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  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    Shellacking confirmed.
    It's actually pretty much the same ball park - and Labour think Murphy will bring it back for them - I'm not so sure.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    crisis north of the border - Ed a big challenge...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    david_herdson said:

    chestnut said:

    Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 43%
    LAB - 27%
    CON - 15%
    LDEM - 4%

    So almost exactly in line with the Scottish subsamples recently?
    I'm going to dig up some old posts about this.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland
    How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17)
    Total Trust: 15% (25%)
    Total not Trust: 80% (67%

  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.

    Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?

    What we need is a Tory lead in the Yougov/Sun poll due anytime now, to mix things up nicely ahead of Stephen Fisher's weekly GE Seats projection tomorrow.
  • JPJ2
    JPJ2 Posts: 380
    I will happily settle for 47 SNP seats, 54 was just being greedy :-)

  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2014
    .

  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Tykejohnno said:

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.

    And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

    Greetings!

    What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
    One of the nicest holidays I ever had with my partner was a B&B a few dozen yards from the bridge. Wet long weekend exploring the area on foot - not just the museums but the other relics and traces such as canals, railways and inclines, and Buildwas Abbey. Our favourite find was the garden walls made of pottery saggars (the chamber pot like receptacles used to hold fine china during the kilning).

  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited October 2014
    felix said:



    Yes - cue roger and the rest - the fight back begins!

    Yeah. I do actually think the combination of factors this week was uniquelyawful - it should be closer once we've actually got a Scottish leader again.

    Now where's that YG? Suspect it'll be back to a 1-point lead - the Scottish bit will be down for a start.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited October 2014
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.

    Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?

    What we need is a Tory lead in the Yougov/Sun poll due anytime now, to mix things up nicely ahead of Stephen Fisher's weekly GE Seats projection tomorrow.
    I don't think either Ed or Dave can win, but I don't want to lay Dave at 6.0.

    Surely Lay Labour is "the bet". I've done it for -£245/+£100 today anyway.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin

    Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    It's the answer to life and the universe - what could be wrong?
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    Obviously you let the side down by not voting 42 times.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    felix said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.

    And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
    Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    david_herdson said:

    So almost exactly in line with the Scottish subsamples recently?

    Yes.

    I believe the Survation/Panelbase polls previously were too soon after the referendum to capture what was really going on and the fall out from the rest of the Uk's reaction.

    Since then Ed's conference speech and the Johann Lamont knifing have further dragged Labour down.

    SNP home and dry North of the Border for 2015.


  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Iain Dale @IainDale
    @schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...

    Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
    Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    New Thread
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The Yougov poll looks more accurate to me, 6% looked a touch high for the Lib Dems in Scotland on the IPSOS poll.

    4% is more comfortable given how much I'm betting against them in Scotland.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    MarkHopkins said:

    .

    It REALLY upset La Lipman that bacon sandwich didn't it?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Is this a wake?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
  • Hugh
    Hugh Posts: 955
    PBTories only just realised that politics in Scotland didn't suddenly stop (as their interest in Scotland did) after the No vote I see.

    "always wrong, never learn".
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build

    I seriously doubt it - I really think Scotland is another country now and the inevitable turmoil between now and the GE will be very fertile ground for the SNP. Labour have nothing to offer Scotland or the UK for that matter.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    peter_from_putney said:

    felix said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.

    And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
    Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
    It says Scotland is another country I think - sad but true.
  • Hugh
    Hugh Posts: 955
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build

    I seriously doubt it - I really think Scotland is another country now and the inevitable turmoil between now and the GE will be very fertile ground for the SNP. Labour have nothing to offer Scotland or the UK for that matter.
    What does the Conservative and Unionist Party offer Scotland?
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    Shellacking confirmed.
    I can't help but think that in the current weird electoral system where people increasingly vote to stop an outcome almost as often as they vote for one, and within the context of 650 separate competitions where the leading competitors are perceived to vary from one seat to another, that traditional polling based on 1000 or so respondents is increasingly meaningless.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    No Holyrood VI poll? Probably for the best.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    That Murphy rating is actually pretty bad, Lamont got 37% in the same question last month.
  • Hugh
    Hugh Posts: 955
    felix said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    felix said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.

    And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
    Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
    It says Scotland is another country I think - sad but true.
    It says that Scots have their heads screwed on far more than a load of dull Southern English Tory City Boys who troll betting sites looking for money to waste...
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    arryLime1982 ‏@HarryLime1982 2m2 minutes ago
    @Bonn1eGreer Desperate times for Labour. But seriously, who would trust Cameron more than Miliband? Shows how ineffective Ed is.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Possibly, they'll just have to form one Unionist Party, in Scotland, to oppose the SNP.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Out of the ashes perhaps some good news.......

    Gordon might be persuaded to pick up the batton....

    I am not a fan of Murphy. His views on Israel are very similar to those of Maureen Lipman but with more dubious motives

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Spit? Urgh. Behaviour I only tolerate in camels. And then under duress.

    I'd be surprised if you can find someone more liberally minded than me. And I mean open-minded, but not PC. It's a rare day when something genuinely offends me.
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Plato said:

    When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.

    If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.

    felix said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Sean_F said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Sean_F said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    i find it unusual that someone would spit at someone simply for not sharing their sense of humour
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.

    The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?

    Our 'stop getting excited at the sub samples' policy is a bit blown out of the water
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    new thread
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hugh said:

    felix said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    felix said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.

    And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
    Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
    It says Scotland is another country I think - sad but true.
    It says that Scots have their heads screwed on far more than a load of dull Southern English Tory City Boys who troll betting sites looking for money to waste...
    As SNP MPs do not vote in Westminster it would in effect give an answer to the WLQ; and make a Tory minority government (with an effective majority on English matters) a more likely prospect.
  • valleyboy
    valleyboy Posts: 606
    On reflection perhaps we should not be surprised by the Scottish figures. I wonder if Plaid will get an uplift now the spectre of Independence has gone for the foreseeable.
    Canvassing over the next few weeks will be interesting, that's for sure. I will report any interesting trend, with betting possibilities.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2014
    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    antifrank said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago
    To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...

    That's rather witty - hope the good news didn't ruin Ed's after- dinner digestif...
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    asjohnstone said:



    NI Unionists 9
    Ni Republicans 8

    Who gets the 18th NI seat?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Ouchastic.

    Blimey.
    Tykejohnno said:


    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland
    How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17)
    Total Trust: 15% (25%)
    Total not Trust: 80% (67%

  • Harris_Tweed
    Harris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

    Greetings!

    What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
    Still there, apart from the odd slippage of the Gorge towards the Severn :)

    I hear (in the past few weeks.. not today) that red and blue are waiting for both Telford & Wrekin by-elections with slightly baited breath.

    On the face of it, they're safe enough holds.. one each.

    But Newport is clouded by a long-running supermarket planning feud, and there's a locally-prominent town councillor standing as an independent.

    And UKIP will make both a bit murky. It doesn't feel like a Carswell-style landslide, but they've become a lot more prominent locally since the last election - a nearby UKIP parish councillor getting to Brussels, and and fairly noisy group of campaigners (though only successful on parishes so far).

    As someone else said up-thread, the guy who died in Ironbridge was well-liked which will probably help Labour over the line.

    But who knows in small local seats with unpredictable turnouts and new candidates?
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Carnyx said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

    Greetings!

    What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
    One of the nicest holidays I ever had with my partner was a B&B a few dozen yards from the bridge. Wet long weekend exploring the area on foot - not just the museums but the other relics and traces such as canals, railways and inclines, and Buildwas Abbey. Our favourite find was the garden walls made of pottery saggars (the chamber pot like receptacles used to hold fine china during the kilning).

    I have Saggars in the wall at the bottom of the garden :)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    No-one from UKIP on QT??
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    First Tory lead by any Pollster for over three weeks...
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Bang on the money with that assessment, meanwhile the 45's are currently so grievance laden its a wonder they can carry the load on their backs right now.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Good Man. I will take that.

    TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?

    I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
    I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
    Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?
    I conducted my own focus groups (I've been in the places that overwhelmingly voted for the Union a few weeks ago)

    I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.
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