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Why I’m reluctant to bet on a LAB majority pt2 – politicalbetting.com

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  • On topic, Part 2:


  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    Carnyx said:

    Green belt.
    Migrant camps. (Will Portland vote Tory again? Though note it's carefully at one end of Mr Drax's constituency.)
    Schools made with RAAC and other dodgy stuff.
    Now the RAAC list is out @HYUFD, is it still as disproportionately am Essex problem? If the knowns and unknowns scaled up, it looked like a sizeable chunk of schooling capacity could be wiped out in the county and unitaries.
  • Carnyx said:

    "Choose" isa a very libertatrian word. Not everyone has the same choices as you.

    And not everyone wants to see their home towns erased and given the Southwold-cum-Marbella treatment.

    Everyone should have the same choices, that's the point of libertarianism.

    Too many people want to do what they like, get a home or business of their own, but then pull up the drawbridge for others. "Sorry I got mine, so screw you".

    If you don't want Edinburgh to be a place that attracts tourists then don't facilitate that in your own actions, but you shouldn't prevent others from doing so if they do want that.
  • In 1914 the Royal Navy was rather well prepared for dealing with the German fleet. Which spent much of the war trying to avoid its jailers… the submarine problem was as a result of that success.

    In 1939 the biggest problem was that Hitler started the war before he was ready - the RN was building towards being 100% ready in 1941, given the German plan to be ready in 1942.
    One of the ultimate ironies of 1914 is that the Navy was far better prepared than it might have been but for Erskine Childers writing The Riddle of the Sands. This was take so seriously by some in Government - not least Churchill - that the threat of German domination of the 'German Sea' as it was still commonly known up to WW1was recognised and countered prior to the war.

    The irony comes from the fact that he was later executed for his opposition to the Anglo-Irish Treaty in 1922 and was described by Churchill as a monstrous individual.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099
    HYUFD said:

    Outside of suburban London I doubt there will be any local issues as significant as ULEZ. However Tory MPs may benefit a bit from incumbency

    Worth noting too that an Uxbridge swing puts Starmer in Number 10, albeit a minority government.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453

    Distant blockade worked like clockwork and was vital to the eventual defeat of Germany in WWI

    Bottling up the German surface navy was step one in this.
    You're right. It was all about deterrence. If there had been a significant naval action then the floodgates would have been opened.
  • https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1699472464076525970

    Jonathan at ADL kicked off a massive Twitter boycott campaign less than a week after the acquisition closed.

    Literally nothing had changed about the site.

    Our US revenue is still 60% down from that campaign, but slowly improving.
  • Which is why I don't choose to live in a flat.

    Your argument just seems to be pure NIMBYism. I'm sorry, but my view on NIMBYs doesn't change when its about STLs instead of being about construction.

    What other people do with their flat should be up to them. If you don't like it, don't choose to live in a flat, if you do you're making a conscious choice to have communal areas or possibility of sound.
    Number of years ago, there was a guy in an apartment in my humble building, who was cooking meth.

    Watched fire-fighters carrying his little boy down the stairs and out the front door, the day the apartment got raided (his not mine).

    In USA there are laws - fed, state and mostly local - governing what constitutes nuisance or worse.

    In my equally humble experience, in gritty urbanity (relieved in Seattle by lots of trees and other flora) most effective sanction re: excessive noise or other crapola, is complaining to the landlord.

    BTW & FYI, most of the other tenants are students. And on whatever scale, I'm likely rowdier than they!
  • How does a STL "literally destroy" anyone's life?
    Have you ever tried to learn the Standard Template Library? It takes what is already a complex language built on top of a bodged, historic mess and expands it in all sorts of wonderful random directions.

    The STL is literally destroying the sanity of a friend who's having to learn 'modern' C++ at the moment...

    Oh, you meant Short Term Lets...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453

    One of the ultimate ironies of 1914 is that the Navy was far better prepared than it might have been but for Erskine Childers writing The Riddle of the Sands. This was take so seriously by some in Government - not least Churchill - that the threat of German domination of the 'German Sea' as it was still commonly known up to WW1was recognised and countered prior to the war.

    The irony comes from the fact that he was later executed for his opposition to the Anglo-Irish Treaty in 1922 and was described by Churchill as a monstrous individual.
    I think I'd struggle to see why the Navy should have been quite as unprepared as it was,
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,076
    Omnium said:

    I think I'd struggle to see why the Navy should have been quite as unprepared as it was,
    Unprepared for what? Within a very short time of the war starting the surface was clear of German warships, using the previously prepared plans.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1699472464076525970

    Jonathan at ADL kicked off a massive Twitter boycott campaign less than a week after the acquisition closed.

    Literally nothing had changed about the site.

    Our US revenue is still 60% down from that campaign, but slowly improving.

    Even if that's true Elon...so?
  • https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1699472464076525970

    Jonathan at ADL kicked off a massive Twitter boycott campaign less than a week after the acquisition closed.

    Literally nothing had changed about the site.

    Our US revenue is still 60% down from that campaign, but slowly improving.

    Do you believe Musk when he says that?
  • Farooq said:

    If you have a home but you don't want to live in a holiday complex that's not pulling up the drawbridge.

    Hypocrisy would be hating Airbnb next door and then using Airbnb when you go to Barcelona. Just not wanting a constant stream of short-term visitors in the flats above, below, left, right, and opposite is a perfectly understandable goal given the unarguable fact that people behave differently on holiday compared to around their own home.
    Reflecting upon it, I suppose I've always argued for a zoning policy, and if that were done so that you had zones for residential and zones for tourism, then that would be a reasonable compromise?

    Still no need for planning permission though, zoning should replace it.
  • A twitter thread about what life for Ukrainians under Russian occupation is like:

    https://twitter.com/yermolenko_v/status/1699156009573335461

    It might be overhyped, but it certainly does not sound good. It also mirrors, in part, some of the stories that came out of the LPR and DPR post-2014
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,752
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm scared that one day my wife will discover that when she thinks I'm working, I'm actually hanging out on PB.
    It suggests the "just be yourself" advice may not be all its cracked up to be.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,128
    Sandpit said:

    After missing it originally, thanks to an unplanned trip abroad, have now finally booked tickets to see the Oppenheimer movie on Friday. Annoyed to have missed the IMAX screenings though.

    Doing a double-header with Sound of Freedom, rather than Barbie.

    Fuck. Take a cushion and wear compression socks, [assuming you're watching one after the other]

    This is the point where I remind you that Equalizer 3 is only 109 minutes
  • https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1699472464076525970

    Jonathan at ADL kicked off a massive Twitter boycott campaign less than a week after the acquisition closed.

    Literally nothing had changed about the site.

    Our US revenue is still 60% down from that campaign, but slowly improving.

    "Free speech absolutist" objects to free speech.

    Calling for boycotts is perfectly legal free speech.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Farooq said:

    People grossly understate the political nature of SCOTUS. It's really quite partisan, and the individual justices have their own political and social axes to grind that are sometimes not closely aligned to parties.
    They also are pretty much unaccountable in practice, a rather unequal branch of government.

    Their partisan arguments are usually better expressed, because they are intelligent jurists, and as you note not perfectly aligned with the parties of the day - longevity and power explaining that - but very much present. They point it out bluntly to each other in minority judgements, as political opinion overrides any judicial reasoning.

    On this particular case I'd bet it goes nowhere, but not because Trump 'must be defeated at the ballot box'. That'd be nice but is bollocks, as it's often used in a way to claim immunity from legal consequence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Reflecting upon it, I suppose I've always argued for a zoning policy, and if that were done so that you had zones for residential and zones for tourism, then that would be a reasonable compromise?

    Still no need for planning permission though, zoning should replace it.
    Not acceptable at all. That would destroy whole swathes of central Edinburgh as functioning communities. Even you would complain if someone came along and declared ytour house a tourist area.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    viewcode said:

    Fuck. Take a cushion and wear compression socks, [assuming you're watching one after the other]

    This is the point where I remind you that Equalizer 3 is only 109 minutes
    It felt longer.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 2023

    Personally, I think the Supreme Court will dismiss it by more than that, quite possibly 9-0, because the argument is weak.

    People slightly overstate the partisan aspect of the US courts, particularly the Supreme Court. It's certainly true that they follow different judicial doctrines such that it's reasonable to talk about a liberal group and a conservative group. But they are actually, in general, trying to get a legally correct answer.

    For example, Roberts and Kavanagh recently voted to require Alabama to redraw a Congressional map that was advantageous to the GOP but appeared in breach of the Voting Rights Act. Away from the Supreme Court, conservative, Trump appointed judges were among those to dismiss out of hand all the many misconceived cases brought by the Trump campaign following the 2020 election.

    I may be wrong on this, and I know those pushing it has recruited a few constitutional lawyers who can't be airily dismissed as total cranks, but the legal argument for disqualifying Trump under the 14th amendment looks pretty weak to me, and I'm very far from convinced the three liberals will bite.
    Check out the Paxton impeachment trial in Austin, now being broadcast live from Texas state senate chamber.

    The AG has got himself a slick lawyer, with the mouse and (maybe) the nous, to prove it.

    Today he been engaged in cross examining first witness, a former assistant state AG who was one who blew the whistle on Paxton. Early days, but so appears to be on fishing expedition without many fish to show for it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVpkHqaJxnI

    Addendum - note that this is Republican versus Republican, with Paxton, Trump and their ilk labeling less-obliging GOPers as "RHINOS".
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687

    "Free speech absolutist" objects to free speech.

    Calling for boycotts is perfectly legal free speech.
    Pointing out that the adverts your company is spending money on are alongside things you don't want to be associated with is a useful warning for many companies.

    Got to say that the only adverts I see on Twitter are drop ship scams, Crypto scams and more recently people trying to get newsletter signups so they can then sell you their scams...
  • "Free speech absolutist" objects to free speech.

    Calling for boycotts is perfectly legal free speech.
    It's also notable that, as is often the case, none of this is Musk's fault. It's all someone else's fault. He has made no mistakes; the fall in revenue is nothing to do with him, but all the fault of all these awful people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Check out the Paxton impeachment trial in Austin, now being broadcast live from Texas state senate chamber.

    The AG has got himself a slick lawyer, with the mouse and (maybe) the nous, to prove it.

    Today he been engaged in cross examining first witness, a former assistant state AG who was one who blew the whistle on Paxton. Early days, but so appears to be on fishing expedition without many fish to show for it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVpkHqaJxnI

    Addendum - note that this is Republican versus Republican, with Paxton, Trump and their ilk labeling less-obliging GOPers as "RHINOS".
    Since I'd assume they're in no danger of losing the state hopefully they follow through and decide bad conduct is still bad when done by your own side.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,128
    edited September 2023
    kle4 said:

    It felt longer.
    ...and yet everybody says it ends prematurely

    :):):):)
  • Carnyx said:

    Not acceptable at all. That would destroy whole swathes of central Edinburgh as functioning communities. Even you would complain if someone came along and declared ytour house a tourist area.

    Why would I?

    If my area became an area I wasn't happy with, I'd move.

    What's the problem?
  • It's also notable that, as is often the case, none of this is Musk's fault. It's all someone else's fault. He has made no mistakes; the fall in revenue is nothing to do with him, but all the fault of all these awful people.
    It’s clearly true that there was an orchestrated campaign to boycott Twitter and pressure was placed on advertisers. The revenue decline wasn’t organic.
  • I hate to say that this story gives me ideas:

    "Florida man arrested after trying to cross Atlantic in hamster wheel vessel"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66733230
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited September 2023
    Farooq said:

    As long as there are affordable options for people who want to be away from the anxiety and noise, then yes, why should I care? Homes are not fungible so it makes sense for people to want a certain amount of control over their immediate environment.
    Just to explain: I don't live in central Edinburgh. So no skin off my nose personally, and it's a complete waste of time for Barty to give his knee-jerk response of NIMBY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But friends and colleagues do live there. And I'm horrified.
  • On topic, Part 2:


    Bot
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited September 2023
    viewcode said:

    ...and yet everybody says it ends prematurely

    :):):):)

    That's how astounding it is - feels longer than it is despite ending very swiftly!
  • Omnium said:

    You're right. It was all about deterrence. If there had been a significant naval action then the floodgates would have been opened.
    I think that is now the conventional view.

    Jellicoe might possibly have destroyed the German fleet at Jutland had he taken a chance, but there was no need to and the consequences had it gone wrong were unthinkable.

    As it was the German fleet was bottled up for the duration, which was fine for us, and contributed significantly to eventual success.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited September 2023

    Why would I?

    If my area became an area I wasn't happy with, I'd move.

    What's the problem?
    Right, imagine having to move. At your own expense. Miles away. At a time like nbow where the price has crashed and you are in negative equity, your mother is nearby to help out, your granny is nearby in a home, your children are at school, and ...

    Externalities, see. Libertarianism isn't all about tooling along an eight lane motorway someone else has mostly paid for.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672

    Don't voters in Scotland cast separate votes for MSP by constituency AND region? And have been doing so over number of elections?

    Which would seem to go a looooooooong way in explaining polling differences, since many voters are used to voting for one party's candidate at constituency level, but another at regional level.

    And may well be planning to do so again at next GE. Or doing so for the first time.
    Certainly. But how do you account for the same voters deciding to surge support by one method and crash it by another?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    It’s clearly true that there was an orchestrated campaign to boycott Twitter and pressure was placed on advertisers. The revenue decline wasn’t organic.
    And? Is it not OK if its not 'organic? Isn't X itself about helping people coordinate?

    He can be salty about it, sure, that's his right, but it comes down to a whinge people are mean about him and that's not very compelling.

    People try to put on pressure all the time, usually it fails.
  • It’s clearly true that there was an orchestrated campaign to boycott Twitter and pressure was placed on advertisers. The revenue decline wasn’t organic.
    Do you think Twitter's offer to advertisers post takeover was as good as it was beforehand?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724
    I just got a new job. Chap who bought my firm in April, it emerges, was making fast and loose with with £65m of the client account of the various firms he acquired. The SRA were investigating him when he bought my firm (a storied name in shipping law), and another one 2 months later, yet approved both sales. If you want “not fit for purpose” stories that one takes some beating,
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,292
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Just to explain: I don't live in central Edinburgh. So no skin off my nose personally, and it's a complete waste of time for Barty to give his knee-jerk response of NIMBY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But friends and colleagues do live there. And I'm horrified.
    Its their choice to live there, and its others choice to let short term or long term there. Free choice, free society.

    If you don't like your choices, make different choices. Don't complaain about the choices others are making.

    If you're opposed to zoning for tourism, then let any and every home that its owner wants to let out do so instead and let the free market resolve it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453

    I think that is now the conventional view.

    Jellicoe might possibly have destroyed the German fleet at Jutland had he taken a chance, but there was no need to and the consequences had it gone wrong were unthinkable.

    As it was the German fleet was bottled up for the duration, which was fine for us, and contributed significantly to eventual success.

    I think that the admiralty engaged in an improper cowardice. Perhaps it was seen to be right after the fact, but it was a shameful act.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    DougSeal said:

    I just got a new job. Chap who bought my firm in April, it emerges, was making fast and loose with with £65m of the client account of the various firms he acquired. The SRA were investigating him when he bought my firm (a storied name in shipping law), and another one 2 months later, yet approved both sales. If you want “not fit for purpose” stories that one takes some beating,

    Hmm. If they hadn't found him guilty (or whatever it is they do to blackball a chap), could they actually block him? Not guilty till ... But IANAE.
  • Carnyx said:

    Right, imagine having to move. At your own expense. Miles away. At a time like nbow where the price has crashed and you are in negative equity, your mother is nearby to help out, your granny is nearby in a home, your children are at school, and ...

    Externalities, see. Libertarianism isn't all about tooling along an eight lane motorway someone else has mostly paid for.
    If you choose to move, you have to handle the consequences of your choice, yes.

    If you choose not to, you have to handle the consequences of not doing so.

    Free choice is not freedom from consequence - and other people making noise (or letting others do so) in their own flat isn't an externality, its their own bloody flat. What did you expect when you moved into a flat FFS, that you were moving into a detached bungalow?
  • DougSeal said:

    I just got a new job. Chap who bought my firm in April, it emerges, was making fast and loose with with £65m of the client account of the various firms he acquired. The SRA were investigating him when he bought my firm (a storied name in shipping law), and another one 2 months later, yet approved both sales. If you want “not fit for purpose” stories that one takes some beating,

    I thought it £64 million.

    Saw that story on ROF.
  • DougSeal said:

    I just got a new job. Chap who bought my firm in April, it emerges, was making fast and loose with with £65m of the client account of the various firms he acquired. The SRA were investigating him when he bought my firm (a storied name in shipping law), and another one 2 months later, yet approved both sales. If you want “not fit for purpose” stories that one takes some beating,

    That's wonderful, Doug, not least because it confirms that despite all the obvious difficulties it is possible for a hard-working Seal to make it in business today.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,929

    I hate to say that this story gives me ideas:

    "Florida man arrested after trying to cross Atlantic in hamster wheel vessel"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66733230

    That hamster wheel is either photographed very close up or else is for a very large hamster. Where are Fathers Dougal and Ted when you need an opinion on an important matter?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    If you choose to move, you have to handle the consequences of your choice, yes.

    If you choose not to, you have to handle the consequences of not doing so.

    Free choice is not freedom from consequence - and other people making noise (or letting others do so) in their own flat isn't an externality, its their own bloody flat. What did you expect when you moved into a flat FFS, that you were moving into a detached bungalow?
    Because this AirBNB depopulation is a very new phenomenon. Free market, right? Your favourite free market.

  • It’s clearly true that there was an orchestrated campaign to boycott Twitter and pressure was placed on advertisers. The revenue decline wasn’t organic.
    Free speech and free assembly means people are free to orchestrate campaigns, yes.

    So what?

    Advertising isn't organic either, Twitter isn't organic. If you want organic, get into niche farming, don't run a free speech business as a free speech absolutist then cry that others said things you don't like.
  • kle4 said:

    And? Is it not OK if its not 'organic? Isn't X itself about helping people coordinate?

    He can be salty about it, sure, that's his right, but it comes down to a whinge people are mean about him and that's not very compelling.

    People try to put on pressure all the time, usually it fails.
    Is it not ok to put pressure on pressure groups?
  • Carnyx said:

    Because this AirBNB depopulation is a very new phenomenon. Free market, right? Your favourite free market.

    Life is all about change. Evolution happens.

    If the facts change, you need to handle them.

    You're free to make your own choices. Don't see any reason others can't do the same.
  • Is it not ok to put pressure on pressure groups?
    Seems like the only thing that's being done is broadcasting "look how good a job the ADL is doing and how much strength they wield, don't be like us and piss them off".

    I'm not entirely sure why the ADL would think someone they were campaigning about saying "its so unfair, this campaign hurt us" is something they should be disappointed about.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    I thought it £64 million.

    Saw that story on ROF.

    I thought it £64 million.

    Saw that story on ROF.
    The freezing order said £64,584,904.60. I was rounding up.

    I have deliberately chosen a firm that is never in RoF. The old shop has barely been out of it for 18-months. I want boring.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited September 2023

    Life is all about change. Evolution happens.

    If the facts change, you need to handle them.

    You're free to make your own choices. Don't see any reason others can't do the same.
    Deleted
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,100

    SNP leads by 9% in constituency VI for Holyrood.

    Holyrood Constituency VI (2-4 September):

    SNP 39% (+3)
    Labour 30% (-2)
    Conservative 16% (-3)
    Lib Dem 8% (–)
    Green 3% (+1)
    Reform 3% (+2)
    Alba 1% (–)
    Other 0% (–)

    Changes +/- 5-6 August


    Labour leads the SNP by 5% in regional VI for a Scottish parliamentary election.

    Holyrood Regional List VI (2-4 September):

    Labour 30% (–)
    SNP 25% (-4)
    Conservatives 15% (-3)
    Green 14% (+5)
    Lib Dems 9% (-1)
    Alba 4% (+2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1699455118276481170

    Those figures result in a workable Indy majority, but with Scottish Greens having double their seats - a real nightmare scenario given their track record as a junior partner/ influencer. 4% would put Alba close to 3 regional seats.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453

    Is it not ok to put pressure on pressure groups?
    Have you ever encountered a pressure group that has anything to say beyond their love of their leader?

    If the leader is Black and Female then it's just free money.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226

    It’s clearly true that there was an orchestrated campaign to boycott Twitter and pressure was placed on advertisers. The revenue decline wasn’t organic.
    Firstly, orchestrated boycotts are clearly legal.

    Secondly, who is doing the orchestrating? Who is the head of this (legal) conspiracy?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672



    I guess you have no plan to "stop all this in its tracks", aside from giving Russia what it wants of Ukraine (the Nick Palmer approach?)

    Disagreement is fine, but you shouldn't misrepresent me. I was on a platform with Jeremy Hunt denouncing the invasion and calling for support for Ukraine soon after it happened. I'm glad they were prevented from taking Kyiv and the west where literally almost nobody wants them. And thus I don't favour giving Russia Ukraine. But I favour encouraging a ceasefire on the current line.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,265
    "Will Post Office execs continue to be given bonuses for their Inquiry work?
    ....................................................................................................................................
    In other words, yes. Despite the massive outcry, the questions in parliament, the publication of two formal reports, the Chief Executive being forced into a series of grovelling and humiliating apologies, the Post Office is still offering bonuses to its staff for their work on the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry. Of course it is."

    https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/will-post-office-execs-continue-to-be-given-bonuses-for-their-inquiry-work/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672
    Pagan2 said:

    Perhaps he had a recipe for nick palmer he wanted to try out. In my case we were on foot and no fences between us...my own fault however wasnt a situation I expected
    Idly though of posting my wolf porn, but I see cut/paste of photos doesn't work. How does one post pix on PB?
  • Carnyx said:

    Helpful hint Viz style: your arguments re free "choice" would be a tad more convincing if you hadn't made the "choice" to pick the same username as one of the worst mass murdering, thieving and generally asocial libertarians in British maritime history.
    Oh bore on.

    Pirates are fun.

    I put some thought into the name I chose. The pirate I chose the name of is quite an interesting one of note, who is famous for amongst other things coming up with a pirate code and has inspired much of fiction, including Dread Pirate Roberts, being referenced in Treasure Island and so on. The oft-referenced to the code that 'is more guidelines than actual rules' was created by Roberts in PotC too.

    I'm not ashamed of my choice. Any such murder was hundreds of years ago and pirates have become fun since then and I stand by that. Get a sense of humour if you're that prickly over stuff centuries ago.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,100
    Farooq said:

    History. The last few Holyrood elections have shown the SNP list votes are a bit of a waste, with them sweeping a lot of constituencies.

    SNP constituency voters are saying they might vote Green to maximise pro-Indy MSPs. That will comprise people with SNP VI and people who would prefer Green but know they might not stand in their constituency.

    If your main aim is indy, it's a no brainer to pick SNP/Green in the constituency/list.
    Not necessarily - a couple of points swing to Alba (I know, I know) could increase the Indy side by a few more seats and reduce Green influence. That would make for interesting times…
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,284
    On topic, let's consider the 1992 election and polling in the run up to it:
    Labour's peak lead mid-term was comparable to Starmer's now, but within 18 months of the election things were neck and neck.

    We are now, at most, under 17 months from the next election. More likely closer to 12. And there is no sign of anything similar happening. The government is stumbling from crisis to crisis without any clear alternative narrative.

    Starmer enthuses very few people, but he scares even fewer. He been ruthless in removing the far-left from his team, while being very careful about too many spending pledges. The absence of fear is key: if everyone agrees the Tories are useless, then why not give the other lot a chance if they appear mostly harmless?

    What the Tories did in Uxbridge was find something (ULEZ) that motivated the fear response, which was likely decisive in a close race.

    So unless the Tories can nail Starmer over something that gets national attention, my view is they are toast. I expect a surprisingly sizable Labour majority.
  • Disagreement is fine, but you shouldn't misrepresent me. I was on a platform with Jeremy Hunt denouncing the invasion and calling for support for Ukraine soon after it happened. I'm glad they were prevented from taking Kyiv and the west where literally almost nobody wants them. And thus I don't favour giving Russia Ukraine. But I favour encouraging a ceasefire on the current line.
    I'm not sure I'm misrepresenting you. Your position was that the areas Russia had invaded should have a referendum. When the stupidity of that position was pointed out, you recently said that a peace deal should give Russia the areas they have (*) without a referendum.

    "But I favour encouraging a ceasefire on the current line."

    That's *exactly* giving Russia what they want at the moment. A pause to rearm and prepare.

    (*) Without stating whether that's the area they control, or the areas they *claim* in the rather interesting laws they passed.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,929
    rcs1000 said:

    Firstly, orchestrated boycotts are clearly legal.

    Secondly, who is doing the orchestrating? Who is the head of this (legal) conspiracy?
    Twitter lives on advertising, advertisers are essentially lying manipulators, E Musk is excellent at self publicity and does well out of advertising. They all richly deserve each other.

    When Twitter dies we can all go back to writing letters and speaking via cocoa tins with string. Little will be lost.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,128
    algarkirk said:

    That hamster wheel is either photographed very close up or else is for a very large hamster. Where are Fathers Dougal and Ted when you need an opinion on an important matter?
    I believe that would be an ecumenical matter.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672

    I'm not sure I'm misrepresenting you. Your position was that the areas Russia had invaded should have a referendum. When the stupidity of that position was pointed out, you recently said that a peace deal should give Russia the areas they have (*) without a referendum.

    "But I favour encouraging a ceasefire on the current line."

    That's *exactly* giving Russia what they want at the moment. A pause to rearm and prepare.

    (*) Without stating whether that's the area they control, or the areas they *claim* in the rather interesting laws they passed.
    No, I favour a referendum in each area as the long-term outcome, as in Slesvig-Holstein. There is, as I've said, an argument about whether people who've fled or arrived get to vote in the new or old place. But anyway it's clearly a long way to agreement on that. In the meantime, I favour a ceaasefire on the current line.with Ukraine allowed to join NATO so that we can guarantee no further incursion without triggering WW3.
  • ...

    Read that as Jeremy Hunt bidding for a place in prison...
    I doubt they'd have him.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Because this AirBNB depopulation is a very new phenomenon. Free market, right? Your favourite free market.

    The reality as I see it is that the built environment is becoming more and more regulated in almost every sphere, it is vanishingly unlikely that it will move towards any kind of 'free market' situation as desired above. Any new 'freedom' comes with conditions that are more arduous than what existed previously. The process just seems to be inexorable.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,929

    Idly though of posting my wolf porn, but I see cut/paste of photos doesn't work. How does one post pix on PB?
    Speaking of wolves, Matt a few days ago:

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1697642598037438930

    and while we are there, today's offering:

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1699457734255534268

  • darkage said:

    The reality as I see it is that the built environment is becoming more and more regulated in almost every sphere, it is vanishingly unlikely that it will move towards any kind of 'free market' situation as desired above. Any new 'freedom' comes with conditions that are more arduous than what existed previously. The process just seems to be inexorable.
    That's what's being pushed at the moment - there will undoubtedly be an equal and opposite reaction, and an adjustment will follow.

    As with the deposit return scheme, and the alcohol advertising legislation, this is another piece of fucked up freedom-hating economy-destroying legislation from the Scottish Government, who are currently flushing themselves down the loo with grim determination.
  • No, I favour a referendum in each area as the long-term outcome, as in Slesvig-Holstein. There is, as I've said, an argument about whether people who've fled or arrived get to vote in the new or old place. But anyway it's clearly a long way to agreement on that. In the meantime, I favour a ceaasefire on the current line.with Ukraine allowed to join NATO so that we can guarantee no further incursion without triggering WW3.
    But holding a referendum now is pointless, because Russia can import 'Russian' people, and ethnic cleanse anyone they don't like into the heart of Russia. At best. Talk of a 'referendum' is basically shorthand for 'let Russia have it', as there's zero chance of it being free and fair.

    Nick, your position on this conflict has always been poor, from saying we should not 'poke' Russia into invading, to blaming NATO's eastwards expansion, to Ukrainian Nazis, to Bandera. I see lots of soft pro=Russian views, but absolutely no concern for the Ukrainians who are being put through Hell because of their invasion by a fascist, imperialist state.

    You may want to read the thread I posted earlier this evening, then ask how, with good conscience, you can ask to subject Ukrainians to Russian mistreatment.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,416
    Well twitter, or X, or whatever it is seems to not be working as tweets aren’t loading.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099
    eek said:

    Pointing out that the adverts your company is spending money on are alongside things you don't want to be associated with is a useful warning for many companies.

    Got to say that the only adverts I see on Twitter are drop ship scams, Crypto scams and more recently people trying to get newsletter signups so they can then sell you their scams...
    I get weird adverts.

    It's like Ronco for the gullible.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Disagreement is fine, but you shouldn't misrepresent me. I was on a platform with Jeremy Hunt denouncing the invasion and calling for support for Ukraine soon after it happened. I'm glad they were prevented from taking Kyiv and the west where literally almost nobody wants them. And thus I don't favour giving Russia Ukraine. But I favour encouraging a ceasefire on the current line.
    The situation in Ukraine seems to be one which a lot of active posters behave in a tribal way, you have to agree completely with them or else you are out of the tribe. This just prevents useful discussion of it, it is true for other areas as well. If you think in this way - complete victory or nothing, good vs evil, light vs dark... then you aren't really going to develop much real insight in to issues, or be very good at predicting what is going to happen in the world.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    Under the current school rebuilding programme, only 4 schools have been completed in the last two years. If we continue at the same rate, all 22,000 schools should be finished in just over 11,000 years time
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924


    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    Under the current school rebuilding programme, only 4 schools have been completed in the last two years. If we continue at the same rate, all 22,000 schools should be finished in just over 11,000 years time

    Coincidentally that is about the time when the Tories are due back in Government
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Taz said:

    Well twitter, or X, or whatever it is seems to not be working as tweets aren’t loading.

    They are I just posted a parody pm one about 30 seconds ago
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,128

    Idly though of posting my wolf porn...

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Your what???

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    That's what's being pushed at the moment - there will undoubtedly be an equal and opposite reaction, and an adjustment will follow.

    As with the deposit return scheme, and the alcohol advertising legislation, this is another piece of fucked up freedom-hating economy-destroying legislation from the Scottish Government, who are currently flushing themselves down the loo with grim determination.
    It isn't totally impossible, but I just think it is highly improbable in the foreseeable future. There is a rapidly increasing amount of regulation in almost every sphere. All attempts to stop this trend have been shelved - and this is a conservative government that claimed to be in favour of deregulation.
  • darkage said:

    The situation in Ukraine seems to be one which a lot of active posters behave in a tribal way, you have to agree completely with them or else you are out of the tribe. This just prevents useful discussion of it, it is true for other areas as well. If you think in this way - complete victory or nothing, good vs evil, light vs dark... then you aren't really going to develop much real insight in to issues, or be very good at predicting what is going to happen in the world.
    Light or dark exists. Shining a light, or turning lights on is real. Darkness is real, and there's times and places for it.

    Good and evil are real too.

    Putin's invasion is evil. That's not outrageous to say, its true. Read the stories linked above, it is brutal, it is bloody, it is wrong and it is evil.

    If your response to evil happening is to say "oh well 🤷‍♂️" then that's your choice. But others disagreeing are perfectly within their rights to disagree.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099
    Ratters said:

    On topic, let's consider the 1992 election and polling in the run up to it:
    Labour's peak lead mid-term was comparable to Starmer's now, but within 18 months of the election things were neck and neck.

    We are now, at most, under 17 months from the next election. More likely closer to 12. And there is no sign of anything similar happening. The government is stumbling from crisis to crisis without any clear alternative narrative.

    Starmer enthuses very few people, but he scares even fewer. He been ruthless in removing the far-left from his team, while being very careful about too many spending pledges. The absence of fear is key: if everyone agrees the Tories are useless, then why not give the other lot a chance if they appear mostly harmless?

    What the Tories did in Uxbridge was find something (ULEZ) that motivated the fear response, which was likely decisive in a close race.

    So unless the Tories can nail Starmer over something that gets national attention, my view is they are toast. I expect a surprisingly sizable Labour majority.

    That graph is quite instructive. Dumping the increasingly toxic Thatcher and her hated Poll tax, on favour of the bland, charisma free Major* switched the poll lead to a photo finish.

    The Tories have now ditched 2 Prime Ministers this Parliament, with negligible effect. The writing is on the wall for Sunak.

    *bland, charisma free, facing down his head bangers and frightening no one. The Tory Starmer?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,254
    edited September 2023
    While I was reading about ancient local monuments yesterday, I kept noticing the name of an archaeologist who seems to have written about all of them. He shares the same name as one of my near neighbours

    Funnily enough I had a parcel to deliver to him today, and it turns out he is the very same archaeologist I was reading about yesterday! We had a nice chat about the local sites, about my recent trip to Carnac, and about how I should buy his book from the shop at Avebury or Stonehenge when I walk to them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    While I was reading about ancient local monuments yesterday, I kept noticing the name of an archaeologist who seems to have written about all of them. He shares the same as one of my near neighbours

    Funnily enough I had a parcel to deliver to him today, and it turns out he is the very same archaeologist I was reading about yesterday! We had a nice chat about the local sites, about my recent trip to Carnac, and about how I should buy his book from the shop at Avebury or Stonehenge when I walk to them

    No freebie for a neighbour? He's no fool.
  • Foxy said:

    That graph is quite instructive. Dumping the increasingly toxic Thatcher and her hated Poll tax, on favour of the bland, charisma free Major* switched the poll lead to a photo finish.

    The Tories have now ditched 2 Prime Ministers this Parliament, with negligible effect. The writing is on the wall for Sunak.

    *bland, charisma free, facing down his head bangers and frightening no one. The Tory Starmer?
    Though even before Major arrived on the scene, the gap was closing steadily through Summer 1990. Amazing, really.

    But amazing things do happen. And next year either the Conservatives will claw back their position starting now to deny Labour a majority (pretty amazing) or Labour will overturn a big Conservative majority and replace it with one of their own (also pretty amazing).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453
    It's fine. Really it's fine. Nobody thinks or says anything.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,144
    edited September 2023

    I suppose they are tropes in the strictest definition, so I am glad you recognise as such, viz, a significant or recurrent theme. In Labour's case it is a significant or recurrent theme that they always fuck the economy. No significant organisation would ever put a bunch of lower middle managers in executive positions. That is what the country does, each time they put Labour in government.
    Considering your team has been in government twice as long as anyone else, I don't see that they come out smelling of roses on the economy. In 1964 things were bad. Wilson's mistake was he didn't devalue sooner, much sooner. There is some good work by Cairncross's daughter (Frances) on this. 1979 was chaos, but anecdotally Heath's bequeathed legacy in 1974 hadn't been much better. Throughout Thatcher and Major's premierships we lurched from boom to bust and back again. The new Labour years were relatively benign and economic growth was better than it has been since. The 2008 world credit crisis has been styled as of Gordon Brown's making, and the rules are the incumbent takes the blame for a crisis on their watch. Liam Byrne's letter didn't help.

    How has the economy fared since your government committed economic hara kiri in 2016?

    And regards to Birmingham, which has a legacy issue of equal pay to contend with, remind me of the several Conservative authorities who have gone through the hoop in the last 5 years.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672
    viewcode said:

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Your what???

    A good thing I'm not still an MP, eh? I claimed earlier that I had a picture of a wolf looking fondly at me, and wanted to show it. But I'm not sure how to post jpgs here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    But holding a referendum now is pointless, because Russia can import 'Russian' people, and ethnic cleanse anyone they don't like into the heart of Russia. At best. Talk of a 'referendum' is basically shorthand for 'let Russia have it', as there's zero chance of it being free and fair.

    Nick, your position on this conflict has always been poor, from saying we should not 'poke' Russia into invading, to blaming NATO's eastwards expansion, to Ukrainian Nazis, to Bandera. I see lots of soft pro=Russian views, but absolutely no concern for the Ukrainians who are being put through Hell because of their invasion by a fascist, imperialist state.

    You may want to read the thread I posted earlier this evening, then ask how, with good conscience, you can ask to subject Ukrainians to Russian mistreatment.
    Ukraine may well be forced to a ceasefire at some point, leaving a lot of territory and people in Russian hands, but whilst there's some people who are rather flippant about any risks of escalation, there are a larger group of people who seem so keen for 'peace' (or rather, returning to a cold war), that that is worth any cost. That 'peace' now must automatically be better than fighting now. In essence, that no situation of fighting can be worth doing. I think even us armchair generals would say no one can really judge when fighting on is unsustainable other than those doing the fighting, but the implication seems to be that Ukraine being aided to do so is instinctively wrong because fighting is wrong.

    I also don't quite understand the idea of 'ceasefire on the current line with Uraine allowed to join NATO'. For one, surely that makes it a permanent settlement since it would mean that Ukraine could never try to take back the rest of its territory (it's solely focused on assuming it prevents more Russian gains) since that would entail a NATO member launching massive strikes against Russian forces as the 'aggressor'. When would the rest of NATO agree to that, and if they might why would Russia agree to such a deal?

    For another, ceasefire on those lines would not settle the actual claims of both Russia and Ukraine, which would mean there was still a territorial dispute. Which surely means they couldn't join NATO since that was part of why the Russian propaganda about if only Ukraine had promised to never join NATO (ie, give up control of their own foreign policy) made no sense, since it was never going to happen whilst Crimea and the Donbas was occupied.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    viewcode said:

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Your what???

    I think we're ready for another astounding NickPalmer confession story.
  • Though even before Major arrived on the scene, the gap was closing steadily through Summer 1990. Amazing, really.

    But amazing things do happen. And next year either the Conservatives will claw back their position starting now to deny Labour a majority (pretty amazing) or Labour will overturn a big Conservative majority and replace it with one of their own (also pretty amazing).
    Is Penny Mordaunt using facial expressions to communicate a leadership bid?

    https://x.com/bestforbritain/status/1699404670232318422
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099
    "This is simply an extraordinary study. Researchers gave $7,500 (CAD) to homeless people in Vancouver. The result? The program *saved* money. It helped many of them to move into housing faster, which saved the shelter system $8,277 per person. 🧵👇"

    https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1699406128902447476?t=yurXMnjbMDsfAOV8yEz25Q&s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099

    Is Penny Mordaunt using facial expressions to communicate a leadership bid?

    https://x.com/bestforbritain/status/1699404670232318422
    Or just wondering what to do when her P45 comes in a years time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,099
    edited September 2023

    Considering your team has been in government twice as long as anyone else, I don't see that they come out smelling of roses on the economy. In 1964 things were bad. Wilson's mistake was he didn't devalue sooner, much sooner. There is some good work by Cairncross's daughter (Frances) on this. 1979 was chaos, but anecdotally Heath's bequeathed legacy in 1974 hadn't been much better. Throughout Thatcher and Major's premierships we lurched from boom to bust and back again. The new Labour years were relatively benign and economic growth was better than it has been since. The 2008 world credit crisis has been styled as of Gordon Brown's making, and the rules are the incumbent takes the blame for a crisis on their watch. Liam Byrne's letter didn't help.

    How has the economy fared since your government committed economic hara kiri in 2016?

    And regards to Birmingham, which has a legacy issue of equal pay to contend with, remind me of the several Conservative authorities who have gone through the hoop in the last 5 years.
    Also note that Brum was a Tory/LD Council 2003-12, the time of the equal pay case.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,647
    Foxy said:

    "This is simply an extraordinary study. Researchers gave $7,500 (CAD) to homeless people in Vancouver. The result? The program *saved* money. It helped many of them to move into housing faster, which saved the shelter system $8,277 per person. 🧵👇"

    https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1699406128902447476?t=yurXMnjbMDsfAOV8yEz25Q&s=19

    An arbitrary selection of homeless people, or a cherrypicked group of those most likely to succeed? Good news either way, but rather different things.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    rcs1000 said:

    Firstly, orchestrated boycotts are clearly legal.

    Secondly, who is doing the orchestrating? Who is the head of this (legal) conspiracy?
    Elon Musk?

    "I hate advertising"
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1188890479401689088?lang=en

    Wasn't one of the first tweets he posted after taking over twitter some rightwing conspiracy theory about Paul Pelosi? No doubt Jewish people made him do that too. What an arse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Is Penny Mordaunt using facial expressions to communicate a leadership bid?

    https://x.com/bestforbritain/status/1699404670232318422
    I think she's communicating that she doesn't think she will be in the Commons for much longer.
  • The Mirror
    @DailyMirror

    Woman jailed for nurse sex assault groped female guards as they served her food
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/prisoner-jailed-nurse-sex-assault-30877302


    https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/1699424362669940860

    SexXY woman
This discussion has been closed.