Christ....given shit always hits the fan when OGH takes a break....prepare for WWIII....glad I still have the nuclear bomb shelter in the garden I built for Trump presidency.
Best wishes for the future! I trust you will continue to lurk
FPT:
I like this way of presenting polls. Much easier to read into long term trends than either the individual polling results or, arguably, the line graphs.
Incredible medium term stability, after averaging out short term volatility. The only notable change is a 1-2% swing from Lab to LD in April, which seems to have stuck. At a guess I would say that campaigning ahead of the May locals focused voters' minds on tactical options.
Good luck Mike. Get and keep well, and I'm sure any BTL and header contributions you see fit to post will be most welcome. You sound open to coming back if the break goes well, so best of luck.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
In betting terms, this appalling management of the story points to a terrible potential problem to the Tories when it comes to the election campaign.
When the election campaign comes, parties need to close down damaging stories hard and fast. This one has been rolling on for days, and the line seems to be "Rishi is having a good old think about it and we'll let you know the outcome at some point." Plainly that is not an acceptable answer.
Apparently, rich men are travelling the world and paying out of their own pocket for consensual sex with adult men for money. Leaving aside the ethics of prostitution, am I missing something?
Apparently, rich men are travelling the world and paying out of their own pocket for consensual sex with adult men for money. Leaving aside the ethics of prostitution, am I missing something?
Not entirely consensual from the sounds of it? In which case its absolutely wrong.
And travelling the world to pay yourself is one thing. Sex trafficking and moving people to be exploited is another kettle of fish.
Following on from the definition of 'woke' discussion, can I suggest that it eludes definition in the normal sense of the term because it belongs to a special class of words which have three characteristics:
Their meaning evolves continuously They denote a clan and clan membership It is a sanctified (for some) or tainting (for others) word, meaning that its use always implies being axiomatically right or axiomatically wrong, with no further consideration required.
Discussion across boundaries is frequently discouraged and is generally fruitless.
Other words with similar overtones: left, right, progressive, centrist, conservative.
Mark Harper transport secretary has just said Tories will stop the "misuse of 15 minute cities" … "what is sinister is the idea of local councils deciding how often you can go to the shops". It is sinister. It’s also not remotely true… https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1708792200329372089
If you know anything about Mike Jeffries, its a bit like finding out Russell Brand didn't exactly live a pure life in the noughties. There have been previous lawsuits about his and his partners behaviour.
I am presuming the delay in announcing was down to legal fights.
Just a quick note to Mike and others, to record my appreciation of this website. My partner always tells me I am wasting my time posting on it but it has actually improved my written communication skills quite dramatically, over the past couple of years. All the best to Mike for the break.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Best wishes and many thanks to you, Mike. Over the years - and especially from around 2008 to 2019 - I reckon I learned more from PB than any other single site on the Information Super Highway. There were so many insightful posters, representing all strands of opinion, with so much knowledge. It was essential reading. That’s one hell of an achievement. I salute you.
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
The Tories seem to have gone full on loon. Is there another Western European government going to the extremes so quickly? It would be amusing, but it’s our country they’re in charge of. What madness are they going to embrace next? These are dangerous times.
Today I employed a gardener for the first time as 'tempus fugit'
I still cut the grass and potter but time to recognise my limitations
Also today my granddaughter flew to Turin for a year at Turin University from Leeds University to continue her Italian studies after her posting to a Milan Law firm as a translator fell through
She informed me yesterday she hopes to join the Foreign Office as a diplomat, so quite an ambition
When does legitimate protest become a prolonged campaign of harassment / stalking? The anti-lockdown / anti-vax loons got banged up for hassling politicians for a few weeks.
The Tories seem to have gone full on loon. Is there another Western European government going to the extremes so quickly? It would be amusing, but it’s our country they’re in charge of. What madness are they going to embrace next? These are dangerous times.
Must be harder elsewhere, because single-party government is less common.
So the coalition partners can always stage An Intervention, or threaten one before things get out of hand.
The Tories seem to have gone full on loon. Is there another Western European government going to the extremes so quickly? It would be amusing, but it’s our country they’re in charge of. What madness are they going to embrace next? These are dangerous times.
Meloni's Italy for starters is more extreme than this one, they are even banning parents by surrogate.
On topic - all the best Mike, hope to see you back here soon. Nothing interesting ever happens when TSE has the helm, so a boring period of political snoozing awaits.
Didn't Sunak stand up at the hustings last year and say something along the lines of he'll divert money heading to poor northern areas to more prosperous Southern ones?
If so, Labour could do with getting hold of that video and playing on repeat for the next 12 months
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
Good for him. It is an utterly appalling decision.
The decision has been taken years ago to build this. Get the feck on and finish the job.
Aubrey Allegretti @breeallegretti · 35m Surprise press conferences is not the sign of a party in charge of the conference news agenda.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, also holding one shortly
Aubrey Allegretti @breeallegretti · 6m “You will be turning your back on the opportunity to level up”
Andy Street makes an impassioned plea to save the future of HS2
Wouldn’t be surprised if he does resign. What a disaster
Er, why would Mr Street resign? He's getting HS2, albeit with a scenic tour of Wormwood Sctrubs etc thrown in.
I'm sure the government won't be happy if he resigns, but 10 years with no time off for good behaviour seems a bit harsh.
West Midlands people- how attached is Street to the party? A high profile resignation overshadowing Rishi's speech would definitely be top banter.
It was a reference to the most distinctive local landmark for those of us who don't know Old Oak Common at all! But yes, I should have said 'the outside of the Scrubs'.
The captain of the ship gets a call on the bridge that's he's needed in the engine room. He's greeted by water spraying everywhere. Hans, one of the stokers, has a pick-axe in his hands and every ten seconds he swings it at the hull, piercing it. Another jet of fine seawater mist erupts.
"Hans!" the captain shouts. "What the fuck are you doing?! You'll sink us! Stop making holes in the hull!"
"Actually captain," Hans replies "until recently I was making holes every five seconds. So you see," and here he sweeps his arm around at the holes and the spray and the ankle-deep brine, "the situation is already improving."
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
But that usually means people are fixing at a much higher rate anyway. So nothing to be felt there
The captain of the ship gets a call on the bridge that's he's needed in the engine room. He's greeted by water spraying everywhere. Hans, one of the stokers, has a pick-axe in his hands and every ten seconds he swings it at the hull, piercing it. Another jet of fine seawater mist erupts.
"Hans!" the captain shouts. "What the fuck are you doing?! You'll sink us! Stop making holes in the hull!"
"Actually captain," Hans replies "until recently I was making holes every five seconds. So you see," and here he sweeps his arm around at the holes and the spray and the ankle-deep brine, "the situation is already improving."
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
" ... your mortgage will be going UP when you RENEW it later this year ..."
The Tories seem to have gone full on loon. Is there another Western European government going to the extremes so quickly? It would be amusing, but it’s our country they’re in charge of. What madness are they going to embrace next? These are dangerous times.
Meloni's Italy for starters is more extreme than this one, they are even banning parents by surrogate.
Sweden has the Sweden Democrats in government
I would just comment that the news from Slovakia of the election of a pro Putin president welcomed by Putin, alongside Hungary's Orban, who is also pro Putin, and with Poland facing an election later this month it is worrying times for Ukraine, especially as the US is also prevaricating
So the Tory conference is a mismanaged disaster with a half-empty hall as mad ministers decry your local shops as a woke illuminati plot, as the Chancellor seriously says he will sanction scroungers (people who can't get a job) to pay for tax cuts to billionaires, and nobody in the government can toe the line on what is happening to HS2 because the line is so spectacularly crazy that even the Lizaster Group aren't backing it.
Top job Richy! I hope for letters falling off the set behind him, or perhaps the podium has a rotating sign with contradicting policies so that he can react to the wind blowing with another uturn.
@montie I walked into Conference earlier with @Nigel_Farage . He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Mike, you're leaving the site to a man who wears trousers like that?!
Best of luck with your time off, and many thanks for all your work over the last 20 years. I have had a huge amount of enjoyment out of this site over the years.
And TSE, many thanks too for taking over the reins.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
" ... your mortgage will be going UP when you RENEW it later this year ..."
My current deal runs out in March so I will have to get new one, luckily it is my 1/4 villa so not a big one.
The Tories seem to have gone full on loon. Is there another Western European government going to the extremes so quickly? It would be amusing, but it’s our country they’re in charge of. What madness are they going to embrace next? These are dangerous times.
Meloni's Italy for starters is more extreme than this one, they are even banning parents by surrogate.
Sweden has the Sweden Democrats in government
I would just comment that the news from Slovakia of the election of a pro Putin president welcomed by Putin, alongside Hungary's Orban, who is also pro Putin, and with Poland facing an election later this month it is worrying times for Ukraine, especially as the US is also prevaricating
Indeed, though Poland is more an issue about grain and most western nations are still behind Zelensky
@montie I walked into Conference earlier with @Nigel_Farage . He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Given that the Conservative & Unionist Party was subject to a reverse takeover by UKIP, that’s hardly surprising.
'Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, announced that she was axing an EU rule banning bendy bananas.
In her speech she declared:
"My officials are cutting red tape and introducing smarter regulation.
Frankly, bent or straight, it is not for government to decide the shape of bananas you want to eat – I just want to assure you they are safe to eat.
So we will be dropping absurd regulations, including the one on bendy bananas.
Contrast all this to Labour.
They are sneakily signing up to keeping in step with whatever Europe decides."'
Just like banning meat tax, then.
So her big policy announcement is to abolish something that doesn't exist. Well after Sunak's big pledge to scrap the meat tax, at least the continuation of fantasy island is consistent.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
" ... your mortgage will be going UP when you RENEW it later this year ..."
And would be going up even more if big spending and large tax cuts expanded the deficit and inflation further
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
Good for him. It is an utterly appalling decision.
The decision has been taken years ago to build this. Get the feck on and finish the job.
There are arguments either way, I expect most people in the north would not complain if more funds saved from cancellation were put into local bus stations and rail routes and mending potholes
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
Good for him. It is an utterly appalling decision.
The decision has been taken years ago to build this. Get the feck on and finish the job.
There are arguments either way, I expect most people in the north would not complain if more funds saved from cancellation were put into local bus stations and rail routes and mending potholes
You have seen the historical records for transport investment in the North of England vs. London?
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
This pathetic nonsense is no way to run a country.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
It is chaos. Just utter indecisive chaos.
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
The country would be better with Truss.
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
Inflation is falling, the economy is growing, Sunak is delivering in some respects
"Your prices are still going up, and your mortgage will be going up when you renew it layter this year. Only your prices aren't going up qutie as fast as we made them do last year."
Interest rates and hence mortgage rates too are stabilising
" ... your mortgage will be going UP when you RENEW it later this year ..."
And would be going up even more if big spending and large tax cuts expanded the deficit and inflation further
Remind me again: which Prime Minister was the last one to promise huge tax cuts without cutting spending?
@montie I walked into Conference earlier with @Nigel_Farage . He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Think it's quite possible he will try to become a Tory MP soon.
@montie I walked into Conference earlier with @Nigel_Farage . He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Think it's quite possible he will try to become a Tory MP soon.
Comments
Very best wishes Mike.
In the event of TSE running the show, should we be looking to bet on the inevitable Armageddon?
We love you, Mike.
Meanwhile in "boring polls" news,
Labour leads by 14% nationally.
Westminster VI (1 October):
Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 24 September
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1708874488996409475
FPT:
I like this way of presenting polls. Much easier to read into long term trends than either the individual polling results or, arguably, the line graphs.
https://x.com/benatipsos/status/1708864817782567396?s=20
Incredible medium term stability, after averaging out short term volatility. The only notable change is a 1-2% swing from Lab to LD in April, which seems to have stuck. At a guess I would say that campaigning ahead of the May locals focused voters' minds on tactical options.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
Is the Treasury (or someone else) trying to bounce the PM prior to an actual decision?
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
When the election campaign comes, parties need to close down damaging stories hard and fast. This one has been rolling on for days, and the line seems to be "Rishi is having a good old think about it and we'll let you know the outcome at some point." Plainly that is not an acceptable answer.
Abercrombie & Fitch ex-CEO accused of exploiting men for sex
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-66889779
Listen to the podcast series, World of Secrets: Season 1 - The Abercrombie Guys, available on BBC Sounds from 21:00 BST. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvs0
Apparently, rich men are travelling the world and paying out of their own pocket for consensual sex with adult men for money. Leaving aside the ethics of prostitution, am I missing something?
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
·
35m
Surprise press conferences is not the sign of a party in charge of the conference news agenda.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, also holding one shortly
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
·
6m
“You will be turning your back on the opportunity to level up”
Andy Street makes an impassioned plea to save the future of HS2
And travelling the world to pay yourself is one thing. Sex trafficking and moving people to be exploited is another kettle of fish.
Following on from the definition of 'woke' discussion, can I suggest that it eludes definition in the normal sense of the term because it belongs to a special class of words which have three characteristics:
Their meaning evolves continuously
They denote a clan and clan membership
It is a sanctified (for some) or tainting (for others) word, meaning that its use always implies being axiomatically right or axiomatically wrong, with no further consideration required.
Discussion across boundaries is frequently discouraged and is generally fruitless.
Other words with similar overtones: left, right, progressive, centrist, conservative.
"what is sinister is the idea of local councils deciding how often you can go to the shops".
It is sinister. It’s also not remotely true…
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1708792200329372089
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
I cannot think of one outstanding politician anywhere
If I knew what a starmer was, I'd be pretty sure the same applied to it.
Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 24 September"
OGH is taking a step back from PB because he's been called upon to run the country.
(If only that were true...)
I am presuming the delay in announcing was down to legal fights.
If you’re going to vacillate wildly from one position to another, why not do it good and hard!
Taking credit for that is like taking credit for ending global warming in February as its colder than it was in August.
Or, is only going to London all that people give a damn about?
Feck the Treasury. Sorry for my language, but I'm fed up with this London-centric BS.
West Midlands people- how attached is Street to the party? A high profile resignation overshadowing Rishi's speech would definitely be top banter.
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
I still cut the grass and potter but time to recognise my limitations
Also today my granddaughter flew to Turin for a year at Turin University from Leeds University to continue her Italian studies after her posting to a Milan Law firm as a translator fell through
She informed me yesterday she hopes to join the Foreign Office as a diplomat, so quite an ambition
https://order-order.com/2023/10/02/watch-steve-bray-ejected-from-fringe-event/
So the coalition partners can always stage An Intervention, or threaten one before things get out of hand.
Sweden has the Sweden Democrats in government
If so, Labour could do with getting hold of that video and playing on repeat for the next 12 months
The decision has been taken years ago to build this. Get the feck on and finish the job.
Blackpool South MP Scott Benton is being investigated by the Commons sleaze watchdog after he was filmed offering to lobby ministers and leak confidential information
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-face-another-nightmare-election-31082177
He took over at the peak, that was known before he took over and forecast by the BoE to be the peak. And was the peak globally.
After that effects from post-Covid and the build-up to the war in Ukraine started falling out of the inflation figures.
If you take over in August, then its colder in November, does that mean you solved global warming?
'Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, announced that she was axing an EU rule banning bendy bananas.
In her speech she declared:
"My officials are cutting red tape and introducing smarter regulation.
Frankly, bent or straight, it is not for government to decide the shape of bananas you want to eat – I just want to assure you they are safe to eat.
So we will be dropping absurd regulations, including the one on bendy bananas.
Contrast all this to Labour.
They are sneakily signing up to keeping in step with whatever Europe decides."'
Just like banning meat tax, then.
We can't let Labour sign us up to the emulsified high fat offal tube.
Top job Richy! I hope for letters falling off the set behind him, or perhaps the podium has a rotating sign with contradicting policies so that he can react to the wind blowing with another uturn.
I walked into Conference earlier with
@Nigel_Farage
. He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Best of luck with your time off, and many thanks for all your work over the last 20 years. I have had a huge amount of enjoyment out of this site over the years.
And TSE, many thanks too for taking over the reins.
(I got the reference )