politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South

AndyJS said:

Crutched Friars is my favourite London street name. Someone's probably already mentioned it.

There's an outlying area of London Borough of Bromley called Pratt's Bottom.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To become Directly Elected Dictator of the United Kingdom, I said I needed first to be a ruler of a City State.

Thanks George & Nick for helping me to my ultimate destiny.

I want to be Minister-Emperor of the Commonwealth of All English-speaking States and Peoples

How about making you Viceroy of all English speaking Nations?

I think I have seniority - I was four years old when Mrs T ascended the UK throne

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On the road from Sheffield to Rotherham.

There's a Dead Man's Hole Lane.

Really there is.

But this is my favourite street name in London.

I've had so much fun here, in this tight Back Passage

https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/32/37857281_d80cc0fd95.jpg

From my days in BT they used to sell a bell called a 6 inch trembler. Every so often somebody would want one installed in their back passage.

http://www.britishtelephones.com/bell19a.htm

This sounds like the plot of "Confessions of a BT Engineer"

It won't be entirely fair, because Labour would still lack a sense of direction under any leader right now. But Ed is going to be one hell of a fall guy come next May....

When you think of the bile that Labour has invested in painting Nick Clegg as a pantomime villain. Only to discover their guy is held in even worse regard.

Hur hur hur.....

MikeK said:

Anyone got more gen on this?

FallenAngel retweeted
❤️Israel❤️ ‏@I_LUV_ISRAEL 15m15 minutes ago
Egypt Army Enters Gaza, Destroys Homes Making Buffer-Zone & World is Silent http://www.israelandstuff.com/egypt-army-enters-gaza-destroys-homes-making-buffer-zone-world-is-silent#.VFVRhC_Og_R.twitter …

Yet I wonder why it hasn't made the main news channels?

It was covered by the BBC News Channel the other day

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29825889

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chortle

David Jack ‏@DJack_Journo

Ed Miliband's rating is his worst ever: 18% say he's doing well, 73% badly -55 net, below Clegg at -54, Cameron -14. SundayTimes/YouGov

Are those the worst ever ratings for a Labour leader?

The debate on drugs this week I watched with keen interest.Every MP who spoke supported the need to look to change and it was only the Labour front bench who defended the status quo and Alan Johnson confirmed Labour's stupidity on the issue.The Labour party's position is- we are not prepared to consider evidence.As a test of evidence-based policy,both Lab and Con fail.Labour especially,has its head up its anus.It's become one of those things no-one is even allowed to talk about
Lots of green gold,lots of tax revenues and bad news for pharma and alcohol.The times they are a changing everywhere except the UK.The polls keep saying the UK public are ready to change and the UK could be a model of regulation.
Maybe private investors drive policy.People can't if governments refuse to even consider evidence including systemic racism.The war on drugs is a war on black people.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/01/legal-marijuanas-market-value-could-soar-by-2020.aspx#.VFVNwXVUif8.twitter

MikeK said:

Ah, found it. Hidden away on the back page in smallest type possible for a potential big story:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29825889

I wonder what the reaction would have been if Israel had suddenly done this? OK I know!

Jordan occupied the West Bank for 18 years!

dr_spyn said:

RNAS Tern was a airbase used by The Navy on Orkney, close to the village of Twatt.

Unity Valkeyrie Mitford was conceived in the town of Swastika, Canada.

MikeK said:

audreyanne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You know that feminist t shirt Dave didn't wear, turns out it was a good choice

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1Yt-Q3CQAA29XP.jpg

It has been mentioned here a few times before, but Cameron is a lucky politician. Whether you believe it is pure chance or he makes his own is moot because it is perhaps another way of saying that he is a great politician.

Yet another appalling headline for Miliband.

Cammo is a shit politician. The reason he looks good is in comparison with even shittier politicians, namely Cleggover and DeadED.
Nigal stands out as a beacon of light compared with all the above.

Well, his nose does.....

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago

National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

LAB - 32% (=)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 7% (=)
GRN - 6% (-1)

Wait until the voters read about what a tight fisted bastard Ed Miliband is .
Giving 2 p to a beggar is worse than giving nothing.

There's talk that in tonight's YouGov, Miliband's ratings are worse than Clegg's ratings.

Should that prove to be the case, then there's every chance that Labour's showing will also be down.
Does this mean I can go to bed tonight dreaming of predominantly blue bar charts, accompanied by optimistic, Fisheresque-type projections of the Tories' prospects? In short TSE, are YOU on the early morning shift?

I am still officially on holiday.

But the VI has Lab ahead

LAB - 32% (=)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 7% (=)
GRN - 6% (-1)

The big news of the day for me is that Labour have managed to throw into question, however slightly, one of their prospective nailed-on gains at the general election, by selecting for Bradford East (LD maj 365) the person who contrived to lose Bradford West to Galloway in the 2011 by-election.

audreyanne said:

AndyJS said:

suggests the party could win up to 10 seats in the county in optimal conditions.

By elections, in other words.

Depends how you measure it, Audrey/Andy.

At a General Election, I have by my reckoning six Kent seats down as being more UKIP friendly than Rochester. They are Faversham, Gravesham, Folkestone, Sittingbourne, and the two Thanets.

Naturally if the Conservatives decided to throw the kitchen sink at these constituencies, I'd reassess the figure at more like half a dozen.

dr_spyn said:

HurstLlama said:

AndyJS said:

Crutched Friars is my favourite London street name. Someone's probably already mentioned it.

Mr. JS, why so? The name is a left over from a religious house that once stood on or near the site. This House belonged to a Branch of the Betheren of the Cross who always carried with them a staff depicting the Crucifixion. From that staff of the cross we get through the wonders of English, and no doubt cockney wit, Crutched Friars.

As an aside it is remarkable just how many religious houses (i.e. monasteries and nunneries as well as parish churches) existed in medieval London, which was not itself a big place. I would guess that including the churchyards they probably took up close to 30% of the space.

Almost as many nuns as whores...

Oh, I doubt that Mr. Spyn. Even in early medieval times when the city authorities were jolly keen on chasing prostitution from the city (see Cock Lane in Smithfield and the Bishop of Winchesters' geese in Southwark) I doubt that the number of nuns exceeded the number of ladies of negotiable virtue in the City of London.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, riddle me this.

Ed himself is polling below Clegg, yet Labour are polling something of the region of 4 times as much as the LDs in % terms.

Labour voters are very forgiving of the failings of their leaders.

Or have very low expectations.

Callaghan. Foot. Kinnock. Blair. Brown. Miliband. Not exactly a stellar line up is it?

Peter_the_Punter said:

audreyanne said:

AndyJS said:

suggests the party could win up to 10 seats in the county in optimal conditions.

By elections, in other words.

Depends how you measure it, Audrey/Andy.

At a General Election, I have by my reckoning six Kent seats down as being more UKIP friendly than Rochester. They are Faversham, Gravesham, Folkestone, Sittingbourne, and the two Thanets.

Naturally if the Conservatives decided to throw the kitchen sink at these constituencies, I'd reassess the figure at more like half a dozen.

Yes I overstated things a bit by saying 10. I think I'll check the class statistics for each Kent seat as an exercise.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm shocked to learn that Britain First are backing UKIP

Far right groups clash with anti-fascists in Rochester ahead of by-election

Leaders of BNP splinter group Britain First say they have "almost everything" in common with Ukip and are backing Mark Reckless "one hundred per cent"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11203651/Far-right-groups-clash-with-anti-fascists-in-Rochester-ahead-of-by-election.html

Then why do they have a candidate running against him?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

dr_spyn said:

RNAS Tern was a airbase used by The Navy on Orkney, close to the village of Twatt.

Unity Valkeyrie Mitford was conceived in the town of Swastika, Canada.

But the Swastika is a sacred emblem stolen and sullied by the Nazis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swastika

I've got an old copy of Rudyard Kipling's "Kim" somewhere. There's a swastika and an elephant on the cover.

MarqueeMark said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, riddle me this.

Ed himself is polling below Clegg, yet Labour are polling something of the region of 4 times as much as the LDs in % terms.

Labour voters are very forgiving of the failings of their leaders.

Or have very low expectations.

Callaghan. Foot. Kinnock. Blair. Brown. Miliband. Not exactly a stellar line up is it?

I don't like Blair, but he was apparently an excellent leader given his electoral successes. If he was less than stellar, either they wouldn't have won, or wouldn't have won so big at least, or on multiple occasions, no matter how weak the opposition. As Cameron may end up proving (thanks to UKIP), it may be possible to lose to a terrible opposition.

ETA: While temporarily basking in the glow of congratulations for a correct prediction, I should really try to come up with something faux-profound to put across and actually have it taken seriously. Hmm, I've got nothing yet, but give me a moment.

I live in Kent and without doubt Ukip are strong around here (Ashford). My worry as a Conservative is not quite so much that there will be a huge fall off to Ukip but that the Labour vote will switch to them in big numbers. It seems to me almost impossible to call at the moment. In addition my lot are stupid enough to try and overthrow David Cameron post Rochester. To get rid of him is to lose a guy who consistently out polls his Party. But to challenge him but not get rid of him is also to weaken him greatly. There is no plus side to what The David Davis's of this world are plotting to do.

Even among Labour voters just half think Ed Miliband is doing well, while 44% say he is doing badly. By contrast, Cameron enjoys the backing of 97% of Conservative voters and Clegg is supported by 71% of Lib Dems.

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

O/T:

A good example of the country going to the dogs is the fact that the first version of the Casualty theme music from 1986 was and is by far the best. Why they don't use it today beats me:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXMl-IMHgxQ

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, riddle me this.

Ed himself is polling below Clegg, yet Labour are polling something of the region of 4 times as much as the LDs in % terms.

Labour voters are very forgiving of the failings of their leaders.

Or have very low expectations.

Callaghan. Foot. Kinnock. Blair. Brown. Miliband. Not exactly a stellar line up is it?

I don't like Blair, but he was apparently an excellent leader given his electoral successes. If he was less than stellar, either they wouldn't have won, or wouldn't have won so big at least, or on multiple occasions, no matter how weak the opposition. As Cameron may end up proving (thanks to UKIP), it may be possible to lose to a terrible opposition.

ETA: While temporarily basking in the glow of congratulations for a correct prediction, I should really try to come up with something faux-profound to put across and actually have it taken seriously. Hmm, I've got nothing yet, but give me a moment.

Labour only seem to dislike their leaders that win and form governments (Blair, Wilson,MacDonald) apart from Atlee. They seem to be more neutral about Brown and Callaghan, who were PMs but election losers.

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

Indeed. Note the original vertical (non-NSDAP) orientation.

Mind you, I seem to recall that these had to be painted out with washable paint, or covered in paper discs, for the delivery flights, were they not?

And the Finns had to change to their modern white/blue/white roundel for their planes and military vehicles in 1944/45 when they lost the Continuation War.

I seem to recall the Latvians, across the Baltic, had the same national roundel but with red swastikas.

SimonStClare said:

Mind boggles, 45 quid for Harman's stupid feminist T-shirt - one born every minute...!

The Harpreson household has plenty of dosh and is as posh as Cameron / Obsborne. The sort of people who wont miss £50 here or there.

kle4 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, riddle me this.

Ed himself is polling below Clegg, yet Labour are polling something of the region of 4 times as much as the LDs in % terms.

Labour voters are very forgiving of the failings of their leaders.

Or have very low expectations.

Callaghan. Foot. Kinnock. Blair. Brown. Miliband. Not exactly a stellar line up is it?

I don't like Blair, but he was apparently an excellent leader given his electoral successes. If he was less than stellar, either they wouldn't have won, or wouldn't have won so big at least, or on multiple occasions, no matter how weak the opposition. As Cameron may end up proving (thanks to UKIP), it may be possible to lose to a terrible opposition.

ETA: While temporarily basking in the glow of congratulations for a correct prediction, I should really try to come up with something faux-profound to put across and actually have it taken seriously. Hmm, I've got nothing yet, but give me a moment.

Congratulations on your excellent prediction, Kle4. You must tell us later how you did it. Some may suspect you used the famous Price Is Right strategy, but I will have no such nonsense. I am sure it was psephological skill.

If only. I just figured Labour would continue to do very well in a heartland despite all the recent troubles there, and assumed UKIP could probably count on gaining around half the votes which the other parties who stood last time got, plus all the LD vote share (not the same voters, necessarily, but an equivalent amount), though as it is the Tories did considerably better than I expected. And given Labour got 51% last time, and came even closer to it going to the second round this time, and who knows what would have happened to the end result with the second preferences, and I may have cut things a little finer than I had anticipated.

Rochester will be the true test of my 'methods'.

So by how much do you reckon the kickboxer is going to win in Rochester?

Carnyx said:

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

Indeed. Note the original vertical (non-NSDAP) orientation.

Mind you, I seem to recall that these had to be painted out with washable paint, or covered in paper discs, for the delivery flights, were they not?

And the Finns had to change to their modern white/blue/white roundel for their planes and military vehicles in 1944/45 when they lost the Continuation War.

I seem to recall the Latvians, across the Baltic, had the same national roundel but with red swastikas.

How the RAF delivered those Blenheims.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/41/a3873341.shtml

You are right re the delivery, bu there problems with the whitewash.

Everyone, it seems, loves the Tower of London poppy memorial.

Except Jonathan Jones, the Guardian's art critic, who views it as a pro-UKIP installation.

dr_spyn said:

Carnyx said:

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

dr_spyn said:

Finnish Air Force Blenheims were seen at RAF Bicester with their Blue Swastikas in early 1940. http://www.blhs.org.uk/uploads/Military/RAF BICESTER CHRONOLOGY( illust).pdf

Indeed. Note the original vertical (non-NSDAP) orientation.

Mind you, I seem to recall that these had to be painted out with washable paint, or covered in paper discs, for the delivery flights, were they not?

And the Finns had to change to their modern white/blue/white roundel for their planes and military vehicles in 1944/45 when they lost the Continuation War.

I seem to recall the Latvians, across the Baltic, had the same national roundel but with red swastikas.

How the RAF delivered those Blenheims.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/41/a3873341.shtml

You are right re the delivery, bu there problems with the whitewash.

Oh good, thanks, had not seen that, much appreciated.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SimonStClare said:

Mind boggles, 45 quid for Harman's stupid feminist T-shirt - one born every minute...!

The Harpreson household has plenty of dosh and is as posh as Cameron / Obsborne. The sort of people who wont miss £50 here or there.

I suspect the politicos were given them as freebies.

peterbuss --

Labour are seeking to embarrass the tories by ensuring Reckless is elected. Reckless as well as the incumbent is essentially a tory, albeit selfserving, not an your usual ting tong hating kipper. The circumstances of his defection make it a plausible strategy as the tory vote is clearly going to be split.

Its a dubious strategy, both morally and politically, but where there is no sense there is no feeling as they say.

Flightpath said:

peterbuss --

Labour are seeking to embarrass the tories by ensuring Reckless is elected. Reckless as well as the incumbent is essentially a tory, albeit selfserving, not an your usual ting tong hating kipper. The circumstances of his defection make it a plausible strategy as the tory vote is clearly going to be split.

Its a dubious strategy, both morally and politically, but where there is no sense there is no feeling as they say.

You do release it was that bastion of Kippery, the BBC that invented the character "Ting Tong"?

http://littlebritain.wikia.com/wiki/Dudley_and_Ting_Tong

I suggest this will ensure the closure of PB,and many others.Terrible move from May.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11202290/Sharia-law-or-gay-marriage-critics-would-be-branded-extremists-under-Tory-plans-atheists-and-Christians-warn.html

Luckyguy1983 said:

Socrates said:

volcanopete said:

I suggest this will ensure the closure of PB,and many others.Terrible move from May.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11202290/Sharia-law-or-gay-marriage-critics-would-be-branded-extremists-under-Tory-plans-atheists-and-Christians-warn.html

May is unbelievably useless. She's probably rolling this out now to distract from the Home Office being sued by the cleric who was allegedly conducting sham marriages before trial collapsed due to UKBA incompetence.

No, they are doing it to ban free speech. It is a worldwide legislative trend. Cameron has already made a chilling speech to the UN wherein he argued that those who question the official line on 9 11 must not be allowed to air their views. Expect similar legislation if Labour get in.

Our UK parliament is bringing this forward, so just as well we have the European Court to protect our right to free speech!

Socrates said:

It's in the Sun, so therefore its not working class culture? That's your argument?

NickPalmer said:

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

@Socrates - can you share with us what white working class culture is in England and what bits of it Labour hates?

They hold in contempt virtually all of it. The working men's clubs, the affection towards our our armed forces, the smoking and drinking pub culture, the crude jokes, the monarchism, the flag-waving patriotism, scouting, the lad's magazines, the desire to move up in the world, the tabloid-reading, etc etc.

You're creating a straw man here. You seem to see the WWC as essentially the Sun (with the odd exception of scouting). It's a lot more diverse than that, which is probably why the Sun's readership has declined so sharply, and the Labour Party is too. You get a few snooty types in all parties, but it's not general.

I thought he was saying that not all the WWC's views will match that of the Sun. Perhaps most do, but not all.