politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014
Comments
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It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland0 -
I'm struggling to forecast an electiondavid_herdson said:
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%0 -
Oh and you're depressed because of the poll earlier in case you forgot:)The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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£20 at evens. SNP lead.Roger said:"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland0 -
There seems to be an extraordinary group on here who choose to use their time referring to me by a range of Christian names from Reginald to Robert. If you wish to reveal your true identity then please do so. My choice is to remain as Scout. If you do want to reveal your identity please go ahead, but I do not see why you wish to browbeat others into doing sofelix said:
Ditto in Sunderland.SandyRentool said:
I used to have a turnip lantern every Halloween when I was young here in the north east. I hadn't even seen a pumpkin until I was in my twenties.Toms said:A seasonal comment, but not topical:
Apparently the carving of Halloween turnips is a tradition in Ireland.
http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/october/turnip-lanterns.html
I wonder, were they used to ward off spirits?
Oh dear bobafett - continually changing your ID has got you all muddled. Our leftie friend roger thinks Old Compton street is a typical London street from which Labour will stride to victory in 2015 overwhelming the tartan army/middle england kippers and any other pervs who might challenge them. As a gay man myself I'm allowed the gay reference, no need to get me arrested and hauled off to the cells old boy.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
I am certainly not a Cockney, Mr Watcher. Did you not find the "gay old time" and "Mr Ali" comments rather sinister?TheWatcher said:
Your point being Reggie?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
Old Compton St is the main thoroughfare of London's gay quarter - you have been there haven't you, being a proper nawty Cockernee and all that, me old China.0 -
I'm thinking the Times would have plugged it more if it was terrible for Labour.
On the other hand maybe they were planning on releasing it this weekend but instead want to compound the misery for Labour and remove doubts of an outlier.
Interesting..0 -
Just seen the Scotland poll - oh dear Labour!
But well done the SNP0 -
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?0 -
Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.0 -
Interesting, that looks like the sort of thing which would be used at Halloween. Remember dressing up and going Guising, but only to friends' or close neighbours' houses.notme said:
Again, the same. What is now known as swedes, we called turnips.SandyRentool said:
Swedes??? Posh Geordie or what? Never heard of a Swede until I went to Uni.Plato said:I'd have no idea how to carve a turnip lantern, they're so small. We are talking about veg with orangish flesh and hard?
We called turnips swedes back in Newcastle. And @malcolmg calls them English - so it all gets a bit confusing.SandyRentool said:
I used to have a turnip lantern every Halloween when I was young here in the north east. I hadn't even seen a pumpkin until I was in my twenties.Toms said:A seasonal comment, but not topical:
Apparently the carving of Halloween turnips is a tradition in Ireland.
http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/october/turnip-lanterns.html
I wonder, were they used to ward off spirits?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/TurnipJackolantern.jpg
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That poll had the same sample size as a normal Ipsos-Mori Scotland poll.Theuniondivvie said:Re. 'that' poll.
Harry Smith @stvharry 34 mins34 minutes ago
@tombradby tells me MORI was so shocked by STV poll result it did the research again with a bigger sample - and got the same answer.0 -
'SNP Coalition'?chestnut said:
59 Scottish MPs. 591 non-Scottish MPs.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
That is really remarkable. We could be looking at another referendum as the price of an SNP coalition in 2015. An extraordiniarily good start for Miss Sturgeon.
Do you really think the rest of Britain (esp England) would tolerate SNP cabinet ministers and not pulverise any party which inflicted such abomination upon them?
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Dearie me, that sounds hideous. My other half used to call my views The Auto-Crap Reject Button when I simply didn't even register watching something.
I'd never remember 51st State if I hadn't been stopped by the coppers.
I do love terrible TV and films though - Mission To Mars with Tim Robbins was APPALLING. I was speechless at the end of it, so bad it was good. The actors kept looking at each other with WTF Are We Doing Here faces.anotherDave said:
You've clearly got an excellent in-built quality filter somewhere!Plato said:I'd argue that 51st State was worse. I was stopped by a random plod check-point and asked what I'd been doing that evening.
My mind was blank - I told the officer I'd been to the pictures and no memory of what I'd seen only 15mins before. My bewilderment at this revelation convinced him I wasn't drunk, just baffled.anotherDave said:
The Last Boy Scout was a terrible film. You should be ashamed of yourself for bringing it up.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
I think my worst entertainment experience would be an outdoor version of 'taming of the shrew', that for reasons no-one understood, had been set in the confederate states of america.0 -
I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinisterfelix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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Evens? more likely 1/1000Pulpstar said:
£20 at evens. SNP lead.Roger said:"Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 7m7 minutes ago
At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here."
So at 10PM we'll know if YouGov have regained their position as 'The Gold standard' by finding a robust Labour lead in Scotland
Wonder if SNP will be as high as in Ipsos Mori?
Hope there will be 2 polls a day after Murphy has had chance to turn it round.0 -
I didn't make a comment about Mr. Ali - it's a blogging site what do you expect politically correct Labour speak only?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinisterfelix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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Err, different James Kelly.NickPalmer said:Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
James (ex PB) will be mortified...0 -
It's easy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm struggling to forecast an electiondavid_herdson said:
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%
Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.
Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.
UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.
Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.
English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.0 -
DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/
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The clues have been there in the subsamples boys !0
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What about the don't knows?david_herdson said:
It's easy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm struggling to forecast an electiondavid_herdson said:
I do wonder whether a decent postal vote return will help Labour this time.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
Normally parties would expect a good loyal vote among postal votes as those are the people you try and sign up but the circumstances now are such that it might just make it an easier route by which to protest.
1) Conducted under supplementary vote
2) With a turnout of around 12%
Lib Dems will be voting Labour to stop UKIP, apart from the ones who'll be voting UKIP to stop Labour, though some might vote Con first. As will Cons.
Labour voters will be voting Eng Dem to stop UKIP finishing in the top two. Some might vote Con.
UKIP voters will be tactically supporting Labour in order to lull them into a false sense of security.
Greens will be feeling superior about not wasting the paper.
English Democrats will be eating the voting pencils.0 -
Vote Dave, get Ed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?0 -
Twitter
STV News @STVNews now8 seconds ago
Anas Sarwar announces resignation as Scottish Labour deputy leader http://bit.ly/1vlJXJt0 -
Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland.
must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.
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Welcome aboard the B Ark, Mr Candidate!YorkshireCandidate said:
I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!
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I think you mean "intellectual self-confidence"TheWatcher said:
His intellectual superiority and zen like calmness will quell any dissent.notme said:I have a feeling that if Labour lose the PCC tomorrow, and lose it badly, then pressure for Ed to step down will be enormous.
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That's a super title. I'm feeling all inflamed by it in so many conflicting waysSean_F said:
The Junior Anti-Sex League.Ishmael_X said:
Aren't there boy (and girl) scouts in 1984 who are trained in thoughtcrime detection?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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I see Ladbrokes have pulled all the Scottish seats bar SNP holds . Wonder what price the SNP will emerge in many of them?0
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Was there another Boobajob fake flounce that I missed?0
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Ta, I'm a long time "lurker", thought I'd de-lurk you give you guys a bit of insider info!Plato said:Welcome aboard the B Ark, Mr Candidate!
YorkshireCandidate said:I've just been to vote in a solid Conservative area of Barnsley (yes we do have one!). Turnout is approaching 10% here, however I was told that a number of Barnsley polling stations have only seen 3-5 people all day - make of that what you will!
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Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?
Ta0 -
Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?0 -
Unpleasant and sinister? You dont realise that a correlation between postal vote fraud and members of our 'vibrant' and 'diverse communities' exists?felix said:
I didn't make a comment about Mr. Ali - it's a blogging site what do you expect politically correct Labour speak only?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinisterfelix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
"electoral fraud is more likely to
be committed by or in support of candidates standing for election in areas
which are largely or predominately populated by some South Asian
communities, specifically those with roots in parts of Pakistan or Bangladesh."
Electoral commission.
Makes you wonder, is it someone saying it that you have a problem with, rather than it being truthful? Is that the problem with Labour in Rotherham? It wasnt the systematic rape and child sex abuse of white girls by pakistani men that was the problem, just someone pointing it out?0 -
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?
Ta0 -
You do have to wonder whether the elections will continue if sub 15% turnouts become the norm. I guess the other option is aligning them with GE/Euro elections to push up turnout.manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?0 -
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).0 -
Good Man. I will take that.Pulpstar said:
Vote Dave, get Ed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.0 -
Many thanks.manofkent2014 said:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?
Ta0 -
While some of us are relieved! I would not wish JKPB on anyone.Theuniondivvie said:
Err, different James Kelly.NickPalmer said:Two familiar names in that link about Sarwar standing down:
"Murphy yesterday appointed two respected MSPs - Jenny Marra and James Kelly - as the joint chairs of his leadership team."
Jenny is the MSP who DavidL fanci...er...admires, and James is a former poster here who was impressively dedicated, even though he was I think eventually banned for overdoing it. He gave a left-of-centre impression.
James (ex PB) will be mortified...0 -
When did I flounce? I was at work!JonnyJimmy said:Was there another Boobajob fake flounce that I missed?
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I've been in Scotland for most of this week.bigjohnowls said:
Good Man. I will take that.Pulpstar said:
Vote Dave, get Ed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.0 -
I remember quite liking it.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
I have never seen it!anotherDave said:
The Last Boy Scout was a terrible film. You should be ashamed of yourself for bringing it up.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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Given the size of the potential electorate it should be. Looks like we could be heading for the lowest turnout in a notable election in history.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.0 -
True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owlsbigjohnowls said:DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/
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0
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Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago
To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...0 -
George Eaton @georgeeaton
And current shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran to replace Jim Murphy at international development 2/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Labour sources tip Anas Sarwar to become shadow Scottish secretary 1/2 http://bit.ly/1whnOAf
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On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)0 -
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?
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That is only sometimes true. Kitty Ussher, former Labour MP, is the blood niece of Peter Bottomley Tory MP so there must have been some cross-partisan bonking somewhere along the lineThe_Last_Boy_Scout said:
True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owlsbigjohnowls said:DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/0 -
Such a low turnout is hardly a ringing endorsement of whoever wins, but does not show much enthusiasm for a kipper copper bosser!Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Indeed the postal vote may clinch it for those who are actively hostile to the kipper vote.
Is the result out tonight, it should not take long to count by the sound of it. Two men and a dog could have it counted by 2230!
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True Mrs BJ was not into politics when we met.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owlsbigjohnowls said:DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/
Now she is even more staunchly left wing than I.
Am sure she would shag George Galloway if i didnt keep my eye on her
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Just imagine throwing a bucket of yellow paint at the wall.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?
Ta0 -
What have you got against left handed people? I'm left handed and find your comment deeply offensive and demand you retract it.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
I didn't find the Mr Ali comment humourous personally - I thought it rather unpleasant and sinisterfelix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
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The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Voter Fraud!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?0 -
Is it not more a case of easing the way for Mr Murphy by obviating that particular objection?JPJ2 said:Anas Sarwar standing down as Deputy Leader of the British Labour Party in Scotland.
must be on the assumption that Murphy will win and that his deputy cannot also (politically) be an MP.
0 -
Obviously you let the side down by not voting 42 times.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?0 -
I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?0 -
Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been in Scotland for most of this week.bigjohnowls said:
Good Man. I will take that.Pulpstar said:
Vote Dave, get Ed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.0 -
Well I'm an Asian chap who voted by post in the latter election.bigjohnowls said:
Voter Fraud!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?0 -
I conducted my own focus groups (I've been in the places that overwhelmingly voted for the Union a few weeks ago)SandyRentool said:
Did you get asked to participate in any opinion polls while you were there?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been in Scotland for most of this week.bigjohnowls said:
Good Man. I will take that.Pulpstar said:
Vote Dave, get Ed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Tory first and my second preference was left blank.bigjohnowls said:
Oh dear that would be a terrible result for LAB if your friend is correct.TheScreamingEagles said:Breaking off from my holiday.
My Labour activist friend in Sheffield reports the following.
There was higher than expected postal returns, which was accepted by all was a good sign for Labour.
Labour also made a major effort in the last 72 hours to GOTV.
However, he thinks Labour has lost it on the day and 2nd prefs will push UKIP over the line.
Note: He is a glass half empty kind of guy.
I will be very surprised. I thought a narrow LAB win myself.
Did you have a 2nd preference?
TSE did you go to the Unlimited screening of Nightcrawler on Monday?
I really enjoyed the film, didn't see you though, which would of course enhanced the evening further.
I get the feeling the Unionists have disengaged from the political process since the referendum and won't be politically engaged until closer to the General Election.0 -
Good grief.bigjohnowls said:The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
True love is untroubled by the political divide, John Owlsbigjohnowls said:DavidL you were hoping you and Jenny will be better together again sometime soon!!
Tut Tut she is too left wing to be your type
http://www.jennymarra.com/
Am sure she would shag George Galloway if i didnt keep my eye on her0 -
Good catch. Pretty similar type of election too. Regional, 'second-tier'.david_herdson said:The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)0 -
A bit like my plan to become the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.Quincel said:
I think the way it works is that their democratic mandate is rapidly becoming answering to you personally.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted in the Manchester Central By-election and the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner by election.Quincel said:
And would this count as a significant UK election?manofkent2014 said:Some comments on the PCC election from a Sheffield blog
Timed at 21:27 "I've just been out to vote - to great rejoicing at the polling station, I put them over 8%."
Timed at 20:48 "I've just got back from casting my vote in the PCC election and our polling station has only had 90 people vote all day."
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?s=762cb35810b56f48133ecee17929a303&p=10738705#post10738705
Whats the lowest turnout for a significant UK election?
In any case, the lowest peacetime by-election turnout was Manchester Central in 2012 (18.2%). The lowest ever recorded was Poplar South in 1942 (9.3%) - but they probably had a decent excuse.
The PCC elections averaged 14.5%, with the lowest being Staffordshire (11.6%).
Am I responsible for low turnout?0 -
ooooh - cruel - naughty but nice!!antifrank said:Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 41m41 minutes ago
To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori's Scotland numbers as "just one poll", I have good news...0 -
With a squashed orange and a couple of raspberry sooks added: map inAlistair said:
Just imagine throwing a bucket of yellow paint at the wall.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone got a link to the electoral calculus predictor for Scotland only?
Ta
http://wingsoverscotland.com/every-one-a-gem/#more-62761
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Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.
The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?0 -
twitter.com/aliemou/status/527897750026088449
Photo of (I gather) socialist demo outside the dinner. And this is a Labour dinner in Glasgow we're talking about.0 -
I remember it well. And I was one of the dutiful 11.3%...david_herdson said:The Merseyside West European by-election in December 1996 had a turnout of 11.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyside_West_(European_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Dont knock a sympathy shag....TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.
The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?0 -
Greetings!Harris_Tweed said:On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
What news of Ironbridge; the birthplace of the industrial revolution!0 -
The "45" are all pump primed and motivated to hand the Lib-Lab-Con-UKIP a shellacking more like.TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Ipsos-Mori poll.
The Scottish voters are giving the SNP a sympathy shag aren't they?0 -
When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.felix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
0 -
According to this website, the result in South Yorkshire is expected tomorrow afternoon:
http://www.southyorkshire-pcc.gov.uk/Home.aspx0 -
my gob will be well and truly smacked if You Gov come up with the same result or close to it.
0 -
Welcome out of the closet! It can only get more exciting...Harris_Tweed said:On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)
0 -
And yet IPSOS did their poll twice...SquareRoot said:my gob will be well and truly smacked if You Gov come up with the same result or close to it.
The SNP are on 40 at least at any rate I think.0 -
yes but 29% is well... rather odd..
0 -
What we need are some Scottish constituency polls.
Does Lord A fancy calling Glasgow ?0 -
Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-300 -
Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
SNP - 43%
LAB - 27%
CON - 15%
LDEM - 4%0 -
Laura Bicker ✔ @BBCLBicker
YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
Other: 11
0 -
The Ironbridge Gorge BE of particular interest to me as it's a few hundred yards away and I knew the late incumbent, a very well respected guy who died far too young.
I wouldn't have had IB as particularly fertile kipper territory so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.0 -
I think the worst part is, this poll will actually feel like a relief to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-300 -
that's more feasible
0 -
Shellacking confirmed.TheScreamingEagles said:Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-300 -
Yes - cue roger and the rest - the fight back begins!Danny565 said:
I think the worst part is, this poll will actually feel like a relief to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-300 -
OGH gets headlined by Sun Politics' twitter displaying his Electoral Calculus SNP would-be triumph.0
-
That £10 I spent backing the SNP in Dunbartonshire East might just be the best tenner I've ever spent, and the £200 backing Labour at 1-2 perhaps the worst £200.
Still £300 profit if the SNP can do it there.
And judging by the polls today they can.0 -
Mike Smithson retweeted
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker 3m3 minutes ago
YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27
Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43
Other: 110 -
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Times/YouGov Scotland:
How much do you trust:
Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
Gordon Brown: 37%
Jim Murphy: 24%
David Cameron: 19%
Ed Miliband: 15%
Christ,a tory leader more trustworthy than a labour leader in Scotland.0 -
i find it unusual that someone would spit at someone simply for not sharing their sense of humourPlato said:When someone takes offense in one of these subjects, I want to blow an enormous raspberry. The best boss I ever had was a complete and proud queen. He insisted on spelling a question as a *queery*.
If he's still alive, I'll be amazed. He looked like a tired 45 when he was 28.felix said:
oh dear - humour breakdown on the left - has anyone seen bobajop/bobafett/lastboy scout and Ed Miliband in the same room?The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
It makes the thread more depressingSean_F said:
It makes the thread more fun.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:
Why would you hope for such a thing?Sean_F said:
I certainly hope so.The_Last_Boy_Scout said:Regarding the comments about Old Compton St and postal voting, are we to assume homophobia and racism are alive and well on this forum this evening?
0 -
So almost exactly in line with the Scottish subsamples recently?chestnut said:Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
SNP - 43%
LAB - 27%
CON - 15%
LDEM - 4%0 -
Virgins are always welcomed here ;^ )
Glad to see you coming out.Harris_Tweed said:On a point of fairly dull information... Telford & Wrekin's been unitary since 1996. The rest of Shropshire followed suit in 2009:)
(And hello... can't believe I signed up to post that after 4 years of lurking!)0
