it at Birmingham. The source says this could be “very bad”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    NEW 👀
    Senior Government source tells me Rishi Sunak will announce tomorrow HS2 will be stopping at Birmingham.
    Given MPs have already voted for HS2 to go to Crewe, Tory MPs might have to be whipped to vote to end it at Birmingham. The source says this could be “very bad”.

    Ha, ha, ha.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,973
    edited October 2023
    rottenborough said:

    Louise Haigh
    @LouHaigh
    ·
    2h
    The Conservatives literally rubbished this idea in their own rail plan.

    And GM warned it could actually make things worse by *increasing* delays on the West Coast Mainline

    Only the Conservatives could draw up a plan that could actually make northern transport worse than before.

    Therefore are Labour going to commit to building it in full together with the east west rail upgrade needed by the North

    As an aside bond yields are rising worldwide due to the high-level of debt, including in the US, with sustained high interest rates

    My critic of Sunak is not the decision but the idiotic way it has been handled
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,743
    Evidently trains are woke. Everyone needs to be in a traffic jam like some kind of diesel human centipede.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Eabhal said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not entirely sure the new Wolverhampton station frontage is an improvement. First pic from 2014, other two from Sunday:





    Have you seen the new ones in the north of Scotland? Inverness airport etc. Those are seriously ugly.
    Haven't been that way since July last year, when I passed over the road bridge near the airport on the bus.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,447
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    NEW 👀
    Senior Government source tells me Rishi Sunak will announce tomorrow HS2 will be stopping at Birmingham.
    Given MPs have already voted for HS2 to go to Crewe, Tory MPs might have to be whipped to vote to end it at Birmingham. The source says this could be “very bad”.

    I am not sure what grounds the source has to suggest an improvement to merely "very bad".
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,494
    edited October 2023
    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,389
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    NEW 👀
    Senior Government source tells me Rishi Sunak will announce tomorrow HS2 will be stopping at Birmingham.
    Given MPs have already voted for HS2 to go to Crewe, Tory MPs might have to be whipped to vote to end it at Birmingham. The source says this could be “very bad”.

    "Could be" ?

    Oh, they mean from their own narrow perspective.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,120
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!"?

    So the whole thing is to get a blaze of publicity for something already announced and underway, hence good news headlines without having to commit any extra spending? Genius.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,273
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?

    I think this is why Labour are keeping quiet about it. Could be a rabbit out of the hat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,578
    @BestForBritain

    Govt's own Integrated Rail Plan:

    "Only when a new line and new platforms at Manchester Piccadilly are built can more services be accommodated. Journey times between Birmingham and Manchester are currently poor. No improvement is possible without additional track capacity."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    People my age will not now see a northern line in our life times thanks to this decision - King of the North.

    He's on Newsnight now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,525
    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

This discussion has been closed.

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