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Brand continues to dominate the front pages – politicalbetting.com

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  • Mr. Gezou, I too have recently seen an interesting video on the US and pharmaceutical practices:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px_6ta4bMw8
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    EDINBURGH TRAM INQUIRY KLAXON

    Published at 11am. 9 years and £11 million later.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    TOPPING said:

    Your kidding, right? What fun would it be only to read articles from Railway Modeller. Or does it surprise you that people, not you obvs, read other points of view.
    I read other points of view. I don't subject myself to frequent unpleasant experiences.
  • The Westway - raised dual carriageway with no pedestrian access - is 20mph (down from 40) thanks to Mayor Khan.

    It’s ludicrous.
    Are you sure that's true? I can't find any evidence of that happening but I don't use the A40.
    Introducing 20mph limits in London has reduced collisions and fatal collisions by 25% and reduced collisions involving pedestrians by more than half on the roads affected. Seems like a great policy.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2023/february/new-data-shows-significant-improvements-in-road-safety-in-london-since-introduction-of-20mph-speed-limits
  • Eabhal said:

    The petition is correlated with people in Wales who identified as "English" in the census, so you could well be right.
    I doubt people in Wrexham and the borders or South Wales, which are the largest signatures, identify as being English
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    isam said:

    Very good, especially the embarrassment of dismissing someone’s view just because they were a Daily Mail reader. Incredible what tribalism does
    In my experience, understanding tribalism is essential to understanding people in general.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    isam said:

    Interesting attack. Isn’t it better to read newspapers we disagree with, in order to be better read/broaden our minds?

    If we are going to criticise something, shouldn’t we have read it first? If Topping was criticising The Guardian, then saying he never read it, that would surely be worse?
    There is healthy space between TOPPING never reading The Guardian and his reading, in his own words, "so many articles in today's edition". I was surprised by the masochism of "so many".
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    You may be surprised but I do not disagree with you

    My experience in Scotland is that most villages or small towns have a 30mph lead in and then drop to 20mph in the centre which is uncontroversial. Indeed I recall being in Dunkeld last year and this was a good example

    As far as by passes are concerned absolutely, but Drakeford has cancelled all road building in Wales including the much needed third Menai crossing
    So why are you getting so upset? You're suggesting that main and residential roads in built up areas should be 20mph.

    That's precisely the Drake's policy!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552

    I read other points of view. I don't subject myself to frequent unpleasant experiences.
    Not sure what you are trying to say here.
  • ...

    I read other points of view. I don't subject myself to frequent unpleasant experiences.
    I think we all read plenty of views that we oppose here. It's one of the reasons I like PB.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    Post Office Inquiry live stream.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWhTkYE4NhA
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552

    There is healthy space between TOPPING never reading The Guardian and his reading, in his own words, "so many articles in today's edition". I was surprised by the masochism of "so many".
    Ah. Hyperbole. I read the articles that have been linked to and googled "Brand Guardian columnist" to confirm he was actually a Guardian columnist and read the article it threw up. He was a Guardian columnist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Eabhal said:

    So why are you getting so upset? You're suggesting that main and residential roads in built up areas should be 20mph.

    That's precisely the Drake's policy!
    THE DRAKE
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited September 2023
    Eabhal said:

    The "main road" argument is undermined by the fact that most collisions and injuries occur on those roads, as you'd expect. They have the most traffic.

    In the Scottish Borders (under the Tories) there was a conscious decision to apply the 20mph to the A roads running through the villages precisely because of the level of traffic, lorries etc

    This is as also an argument for bypassing those villages, which I'm sympathetic to, but it's a lot cheaper to apply a speed limit in the medium term than a big infrastructure project.
    I'm all for trying it out, as I say. I hate traffic speeding past as much as the next man and use a bicycle locally.

    Are there any good statistics on the accident rate in the Borders after the limit was brought in?

    There is definitely a down side in areas with no alternatives to road transport, though. It would be nice to have some formal measurements including journey times.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    Are you sure that's true? I can't find any evidence of that happening but I don't use the A40.
    Introducing 20mph limits in London has reduced collisions and fatal collisions by 25% and reduced collisions involving pedestrians by more than half on the roads affected. Seems like a great policy.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2023/february/new-data-shows-significant-improvements-in-road-safety-in-london-since-introduction-of-20mph-speed-limits
    https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/what-london-assembly-does/questions-mayor/find-an-answer/westway-speed-limit says that the Westway speed limit has been reduced from 50 to 30 (not 40 to 20), but that's because of concerns about the structure!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,069

    That’s a UK/European approach. FDA still likes placebo
    I don't know the details, but I presume then that the FDA wants a "3 arm" trial with placebo/current/test arms.

    Doing a test/placebo trial for an illness where there is a known effective treatment is not only unethical, it says nothing about whether the new treatment should be used.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552

    Are you sure that's true? I can't find any evidence of that happening but I don't use the A40.
    Introducing 20mph limits in London has reduced collisions and fatal collisions by 25% and reduced collisions involving pedestrians by more than half on the roads affected. Seems like a great policy.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2023/february/new-data-shows-significant-improvements-in-road-safety-in-london-since-introduction-of-20mph-speed-limits
    One of the joys of driving in Central London used to be bowling along at 70mph on the Westway. That came down to 50 (and a speed camera was introduced) and then 40mph which is ridiculous-seeming but perhaps avoids the congestion (eastwards) as it joins the Marylebone Road, which could stretch back quite some distance.

    20mph? Not sure that is correct. Or at least wasn't the last time I was on it. Perhaps once it hits the Marylebone Road but don't recall as you would be lucky to reach 20mph there in any case.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757
    edited September 2023

    A question for scientists/medics here.

    Interesting article about a reanalysis of Tavistock data that had originally shown no impact on mental health for children on puberty blockers. New analysis says a 34% had deteriorated and 25% had improved.

    What strikes me as odd is that "the original study used scores from both parent and child questionnaires, which assessed children's behavioural and emotional problems" ... if it's based on self reported data then all else equal couldn't an improvement be possibly expected even from simply a placebo effect?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66842352

    I'll try to look at this later (no promises) to give a more considered opinion. But a cold-read[1] response is
    • Questionnaires. Questionnaires to judge quality-of-life or mood are quite standard. Google HRQoL for an example.
    • Placebo effect. Whether a change is caused by a placebo or not is conceptually difficult to answer without knowing the causation chain.
    • Self-reported data. Without Mr Spock to do a mind-meld, self-reported data is a way of assessing a person's internal/mental state. Are you happy or sad today?
    • Sample size. If I see one more fuckwit (not you, @BartholomewRoberts) bang on about "low sample size" I'll throw a fridge at the wall. Sample sizes are not necessarily important if you don't have a statistical test (each test has its own minimum sample size[2] to give power) and the effect size is larger than the accuracy. You don't need a large sample size to see if a flea is as heavy as an elephant.
    Notes
    [1] A cold-read are statements that are always true regardless of the study. A fortune teller cold-read is "you went thru a bit of a difficult patch in your teens".
    [2] The Fisher's exact test can cope with really tiny samples. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher's_exact_test
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    Nigelb said:

    Japan population: One in 10 people now aged 80 or older.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66850943
    For the first time ever, more than one in 10 people in Japan are now aged 80 or older.
    National data also shows 29.1% of the 125 million population is aged 65 or older- a record.
    Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world and has long struggled with how to provide for its ageing population.
    It has the world's oldest population, measured by the proportion of people aged 65 or up, the United Nations says.
    That proportion stands at 24.5% in Italy and 23.6% in Finland, which rank second and third respectively...

    Their population is dropping by about half a million every year. Already down about 3.5 million on the peak of 128 million.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552
    Farooq said:

    I don't spend any time looking at CiF, so no, I don't recall this. You should save the effort of convincing me that Guardian is hypocritical and narrower in its view than it believes, I already agree. I just think your apparent obsession with it is egregiously weird. Your obvious hatred for it combined with your apparent avid consumption of it and your self reported hysteria at its contents make you sound probably more unhinged than you intended.
    My first post was noting the enjoyment at the Guardian's hypocrisy being exposed as being a champion of liberal values employing evident and self-confessed sexually rampant Russell Brand so it is a bit of a man bites dog situation. We expect this from many newspapers (including the Guardian) but when it's the Guardian there is nevertheless added piquancy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,291

    But no criticism of the Scottish government repeatedly pushing things they know are outside their remit for political gain?
    Shouldn't we wait for the court's verdict on whether they were acting outside their remit? That's the point of it after all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552
    Farooq said:

    There is no elevated piquancy. The Guardian isn't a special case. It's not different to other outlets. This is entirely eye-of-the-beholder stuff.
    Not true. The Guardian believes it is morally superior to the Mail and the Sun. As do you, I would guess.
  • TOPPING said:

    My first post was noting the enjoyment at the Guardian's hypocrisy being exposed as being a champion of liberal values employing evident and self-confessed sexually rampant Russell Brand so it is a bit of a man bites dog situation. We expect this from many newspapers (including the Guardian) but when it's the Guardian there is nevertheless added piquancy.
    Guardian hypocrisy or a changed zeitgeist? Liberal values once included free sex. Now in at least some quarters is the presumption that since women cannot possibly want sex, they must have been tricked or manipulated. Of course, we must also bear in mind that even rapists can have consensual sex, so each allegation must be investigated.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    I'm all for trying it out, as I say. I hate traffic speeding past as much as the next man and use a bicycle locally.

    Are there any good statistics on the accident rate in the Borders after the limit was brought in?

    There is definitely a down side in areas with no alternatives to road transport, though. It would be nice to have some formal measurements including journey times.
    Not sure, I'll have a dig around.

    I'd guess journey time change would be tiny because the average journey in the borders will be much longer than average.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    TOPPING said:

    I just don't like the Guardian.
    That's obvious.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    edited September 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Not sure, I'll have a dig around.

    I'd guess journey time change would be tiny because the average journey in the borders will be much longer than average.
    There you go. Published 6 days ago, but just average speeds from what I can tell.

    https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/9/3/66
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181
    edited September 2023
    ...
    Farooq said:

    Part of the reason these crimes (the kind Brand is accused of) are serious is that they are tied up in cultures of shame, silence, power, and coercion. Your job as a non-participant, non-witness, non-victim, is relatively simple: avoid contributing to the culture that says victims must act in this or that way or they oughtn't be believed.

    You are doing the exact opposite of that.
    I am afraid what you appear to be doing is using dubious appeals to sentiment to try and complicate a very simple concept, not just in cases of sexual abuse, but in all legal cases, that witnesses and alleged victims need to focus on giving the the jury enough evidence of the crime to convict. Taking to the airwaves to denounce the alleged perpetrator on everything except the colour of his socks does not convince this layperson (perhaps lawyers will correct me) of the seriousness of the accusation, and could imo be used by the defence. If Brand is a rapist, he should be put on trial, convicted, and given an appropriate sentence. This intervention would seem to make that less likely.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    tlg86 said:

    Benjamin Mendy and Alex Salmond have entered the conversation.

    I don't think saying "Brand behaves badly, therefore, people should be allowed to behave in the same way towards him" is a very good argument to be honest.
    The idea that all d
    TOPPING said:

    Your kidding, right? What fun would it be only to read articles from Railway Modeller. Or does it surprise you that people, not you obvs, read other points of view.
    Railway Modeller went woke - claiming that O guage and other large scales were elitest.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I liked Marina Hyde’s article, but some of the horror of how awful the 00s media/tv (Little Britain/Bo Selecta etc) was needs to be balanced against the Love Island/Instagram filter culture the twenty somethings have now. Is that any better? I’d say there will be as many horror stories, if not more, in a decade or so about the same behaviour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    edited September 2023
    Busan underground for @Sunil_Prasannan (which also goes overground as the city is so hilly).

    Carriages are air conditioned - as in Seoul - but stations aren't.
    Travel card works in both cities (and elsewhere.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,291
    darkage said:

    Agreed, it is very disturbing reading about what happened to her. Not a crime but something that clearly caused a lot of trauma and hurt for many years.
    Misogyny is powerful and widespread. It's rife here and 'here' is a beacon on gender equality compared to many parts of the world.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 954
    Whatever the rights and wrongs we appear to have yet another instance of a person virtually being found guilty by the media before any investigation has even started, you would have thought after Cliff Richard they would have learnt their lesson, but No. By highlighting it here,is this web site falling into the same trap?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757
    edited September 2023

    I don't subject myself to frequent unpleasant experiences.

    "Subjecting oneself to frequent unpleasant experiences" is the PB motto I believe :):)

  • ...
    theakes said:

    Whatever the rights and wrongs we appear to have yet another instance of a person virtually being found guilty by the media before any investigation has even started, you would have thought after Cliff Richard they would have learnt their lesson, but No. By highlighting it here,is this web site falling into the same trap?

    Quite.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,074
    viewcode said:

    "Subjecting oneself to frequent unpleasant experiences" is the PB motto I believe :):)

    Vapid Bilge
  • https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/what-london-assembly-does/questions-mayor/find-an-answer/westway-speed-limit says that the Westway speed limit has been reduced from 50 to 30 (not 40 to 20), but that's because of concerns about the structure!
    Yes I assume it is similar concerns that mean the Marylebone Flyover is 30 while the rest of the A4 is 40. Presumably the worry is a truck hitting the parapet at 40 could bring the whole thing down.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    theakes said:

    Whatever the rights and wrongs we appear to have yet another instance of a person virtually being found guilty by the media before any investigation has even started, you would have thought after Cliff Richard they would have learnt their lesson, but No. By highlighting it here,is this web site falling into the same trap?

    I think the evidence put in the public domain about the two individuals is very, very different.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    ...

    I am afraid what you appear to be doing is using dubious appeals to sentiment to try and dispute the very simple concept, not just in cases of sexual abuse, but in all legal cases, that witnesses and alleged victims need to focus on giving the the jury enough evidence of the crime to convict. Taking to the airwaves to denounce the alleged perpetrator on everything except the colour of his socks does not convince this layperson (perhaps lawyers will correct me) of the seriousness of the accusation, and could imo be used by the defence. If Brand is a rapist, he should be put on trial, convicted, and given an appropriate sentence. This intervention would seem to make that less likely.
    You are treating the sexual assault against women as if it is just a thing individual men do rather than the entire cultural norm for this country and most of the Western world until, like, a decade or two ago? The reason that women have to address this publicly, have to make this a wider issue, have to comment on how common this is and how people hide it and so on is precisely because it is not just the criminal acts of bad individuals but extremely significant to how society has functioned. 1 in 3 women have been sexually assaulted by a man. The rate of prosecution is miniscule, and conviction lower. It's epidemic - and yes Brand needs to be held accountable for it, but society needs to fundamentally change. Hell, marital rape has only been illegal since 2003!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552
    Farooq said:

    Wrong. I do not think the Guardian is morally superior.

    I also think the Sun* sees itself as more righteous as the Guardian and the Mail. I think the Mail* believes its crusade for truth and justice is holier than the Sun's or the Guardian's. They all think they are right, otherwise they would act differently. The Guardian is in line with all the other papers in that respect.

    *I feel a bit weird ascribing these emotional states to companies/publications.
    You might not think the Guardian is morally superior (although again I would bet that its values accord more with your own than the Sun) but the Guardian thinks it is morally superior - as you agree - and hence it amuses me when they are found to have feet of clay.

    Why am I focusing only on the Guardian? Because it's very funny. Article upon article about the wrongs of society today and then they are the ones committing the egregious act of employing Brand. And mining customers' data for marketing purposes, similarly to firms that they criticise for doing the same thing, but that's another matter.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    theakes said:

    Whatever the rights and wrongs we appear to have yet another instance of a person virtually being found guilty by the media before any investigation has even started, you would have thought after Cliff Richard they would have learnt their lesson, but No. By highlighting it here,is this web site falling into the same trap?

    Yes, it's baffling.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    I think the evidence put in the public domain about the two individuals is very, very different.
    I'll be honest, I haven't read the Times piece or watched the programme, but is it Mason Greenwood style evidence?
  • Farooq said:

    No appeal to sentiment from me. The facts of crimes like rape and sexual assault are that victims find if difficult to come forward because of various reasons, not least the weird insistence within the culture that victims ought comport themselves in a particular way. We should avoid doing that.
    It has nothing to do with comportment, it is about there being a fair, unprejudiced trial.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    tlg86 said:

    I'll be honest, I haven't read the Times piece or watched the programme, but is it Mason Greenwood style evidence?
    I know nothing about football. Don't ask me football-related questions.

    If you're interested, there are plenty of summaries available online about Brand.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890

    20mph: Petition becomes most signed in Senedd history

    https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548

    Now at over 140,000

    It is interesting from the map that the highest number of signatures are from the labour dominated areas of North and South Wales

    The Welsh electorate is around 2.3 million so it's at about 6% atm.

    https://www.gov.wales/electoral-roll-2022
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Farooq said:

    Silly question, perhaps, but you do know that "agile" is a methodological framework for how you run projects, right? Your post seems to imply it's just a meaningless buzz word but I'm not sure.
    Agile is a pretty good framework. It has its weaknesses to be sure, but one thing is clear: you do need SOME kind of framework when running a project. Otherwise it's chaos and nothing gets delivered. If not Agile, something else.
    Like every other methodology, it’s been turned into a cult and a stupid buzzword striped of all the original meanings by betaminus minds in management.

    It still actually works as a way of building software.

    I was present for a speech by one of the originators of the PRINCE2 methodology. He spent quite some time apologising for how it had become a religion, rather than guidelines…
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 729
    I am getting all of my RWC predictions in early for this third weekend, starting with:

    Weds ITA v URU. This could be an entertaining game as teams are effectively playing off for 3rd place in group. Italy by 15.

    Thurs FRA v NAM. If France decide to turn up this could be a record breaking score. But as against Uruguay I suspect that France wont try too hard and will win ‘only’ by 40.

    Fri ARG v SAM. This will be one of the weekends big games. Argentina were surprisingly poor in their opening game against England, while Samoa were not really tested against Chile. But this game is effectively a knockout match to decide which of the two qualify for the quarter finals, and both sides will raise their game. Both sides are very physical especially Samoa, and I would not be surprised to see a red card – or two!! Samoa to win by 10
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 729
    Three games up on Saturday:

    ENG v CHI. Chile will run anything they get back at England, but England will be too strong and should win by 20-30

    GEO v POR. This will be well matched – with Georgia’s physicality against Portugal’s fluid game. Georgia to eventually win by 10, but it will be close for much of the game. Portugal could even win (potential betting opportunity)

    RSA v IRE. This game will be immense. Ireland are very controlled but will meet their match in South Africa, especially when they meet the ‘Bomb Squad’ in the pack. I think RSA will just be too strong for Ireland – South Africa by 6
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882
    The Telegraph continues its campaign on inheritance tax with the rather bizarre claim raising the threshold to £1Million will win the Tories the next election

    Can't see that going down well in the red wall

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/1m-inheritance-tax-threshold-could-win-us-the-election-say-tory-mps/ar-AA1gSXRY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=f6d88a7e1c89400698c33f95bb1a456c&ei=11
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 729
    Then two on Sunday:

    SCO v TON. This game has consolation prize written all over it. Scotland could still qualify but it will be incredibly difficult. Expect a high scoring game but with Scotland pulling away by 20 at the end.

    WAL v AUS. Another massive game. Wales will have the advantage of having rested almost all of their first team for two weeks – while Australia have to turnaround only 1 week from their battering by Fiji, and will be nursing mental as well as physical scars. This is a must win game for Australia or they are going home, while Wales could potentially lose and still qualify, or even win the group – it is that close. Expect Gatland to work out an effective game plan while Eddie Jones will come up with something…anything. I think Wales will win this match but by 6 points or less.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    Andy_JS said:

    The Welsh electorate is around 2.3 million so it's at about 6% atm.

    https://www.gov.wales/electoral-roll-2022
    I've signed it - so the petition is open to a wider electorate than just those in Wales.
  • boulay said:

    O/T with Starmer visiting Macron today and other recent meetings with other foreign politicians is this normal and accepted protocol? Would for example, the French be ok if a year or so out from their election the British PM entertained a sitting President’s rival for the job? Or if the British PM met with Biden’s potential opponent (obviously would be mad to meet Trump).

    I always thought it was something that’s not done but clearly incorrect.

    I believe Blair met GW Bush when he was still LG down in Texas

  • Farooq said:

    It's not hard to find jurors who haven't read anything an alleged victim has had to say about Brand. I'm one of them. There will be millions upon millions who skip past this kind of stuff.
    Me too. That's until any capable defence team questions her evidence in the light of the fact that she took to the airwaves when the story broke with a screed about Brand's evil empire. Whereupon presumably she expands on her general critique, and completely undermines herself as a prosecution witness.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644
    Taz said:

    The Telegraph continues its campaign on inheritance tax with the rather bizarre claim raising the threshold to £1Million will win the Tories the next election

    Can't see that going down well in the red wall

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/1m-inheritance-tax-threshold-could-win-us-the-election-say-tory-mps/ar-AA1gSXRY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=f6d88a7e1c89400698c33f95bb1a456c&ei=11

    IHT requires:

    A non punitive rate (10% max)
    Many fewer exemptions - like none.
    Making it impossible to avoid by planning and timing.

    Currently for the rich and organised the tax is mostly voluntary. For lots of lawyers and accountants it is their full time job.

    For most DT readers the exemptions amount to £1m at the moment. (Husband+wife+home).

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    The first four recommendations of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry suggest that the Scottish Government should hold an inquiry into why the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry took so long and cost so much.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    Stocky said:

    I've signed it - so the petition is open to a wider electorate than just those in Wales.
    Don't you have to provide a Welsh postcode to sign the petition?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,247
    algarkirk said:

    IHT requires:

    A non punitive rate (10% max)
    Many fewer exemptions - like none.
    Making it impossible to avoid by planning and timing.

    Currently for the rich and organised the tax is mostly voluntary. For lots of lawyers and accountants it is their full time job.

    For most DT readers the exemptions amount to £1m at the moment. (Husband+wife+home).

    That is all pretty obvious, although, like all tax changes, some people would howl about it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Taz said:

    The Telegraph continues its campaign on inheritance tax with the rather bizarre claim raising the threshold to £1Million will win the Tories the next election

    Can't see that going down well in the red wall

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/1m-inheritance-tax-threshold-could-win-us-the-election-say-tory-mps/ar-AA1gSXRY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=f6d88a7e1c89400698c33f95bb1a456c&ei=11

    I don't think it would make much difference to the vast majority in the country who are never expecting to trouble the current IHT threshold, either when receiving or passing on. And tbh It will only persuade a few wavering voters who are likely to benefit.

    At the last count only 3.73% of estates paid any IHT. Even allowing for the fact that several people are likely to benefit from each estate, I doubt if more than 15% of the population have any prospect of benefiting and most of those probably vote Tory every time anyway (or like Mrs P. and I would never vote Tory on principle and would certainly not be swung by such a regressive tax bribe.)

    Labour should steal a march on the Tories and adopt Barty's suggestion: abolish IHT and treat any gifts or inheritances over a small threshold as income for ICT purposes.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 729
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't you have to provide a Welsh postcode to sign the petition?
    No. But review of metadata gives IP location so easy to verify
  • Farooq said:

    It's not hard to find jurors who haven't read anything an alleged victim has had to say about Brand. I'm one of them. There will be millions upon millions who skip past this kind of stuff.
    People aren't disqualified from being on a jury simply because they have read or heard things in the past about a case, including things alleged victims have said. Indeed, some cases are so notorious that it's practically impossible for that to be avoided and, particularly in the case of retrials and trials on additional alleged offences, people will have a fair bit of background information (correct or not) on the accused which is not presented in evidence.

    What does happen is they are given very clear instruction to disregard anything other than what is presented in evidence, and a stern warning not to do any background research during the trial itself (which jurors occasionally get into a lot of trouble about). An important part of the judge's role, particularly in notorious cases, is to drill those instructions into jurors who might very well come into the court believing they know stuff.

    Juries aren't chosen from amongst those who live under a rock, basically.
  • kinabalu said:

    Shouldn't we wait for the court's verdict on
    whether they were acting outside their
    remit? That's the point of it after all.
    I was picking up @RochdalePioneers criticising one side while trying to give the appearance of being fair & balanced

  • That's a simplification. But it is true that European regulators are more concerned about comparisons with best available practice. That's because the UK/Europe are interested in making people healthier and the US is interested in drug companies making money. Someone posted this video here the other day that is relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtHMB3vroas
    That’s both a simplification and extremely offensive to people who work in the industry
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Andy_JS said:

    Yes, it's baffling.
    It's not baffling at all, it sells papers / increases web traffic / increases viewers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    I know nothing about football. Don't ask me football-related questions.

    If you're interested, there are plenty of summaries available online about Brand.
    Greenwood's girlfriend posted a picture of her face bloodied and a recording of him threatening to hurt her if she didn't have sex with him.

    Basically, not just her word against his. I don't have a Sunday Times sub - is it more than their word against his?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    TOPPING said:

    You might not think the Guardian is morally superior (although again I would bet that its values accord more with your own than the Sun) but the Guardian thinks it is morally superior - as you agree - and hence it amuses me when they are found to have feet of clay.

    Why am I focusing only on the Guardian? Because it's very funny. Article upon article about the wrongs of society today and then they are the ones committing the egregious act of employing Brand. And mining customers' data for marketing purposes, similarly to firms that they criticise for doing the same thing, but that's another matter.
    We all know you are focusing only on the Guardian because it's left of centre and you are right-wing. And that's fair enough, but you should be honest about your motives.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Germany, GMS poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 27%
    AfD-ID: 23% (+2)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 6% (-1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 4%

    +/- vs. 2-9 August 2023

    Fieldwork: 13-18 September 2023
    Sample size: 1,002"

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1704080088629727412
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    Eabhal said:

    There you go. Published 6 days ago, but just average speeds from what I can tell.

    https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/9/3/66
    Thanks, yes. It is journey times we need really. I imagine Google knows...

    It does suggest that the reduction in mean speed is quite small so it might not actually have much effect on either drivers or accidents. It quotes a statistic of a 4% reduction in accidents for each 1mph reduction in speed but that can't possibly be a linear relationship.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    theakes said:

    Whatever the rights and wrongs we appear to have yet another instance of a person virtually being found guilty by the media before any investigation has even started, you would have thought after Cliff Richard they would have learnt their lesson, but No. By highlighting it here,is this web site falling into the same trap?

    No.
  • Me too. That's until any capable defence team questions her evidence in the light of the fact that she took to the airwaves when the story broke with a screed about Brand's evil empire. Whereupon presumably she expands on her general critique, and completely undermines herself as a prosecution witness.
    Any capable prosecutor will point out (both to the jury and to the judge if the defence is seeking to labour the point) that it is hardly surprising if a victim grows to hate a perpetrator for more than just his crimes, and therefore it's completely irrelevant to the matter at hand.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    edited September 2023
    The present witness at the Post Office Inquiry isn't able to remember many of the things she did during the time in question, which is roughly between around 10 and 20 years ago, which is proving rather frustrating for the barrister asking the questions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWhTkYE4NhA
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    Like every other methodology, it’s been turned into a cult and a stupid buzzword striped of all the original meanings by betaminus minds in management.

    It still actually works as a way of building software.

    I was present for a speech by one of the originators of the PRINCE2 methodology. He spent quite some time apologising for how it had become a religion, rather than guidelines…
    All methodologies melt in the heat of project delivery in my experience.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    Farooq said:

    As a juror, I wouldn't be moved by the mere fact that someone had gone on the TV to talk about their alleged victimhood. There are several sensible reasons why a real victim might want to do that. Fine if the defence want to question their motives during the case. I imagine that they would be questioning the motivation and veracity of the allegations in any case.

    What we shouldn't do is assume that a real victim wouldn't act in this or that way. Some victims will shut up and retreat into themselves. Some will be fired up to take the bad guy down. Some might reluctantly go on record to protect others. Some might even want to turn it into a pay day. The important thing is that "victim" isn't a category that supposed or requires uniform, homogeneous responses. What matters is the facts of the case, not the subsequent behaviour of the alleged victim.
    A variety of different allegations have been made by several different women. Those concern various alleged acts, which range from sleazy but not illegal to very serious acts of criminality. Some acts were in the US, some in the UK. The most serious complaints of rape and sexual assault were made by other women, not the pseudonymous Alice under discussion here. Alice has talked more about her experiences; others have said nothing beyond what was in the initial report.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    It has nothing to do with comportment, it is about there being a fair, unprejudiced trial.
    So Brand gets to sound off to all and sundry about his accusers, which is fine by you, but should any if his accusers say anything in public, any trial is prejudiced ?

    You are a berk.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    The idea that all d Railway Modeller went woke - claiming that O guage and other large scales were elitest.
    And also heavily promoting TT as the next big thing and sure to overtake N gauge in the market... The horror.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Andy_JS said:

    The present witness at the Post Office Inquiry isn't able to remember many of the things she did during the time in question, which is roughly between around 10 and 20 years ago, which is proving rather frustrating for the barrister asking the questions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWhTkYE4NhA

    Without watching it, I'm not surprised tbh. These days, if I want to remember what I was doing 10-20 years ago Apple Photos is my first port of call. It's not much use for work related memories though as I didn't take many photos at work.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    That’s both a simplification and extremely offensive to people who work in the industry
    The offence is directed at the US political landscape that has produced their regulatory framework, not at those who work in the industry (unless their work in the industry is as lobbyists).
  • Azerbaijan has launched a new military operation against Armenia.

    https://x.com/neilphauer/status/1704074437975331119
  • Eabhal said:

    So why are you getting so upset? You're suggesting that main and residential roads in built up areas should be 20mph.

    That's precisely the Drake's policy!
    Read what I said

    My experience in Scotland is that most villages or small towns have a 30mph lead in and then drop to 20mph in the centre which is uncontroversial

    That is not happening here
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Me too. That's until any capable defence team questions her evidence in the light of the fact that she took to the airwaves when the story broke with a screed about Brand's evil empire. Whereupon presumably she expands on her general critique, and completely undermines herself as a prosecution witness.
    You realise that would disqualify you as a victim in court, as you have publicly expressed all manner of opinions ?

    I don't think you understand the whole how the whole criminal justice thingy wingy (to coin a phrase) works.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Germany, GMS poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 27%
    AfD-ID: 23% (+2)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 6% (-1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 4%

    +/- vs. 2-9 August 2023

    Fieldwork: 13-18 September 2023
    Sample size: 1,002"

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1704080088629727412

    Two years until the next election though, shirley?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    A

    All methodologies melt in the heat of project delivery in my experience.
    Agile done right - mostly by thinking of it at “agile” with a small a - works very well.

    1) the ultimate result is always vague - an exact specification for something that hasn’t been built and will take a years work to get there… that’s for the birds
    2) break things down into small, quantifiable tasks.
    3) build up structures from the small pieces in a coherent way

    Etc etc

    Agile is really, at its core, about admitting that this is how things are actually done, and going with it, rather than trying to create a perfect specification at the start.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    tlg86 said:

    Greenwood's girlfriend posted a picture of her face bloodied and a recording of him threatening to hurt her if she didn't have sex with him.

    Basically, not just her word against his. I don't have a Sunday Times sub - is it more than their word against his?
    Most of the allegations against Brand, as is the nature of these things, is their word against his, although clearly when it's several people making similar allegations, that is stronger evidence than a single person doing so. There are non-victim witnesses to inappropriate behaviour, although not to the most serious allegations of rape and sexual assault.

    One of the allegations is of rape. The woman concerned was treated at a rape crisis centre on the same day, which the Times confirmed via medical records.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    edited September 2023

    Read what I said

    My experience in Scotland is that most villages or small towns have a 30mph lead in and then drop to 20mph in the centre which is uncontroversial

    That is not happening here
    Is this really the thing you are most exercised about at the moment Big_G?

    I am seeing people who can't pay their (recently doubled) mortgages, people who can't find anywhere to rent, people who can't get a doctor's appointment, etc. etc.

    Is 20mph really such an issue?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    It's very nice of the Welsh Parliament to allow people in other parts of the UK to sign petitions, but it seems a bit counterproductive, since the whole point is to see what people in Wales think about things.

    https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548/map?view=countries&count=signatures
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Farooq said:

    True. And ice cream melts on a hot summer day. But it's still gooood
    Lol - not when it runs down your shirt.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    edited September 2023

    Read what I said

    My experience in Scotland is that most villages or small towns have a 30mph lead in and then drop to 20mph in the centre which is uncontroversial

    That is not happening here
    So that's your only quibble? They don't have a lead in period?

    Come on.
  • Read what I said

    My experience in Scotland is that most villages or small towns have a 30mph lead in and then drop to 20mph in the centre which is uncontroversial

    That is not happening here
    Yet. Because they didn't want to waste years trying to get all of that co-ordinated.

    This new 20mph limit will barely be legally enforced - there are not remotely the resources to do so. I anticipate that just as with the 60 / 30 / 20 / 30 / 60 limit changes in places in Scotland, people will drive a little faster where the 30mph limit was questionable, and then slow down through the urban bit.

    There is a simple truth. Overly-excessive 30mph limits are the responsibility of the council. The opt-out of the change from 30 to 20 is the responsibility of the council. So all of these incorrect speed limits are on councils, not the Senedd. Yet you endlessly blame the Senedd as part of your partisan dislike of Drakeford and Welsh Labour.

    You're perfectly within your rights to dislike those things, this new policy, anything you like. But the championing of this luddite petition is what - hoping the anti-ULEZ magic will rub off on welsh Tories?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    Most of the allegations against Brand, as is the nature of these things, is their word against his, although clearly when it's several people making similar allegations, that is stronger evidence than a single person doing so. There are non-victim witnesses to inappropriate behaviour, although not to the most serious allegations of rape and sexual assault.

    One of the allegations is of rape. The woman concerned was treated at a rape crisis centre on the same day, which the Times confirmed via medical records.
    As I said earlier, Benjamin Mendy and Alex Salmond say hello. I was fairly sure both would be convicted (though, I wasn't aware of Scottish law on this subject), but once I'd heard evidence during the court cases, I was fairly sure both would be acquitted.
  • Is this really the ting you are most exercised about at the moment Big_G?

    I am seeing people who can't pay their (recently doubled) mortgages, people who can't find anywhere to rent, people who can't get a doctor's appointment, etc. Is 20mph really such an issue?
    It is an issue here in Wales as the petition now tops 150,000

    Of course other matters are important
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    Azerbaijan has launched a new military operation against Armenia.

    https://x.com/neilphauer/status/1704074437975331119

    This is sad, and serious, and under-reported. It also again demonstrates Putin's impotency. Azerbaijan are doing this because Russia are no longer able to support Armenia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Most of the allegations against Brand, as is the nature of these things, is their word against his, although clearly when it's several people making similar allegations, that is stronger evidence than a single person doing so. There are non-victim witnesses to inappropriate behaviour, although not to the most serious allegations of rape and sexual assault.

    One of the allegations is of rape. The woman concerned was treated at a rape crisis centre on the same day, which the Times confirmed via medical records.
    No one, at this point, had any idea of whether or not Brand is guilty of the various things alleged against him.

    Should they reach court, all the evidence will be weighed. That various individuals have commented publicly doesn't greatly alter that. Not does the fact that some of his accusers have criticised him in political terms.

    Any prospective jurors likely to be swayed by what they've already read about the case are unlikely to make it through jury selection.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    edited September 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    It's very nice of the Welsh Parliament to allow people in other parts of the UK to sign petitions, but it seems a bit counterproductive, since the whole point is to see what people in Wales think about things.

    https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548/map?view=countries&count=signatures

    Since you self-report your location they can indeed assess what people who say they live in Wales think.
  • Eabhal said:

    So that's your only quibble? They don't have a lead in period?

    Honestly.
    The quibble is Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford. Lets just call out what it is. Its up to the councils to set valid speed limits. Many reportedly have 30mph sections on basically rural roads.

    The new policy changes 30 to 20 as a blanket. You can't leave it to councils as they will take 400 years and get speed limits wrong as we've just noted. So its a national policy where implementation is directly on the council.

    So the target of blame for inappropriate 30 limits is on the council. The target of blame for the lack of opting certain sections out of the new 20 is on the council. The inability to set an appropriate speed limit is on the council.

    But we don't like Labour and hope for a Welsh Tory revival, so...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    tlg86 said:

    As I said earlier, Benjamin Mendy and Alex Salmond say hello. I was fairly sure both would be convicted (though, I wasn't aware of Scottish law on this subject), but once I'd heard evidence during the court cases, I was fairly sure both would be acquitted.
    Again, I know nothing about football.

    Alex Salmond is a sex pest, and I say that with no fear of being sued for libel. I am glad that publicity has made this fact widely known, notwithstanding that he was found not guilty of any crime.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    edited September 2023
    Willing suppliers.

    Top 5 largest suppliers of tanks to #Ukraine 🇺🇦

    1: Poland - ~325
    2: Germany - 90+
    3: The Netherlands - 85 (Despite owning 0 tanks)
    4: Denmark - 85
    5: U.S. - 76

    Altogether, Ukraine has received commitments for just under 900 tanks.

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1704073658929406200

    Denmark, and the Netherlands - wow.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757
    edited September 2023

    That's because the UK/Europe are interested in making people healthier and the US is interested in drug companies making money.

    To be unbearably cynical, the UK/Europe are interested in box-ticking and the US are interested in not being sued. The making-people-healthier bit is a nice-to-have :(

    (Thanks for the video btw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtHMB3vroas , which I found interesting)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    The quibble is Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford. Lets just call out what it is. Its up to the councils to set valid speed limits. Many reportedly have 30mph sections on basically rural roads.

    The new policy changes 30 to 20 as a blanket. You can't leave it to councils as they will take 400 years and get speed limits wrong as we've just noted. So its a national policy where implementation is directly on the council.

    So the target of blame for inappropriate 30 limits is on the council. The target of blame for the lack of opting certain sections out of the new 20 is on the council. The inability to set an appropriate speed limit is on the council.

    But we don't like Labour and hope for a Welsh Tory revival, so...
    Yep, and no local councillor in their right mind is going to campaign for speed limits to go up in their wards.

    People want to drive though other people's neighbourhoods at speed, not their own. BigG actually lives in an LTN himself, yet is furious about not driving at 30mph everywhere else.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505
    edited September 2023
    This petition. https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548 Lets have a read:

    The new 20mph law is coming into force on the 17th September and it will mark the end of having socialism in power in Wales.

    Welsh Government claim to have supporting evidence stating that reducing to 20mph EVERWHERE saves lives! Yet we get flyers merely claiming that it will, and opinions from doctors that see RTCs coming into A&E. This is NOT evidence. The only true evidence is from Belfast and it states it makes NO DIFFERENCE to RTCs!

    At least one of the trial villages in Monmouthshire actually reverted their trial because it was causing absolute carnage on the roads! Mark Drakeford has come out claiming it is a success in St Brides Major but every time I go though there NO ONE is driving at 20mph.
    The Welsh Government has FAILED to produce ANY convincing evidence to support these claims of safety. This law is being spearheaded by the WG Climate Change department and NOT Health & Safety!!
    YOU HAVE NOT LISTENED TO US.
    The Welsh Government was put there BY THE PEOPLE OF WALES, We are your boss! We demand that this foolish idea be stopped.


    Bit mouth-foamy isn't it! The first sentence demonstrates just how mouth-foamy the author was, thrashing away at their keyboard. "it will mark the end of having socialism in power in Wales" - huh? Does he mean it will be the start of removing "socialism" from power? Or that socialism will be ended by this and thus socialism opposes it?

    Some ranting about WG evidence being rubbing whilst showing they don't understand what evidence is or making any actual counter with other evidence. A trial erversed cos it caused absolute carnage! How exactly?

    Finger Climate Change - cos thats all a lie see - and point out We are your boss! Except that if you are a mouth-foaming Welsh Tory, you're very much in the minority.

    Do have to laugh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    "George Monbiot nominated Brand as his “hero of the year” in 2014. “Brand’s openness about his flaws makes him a good leader, and allows those who admire him to be good followers,” wrote Monbiot. “He’s the best thing that has happened to the Left in years.” But Brand’s “openness about his flaws” did not mean he was reformed. It was a strategic move to flannel those who were naive enough to confuse confession with salvation.

    In 2015, Brand endorsed Ed Miliband (after previously telling his followers not to vote). “Russell Brand has endorsed Labour — and the Tories should be worried,” was the headline on an Owen Jones column. Brand returned the favour by blurbing Jones’s book The Establishment: “Owen Jones… is our generation’s Orwell and we must cherish him.”"

    https://unherd.com/2023/09/the-noughties-enabled-russell-brand/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Montsegur!


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,291

    This petition. https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548 Lets have a read:

    The new 20mph law is coming into force on the 17th September and it will mark the end of having socialism in power in Wales.

    Welsh Government claim to have supporting evidence stating that reducing to 20mph EVERWHERE saves lives! Yet we get flyers merely claiming that it will, and opinions from doctors that see RTCs coming into A&E. This is NOT evidence. The only true evidence is from Belfast and it states it makes NO DIFFERENCE to RTCs!

    At least one of the trial villages in Monmouthshire actually reverted their trial because it was causing absolute carnage on the roads! Mark Drakeford has come out claiming it is a success in St Brides Major but every time I go though there NO ONE is driving at 20mph.
    The Welsh Government has FAILED to produce ANY convincing evidence to support these claims of safety. This law is being spearheaded by the WG Climate Change department and NOT Health & Safety!!
    YOU HAVE NOT LISTENED TO US.
    The Welsh Government was put there BY THE PEOPLE OF WALES, We are your boss! We demand that this foolish idea be stopped.


    Bit mouth-foamy isn't it! The first sentence demonstrates just how mouth-foamy the author was, thrashing away at their keyboard. "it will mark the end of having socialism in power in Wales" - huh? Does he mean it will be the start of removing "socialism" from power? Or that socialism will be ended by this and thus socialism opposes it?

    Some ranting about WG evidence being rubbing whilst showing they don't understand what evidence is or making any actual counter with other evidence. A trial erversed cos it caused absolute carnage! How exactly?

    Finger Climate Change - cos thats all a lie see - and point out We are your boss! Except that if you are a mouth-foaming Welsh Tory, you're very much in the minority.

    Do have to laugh.

    To secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry and the most equitable distribution thereof that may be possible upon the basis of the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, and the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service. And a 20 mph speed limit in built up areas.
This discussion has been closed.