politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester
Comments
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You don't understand much about UK politics do you Poppett?Poppett said:TGHOF The point is Cameron couldn't even beat a hated brown .and ask a few tories if they think licking cleggs **** is a victory forget it
1979 Minority Labour government lost to Margaret Thatcher who gained a majority of just over 40.
1997 Minority Tory government lost to Tony Blair who gained a majority of over 140.
2010 MAJORITY Labour government lost to David Cameron who just failed to get a majority. Had he faced a minority government as per the 2 previous times there was a change of party in government he would have won a majority.
In 2010 Labour suffered its second highest loss of seat numbers at a single election. If you are a Labour supporter you should be wishing Ed Bland achieves as much success next May as Michael Foot did in 1983. Right now it doesn't look as though he will.
Scottish Labour which accounts for almost 17% of Labour MPs is in meltdown. The London chatterati has Jim Murphy already prepared for his coronation but SLAB is a left wing beast dominated by trade unions who are already falling over themselves to support Neil Findlay.0 -
Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
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How pleasant. Look, I still think Labour will win in 2015 - the only thing lately, despite UKIP's successes, that has made me think that could change, is if the SNP increase can be sustained - and I think the 'weird Ed' attacks rise to the level of bloody ridiculous, with stuff on bacon sandwiches and 2p and all the rest. Granted the left have had some fun with Cameron 'shopping' and so on, but not to the same extent or with the same maliciousness. But that doesn't make moaning about people acting like sheep and throwing around insults with no indication of self awareness about your own insults being in the same vein, any less irritating. If you're going to insult people in such a blunt manner, you cannot complain when they do the same, and vice-versa; either way, no-one's on the highground, which is fine so long as no-one acts like they are on it (I do act like I am because smugness makes me feel good). Some of the more interesting stuff can be a good insult, just like swearing can be done in a really good way, but just throwing it around indiscriminately is not as effective.Poppett said:You morons do what you do on twitter you say TROLL wow just because someone doesn't agree the person is a troll . You are a sad lot but more than that boring !!
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Is someone taking my name in vain?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Meanwhile, this appears to be what the Tory high command spends political donations on:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817318/Heard-one-Tory-Summit-beat-UKIP-MPs-boozed-3am-told-filthy-jokes-enraged-Osborne-picture.html
A rotten rotten establishment.0 -
You're welcome!audreyanne said:
Good analogy! I'm going to borrow that if I may.Gadfly said:
I gave this some thought yesterday and have concluded that I agree with you that we are still mid-term. I can see an analogy with pregnancy and childbirth ;-)audreyanne said:
And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election,Financier said:PBers a bit obsessive?
He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html
Once we are into January, December becomes 'last year', and Rochester will seem like many moons ago.0 -
I see the authority for that is Kenneth O Morgan, my political history tutor (a very long time ago). If "authority" is the word I want...rottenborough said:
The donkey jacket is a political myth. See, as one example:Innocent_Abroad said:
Beginning to think? We had that discussion weeks ago!audreyanne said:
Haha good onedr_spyn said:If Edward gives 2 pence to a beggar, how many donations does it take to collect enough to buy Harriet's £45 Right on Statement T shirt?
How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?
!
This is yet another dreadful moment for Miliband. All politicians have their moments with silly stunts (baseball caps and hugging hoodies) but Ed Miliband seems to make cock-up after cock-up on a weekly basis.
I'm beginning to think he is a worse Labour leader than Michael Foot. Cameron won't have a Falklands to crush Miliband but I still can't see Labour winning with him.
Foot had principles, no Tory has ever denied him that. And a donkey jacket, too, for this time of year. (In his time it was quite cool in November, of course, rather than California-on-Thames...)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7361078/Michael-Foot-and-the-donkey-jacket-that-wasnt.html
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+1.MarqueeMark said:
You would have thought that it might just cross their Leftish-minds to check that these garments weren't fitted with an arse-biting device.....another_richard said:It would never have occurred to Harman etc to wear Tshirts made in a British factory which paid the 'living wage'.
Doesn't the Labour party condemn organisations which exploit the poor ?
I wonder what the profit margin is on a Tshirt sold at £45 which is made at £0.62ph.
Looking at Harman and Miliband posing away, it did strike me that there are two tees in twats...and two twats in tees....
I wondered what the donation to the FS cause was from each sale. Perhaps they might care to enlighten us all.0 -
Ed "Man of the People" Miliband
@hugorifkind: This Is What A Man Who In All Honesty Doesn't Actually Have A Clue How Much The Person Who Made His T-Shirt Was Paid Looks Like.0 -
FluffyThoughts said:
Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
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But those who said they voted UKIP in 2010 might have in fact voted for Reckless in 2010, and just forgotten which party he stood for.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
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Most of you are men . boring men . you cant take losing ,or being wrong . Just like Mike , he blocks women that tell him he's wrong , Or at the very least after - timing . or as imo he is a poor gambler . Me and my bets £1000 -6/5 No overall .100 Boris to be next Tory leader at 8-1 three years ago PP . 50 Labour min Govt 8-1 50 labour/SNP 25-1 .100 SNP 21-26 seats . 100 Nigel to win any seat 2-1 200 Boris ( thanks to Emily ) 7/4 to stand at next election ,. You are right Eaterross I know nothing yours @SlutFromMars-1
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Just the latest attempt from the media to smear UKIP as misogynist/racist. The Tories are a joke. They use the same shameful techniques they used to protest. Its pretty clear these days they are just another faux outrage, PC, anti-free speech party. The more they ape the left to insult UKIP the more reluctant I am to ever go back to them.Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:
Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.0 -
Mike's a naughty boy.No_Offence_Alan said:
But those who said they voted UKIP in 2010 might have in fact voted for Reckless in 2010, and just forgotten which party he stood for.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
Like me, he expected the Tories to put up a better fight in Rochester and backed them with the intention of laying off as the price shortened. It hasn't happened, and like me he is left with an ugly red blotch on his Betfair account.
If he can talk the price up a bit, he and I might pull some of our chestnuts out of the fire, but somehow I doubt it. The punters are looking at those polls and drawing the obvious conclusion.
Nice try Mike but for all the talk, Tory-buyers are thin on the ground, and I suspect it will stay that way until the election.0 -
@BBCNormanS: Alex Salmond is "yesterday's man ... The sun is setting on his career" - @jimmurphymp #ouch #marrshow0
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If only The Guardian, not The Mail, had covered that T shirt Milibandwagon story. The Fawcett Society PR response could be churlish, on verge of hoping for an apology or donation later.
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/latest/press-releases/feminist-looks-like-t-shirt-fawcett-society-response/0 -
Despite all the excitement and interest on here (how many thousands of people must never think about politics to make up for this site ) the fact is that turnout in the by election will almost certainly be lower than it was in the GE. So maybe 80% of those who voted the last time will vote this time and less than 20% of those who didn't.
So Ukips lead is not as strong as it looks and Mike is right. Still favourites but overpriced. Look at the number on here that predicted a UKIP win in the PCC competition and see how the market is being distorted.0 -
He
Charles Elphicke is a tool. He wants to make it illegal to use pseudonyms on the Internet.Socrates said:Just the latest attempt from the media to smear UKIP as misogynist/racist. The Tories are a joke. They use the same shameful techniques they used to protest. Its pretty clear these days they are just another faux outrage, PC, anti-free speech party. The more they ape the left to insult UKIP the more reluctant I am to ever go back to them.
Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.0 -
Will they be handing back the difference in profits now they have discovered it wasn't made in the UK ?dr_spyn said:If only The Guardian, not The Mail, had covered that T shirt Milibandwagon story. The Fawcett Society PR response could be churlish, on verge of hoping for an apology or donation later.
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/latest/press-releases/feminist-looks-like-t-shirt-fawcett-society-response/
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But he backed them AGAIN yesterday and I remember him talking up LABOUR againPeter_the_Punter said:
Mike's a naughty boy.No_Offence_Alan said:
But those who said they voted UKIP in 2010 might have in fact voted for Reckless in 2010, and just forgotten which party he stood for.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
Like me, he expected the Tories to put up a better fight in Rochester and backed them with the intention of laying off as the price shortened. It hasn't happened, and like me he is left with an ugly red blotch on his Betfair account.
If he can talk the price up a bit, he and I might pull some of our chestnuts out of the fire, but somehow I doubt it. The punters are looking at those polls and drawing the obvious conclusion.
Nice try Mike but for all the talk, Tory-buyers are thin on the ground, and I suspect it will stay that way until the election.0 -
Is a Trot trolling?0
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@BBCNormanS: Seems @jimmurphymp has decided to take gloves off in dealings with @Snp given #marrshow performance
@politicshome: Murphy accuses SNP of doing 'lap of honour' despite losing independence referendum #Marr
@BBCNormanS: Nicola Sturgeon shd be worried @AlexSalmond wd be a " backseat driver" if returned to Westminster #marrshow0 -
I would think political donations and what they are used for is between parties and their donors, if the donors are happy for it to be used on "refreshment" then thats their business, if they are not they can take their money elsewhere, nothing rotten about it really imo.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Meanwhile, this appears to be what the Tory high command spends political donations on:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817318/Heard-one-Tory-Summit-beat-UKIP-MPs-boozed-3am-told-filthy-jokes-enraged-Osborne-picture.html
A rotten rotten establishment.
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Funny that; my impression’s very dissimilar! For example, the attitude of the BBC to the LD’s is very much that of right-wing Tories!weejonnie said:
Most days on the BBC (or at least -ve coalition/UKIP reports/ comedy). It is not obvious but the BBC tend to mimic Labour press releases and political stances on various topics.OldKingCole said:
Apart from winning the PCC by-election (and that was muted), when did Labour have any good Press coverage in the last few weeks? As opposed to bad?chestnut said:Implied national Vote from 2010:Now VI in Sample:
CON 30.29%
LAB 30.16%
Fourth time in ten that a minimal Tory lead has been implied. Labour are down 4-5 points in the last six weeks.0 -
Labour have an ever-shrinking lead, if they still have one at all. Most models are now predicting (as I predicted 3 years ago) a Tory vote "win" in May 2015. Cameron's PM approval ratings are up there with the best of them, while Miliband's are vying with Foot's for worst Opposition leader since records began.Poppett said:Fat Steve you are being taken in by it being a beauty contest !! Its NOT we are NOT America yet , Labour are in the lead Miliband or NOT . If you think dear Cameron can win get down to the bookies cos it wont happen with or without Miliband
How this translates into seats is still a bit clouded, but the augurs are in the Tories' favour, I suggest...0 -
I'm sorry OGH, your thread is ludicrous and instantly understood to be ludicrous.
In the Clacton by election opinion polls 73% 2010 OTHER's voted UKIP, even if they didn't have a candidate in 2010, exactly like Rochester:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
If your analysis is correct UKIP should have lost Clacton.
My advice to you is stop digging a bigger hole in your bank account.0 -
The don't knows - the biggest uncertainty. 10% tories (3.7%), 11% Labour (3%) and 20% Lib Dems (4.6%) don't know for whom to vote. In a tight election these are significant values.
What should also worry Labour is that they seem to be losing the young vote - Tories outpoll them and Greens are very popular. (Labour also doing badly in Midlands/ Wales) and Scotland (Tories 5 points behind). Although with the usual caveat about small sub-sample size.
Maybe Labour regret introducing global warming and alternative energy into the school curriculum . . .0 -
I am frequently very wrong, and you'd be surprised how easy it is to get over being wrong so long as you don't act like a prat with your predictions beforehand, or as in my incredibly wrong prediction for the IndyRef, you don't mind being wrong. Given your aggressive responses to criticism, mild or otherwise, I do find it a bit strange you feel able to criticise people reacting against the possibility of losing or being wrong, if only because if you are wrong the aggression looks frankly bizarre. Kippers, Tories, Nats or Labour, we've seen plenty of 'You guys are sheep, wait till you see the real voice of the people you effing morons for believing my team/predictions won't win!' sorts of comments to be amused by the fiery passion and lack of self awareness. The test of character comes from those able to say they called it wrong and show their faces still.Poppett said:Most of you are men . boring men . you cant take losing ,or being wrong .
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David Little is 4/1 to win Dover.Socrates said:Just the latest attempt from the media to smear UKIP as misogynist/racist. The Tories are a joke. They use the same shameful techniques they used to protest. Its pretty clear these days they are just another faux outrage, PC, anti-free speech party. The more they ape the left to insult UKIP the more reluctant I am to ever go back to them.
Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
I've had a pony on that. If nothing else he has a decent sense of humour and an appealing manner.
One of UKIP's attractions is that its Leader 'talks human' in a way that other leaders do not. It seems Little is cast in that mould. But if you want a more technical reason for backing him, check out his Party's Euro performance in Dover and Deal.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/european-election-results-17705/0 -
How very true that is. I never thought of it like that before.Gadfly said:audreyanne said:
Good analogy! I'm going to borrow that if I may.Gadfly said:
I gave this some thought yesterday and have concluded that I agree with you that we are still mid-term. I can see an analogy with pregnancy and childbirth ;-)audreyanne said:
And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election,Financier said:PBers a bit obsessive?
He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html
Once we are into January, December becomes 'last year.
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It's a generally grumpy sample. Cameron's rating drops faster than Miliband's, confidence in the government on the economy is well down, people believe the Commission more than Cameron on the budget demand, and if the EU gives any trouble on anything we want out.Millsy said:Today's YouGov poll has Miliband with his worst ever "doing well" scores and a plurality in all voting groups wanting to opt back in to the European Arrest Warrant.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf
On topic, clearly UKIP is interesting a lot of people who've been switched off politics, and that's a good thing - I'd think most will in fact vote in a hotly contested by-election.0 -
:auntie-hortence-will-block-any-sensible-response:Poppett said:Most of you are men . boring men . you cant take losing ,or being wrong . Just like Mike , he blocks women that tell him he's wrong , Or at the very least after - timing . or as imo he is a poor gambler . Me and my bets £1000 -6/5 No overall .100 Boris to be next Tory leader at 8-1 three years ago PP . 50 Labour min Govt 8-1 50 labour/SNP 25-1 .100 SNP 21-26 seats . 100 Nigel to win any seat 2-1 200 Boris ( thanks to Emily ) 7/4 to stand at next election ,. You are right Eaterross I know nothing yours @SlutFromMars
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Morning all
There's some interesting data in the above table - UKIP not as strong among the 18-24 age group but ahead among the 65+ age group which are (as is often said on here) the ones who vote and the ones who count. Also interesting that Tolhurst's support is also entirely from the 2010 CON group with almost no "new" support.
The photo shows "100 members of Team 2015" - I'd be fascinated to know how many Tory activists were in Rochester yesterday - we had tales of 600 going to Newark. It would also be interesting to know how many UKIP had on the ground as well.
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.0 -
@NickPalmer
50% of the UK public believe Fallon was right about towns being swamped by immigration, and agreed with the adjective.
28% believe he was right, but should have used different language.
13% thought it was untrue.
Those are killer numbers for your party's "do nothing about immigration" policy.0 -
I have the suspicion that UKIP might win Dover, for no other reason that it's the first place illegal immigrants land from Calais .Peter_the_Punter said:
David Little is 4/1 to win Dover.Socrates said:Just the latest attempt from the media to smear UKIP as misogynist/racist. The Tories are a joke. They use the same shameful techniques they used to protest. Its pretty clear these days they are just another faux outrage, PC, anti-free speech party. The more they ape the left to insult UKIP the more reluctant I am to ever go back to them.
Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
I've had a pony on that. If nothing else he has a decent sense of humour and an appealing manner.
One of UKIP's attractions is that its Leader 'talks human' in a way that other leaders do not. It seems Little is cast in that mould. But if you want a more technical reason for backing him, check out his Party's Euro performance in Dover and Deal.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/european-election-results-17705/0 -
79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
I think Mr P’s right with his last paragraph. I don’t particular like the sort of saloon-bar smart-arse, which is Farage’s image, myself, but there’s no doubt many find that sort of thing amusing, at least in the short-term.Peter_the_Punter said:
David Little is 4/1 to win Dover.Socrates said:Just the latest attempt from the media to smear UKIP as misogynist/racist. The Tories are a joke. They use the same shameful techniques they used to protest. Its pretty clear these days they are just another faux outrage, PC, anti-free speech party. The more they ape the left to insult UKIP the more reluctant I am to ever go back to them.
Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
I've had a pony on that. If nothing else he has a decent sense of humour and an appealing manner.
One of UKIP's attractions is that its Leader 'talks human' in a way that other leaders do not. It seems Little is cast in that mould. But if you want a more technical reason for backing him, check out his Party's Euro performance in Dover and Deal.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/european-election-results-17705/
Seen as “normal” was Charles Kennedy’s strength, of course, until the saloon bar took over!.0 -
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
There's some interesting data in the above table - UKIP not as strong among the 18-24 age group but ahead among the 65+ age group which are (as is often said on here) the ones who vote and the ones who count. Also interesting that Tolhurst's support is also entirely from the 2010 CON group with almost no "new" support.
The photo shows "100 members of Team 2015" - I'd be fascinated to know how many Tory activists were in Rochester yesterday - we had tales of 600 going to Newark. It would also be interesting to know how many UKIP had on the ground as well.
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.0 -
Stodge:stodge said:Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
Your exemplify that I was correct to refuse Dulwich and St Dunstans. Forest Hill Boys gave me an education and a rounded knowledge of society (something you appear to lack).
You are a waste of resources: Are you related to SoWo...?
:tumbleweed:
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Didn't Private Eye do a similar "Prince Philip's view of the world" map many moons ago?Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
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No, you are missing the point.Poppett said:People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !
People take the piss out of weird Ed because he is weird, he has become a figure of fun. People openly laugh at him.
This feeling is not just here or "rightwing media" but also openly lefty comics, it has become mainstream.
The average voter doesn't understand detailed policy and votes according to their perception.
And mainstream perception is increasingly that weird Ed is weird.
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Fluffy I will vote Green at the next electionFluffyThoughts said:
Stodge:stodge said:Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
Your exemplify that I was correct to refuse Dulwich and St Dunstans. Forest Hill Boys gave me an education and a rounded knowledge of society (something you appear to lack).
You are a waste of resources: Are you related to SoWo...?
:tumbleweed:0 -
Even among 18-34 year olds, UKIP are ahead.stodge said:Morning all
There's some interesting data in the above table - UKIP not as strong among the 18-24 age group but ahead among the 65+ age group which are (as is often said on here) the ones who vote and the ones who count. Also interesting that Tolhurst's support is also entirely from the 2010 CON group with almost no "new" support.
The photo shows "100 members of Team 2015" - I'd be fascinated to know how many Tory activists were in Rochester yesterday - we had tales of 600 going to Newark. It would also be interesting to know how many UKIP had on the ground as well.
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
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Mike makes a lot of money from betting on Politics and it's sensible to note what he says, carefully.Poppett said:
But he backed them AGAIN yesterday and I remember him talking up LABOUR againPeter_the_Punter said:
Mike's a naughty boy.No_Offence_Alan said:
But those who said they voted UKIP in 2010 might have in fact voted for Reckless in 2010, and just forgotten which party he stood for.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
Like me, he expected the Tories to put up a better fight in Rochester and backed them with the intention of laying off as the price shortened. It hasn't happened, and like me he is left with an ugly red blotch on his Betfair account.
If he can talk the price up a bit, he and I might pull some of our chestnuts out of the fire, but somehow I doubt it. The punters are looking at those polls and drawing the obvious conclusion.
Nice try Mike but for all the talk, Tory-buyers are thin on the ground, and I suspect it will stay that way until the election.
Rochester has been a funny betting market. When Hills opened up with 1/2 UKIP I thought it was a clear case of mispricing and shot up to my local bookie with a hundred quid in my sweaty paw. Like many others, I was amazed to see the price then drift, but I stuck to my guns and went in again at evens and 6/5.
Then the horrible truth seemed to dawn on Tory backers. The Tory price started to drift like the proverbial barge. When UKIP's price dropped below 1/2 again I suspected an overreaction and started to sell, but it seems I was wrong and it now looks like the price is on the long unrelenting march to 1.01. The polls are pretty definitive, but for those of us hoping for some relief an even worse sign is the Tory Party reaction.
Whereas they were once fiercely announcing they would 'throw the kitchen sink' at this one, it's now more a case of 'well, it's only a by-election....not important.' Having visited the constituency five times, Dave C has stopped pestering the locals and Grant Shapps, who denounced Reckless in such vibrant terms at the Party Conference, is silent once more.
It all suggests that they ain't gonna win, and they know it.
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Are you trying to suggest there's something wrong with being male?Poppett said:Most of you are men . boring men . you cant take losing ,or being wrong . Just like Mike , he blocks women that tell him he's wrong , Or at the very least after - timing . or as imo he is a poor gambler . Me and my bets £1000 -6/5 No overall .100 Boris to be next Tory leader at 8-1 three years ago PP . 50 Labour min Govt 8-1 50 labour/SNP 25-1 .100 SNP 21-26 seats . 100 Nigel to win any seat 2-1 200 Boris ( thanks to Emily ) 7/4 to stand at next election ,. You are right Eaterross I know nothing yours @SlutFromMars
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Speedy you need to calm down, take a deep breath and understand how spread betting works. Mike will most likely not be losing money, the absolute opposite. By laying at the odds he is he will be very likely to make a serious amount of money. His point is that UKIP are currently over-valued when analysed on the voting trends from GE2010 vs the opinion poll. Mike did NOT say that UKIP would lose the by election. He stated that it is much closer than the current betfair price would suggest and that the Tories are in with more of a chance than current odds. His final sentence was 'this is tighter than it looks.'Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
T
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
One thing I would say with betting from experience of winning and losing: never bet based on your own opinions. More often than not you will come a cropper if you do.0 -
Rubbish collection or last refuge of extreme left overs? The Greens with their hit the working classes with more taxes on energy, car use, regulations, they are the new pro job loss party.Poppett said:
Fluffy I will vote Green at the next electionFluffyThoughts said:
Stodge:stodge said:Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
Your exemplify that I was correct to refuse Dulwich and St Dunstans. Forest Hill Boys gave me an education and a rounded knowledge of society (something you appear to lack).
You are a waste of resources: Are you related to SoWo...?
:tumbleweed:
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NO way can you say "mike makes a lot from gambling "Peter_the_Punter said:
Mike makes a lot of money from betting on Politics and it's sensible to note what he says, carefully.Poppett said:
But he backed them AGAIN yesterday and I remember him talking up LABOUR againPeter_the_Punter said:
Mike's a naughty boy.No_Offence_Alan said:
But those who said they voted UKIP in 2010 might have in fact voted for Reckless in 2010, and just forgotten which party he stood for.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
Like me, he expected the Tories to put up a better fight in Rochester and backed them with the intention of laying off as the price shortened. It hasn't happened, and like me he is left with an ugly red blotch on his Betfair account.
If he can talk the price up a bit, he and I might pull some of our chestnuts out of the fire, but somehow I doubt it. The punters are looking at those polls and drawing the obvious conclusion.
Nice try Mike but for all the talk, Tory-buyers are thin on the ground, and I suspect it will stay that way until the election.
Rochester has been a funny betting market. When Hills opened up with 1/2 UKIP I thought it was a clear case of mispricing and shot up to my local bookie with a hundred quid in my sweaty paw. Like many others, I was amazed to see the price then drift, but I stuck to my guns and went in again at evens and 6/5.
Then the horrible truth seemed to dawn on Tory backers. The Tory price started to drift like the proverbial barge. When UKIP's price dropped below 1/2 again I suspected an overreaction and started to sell, but it seems I was wrong and it now looks like the price is on the long unrelenting march to 1.01. The polls are pretty definitive, but for those of us hoping for some relief an even worse sign is the Tory Party reaction.
Whereas they were once fiercely announcing they would 'throw the kitchen sink' at this one, it's now more a case of 'well, it's only a by-election....not important.' Having visited the constituency five times, Dave C has stopped pestering the locals and Grant Shapps, who denounced Reckless in such vibrant terms at the Party Conference, is silent once more.
It all suggests that they ain't gonna win, and they know it.0 -
Having looked at Labour on Friday and the Conservatives yesterday, it's the Lib Dems' turn today:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-november.html0 -
He is not quite alone. Still 3 weeks to go.Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
There's some interesting data in the above table - UKIP not as strong among the 18-24 age group but ahead among the 65+ age group which are (as is often said on here) the ones who vote and the ones who count. Also interesting that Tolhurst's support is also entirely from the 2010 CON group with almost no "new" support.
The photo shows "100 members of Team 2015" - I'd be fascinated to know how many Tory activists were in Rochester yesterday - we had tales of 600 going to Newark. It would also be interesting to know how many UKIP had on the ground as well.
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.0 -
Also I assume One labour and maybe 2 tories will come out of the hat after Reckless has won . Nigel will then keep UKIP in the media for a few months0
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To be fair, I understand OGH's argument and it's entirely possible the poll overstates the UKIP advantage slightly but the point is that UKIP has been able to engage the previously disengaged from politics and they can be (oddly enough) the most zealous of converts.Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.
OTOH, the Conservative 2010 vote has splintered to UKIP and to the Undecideds while the LD vote has vaporised. The Conservatives are well behind in all but the notoriously unreliable 18-24 age group so to contradict myself from the previous paragraph, it may look even better for Reckless. Let's say the final outcome is 50-30-10-10 (UKIP-Con-Lab-Others). That will make Reckless's defection decision look entirely justifiable.
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Nice talking if you want me on twitter its @slutFromMars-1
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There are some other interesting things too, with similar trends in other polls.NickPalmer said:
It's a generally grumpy sample. Cameron's rating drops faster than Miliband's, confidence in the government on the economy is well down, people believe the Commission more than Cameron on the budget demand, and if the EU gives any trouble on anything we want out.Millsy said:Today's YouGov poll has Miliband with his worst ever "doing well" scores and a plurality in all voting groups wanting to opt back in to the European Arrest Warrant.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf
On topic, clearly UKIP is interesting a lot of people who've been switched off politics, and that's a good thing - I'd think most will in fact vote in a hotly contested by-election.
UKIP have become for the first time in a yougov poll second in over 60's and are level with the Tories on C2DE voters, also they are not far behind from the lead in the Midlands/Wales region. Characteristics also found in other opinion polls too.
I'm emphasizing the Midlands because of the Enoch Powell legacy and that we have focused on UKIP's chances in the east and the south but not in the Midlands yet.0 -
All goods from 'No' supporting companies.....it almost might be on purpose.......Scott_P said:@mattholehouse: Now the SNP attack Miliband for his all-Scottish food bank donation http://t.co/fbZaVrltFX
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Just finished watching the programme about William Marshal, and very interesting it was too.0
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Yes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Didn't Private Eye do a similar "Prince Philip's view of the world" map many moons ago?Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
There's a long tradition of cartoons based on the Mappa Mundi theme. Marf's is bang in that tradition, as was the Private Eye one.
When her cartoon first appeared here a few weeks back somebody x-referred to an old Tory Map of The World. I think it appeared in Viz, and was 'Fatcher' oriented. It worked well, but I don't think a more modern one would. There was a request from one poster for an Ed one and I believe Marf is thinking about it, but it has to work visually, and it is of course a mistake to revisit the same theme too many times.
Thanks for your interest. I know she appreciates feedback.0 -
Whoever would have imagined Ed's self-satisfied posturing could blow up in his face like that?
The T-shirt fiasco is but the latest example of the complacency that has characterised his leadership, as well as his lack of self awareness and complete inability to connect with the everyday electorate. It is extraordinary that Labour even has a chance of winning most seats next year with him in charge. God bless the Toxic Tories and FPTP.0 -
My initial reaction reading the thread was that Mike was wrong, and seemed a bit desperate.... There never has been anything to suggest this would be anything other than a comfortable UKIP victorySpeedy said:I'm sorry OGH, your thread is ludicrous and instantly understood to be ludicrous.
In the Clacton by election opinion polls 73% 2010 OTHER's voted UKIP, even if they didn't have a candidate in 2010, exactly like Rochester:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
If your analysis is correct UKIP should have lost Clacton.
My advice to you is stop digging a bigger hole in your bank account.
The one thing I thought his argument might have going for if it turned out the polls in Clacton didnt show much support in Clacton for UKIP from non 2010 voters.. I was about to start digging around for the Clacton polls until I saw your post... seems clear enough to me
Another thing OGH may have missed is that a fair few of the people identifying as 2010 UKIP voters (when UKIP didn't stand) may well be 2010 Conservatives, therefore not flaky non voters at all. Because they have "misremembered" UKIP, doesn't mean they stayed at home
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Labour, Conservatives and the LibDems are stuck with their leaders until the GE.OldKingCole said:
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There is no chance of renegotiating the free movement of labour. It was one of the four fundamental freedoms in EEC Treaty. Nor is there much chance of a British government passing legislation designed to derogate from any of the United Kingdom's obligations under TEU or TFEU. So whether Cameron "backs down" or not is irrelevant.Socrates said:79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
On topic, I don't think our host's argument is ridiculous. Converting non-voters into voters has been a losing proposition for most politicians over the years and it's reasonable to assume that you'd need a good ground game to get some of these disengaged voters to the polling booth.
However, UKIP's lead is such that they should be heavy odds-on favourites in any event.0 -
If he goes against 79% of the British public, then the majority will vote to leave. It's pretty simple.Life_ina_market_town said:
There is no chance of renegotiating the free movement of labour. It was one of the four fundamental freedoms in EEC Treaty. Nor is there much chance of a British government passing legislation designed to derogate from any of the United Kingdom's obligations under TEU or TFEU. So whether Cameron "backs down" or not is irrelevant.Socrates said:79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
£50 evens that they do not. All winnings to Junior's site-maintenance fund.*SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have imagined Ed's self-satisfied posturing could blow up in his face like that?
The T-shirt fiasco is but the latest example of the complacency that has characterised his leadership, as well as his lack of self awareness and complete inability to connect with the everyday electorate. It is extraordinary that Labour even has a chance of winning most seats next year with him in charge. God bless the Toxic Tories and FPTP.
* Brent-Crude ~= £53.73. Eight-ish weeks to go....
EtA: All deals sealed via PtP. Please confirm acceptance.0 -
Morning Isam.isam said:
My initial reaction reading the thread was that Mike was wrong, and seemed a bit desperate.... There never has been anything to suggest this would be anything other than a comfortable UKIP victorySpeedy said:I'm sorry OGH, your thread is ludicrous and instantly understood to be ludicrous.
In the Clacton by election opinion polls 73% 2010 OTHER's voted UKIP, even if they didn't have a candidate in 2010, exactly like Rochester:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
If your analysis is correct UKIP should have lost Clacton.
My advice to you is stop digging a bigger hole in your bank account.
The one thing I thought his argument might have going for if it turned out the polls in Clacton didnt show much support in Clacton for UKIP from non 2010 voters.. I was about to start digging around for the Clacton polls until I saw your post... seems clear enough to me
Another thing OGH may have missed is that a fair few of the people identifying as 2010 UKIP voters (when UKIP didn't stand) may well be 2010 Conservatives, therefore not flaky non voters at all
David Little for Dover - 4/1 with Ladbrokes. Wadyatink?0 -
I know perfectly well about spread betting, I wouldn't touch OGH advise (or anyone's advice) with anything when it is not backed up by evidence.audreyanne said:
Speedy you need to calm down, take a deep breath and understand how spread betting works. Mike will most likely not be losing money, the absolute opposite. By laying at the odds he is he will be very likely to make a serious amount of money. His point is that UKIP are currently over-valued when analysed on the voting trends from GE2010 vs the opinion poll. Mike did NOT say that UKIP would lose the by election. He stated that it is much closer than the current betfair price would suggest and that the Tories are in with more of a chance than current odds. His final sentence was 'this is tighter than it looks.'Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
T
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
One thing I would say with betting from experience of winning and losing: never bet based on your own opinions. More often than not you will come a cropper if you do.
Articles such as these and the previous one about Labour having a chance in Rochester is only leading me to the suspicion that someone has placed a bet and is writing articles to try to move prices his way.-1 -
Then again it's Milliband alone who gives the Conservatives a fair chance of winning, even when 20% of their supporters have switched to UKIP.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have imagined Ed's self-satisfied posturing could blow up in his face like that?
The T-shirt fiasco is but the latest example of the complacency that has characterised his leadership, as well as his lack of self awareness and complete inability to connect with the everyday electorate. It is extraordinary that Labour even has a chance of winning most seats next year with him in charge. God bless the Toxic Tories and FPTP.
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Google “map of the world according to”. There’s quite a selection!Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Didn't Private Eye do a similar "Prince Philip's view of the world" map many moons ago?Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
There's a long tradition of cartoons based on the Mappa Mundi theme. Marf's is bang in that tradition, as was the Private Eye one.
When her cartoon first appeared here a few weeks back somebody x-referred to an old Tory Map of The World. I think it appeared in Viz, and was 'Fatcher' oriented. It worked well, but I don't think a more modern one would. There was a request from one poster for an Ed one and I believe Marf is thinking about it, but it has to work visually, and it is of course a mistake to revisit the same theme too many times.
Thanks for your interest. I know she appreciates feedback.0 -
This t-shirt debacle could be from an episode of Veep or the Thick of It. You can imagine the calls and conversations taking place now. It would be comedy gold if this bloke was not doing such damage to Labour.0
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So much for the seven a day campaign. Scott Oats owned by Pepsi-Co, upsets the anti MNC crowd. Would any of his 'donation' no meet his proposed limits on sugars and salts?CarlottaVance said:
All goods from 'No' supporting companies.....it almost might be on purpose.......Scott_P said:@mattholehouse: Now the SNP attack Miliband for his all-Scottish food bank donation http://t.co/fbZaVrltFX
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/04/labour-alcohol-unhealthy-food-tobacco0 -
I would retract that allegation (out of decency not as a threat). Mike's views may not be everyone's cup of tea but he strikes me as pretty scrupulous and if he has an interest he declares it. Indeed one of the features of pb.com is that it, and he, does not stand for that kind of price pumping.Speedy said:
I know perfectly well about spread betting, I wouldn't touch OGH advise (or anyone's advice) with anything when it is not backed up by evidence.audreyanne said:
Speedy you need to calm down, take a deep breath and understand how spread betting works. Mike will most likely not be losing money, the absolute opposite. By laying at the odds he is he will be very likely to make a serious amount of money. His point is that UKIP are currently over-valued when analysed on the voting trends from GE2010 vs the opinion poll. Mike did NOT say that UKIP would lose the by election. He stated that it is much closer than the current betfair price would suggest and that the Tories are in with more of a chance than current odds. His final sentence was 'this is tighter than it looks.'Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
T
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
One thing I would say with betting from experience of winning and losing: never bet based on your own opinions. More often than not you will come a cropper if you do.
Articles such as these and the previous one about Labour having a chance in Rochester is only leading me to the suspicion that someone has placed a bet and is writing articles to try to move prices his way.
He did back it up with evidence. Why don't you actually address the arguments he made on the thread header, attempting to demolish the 2010 statistics instead of just spouting rhetoric? You demean yourself.0 -
Not, I hope, when the horrendous consequences are explained to them during a proper campaign!Socrates said:
If he goes against 79% of the British public, then the majority will vote to leave. It's pretty simple.Life_ina_market_town said:
There is no chance of renegotiating the free movement of labour. It was one of the four fundamental freedoms in EEC Treaty. Nor is there much chance of a British government passing legislation designed to derogate from any of the United Kingdom's obligations under TEU or TFEU. So whether Cameron "backs down" or not is irrelevant.Socrates said:79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
People who identified as 2010 UKIP are just as likely to be 2010 Tories as DNV in my opinionantifrank said:On topic, I don't think our host's argument is ridiculous. Converting non-voters into voters has been a losing proposition for most politicians over the years and it's reasonable to assume that you'd need a good ground game to get some of these disengaged voters to the polling booth.
However, UKIP's lead is such that they should be heavy odds-on favourites in any event.0 -
These polls could actually be quite good for the Tories in terms of expectations management, everyone expects a solid UKIP and Reckless win, however as OGH points out the Tories are winning a plurality of those who voted Tory in 2010, which was not the case in Clacton and have an appealing, energetic and local candidate in Kelly Tolhurst. If she manages to make it close on the night, perhaps even force a recount and even more were she to win that would be a boost for the Tories as it is now not expected.
Meanwhile looks like the LDs will become 5th behind the Greens in yet another by-election, providing yet more ammunition for the Greens' case to be included in the debates0 -
Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html0 -
A fair point. A toxic party v a toxic leader. Who will win The None Of The Above Election? None of the above, probably.Sean_F said:
Then again it's Milliband alone who gives the Conservatives a fair chance of winning, even when 20% of their supporters have switched to UKIP.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have imagined Ed's self-satisfied posturing could blow up in his face like that?
The T-shirt fiasco is but the latest example of the complacency that has characterised his leadership, as well as his lack of self awareness and complete inability to connect with the everyday electorate. It is extraordinary that Labour even has a chance of winning most seats next year with him in charge. God bless the Toxic Tories and FPTP.
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The Mail is certainly having fun with this (and well done for good old investigative journalism - did no one in Brewers Green (stop me if you see any jokes in there...) think to look inside the T Shirt to see the 'Made in' label?
Cheap labour can never be fashionable
Ed Miliband and Harriet Harman looked ridiculous when they sported their ‘this is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirts last week.
It came across as cheap gesture politics – and now we know just how cheap.
The garments are being made by migrant labourers toiling for 62p an hour at factories in Mauritius....
...This stunt, from a man who is so ready to brandish his socialist credentials, is what hypocrisy looks like.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817327/Cheap-labour-never-fashionable-MAIL-SUNDAY-COIMMENT.html#ixzz3HuECHJv40 -
Even with The Adams Family childcare values?Socrates said:Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html
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Not sure about this. UKIP mainly seem to be a let-down when they are taking on Labour... Like with the PCC fiasco on Friday...0
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Ballyrotherham.dr_spyn said:
Even with The Adams Family childcare values?Socrates said:Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html0 -
Immigration will not be the sole or necessarily decisive issue in a putative referendum on EU membership. It is obvious that fewer than 79% of the electorate would vote to secede. It follows a large proportion of those who support continued EU membership do so notwithstanding the perceived deleterious consequences of free movement of labour. In any event, you appear to be assuming that a referendum on secession is going to happen. That is far from a certainty.Socrates said:If he goes against 79% of the British public, then the majority will vote to leave. It's pretty simple.
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No mention of Clegg as well then ?SouthamObserver said:This t-shirt debacle could be from an episode of Veep or the Thick of It. You can imagine the calls and conversations taking place now. It would be comedy gold if this bloke was not doing such damage to Labour.
Reading you all the time is the Thick of it.
You wetted yourself before the Scottish referendum, the hopeless tipster.
What is your latest prediction for the GE ?0 -
Indeed, but mostly they are diagramatic rather than cartoons.OldKingCole said:
Google “map of the world according to”. There’s quite a selection!Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Didn't Private Eye do a similar "Prince Philip's view of the world" map many moons ago?Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
There's a long tradition of cartoons based on the Mappa Mundi theme. Marf's is bang in that tradition, as was the Private Eye one.
When her cartoon first appeared here a few weeks back somebody x-referred to an old Tory Map of The World. I think it appeared in Viz, and was 'Fatcher' oriented. It worked well, but I don't think a more modern one would. There was a request from one poster for an Ed one and I believe Marf is thinking about it, but it has to work visually, and it is of course a mistake to revisit the same theme too many times.
Thanks for your interest. I know she appreciates feedback.
I couldn't find the Viz one, nor Marf's. Google isn't what it used to be. :-(
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Since Sinn Fein means “ourselves alone” what’s their position on Ireland’s membership of the EU?Socrates said:Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html0 -
Hi PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
Morning Isam.isam said:
My initial reaction reading the thread was that Mike was wrong, and seemed a bit desperate.... There never has been anything to suggest this would be anything other than a comfortable UKIP victorySpeedy said:I'm sorry OGH, your thread is ludicrous and instantly understood to be ludicrous.
In the Clacton by election opinion polls 73% 2010 OTHER's voted UKIP, even if they didn't have a candidate in 2010, exactly like Rochester:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
If your analysis is correct UKIP should have lost Clacton.
My advice to you is stop digging a bigger hole in your bank account.
The one thing I thought his argument might have going for if it turned out the polls in Clacton didnt show much support in Clacton for UKIP from non 2010 voters.. I was about to start digging around for the Clacton polls until I saw your post... seems clear enough to me
Another thing OGH may have missed is that a fair few of the people identifying as 2010 UKIP voters (when UKIP didn't stand) may well be 2010 Conservatives, therefore not flaky non voters at all
David Little for Dover - 4/1 with Ladbrokes. Wadyatink?
Had it as one of my next bests on my UKIP list from May 2013, so yes they have a decent chance.. 4/1seems alright to me
Should be 2nd favs IMO
Wish I was on Pulpstars bet with Antifrank.. I reckon UKIP will get 40 odd second places0 -
The "horrendous consequences" of leaving are largely a figment of the Europhile's imagination. They have as much likelihood of coming to fruition as the "horrendous consequences" of not joining the Eurozone. A proper campaign will make this clear - just as Farage mopped the floor with Nick Clegg during the EU debates.OldKingCole said:
Not, I hope, when the horrendous consequences are explained to them during a proper campaign!Socrates said:
If he goes against 79% of the British public, then the majority will vote to leave. It's pretty simple.Life_ina_market_town said:
There is no chance of renegotiating the free movement of labour. It was one of the four fundamental freedoms in EEC Treaty. Nor is there much chance of a British government passing legislation designed to derogate from any of the United Kingdom's obligations under TEU or TFEU. So whether Cameron "backs down" or not is irrelevant.Socrates said:79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
I think its mainly being criticised by people who haven't either read the whole thing...or understood it......Yes, UKIP will probably win - but they've had their candidate in the field for years, not days, so it may be closer than the headline figures suggest.....antifrank said:On topic, I don't think our host's argument is ridiculous.
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For once, there's an important point in such a (non-)story. Politicians are very keen to lecture large companies on the importance of vetting their supply chains to ensure that there is no exploitation of child labour or slave labour. Perhaps it will now dawn on them that this is by no means a simple process and that what they airily demand of companies can be very onerous.CarlottaVance said:The Mail is certainly having fun with this (and well done for good old investigative journalism - did no one in Brewers Green (stop me if you see any jokes in there...) think to look inside the T Shirt to see the 'Made in' label?
Cheap labour can never be fashionable
Ed Miliband and Harriet Harman looked ridiculous when they sported their ‘this is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirts last week.
It came across as cheap gesture politics – and now we know just how cheap.
The garments are being made by migrant labourers toiling for 62p an hour at factories in Mauritius....
...This stunt, from a man who is so ready to brandish his socialist credentials, is what hypocrisy looks like.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817327/Cheap-labour-never-fashionable-MAIL-SUNDAY-COIMMENT.html#ixzz3HuECHJv4
Just a thought for our elected representatives to consider.0 -
Yes the idea behind the cartoon is hardly original. I've got an page bookmarked somewhere with scores of very amusing variations on the theme. It's not a new joke.No_Offence_Alan said:
Didn't Private Eye do a similar "Prince Philip's view of the world" map many moons ago?Peter_the_Punter said:FluffyThoughts said:Junior or Auntie-Hortence must be on duty today. Total-humour-failure....
Well done to Marf for her popular 'UKIP World-Map'. Probably the last original thought allowed on this site....
Lol!
Yes, Marf in trouble over at the Mirror.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183
Seems her UKIP Map of The World cartoon amused the Kippers, but upset the Tories!
Maybe YouGov should do some polling on which Party has the best sense of humour.
The originality here lies in the style and presentation.0 -
Same as it has been since the summer of 2010: hung Parliament.Yorkcity said:
No mention of Clegg as well then ?SouthamObserver said:This t-shirt debacle could be from an episode of Veep or the Thick of It. You can imagine the calls and conversations taking place now. It would be comedy gold if this bloke was not doing such damage to Labour.
Reading you all the time is the Thick of it.
You wetted yourself before the Scottish referendum, the hopeless tipster.
What is your latest prediction for the GE ?
The day Ed was elected I said on here it was a very bad day for Labour. Unfortunately, I have been proved right on that. With knobs on.
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I shall struggle to live that bet down, I think.isam said:
Hi PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
Morning Isam.isam said:
My initial reaction reading the thread was that Mike was wrong, and seemed a bit desperate.... There never has been anything to suggest this would be anything other than a comfortable UKIP victorySpeedy said:I'm sorry OGH, your thread is ludicrous and instantly understood to be ludicrous.
In the Clacton by election opinion polls 73% 2010 OTHER's voted UKIP, even if they didn't have a candidate in 2010, exactly like Rochester:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
If your analysis is correct UKIP should have lost Clacton.
My advice to you is stop digging a bigger hole in your bank account.
The one thing I thought his argument might have going for if it turned out the polls in Clacton didnt show much support in Clacton for UKIP from non 2010 voters.. I was about to start digging around for the Clacton polls until I saw your post... seems clear enough to me
Another thing OGH may have missed is that a fair few of the people identifying as 2010 UKIP voters (when UKIP didn't stand) may well be 2010 Conservatives, therefore not flaky non voters at all
David Little for Dover - 4/1 with Ladbrokes. Wadyatink?
Had it as one of my next bests on my UKIP list from May 2013, so yes they have a decent chance.. 4/1seems alright to me
Should be 2nd favs IMO
Wish I was on Pulpstars bet with Antifrank.. I reckon UKIP will get 40 odd second places0 -
It's 2010 LD looking for the next best thing I believe, not Ed Milliband, some have switched from Labour to UKIP because UKIP offered a choice that was closer to them or they are NOTA's, and some are moving to the Green party because again they feel it's closer to them.Sean_F said:
Then again it's Milliband alone who gives the Conservatives a fair chance of winning, even when 20% of their supporters have switched to UKIP.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have imagined Ed's self-satisfied posturing could blow up in his face like that?
The T-shirt fiasco is but the latest example of the complacency that has characterised his leadership, as well as his lack of self awareness and complete inability to connect with the everyday electorate. It is extraordinary that Labour even has a chance of winning most seats next year with him in charge. God bless the Toxic Tories and FPTP.
But none of those movements would have happened if UKIP and the Greens were not viable alternatives or didn't know of their existence.
As with the SNP there is nothing that can be done, scotland is going Quebec, it will take a decade for the public to understand that voting SNP in westminster elections is useless.
Britain looks to have successive minority governments until the SNP implodes, just like Canada a decade ago.0 -
they have been against all moves to further integrationOldKingCole said:
Since Sinn Fein means “ourselves alone” what’s their position on Ireland’s membership of the EU?Socrates said:Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html0 -
audreyanne said:
I would retract that allegation (out of decency not as a threat). Mike's views may not be everyone's cup of tea but he strikes me as pretty scrupulous and if he has an interest he declares it. Indeed one of the features of pb.com is that it, and he, does not stand for that kind of price pumping.Speedy said:
I know perfectly well about spread betting, I wouldn't touch OGH advise (or anyone's advice) with anything when it is not backed up by evidence.audreyanne said:
Speedy you need to calm down, take a deep breath and understand how spread betting works. Mike will most likely not be losing money, the absolute opposite. By laying at the odds he is he will be very likely to make a serious amount of money. His point is that UKIP are currently over-valued when analysed on the voting trends from GE2010 vs the opinion poll. Mike did NOT say that UKIP would lose the by election. He stated that it is much closer than the current betfair price would suggest and that the Tories are in with more of a chance than current odds. His final sentence was 'this is tighter than it looks.'Speedy said:
The writing is on the wall for about 2 weeks now, UKIP are going to win Rochester, the polls say it, the ground campaign says it, even the Tory party has read the writing. Only OGH refuses to read it, sadly for his bank account.stodge said:Morning all
T
Welcome along to Poppett - hope you stay with us. This forum is strongly anti-Labour and any critique of the Conservatives is immediately jumped on by one of the clique but don't worry about bring called a troll - the real trolls are the people who re-tweet such unbiased commentators as Hugo Rifkind.
One thing I would say with betting from experience of winning and losing: never bet based on your own opinions. More often than not you will come a cropper if you do.
Articles such as these and the previous one about Labour having a chance in Rochester is only leading me to the suspicion that someone has placed a bet and is writing articles to try to move prices his way.
He did back it up with evidence. Why don't you actually address the arguments he made on the thread header, attempting to demolish the 2010 statistics instead of just spouting rhetoric? You demean yourself.
Yes.
'Talking up your own book' is a pretty serious offence amongst serious punters. You only need to be caught doing it once for your credibility to be totally shot.
I've known Mike a long time and have never had any reason to suspect him of doing this. Like most punters, he will declare an interest if there is one to declare.
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That’s doesn’t appear to be what Farage’s former friends in the City are saying.Socrates said:
The "horrendous consequences" of leaving are largely a figment of the Europhile's imagination. They have as much likelihood of coming to fruition as the "horrendous consequences" of not joining the Eurozone. A proper campaign will make this clear - just as Farage mopped the floor with Nick Clegg during the EU debates.OldKingCole said:
Not, I hope, when the horrendous consequences are explained to them during a proper campaign!Socrates said:
If he goes against 79% of the British public, then the majority will vote to leave. It's pretty simple.Life_ina_market_town said:
There is no chance of renegotiating the free movement of labour. It was one of the four fundamental freedoms in EEC Treaty. Nor is there much chance of a British government passing legislation designed to derogate from any of the United Kingdom's obligations under TEU or TFEU. So whether Cameron "backs down" or not is irrelevant.Socrates said:79% agree that "the dangers of uncontrolled immigration from the EU are so great that Britain should set a firm limit, even if this means defying EU rules"
Cameron can't back down to Juncker and Merkel on this now.0 -
The assumption that people who say they voted UKIP in 2010 didn't vote at all is where I think OGH is wrongCarlottaVance said:
I think its mainly being criticised by people who haven't either read the whole thing...or understood it......Yes, UKIP will probably win - but they've had their candidate in the field for years, not days, so it may be closer than the headline figures suggest.....antifrank said:On topic, I don't think our host's argument is ridiculous.
Clacton polls had similar levels of "DNV"/mis-rememberers and UKIP hosed up0 -
I have said in the past that Gerry Adams is going to win in Ireland.Socrates said:Sinn Fein in first place in Irish polls:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-the-most-popular-party-in-ireland-new-poll-reveals-30710365.html
The Irish seem to be looking for an outside savior for years, and the SF is rising since Ireland went bust in 2010.0
