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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

Just 56% of the Mark Reckless support is from those who voted for parties that were on the ballot at GE10. That compares with 85.2% for the CON candidate. A complication is that 42 people told the pollster that they voted UKIP last time when, as we all know, the party did not contest the seat.

Read the full story here

LordWakefield

Confirmation Bias.

asjohnstone

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Financier

YG

EdM has 50% support of Labour VI on well/badly as leader and 40% of their 2010 VI.

Cons lose 24% of their 2010 VI to UKIP and retention is down to 69%

MarqueeMark

But Labour only has no chance precisely because its voters are peeling off to UKIP. They should be highly competitive if UKIP weren't standing. They could also have come through the middle of a seriously split Tory/UKIP vote. 35% Labour, 30% Con 30% UKIP could have been quite possible if they had thrown the kitchen sink at it.

MarqueeMark

Can anyone seriously imagine Labour under Blair/Campbell/Mandelson giving up on Kent?

edmundintokyo

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

The switchers from Lab aren't necessarily tactical. UKIP will be getting:
1) People who would have voted for them in 2010 had they stood
2) People who have switched from Lab to UKIP in national VI (maybe 10% nationally right now)
3) People who vote Lab in general election but will take the opportunity to give the establishment parties a kicking since it's only a by-election.

Financier

YG

Decline in red LDs as LD 2010 split is:

Cons : 14
LAB: 26
LDs: 28
UKIP: 15
Green: 13
Nats:4

CarlottaVance

I'm not sure if it's a record, but Miliband's "doing well" rating has slumped further: (net doing well, diff vs week ago [Scotland]

Cameron: -14 (-5) [-41]
Miliband: -55 (-4) [-65]

How bad does a Labour leader have to be to be well below a posh Tory in Scotland?

chestnut

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

I read it as Labour voters preferring UKIP to Labour.

There is a movement from Scotland to South Yorkshire and then onto Southern England of Labour working class votes to nationalists.

CarlottaVance

MarqueeMark said:

Can anyone seriously imagine Labour under Blair/Campbell/Mandelson giving up on Kent?

Quite. What price "one nation Labour"? After all they did hold an earlier version of this seat from 1997-2010......

audreyanne

A brilliant thread Mike.

I think UKIP will win Rochester this time, but I think you're right in your thrust about value and it looks to me as if they will lose it in May.

This analysis also confirms something I firmly now believe. A lot of UKIP support comes from malcontents: people who don't normally vote. These are people outside the normal political process. It's a protest party. UKIP's challenge will be getting these people to bother voting on May 7th and, frankly, I don't think they will.

My strong sense is to do what you have done here and focus on polling which places most weighting on those who voted last time.

Financier

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

I'm not sure if it's a record, but Miliband's "doing well" rating has slumped further: (net doing well, diff vs week ago [Scotland]

Cameron: -14 (-5) [-41]
Miliband: -55 (-4) [-65]

How bad does a Labour leader have to be to be well below a posh Tory in Scotland?

41% adrift.... I can't believe that won't make a huge impact on Labour getting out the vote. You can imagine the doorstep conversations with their canvassers next April:

"Why should I go out and vote for that knob?"

"Erm.......because he's not a Tory?"

"Aye - and neither are UKIP or Greens or Can't Be Arsed Party...."

MarqueeMark

What chance Ed and Harriet and Nick Clegg turning up to PMQs this week in a T-shirt saying

"This is what a sweat-shop garment looks like"

chestnut

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

chestnut

40% of the UKIP vote in Rochester also seem to be Did Not Vote from 2010.

MarqueeMark

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Not so much swingback as swingaway.....

Innocent_Abroad

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them. (I suspect this is also true for those Lib Dems who wear sandals.)

Everyone else votes instrumentally. "You lot were no good last time (and/or I don't believe a word you say) so I'm voting against you." This may or may not involve tactical voting.

asjohnstone

Depending on previous non voters has an obvious flaw, they are unlikely to actually vote.

The older I've got the more I've realised that politics is about identity; if you fail the "understands people like us" sniff test, very little else matters

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

chestnut

Implied national Vote from 2010:Now VI in Sample:

CON 30.29%
LAB 30.16%

Fourth time in ten that a minimal Tory lead has been implied. Labour are down 4-5 points in the last six weeks.

Innocent_Abroad

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart. Obviously Labour has some solidaristic voters, but far fewer than the Blue Team.

foxinsoxuk

asjohnstone said:

Depending on previous non voters has an obvious flaw, they are unlikely to actually vote.

The older I've got the more I've realised that politics is about identity; if you fail the "understands people like us" sniff test, very little else matters

Are there many people in Rochester who think Reckless "understands people like us"?

In November and with the novelty value of UKIP defectors, I would forecast a low turnout. Postal voters will be key, and in this part of the world mostly Tory voters. I cannot see many 2010 non voters being enthusiastic to turn out for the turncoat.

richardDodd

MM..They should be forced to wear one saying "This is what a stupid prat looks like"

Innocent_Abroad

foxinsoxuk said:

asjohnstone said:

Depending on previous non voters has an obvious flaw, they are unlikely to actually vote.

The older I've got the more I've realised that politics is about identity; if you fail the "understands people like us" sniff test, very little else matters

Are there many people in Rochester who think Reckless "understands people like us"?

In November and with the novelty value of UKIP defectors, I would forecast a low turnout. Postal voters will be key, and in this part of the world mostly Tory voters. I cannot see many 2010 non voters being enthusiastic to turn out for the turncoat.

But only a Tory identifier - by definition not a 2010 non-voter - would call Reckless a turncoat, surely?

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart.

But the Tory PM isn't disappointing his followers:

Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)

If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....

OldKingCole

chestnut said:

Implied national Vote from 2010:Now VI in Sample:

CON 30.29%
LAB 30.16%

Fourth time in ten that a minimal Tory lead has been implied. Labour are down 4-5 points in the last six weeks.

Apart from winning the PCC by-election (and that was muted), when did Labour have any good Press coverage in the last few weeks? As opposed to bad?

Scrapheap_as_was

*** LIKE ***

Innocent_Abroad

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart.

But the Tory PM isn't disappointing his followers:

Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)

If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....

That's why I said "PM", not "leader"!

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart.

But the Tory PM isn't disappointing his followers:

Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)

If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....

That's why I said "PM", not "leader"!

Have you any data that supports rather than contradicts your hypothesis?

As the old saying goes "many a beautiful theory was destroyed by a single ugly fact"

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Subsamples are always tricky, but that if that is a pointer to a trend then Labour is in big trouble!

When I look at the Leics seats though:

The three Leicester seats are all safe Labour, Leicester West may have the strongest Kipper demographic, but I cannot see them unseating the delightful Liz Kendall.

Of the seven in the County of Leics and Rutland all are Tory at present, and apart from Loughborough (where Nicky Morgan should hold on) I cannot see any changing with the exception of NW Leics where the demographic is better for UKIP and HS2 an issue. Andrew Bridgen has been mooted as a kipper defector, but if he stays Tory then should hold on.

The BNP had a significant vote in 2010, but that should collapse and I could see the Kippers coming second in a few seats, but to me The 10 constituencies look the same political colours next year to 2010. No change.

Innocent_Abroad

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart.

But the Tory PM isn't disappointing his followers:

Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)

If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....

That's why I said "PM", not "leader"!

Have you any data that supports rather than contradicts your hypothesis?

As the old saying goes "many a beautiful theory was destroyed by a single ugly fact"

One or the other but not both. I could easily produce supporting data, but as you yourself say, a single ugly fact would make it all irrelevant.

Most Tories, I think, would be quite happy to accept my hypothesis. It isn't in the least hostile or demeaning to the Party or its followers.

foxinsoxuk

Innocent_Abroad said:

foxinsoxuk said:

asjohnstone said:

Depending on previous non voters has an obvious flaw, they are unlikely to actually vote.

The older I've got the more I've realised that politics is about identity; if you fail the "understands people like us" sniff test, very little else matters

Are there many people in Rochester who think Reckless "understands people like us"?

In November and with the novelty value of UKIP defectors, I would forecast a low turnout. Postal voters will be key, and in this part of the world mostly Tory voters. I cannot see many 2010 non voters being enthusiastic to turn out for the turncoat.

But only a Tory identifier - by definition not a 2010 non-voter - would call Reckless a turncoat, surely?

Sure, turncoat is my description. 2010 non-voters are not likely to turnout for anyone. There maybe some Labour leaning ones who could not stomach Gordon, but most do not care enough to put an X in a box.

Personally, I do not get too agitated by low turnout elections. If someone is not interested or not bothered, then their opinion is of little worth anyway.

dr_spyn

Thanks to Harriet Harman's attempt to leap on another Milibandwagon, The Fawcett Society are in the news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29868458

The wage is a pittance by our standards, but what is the alternative in Mauritius, starvation, or gutting fish? CSR is a minefield, and Harman has blundered into it.

SimonStClare

MarqueeMark said:

What chance Ed and Harriet and Nick Clegg turning up to PMQs this week in a T-shirt saying

"This is what a sweat-shop garment looks like"

Hmmm, Ed and Clegg are always impeccably turned out for PMQs and I have no problems with their choice to wear that T-shirt, just as I have no problem with the PM declining to do so – Harman, on the other hand quite rightly deserves to be ridiculed for her stupid political stunt.

It should be sackcloth and ashes for her appearance next Wednesday.

Gadfly

5-poll moving average chart of YouGov polls for the last 12 months...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/lvgscxlk06dvhaa/12-month YouGov 02 November 2014.jpg#

Poppett

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

asjohnstone said:

What I read here is Labour voters willing to go UKIP as a tactical anti tory vote where Labour has no chance.

2015 is going to be almost impossible to predict, people are much more inclined to vote tactically than before. (expect tories for some reason)

Tories vote solidaristically - it's a way of saying who they are. What the Party does or does not do in office is very much a secondary consideration for most of them.

You mean like Labour voters in Rotherham?

Actually, no. Obviously I'm generalising, but my key point is that a Tory PM can disappoint his followers whilst yet retaining their vote far more than can his Labour counterpart.

But the Tory PM isn't disappointing his followers:

Net doing well among VI: (2010 vote)
Cameron:+94 (+52)
Miliband: +6 (-15)

If anything, the data suggests your hypothesis is the wrong way round - Labour voters are remaining loyal to the party, despite their poor opinion of its leader....

That's why I said "PM", not "leader"!

Have you any data that supports rather than contradicts your hypothesis?

As the old saying goes "many a beautiful theory was destroyed by a single ugly fact"

One or the other but not both. I could easily produce supporting data, but as you yourself say, a single ugly fact would make it all irrelevant.

Most Tories, I think, would be quite happy to accept my hypothesis. It isn't in the least hostile or demeaning to the Party or its followers.

This one doesn't. I suspect "most Tories" are driven by a pragmatic "what works" - which usually (but not always) ends up being most closely what is proposed by the Conservative party.

How many Tories on here are happy with the coalition, rather than having Cameron at the mercy of some of his back benchers? That's hardly "my party right or wrong"!

Fill in the blank: "Our family has always voted _____"

richardDodd

Poppett .. it seems to be somewhat out of touch to pay 45 quid for a T shirt..

audreyanne

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election, whatever Nick Palmer claims when he doorsteps them in his Labour rosette. I spoke to an educated person last week who voted UKIP at the Euros and mentioned the GE to her. her reply was 'oh is there a General Election next year?'

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Good grief. If correct Labour has massive problems.

Does anyone feel like doing London analysis sometime? I think Labour will out-perform there but by how much, and will it be significant in terms of seats?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Sauber confirm Ericsson as a driver next year. This was mentioned during qualifying but is now official. It's possible Giedo Van Der Garde may get the other seat.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29868017

SimonStClare

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

Nice try Poppett – but you’re fooling no one ; )

matt

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Subsamples are always tricky, but that if that is a pointer to a trend then Labour is in big trouble!

When I look at the Leics seats though:

The three Leicester seats are all safe Labour, Leicester West may have the strongest Kipper demographic, but I cannot see them unseating the delightful Liz Kendall.

Of the seven in the County of Leics and Rutland all are Tory at present, and apart from Loughborough (where Nicky Morgan should hold on) I cannot see any changing with the exception of NW Leics where the demographic is better for UKIP and HS2 an issue. Andrew Bridgen has been mooted as a kipper defector, but if he stays Tory then should hold on.

The BNP had a significant vote in 2010, but that should collapse and I could see the Kippers coming second in a few seats, but to me The 10 constituencies look the same political colours next year to 2010. No change.

I wouldn't be so sure about Nicky Morgan, although she's certainly working the constituency. What she has going for her is that the Labour candidate is, by any standards, not very good. He's not helped by an inability to commit: see this week's local paper where he writes that he is against various house building in the constituency, explains that Labour would do it better but is not helped by a. Milliband's commitment to concrete enthusiastically; and (b) Labour's unwillingness to say what that means in practice.

Innocent_Abroad

audreyanne said:

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election, whatever Nick Palmer claims when he doorsteps them in his Labour rosette. I spoke to an educated person last week who voted UKIP at the Euros and mentioned the GE to her. her reply was 'oh is there a General Election next year?'

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Good grief. If correct Labour has massive problems.

Does anyone feel like doing London analysis sometime? I think Labour will out-perform there but by how much, and will it be significant in terms of seats?

You might well find something if you go through yesterday's comments.

I'm more interested in how you manage to comment on two comments in one go. Most impressive!

Millsy

I'm surprised so many former Labour voters are plumping for Ukip over Tory or Undecided (in Rochester) - will probably do for the blues if they can't get their vote out

matt

dr_spyn said:

Thanks to Harriet Harman's attempt to leap on another Milibandwagon, The Fawcett Society are in the news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29868458

The wage is a pittance by our standards, but what is the alternative in Mauritius, starvation, or gutting fish? CSR is a minefield, and Harman has blundered into it.

There's quite a lot in Mauritius. Tourism and professional services come to mind immediately.

Scott_P

MarqueeMark said:

What chance Ed and Harriet and Nick Clegg turning up to PMQs this week in a T-shirt saying

"This is what a sweat-shop garment looks like"

@KayBurley: Is this what a sweatshop T-shirt looks like? http://t.co/ee4YwJ6wPj http://t.co/uX4Sqrf9xC

@DAaronovitch: I wonder how Susan Calman's much applauded "Bad Cam didn't wear the T-shirt" attack on @BBCRadio4's News Quiz is going to sound in repeat.

This is what sham feminism looks like
Being pictured in a slogan T-shirt for a glossy magazine is far from what the suffragettes meant by ‘deeds not words’. So how do you fight for women’s rights now?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1478554.ece

Alanbrooke

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

what a pity then Miliband and Balls have spent the last 4 years avoiding talking about anything substantive and leave us only bacon sandwiches and 2p donations on which we can judge their suitability for government.

Poppett

You cant dress it up Mike you are chasing money with taking the "mugs" money on betfair . I will see if I can put some more up for you to take . . The tories will not win and so you can dress it up anyway you can but you are better waiting to recover all you recent losses on something else

Fat_Steve

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

Regardless of the reason - bacon sandwiches or something else - people in the real world, as polled by you gov, do have an opinion about Ed Milliband - only 19 % think he's doing a good job. See you gov co uk today's poll. I don't think anyone is out of touch if they wonder how that might affect the general election result.

Gadfly

audreyanne said:

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election,

I gave this some thought yesterday and have concluded that I agree with you that we are still mid-term. I can see an analogy with pregnancy and childbirth ;-)

Innocent_Abroad

Alanbrooke said:

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

what a pity then Miliband and Balls have spent the last 4 years avoiding talking about anything substantive and leave us only bacon sandwiches and 2p donations on which we can judge their suitability for government.

Alan, we both know that whether the donation had been 2p, 20p, £2 or £20 it would have been wrong in some way. Thet's what the "Daily Mail" does to Labour leaders.

Mind you, for all either of us know, Ed Balls is cringing just as much as anyone else...

TGOHF

Cam was right not to wear the tshirt as it was produced by a fake charity named after a toilet. The sweatshop revelations are just a bonus.

Labour collapsing even further is going to have all sorts or weird implications for the GE.

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

Bottas for a podium at 1.89, no hedge. Not the most exciting bet, but one that has a decent prospect of coming off.

Will post the pre-race piece fairly soon.

TGOHF

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

In the real world people don't pay 45 quid for a tshirt. Do we know whether the Labour mongs even paid out for theirs ?

audreyanne

Poppett said:

You cant dress it up Mike you are chasing money with taking the "mugs" money on betfair . I will see if I can put some more up for you to take . . The tories will not win and so you can dress it up anyway you can but you are better waiting to recover all you recent losses on something else

I spy a new pb Labour troll.

Innocent_Abroad said:

audreyanne said:

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election, whatever Nick Palmer claims when he doorsteps them in his Labour rosette. I spoke to an educated person last week who voted UKIP at the Euros and mentioned the GE to her. her reply was 'oh is there a General Election next year?'

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Good grief. If correct Labour has massive problems.

Does anyone feel like doing London analysis sometime? I think Labour will out-perform there but by how much, and will it be significant in terms of seats?

You might well find something if you go through yesterday's comments.

I'm more interested in how you manage to comment on two comments in one go. Most impressive!

Haha. You can click 'Quote' two or more times and then just make sure you place the cursor in the right place. Mind you, hand on heart I don't find the vanilla system great but I think it's a case of pb needs must. And at least this site has a comment section that is worth reading, unlike over at Guido.

Poppett

Fat Steve you are being taken in by it being a beauty contest !! Its NOT we are NOT America yet , Labour are in the lead Miliband or NOT . If you think dear Cameron can win get down to the bookies cos it wont happen with or without Miliband

dr_spyn

If Edward gives 2 pence to a beggar, how many donations does it take to collect enough to buy Harriet's £45 Right on Statement T shirt?

How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?

weejonnie

Anyone spot that last nights yougov poll showed a majority IN FAVOUR of leaving the EU? 43-37. No doubt the BBC and the Guardian will be leading with this result.

Morris_Dancer

F1: pre-race piece is now up:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/america-pre-race.html

Worth checking if you're thinking of betting as there are about four cars with penalties.

AlastairMeeks

4 minutes a week thinking about politics sounds about right for all of us.

Some, of course, talk about it rather more.

Alanbrooke

Innocent_Abroad said:

Alanbrooke said:

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

what a pity then Miliband and Balls have spent the last 4 years avoiding talking about anything substantive and leave us only bacon sandwiches and 2p donations on which we can judge their suitability for government.

Alan, we both know that whether the donation had been 2p, 20p, £2 or £20 it would have been wrong in some way. Thet's what the "Daily Mail" does to Labour leaders.

Mind you, for all either of us know, Ed Balls is cringing just as much as anyone else...

Hoisted on his petard imo.

He happily spent years wittering on about horses, pasties and toffs. he set his political agenda on trivia and now it's coming back to bite him. Basically all it shows is he has nothing worth saying.

dr_spyn

audreyanne said:

Poppett said:

You cant dress it up Mike you are chasing money with taking the "mugs" money on betfair . I will see if I can put some more up for you to take . . The tories will not win and so you can dress it up anyway you can but you are better waiting to recover all you recent losses on something else

I spy a new pb Labour troll.

Innocent_Abroad said:

audreyanne said:

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election, whatever Nick Palmer claims when he doorsteps them in his Labour rosette. I spoke to an educated person last week who voted UKIP at the Euros and mentioned the GE to her. her reply was 'oh is there a General Election next year?'

chestnut said:

Yougov:

Midlands/Wales (19.02.13): CON 28 LAB 48 UKIP 10
Midlands/Wales (today): CON 31 LAB 31 UKIP 25

Good grief. If correct Labour has massive problems.

Does anyone feel like doing London analysis sometime? I think Labour will out-perform there but by how much, and will it be significant in terms of seats?

You might well find something if you go through yesterday's comments.

I'm more interested in how you manage to comment on two comments in one go. Most impressive!

Haha. You can click 'Quote' two or more times and then just make sure you place the cursor in the right place. Mind you, hand on heart I don't find the vanilla system great but I think it's a case of pb needs must. And at least this site has a comment section that is worth reading, unlike over at Guido.

Read the comments section on Guido once in while, there are hidden gems worth mining, but also plenty of fool's gold, just like CiF.

TGOHF

Poppett said:

Fat Steve you are being taken in by it being a beauty contest !! Its NOT we are NOT America yet , Labour are in the lead Miliband or NOT . If you think dear Cameron can win get down to the bookies cos it wont happen with or without Miliband

How does your theory explain Gordon Brown losing heavily?

Weirdos don't become PM via a GE.

Millsy

weejonnie said:

Anyone spot that last nights yougov poll showed a majority IN FAVOUR of leaving the EU? 43-37. No doubt the BBC and the Guardian will be leading with this result.

Not surprising considering how big a story the £1.7bn charge was in the past week

another_richard

It would never have occurred to Harman etc to wear Tshirts made in a British factory which paid the 'living wage'.

Doesn't the Labour party condemn organisations which exploit the poor ?

I wonder what the profit margin is on a Tshirt sold at £45 which is made at £0.62ph.

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

Alanbrooke said:

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

what a pity then Miliband and Balls have spent the last 4 years avoiding talking about anything substantive and leave us only bacon sandwiches and 2p donations on which we can judge their suitability for government.

Alan, we both know that whether the donation had been 2p, 20p, £2 or £20 it would have been wrong in some way.

It seems no one is happy with Mr Miliband’s apparent good deed, as Manchester Police later tweeted that begging is a ‘crime under Vagrancy Act & we always urge public to donate to charities not beggars.’

https://metro.co.uk/2014/11/01/ed-miliband-criticized-from-every-direction-after-giving-homeless-woman-just-two-pence-in-manchester-4930490/

FluffyThoughts

Feckit:

Can someone tell me when I next need to make an appearance at 'Dirty Dicks'?

rephrase:

Can someone tell me when they wish for me not to make a reappearance at 'Dirty Dicks'...!

:somewhat-busy:

MarqueeMark

another_richard said:

It would never have occurred to Harman etc to wear Tshirts made in a British factory which paid the 'living wage'.

Doesn't the Labour party condemn organisations which exploit the poor ?

I wonder what the profit margin is on a Tshirt sold at £45 which is made at £0.62ph.

You would have thought that it might just cross their Leftish-minds to check that these garments weren't fitted with an arse-biting device.....

Looking at Harman and Miliband posing away, it did strike me that there are two tees in twats...and two twats in tees....

Poppett

TGHOF The point is Cameron couldn't even beat a hated brown .and ask a few tories if they think licking cleggs **** is a victory forget it

weejonnie

OldKingCole said:

chestnut said:

Implied national Vote from 2010:Now VI in Sample:

CON 30.29%
LAB 30.16%

Fourth time in ten that a minimal Tory lead has been implied. Labour are down 4-5 points in the last six weeks.

Apart from winning the PCC by-election (and that was muted), when did Labour have any good Press coverage in the last few weeks? As opposed to bad?

Most days on the BBC (or at least -ve coalition/UKIP reports/ comedy). It is not obvious but the BBC tend to mimic Labour press releases and political stances on various topics.

audreyanne

dr_spyn said:

If Edward gives 2 pence to a beggar, how many donations does it take to collect enough to buy Harriet's £45 Right on Statement T shirt?

How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?

Haha good one !

This is yet another dreadful moment for Miliband. All politicians have their moments with silly stunts (baseball caps and hugging hoodies) but Ed Miliband seems to make cock-up after cock-up on a weekly basis.

I'm beginning to think he is a worse Labour leader than Michael Foot. Cameron won't have a Falklands to crush Miliband but I still can't see Labour winning with him.

Scott_P

@racheljoyce: Great Sunday Telegraph cartoon! #Labour @Ed_Miliband @edballsmp #economy http://t.co/qzOe9BMUq1

Millsy

Today's YouGov poll has Miliband with his worst ever "doing well" scores and a plurality in all voting groups wanting to opt back in to the European Arrest Warrant.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf

MarqueeMark

Poppett said:

Fat Steve you are being taken in by it being a beauty contest !! Its NOT we are NOT America yet , Labour are in the lead Miliband or NOT . If you think dear Cameron can win get down to the bookies cos it wont happen with or without Miliband

Define "win". Staying PM is a win. Bed-blocking Labour from power is a win.

Poppett

this time next year Cameron will have gone and will be the man who couldn't beat brown or miliband

TGOHF

Poppett said:

TGHOF The point is Cameron couldn't even beat a hated brown .and ask a few tories if they think licking cleggs **** is a victory forget it

Yet Cam is PM and Brown isnt.

Poppett

Only because of clegg

Scott_P

Poppett said:

Cameron couldn't even beat a hated brown

Er, Cameron is PM and brown (sic) is not...

Maybe tim should restart his own blog; "Trolling for Beginners"?

FluffyThoughts

dr_spyn said:

Read the comments section on Guido once in while, there are hidden gems worth mining, but also plenty of fool's gold, just like CiF.

Agree, but SwissBob is now suissebob. Shyte moderation or a drunken Oirish [MODERATED]...?

:belated-welcome-to-the-kindergarten-SwissBob:

Poppett

A win IMO is an overall Maj

audreyanne

Gadfly said:

audreyanne said:

Financier said:

PBers a bit obsessive?

He ( J.Messina) told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817309/How-long-win-Election-Just-104-minutes-says-JAMES-FORSYTH.html

And this is partly why I tried to persuade the obdurate Jonathan that we are still mid-term. Those 4 minutes a week are about politics. Most people have no conception whatsoever about a General Election,

I gave this some thought yesterday and have concluded that I agree with you that we are still mid-term. I can see an analogy with pregnancy and childbirth ;-)

Good analogy! I'm going to borrow that if I may.

Scott_P

@mattholehouse: Now the SNP attack Miliband for his all-Scottish food bank donation http://t.co/fbZaVrltFX

Innocent_Abroad

audreyanne said:

dr_spyn said:

If Edward gives 2 pence to a beggar, how many donations does it take to collect enough to buy Harriet's £45 Right on Statement T shirt?

How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?

Haha good one !

This is yet another dreadful moment for Miliband. All politicians have their moments with silly stunts (baseball caps and hugging hoodies) but Ed Miliband seems to make cock-up after cock-up on a weekly basis.

I'm beginning to think he is a worse Labour leader than Michael Foot. Cameron won't have a Falklands to crush Miliband but I still can't see Labour winning with him.

Beginning to think? We had that discussion weeks ago!

Foot had principles, no Tory has ever denied him that. And a donkey jacket, too, for this time of year. (In his time it was quite cool in November, of course, rather than California-on-Thames...)

Poppett

You morons do what you do on twitter you say TROLL wow just because someone doesn't agree the person is a troll . You are a sad lot but more than that boring !!

Sean_F

Poppett said:

Fat Steve you are being taken in by it being a beauty contest !! Its NOT we are NOT America yet , Labour are in the lead Miliband or NOT . If you think dear Cameron can win get down to the bookies cos it wont happen with or without Miliband

Effectively, the parties are level-pegging. Yougov gives Labour an average 0.8% lead this week. Com Res, Populus, Lord Ashcroft, Opinium have a tie. The Scottish polling is horrendous. That's not a good position for the Opposition.

malcolmg

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

They are rich Tories, why would they care about anyone, they don't need to be in touch.

Poppett

Sean Labour should be 10 points clear - I agree

SimonStClare

Poppett said:

You morons do what you do on twitter you say TROLL wow just because someone doesn't agree the person is a troll . You are a sad lot but more than that boring !!

For someone who earlier claimed to have “left Labour and joined the Greens” – I’m sorry to say your performance is pretty unconvincing.

rottenborough

Morning all,

Nicely spotted Mike. It's certainly calmed my nerves a little, as I have money on a Tory win in Rochester. Interesting to note that 26% of UKIP IV is from Lab's 2010. If Lab don't mount any kind of GOTV operation will all these people actually vote on the day, especially if a cold, wet November day with darkness falling very early.

dr_spyn

Caring Labour politicians part 1.

Ed gives 2p to a beggar.
Harriet and the T shirt stunt.

If only it had been Teresa May wearing the T shirt, and Dave giving to that non registered for tax and voting purposes beggar.

Labour need to get a grip of their PR team, but it would need more than the 72.5 hours (that the t shirt maker needs to earn) to spell out fcuk up to their hapless leadership team.

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

They are rich Tories, why would they care about anyone, they don't need to be in touch.

Whereas rich Nats are ?

Gadfly

Poppett said:

You morons do what you do on twitter you say TROLL wow just because someone doesn't agree the person is a troll . You are a sad lot but more than that boring !!

Is English your first language?

dr_spyn

Gadfly said:

Poppett said:

You morons do what you do on twitter you say TROLL wow just because someone doesn't agree the person is a troll . You are a sad lot but more than that boring !!

Is English your first language?

Nothing like winning hearts and minds over on PB for the Labour Party. Epic Fail.

Blofelds_Cat

malcolmg said:

Poppett said:

People on here can take the p*** out of Miliband because that's what sheep do on twitter -Agree . In the real world people don't care that Guildo fawkes might put a cartoon up about bacon sandwiches or something .people are too worried about rent/ bill / nhs . shame you lot have become out of touch just like the Westminster lot !

They are rich Tories, why would they care about anyone, they don't need to be in touch.

I think I've just used up my 4 minutes for this week - Poppett joined by MalcolmG

Scott_P

Gadfly said:

Is English your first language?

Educated to A* standard under Ed Balls...

anotherDave

Eu referendum supplementary question from YouGov.

Leave EU: 43%
stay in: 37%

p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n965i9mzb8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-311014.pdf

rottenborough

Innocent_Abroad said:

audreyanne said:

dr_spyn said:

If Edward gives 2 pence to a beggar, how many donations does it take to collect enough to buy Harriet's £45 Right on Statement T shirt?

How many days does it take a textile worker to earn enough to buy the same shirt?

Haha good one !

This is yet another dreadful moment for Miliband. All politicians have their moments with silly stunts (baseball caps and hugging hoodies) but Ed Miliband seems to make cock-up after cock-up on a weekly basis.

I'm beginning to think he is a worse Labour leader than Michael Foot. Cameron won't have a Falklands to crush Miliband but I still can't see Labour winning with him.

Beginning to think? We had that discussion weeks ago!

Foot had principles, no Tory has ever denied him that. And a donkey jacket, too, for this time of year. (In his time it was quite cool in November, of course, rather than California-on-Thames...)

The donkey jacket is a political myth. See, as one example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7361078/Michael-Foot-and-the-donkey-jacket-that-wasnt.html

Paul_Mid_Beds

Not this old canard again.

The reason most of those people didn't vote in 2010 was because there was no party putting forward policies worth voting for, not because they couldn't be bothered.

Clearly the prospect that the decline in voter turnout since 1992 was due to voters taking a positive decision to abstain due to the policies of the big three rather than apathy really frightens the establishment.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Meanwhile, this appears to be what the Tory high command spends political donations on:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817318/Heard-one-Tory-Summit-beat-UKIP-MPs-boozed-3am-told-filthy-jokes-enraged-Osborne-picture.html

A rotten rotten establishment.