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A note from Mike Smithson – politicalbetting.com
A note from Mike Smithson – politicalbetting.com
After nearly 20 years of running PB I am taking a break from the site.
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After nearly 20 years of running PB I am taking a break from the site.
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Very best wishes Mike.
In the event of TSE running the show, should we be looking to bet on the inevitable Armageddon?
We love you, Mike.
Meanwhile in "boring polls" news,
Labour leads by 14% nationally.
Westminster VI (1 October):
Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 24 September
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1708874488996409475
FPT:
I like this way of presenting polls. Much easier to read into long term trends than either the individual polling results or, arguably, the line graphs.
https://x.com/benatipsos/status/1708864817782567396?s=20
Incredible medium term stability, after averaging out short term volatility. The only notable change is a 1-2% swing from Lab to LD in April, which seems to have stuck. At a guess I would say that campaigning ahead of the May locals focused voters' minds on tactical options.
More HS2 confusion as Downing Street is forced to deny that Rishi Sunak has decided to axe the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the project.
If you say you're going to do something, then bloody well do it. Stop dilly dallying about for decades.
And if you've made a decision, spit it out.
Is the Treasury (or someone else) trying to bounce the PM prior to an actual decision?
Sunak's USP was stable and adult governance after a period of chaos.
Now this.
Just beggars belief frankly.
When the election campaign comes, parties need to close down damaging stories hard and fast. This one has been rolling on for days, and the line seems to be "Rishi is having a good old think about it and we'll let you know the outcome at some point." Plainly that is not an acceptable answer.
Abercrombie & Fitch ex-CEO accused of exploiting men for sex
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-66889779
Listen to the podcast series, World of Secrets: Season 1 - The Abercrombie Guys, available on BBC Sounds from 21:00 BST. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvs0
Apparently, rich men are travelling the world and paying out of their own pocket for consensual sex with adult men for money. Leaving aside the ethics of prostitution, am I missing something?
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
·
35m
Surprise press conferences is not the sign of a party in charge of the conference news agenda.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, also holding one shortly
Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
·
6m
“You will be turning your back on the opportunity to level up”
Andy Street makes an impassioned plea to save the future of HS2
And travelling the world to pay yourself is one thing. Sex trafficking and moving people to be exploited is another kettle of fish.
Following on from the definition of 'woke' discussion, can I suggest that it eludes definition in the normal sense of the term because it belongs to a special class of words which have three characteristics:
Their meaning evolves continuously
They denote a clan and clan membership
It is a sanctified (for some) or tainting (for others) word, meaning that its use always implies being axiomatically right or axiomatically wrong, with no further consideration required.
Discussion across boundaries is frequently discouraged and is generally fruitless.
Other words with similar overtones: left, right, progressive, centrist, conservative.
"what is sinister is the idea of local councils deciding how often you can go to the shops".
It is sinister. It’s also not remotely true…
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1708792200329372089
Or Johnson.
Or Starmer.
I cannot think of one outstanding politician anywhere
If I knew what a starmer was, I'd be pretty sure the same applied to it.
Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 24 September"
I know Sunak's spent a year being a dud and has now... ahem, gone off the rails... but he took longer to get to this point than Truss or Johnson did.
I would keep Sunak in place rather than hand the keys back to Cabbage Patch Kid or Chunk.
OGH is taking a step back from PB because he's been called upon to run the country.
(If only that were true...)
I am presuming the delay in announcing was down to legal fights.
If you’re going to vacillate wildly from one position to another, why not do it good and hard!
Taking credit for that is like taking credit for ending global warming in February as its colder than it was in August.
Or, is only going to London all that people give a damn about?
Feck the Treasury. Sorry for my language, but I'm fed up with this London-centric BS.
West Midlands people- how attached is Street to the party? A high profile resignation overshadowing Rishi's speech would definitely be top banter.
"💥West Mids mayor @andy4wm impromptu doorstep where he publicly pleads with the PM not to scrap HS2 & says he’s putting together private sec backer to keep project on track.
Asked repeatedly if he’d resign if scrapped and he refuses to rule it out"
"Hans!" the captain shouts. "What the fuck are you doing?! You'll sink us! Stop making holes in the hull!"
"Actually captain," Hans replies "until recently I was making holes every five seconds. So you see," and here he sweeps his arm around at the holes and the spray and the ankle-deep brine, "the situation is already improving."
I still cut the grass and potter but time to recognise my limitations
Also today my granddaughter flew to Turin for a year at Turin University from Leeds University to continue her Italian studies after her posting to a Milan Law firm as a translator fell through
She informed me yesterday she hopes to join the Foreign Office as a diplomat, so quite an ambition
https://order-order.com/2023/10/02/watch-steve-bray-ejected-from-fringe-event/
So the coalition partners can always stage An Intervention, or threaten one before things get out of hand.
Sweden has the Sweden Democrats in government
If so, Labour could do with getting hold of that video and playing on repeat for the next 12 months
The decision has been taken years ago to build this. Get the feck on and finish the job.
Blackpool South MP Scott Benton is being investigated by the Commons sleaze watchdog after he was filmed offering to lobby ministers and leak confidential information
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-face-another-nightmare-election-31082177
He took over at the peak, that was known before he took over and forecast by the BoE to be the peak. And was the peak globally.
After that effects from post-Covid and the build-up to the war in Ukraine started falling out of the inflation figures.
If you take over in August, then its colder in November, does that mean you solved global warming?
'Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, announced that she was axing an EU rule banning bendy bananas.
In her speech she declared:
"My officials are cutting red tape and introducing smarter regulation.
Frankly, bent or straight, it is not for government to decide the shape of bananas you want to eat – I just want to assure you they are safe to eat.
So we will be dropping absurd regulations, including the one on bendy bananas.
Contrast all this to Labour.
They are sneakily signing up to keeping in step with whatever Europe decides."'
Just like banning meat tax, then.
We can't let Labour sign us up to the emulsified high fat offal tube.
Top job Richy! I hope for letters falling off the set behind him, or perhaps the podium has a rotating sign with contradicting policies so that he can react to the wind blowing with another uturn.
I walked into Conference earlier with
@Nigel_Farage
. He got quite the reception. I'm convinced party members would choose him as leader if they could.
Best of luck with your time off, and many thanks for all your work over the last 20 years. I have had a huge amount of enjoyment out of this site over the years.
And TSE, many thanks too for taking over the reins.
(I got the reference