What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.
Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?
What we need is a Tory lead in the Yougov/Sun poll due anytime now, to mix things up nicely ahead of Stephen Fisher's weekly GE Seats projection tomorrow.
On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
Greetings!
What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
One of the nicest holidays I ever had with my partner was a B&B a few dozen yards from the bridge. Wet long weekend exploring the area on foot - not just the museums but the other relics and traces such as canals, railways and inclines, and Buildwas Abbey. Our favourite find was the garden walls made of pottery saggars (the chamber pot like receptacles used to hold fine china during the kilning).
Yes - cue roger and the rest - the fight back begins!
Yeah. I do actually think the combination of factors this week was uniquelyawful - it should be closer once we've actually got a Scottish leader again.
Now where's that YG? Suspect it'll be back to a 1-point lead - the Scottish bit will be down for a start.
What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.
Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?
What we need is a Tory lead in the Yougov/Sun poll due anytime now, to mix things up nicely ahead of Stephen Fisher's weekly GE Seats projection tomorrow.
I don't think either Ed or Dave can win, but I don't want to lay Dave at 6.0.
Surely Lay Labour is "the bet". I've done it for -£245/+£100 today anyway.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Am I responsible for low turnout?
Obviously you let the side down by not voting 42 times.
So almost exactly in line with the Scottish subsamples recently?
Yes.
I believe the Survation/Panelbase polls previously were too soon after the referendum to capture what was really going on and the fall out from the rest of the Uk's reaction.
Since then Ed's conference speech and the Johann Lamont knifing have further dragged Labour down.
felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build
felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build
I seriously doubt it - I really think Scotland is another country now and the inevitable turmoil between now and the GE will be very fertile ground for the SNP. Labour have nothing to offer Scotland or the UK for that matter.
felix That is not a bad result for Murphy at this stage with Labour at such a low ebb, and once the Sturgeon honeymoon ends he will have a solid platform on which to build
I seriously doubt it - I really think Scotland is another country now and the inevitable turmoil between now and the GE will be very fertile ground for the SNP. Labour have nothing to offer Scotland or the UK for that matter.
What does the Conservative and Unionist Party offer Scotland?
Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll SNP: 43% (47 seats) Labour: 27% (10 seats) C: 15% (1 seat) LD: 4% (1 seat) 1,078 adults Oct 27-30
Shellacking confirmed.
I can't help but think that in the current weird electoral system where people increasingly vote to stop an outcome almost as often as they vote for one, and within the context of 650 separate competitions where the leading competitors are perceived to vary from one seat to another, that traditional polling based on 1000 or so respondents is increasingly meaningless.
Times/YouGov Scotland: How much do you trust: Nicola Sturgeon: 48% Gordon Brown: 37% Jim Murphy: 24% David Cameron: 19% Ed Miliband: 15%
Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.
And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
It says Scotland is another country I think - sad but true.
It says that Scots have their heads screwed on far more than a load of dull Southern English Tory City Boys who troll betting sites looking for money to waste...
arryLime1982 @HarryLime1982 2m2 minutes ago @Bonn1eGreer Desperate times for Labour. But seriously, who would trust Cameron more than Miliband? Shows how ineffective Ed is.
Spit? Urgh. Behaviour I only tolerate in camels. And then under duress.
I'd be surprised if you can find someone more liberally minded than me. And I mean open-minded, but not PC. It's a rare day when something genuinely offends me.
When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.
Times/YouGov Scotland: How much do you trust: Nicola Sturgeon: 48% Gordon Brown: 37% Jim Murphy: 24% David Cameron: 19% Ed Miliband: 15%
Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.
And Murphy only 5 % ahead of Cameron!
Yep, but Gordon TWICE as trustworthy as Dave - says it all really, doesn't it?
It says Scotland is another country I think - sad but true.
It says that Scots have their heads screwed on far more than a load of dull Southern English Tory City Boys who troll betting sites looking for money to waste...
As SNP MPs do not vote in Westminster it would in effect give an answer to the WLQ; and make a Tory minority government (with an effective majority on English matters) a more likely prospect.
On reflection perhaps we should not be surprised by the Scottish figures. I wonder if Plaid will get an uplift now the spectre of Independence has gone for the foreseeable. Canvassing over the next few weeks will be interesting, that's for sure. I will report any interesting trend, with betting possibilities.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...
That's rather witty - hope the good news didn't ruin Ed's after- dinner digestif...
On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
Greetings!
What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
Still there, apart from the odd slippage of the Gorge towards the Severn
I hear (in the past few weeks.. not today) that red and blue are waiting for both Telford & Wrekin by-elections with slightly baited breath.
On the face of it, they're safe enough holds.. one each.
But Newport is clouded by a long-running supermarket planning feud, and there's a locally-prominent town councillor standing as an independent.
And UKIP will make both a bit murky. It doesn't feel like a Carswell-style landslide, but they've become a lot more prominent locally since the last election - a nearby UKIP parish councillor getting to Brussels, and and fairly noisy group of campaigners (though only successful on parishes so far).
As someone else said up-thread, the guy who died in Ironbridge was well-liked which will probably help Labour over the line.
But who knows in small local seats with unpredictable turnouts and new candidates?
On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
Greetings!
What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
One of the nicest holidays I ever had with my partner was a B&B a few dozen yards from the bridge. Wet long weekend exploring the area on foot - not just the museums but the other relics and traces such as canals, railways and inclines, and Buildwas Abbey. Our favourite find was the garden walls made of pottery saggars (the chamber pot like receptacles used to hold fine china during the kilning).
I have Saggars in the wall at the bottom of the garden
Bang on the money with that assessment, meanwhile the 45's are currently so grievance laden its a wonder they can carry the load on their backs right now.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
Vote Dave, get Ed.
Good Man. I will take that.
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?
I conducted my own focus groups (I've been in the places that overwhelmingly voted for the Union a few weeks ago)
I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.
Comments
9 LAB Gains in 9 hours
Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Times/YouGov Scotland
How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17)
Total Trust: 15% (25%)
Total not Trust: 80% (67%
Now where's that YG? Suspect it'll be back to a 1-point lead - the Scottish bit will be down for a start.
Surely Lay Labour is "the bet". I've done it for -£245/+£100 today anyway.
Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?
I believe the Survation/Panelbase polls previously were too soon after the referendum to capture what was really going on and the fall out from the rest of the Uk's reaction.
Since then Ed's conference speech and the Johann Lamont knifing have further dragged Labour down.
SNP home and dry North of the Border for 2015.
@schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...
Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?
4% is more comfortable given how much I'm betting against them in Scotland.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
"always wrong, never learn".
@Bonn1eGreer Desperate times for Labour. But seriously, who would trust Cameron more than Miliband? Shows how ineffective Ed is.
Gordon might be persuaded to pick up the batton....
I am not a fan of Murphy. His views on Israel are very similar to those of Maureen Lipman but with more dubious motives
I'd be surprised if you can find someone more liberally minded than me. And I mean open-minded, but not PC. It's a rare day when something genuinely offends me.
Canvassing over the next few weeks will be interesting, that's for sure. I will report any interesting trend, with betting possibilities.
Blimey.
I hear (in the past few weeks.. not today) that red and blue are waiting for both Telford & Wrekin by-elections with slightly baited breath.
On the face of it, they're safe enough holds.. one each.
But Newport is clouded by a long-running supermarket planning feud, and there's a locally-prominent town councillor standing as an independent.
And UKIP will make both a bit murky. It doesn't feel like a Carswell-style landslide, but they've become a lot more prominent locally since the last election - a nearby UKIP parish councillor getting to Brussels, and and fairly noisy group of campaigners (though only successful on parishes so far).
As someone else said up-thread, the guy who died in Ironbridge was well-liked which will probably help Labour over the line.
But who knows in small local seats with unpredictable turnouts and new candidates?