"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
Your point being Reggie?
Old Compton St is the main thoroughfare of London's gay quarter - you have been there haven't you, being a proper nawty Cockernee and all that, me old China.
I am certainly not a Cockney, Mr Watcher. Did you not find the "gay old time" and "Mr Ali" comments rather sinister?
Oh dear bobafett - continually changing your ID has got you all muddled. Our leftie friend roger thinks Old Compton street is a typical London street from which Labour will stride to victory in 2015 overwhelming the tartan army/middle england kippers and any other pervs who might challenge them. As a gay man myself I'm allowed the gay reference, no need to get me arrested and hauled off to the cells old boy.
There seems to be an extraordinary group on here who choose to use their time referring to me by a range of Christian names from Reginald to Robert. If you wish to reveal your true identity then please do so. My choice is to remain as Scout. If you do want to reveal your identity please go ahead, but I do not see why you wish to browbeat others into doing so
I'm thinking the Times would have plugged it more if it was terrible for Labour.
On the other hand maybe they were planning on releasing it this weekend but instead want to compound the misery for Labour and remove doubts of an outlier.
Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
Interesting, that looks like the sort of thing which would be used at Halloween. Remember dressing up and going Guising, but only to friends' or close neighbours' houses.
Harry Smith @stvharry 34 mins34 minutes ago @tombradby tells me MORI was so shocked by STV poll result it did the research again with a bigger sample - and got the same answer.
That poll had the same sample size as a normal Ipsos-Mori Scotland poll.
That is really remarkable. We could be looking at another referendum as the price of an SNP coalition in 2015. An extraordiniarily good start for Miss Sturgeon.
59 Scottish MPs. 591 non-Scottish MPs.
'SNP Coalition'?
Do you really think the rest of Britain (esp England) would tolerate SNP cabinet ministers and not pulverise any party which inflicted such abomination upon them?
Dearie me, that sounds hideous. My other half used to call my views The Auto-Crap Reject Button when I simply didn't even register watching something.
I'd never remember 51st State if I hadn't been stopped by the coppers. I do love terrible TV and films though - Mission To Mars with Tim Robbins was APPALLING. I was speechless at the end of it, so bad it was good. The actors kept looking at each other with WTF Are We Doing Here faces.
I'd argue that 51st State was worse. I was stopped by a random plod check-point and asked what I'd been doing that evening.
My mind was blank - I told the officer I'd been to the pictures and no memory of what I'd seen only 15mins before. My bewilderment at this revelation convinced him I wasn't drunk, just baffled.
Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
The Last Boy Scout was a terrible film. You should be ashamed of yourself for bringing it up.
You've clearly got an excellent in-built quality filter somewhere!
I think my worst entertainment experience would be an outdoor version of 'taming of the shrew', that for reasons no-one understood, had been set in the confederate states of america.
"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
£20 at evens. SNP lead.
Evens? more likely 1/1000
Wonder if SNP will be as high as in Ipsos Mori?
Hope there will be 2 polls a day after Murphy has had chance to turn it round.
Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
Err, different James Kelly. James (ex PB) will be mortified...
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
I'm struggling to forecast an election
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%
It's easy.
Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.
Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.
UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.
Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.
English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
I'm struggling to forecast an election
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%
It's easy.
Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.
Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.
UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.
Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.
English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.
Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland. must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.
I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!
I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!
Ta, I'm a long time "lurker", thought I'd de-lurk you give you guys a bit of insider info!
Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
I certainly hope so.
Why would you hope for such a thing?
It makes the thread more fun.
It makes the thread more depressing
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?
I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinister
I didn't make a comment about Mr. Ali - it's a blogging site what do you expect politically correct Labour speak only?
Unpleasant and sinister? You dont realise that a correlation between postal vote fraud and members of our 'vibrant' and 'diverse communities' exists?
"electoral fraud is more likely to be committed by or in support of candidates standing for election in areas which are largely or predominately populated by some South Asian communities, specifically those with roots in parts of Pakistan or Bangladesh."
Electoral commission.
Makes you wonder, is it someone saying it that you have a problem with, rather than it being truthful? Is that the problem with Labour in Rotherham? It wasnt the systematic rape and child sex abuse of white girls by pakistani men that was the problem, just someone pointing it out?
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
You do have to wonder whether the elections will continue if sub 15% turnouts become the norm. I guess the other option is aligning them with GE/Euro elections to push up turnout.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
Err, different James Kelly. James (ex PB) will be mortified...
While some of us are relieved! I would not wish JKPB on anyone.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
Given the size of the potential electorate it should be. Looks like we could be heading for the lowest turnout in a notable election in history.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owls
That is only sometimes true. Kitty Ussher, former Labour MP, is the blood niece of Peter Bottomley Tory MP so there must have been some cross-partisan bonking somewhere along the line
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Such a low turnout is hardly a ringing endorsement of whoever wins, but does not show much enthusiasm for a kipper copper bosser!
Indeed the postal vote may clinch it for those who are actively hostile to the kipper vote.
Is the result out tonight, it should not take long to count by the sound of it. Two men and a dog could have it counted by 2230!
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland. must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.
Is it not more a case of easing the way for Mr Murphy by obviating that particular objection?
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Am I responsible for low turnout?
Obviously you let the side down by not voting 42 times.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Am I responsible for low turnout?
I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Am I responsible for low turnout?
Voter Fraud!!!!
Well I'm an Asian chap who voted by post in the latter election.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.
Vote Dave, get Ed.
Good Man. I will take that.
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
I've been in Scotland for most of this week.
Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?
I conducted my own focus groups (I've been in the places that overwhelmingly voted for the Union a few weeks ago)
I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
And would this count as a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.
Am I responsible for low turnout?
I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.
A bit like my plan to become the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...
When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.
The Ironbridge Gorge BE of particular interest to me as it's a few hundred yards away and I knew the late incumbent, a very well respected guy who died far too young.
I wouldn't have had IB as particularly fertile kipper territory so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.
That £10 I spent backing the SNP in Dunbartonshire East might just be the best tenner I've ever spent, and the £200 backing Labour at 1-2 perhaps the worst £200.
When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.
Comments
At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%
On the other hand maybe they were planning on releasing it this weekend but instead want to compound the misery for Labour and remove doubts of an outlier.
Interesting..
But well done the SNP
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
Do you really think the rest of Britain (esp England) would tolerate SNP cabinet ministers and not pulverise any party which inflicted such abomination upon them?
I'd never remember 51st State if I hadn't been stopped by the coppers.
I do love terrible TV and films though - Mission To Mars with Tim Robbins was APPALLING. I was speechless at the end of it, so bad it was good. The actors kept looking at each other with WTF Are We Doing Here faces.
Wonder if SNP will be as high as in Ipsos Mori?
Hope there will be 2 polls a day after Murphy has had chance to turn it round.
James (ex PB) will be mortified...
Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.
Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.
UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.
Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.
English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/
STV News @STVNews now8 seconds ago
Anas Sarwar announces resignation as Scottish Labour deputy leader http://bit.ly/1vlJXJt
must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.
You should see Ed is crap trying to master the Haggis, neeps and tatties
Ta
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
"electoral fraud is more likely to
be committed by or in support of candidates standing for election in areas
which are largely or predominately populated by some South Asian
communities, specifically those with roots in parts of Pakistan or Bangladesh."
Electoral commission.
Makes you wonder, is it someone saying it that you have a problem with, rather than it being truthful? Is that the problem with Labour in Rotherham? It wasnt the systematic rape and child sex abuse of white girls by pakistani men that was the problem, just someone pointing it out?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...
George Eaton @georgeeaton
And current shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran to replace Jim Murphy at international development 2/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Labour sources tip Anas Sarwar to become shadow Scottish secretary 1/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
Am I responsible for low turnout?
Indeed the postal vote may clinch it for those who are actively hostile to the kipper vote.
Is the result out tonight, it should not take long to count by the sound of it. Two men and a dog could have it counted by 2230!
Now she is even more staunchly left wing than I.
Am sure she would shag George Galloway if i didnt keep my eye on her
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)
I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/every-one-a-gem/#more-62761
The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?
Photo of (I gather) socialist demo outside the dinner. And this is a Labour dinner in Glasgow we're talking about.
What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.
http://www.southyorkshire-pcc.gov.uk/Home.aspx
The SNP are on 40 at least at any rate I think.
Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-30
SNP - 43%
LAB - 27%
CON - 15%
LDEM - 4%
Laura Bicker ✔ @BBCLBicker
YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
Other: 11
I wouldn't have had IB as particularly fertile kipper territory so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.
Still £300 profit if the SNP can do it there.
And judging by the polls today they can.
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker 3m3 minutes ago
YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
Other: 11
Times/YouGov Scotland:
How much do you trust:
Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
Gordon Brown: 37%
Jim Murphy: 24%
David Cameron: 19%
Ed Miliband: 15%
Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.
Glad to see you coming out.