Just 56% of the Mark Reckless support is from those who voted for parties that were on the ballot at GE10. That compares with 85.2% for the CON candidate. A complication is that 42 people told the pollster that they voted UKIP last time when, as we all know, the party did not contest the seat.
Comments
2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)
EdM has 50% support of Labour VI on well/badly as leader and 40% of their 2010 VI.
Cons lose 24% of their 2010 VI to UKIP and retention is down to 69%
1) People who would have voted for them in 2010 had they stood
2) People who have switched from Lab to UKIP in national VI (maybe 10% nationally right now)
3) People who vote Lab in general election but will take the opportunity to give the establishment parties a kicking since it's only a by-election.
Decline in red LDs as LD 2010 split is:
Cons : 14
LAB: 26
LDs: 28
UKIP: 15
Green: 13
Nats:4
Cameron: -14 (-5) [-41]
Miliband: -55 (-4) [-65]
How bad does a Labour leader have to be to be well below a posh Tory in Scotland?
There is a movement from Scotland to South Yorkshire and then onto Southern England of Labour working class votes to nationalists.
I think UKIP will win Rochester this time, but I think you're right in your thrust about value and it looks to me as if they will lose it in May.
This analysis also confirms something I firmly now believe. A lot of UKIP support comes from malcontents: people who don't normally vote. These are people outside the normal political process. It's a protest party. UKIP's challenge will be getting these people to bother voting on May 7th and, frankly, I don't think they will.
My strong sense is to do what you have done here and focus on polling which places most weighting on those who voted last time.
He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html
"Why should I go out and vote for that knob?"
"Erm.......because he's not a Tory?"
"Aye - and neither are UKIP or Greens or Can't Be Arsed Party...."
"This is what a sweat-shop garment looks like"
Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25
Everyone else votes instrumentally. "You lot were no good last time (and/or I don't believe a word you say) so I'm voting against you." This may or may not involve tactical voting.
The older I've got the more I've realised that politics is about identity; if you fail the "understands people like us" sniff test, very little else matters
CON 30.29%
LAB 30.16%
Fourth time in ten that a minimal Tory lead has been implied. Labour are down 4-5 points in the last six weeks.
In November and with the novelty value of UKIP defectors, I would forecast a low turnout. Postal voters will be key, and in this part of the world mostly Tory voters. I cannot see many 2010 non voters being enthusiastic to turn out for the turncoat.
Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)
If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....
As the old saying goes "many a beautiful theory was destroyed by a single ugly fact"
When I look at the Leics seats though:
The three Leicester seats are all safe Labour, Leicester West may have the strongest Kipper demographic, but I cannot see them unseating the delightful Liz Kendall.
Of the seven in the County of Leics and Rutland all are Tory at present, and apart from Loughborough (where Nicky Morgan should hold on) I cannot see any changing with the exception of NW Leics where the demographic is better for UKIP and HS2 an issue. Andrew Bridgen has been mooted as a kipper defector, but if he stays Tory then should hold on.
The BNP had a significant vote in 2010, but that should collapse and I could see the Kippers coming second in a few seats, but to me The 10 constituencies look the same political colours next year to 2010. No change.
Most Tories, I think, would be quite happy to accept my hypothesis. It isn't in the least hostile or demeaning to the Party or its followers.
Personally, I do not get too agitated by low turnout elections. If someone is not interested or not bothered, then their opinion is of little worth anyway.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29868458
The wage is a pittance by our standards, but what is the alternative in Mauritius, starvation, or gutting fish? CSR is a minefield, and Harman has blundered into it.
It should be sackcloth and ashes for her appearance next Wednesday.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/lvgscxlk06dvhaa/12-month YouGov 02 November 2014.jpg#
How many Tories on here are happy with the coalition, rather than having Cameron at the mercy of some of his back benchers? That's hardly "my party right or wrong"!
Fill in the blank: "Our family has always voted _____"
Does anyone feel like doing London analysis sometime? I think Labour will out-perform there but by how much, and will it be significant in terms of seats?
F1: Sauber confirm Ericsson as a driver next year. This was mentioned during qualifying but is now official. It's possible Giedo Van Der Garde may get the other seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29868017
I'm more interested in how you manage to comment on two comments in one go. Most impressive!
@DAaronovitch: I wonder how Susan Calman's much applauded "Bad Cam didn't wear the T-shirt" attack on @BBCRadio4's News Quiz is going to sound in repeat. http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1478554.ece
Mind you, for all either of us know, Ed Balls is cringing just as much as anyone else...
Labour collapsing even further is going to have all sorts or weird implications for the GE.
Betting Post
Bottas for a podium at 1.89, no hedge. Not the most exciting bet, but one that has a decent prospect of coming off.
Will post the pre-race piece fairly soon.
How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/america-pre-race.html
Worth checking if you're thinking of betting as there are about four cars with penalties.
Some, of course, talk about it rather more.
He happily spent years wittering on about horses, pasties and toffs. he set his political agenda on trivia and now it's coming back to bite him. Basically all it shows is he has nothing worth saying.
Weirdos don't become PM via a GE.
Doesn't the Labour party condemn organisations which exploit the poor ?
I wonder what the profit margin is on a Tshirt sold at £45 which is made at £0.62ph.
https://metro.co.uk/2014/11/01/ed-miliband-criticized-from-every-direction-after-giving-homeless-woman-just-two-pence-in-manchester-4930490/
Can someone tell me when I next need to make an appearance at 'Dirty Dicks'?
rephrase:
Can someone tell me when they wish for me not to make a reappearance at 'Dirty Dicks'...!
:somewhat-busy:
Looking at Harman and Miliband posing away, it did strike me that there are two tees in twats...and two twats in tees....
This is yet another dreadful moment for Miliband. All politicians have their moments with silly stunts (baseball caps and hugging hoodies) but Ed Miliband seems to make cock-up after cock-up on a weekly basis.
I'm beginning to think he is a worse Labour leader than Michael Foot. Cameron won't have a Falklands to crush Miliband but I still can't see Labour winning with him.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf
Maybe tim should restart his own blog; "Trolling for Beginners"?
:belated-welcome-to-the-kindergarten-SwissBob:
Foot had principles, no Tory has ever denied him that. And a donkey jacket, too, for this time of year. (In his time it was quite cool in November, of course, rather than California-on-Thames...)
Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.
Ed gives 2p to a beggar.
Harriet and the T shirt stunt.
If only it had been Teresa May wearing the T shirt, and Dave giving to that non registered for tax and voting purposes beggar.
Labour need to get a grip of their PR team, but it would need more than the 72.5 hours (that the t shirt maker needs to earn) to spell out fcuk up to their hapless leadership team.
Leave EU: 43%
stay in: 37%
p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7361078/Michael-Foot-and-the-donkey-jacket-that-wasnt.html
The reason most of those people didn't vote in 2010 was because there was no party putting forward policies worth voting for, not because they couldn't be bothered.
Clearly the prospect that the decline in voter turnout since 1992 was due to voters taking a positive decision to abstain due to the policies of the big three rather than apathy really frightens the establishment.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817318/Heard-one-Tory-Summit-beat-UKIP-MPs-boozed-3am-told-filthy-jokes-enraged-Osborne-picture.html
A rotten rotten establishment.