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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    Socrates said:

    It's in the Sun, so therefore its not working class culture? That's your argument?

    Its obvious the modern. Labour party hates the WWC. That's why they want to dilute them with immigration and discriminate against them in the employment market. There's no other sensible reason for bringing over arranged brides from Bangladesh and then saying they deserve a job more than a local white woman.

    Socrates said:

    @Socrates - can you share with us what white working class culture is in England and what bits of it Labour hates?

    They hold in contempt virtually all of it. The working men's clubs, the affection towards our our armed forces, the smoking and drinking pub culture, the crude jokes, the monarchism, the flag-waving patriotism, scouting, the lad's magazines, the desire to move up in the world, the tabloid-reading, etc etc.
    You're creating a straw man here. You seem to see the WWC as essentially the Sun (with the odd exception of scouting). It's a lot more diverse than that, which is probably why the Sun's readership has declined so sharply, and the Labour Party is too. You get a few snooty types in all parties, but it's not general.



    Don't you think they just hate the English? Marxism is about sectional class interest. The idea of any national characteristic or loyalty is anathema to a Marxist.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    MikeK said:
    " UKIP has not yet fielded a candidate to challenge the longevity of the Tories in Gainsborough. But now it’s time for the people of Gainsborough have a real say .. and that is surely not through a political elite of professional politicians like Sir Edward Leigh, ..

    Unless of course, like some of his recent colleagues, he crosses the floor! "

    maj 10.5k in 2010
    but 13k LD and 7k Lab to squeeze


    I wonder how much of this is going on..

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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    May is unbelievably useless. She's probably rolling this out now to distract from the Home Office being sued by the cleric who was allegedly conducting sham marriages before trial collapsed due to UKBA incompetence.

    No, they are doing it to ban free speech. It is a worldwide legislative trend. Cameron has already made a chilling speech to the UN wherein he argued that those who question the official line on 9 11 must not be allowed to air their views. Expect similar legislation if Labour get in.

    Our UK parliament is bringing this forward, so just as well we have the European Court to protect our right to free speech!

    Nice try but wrong:

    Article 10 (of the ECHR) is a qualified right and as such the right to freedom of expression may be limited. Article 10 provides that the exercise of this freedom “since it carries with it duties and responsibilities” may be limited as long as the limitation:

    is prescribed by law;
    is necessary and proportionate; and
    pursues a legitimate aim, namely:

    o the interests of national security, territorial integrity or public safety;

    o the prevention of disorder or crime;

    o the protection of health or morals;

    o the protection of the reputation or rights of others;

    o preventing the disclosure of information received in confidence; or

    o maintaining the authority and impartiality of the judiciary.


    https://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/human-rights/what-are-human-rights/human-rights-act/article-10-freedom-expression

    As long as the Home Office don't get too carried away with themselves the ECHR will not protect you one iota
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358

    Socrates said:

    May is unbelievably useless. She's probably rolling this out now to distract from the Home Office being sued by the cleric who was allegedly conducting sham marriages before trial collapsed due to UKBA incompetence.

    No, they are doing it to ban free speech. It is a worldwide legislative trend. Cameron has already made a chilling speech to the UN wherein he argued that those who question the official line on 9 11 must not be allowed to air their views. Expect similar legislation if Labour get in.

    That there is in general political consensus on such trends, even if there are differences on specifics, is one of the truly disappointing and aggravating developments we currently face, among many others. Anything to look 'tough', and that's the best case scenario, given the sorts of things these measures could permit.

    And on that happy note, good night.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:

    Islam will only go through an Enlightenment when it is properly intellectually challenged in public debate...

    You miss out the critical clause.

    "by Muslims"...
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    Socrates said:

    Islam will only go through an Enlightenment when it is properly intellectually challenged in public debate. But most of the idiots in the establishment not only run scared of doing this, they silence those that do - by screaming racism and trying ostracism if they can, or by force of law if necessary. Just look at the reaction you get if you mention the entirely accurate historical fact (which Muslims acknowledge) that Mohammed had sex with a little kid.

    The Islam practised by the Alawites in Syria appears to be just the enlightened version you describe. Which makes me wonder why you seem so insistent the Alawite controlled regime should make way for another Sharia basket case.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358

    Socrates said:

    It's in the Sun, so therefore its not working class culture? That's your argument?

    Its obvious the modern. Labour party hates the WWC. That's why they want to dilute them with immigration and discriminate against them in the employment market. There's no other sensible reason for bringing over arranged brides from Bangladesh and then saying they deserve a job more than a local white woman.

    Socrates said:

    @Socrates - can you share with us what white working class culture is in England and what bits of it Labour hates?

    They hold in contempt virtually all of it. The working men's clubs, the affection towards our our armed forces, the smoking and drinking pub culture, the crude jokes, the monarchism, the flag-waving patriotism, scouting, the lad's magazines, the desire to move up in the world, the tabloid-reading, etc etc.
    You're creating a straw man here. You seem to see the WWC as essentially the Sun (with the odd exception of scouting). It's a lot more diverse than that, which is probably why the Sun's readership has declined so sharply, and the Labour Party is too. You get a few snooty types in all parties, but it's not general.



    Don't you think they just hate the English? Marxism is about sectional class interest. The idea of any national characteristic or loyalty is anathema to a Marxist.
    Must be why genuine marxists are so thin on the ground then. Nationalism has been a dominant or among the dominant forces for many centuries now, and even in theoretically marxist countries it seems they ended up defaulting to nationalist themes as well in the end.
    shiney2 said:

    MikeK said:

    But now it’s time for the people of Gainsborough have a real say .. and that is surely not through a political elite of professional politicians like Sir Edward Leigh, ..

    Unless of course, like some of his recent colleagues, he crosses the floor! "

    Indeed. Honestly, I want UKIP to do well, but the idea they are not currently or will be chock full of professional politicians, is frankly laughable, and given their acceptance of defectors who when they were in other parties were, if not all as bad as, say, Cameron, clearly the wrong type, demonstrates presumably that what defines a professional politician is lack of UKIP affiliation apparently.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2014
    @kle4

    "But now it’s time for the people of Gainsborough have a real say .. and that is surely not through a political elite of professional politicians like Sir Edward Leigh, ..

    Unless of course, like some of his recent colleagues, he crosses the floor! "



    I think that'sa minor thing in comparison to the avalanche effect on Cam.

    It will only take one or two more before next May to fill the media schedule and derail any hope Cam has of next primeminister.
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    shiney2 said:

    @kle4

    "But now it’s time for the people of Gainsborough have a real say .. and that is surely not through a political elite of professional politicians like Sir Edward Leigh, ..

    Unless of course, like some of his recent colleagues, he crosses the floor! "



    I think that'sa minor thing in comparison to the avalanche effect on Cam.

    It will only take one or two more before next May to fill the media schedule and derail any hope Cam has of next primeminister.

    It is not next May that is the deadline. Parliament will be dissolved at the end of March, 11 days after George Osborne's budget. That is the big political event (where no doubt the Chancellor will offer unicorns for all, predicated on his return to office) that must be derailed.

    But that is not the deadline either, because a backbencher defecting next year will simply be crossing the floor, not triggering a by-election: there'd not be time for one before the dissolution of Parliament. A defection next year by someone barely known outside his own kitchen would not trouble the headline-writers for more than a day.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    Iain Martin hits the nail on the head, incredible that Unite seem hell bent on causing more damage to the Scottish labour party than they managed during the Falkirk/Lab/Unite bust up. And as I posted a couple of days ago, none of them is going to come out of this well if they succeed with their campaign.
    Scott_P said:

    Even now, as Labour sups in the last-chance saloon ahead of Nationalist potential Armageddon, the trade union Unite is setting about the lunatic task of blocking Mr Murphy – the party’s only hope – for the crime of being electable.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11202664/Milibands-blunder-to-think-Scotland-was-in-the-bag.html
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397
    kle4 said:

    Socrates said:

    It's in the Sun, so therefore its not working class culture? That's your argument?

    Socrates said:

    @Socrates - can you share with us what white working class culture is in England and what bits of it Labour hates?

    They hold in contempt virtually all of it. The working men's clubs, the affection towards our our armed forces, the smoking and drinking pub culture, the crude jokes, the monarchism, the flag-waving patriotism, scouting, the lad's magazines, the desire to move up in the world, the tabloid-reading, etc etc.
    You're creating a straw man here. You seem to see the WWC as essentially the Sun (with the odd exception of scouting). It's a lot more diverse than that, which is probably why the Sun's readership has declined so sharply, and the Labour Party is too. You get a few snooty types in all parties, but it's not general.



    I thought he was saying that not all the WWC's views will match that of the Sun. Perhaps most do, but not all.
    That's right - thanks for clarifying for Socrates. I wouldn't even say "most". The Sun reflects a dwindling subsection of the WWC, hence its dwindling circulation. It hasn't been replaced by any other dominant culture - the WWC has simply splintered across many types of people who defy simple summary of the kind the Socrates was suggesting. Marx would have been taken aback too, if that's any consolation - it's actually a triumph of individualism.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    @Danny I am no fan of the Labour party, North or South of the border, but I really rate this extremely able and underestimated politician. It still continues to amaze me just how detached the rest of the Labour party has become to Scottish politics despite the prolonged Indy Referendum campaign over recent years. Jim Murphy is not only the most astute and media savvy Scottish Labour politician by far up here, he has also been one of the most under used assets in the Shadow Labour Cabinet over the last four years due to Miliband's poor judgement and weakness when it comes to standing up to Unite.

    I was mocked by the Nats on here when I suggested that the SNP underestimated Jim Murphy at their peril when Gordon Brown made him Scottish Secretary under the last Labour Government. I was proved right when Murphy not only took on Salmond very effectively in the news up here, but he also then oversaw that huge Labour victory at the last GE in Scotland that also saw them winning back the two seats they lost to the SNP and Libdems. He may not have been on your TV screens down South regularly, but he was a very visible presence up here on Scottish TV in our debates. And he was again almost daily in the news up here in the run up to the Indy Referendum with his 100 streets campaign. One of the best Indy debates was a BBC Any Questions in Aberdeen just before the vote, and the Better Together team of Murphy and Ruth Davidson was a master class in how its done. They were the team that should have been used far more often during the latter stages of the campaign.

    Just look at Murphy's performance in his own seat too, its also worth noting that Miliband and Balls decided not to utilise either Murphy or Dougie Alexander in the run up to the Holyrood election in 2011. And look how that turned out for Scottish Labour, I remember commenting on the fact that they were both invisible during that campaign on here. Murphy entering Holyrood wouldn't only be bad news for the SNP under Sturgeon, it would also be bad news for the Libdems and us Scots Tories as well!

    You claim that this "hyping up of Jim "Funereal" Murphy is another example of how detached the Westminster bubble is from reality". I think its the other way around, and its Westminster Labour underestimating their own 'John Major' in much the same way the polls did the back in 1992 in the run up to the GE. And worse, they might even sit back and let Unite undermine and try to destroy the campaign of by far the best candidate while further damaging the whole Labour party brand along the way.
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    SNIP
    I swear, this hyping up of Jim "Funereal" Murphy is another example of how detached the Westminster bubble is from reality. What evidence is there that he would be some unstoppable big hit with the public?

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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    @djl
    " A defection next year by someone barely known outside his own kitchen would not trouble the headline-writers for more than a day."

    I didn't mention a deadline but if you want one then clearly to impact the media schedule between end of Rochester&Strood and the GE, resignation(s) will need to fit. One in lateNov might mean the seat is only contestable during Jan/Feb15.

    Maybe the media will notice or maybe they will take your view.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,335
    Socrates said:

    May is unbelievably useless. She's probably rolling this out now to distract from the Home Office being sued by the cleric who was allegedly conducting sham marriages before trial collapsed due to UKBA incompetence.

    I love the idea that people who aren't breaking any laws need to be prevented from spreading "hate". This kind of rubbish shows why I was right to leave the Conservative Party.

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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    So I have to decide, do I want to be ultimate ruler of Sheffield or Manchester.

    George Osborne to announce 'home rule' for Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds

    George Osborne and Nick Clegg have agreed to give “London style” self-rule to Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester, with details expected to be announced in the Autumn Statement next month

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11203407/George-Osborne-to-announce-home-rule-for-Manchester-Sheffield-and-Leeds.html

    The Westminster response to calls for English Votes for English Laws or an English parliament is to break up the very nation of England. I do wish London would just go and f-ing do one to be honest. Become its own non-English city state enclave and leave the real England alone to be England.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    If you are talking about the power of common sense being paramount, then I suggest you start taking notice of the consistent polling where the voters keep telling us that they don't rate Ed Miliband as a Leader.

    The next election will probably be determined by the cost of living issue.The Tory press will denigrate MMiliband and praise Cameron but in the end the voter decides.The Power of common sense is paramount and I can't see Cameron as the next Prime Minister.Farage is irrelevant and so is Clegg.Miliband may do well in the televised debates but either way he seems to be the most likely next occupant of number 10.

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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Even now, as Labour sups in the last-chance saloon ahead of Nationalist potential Armageddon, the trade union Unite is setting about the lunatic task of blocking Mr Murphy – the party’s only hope – for the crime of being electable.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11202664/Milibands-blunder-to-think-Scotland-was-in-the-bag.html
    I swear, this hyping up of Jim "Funereal" Murphy is another example of how detached the Westminster bubble is from reality. What evidence is there that he would be some unstoppable big hit with the public?

    Indeed.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    edited November 2014
    Twitter
    Scotsman ‏@TheScotsman 34m34 minutes ago
    Front page of this week's @scotonsunday. 'Murphy: Labour is for prosperous and poor': http://bit.ly/1qizuNn

    The Scotsman - Euan McColm: Jim Murphy right to apologise
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2014

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Even now, as Labour sups in the last-chance saloon ahead of Nationalist potential Armageddon, the trade union Unite is setting about the lunatic task of blocking Mr Murphy – the party’s only hope – for the crime of being electable.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11202664/Milibands-blunder-to-think-Scotland-was-in-the-bag.html
    I swear, this hyping up of Jim "Funereal" Murphy is another example of how detached the Westminster bubble is from reality. What evidence is there that he would be some unstoppable big hit with the public?
    Indeed.


    Mr Murphy passes the Gerald Ford test.

    Gives him a head start..
This discussion has been closed.