politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-
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John McTernan (he of "there won't be a referendum") labelled the SNP as a Zombie party the other day. I don't think he meant as in terms of an out of control mob consuming all opposition and multiplying rapidly.Danny565 said:
It clashes with another one of his predictions that the SNP would be toast after the referendum.Anorak said:Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".
His long-held thesis has been that Labour's support would "swing back" to the Conservatives. In actual fact, their support's been drifting to virtually every party EXCEPT the Conservatives, which means the big two are now level pegging even though the Tories are still at the dire polling levels of the Omnishambles in 2012.0 -
In what sense? There wasn't even a c&s arrangement.Itajai said:antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.0 -
I really can't see the path to a majority for either Ed or Dave right now.
But pricewise I agree with Tissue price that 3.45 is far too short for Labour majority. 6.00 is probably fair enough for the Tories.
New book:
-245 Lab Maj
+100 Con Maj
+188 NOM.
Or so.0 -
Labour did quite well in the last boundary review, in that because the city of Exeter has grown it had to lose a ward or two, and they managed to argue for losing the strongest Conservative wards on the eastern edge of the city, rather than some strongish Labour wards to the west of the river Exe.Itajai said:
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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Re-brand themselves as Scot-KIP?SandyRentool said:So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
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Theuniondivvie said:
In what sense? There wasn't even a c&s arrangement.Itajai said:antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.
Nothing official, but
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7229507.stm0 -
Only on an item by item confidence and supply basis, and only 'happily' by comparison with SLAB and the SLDs who were too busy throwing their toys out of the pram, to the extent that SLAB nearly closed down the Scottish Government by voting against a budget proposal which SLAB had themselves proposed, just because the SNP had adopted it.Itajai said:antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.
IIRC what happened was that the Tories had to be thrown the occasional sop to Cerberus to keep them quiet, like the odd 1000 polis on the beat. Which, it should be said, achieved a great deal more for Tory aims than the SLAB sulk did for Labour aims.
It was not a coalition by any means - especially when the Tories insisted on voting for the Edinburgh trams and wrecking transport policy.
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They would have hopes of getting from 10% to 12% with that approach, if this poll is to be believed. But I doubt that voters like DavidL would stay on board.anotherDave said:
Re-brand themselves as Scot-KIP?SandyRentool said:So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
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Ed Miliband faces electoral annihilation in Scotland according to a bombshell poll.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11198620/Labour-faces-electoral-wipeout-in-Scotland-as-new-poll-shows-party-will-hold-just-four-seats.html0 -
There was in practice, in that the Tories consistently voted the SNP's budgets through. There didn't need to be a formal arrangement and indeed it probably suited both parties for there not to be one.Theuniondivvie said:
In what sense? There wasn't even a c&s arrangement.Itajai said:antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.0 -
I doubt the new UKIP MEP has done UKIP any favours in Scotland - anyone who has seen him must think to themselves "Oh God, who have we just elected."
Perhaps a reason UKIP are on 2% and not say 5% or so.0 -
x - I don't know why people don't like fracking. Is it the unfortunate name? The extraction takes place thousands of feet below the water table.
o - what will be interesting tonight is the difference between 1st preference and 2nd preference votes. If we assume Labour will win 1st preference with UKIP 2nd (most likely scenario) then what will the Tories do?
A big second preference for UKIP (ABL) could be VERY damaging to Ed as the Tories (who can't really win a seat in the area) will have realised that they could make a difference on tactical voting at the GE. This would apply even if Labour hold on.
A tie (or Labour win) would suggest that Tories generally will not vote tactically at the GE and Ed can sleep a bit better (although with that Scottish poll . . .)0 -
If this poll turns out not to be a rogue one, then i reckon Labour faces a GE disaster on a scale not seen for decades. As Martin Kettle wrote this morning in the Guardian to be serious about forming a government next year they should be in with a fighting chance at Rochester and be confident of holding most of their Scottish MPs. They are doing neither.
How long before the party seriously turns on Ed?0 -
Labour won by 2721 votes. The wards moved to East Devon seem to have been worth 1005 on electoral calculus so that would still have left Labour 1700 ahead. Prior to 1997 it had last been won in 1966 though I seem to notice smaller Tory majorities. Not sure why.OblitusSumMe said:
Labour did quite well in the last boundary review, in that because the city of Exeter has grown it had to lose a ward or two, and they managed to argue for losing the strongest Conservative wards on the eastern edge of the city, rather than some strongish Labour wards to the west of the river Exe.Itajai said:
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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He's unlikely to get a very warm reception tonightrottenborough said:How long before the party seriously turns on Ed?
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Yesterday Ed lost the Jewish vote, and today most of Scotland – I don’t think there are enough left to turn on him…rottenborough said:If this poll turns out not to be a rogue one, then i reckon Labour faces a GE disaster on a scale not seen for decades. As Martin Kettle wrote this morning in the Guardian to be serious about forming a government next year they should be in with a fighting chance at Rochester and be confident of holding most of their Scottish MPs. They are doing neither.
How long before the party seriously turns on Ed?0 -
Sorry, I was being imprecise in using the word devolution when I was referring to the English implications, rather than the Vow. Labour no longer have to worry that sorting out an English Parliament, or EVEL, is a Tory plot if they also have fewer MPs than there are pandas in Scotland (assuming that giant pandas can have twins and this happens fairly soon...)chestnut said:
Aren't Labour offering the most anaemic version of devolution though? The offer from the Tories (and Lib Dems for what that's worth) is much more devolutionary.OblitusSumMe said:Even with a taxi-style wipeout for the Lib Dems in England this sort of result would increase the size of the Hung Parliament window at the next GE.
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.
Also... "Vote Ed, Get Salmond"
The Scottish situation is a complete disaster for Labour.
Their links to Scotland will be poisonous in England.0 -
logical_song said:
That's right. UKIP are doing OK. But not punching through.Tapestry said:
UKIP are very fond of Fracking, but they seem to be doing ok.
Greens are up from 2/3% to 7%. If UKIP had the right policy on fracking, and tackled the environmental issues correctly, they'd be punching right through into the 20+%s.
I'll just have to keep pointing out the pattern of events until someone realises what's happening here. Immigration is a big vote winner. But so too is fracking a big vote loser.0 -
For this poll to square with national polling, we must be flying in the English marginals. Ergo, this Scottish poll is a disaster for David Cameron. No wonder he'd rather talk about smack.0
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If UKIP can get some MSPs at the next scottish parliament election (2016?) they can build from that.Pulpstar said:I doubt the new UKIP MEP has done UKIP any favours in Scotland - anyone who has seen him must think to themselves "Oh God, who have we just elected."
Scotland doesn't seem to have annual local elections, just one every x years. Next one 2017.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2012
There seem to be two classes of votes: constituency, and regional.Pulpstar said:Perhaps a reason UKIP are on 2% and not say 5% or so.
In the regional vote UKIP are around 5-8%. (in other polls)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2016#Regional_Vote_.28AMS.29
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Mr. Borough, it's too late. I believe that it has occasionally been whispered by some fellow called Dan Hodges, and rarely spoken of here, but some say Ed Miliband is not necessarily Trajan reborn.
He could yet win. But today's poll is for Labour as the Teutoberg Forest massacre was for the Romans, and Miliband is no Augustus Caesar.0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
Maureen Lipman: I won't vote Labour while Ed's in charge: http://bit.ly/1wIyZ3Y
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And don't forget he's lost the London vote thanks to the tax on aspirational London, aka the Mansion Tax.SimonStClare said:
Yesterday Ed lost the Jewish vote, and today most of Scotland – I don’t think there are enough left to turn on him…rottenborough said:If this poll turns out not to be a rogue one, then i reckon Labour faces a GE disaster on a scale not seen for decades. As Martin Kettle wrote this morning in the Guardian to be serious about forming a government next year they should be in with a fighting chance at Rochester and be confident of holding most of their Scottish MPs. They are doing neither.
How long before the party seriously turns on Ed?0 -
I'd wait for a second Scotland specific poll as well.Pulpstar said:
@Shadsy is as confused as the rest of us.isam said:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 43m43 minutes agoantifrank said:Ladbrokes' constituency markets are back up, but Scottish seats are conspicuous by their absence. Shadsy must be putting his thinking cap on.
@chrishanretty I currently have absolutely no idea how to re-price the Scottish seats.
Big overrounds and short prices on the SNP would be my advice if I was his boss at Ladbrokes.
I wonder if the total amount bet on seats in Scotland will exceed total amount bet of seats in England. Scotland the political betting capital of the UK.0 -
As Oblitus mentions if they had moved the 4 wards west of the Exe instead of Topsham and St Loyes then Con would surely have won. 2 other factors:Itajai said:
Labour won by 2721 votes. The wards moved to East Devon seem to have been worth 1005 on electoral calculus so that would still have left Labour 1700 ahead. Prior to 1997 it had last been won in 1966 though I seem to notice smaller Tory majorities. Not sure why.OblitusSumMe said:
Labour did quite well in the last boundary review, in that because the city of Exeter has grown it had to lose a ward or two, and they managed to argue for losing the strongest Conservative wards on the eastern edge of the city, rather than some strongish Labour wards to the west of the river Exe.Itajai said:
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
1) I think Bradshaw is reasonably popular
2) When the Met Office relocated to Exeter that would have brought in a few more left leaning voters
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Highly unlikely Sean - This poll is dreadful for the Tories too.SeanT said:It's noticeable that Scotland now seems to be following the Spanish "sub-national" pattern.
In the Spanish General Election of 2011 the Basques and Catalans voted mainly for local Nationalist parties, not parties from Madrid. This makes sense politically for Basques and Catalans as it means the regional/nationalist parties, flexing new muscles, can wrest more powers and porkbarrel from the ruling parties in Castile.
http://nationalismstudies.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/spains-2011-general-election-one-state-three-nations/
The upshot for us is that the days of Labour hegemony in Scotland are probably over, forever. Which is a seismic shift.
In the long run a new devolved Scottish Tory party might overtake a rump of SLAB, as the Nats shift left under Sturgeon leaving room for Tartan Tories.
You seem to think Labour won't do well in London? Interesting...
IMO, It's one of the few bastions that Labour has left - Labour will pick off the LD vote and have at least 45 London MPs if not more...0 -
Hodges speaks – but not on the STV Scottish poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11198691/Labours-first-Jewish-leader-is-losing-the-Jewish-vote.htmlEd’s 35% strategy.
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Just popping in. Have the usual suspects been on to give us their achingly amusing EICEIPM shtick?0
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There are some very large grand houses in Exeter that have been converted to flats, old people's homes, etc. It's possible that over the course of a few decades you've had Tory voters moving to quieter places in the Devon countryside - Chagford, Newton Poppleford, etc.Itajai said:
Labour won by 2721 votes. The wards moved to East Devon seem to have been worth 1005 on electoral calculus so that would still have left Labour 1700 ahead. Prior to 1997 it had last been won in 1966 though I seem to notice smaller Tory majorities. Not sure why.OblitusSumMe said:
Labour did quite well in the last boundary review, in that because the city of Exeter has grown it had to lose a ward or two, and they managed to argue for losing the strongest Conservative wards on the eastern edge of the city, rather than some strongish Labour wards to the west of the river Exe.Itajai said:
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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My bet now is on the Tories getting a majority even with a smaller voteshare than 2010.SeanT said:Surely the sensible money should now be edging towards a Tory majority (albeit tiny), that's where the VALUE is.
It's not so much that the Tories are doing well, it's the increasing potential for Labour to do calamitously badly - go under their 2010 score, for instance.
e.g. a Scottish vote anything like this poll seriously diminishes the favourable electoral bias towards Ed's party, as so many of the smallest constituencies are north of the border.
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05677.pdf
If Labour drop down to 27-29, as people balk at the idea of voting for Little Ed, I think Cameron could easily sneak it.0 -
SLAB = ROFLMAO
all that villanising the english has paid off.0 -
Good catch!SandyRentool said:For this poll to square with national polling, we must be flying in the English marginals. Ergo, this Scottish poll is a disaster for David Cameron. No wonder he'd rather talk about smack.
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Blue flight! Don't want to stay living next door to all those Marxist weather forecasters...OblitusSumMe said:
There are some very large grand houses in Exeter that have been converted to flats, old people's homes, etc. It's possible that over the course of a few decades you've had Tory voters moving to quieter places in the Devon countryside - Chagford, Newton Poppleford, etc.Itajai said:
Labour won by 2721 votes. The wards moved to East Devon seem to have been worth 1005 on electoral calculus so that would still have left Labour 1700 ahead. Prior to 1997 it had last been won in 1966 though I seem to notice smaller Tory majorities. Not sure why.OblitusSumMe said:
Labour did quite well in the last boundary review, in that because the city of Exeter has grown it had to lose a ward or two, and they managed to argue for losing the strongest Conservative wards on the eastern edge of the city, rather than some strongish Labour wards to the west of the river Exe.Itajai said:
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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So far Ed's 35% strategy excludesSeanT said:as people balk at the idea of voting for Little Ed, I think Cameron could easily sneak it.
- Anyone South of Manchester
- Anyone North of Newcastle
- Anyone in London earning £42k
- Anyone Jewish
His stance on the NHS might yet do for the Welsh.
Who else has he got left to piss off?
A luvvie Tax perhaps?0 -
Mr. T, just on the Yorkshire point: worth mentioning Yorkshire's very large. Some areas are very red, others (much of North Yorkshire, for example) pretty blue. Leeds, I think, is a bit of a patchwork.
Your point about South Yorkshire/Rotherham is entirely valid, from what I gather, though.
Saw a smidgen of the candidates on local news last night. Labour bloke was human horlicks, EDP chap seemed fairly sound.0 -
And seats such as Rochester, which they held from 1997-2010 but have run away from, tail tucked between legs. Add in possible losses such as Heywood to UKIP, maybe Rotherham too...OblitusSumMe said:
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
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Will we get the South Yorkshire result this evening?0
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@AndyJS Someone has just sent a tweet on your twitter account suggesting that you've left yourself logged in on a public device.0
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Should do hopefully.anotherDave said:Will we get the South Yorkshire result this evening?
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" Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
Maureen Lipman: I won't vote Labour while Ed's in charge"
......Because Ed supports a Palestinian homeland and voted for it as did an overwhelming number of members of the HoC of all parties.0 -
They did -no to independence, but vote in the SNP. It's the perfect compromise. Stay in Europe but vote in UKIP being another popular choice.Sunil_Prasannan said:But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!
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ENP (Scotland) 2.9 down from 3.6 in 2010...0
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The worrying thing for Labour re polls like this is that even replacing Miliband as leader probably won't affect the polls much in Scotland.
Miliband is dire but I guess only replacing him with a Scot would make them competitive against the SNP. That leaves only Darling, Murphy and Alexander. None of whom are in the running.
GE2015 is an incredibly difficult one to predict. Labour's fault too: poor choice of leader. Has been since day one.0 -
One change at Ladbrokes that I think is due to this poll:
PM at 2015 Queen's Speech
Miliband 10/11 (from 4/5)
Cameron 11/10 (from 5/4)0 -
Luvvies of whatever political persuasion should just STFU IMO. Who gives a flying F&£K what Maureen Lipman thinks about the price of eggs?Roger said:" Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
Maureen Lipman: I won't vote Labour while Ed's in charge"
......Because Ed supports a Palestinian homeland and voted for it as did an overwhelming number of members of the HoC of all parties.0 -
Shame that this McPoll has overshadowed the earlier YouGov that showed a massive swing towards leaving the EU.. 9pts I believe0
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Hills still might be Dave Cameron PM in 2016 at 5-2, I'm on at 7-2 and don't want to lower my odds on that but 5-2 sounds pretty good.JonnyJimmy said:One change at Ladbrokes that I think is due to this poll:
PM at 2015 Queen's Speech
Miliband 10/11 (from 4/5)
Cameron 11/10 (from 5/4)0 -
@GuidoFawkes: Looks like Ed is going to achieve his ambition of "One Nation Labour". Wales.0
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I don't think UKIP are a good fit for the Scottish Parliament yet. They're not particularly liked, and they don't have an established reputation for competence. I would imagine they are most attractive to Scottish voters at a European level, then at a UK level, and then at a Scottish Parliament level.anotherDave said:
If UKIP can get some MSPs at the next scottish parliament election (2016?) they can build from that.Pulpstar said:I doubt the new UKIP MEP has done UKIP any favours in Scotland - anyone who has seen him must think to themselves "Oh God, who have we just elected."
Scotland doesn't seem to have annual local elections, just one every x years. Next one 2017.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2012
There seem to be two classes of votes: constituency, and regional.Pulpstar said:Perhaps a reason UKIP are on 2% and not say 5% or so.
In the regional vote UKIP are around 5-8%. (in other polls)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2016#Regional_Vote_.28AMS.290 -
Well, that and the fact that he was playing the devout Jew at a party one evening, and guzzling on bacon sandwiches a couple of mornings later.Roger said:" Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
Maureen Lipman: I won't vote Labour while Ed's in charge"
......Because Ed supports a Palestinian homeland and voted for it as did an overwhelming number of members of the HoC of all parties.
He's tried to be all things to all people, and been caught out too often.0 -
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The good news for Ed of course is that the little Englanders in the Tory Party wont be able to say Labour lost in England and were only saved by Scottish votes because if this and other polls are correct Labour must be cruising it in England and Wales0
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I disagree. I truly think that what drives Scots to vote in Westminster elections is generally much the same as what makes people in the rest of the UK vote the way they do. (Obviously Scottish Parliament elections are a whole different kettle of fish.)Fenster said:The worrying thing for Labour re polls like this is that even replacing Miliband as leader probably won't affect the polls much in Scotland.
Miliband is dire but I guess only replacing him with a Scot would make them competitive against the SNP. That leaves only Darling, Murphy and Alexander. None of whom are in the running.
If Labour actually sorts out their problems at the UK level (the leadership, the complete lack of any policies that poor people and intellectual lefties would be inspired by) then I think most of the problems in Scotland would go away too.
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Scotland is like a supervolcano when it comes to polling.
It lies dormant for ages.
BUT WHEN IT BLOWS !0 -
From the DT
Bernard Ponsonby, STV’s political editor, said they were the “most dramatic poll findings ever to be published in Scotland” and underlined the scale of the challenge for Labour leaders north and south of the border.
He added: "There are only two polls in recent memory which have generated as much surprise, the most recent during the independence referendum showing the Yes camp ahead, and before that you'd probably have to go back to 1992 and a poll for ITN which showed support for independence at 50 per cent for the first time.”0 -
Not an expert of course, but if a 1% YouGov poll lead is a “morale boost” for Labour – I’d hazard a guess and say a poll showing a loss of 37 Labour MPs is not?0
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A case of EMICINPM?SimonStClare said:Not an expert of course, but if a 1% YouGov poll lead is a “moral boost” for Labour – I’d hazard a guess and say a poll showing a loss of 37 Labour MPs is not?
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They're losing in England, Roger. Three points down according to Ashcroft on Monday.Roger said:The good news for Ed of course is that the little Englanders in the Tory Party wont be able to say Labour lost in England and were only saved by Scottish votes because if this and other polls are correct Labour must be cruising it in England and Wales
Wales:
February 2013 Vote: 51%
September 2014 Vote: 38%
And that was before things really took a turn for the worse.0 -
Was this a phone poll?0
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Poor old Ed can join me for a Date, in my oasis of calm.0
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@Spectator_CH: From @alexmassie: Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland | http://t.co/IRID0r3O1S0
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Mr. Roger, that's like Baldrick solving the problem of his mother's low ceiling by cutting off her head.0
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The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm0
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Peal-off & send mock ballot papers attached to the back of Buckfast bottles.Alistair said:Was this a phone poll?
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Rogerdamus has spoken.Roger said:The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm
Scottish Tory Surge alert...0 -
Nice to see an article that points out that other post referedum Scottish polls haven't shown the same picture.Scott_P said:@Spectator_CH: From @alexmassie: Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland | http://t.co/IRID0r3O1S
Also mentions a YouGov Scottish poll coming soon which will be interesting.0 -
Why would it be a choice between them? They'd have the option of SNP MPs who, quite frankly, they could probably trust more to vote against Tory economic policies than they could trust Labour MPs.Roger said:The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm
The Labour "high command" have simply underestimated all along how unenthused their supposed '"core vote" was. The day they signed up to Tory austerity in summer 2013 was the day they killed off their chances in the election.0 -
What other (Scottish) post referendum polls ?Artist said:
Nice to see an article that points out that other post referedum polls haven't shown the same picture.Scott_P said:@Spectator_CH: From @alexmassie: Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland | http://t.co/IRID0r3O1S
Also mentions a YouGov Scottish poll coming soon which will be interesting.
There haven't been any. Or at least none I've seen on here.0 -
I tend to agree. A new right of centre force is needed north of the border -it's not the Tories, and sadly I'm not sure UKIP can fill the gap either.Roger said:The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm
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Pulpstar said:
What other (Scottish) post referendum polls ?Artist said:
Nice to see an article that points out that other post referedum polls haven't shown the same picture.Scott_P said:@Spectator_CH: From @alexmassie: Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland | http://t.co/IRID0r3O1S
Also mentions a YouGov Scottish poll coming soon which will be interesting.
There haven't been any. Or at least none I've seen on here.
Survation-LAB 39 SNP 35 CON 18
Panelbase-SNP 34 LAB 32 CON 18
http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table0 -
Near bottom of articleScott_P said:@Spectator_CH: From @alexmassie: Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland | http://t.co/IRID0r3O1S
"YouGov have also been polling in Scotland this week. We shall have a modestly clearer picture of the state of the nation when their numbers are released."0 -
Anyone know which the 4 Labour seats are supposed to be?0
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Ipsos Mori tables are out
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/PUBLIC SPOM Wave 22 Tabs - FINAL FOR WEBSITE GENERAL ELECTION.pdf
Skip to page 130 -
Bit busy at the moment but today I think I saw the post of the year... for it's utter deliciousness.
In response to this STV poll, our resident EICIPM correspondent who so delights in plugging in daily opinion polls to prove his point re a GE in May 2015, posted this terrible poll for Labour could be immediately ignored and discounted as things would be very different come the General Election.
I've been smiling at this interesting contradiction all through the client meeting this afternoon...
Wonderful stuff BJO!0 -
Roger said:
Anyone know which the 4 Labour seats are supposed to be?
If those tables are right, Glasgow should be an absolute shoo in for the SNP.Artist said:Ipsos Mori tables are out
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/PUBLIC SPOM Wave 22 Tabs - FINAL FOR WEBSITE GENERAL ELECTION.pdf
Skip to page 130 -
They'll try a third option. Like supporters of UKIP.Roger said:The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm
I don't honestly Labour performing this badly, but losing a dozen or so seats to the SNP seems realistic.
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And Jim Murphy would save the day too. Laugh a minute with the Owl.Scrapheap_as_was said:Bit busy at the moment but today I think I saw the post of the year... for it's utter deliciousness.
In response to this STV poll, our resident EICIPM correspondent who so delights in plugging in daily opinion polls to prove his point re a GE in May 2015, posted this terrible poll for Labour could be immediately ignored and discounted as things would be very different come the General Election.
I've been smiling at this interesting contradiction all through the client meeting this afternoon...
Wonderful stuff BJO!0 -
Suggestion for novelty bet: How many current SPL grounds to be in seats won by SNP in 2015?0
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Where are we at? As far as either of the 2 potential governments we have a coalition of centre-right and right of CON-UKIP-L/D and a coalition of left and centre left of LAB-SNP-PC-Green which tot up level WME.
Northern Ireland excluded from polling needs de-excluding to paint a picture of who are next government may be.
H/T antifrank-you flagged up the SNP move.I must admit to be astonished at just how right you were and reveals Labour's organic crisis in Scotland.It has been Pasokked.
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Err, no. Labour are behind the Tories in England in several polls.Roger said:The good news for Ed of course is that the little Englanders in the Tory Party wont be able to say Labour lost in England and were only saved by Scottish votes because if this and other polls are correct Labour must be cruising it in England and Wales
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With polls like this, we can play Fantasy HMG for ages.SandyRentool said:
Suggestion for novelty bet: How many current SPL grounds to be in seats won by SNP in 2015?
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@isaby: Wow. Is @Thomas_Docherty still a Labour frontbencher after this?!? http://t.co/XqCaQwigv3 http://t.co/0RchdiVMjm via @GuidoFawkes0
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Dont be ridiculous, Ed is many things but devout is not one of them nor has he ever claimed to be.TheWatcher said:
Well, that and the fact that he was playing the devout Jew at a party one eveningRoger said:" Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
Maureen Lipman: I won't vote Labour while Ed's in charge"
......Because Ed supports a Palestinian homeland and voted for it as did an overwhelming number of members of the HoC of all parties.0 -
@Sean_F
"I don't honestly Labour performing this badly ..."
Maybe a significant number of voters are waking up to the fact that they have always voted Labour but their lives don't get any better.0 -
@LabourList: Miliband dismisses Lamont's "branch office" claims in Daily Record interview http://labli.st/1tUFnqa0
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That gives me an excuse to post this - Glasgow East Downfall.Pulpstar said:0
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As a predictor of lifestyle - just look at Labour safe seats [well until they were invaded by Nats and Kippers]
And they remained safe for decades. I can understand Tory safe seats.HurstLlama said:@Sean_F
"I don't honestly Labour performing this badly ..."
Maybe a significant number of voters are waking up to the fact that they have always voted Labour but their lives don't get any better.0
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