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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

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  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    "Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
    At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."

    So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
  • Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.

    Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
    I'm struggling to forecast an election

    1) Conducted under supplementary vote

    2) With a turnout of around 12%
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    Oh and you're depressed because of the poll earlier in case you forgot:)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Roger said:

    "Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
    At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."

    So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland

    £20 at evens. SNP lead.
  • felix said:

    Toms said:

    A seasonal comment, but not topical:
    Apparently the carving of Halloween turnips is a tradition in Ireland.

    http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/october/turnip-lanterns.html

    I wonder, were they used to ward off spirits?

    I used to have a turnip lantern every Halloween when I was young here in the north east. I hadn't even seen a pumpkin until I was in my twenties.
    Ditto in Sunderland.

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    Your point being Reggie?

    Old Compton St is the main thoroughfare of London's gay quarter - you have been there haven't you, being a proper nawty Cockernee and all that, me old China.


    I am certainly not a Cockney, Mr Watcher. Did you not find the "gay old time" and "Mr Ali" comments rather sinister?
    Oh dear bobafett - continually changing your ID has got you all muddled. Our leftie friend roger thinks Old Compton street is a typical London street from which Labour will stride to victory in 2015 overwhelming the tartan army/middle england kippers and any other pervs who might challenge them. As a gay man myself I'm allowed the gay reference, no need to get me arrested and hauled off to the cells old boy.
    There seems to be an extraordinary group on here who choose to use their time referring to me by a range of Christian names from Reginald to Robert. If you wish to reveal your true identity then please do so. My choice is to remain as Scout. If you do want to reveal your identity please go ahead, but I do not see why you wish to browbeat others into doing so
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I'm thinking the Times would have plugged it more if it was terrible for Labour.

    On the other hand maybe they were planning on releasing it this weekend but instead want to compound the misery for Labour and remove doubts of an outlier.

    Interesting..
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just seen the Scotland poll - oh dear Labour!


    But well done the SNP
  • Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:

    "Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."

    Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    notme said:

    Plato said:

    I'd have no idea how to carve a turnip lantern, they're so small. We are talking about veg with orangish flesh and hard?

    We called turnips swedes back in Newcastle. And @malcolmg‌ calls them English - so it all gets a bit confusing.

    Toms said:

    A seasonal comment, but not topical:
    Apparently the carving of Halloween turnips is a tradition in Ireland.

    http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/october/turnip-lanterns.html

    I wonder, were they used to ward off spirits?

    I used to have a turnip lantern every Halloween when I was young here in the north east. I hadn't even seen a pumpkin until I was in my twenties.
    Swedes??? Posh Geordie or what? Never heard of a Swede until I went to Uni.
    Again, the same. What is now known as swedes, we called turnips.
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/TurnipJackolantern.jpg
    Interesting, that looks like the sort of thing which would be used at Halloween. Remember dressing up and going Guising, but only to friends' or close neighbours' houses.
  • Re. 'that' poll.

    Harry Smith ‏@stvharry 34 mins34 minutes ago
    @tombradby tells me MORI was so shocked by STV poll result it did the research again with a bigger sample - and got the same answer.

    That poll had the same sample size as a normal Ipsos-Mori Scotland poll.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2014
    chestnut said:


    That is really remarkable. We could be looking at another referendum as the price of an SNP coalition in 2015. An extraordiniarily good start for Miss Sturgeon.

    59 Scottish MPs. 591 non-Scottish MPs.
    'SNP Coalition'?

    Do you really think the rest of Britain (esp England) would tolerate SNP cabinet ministers and not pulverise any party which inflicted such abomination upon them?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dearie me, that sounds hideous. My other half used to call my views The Auto-Crap Reject Button when I simply didn't even register watching something.

    I'd never remember 51st State if I hadn't been stopped by the coppers.
    I do love terrible TV and films though - Mission To Mars with Tim Robbins was APPALLING. I was speechless at the end of it, so bad it was good. The actors kept looking at each other with WTF Are We Doing Here faces.

    Plato said:

    I'd argue that 51st State was worse. I was stopped by a random plod check-point and asked what I'd been doing that evening.

    My mind was blank - I told the officer I'd been to the pictures and no memory of what I'd seen only 15mins before. My bewilderment at this revelation convinced him I wasn't drunk, just baffled.

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    The Last Boy Scout was a terrible film. You should be ashamed of yourself for bringing it up.
    You've clearly got an excellent in-built quality filter somewhere!

    I think my worst entertainment experience would be an outdoor version of 'taming of the shrew', that for reasons no-one understood, had been set in the confederate states of america.

  • felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinister
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    "Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
    At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."

    So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland

    £20 at evens. SNP lead.
    Evens? more likely 1/1000

    Wonder if SNP will be as high as in Ipsos Mori?

    Hope there will be 2 polls a day after Murphy has had chance to turn it round.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Floater said:

    Just seen the Scotland poll - oh dear Labour!


    But well done the SNP

    oops - I bet that will go down like a bacon sarnie at Miliband's gala dinner tonight.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinister
    I didn't make a comment about Mr. Ali - it's a blogging site what do you expect politically correct Labour speak only?
  • Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:

    "Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."

    Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.

    Err, different James Kelly.
    James (ex PB) will be mortified...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.

    Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
    I'm struggling to forecast an election

    1) Conducted under supplementary vote

    2) With a turnout of around 12%
    It's easy.

    Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.

    Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.

    UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.

    Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.

    English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!

    Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type

    http://www.jennymarra.com/

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The clues have been there in the subsamples boys !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.

    Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
    I'm struggling to forecast an election

    1) Conducted under supplementary vote

    2) With a turnout of around 12%
    It's easy.

    Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.

    Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.

    UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.

    Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.

    English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.
    What about the don't knows?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    STV News ‏@STVNews now8 seconds ago
    Anas Sarwar announces resignation as Scottish Labour deputy leader http://bit.ly/1vlJXJt
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland.
    must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome aboard the B Ark, Mr Candidate!

    I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Pulpstar said:

    The clues have been there in the subsamples boys !

    Yes - maybe - very interesting if that is the case for the Scottish ones.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    notme said:

    I have a feeling that if Labour lose the PCC tomorrow, and lose it badly, then pressure for Ed to step down will be enormous.

    His intellectual superiority and zen like calmness will quell any dissent.
    I think you mean "intellectual self-confidence"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a super title. I'm feeling all inflamed by it in so many conflicting ways
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    Aren't there boy (and girl) scouts in 1984 who are trained in thoughtcrime detection?

    The Junior Anti-Sex League.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    felix said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen the Scotland poll - oh dear Labour!


    But well done the SNP

    oops - I bet that will go down like a bacon sarnie at Miliband's gala dinner tonight.
    Bacon Sarnie

    You should see Ed is crap trying to master the Haggis, neeps and tatties
  • I see Ladbrokes have pulled all the Scottish seats bar SNP holds . Wonder what price the SNP will emerge in many of them?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Was there another Boobajob fake flounce that I missed?
  • Plato said:

    Welcome aboard the B Ark, Mr Candidate!

    I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!

    Ta, I'm a long time "lurker", thought I'd de-lurk you give you guys a bit of insider info!
  • Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?

    Ta
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinister
    I didn't make a comment about Mr. Ali - it's a blogging site what do you expect politically correct Labour speak only?
    Unpleasant and sinister? You dont realise that a correlation between postal vote fraud and members of our 'vibrant' and 'diverse communities' exists?

    "electoral fraud is more likely to
    be committed by or in support of candidates standing for election in areas
    which are largely or predominately populated by some South Asian
    communities, specifically those with roots in parts of Pakistan or Bangladesh."

    Electoral commission.

    Makes you wonder, is it someone saying it that you have a problem with, rather than it being truthful? Is that the problem with Labour in Rotherham? It wasnt the systematic rape and child sex abuse of white girls by pakistani men that was the problem, just someone pointing it out?
  • Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?

    Ta

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
  • Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    You do have to wonder whether the elections will continue if sub 15% turnouts become the norm. I guess the other option is aligning them with GE/Euro elections to push up turnout.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited October 2014

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Good Man. I will take that.

    TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?

    I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
  • Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?

    Ta

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
    Many thanks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:

    "Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."

    Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.

    Err, different James Kelly.
    James (ex PB) will be mortified...
    While some of us are relieved! I would not wish JKPB on anyone.
  • Was there another Boobajob fake flounce that I missed?

    When did I flounce? I was at work!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Good Man. I will take that.

    TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?

    I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
    I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    The Last Boy Scout was a terrible film. You should be ashamed of yourself for bringing it up.
    I have never seen it!
    I remember quite liking it.
  • Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
    Given the size of the potential electorate it should be. Looks like we could be heading for the lowest turnout in a notable election in history.
  • DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!

    Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type

    http://www.jennymarra.com/

    True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owls
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564



    Err, different James Kelly.
    James (ex PB) will be mortified...

    Oh dear.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago
    To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    And current shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran to replace Jim Murphy at international development 2/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf


    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Labour sources tip Anas Sarwar to become shadow Scottish secretary 1/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf


  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
  • Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
  • DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!

    Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type

    http://www.jennymarra.com/

    True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owls
    That is only sometimes true. Kitty Ussher, former Labour MP, is the blood niece of Peter Bottomley Tory MP so there must have been some cross-partisan bonking somewhere along the line
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    Such a low turnout is hardly a ringing endorsement of whoever wins, but does not show much enthusiasm for a kipper copper bosser!

    Indeed the postal vote may clinch it for those who are actively hostile to the kipper vote.

    Is the result out tonight, it should not take long to count by the sound of it. Two men and a dog could have it counted by 2230!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!

    Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type

    http://www.jennymarra.com/

    True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owls
    True Mrs BJ was not into politics when we met.

    Now she is even more staunchly left wing than I.

    Am sure she would shag George Galloway if i didnt keep my eye on her
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?

    Ta

    Just imagine throwing a bucket of yellow paint at the wall.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinister
    What have you got against left handed people? I'm left handed and find your comment deeply offensive and demand you retract it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    Voter Fraud!!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    JPJ2 said:

    Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland.
    must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.

    Is it not more a case of easing the way for Mr Murphy by obviating that particular objection?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    Obviously you let the side down by not voting 42 times.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,171

    Pulpstar said:

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Good Man. I will take that.

    TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?

    I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
    I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
    Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?
  • Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    Voter Fraud!!!!
    Well I'm an Asian chap who voted by post in the latter election.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Breaking off from my holiday.

    My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.

    There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.

    Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.

    However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.

    Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.

    Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.

    I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.

    Did you have a 2nd preference?
    I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Good Man. I will take that.

    TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?

    I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
    I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
    Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?
    I conducted my own focus groups (I've been in the places that overwhelmingly voted for the Union a few weeks ago)

    I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!

    Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type

    http://www.jennymarra.com/

    True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owls

    Am sure she would shag George Galloway if i didnt keep my eye on her
    Good grief.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)

    Good catch. Pretty similar type of election too. Regional, 'second-tier'.
  • Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog

    Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."

    Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."

    http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705

    Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?

    And would this count as a significant UK election?

    In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.

    The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
    I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.

    Am I responsible for low turnout?
    I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.
    A bit like my plan to become the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    antifrank said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago
    To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...

    ooooh - cruel - naughty but nice!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?

    Ta

    Just imagine throwing a bucket of yellow paint at the wall.
    With a squashed orange and a couple of raspberry sooks added: map in

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/every-one-a-gem/#more-62761

  • Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.

    The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited October 2014
    twitter.com/aliemou/status/527897750026088449

    Photo of (I gather) socialist demo outside the dinner. And this is a Labour dinner in Glasgow we're talking about.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)

    I remember it well. And I was one of the dutiful 11.3%...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.

    The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?

    Dont knock a sympathy shag....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

    Greetings!

    What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.

    The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?

    The "45" are all pump primed and motivated to hand the Lib-Lab-Con-UKIP a shellacking more like.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.

    If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
  • According to this website, the result in South Yorkshire is expected tomorrow afternoon:

    http://www.southyorkshire-pcc.gov.uk/Home.aspx
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    my gob will be well and truly smacked if You Gov come up with the same result or close to it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

    Welcome out of the closet! It can only get more exciting...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    my gob will be well and truly smacked if You Gov come up with the same result or close to it.

    And yet IPSOS did their poll twice...

    The SNP are on 40 at least at any rate I think.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    yes but 29% is well... rather odd..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.

    Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?
  • Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 43%
    LAB - 27%
    CON - 15%
    LDEM - 4%
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Laura Bicker ✔ @BBCLBicker

    YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
    Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
    Other: 11

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    The Ironbridge Gorge BE of particular interest to me as it's a few hundred yards away and I knew the late incumbent, a very well respected guy who died far too young.

    I wouldn't have had IB as particularly fertile kipper territory so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    I think the worst part is, this poll will actually feel like a relief to Labour.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    that's more feasible
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    Shellacking confirmed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Danny565 said:

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

    I think the worst part is, this poll will actually feel like a relief to Labour.
    Yes - cue roger and the rest - the fight back begins!
  • OGH gets headlined by Sun Politics' twitter displaying his Electoral Calculus SNP would-be triumph.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    That £10 I spent backing the SNP in Dunbartonshire East might just be the best tenner I've ever spent, and the £200 backing Labour at 1-2 perhaps the worst £200.

    Still £300 profit if the SNP can do it there.

    And judging by the polls today they can.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Mike Smithson retweeted
    Laura Bicker ‏@BBCLBicker 3m3 minutes ago
    YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
    Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
    Other: 11
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited October 2014
    Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.
  • Plato said:

    When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.

    If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?

    I certainly hope so.
    Why would you hope for such a thing?
    It makes the thread more fun.

    It makes the thread more depressing
    oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
    i find it unusual that someone would spit at someone simply for not sharing their sense of humour
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    chestnut said:

    Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 43%
    LAB - 27%
    CON - 15%
    LDEM - 4%

    So almost exactly in line with the Scottish subsamples recently?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Virgins are always welcomed here ;^ )

    Glad to see you coming out.

    On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)

    (And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)

This discussion has been closed.